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Week 11 NFL Picks

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Current record through Thursday night’s game comes out to: 80-52 (60.6%)

Indianapolis at Baltimore One of the biggest difference between this year’s Ravens team and last years team is the inability of the Ravens’ defense to establish it’s dominance on defense against opponents who can attack them multiple ways.  Their corners have underachieved, and Ed Reed is banged up and having a down year.  The Ravens will have no solution this week against Peyton Manning and the Colts, though you’ll definately see them win some battles.

Washington at Dallas Tony Romo has never really done much in this rivalry, as his best game against the Redskins came in 2007 when the Redskins defense was missing superstar safety Sean Taylor to a knee injury (Taylor, tragically, would never play again).  The Cowboys are in big trouble if Romo doesn’t have a big game against a struggling Redskins secondary who has soured on it’s most proven corner, Carlos Rogers.   I’m thinking the Cowboys will be victorious, but there could be long-term repercussions if they fail.

Cleveland at Detroit I’m picking the Detroit Lions because it’s hard to imagine any team being worse on offense than the Browns, but the Lions defense could end up as the goat of the game if they allow Brady Quinn to set his feet and throw accurate passes, it won’t be hard to establish an offensive rhythm that can systematically tear down a injured, not-good-to-begin-with Lions secondary, even for the Browns’ “weapons.”

San Francisco at Green Bay This is a pick that I’m swaying on, because one team (SF) rushes the passer really well, and the other team (GB) can’t protect the passer.  However, with Alex Smith starting for the Niners, you have to wonder just how poorly the Packers defense would need to play to let Frank Gore be the difference in this game.  I have to side with the Packers.

Buffalo at Jacksonville Dick Jauron, out as head coach of the Bills.  Perry Fewell, in.  Trent Edwards, out as quarterback of the Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick, in.  Maurice Jones-Drew will really make a big difference in this one as the Jags try to seperate themselves from the pack in the AFC.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Here’s the only team in the NFL who won’t actually be able to get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers should win by at least three touchdowns.

Seattle at Minnesota Minnesota really seems to play a bad team every week.  I don’t know if that means anything come playoff time, as they could/should secure a first round bye, pending how well they perform in divisional play against the Bears.  I don’t know if I’d like this team at home against, say, the Cardinals in the postseason.  However, first things first, the Vikings will handle the Seahawks at home fairly easily.

Atlanta at New York Giants With Matt Ryan continuing to struggle through his sophomore season with his accuracy and decision making, and Michael Turner slated to miss this game, the Giants figure to snap their four game losing streak at home.  With a little help from the Redskins this week, they will once again be the favorite in the NFC East.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay I think this week will end the Saints run at an undefeated season.  They are a very good football team, but unlike the Colts, they really don’t have a legitimate shot at 19-0 and a super bowl championship.  The Bucs are at home, and I think Josh Freeman has what it takes to knock the Saints from the ranks of the undefeated.

Arizona at St. Louis I’ll go with another upset this week, and say that the Rams will beat the Cards at home by hitting Kurt Warner early and often.  Stephen Jackson is having a great year, and quietly, the OL of the Rams is greatly improved.

San Diego at Denver It’s hard for me to see Denver fixing everything that is wrong with their team in one-week, especially in a week where Kyle Orton wasn’t able to practice.  This team has been largely exposed in the last few weeks, and they still have a lot of building to do before the become one of the leagues’ elite.  The good news is that: if they can beat the Chargers this game, they might get some meaningful playoff experience for their young talent, even if they are an afterthought once they are there.

New York Jets at New England Part of me wants to think that the Jets are getting a really raw deal here before this game, as they already beat the Patriots once this year, and that they are being treated like a homecoming opponent for the Patriots in the media.  Then I see that the Jets are 1-5 since week four, and probably should be treated like such a team.

Cincinnati at Oakland One team that will never need to worry about being unfairly underrated is the Oakland Raiders, as the Cincinnati Bengals have shown that they are a multi-faceted football team who wins games above all.

Philadelphia at Chicago These are two franchises who are on a losing-type slide that threatens their entire collective season, and it’s not hard to predict based on history that Donovan McNabb and the Eagles will answer the bell, while Jay Cutler and the Bears will watch from home this January.

Tennessee at Houston If Houston can end the Titans three game winning streak, and put to rest a miracle playoff run from this Titans team (and who knows what to expect if they move to 4-6), it’s probably safe to conclude that the Texans are for real.  The key will be taking away Vince Young.  Yep, that’s correct: even with Chris Johnson averaging better that 6 YPC, it’s Young that can’t have a good day if the Texans expect to be legitimate.  Young is on film now, and oh by the way, the Texans have had two weeks to look at his film.  If coach Gary Kubiak has any value as a head coach, his team will exploit some of Young’s undisciplined tendencies and win big.

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