As the 2024-25 men’s college basketball season unfolds, excitement builds for the upcoming NCAA tournament, set to kick off on March 16. With just about 40 days left until power conference tournaments commence, fans and teams alike are closely monitoring their standings as ESPN has launched its official Bubble Watch 2025.
This year’s breakdown of NCAA tournament hopefuls is based on a forecast model that simulates the remaining season 10,000 times, allowing for very detailed predictions. Currently, a total of 46 teams are in the bubble conversation. Teams are categorized based on their chances of making it to the tournament:
- Locks: 18 teams have been identified with at least a 95% chance of making the tournament. It’s important to note that even teams classified as locks could still miss out, as there’s a 5% chance they won’t make it.
- Should Be In: Another 18 teams fall into this category, boasting a probability of 70% to 94%. Their chances look pretty good, but they’re not entirely guaranteed yet.
- Work To Do: Finally, 28 teams are still fighting for their spots with odds ranging from 25% to 69%.
The Bubble Watch will be continuously updated as we get closer to Selection Sunday. The teams are categorized primarily by their respective conferences, ordered according to their projected NCAA bids. As teams continue competing, their records will solidify, leading to more accurate projections.
For basketball fans, this will be a thrilling season filled with nail-biting finishes and suspenseful moments as teams strive for a chance to compete for the championship. Expect updates regularly as the bubble fills and shrinks, leaving many teams holding their breath leading up to the March 16 announcement.
