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New York Jets (projected finish: 8-8)

Team synopsis: A great defense plus a second year franchise quarterback plus a future hall of fame rusher equals…pretty much the same type of year as last season.  For a team like the Colts, Saints, or Vikings, the lack of player movement is absolutely to the benefit of the power team.  But it’s worth pointing out that while the Jets have the swagger of a NFL power, they were a mediocre team in the regular season last year, and failed to get to the super bowl against a three-team slate far easier than the one the cross town Giants put down to reach the title game three years ago.  More equations: a middling team plus the swagger of a great team equals a hard fall.

Best Players

• WR Jericho Cotchery (drafted — N.C. State/2004 4th round pick)
• TE Dustin Keller (drafted — Purdue/2008 1st round pick)
• LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (drafted — Virginia/2006 1st round pick)
• C Nick Mangold (drafted — Ohio State/2006 1st round pick)
• LB Bart Scott (signed — Baltimore/2009 free agent)
• LB David Harris (drafted — Michigan/2007 2nd round pick)
• CB Darrelle Revis (drafted — Pitt/2007 1st round pick)

Best Prospects

• QB Mark Sanchez (drafted — USC/2009 1st round pick)
• RB Shonn Greene (drafted — Iowa/2009 3rd round pick)
• LG Vladimir Ducasse (drafted — UMass/2010 2nd round pick)
• CB Kyle Wilson (drafted — Boise State/2010 1st round pick)

While the Jets are a more talented team than they would appear based on the brevity of the amount of “best” players on them, I think it’s important to understand how well a team that in the last three years hasn’t had most of it’s late round picks needs to do with it’s six “top 65″ selections.  The highest drafted player of the six was Vernon Gholston.  He’s moved to the defensive line in a last ditch attempt to resurrect his career.  While Dustin Keller had a breakout season and playoff run in 2009, he may not even be the best TE from his draft class, as John Carlson’s 2008 was the best of the four seasons between them.  The jury is still out, but the last thing a team like the Jets can afford is a luxury TE who wasn’t the best performer available at his own position.

And then the rest of those picks are still unproven.  I think Kyle Wilson has the best upside of the four prospects on the Jets, he should thrive in their system and especially so if Darrelle Revis gets a long term extension done to play across from him.  But as excited as I am about the Wilson pick, prospects like Sanchez, Ducasse, and Greene aren’t particularly great college players now trying to make the jump to the next level.

Sanchez and Greene have similar flaws, in that both built their draft resumes entirely on the strength of their 2008 seasons, and then last year, neither made a particularly meaningful contribution prior to the playoffs.  They both did the most with their opportunities there: Thomas Jones wore down, paving the way for Greene to carry the load, and Sanchez took advantage of defenses ignoring him in their gameplans to execute his position to the best of his ability.  Of course, Ryan Leaf, Curtis Enis, and JaMarcus Russell all strung together really good two game stretches in their careers.

LaDainian Tomlinson should complement Greene’s skill set well.  Tomlinson is expected to be used as a third down back and receiver out of the backfield.  Behind them, a fourth round pick from USC, Joe McKnight.  The conundrum with USC players on film — that everyone looks great — could work out well for the Jets, with McKnight coming over in the fourth round.  I’m higher on his future than on Greene’s.

A lot will be made about the receivers on the Jets this year.  Jericho Cotchery has kind of been pushed to the back burner with big name acquisitions Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes in the fold, but this is a bad passing offense without Cotchery’s presence and run after catch ability.  Holmes likely provides an upgrade on Edwards — at least once he’s eligible to return after Week 4 — but if they have to play together, any version of a cover two defense should take away most elements of the Jets passing game.  Then it would fall to Keller to work over the linebacker level and give Sanchez a place to go with the football.  But it should be apparent how defensive coverages could actually make Edwards and Holmes hurt each others numbers.  Lavaerneus Coles will play the third receiver role until Holmes is eligible.

Sanchez has a great offensive line to protect him, but the controversial call to replace Alan Faneca with Ducasse suggest that the Jets are going to pass to win this year, because if they were going to run and play action, having an under-contract Faneca is a pretty important cornerstone of that decision.  That, and the release of Thomas Jones suggest that they aren’t looking for a workhorse back so much as they want big plays out of the passing game.

Nick Mangold is about as good as it gets at sorting protections and blocking opposing noses, and D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Damian Woody really flourished as a tackle tandem for the first time last year.  Brandon Moore is the unquestioned starting RG, but only unquestioned because the Jets have a good thing going on the OL, and he’s part of it.  He’s hardly an indispensable part.  Obviously, the pressure will be on Ducasse to perform from the first day, as if anything goes wrong on the OL, he’s the first in line to be blamed by the tabloids.

The real embodiment of Rex Ryan on the field is the defense that he and Mike Pettine call.  And the pressure they get is really all about the calls, as the team is strong in the interior, behind NT Kris Jenkins are rangy, explosive linebackers David Harris and Bart Scott.  Then, of course, there’s Revis.  Or there would be, if Revis and the Jets could settle a contract dispute that is officially a holdout.  The Jets are also strong behind Revis, where FA pickups Jim Leonhard (2009) and Brodney Pool (2010) give them a pair of fast, smart cover safeties.  The second corner was a weakness last year, and so it was addressed via trade with Antonio Cromartie (probably not a solution to the problem), and with the pick of Wilson.  But if this Revis holdout lasts into the season, corner becomes a greater weakness than it was last year.

Outside of those strengths, the Jets really do have a lot of spots on the defense that they try to cover with by scheme and confusion.  Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace are a good, but not great, set of outside linebackers.  To those guys, the Jets added Jason Taylor from Miami, who is best known now for being old.  I fail to see where he upgrades the Jets pass rush.  Taylor can still beat a one on one, and isn’t a bad pickup for depth, but he’s not an upgrade over either Thomas or Pace.

The Jets have a better DL than a lot of people give them credit for — Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha, specifically, had good years last year — but this is a group that needs Kris Jenkins for sustained success.  Jenkins missed the second half of last year with a knee injury, but reports this year have him healthy.

Defenses like the Jets — first overall last year by pretty much any measure — tend to regress the next year, but usually into the 7-10 range, and not usually to league average.  If you look at the last eight number one NFL defenses, and look at their finishes in the next season, you have a very wide range of results, but the two median regressions are actually the two Rex Ryan Baltimore defenses that finished first in the league.  Both finished 6th the next year.  Therefore, that would be a pretty reasonable expectation for Ryan’s defense this year.

And I’m not sure how much it matters if Revis returns.  If he’s in the lineup, teams are going to respond by throwing away from him.  He was targeted over 90 times last season.  I can’t imagine he’s ever going to get more than 60 looks in any season the rest of his career.  If Revis isn’t in the lineup, targets will be split between Wilson and Cromartie.

Of course, once Wilson develops into a quality NFL corner, having Revis will make all the difference.  The Jets figure to be a great defensive team for the forseeable future, with the ability to get unblocked rushers on quarterbacks and shut down the deep passing game with merely a single high safety.  Yes, the Jets probably still need to add that safety, and a pass rushing stud and more beef on the DL wouldn’t hurt.  But we know the Jets defense will get there, eventually.  They just need to have more than one pick in three years to spend on the defense.

The offense, however, needs to excel with the parts it already has, and frankly, I’m not sure they have the right parts.  They had the best OL in the league last year — you can’t get any better than they had — and finished rated -9.0% in DVOA last season.  Sanchez and Grenne might very well improve, and it may not matter.  There’s no reason to think that either Mike Tannenbaum or Rex Ryan knows how to build an offense.  O.C. Brian Schottenheimer is well-respected, but has never built a custom-system for scratched.  Building a respectable group that has to hide it’s quarterback and building a great unit from scratch are both impressive feats, but there’s little overlap between them.

The Jets will probably struggle on offense again this year, and the defense is unlikely to be dominant enough to save them.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

The Jets brought in Mark Brunell to be the backup quarterback, so the question now becomes whether Kellen Clemens has a future with the organization.  Clemens was a strong prospect coming out of Oregon, but saw his only real shot at the starting job fizzle behind poor play in 2007.  If he can remain on the third string this year, he’s well liked to warrant consideration as the backup next year (when Sanchez could very well be on the hot seat), but his contract expires and certainly, the Jets are under no obligation to bring him back.  That goes for this year, too.

Wither Danny Woodhead?  The player with more rushing yards than any player in the history of college football overcame longshot odds to make last years Jets, but did so as a receiver, not a runner.  He’s a runner again in the preseason — because preseason football is all about having the clock run — but this time there might not be a spot at receiver to keep him.  He’s really not a bad fourth runner, I promise, but that does seem like his NFL upside.

It’s likely that the Jets will carry six receivers into the season, with Holmes inactive for the first four games.  Brad Smith will likely make the team, but David Clowney will have to show well to hold his spot.  Aundrae Allison is the primary competition.

Ben Hartsock is somehow still a no. 2 TE in the NFL.  He has one skill: that he can pass block outside linebackers.  That’s a good skill in the AFC East, since every team plays a 3-4.  3rd OT Wayne Hunter is effectively the third TE on the Jets, so there’s no need to keep 3 TEs.

Matt Slauson was a good find in camp last year as a backup guard, and he’ll be Brandon Moore’s backup.  That’s 7 lineman, with Slauson and Hunter.  The Jets really do give undrafted lineman a chance to make the team every year, but even if they keep just eight, they may have to go get a veteran to backup at Center.

The Jets will likely keep just seven defensive lineman, which includes DE Vernon Gholston because, well, they basically already paid for this season in his rookie signing bonus.  Keeping him at a salary around $1 million is hardly a decision.  Next year, keeping him gets pricey.  Rodrique Wright and Ropati Pitoitua are the primary backups to Shaun Ellis and DeVito.

The Jets just don’t have much proven depth at any position.  Lance Laury will return as a special teamer and backup ILB.  But Taylor and Laury are it for proven depth.  The Jets will keep anywhere between 2 and 3 additional LBs.  Dwight Lowery is taking is demotion in stride, now really fighting to hold off Drew Coleman to be the dime back.  Undrafted rookie Donovan Warren has a good chance to make the team at safety.  If he shows well enough, the team can either move James Ihedigbo, or they can keep five safeties.  Ihedigbo is valuable on special teams, and that’s an obvious weakness throughout the Jets roster.

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Packers, Bears.

Houston Texans (projected finish: 8-8)

Team synopsis: Gary Kubiak returns for his fifth season as Texans head coach, desperate to get his team to the playoffs.  The Texans have won 25 games in the last three years.  That’s sixth best in the AFC over that timeframe, which means that they’ve “averaged” a playoff berth per year since 2007.   Only, you know, the Texans have never been to the postseason.  Ever.  That probably won’t change this year, though if talent develops on both sides of the ball, the Texans could really light up the win totals in 2011 and 2012, under a new coach, one would think.

Best Players

• QB Matt Schaub (trade — Atlanta/2007 & 2008 2nd round picks)
• WR Andre Johnson (drafted — Miami/2003 1st round pick)
• WR Kevin Walter (signed — Cincinnati/2006 restricted free agent)
• TE Owen Daniels (drafted — Wisconsin/2006 4th round pick)
• RT Eric Winston (drafted — Miami/2006 3rd round pick)
• DE Mario Williams (drafted — N.C. State/2006 1st round pick)
• DT Amobi Okoye (drafted — Louisville/2007 1st round pick)
• LB Demeco Ryans (drafted — Alabama/2006 2nd round pick)
• LB Brian Cushing (drafted — USC/2009 1st round pick)
• SS Bernard Pollard (signed — Kansas City/2009 waiver claim)

Best Prospects

• RB Arian Foster (signed — Tennessee/2009 undrafted free agent)
• WR Jacoby Jones (drafted — Lane/2007 3rd round pick)
• RG Antoine Caldwell (drafted — Alabama/2009 3rd round pick)
• DE/LB Connor Barwin (drafted — Cincinnati/2009 2nd round pick)
• CB Kareem Jackson (drafted — Alabama/2010 1st round pick)
• CB Glover Quin (drafted — New Mexico/2009 4th round pick)
• FS Dominique Barber (drafted — Minnesota/2008 6th round pick)

The Texans have made progress every year since they finished with the worst record in the league in 2005, and hired Gary Kubiak as head coach.  Progress is good.  You’d easily find 6 or 7 NFL franchises who envy the work done by a team that didn’t make the postseason in any of it’s four seasons under Kubiak, and never in any of its eight seasons as a pro franchise.  Of course, those are the franchises who also haven’t been to the postseason since Kubiak became an NFL head coach: Oakland, Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo, Detroit, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

24 other teams have found their way into the postseason in the same timeframe.  Only Buffalo and Detroit have a playoff drought stretching longer than the Texans’ January-less existence.  And so we have to frame incremental progress in it’s proper context: even long-maligned franchises like the Bengals, Jets, Redskins, and Cardinals have performed better than the Texans in Kubiak’s tenure.  Progress has kept the Texans from being a laughingstock like the Raiders, but the result has been the same.   In some ways, their plight has been worse.  The Texans have been skilled enough to make the postseason each of the last three years, and there’s no other way to put it besides that they have failed each time.

So the idea that the incremental progress will continue and lead the Texans to the postseason in 2010 with the franchises’ first ten win season is based more in pattern building practice than understanding what is really happening in Houston.

There’s talent abound here.  Too much talent to think that the Texans could be headed for a five or six win season: such a year would be an epic breakdown in both offensive and defensive coaching, and would need to be combined with a historically awful season in field goal kicking where the Texans lose a bunch of close games due to these failures.  No, the Texans might not be a playoff contender, but certainly they aren’t a team that will feature double digit losses either.  What this looks like is another team that will win a game for every one it loses, more because of Kubiak than in spite of him.

The Texans should overcome the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who signed with the Redskins after his contract expired.  The players who he trained in Kubiak’s system are all still in town, and I do not expect any sort of per-play drop-off from quarterback Matt Schaub, or his receivers.  Andre Johnson has led the Texans in receiving every year of his career, and would unquestionably be the most recognizable face in the history of the franchise, even as he gets overshadowed by brash, loudmouth prima donas at his position.  Jacoby Jones is absolutely in play to emerge as a dynamic second target, where veteran Kevin Walter would hardly be displaced by such a development.

A three base WR set seems inevitable in Houston because Owen Daniels is returning from an ACL injury that cost him the second half of the 2009 season.  While Daniels returns, the Texans are watching running backs falling like flies.  2nd round pick Ben Tate will miss the year with a fractured ankle.  Last year’s starter, Steve Slaton, had a cervical vertebrae fusion procedure in the offseason, which all but forces him into a part time role, and then he fumbled on the goal line in the teams first preseason game.  Slaton has a severe fumble tendency, which makes him a third down back going forward.  That means Arian Foster, an undrafted rookie from Tennessee in 2009, is now a feature back in the truest sense of the term.  Chris Henry, formerly of Arizona by way of the Titans, will likely win Tate’s spot on the roster, but he’s about as incomplete a back as will ever get taken in the second round of the draft.  Running fast in a straight line is his only skill.

Granted, the Texans are at pretty good hands at RB in future seasons, which is one reason they won’t make a move, but with no backs who are good in pass protection, and a need to throw the ball more to make up for a limited running game, the passing offense will suffer.  Notice above, I said the per-play production would be unaffected for many players, including Matt Schaub.  That remains true, but Schaub made it through 656 QB plays last year (runs, sacks, pass attempts).  A more limited offense in terms of balance that runs through Schaub means more stress on the offensive line, and many more targets on Schaub by opposing pass rushers.  It would not be the world’s gutsiest prediction to predict that 40-90 of those QB plays might be made by Schaub’s backup Dan Orlovsky.  And while the Texans don’t have any obvious injury risks among the receivers, perhaps it wouldn’t be wise to expect Johnson, Jones, Walter, and Daniels to make it through 16 game seasons.  Fortunately, there is fantastic depth at this position.

There is less depth up front, where most of the pressure is this season.  Incremental progress would be a nice gift from LT Duane Brown, who improved greatly in his second season — and still might not have been one of the 25 best LTs in football.  Next stop: middle of the pack!  Or so the Texans hope, with Schaub’s blind side at stake.  Eric Winston, on the other hand, is one of the best right tackles in all of football.  If David Stewart of the Titans is the premier RT in football, and Baltimore’s Jared Gaither is the best displaced LT playing on the right side, certainly Eric Winston is in that discussion.  RG Antonie Caldwell is a heady player who could be a stud at the guard position for years, beginning now.  Chris Myers is a smart Center who sorts protections well, but can get overpowered by the best nose tackles in football.  The AFC South is a pretty good place for his skill set.  At left guard will be Kasey Studdard, or Wade Smith, or someone; I’m sure they won’t start just four offensive linemen.

Gary Kubiak doesn’t do much on the defensive side except authorize decisions made by defensive coordinator Frank Bush, so this is the side of the ball that could save the Texans’ playoff hopes by exceeding all expectations.  A top ten defense puts the Texans in the playoffs for the first time in their history.  A defense ranked lower than that probably allows too many big plays to make a difference.

The front seven is the biggest strength.  There’s an underlying strength here besides the players: more than half of the teams in the NFL now play a variation of the 3-4 defense.  That means the availability and cost of players who fit best in a 4-3 scheme are at an all-time high/low respectively.  It’s not a coincidence that the Texans were able to add in-the-box players like S Bernard Pollard, DE Antonio Smith, and DT Shaun Cody at hardly any cost to the team.

The Texans really like their defensive personnel, though it’s best players are still highly-drafted, home-grown talent.  DE Mario Williams, the first overall pick in 2006, Amobi Okoye, the 10th overall pick in 2007, and Brian Cushing, the 15th overall pick in 2009, join 2006 2nd rounder Demeco Ryans on a defense that has so many versatile parts that you just have to hope they can turn it into results for the first time this year.

Two problems.  First: Cushing isn’t eligible to play in the first four weeks (Colts, Redskins, Cowboys, Raiders) [ouch].  Second: the back three really isn’t as strong as the front eight.  You could argue that the secondary, aside from Pollard, is a downright weakness.  Plenty of options to use here: CBs Jacques Reeves, Glover Quin, Brice McCain, and rookie Kareem Jackson are your top four.  Reeves is likely to start at one corner, and get picked on.  Quin or Jackson should start at the other, with McCain as the nickel.

I think it would be good for the team if Dominique Barber the first (Marion’s bro) could win the free safety job, because he’s the most physically talented of the bunch.  He’s going to have to beat out the incumbent, Eugene Wilson.  Wilson has never been a bad player, but taken out of the Pats defense, he’s too obvious a target for quarterbacks, and the Texans (who do a lot right under Frank Bush) do not do much to disguise their coverages and protect their secondary, instead relying on their pass rush to make game changing plays.  The Texans are very deep at corner, but can’t really do anything fancy to take away opponents no. 1 receivers.  That’s why Jackson was drafted, but his development will take some time.

One thing to watch is a the usage of Connor Barwin as a weak-side stand-up pass rusher in Cushing’s absence.  This is a wrinkle that the Texans’ opponents will have to be prepared for.

I have brought Gary Kubiak’s game management skills into question over the last three years many times.  There’s little doubt he can draw up some of the best offensive gameplans in the game, but then again, so could Jim Zorn.  Last week, in the preseason, the Texans had the ball on the fringe of field goal range down by three points with ten seconds in the game and no timeouts.  Maybe to see what his offense could do under the pressure, or to test the mettle of 3rd QB John David Booty, the Texans offense stayed on the field for one more play.  Booty took a three step drop, and crumbled under the pressure of a predictable double A-gap blitz from the Arizona Cardinals, ending the game without a tying FG attempt.  This after Bush’s third string defense gave away a 16-0 lead in the fourth quarter.

The outcome is meaningless in the preseason.  But Kubiak’s inability to prepare the players who care about preseason outcomes the most to deal with even the most obvious situational variables (pass blocking, pre-snap reads, not taking sacks to end games) speaks to a team wide problem that the Texans either come out and torch the opponent from the first snap, or they get into shootout with inferior teams often hungrier and smarter than they are.  This is going to happen to the Texans in the regular season as well, so you might as well plan for it now.

They can get to 8, or perhaps 9 wins again, but the Texans best chance to make the postseason involves Peyton Manning missing some games.  The last time that happened, the Houston franchise played as something called the “Oilers”.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Houston has just three quarterbacks in camp, and is unlikely to keep that many, as John David Booty likely does not make the final cut.

Wide receiver is a major crunch for the Texans, who could justify keeping up to seven of them (six actual receivers, one return specialist).  There are five veterans that all play at a high level, including David Anderson and Andre Davis.  Then the team drafted an undersized tight end out of Pitt, Dorin Dickerson, and converted him to a receiver to get a major match-up advantage for those crafty gameplans.  They need a spot for him, and holding six receivers is probably the answer.  But then there’s specialist Trindon Holliday, drafted in the sixth round to help break games open.  I’m thinking that David Anderson could be the one whose roster spot is in danger, if Holliday proves indispensable.  As of this time, nothing he’s done in the preseason or camp has been particularly impressive or deserving of a roster spot.

The Texans will probably keep four TEs, under the idea that James Casey plays both TE and FB in some formations.  Joel Dreessen started a half season last year, but with the selection of Wisconsin TE Garrett Graham, his roster spot is somewhere in between in jeopardy, and good as gone.  Then 2009 draft pick, Anthony Hill and Derek Fine have a camp battle for the role of specific short-yardage and goal line TE.  Hill is too good of a blocker to let go at this point, I think.

Houston can’t afford to keep 4 backup interior lineman, and with Wade Smith (who can play all five positions) active every game as a sixth lineman (assumes he doesn’t win LG job), they really don’t need to.  That means for three guys, 6th round pick Shelly Smith, last years RG Mike Brisel, and backup C Chris White, there’s just two spots on the OL.  Rashad Butler will be the third offensive tackle behind Winston and Duane Brown.

Relief for Okoye and Cody on the interior comes in the form of third round pick Earl Mitchell.  Behind him, DelJuan Robinson and Frank Okam battle for the fourth — and likely final — DT spot.  Keeping six DEs, including the versatile Barwin, would not be shocking.  The team added DE James Wyche when Ben Tate went on IR, and Wyche could impress in the remaining preseason games.  Tim Jamison is a useful pass rusher, formerly of Michigan.  Adding a veteran here is a possibility, as the Texans prefer an aggressive DL rotation.  Xavier Adibi will be tasked with replacing Cushing in the lineup for four games, nominally at least, teams still use more 3 WR sets (and defenses more nickel) than conventional defensive wisdom accounts for.  Danny Clark remains on the roster bubble, as he probably won’t be the backup MLB, and if he makes the roster, it might just be as a player to fill a hole for four weeks until Cushing returns.  Darryl Sharpton, a fourth round pick, has performed well in camp and should be the first backup to Demeco Ryans.

Fred Bennett finds himself very much on the bubble, two years removed from a stellar rookie season that few remember as he has mastered the “trail and watch” cover skill since then.  Sherrick McManis is a nice find out of a stout Northwestern defense in the fifth round, and could be either a fifth corner or a fourth safety.  Antwaun Molden was a third round pick two years ago, and the team likely is less done with him than with Bennett.  Still, beating Molden might be the only chance Bennett has to make it.  That, or learn to hit someone as a safety, big guy.

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Packers.

Chicago Bears (projected finish: 8-8)

Team synopsis: It’s different in Chicago, these days.  The attempt to bring Jay Cutler in to an established offense and have him save their passing game was poorly scripted from the beginning.  Cutler took a campfire of burning plays and threw kerosene on them.  He also set a career high in TD passes, so it wasn’t all bad.  Enter Mike Martz to help Cutler bring a new era of Bears football, one where a passing game isn’t just something that is inconveniencing the defense.  Cutler has young, talented receivers to help him, and a young offensive line that will require his help.  It’s hard to worry about an offense in such good hands, especially when it’s flaws are so understood (Cutler will throw a fair share of INTs, Martz will not care).

Best Players

• QB Jay Cutler (trade — Denver/2009 & 2010 1st round, 2009 3rd round picks, QB Kyle Orton)
• C Olin Kreutz (drafted — Washington/1998 3rd round pick)
• DE Julius Peppers (signed — Carolina/2010 free agent)
• LB Lance Briggs (drafted — Arizona/2003 3rd round pick)
• LB Brian Urlacher (drafted — New Mexico/2000 1st round pick)
• CB Charles Tillman (drafted — UL-Lafayette/2003 2nd round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Johnny Knox (drafted – Abilene Christian/2009 6th round pick)
• WR Earl Bennett (drafted — Vanderbilt/2008 3rd round pick)
• LT Chris Williams (drafted — Vanderbilt/2008 1st round pick)
• RG Lance Louis (drafted — San Diego State/2009 7th round pick)
• DE Corey Wooton (drafted — Northwestern/2010 4th round pick)
• CB Zack Bowman (drafted — Nebraska/2008 5th round pick)
• S Al Alfalava (drafted — Oregon State/2009 6th round pick)

The first true Martz project will be to finish the development of Devin Hester into a NFL receiver.  The Bears drafted Hester without any real plan for him, then tried him on returns and received two of the greatest return seasons in NFL history.  He started at corner, converted to receiver in his second year, and though he was inserted into the starting lineup in 2008, he pretty much could run just two routes at the time.  The strides Hester made between 2008 and 2009 in Ron Turner’s offense can not be understated: he was not the most explosive Bears receiver last year, but he was the best.

Turner’s system is about as stripped down as NFL offense gets before it becomes a college offense, which is where Turner had his best days as a coach: about ten years ago at the University of Illinois.  Martz’ offense is a little bit more complicated, terminology-wise, and has a lot more depth.  Martz thinks Hester can be his number one target this year, but it’s going to require a similar jump in the understanding of an NFL offense as he made last year.

Johnnie Knox is probably a more realistic target to develop into the Bears’ top overall receiver.  Few players in the entire league are smoother in and out of routes as Knox is.  His numbers last year are weighed down by a limited understanding of his quarterback, as Knox got open, and Cutler threw, but they rarely connected enough.  Earl Bennett isn’t a great scheme fit, but is by far the most dependable receiver for Cutler.  As the Bears passing game gains dimension, Bennett will begin to play a larger role.  This means that Devin Aromashadu could be the odd man out, but even he, as a fourth receiver, could make a difference on third downs and in the red zone.

Just as interesting is the game that will be played with the tight ends.  The Bears have four worth keeping.  Brandon Manumaleuna is the starter, because the scheme calls for a blocking tight end in the singleback formations that Martz prefers.  The three other receivers are variable, meaning that Greg Olsen can still be a starter in this offense, if he’s more dynamic out of the slot than Bennett is early in the season.  Two TE sets will likely mean Desmond Clark and Manumaleuna in the game at the same time, giving the Bears a powerful outside running front, and an excellent formation to take deep shots out of.  The team also has Kellen Davis, who could be an odd man out, but could also force the Bears to keep four TEs.  Davis is the only one of the four who plays special teams.  Eddie Williams, a 2009 draft choice of the Redskins, is the team’s lone fullback.  He could be cut in order to make room for Davis.

Clearly, this Bears offense has more dimension than it has ever had in the team’s history (Refrigerator Perry at FB doesn’t count as “dimension”), and Martz is exactly the guy you want to give those options to.  Aside from Brandon Manumaleuna, Martz also brought in Chester Taylor from Minnesota.  Taylor has the Matt Forte skill set, which if nothing else, puts pressure on Matt Forte to perform.  The Bears running game remains a question mark.  The offensive line struggles to open holes for Forte, who struggles to get through them.  You know the Mike Martz solution to the problem: stop running.  The Bears would benefit from a RB no. 3 who excels at rushing the football above all.  Well, that and special teams.

Ultimately, Cutler is now responsible for what happens with this offense.  He has weapons, and the protection will be better.  The Bears invested in him not just once (with draft choices), but twice ($20 million extension), so they really need to see some return on that investment — otherwise the people who gave Cutler so much of their effort will pay the price for it.  Tools aren’t his issue, but Cutler has not been one to show he can win shootouts or defensive struggles.

It wouldn’t kill a team to give Jay Cutler a defense.  The Bears have more big names on this defense than they’ve had on any prior defense.  Tommie Harris. Julius Peppers. Brian Urlacher. Lance Briggs.  To show for it, they have a defense that has declined every year since a super bowl season in 2006.  Peppers has the ability to take over games, as does Urlacher, but on average, Peppers/Mark Anderson isn’t a significant upgrade over the Wale Ogunleye/Alex Brown duo the Bears already had.  Peppers can rush the passer well, but he can’t be the team’s pass rush all by himself.  Maybe Harris can help.  He hasn’t been the same player since 2006.  The Bears aren’t much of a pressure defense, though Brian Urlacher’s complete skill set allows him to go after quarterbacks with all-important A-gap pressure.  Still, LE could be a major weakness on this defense.

As weak as that position on the line could be, all three linebacker positions will be a strength.  Nick Roach is a very underrated player, and Pisa Tinoisamoa is great depth at both OLB positions (plays better as strong side).  If Urlacher stays healthy for a whole year, the Bears will start three quality linebackers every week, in more or less any other injury scenario.

Zack Bowman, Charles Tillman, and Al Alfalava are three of four pieces of a strong secondary.  Free safety could be an issue all year long.  Major Wright and Danieal Manning are battling for the job in camp.  Chris Harris, back after two seasons in Carolina, should serve as the dime back and a package substitute for Alfalava.  That’s four safeties right there who are likely to make the team, usually a roster’s full.  This team also returns Craig Steltz and Josh Bullocks.  An injury to Steltz in the first preseason game could be an unfortunate way to solve a problem many teams would love to have, as the team likes Bullocks’ contributions on special teams.

Coverage is the biggest issue among corners in the secondary.  Charles Tillman and Zack Bowman are the best cover corners in the group.  Both can be had deep.  Tim Jennings offers some quickness in the slot, but he’s not a great cover guy.  Corey Graham has improved drastically since 2008, and still isn’t even average.  A pair of Moore’s; second year D.J. and rookie Joshua, are in the mix here as fifth corners.  Jennings and Graham are both on the bubble.

The cover-two scheme that emphasizes the safeties in coverage is the Bears’ greatest defense against a weak group of corners.  If a couple of rangy safeties emerge to confound quarterbacks, Peppers could have one heck of a year rushing the passer.  If not, the Bears investment in him could be wasted on a defense that is poor, overall.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

First hand reports out of Bears camp suggest that 6th round QB Dan Lefevour is really struggling.  Caleb Hanie, the Bears backup last season, is injured and is an IR candidate.  With Lefevour unable to prove competitive for the backup role, the Bears have extended offers to veteran QBs Todd Collins (last team: Redskins), and Damon Huard (last team: 49ers).

About that third RB situation: the team loves Garrett Wolfe on special teams.  Kahlil Bell is probably a better runner than Wolfe.  Former Michigan runner Brandon Minor could prove an interesting wild card, with a new offensive coach having little loyalty to last years’ runners.

For the back end of the roster of receivers: Rashied Davis is the proven special teamer.  Juaquin Iglesias is a 3rd round pick from a year ago who just looks like a classic overdraft.  That overdraft could keep him on the roster another year, but likely not at the expense of Davis, a favorite of special teams coach Dave Toub.

The Bears have been working former Atlanta & Cleveland OT Kevin Shaffer on the interior for the first time in his career.  Last years starting LG, Frank Omiyale, is with the first team offense at RT.  Then, longtime RG Roberto Garza is going to switch sides and play the left guard.  He will be replaced by 2009 7th round pick Lance Louis.  Omiyale’s hold on the RT position is tenuous, mostly due to talent deficiency.  The second team RT is James Marten, former Cowboy backup.  The best backup the Bears have is Josh Beekman, who has been working exclusively as the no. 2 Center in training camp.  In practicality, he’s likely the backup LG as well, although Garza has little injury history, and the team is high on Johan Asiata, and other players you’ve never heard of.  This year’s 7th round pick, J’Marcus Webb (West Texas A&M), will play behind LT Chris Williams if he makes it.  If not, I’d imagine that Kevin Shaffer has those duties.

Jarron Gilbert, who can jump out of pools, you know, will work exclusively at the 3-technique behind Tommie Harris.  Anthony Adams will start at the 1-technique, and Marcus Harrison will back him up.  The quality depth at DT allows them to keep five or more ends.  With Corey Wooton behind Julius Peppers right now, either Henry Melton or Maurice Evans could make the Bears at DE.

Hunter Hillenmeyer’s best chance to remain a Bear involves securing himself as the backup MLB behind Urlacher.  Because the Bears may only hold six LBs, Hillenmeyer could be a late release, with Brian Iwuh, Tim Shaw, and Kelvin Smith all in the mix for two spots, with Hillenmeyer.

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Green Bay Packers (projected finish: 7-9)

Team synopsis: A very talented — but just as young — Packer team is still quite reliant on a few players such as QB Aaron Rodgers, CB Charles Woodson, LB Clay Matthews, and WR Greg Jennings.  But it may be just as reliant on an offensive line this year that struggles to protect Rodgers, and on Rodgers himself to make better use of the pocket on plays where it’s actually there.  Rodgers/McCarthy is as good of a bet as any to be the next formidable QB/QB guru duo in NFL annals, but I do think there will be a 2010 sized bump in the road before they get there.

Best Players

• QB Aaron Rodgers (drafted — Cal/2005 1st round pick)
• WR Greg Jennings (drafted — Western Michigan/2006 2nd round pick)
• WR Donald Driver (drafted — Alcorn State/1999 7th round pick)
• TE Jermichael Finley (drafted — Texas/2008 3rd round pick)
• DE Ryan Pickett (signed — St. Louis/2006 free agent)
• LB Clay Matthews (drafted — USC/2009 1st round pick)
• LB Nick Barnett (drafted — Oregon State/2003 1st round pick)
• CB Charles Woodson (signed — Oakland/2006 free agent)
• FS Nick Collins (drafted — Bethune-Cookman/2005 2nd round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Jordy Nelson (drafted — Kansas State/2008 2nd round pick)
• OT Brian Bulaga (drafted — Iowa/2010 1st round pick)
• RG Josh Sitton (drafted — UCF/2008 4th round pick)
• NT B.J. Raji (drafted — Boston College/2009 1st round pick)
• LB Brad Jones (drafted — Colorado/2009 7th round pick)

More on Rodgers: even the Packers didn’t feel like he was capable of numbers like this prior to the 2008 season.  They felt like they needed to find out; you might not remember a time where Brett Favre’s inability to successfully retire actually hurt his team, but the Packers couldn’t afford to get deeper into his contract and not find out if he could play.  They drafted Brian Brohm out of Louisville, thinking that, in the strong QB draft class of 2008, a second rounder spent on Brohm was as valuable as the last 1st they spent on Rodgers three years before.

In his first season as a starter, he exceeded expectations.  He finished average, or above average, in every passing statistic.  Last year, the team released Brohm, and watched Rodgers improve in every statistical category, except sack rate, which declined severely (6.0% to 8.5%, as the overall sack environment went down).  As always, the real Rodgers is probably in between, and as long as he’s executing this well on third down, he will remain one of the best passers in the NFC.

This year, though, watch out.  Rodgers’ line is, put nicely, in transition.  Chad Clifton signed a 3-year, $20 million contract in the offseason, out of high demand at his position.  The team drafted Brian Bulaga, who figures to play somewhere right away, possibly at RT for Mark Tauscher, who is back on a one year deal.  Tauscher is younger than Clifton, but his career has been less prolific.  The good news is that the Packers have three starting caliber tackles, which should help avoid the disaster that was the first half of last season.  The bad news is that it’s two aging guys and a rookie.  LG Darryn Colledge is still a major weakness.  C Scott Wells is just a guy, even if he’s been at his position for a long time.  RG Josh Sitton, at least, is looking to lock down the role of franchise RG, after starting 16 games last year.

Aaron Rodgers is one of a few quarterbacks (Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, David Garrard, Jason Campbell) who are better under pressure than merely under the threat of pressure.  The other thing all these quarterbacks share in common: they get hit.  A lot.  Rodgers figures to be hit a lot this year as well, which means that his league-leading 1.3% INT rate is not sustainable.  In fact, that rate could drift into the 3% range for the first time in Rodgers career.  That, along with a declining completion percentage and unsustainable yards per attempt figures could mean a decline season across the board for Rodgers.

He can circumvent these effects by continuing to be excellent on third downs, but his limited success on that down against division rivals Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota compared to all other opponents, suggests that the more film that is there on his tendencies, the more limited Rodgers will be in critical third and longs.

The Packers might also struggle to get contribution from their running game.  Ryan Grant got dinged up in the first quarter of preseason action this year.  He should be okay for the first game, but it’s still a negative indicator that the no. 1 tailback on an offense-heavy team gets drilled that early in a preseason game.  Backup Brandon Jackson was ineffective in that role last year, and has only one out of three seasons averaging better than 3.7 YPC on the ground.  James Starks, the team’s 6th round pick out of Buffalo has potential.  But this year, it’s Grant and whatever injuries he may incur running the football.

The best unit on offense is the receivers.  Greg Jennings is one of the ten best receivers in the game.  Donald Driver was one of the 15 best last year, and is 35.  A list of the comparable receivers to his career suggests that the end is very near, but expecting one more 800+ yard season isn’t unreasonable.  Even if Driver can’t continue his pace, third year man Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) is probably ready for primetime after averaging 14.5 yards per catch last season.  And if Driver gets hurt this year, James Jones, a fourth year player, is capable of being a third receiver.  Tight end Jermichael Finley is a match-up nightmare.  When talking about the players who make Rodgers a fantastic red zone QB, Finley doesn’t get enough credit.  Corner’s can’t cover him.  Safeties can’t cover him.  Most linebackers have the size to cover him, but demonstrate poor cover skills on an island.  Finley has even more room to grow, and a lot of personnel types are surprised that the raw specimen made an impact as quickly as he did.

Defensively, the Packers are going to have to pick up some slack if the passing offense and rushing offenses slide a little bit.  They have the talent at all three levels to do so.  On the defensive line, an indefinite suspension to Johnny Jolly is a big deal, thinning out the line just a bit.  Nose tackle BJ Raji is an absolute stud in the making on the interior, he will provide matchup issues for most center/guard combos.  His presence allows Ryan Pickett to slide outside in the Packers’ 3-4.  Those two, combined with LB Nick Barnett are the center of a great run-stuffing unit.  Rookie Mike Neal will be asked to step up (and possibly in for) Jolly on the left side.  None of those guys are going to pressure the QB, so it’s up to second year players Brad Jones and Clay Matthews to put pressure on the quarterback.

There are reasons to be skeptical that that pressure can get there.  Matthews’ excellent rookie year was partially to credit to the half-season presence of Aaron Kampman.  Kampman is gone, and Jones will be forced into a full time role.  He could excel with the added snaps, or exposed by the same sample.  AJ Hawk has continued to disappoint on the inside next to Barnett.  Hawk’s emergence could really make a difference for a unit that needs the boost, but right now, he provides mediocrity at a non-premium position.

The secondary might be the weakest unit on the roster.  Al Harris continues to rehab from a serious, career-threatening, foot injury.  Defensive player of the year Charles Woodson returns as the other corner, while Tramon Williams will fill in for Al Harris rehabs.  Don’t forget about 2008 2nd rounder Pat Lee (Auburn), who missed the entire 2009 season, but clearly has an opportunity as de-facto nickelback with Harris out.  SS Atari Bigby will get pushed (finally) by third round pick, SS Morgan Burnett (Ga. Tech).  There are no questions about Nick Collins at FS, one of the best in the league in his prime.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Graham Harrell is the new Brian Brohm, taking to the Packers roster after a stellar college career.

The Packers usually only keep 3 RBs (figuring that waiver pickups can play in their system on short notice), so Kregg Lumpkin could be pushed by Starks.  Conversely, the WCO offense allows them to hold multiple fullbacks, and so Quinn Johnson is going to push either John Kuhn or Korey Hall to make the roster.

The 5th receiver spot, formerly held by Ruvell Martin, can now go to someone else.  Perhaps, anyone else.  Brett Swain is the front runner.  Chastin West, Patrick Williams, Shawn Gore, Jason Chery, and Charles Dillon are the challengers.  Spencer Havner, a converted LB, emerged last year as the clear cut no. 2 TE, which puts Donald Lee in all sorts of roster trouble.  Tom Crabtree and draft choice Andrew Quarless will battle for his spot.

Marshall Newhouse, the teams 5th round pick out of TCU, and Jason Spitz (who backs up at center and guard) are the two primary backups on the interior.  With the three starting caliber tackles, the Packers don’t necessarily have to keep more than eight lineman.  But they probably will, because giving up on Breno Giacomini, T.J. Lang, and Allen Barbre at the same time likely isn’t in the cards.  Lang, in particular, might have a future at LG (this year), or RT (next year), so he’s probably safe.

DE Justin Harrell, unable to participate in much of the offseason work, is more likely than not to be released.  Cullen Jenkins and rookie second rounder Mike Neal will split time at LDE.  That leaves two spots for Ronald Talley, Jairus Wynn, and rookie C.J. Wilson.

Brandon Chillar, Desmond Bishop, and Brady Poppinga might make up the most impressive group of backup ILBs in football, and it’s a little surprising that none have unseated Hawk yet.  But the Packers are very much void of pass rushers, could add a veteran, and anyone on the roster who flashes raw skills in the preseason could make the final roster, because there are two (or at least one) open spot(s) at LB that have no frontrunner.

One spot at safety will be determined between special teamers Charlie Peprah and Will Blackmon.  I’m guessing Peprah is the front-runner.  If Lee doesn’t seize the moment in the offseason, he could be released so the team can keep Jarrett Bush as a special teamer, and Brandon Underwood as a ‘teamer/fifth corner.  Right now, Underwood would be the last defensive cut.

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New England Patriots (projected finish: 10-6)

Team synopsis: One of the few teams in the league that would consider it a failure to lose consecutive games at any point during the season, the Patriots have spent the last two drafts absolutely loaded with picks.  Barring a complete failure on the development end, the Patriots should remain an elite organization over the next 5 to 6 years as Tom Brady’s career winds down.  Even though the Patriots could go nearly an entire starting offense and defense with stars or players with star potential, (they’re short a running back, a few lineman, and a pass rusher) they inevitably will run into problems that all young teams run into: relying on developmental types means that you’re also relying on the types who will not develop.  Because of this, the Pats are going to lose consecutive games again this year, and won’t be an elite team, at least in the first half of the year.

But if you’re looking for a lower seed to make a splash in the playoffs…

Best Players

• QB Tom Brady (drafted — Michigan/2000 6th round pick
• WR Randy Moss (trade — Oakland/2007 4th round pick)
• WR Wes Welker (trade — Miami/2007 2nd round pick)
• C Dan Koppen (drafted — Boston College/2003 5th round pick)
• RT Sebastian Vollmer (drafted — UMass/2009 2nd round pick)
• NT Vince Wilfork (drafted — Miami/2004 1st round pick)
• DE Damione Lewis (signed — Carolina/2010 free agent)
• LB Jerod Mayo (drafted — Tennessee/2008 1st round pick)
• CB Leigh Bodden (signed — Detroit/2009 free agent)
• SS Brandon Merriweather (drafted — Miami/2007 1st round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Brandon Tate (drafted — North Carolina/2009 3rd round pick)
• WR Taylor Price (drafted — Ohio/2010 3rd round pick)
• TE Rob Gronkowski (drafted — Arizona/2010 2nd round pick)
• TE Aaron Hernandez (drafted — Florida/2010 4th round pick)
• LB Jermaine Cunningham (drafted — Florida/2010 2nd round pick)
• LB Brandon Spikes (drafted — Florida/2010 2nd round pick)
• CB Darius Butler (drafted — Connecticut/2009 1st round pick)
• CB Devin McCourty (drafted — Rutgers/2010 1st round pick)
• FS Patrick Chung (drafted — Oregon/2009 2nd round pick)

With all the hype surrounding the Jets this year, it seems absurd to think that a team that the team that stockpiles draft picks at the top of the draft every year, the team that has Bill Belichick as it’s head coach, and Tom Brady as it’s quarterback, and perhaps is better at every position than the New York team could actually be projected to finish behind them.  But I think that the preseason pundits have spoken, and that they expect the Jets to be a better team than the Patriots for 16 games.  Like I said, it’s just absurd, and very much devoid of reasoning.

One of the reasons I would suggest the Jets might struggle in the regular season this year, is because they still play in a division that is historically unwinnable.  The Patriots win this thing every year.  The only year since 2003 that they didn’t win it, they had 11 wins and tied for it.  And while yes, the Patriots are down, and that might make it a week to week struggle for them to get to double digit wins again (spoiler: they will), that should be plenty enough to win the AFC East again.

The gap between Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez is greater than the gap between any two quarterbacks in the same division this year (at least, before deferring to the yet-to-be-named Bills starter), which is a good talking point to start on.  The Jets might  have the better offensive line (its close), but Brady throws to the best receiving tandem in the NFL, and the stable of backs for New England is stronger than the stable for New York.  There’s no comparison between the Patriots offense and any offense in the AFC East — the Pats simply have more, everywhere.

The Pats defense is again expected to limit how good they can be.  They’re strong in the middle with Vince Wilfork, but that’s been true the last two years and it hasn’t helped much.  Daminone Lewis, a former first round pick of the Rams, is a big-time pickup.  The Panthers took a flyer on a guy who never had more than 5 sacks in a season as a Ram, and got a quality starter and a dominant guy off the bench.  The Patriots put Ty Warren on IR, meaning that Lewis will be a starter in the Pats 3-4 front.  Gerrard Warren has been signed, and will likely split time with Darryl Richard, Myron Pryor, and Mike Wright for time on the backside.  For as much talent as they still have, this unit is in great flux.

Jerod Mayo, who is coming off an injury plagued season, is the star of the defensive unit.  Gary Guyton played next to him last year, but he is likely to lose that job soon to either the rangy, athletic Tyrone McKenzie or the powerful, instinctive Brandon Spikes.  Tully Banta-Cain had a strong 2009 season as a pass rusher, but he’s a system guy filling a huge hole.  Jermaine Cunningham and Derrick Burgess are in a desperation battle with Marques Murrell for the other OLB spot.  Cunningham could start as a rookie.

Leigh Bodden is the team’s best corner and Brandon Merriweather is the best safety, and after that, the secondary is all-young.  The oldest corner (aside from Bodden), Jonathon Wilhite, is 26.  There are a pair of veteran safeties competing for the free safety role, both are 26: Brandon McGowan, and James Sanders.  Starter-in-waiting Pat Chung turns 23 this week.  Outside of Bodden, no member of the secondary exceeds 26 years old.

Those outside linebackers are the weak spot on the team for a second year in a row.  New England ranked in the bottom half in adjusted sack rate last season, and they are a team who likes to bring their pressure from all angles.  That should help ASR, and it probably did, as the Pats have not much behind Banta-Cain to get to the passer.

Brady will go as his skill positions go, which is why the Wes Welker knee rehabilitation is a storyline that runs front and center at Pats camp.  Brady used Randy Moss to the fullest of his abilities back in 2007, but Welker has been the motor of the entire Pats offense and there is no offense without him.  For all he’s good at, Julian Edelman is just a guy who stands in for Welker when he’s out, the Pats passing offense is in trouble without him.  To their credit, the Pats took Aaron Hernandez out of Florida, a player who is good enough to be the Wes Welker of the next generation Patriots passing game, probably out of an H-back role.  Rob Gronkowski is more of a traditional tight end, but only by Patriots standards, as he’s a pretty versatile player in his own right.

A big storyline will be that the Patriots will try desperately to find a Randy Moss replacement.  The leaders for the role are Brandon Tate, a second year man out of North Carolina, and Taylor Price, a third round pick this year.  Both have a way to get into the starting lineup: FA pickup Torry Holt hit IR as this article was being written (he likely wouldn’t have made the cut anyway), leaving Sam Aiken as the incumbent starter in the 3 WR offense of the Pats.  Aiken isn’t talented enough to block Price or Tate, so if they are ready, they will play.

The final issue would be to sort out the running backs.  Laurence Maroney is the starter in a contract year.  Kevin Faulk will remain a situational back and the pass catching specialist.  Sammy Morris gives the Pats flexibility to hold no fullbacks (he can line up there in goal line formations), and break camp with up to five RBs, including: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Fred Taylor.  Taylor might still be the best of the group, at least in limited time.  Morris has excellent per play numbers, since joining the Patriots.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

The Pats have done a great job rebuilding the QB position after trading Matt Cassel.  Both Brian Hoyer and Zac Robinson are better prospects than the Chiefs starter.  The only question here is whether the Patriots will keep three QBs.

I’m thinking there’s no space on the roster for WR Matthew Slater, even with Torry Holt out of the mix.  I don’t think the Pats are ready to make a final decision between Tate and Price, and he’s not going to beat out Edelman.  That means theres one spot for Slater and Sam Aiken, and Aiken both plays and contributes on offense.

The Pats have Eric Ghiaciuc in with them as a potential backup Center, but he’s likely to lose that battle to rookie Ted Larsen.  Utility lineman Dan Connolly, Rich Ohrnberger, and rookie seventh round pick Thomas Welch will battle for just one or two spots.  There might be an extra one this year if Logan Mankins doesn’t report for the season.  Starting guard might end up being the most entertaining camp battle for the Pats this year, as Ghiaciuc could be in the mix for that.

Rookie Zoltan Mesko from Michigan is the only punter on the roster.

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Minnesota Vikings (projected finish: 9-7)

Team synopsis: Will he or won’t he?  Said this last year and got burned, but: it may not matter.  The Vikings figure to be able to throw the football at a level unseen in 2008 regardless of who they play at quarterback, and in 2008, they won a weak division.  With another emerging star on the DL, and more depth in the secondary, the defense should be more of a factor in 2010 than it was in 2009.  The offense isn’t capable of powering them to as many wins as they did last year, but that’s a regression to the mean effect, and not indicative of uncertainty around the quarterback position.  Plus, you don’t think trying to get 16 games out of a 41 year old quarterback qualifies as uncharted territory?  For real?

Best Players

• RB Adrian Peterson (drafted — Oklahoma/2007 1st round pick)
• WR Sidney Rice (drafted — South Carolina/2007 2nd round pick)
• TE Visanthe Shiancoe (signed — NY Giants/2007 free agent)
• LG Steve Hutchinson (signed — Seattle/2006 ‘transition player’ designation)
• DE Jared Allen (trade — Kansas City/2008 1st & 3rd round picks)
• DE Ray Edwards (drafted — Purdue/2006 4th round pick)
• DT Kevin Williams (drafted — Oklahoma State/2003 1st round pick)
• LB Chad Greenway (drafted — Iowa/2006 1st round pick)
• CB Antoine Winfield (signed — Buffalo/2004 free agent)

Best Prospects

• RB Toby Gerhart (drafted — Stanford/2010 2nd round pick)
• WR Percy Harvin (drafted — Florida/2009 1st round pick)
• RT Phil Loadholt (drafted — Oklahoma/2009 2nd round pick)
• LB Jasper Brinkley (drafted — South Carolina/2009 6th round pick)
• SS Tyrell Johnson (drafted — Arkansas State/2008 2nd round pick)

You have to build through the draft.  It’s the only way to build a contender.  Free agents can help, but if you don’t develop your own nucleus through homegrown talent, it’s hard to sustain winning.

Oh really?  There are three NFC North teams that build almost exclusively through the draft (at least until the Bears recently broke long-time character) and all three are oh-for the division title since 2008.  The one team that hasn’t followed the draft-and-develop model very closely, the Minnesota Vikings, came within a field goal of the super bowl.

You probably didn’t think of the Vikings as a team built entirely of mercenaries and stars who were born in other towns, but this is essentially what this team is.  The best player on the Vikings, Jared Allen, made it into Chiefs camp in 2004 as a prospective long-snapper, only for the defense-starved Chiefs to later find that they didn’t have a better pass rusher on the team (the NFL would later find that it didn’t have anyone better either).  He was traded at the peak of his value to the Vikings for first and third round picks in 2008, and to this point, it does appear to look like the Vikings have won the trade.

Madieu Williams is a safety who played his first four seasons with the Bengals.  Pat Williams was the centerpiece of an awesome 2004 Bills defense, but became too expensive for the team too keep, and signed with the Vikings as a free agent.  Antoine Winfield had his best years as a Bill.  Ben Leber was a Charger.  Steve Hutchinson was an all-pro with the Seahawks.  Visanthe Shiancoe grew up as a Giant. The now-departed Chester Taylor began his career with the Ravens.  Bernard Berrian became a $20 million man after playing in the super bowl with the Bears.  And we certainly can’t forget about the aging quarterback who played with two other teams before being traded to the Vikings; I’m talking about my main man, Sage Rosenfels.

On each side of the ball, the Vikings have exactly one superstar, and a number of other contributors who have been Vikings since entering the NFL.  On offense, it’s Adrian Peterson, the first round pick from 2007.  On defense, it’s 2003 first round defensive tackle Kevin Williams.  Both are in the discussion for best player at their respective position.  Offensive contributors include Sidney Rice, Phil Loadholt, and Percy Harvin, while defense gives you DE Ray Edwards, and LBs EJ Henderson and Chad Greenway.  These are all very, very good players who prove that the Vikings can draft and develop talent, but if you take away the stars such as Allen and Shiancoe and Hutchinson and Winfield, this is an incredibly mediocre team that can’t compete in it’s own division (well, they’re still a handful for the Lions at least).

The Vikings are getting better, and haven’t done anything but draft since acquiring Jared Allen in 2008.  The only position where the Vikings have used a pick to acquire veteran help since the Allen trade is quarterback.  They have taken a predominantly build-through-draft attitude over the past two offseasons, since they became a playoff team.  And because of it, their long term prospects are better.  In future seasons, the Vikings will likely run into a contract crunch, where the acquisitions of 2005-2007 will expire.  Greenway, Rice, and Pat Williams are in contract years.  Peterson and Hutchinson’s deals expire after 2012, and finding the cash to extend Peterson might cause the team to release Hutchinson.  Bernard Berrian’s contract runs through 2013, but gets far too expensive after 2011 to justify his production.  Shiancoe’s contract runs just through 2011.

Even though the Vikings wasted no money in their free agent signings (Berrian, maybe, aside), they do have a rapidly aging team where the core pieces will require more money to keep, and by 2012, this team will likely be just Peterson, Rice or Shiancoe, Kevin Williams, Allen, Ray Edwards, and which-ever of the prospects develop.  The quarterback in 2012 probably isn’t on the roster.  The offensive line, already in flux, will likely remain there for seasons into the future.  The defensive line will remain a strength many years into the future, but I think the linebackers and corners will be aggressively turned over behind them.  The head coach, Brad Childress, probably has to win in both 2010 and 2011 to be the coach in 2012.

And because of the mass changes in the future for the Vikings, 2010 does feel like something of a win-now year.  But if the Vikings were the fourth or fifth best team in the NFL last year, they might only be the eighth or ninth best team in the NFL this year.  And so, if they don’t exceed their own talent level in terms of playoff success, getting out of the NFC North might be the ceiling for this team.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Words out of Mankato indicate that the Vikings are high enough on fifth rounder Joe Webb (UAB) to send Rosenfels packing if Brett Favre ever comes into camp.

Ryan Moats, formerly of Houston, is in camp to push Ian Johnson as the third running back.

Marko Mitchell was picked up on Waivers from the Lions after being released by them and the Redskins in the same week.  He’s a nice darkhorse pick to be this team’s fourth receiver, behind Rice, Harvin, and Berrian.  Greg Lewis remains in the mix, as a head coach favorite.  Jaymar Johnson had a decent return season last year, and there might be up to two spots on the roster for Johnson, Darius Reynaud, and undrafted rookie Ray Small, from Ohio State.

Mickey Shuler, a tight end from Penn State, has an uphill battle to make the team, but he’ll be one of the last (and toughest) cuts, if he can’t beat Garrett Mills or Jim Kleinsasser.  The Vikings have very little depth on the offensive line, as they are returning the same five guys who started last year.  Their 5th rounder, Chris DeGeare, seems like the first guy off the bench at any of the interior line positions, or at least second after just Ryan Cook.  They could pick up a veteran who is released by another team.

The Vikings have excellent depth at defensive end, and will probably keep the same four defensive tackles as last year.  Everson Griffin, a film star at USC, could make an instant impact (or no impact at all, or somewhere in between).  Mike Montgomery was picked up from Green Bay, and could be a swingman at end and tackle.  That leaves Brian Robinson as a situational pass rusher.  Nathan Triplett and Ryan D’Imperio will battle each other to join Heath Farwell, Erin Henderson, and Jasper Brinkley as backup LBs.

Lito Sheppard’s formerly pro-bowl career could be on it’s last legs.  He, along with Asher Allen and rookie Chris Cook figure to make up the CB depth this year, and he figures to hold off Benny Sapp for the job.  But Sheppard is a lot closer to the bubble than either Cook or Allen.  Jamarca Sanford had a useful year as the 3rd safety last year as a rookie, figuring to hold that role if not push Madieu Williams to be a starter.

The Vikings signed Rhys Lloyd away from the Panthers, and will join the increasing number of teams who separate their kickoff and placekicking duties.

See more: Bucs, Browns, Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Bengals, Bills, Lions, Giants,

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Carolina Panthers (projected finish: 8-8)

Team synopsis: The schedule reveals one tough contest after another, with potential reprieves against Cleveland, Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona, perhaps?  Unless you have Tampa Bay as one of the three worst teams in football (and I do not), Carolina plays a pre-bye schedule of NY Giants, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Chicago, and then a November stretch of New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.  Luckily, you’d expect the Panthers to pull an upset or two based solely on their organizational talent and unique abilities to control the clock better than any other team.  Unfortunately, the sum of all these factors looks something like an 8-8 finish, but a particularly promising 2011 if, and this is a big if, the team sees enough to extend the contract of head coach John Fox.

Best Players

• RB DeAngelo Williams (drafted — Memphis/2006 1st round pick)
• RB Jonathon Stewart (drafted — Oregon/2008 1st round pick)
• WR Steve Smith (drafted — Utah/2001 3rd round pick)
• LT Jordan Gross (drafted — Utah/2003 1st round pick)
• C Ryan Kalil (drafted — USC/2007 2nd round pick)
• LB Jon Beason (drafted — Miami/2007 1st round pick)
• CB Chris Gamble (drafted — Ohio State/2004 1st round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Brandon LaFell (drafted — LSU/2010 3rd round pick)
• TE Gary Barnidge (drafted — Louisville/2008 5th round pick)
• RG Geoff Schwartz (drafted — Oregon/2008 7th round pick)
• DE Everette Brown (drafted — Florida State/2009 2nd round pick)
• LB Eric Norwood (drafted — South Carolina/2010 4th round pick)
• CB Captain Munnerlyn (drafted — South Carolina/2009 7th round pick)

The Panthers are one of Peter King’s darkhorse contenders this year.  They should consider themselves lucky to not be Dr. Z’s super bowl pick!

The first thing that sticks out about the Panthers roster is that they’ve done a better job retaining successful first round picks of yesteryear than they have retaining their own first round picks.  The Panthers last had a first round pick in 2008, when they had two, drafting RB Jonathon Stewart and RT Jeff Otah with them.  Their 2006 first round pick, Jonathon Stewart, is in the last year of his contract.  If the franchise tag exists past this year, he should be back in 2011, but there’s a very real possibility that he will be elsewhere next year.  If Stewart walks, he would be the first Panther 1st rounder to spend fewer than 7 years with the team since 2000 1st rounder Rashard Anderson, and the first to not sign an extension since Julius Peppers (notwithstanding Otah and Beason).

He’d also contribute to an aging problem in the roster by leaving.  Stewart, Otah, and Beason are still very young, but Gross, Gamble, Travelle Wharton, and Thomas Davis are all aging at the same rate, and will hit their thirties before the end of the year 2012  Davis, perhaps, faster than others because he tore his ACL again in OTAs, and will miss most if not all this season.  Steve Smith will be 31 this season, and he, himself does not feel like he is best suited to remain the Panthers no. 1 receiver.  No. 1, 2, or 3, Smith is still the go to guy in the Panthers’ passing game.  He’s just no longer a passing game onto itself.  He needs help.

He might have help in the form of receiving TEs Dante Rosario and Gary Barnidge, but likely will receive very little from WR Dwayne Jarrett.  The Panthers have one of the deepest, most impressive TE depth charts in the league, but next year, they will likely have to make choices about who to pay among that group and who to let go, as all three, including starter Jeff King, near unrestricted free agency.  Their wide receiver depth chart is the very definition of unimpressive.  Beyond Steve Smith, returning Panthers receivers combined for…24 catches, 23 of which belong to Jarrett and Kenneth Moore.  The team selected Brandon Lafell in the third round this year, and his contribution could be immediate because, well, there’s just not a lot here.

More than ever, I’m convinced that the Panthers only ever “built” a passing game because they happened to stumble upon Steve Smith in the 2001 drafted.  They were looking for a dynamic kick returner, and found a guy who might end up in the hall of fame as a receiver someday.  This year’s draft class was a step in the right direction, adding receivers LaFell and Armanti Edwards, and quarterbacks Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike.  Clausen fits the scheme well, as with a run blocking line, you need a quarterback who can sell play action to buy himself time.  Pike, if nothing else, was a good value, as you never know in the NFL if your power offense of 2008 might end up taking on a spread look by 2013.

Clausen is irrelevant in the short term because the Panthers are going with 26 year old Matt Moore at quarterback.  Moore has been promising, completing 59.4% of 249 attempts as an NFL quarterback between 2007 and 2009, and finishing up his three starts last year with a 98.5% QB rating.  His college statistics see a guy who completed 60% of his passes in 24 starts and got sacked on 7.6% of his dropbacks, so unless Moore is a better pro player than a college player, there might not be much here to work with.  Playing him until the flame is doused is probably the best strategy.

Clausen’s long-term prospects are pretty mediocre.  He had a better college completion percentage than the man he succeeded, Brady Quinn.  Accurate, with a low college interception rate, and a middling amount of college starts at a fairly advanced age (Clausen spent just three years at ND, but was a 19 year old early admission, playing his true freshman season just before turning 20 in December).  In other words, a game manager in the mold of Matt Leinart.  The best case scenario for the Panthers is for Moore to establish himself as the team’s franchise passer, but Clausen is a nice Plan B.

Aside from the best backfield tandem in the league, the offensive line is the team’s strength.  Jordan Gross is the team’s franchise LT, fresh off injury, and Ryan Kalil might be the NFCs best center.  Travelle Wharton is a placeholder at LG who does a decent job at tackle when necessary.  Geoff Schwartz might already be the team’s third best lineman at RG, and Jeff Otah is an average RT, which is all the Panthers were expecting out of their first round draft pick.  The Panthers will go without a blocking fullback for the first time in recent memory, moving Brad Hoover out to make room for multiple dual TE sets.

Without a passing game to speak of, the defense absolutely has to answer the bell.  While a very young unit, the issue here is that the group is Jon Beason, Chris Gamble, and a plethora of young guys in development.  This could be a problem.  When Julius Peppers wasn’t producing last year, the Panthers began the season 0-3.  Now they don’t have to worry about Peppers’ inconsistent production, because they do not have him.

The defensive line, in general, is a who’s who list of no-names.  6th round draft pick Greg Hardy, a college DE, could be in the mix to start as the three technique.  Other defensive tackles on this team are named Nick Hayden and Louis Leonard.  Ed Johnson, Tank Tyler, and Derek Landri are also in camp.  Tyler Brayton, Everette Brown, and Charles Johnson are a formidable, if forgettable, rotation at defensive end.  The strategy to replace Peppers will look similar to the strategy of the Titans to replace Albert Haynesworth, though likely with less impressive results on the DL.

The Titans defense folded last year because of secondary play.  For the Panthers, the secondary figures to be a strength.  Or at least, it has to be.  Chris Gamble is a no. 1 corner, and Richard Marshall is a good starter with excellent run support skills.  Both can be beaten deep.  Captain Munnerlyn figures to be a starter on this team sooner rather than later, particularly since Marshall is in a contract year.  Charles Godfrey played well as the strong safety last year.  Free safety is a major concern on one hand, but on the other hand, might be the least important position in the Panthers defensive scheme.  If Richard Marshall can be picked on all year, the Panthers could be in trouble.  But I doubt either Sherrod Martin or rookie DB Jordan Pugh are going to ruin the Panthers season.

There are plenty of competent linebackers who can play beside Beason on the roster, but that doesn’t mean Thomas Davis isn’t a big loss.  James Anderson has traditionally been a fourth linebacker, but is more than competent in a starters role.  Jamar Williams is an excellent player in his own right, picked up from the Bears for Chris Harris in a trade.  Dan Connor has been disappointing through two injury-plagued NFL seasons, but Davis’ injury gives him a chance to establish himself this year.

If the Panthers are done in by anything this year, their defense will probably be to blame.  Having the running game is one of the surest things in all of football this year, and the Panthers go in knowing that using play action and tight end routes are the only way to open up holes in the passing game for Moore to throw into.  The post-Peppers defense could be anywhere between a top ten unit, and a bottom eight unit.  A strong unit makes them a darkhorse playoff contender.  A weak unit makes them a 6-10 team, and starts the coaching search for 2011.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Tony Pike edition.  The Panthers are very loyal to all their quarterbacks, so it’s too early to pencil Pike onto the roster, at the expense of Hunter Cantwell.  If Cantwell outplays Pike in the preseason, he could win the backup QB job over Clausen, and force Pike to the practice squad.

Running back behind Williams/Stewart could be interesting and have significant future implications.  The team likes Tyrell Sutton as a kick returner, but he was also a great college running back at Northwestern who could easily be the no. 3 on this team.  He’s behind Mike Goodson right now.  Goodson was a guy the team was really high on last season, but his rookie year was disappointing (22 carries, 49 yards), to say the least.  His roster spot could be in danger this pre-season because of Dantrell Savage, a RB picked up on waivers from the Chiefs, who was thought to have a future there.  The Panthers didn’t keep four RBs at the outset last year, but when Goodson went on IR, Sutton filled the third RB role, rushing for 68 yards on just 12 carries.

Mackenzy Bernadeau played well in a relief effort last year, likely earning his spot as the eight lineman on the roster this year.  Steve Justice was picked up from the Colts in the offseason to be backup Center.  Duke Robinson, a second year pro from Oklahoma can play multiple positions on the line, and should slide nicely into Geoff Schwartz’ 6th OL spot for a group filled with utility players.  The interesting backup OT battle between Jason Capizzi, a camp star for the Steelers the last two years, and Rob Pettiti, who was horrible as Cowboys starter back as a rookie in 2005, but got some quality reps in the UFL last year.  The winner is probably bound to be inactive more likely than not.

Quentin Culberson has resurfaced in Carolina, and will probably be the 5th LB on a team likely to keep just six, even if Thomas Davis lands on IR.  The reason is with the Panthers kicking game.  The Panthers keep four special teamers, employing Rhys Lloyd as a kickoff man to help John Kasay the last two seasons.  Lloyd has departed, and in his place, is former Grand Valley kicker Todd Carter.

The safety roster situation is pretty clear, even if the starting FS position remains up for grabs: Aaron Francisco will be the backup SS.  Behind the three corners who figure to play the most, there’s a major roster crunch at corner.  The team drafted Roger McClain and R.J. Stanford with it’s last two draft picks, but does not figure to keep both.  C.J. Wilson, a late round pick from three years ago, is ready for a bigger role in the defense, which means Dante Wesley’s old role.  Former Jaguar Brian Witherspoon will return kicks in the preseason, and an excellent performance there could push him through on the final roster as a gunner and returner.

See all of the previous LiveBall Roster Roundouts articles:  Bucs, Browns, Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Bengals, Bills, Lions, Giants,Dolphins, Broncos, Redskins, Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers.

San Francisco 49ers (projected record: 9-7)

Team synopsis: After eight long years, the 49ers will finally find themselves back atop the NFC West this season.  Unless, of course, someone else in the division gets to ten wins.  But if you’re looking for a team that can make a deep playoff run, and isn’t the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Saints, Vikings, Packers, or Falcons — the favorites — this 49ers team could make more of an impact in January than in the regular season.  It wouldn’t be terribly shocking if the 49ers wound up in the NFC Championship game.

Best Players

• RB Frank Gore (drafted — Miami/2005 3rd round pick)
• TE Vernon Davis (drafted — Maryland/2006 1st round pick)
• LG Mike Iupati (drafted — Idaho/2010 1st round pick)
• NT Aubrayo Franklin (signed — Baltimore/2007 free agent)
• DE Justin Smith (signed — Cincinnati/2008 free agent)
• LB Patrick Willis (drafted — Ole Miss/2007 1st round pick)

Best Prospects

• QB Nate Davis (drafted — Ball State/2009 5th rouhd pick)
• RB Anthony Dixon (drafted — Miss. State/2010 6th round pick)
• WR Michael Crabtree (drafted — Texas Tech/2009 1st round pick)
• RT Anthony Davis (drafted — Rutgers/2010 1st round pick)
• C Cody Wallace (drafted — Texas A&M/2008 4th round pick)
• FS Taylor Mays (drafted — USC/2010 2nd round pick)

I can’t think of a team, off the top of my head, that has done a better job finding early round quality talent in the late rounds than the 49ers.  Cody Wallace has a big opportunity ahead of him this fall, with an injury to incubent C Eric Heitmann that could threaten his availability for the season opener.  I liked Wallace coming out of Texas A&M, and there’s no reason to think that if he has a good two or three games to begin the year, his era as anchor of the SF line might have already begun.

RT Anthony Davis is a bit more of a project, but projects well at the right tackle position at the professional level.  The Niners could be two or even three years away from seeing return on that investment.  However, LG Mike Iupati should hit the ground running and really dominate a lacklauster slate of non-Darnell Dockett DTs in this division.  With Joe Staley coming back off injury, that leaves RG as the biggest issue on SFs line, because Vernon Davis can be an absolute stud of a blocker on the edge, when he wants to be.

Running back isn’t the issue either.  While the OL is a work in progress, the RB stable should drive the team’s offense.  Frank Gore, arguably, had a career year.  His 2006 season numbers were far more sparkling, but he wasn’t the first Norv Turner back to average 5.2 YPC.  This year, Gore did a lot of his work out of the shotgun formations, which aren’t beneficial to the running game, and behind an OL that wasn’t beneficial to anyone.  He scored a career high 10 rushing TDs, as well as a career high 3 receiving TDs.  Gore is the workhorse — the Rajon Rando of the NFL — but the 49ers have quite a prospect in Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State’s all time leading rusher (take that, Jerious Norwood!).  Gore, not Chris Johnson or Steven Jackson, is the NFL’s premier back, and I don’t want to count out the (limited) rookie contribution of Glen Coffee either.

The trigger man, this season, will be Alex Smith, the first overall pick in 2005.  Smith hasn’t been very good in the NFL, but could end up having a long, successful career as a backup thanks to his notorious ability to prepare during the week.  Smith has now twice flashed NFL ability in 2006 and 2009, in those two seasons, he’s a 12-14 replacement level quarterback who is just 26 years old.  In all other seasons (o5, 07, 08), Smith has started just 14 games, going a pathetic 4-10.  It goes without saying that 2010 is a last ditch chance for Smith to make a difference for the 49ers, and even though the 49ers haven’t sniffed the playoffs since Smith has been the team’s quarterback, he’s going to be more scrutinized for how he performs in the playoffs, if the 49ers make it in this year.

At Smith’s age, Eli Manning was a struggling no. 1 overall pick who would lead one of the more remarkable playoff runs in NFL memory, so this is a worthwhile gamble for the the 49ers.  Smith was one of the youngest first overall (along with JaMarcus Russell) draft picks in memory for a QB, and the fact that Smith has no obvious flaws in his game suggests that, yes, a light may still go on here.  He’s been decidedly below average across the board, but his Advanced Passing Index rates him above 90 (10% below league average average) in every single meaningful statistical category.  That’s not your typical bust.  His contract expires after the season, so the sixth year QB can go anywhere he wants to, likely as a backup, if things in SF do not work out.

The Niners clearly do not have all their eggs in Smith’s basket.  Backup David Carr — a former first overall choice himself — is a guy that the 49ers could play at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Carr has one hilarious weakness: the inability to get rid of the football before something terrible happens to his body.  He might be more accurate than Smith.  2nd year QB Nate Davis could be the team’s signal caller in 2011.  He fell in the 2009 draft due to a learning disability, and the subsequent concerns about him learning a playbook.  He might have been the best or second best signal caller in last year’s draft, and if you told me he would ascend to starting QB of the Niners next year, I’d tell you that the Niners are in better hands than the Jets.  As is, Davis still has plenty to prove before he sees the field, that’s why Carr is here.

The guys who will catch these passes, outside of Davis, isn’t really a matter of plural.  Its one guy.  WR Michael Crabtree is the movable piece in the offense, and perhaps the best receiver in the NFL draft since 2004, when Larry Fitzgerald came out of Pitt.  As Carolina’s Steve Smith ages, Crabtree and Atlanta’s Roddy White are probably the new perennial pro bowlers among NFC receivers.  Though Crabtree could make his first appearance this year, he might be a year of development away from a breakout, considering that he had no training camp last year, thanks to a contract dispute.

Of course, that’s the problem with the 49ers as they are constructed.  This offense looks great for the future, once they establish who the quarterback of the long-term is and get development from the offensive line and receivers, and get consecutive strong seasons out of Vernon Davis, and can reduce Frank Gore to a part time grinder role thanks to Dixon’s emergence, as all these things have a high probability of occurring individually, but in no uncertain terms, this is a win-now caliber defense.  And that offense-defense dichotomy, with a rebuilding unit and an elite one, could be a harmful dynamic to the 49ers.

The leader, both emotionally, and in tackles every season, is LB Patrick Willis.  The 49ers have a single superstar on either side of the ball.  On offense it’s Gore, on defense, Willis.  He got a lucrative contract extension from the team this offseason, which is notable because Willis was chosen by San Francisco two picks before Darrelle Revis was chosen by the NY Jets.  Both have outperformed their rookie contracts by a substantial amount, and do it with far less celebration and 15 yard penalties than LaRon Landry, the 6th overall pick in that draft, and the other highly touted draftee from the defensive back seven in that class.  Willis is assisted by Takeo Spikes, who bounced around after leaving Buffalo three seasons ago, playing in Philadelphia before settling in as a minor star in the 49ers defense.  Parys Haralson and Manny Lawson are promising pass rushers on the outside, but both are very one dimensional players, and need Willis and Spikes to excel in order to keep the middle a defensive strength.  Travis Laboy should add much needed depth to the OLBs.

The D-line is the best unit on the entire team, and probably a top five unit in the NFL among it’s position.  The team’s two best free agent pickups of the last five years have been NT Aubrayo Franklin (the team’s franchise player), and DE Justin Smith, who has become a prolific pass rusher out of 3-4 5-technique position.  The team wants 2008 first rounder Kentwan Balmer to emerge as the other DE, but he’s done nothing in two NFL seasons.  Demetric Evans is an inexpensive 30-year old veteran ($2 million salary this season) who is good enough to start in his place.  Ray McDonald is quality depth, and a good interior pass rusher.  Ricky Jean-Francois is still a prospect of sorts on the DL.

And, then there’s the secondary, a weakness.  CB Nate Clements is now in the backloaded portion of his backloaded $80 million deal, signed in 2007.  He’s been the free agent bust people have accused Albert Haynesworth of being.  Shawntae Spencer took longer to develop, but he’s a poor team’s number one corner.  With good coverage skills, he’s clearly not the problem, though he is 28 and coming off a career year.  Tarell Brown is a bit of a prospect at no. 2 CB, but probably best left as a nickel.  That means that Clements alone has the ability to turn this unit into a strength, but could be one of the most targeted CBs in the NFL this year.  4 INTs might be a bare minimum expectation for the guy who is under more pressure than anyone but Alex Smith in San Francisco.

Dashon Goldson and Michael Lewis are sound players at the safety position with coverage issues.  Taylor Mays is going to be the guy who replaces Lewis in the lineup, and frees up Goldson to play in the box where he is most comfortable.  Mays’ physical skills are unquestioned, but if Mike Singletary can get the most out of this guy mentally, this could be a really fierce unit with Mays as an enforcer back there.

Singletary clearly believes in Mays as the defensive savior, maybe more than any other coach in the NFL did, as every team (but Chicago and Carolina) passed on Mays at least once.  Singletary has earned the benefit of the doubt, proving to be the hottest young coach in the NFL, and with all due respect to Marvin Lewis and Lovie Smith, figures to be the next minority head coach to win a super bowl, someday following in the steps of Tony Dungy and Mike Tomlin.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Welcome to an era of reasonable expectations, Ted Ginn.  The kick returning specialist, landed for the price of just a 5th round pick, is finally out from under the weight of trying to justify being the 9th overall pick in 2007 with no meaningful offensive football skills.  He becomes the primary returner for a 49er team that could use explosiveness to help an offense that will flounder from time to time this year.

If you pencil Ginn in as the 5th receiver behind Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Jason Hill, and Brandon Jones (who is signed for more than $5 million/season through 2011!), there’s only one spot left for Dominique Ziegler and draft pick Kyle Williams.

There’s battles at backup tackle and starting guard.  The team could keep both Barry Sims and Adam Snyder, given the pending health of Joe Staley and potential development snags of Anthony Davis, but the team is eventually going to run out of roster spaces, and neither has a future with the team.  David Bass and Chilo Rachal could both start at RG this year, I’d assume Rachal is the favorite.  Tony Wragge is a decent swingman, but if they keep four tackles, they won’t also keep Wragge, who can play center if Heitmann unexpectedly hits IR.

The team knows who it’s top seven DLman are: NTs Franklin and Issac Sopoaga, DEs Smith, Evans, McDonald, Jean-Francois, and Balmer.  An eight may be in play (Derek Walker and Khalif Mitchell are rostered), but I see little reason to go deeper than that.  A season ending injury to LB Scott McKillop hurts, but opens an unexpectedly available roster spot.  On a maybe not unrelated note, the team announced the signing of LB Bruce Davis recently.

A rookie CB from Western Illinois, Patrick Stoudamire, could be a player someday.  Beating out Will James for a job may be as simple as showing that, yes coach, I can play special teams.  Curtis Taylor, a third year safety from LSU, will be in direct competition for the much-more-touted Reggie Smith (Oklahoma), for the team’s dime back role this year.

See all of the previous LiveBall Roster Roundouts articles:  Bucs, Browns, Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Bengals, Bills, Lions, Giants,Dolphins, Broncos, Redskins, Cardinals, Raiders.

San Diego Chargers (projected finish: 9-7)

Team synopsis: For the Chargers, it’s the same old story of a slow start (projected 1-4 this season), followed by a furious finish (8-3) with a great passing game led by Phillip Rivers.  The only difference this year: the tie-breakers won’t fall in the Chargers favor yet again.  This team, at best is looking at 3-3 in an improved AFC West, and the Raiders are looking to snap a streak of 14 consecutive losses to the Chargers.  If Norv Turner and the Chargers can’t extend that streak to 16, then their streak of four consecutive division titles will snap as well.

LiveBall’s projections see two Chargers wins over Oakland, and a two game margin of difference in the final records.  You do the math.

Best Players

• QB Philip Rivers (drafted — N.C. State/2004 1st round pick)
• WR Malcom Floyd (signed — Wyoming/2004 undrafted free agent)
• TE Antonio Gates (signed — Kent State/2003 undrafted free agent)
• LG Kris Dielman (signed — Indiana/2003 undrafted free agent)
• LB Shaun Phillips (drafted — Purdue/2004 4th round pick)
• CB Quentin Jammer (drafted — Texas/2002 1st round pick)
• S Eric Weddle (drafted — Utah/2007 2nd round pick)

Best Prospects

• RB Ryan Mathews (drafted — Fresno State/2010 1st round pick)
• RG Louis Vasquez (drafted — Texas Tech/2009 3rd round pick)
• NT Cam Thomas (drafted — North Carolina/2010 4th round pick)
• CB Antoine Cason (drafted — Arizona/2008 1st round pick)

Best Players who Potentially Won’t Sign Until Week 10

• WR Vincent Jackson (drafted — Northern Colorado/2005 2nd round pick)
• LT Marcus McNeill (drafted — Auburn/2006 2nd round pick)

And such is the first chapter of the 2010 Chargers story, the first team willingly snakebit by the rules of the uncapped season.  Any discussion of the 2010 Chargers has to begin with Jackson and McNeill, and eventually ends with the irreplaceable: Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates.  Of course, we’re about to find out if McNeill and Jackson are also irreplaceable.  This blog’s sense of the issue is that something will get done with Marcus McNeill long term, that is in compliance with the CBAs 30% rule, and McNeill misses only a game or two at most.

Vincent Jackson is a different issue altogether.  Since the beginning of the Marty Schottenheimer era, the Chargers have always felt their receivers to be somewhat replaceable.  If you’re weak at the position: you go get Chris Chambers.  If you are stronger at the position: you waive Chris Chambers.  Jackson, though, is the best receiver that the Chargers have had, at least since the days of Kellen Winslow or Lance Alworth.  To a degree, you can understand why the Chargers think life will go on without Jackson.  Philip Rivers’ arm is golden, Jackson isn’t the most versatile weapon in the Chargers offense already, and there are young targets that the Chargers are trying to develop at receiver.

But here’s the issue: the entire San Diego roster is experienced and growing old together, and there’s not a lot of time to covert this talent into a super bowl title.  The Chargers are a contender this year, but not on the level they have been in the past, and the AFC West isn’t going to sit idle while San Diego gets its act together.  Unlike 2006, the Chargers need every strategic advantage they can get.  And an offense without Vincent Jackson, and with Legadu Naanee and Craig Davis doesn’t threaten offenses downfield the way that Rivers and Jackson do.

Now, Malcom Floyd is a legitimate downfield NFL receiver, and can replace Jackson adequately in that tole.  Floyd is 28 — a year older than Jackson — so there’s a lot of upside here.  Floyd is Floyd, not a future Jackson.  Davis is a wild card in that number two role.  Davis, who also goes by the moniker ‘Buster’, has been branded a bust by many observers after 30 catches in three seasons.  To be clear, Davis has been a limiting factor on the passing offense when he has been used.  But, if you throw out his rookie season, Davis has been a great target in limited time.  He has just been inactive and buried on the roster.  Conflicting evidence, yes, but if he plays well through the first three months of the season, the team doesn’t have to worry about extending Jackson.  Davis is not listed as a prospect because throughout this series, I have ignored players with three or more accrued seasons as potential breakout players, however, the Chargers appear to have a theme in expecting breakouts from players who have been around for some time.

Jackson earned a suspension for a DUI charge in the offseason, and he will miss the first three games of this season regardless.  Jackson does not have to sign his RFA tender to serve the suspension, so he will be eligible to return for the Week 4 game against Arizona.  The fact that it’s likely that the Chargers fans aren’t going to see Jackson before Week 11 against Denver means his name will be offered in trade talks all the way up to the trade deadline in Week 6 of the NFL season, or until he reports.  The Washington Redskins and the Seattle Seahawks want Jackson in their offense, but are unwilling to offer the first round pick the Chargers desire in a trade.  I continue to hear that this is more likely to get done than not, so Jackson might have played his final game in a Chargers’ uni.

The offensive line and running back situation should collectively be better this year.  Ryan Mathews is a rookie, yes, but offers much more explosion in the legs than LaDainian Tomlinson had his final two seasons.  Darren Sproles will play this season under a one year tender, and he remains the most dangerous screen back in the league.  3rd RB Marcus Mason provides surprisingly effective inside running, and of course, a legendary preseason performance.

The line will be strong once McNeill signs, and it can hold it’s own without him.  Brandyn Dombrowski will start at LT in McNeill’s place while he is unsigned.  LG Kris Dielman has missed just two games in the last four years, making three pro bowls in the process.  C Nick Hardwick is back, but he’s got a lengthy history of injury.  The Chargers have a great backup in Scott Mruckowski, and I might be alone in the opinion that this is a change worth making.  Nominally, it’s a competition, but I expect Hardwick to be on the ball in Week 1 — if he’s healthy.  Louis Vasquez is the team’s RG of the present and the future, a bright future.  Jeromey Clary starts at RT again.  Veteran tackle Tra Thomas is in camp as depth, but his retirement party will be held the day after McNeill signs his tender.

For the first time since he broke into the lineup in 2000, the Chargers will try to fill the void of NT Jamal Williams, who is in Denver after being released.  The guy who will be tasked with this is Antonio Garay, a 30 year old journeyman who played with the Bears before the Chargers.  Garay is perfect for the role, yet, is hardly a prospect since he will be 31 for the playoffs.  The Chargers have a young DE named Vaughn Martin who will see an increase in his playing time this year.  Luis Castillo has been disappointing for two seasons now, and he could lose reps to Alfonso Boone.  Ryon Bingham is over an injury that caused him to miss last season, and could start opposite Castillo.

Is linebacker still a Charger strength?  Shawne Merriman isn’t interested in being a Charger anymore, and the Chargers don’t appear to be interested in Merriman, who is no longer an explosive athlete.  Merriman’s reluctance to sign his tender can almost be described as casual.  He’ll come in for Week 10 just so he can hit free agency next year, and the Chargers will make no effort to re-sign him.  Shaun Phillips is still a nice pass rusher to have, but he’s declined each year in sacks since a career high in 2006.  2009 first rounder Larry English is going to take over for Merriman as the rush linebacker, but English has to grow up considerably to just turn into a league average linebacker.  The team is much stronger at ILB, where Brandon Siler narrowly avoided prospect status for the same reasons as Craig Davis.  He could start this year.  Bad news here, as third rounder Donald Butler will miss the 2010 season with an Achilles injury.  Stephen Cooper and Kevin Burnett are also in the mix to start.

I like the San Diego secondary in the wake of the Antonio Cromartie trade.  Antoine Cason should recover from a poor sophomore season, and look more like he did as a rookie in his starting role at RCB.  Quentin Jammer is at the top of his game across from him.  Donald Strickland and Nathan Vasher have been brought in to help Brandon Hughes provide depth for the two starters.  Eric Weddle is a star at free safety, but the other safety has been an issue.  Steve Gregory is more of a dime back type, but either C.J. Spillman, Darrell Stuckey, or Paul Oliver could play the other safety.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

It wasn’t easy going this whole article without mentioning Norv Turner or really gushing about how great of a player Philip Rivers is, but these two obviously both have significant pull in building the roster.  Teams with quarterbacks as strong as Rivers tend to keep just two quarterbacks, but in the wake of the trade returning a third round pick for QB Charlie Whitehurst, the Chargers are once again looking to pull in return on investment, drafting Jonathon Crompton (Tennessee) in the fifth round.  Crompton is certain to make the roster, but the team will likely not re-sign Billy Volek at the end of the year, in which case, Crompton should slide in as the Jim Sorgi to Rivers’ Manning.

Could the Chargers keep three fullbacks?  It’s possible if they hold only two TEs.  Mike Tolbert is the starter, but shares reps with Jacob Hester, who can also play RB.  Neither is a blocker, as Tolbert is primarily a receiver, and Hester is best as a singleback.  Billy Latsko is in camp, and could make the team as a goalline blocking back.  At TE, Kris Wilson is a very, very poor mans Antonio Gates.  Randy McMichael is in the mix for the second TE role.

Josh Reed was signed to be the fourth receiver if Vincent Jackson isn’t around this year.  He will back up Buster Davis and Legadu Naanee.  Expect Norv Turner to fall in love with undrafted rookie Jeremy Williams out of Tulane.  That should be the depth chart at WR, sans Vincent Jackson.

Tyronne Green should remain the backup at LG for Dielman.  Corey Clark is expected to remain the 9th lineman, but is in a serious camp battle with Tra Thomas to remain on the roster when McNeill signs.

8 defensive lineman is the Chargers magic number, with less need for LB depth.  The problem is, they have ten guys who are good enough to make the roster.  Garay and Cam Thomas make up the depth chart at nose tackle, where Alfonso Boone can play also.  Boone will backup Luis Castillo.  That’s four.  With Ryon Bingham back, Travis Johnson and Ogemdi Nwagbuo are on the cusp.  Vaughn Martin is safe, but Jacques Cesaire, the longest tenured member of the line, could be pushed by Derrick Jones, a second year player.

Donald Butler’s injury is bad news for the Chargers, but good news for Darry Beckwith, who now just has to hold off a pair of rookies, Mike Nixon and Kion Wilson to make the team.  If draft pick Brandon Lang flashes his rush potential, Jyles Tucker and Antwan Applewhite will have just one spot between them to win, and that spot might just be there until Shawne Merriman cares to show up.

The Chargers will have to make a cut at safety, as Paul Oliver, Steve Gregory, C.J. Spillman, and Darrell Stuckey can’t all have three spots.  One of those guys will be a starter, and one will be a release candidate.  Spillman could be in trouble as he’s a practice squad candidate.

See all of the previous LiveBall Roster Roundouts articles:  Bucs, Browns, Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Bengals, Bills, Lions, Giants, Dolphins, Broncos, Redskins, Cardinals.

Oakland Raiders (projected finish: 7-9)

Team synopsis: There’s a lot of talent in Oakland this season, but there’s a lot of talent in Oakland every year.  They lead the league, annually, in deeply flawed players with a penalty-happy tendency.  If you think that things are going to be night and day different this year, you’re fooling yourself.  However, with the AFC West division weakened, the schedule compliant, the balance between talent and attitude might actually blend perfectly enough for a real special season in Oakland.  There’s confidence abound on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, and on neither side is it completely unjustified.  As for a prediction of playoffs: we’ll believe it when we see it.

Best Players

• QB Jason Campbell (trade — Washington/2012 4th round pick)
• RB Michael Bush (drafted — Louisville/2007 4th round pick)
• TE Zach Miller (drafted — Arizona State/2007 2nd round pick)
• DT Richard Seymour (trade — New England/2011 1st round pick)
• DE/LB Trevor Scott (drafted — Buffalo/2008 6th round pick)
• CB Nnamdi Asomugha (drafted — Cal/2003 1st round pick)
• SS Tyvon Branch (drafted — Connecticut/2008 4th round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (drafted — Maryland/2009 1st round pick)
• WR Louis Murphy (drafted — Florida/2009 4th round pick)
• DE Matt Shaughnessy (drafted — Wisconsin/2009 3rd round pick)
• LB Rolando McClain (drafted — Alabama/2010 1st round pick)

The Raiders were ridiculed for their 2009 draft and praised for their 2010 draft in the immediate wake of the April amateur convention, but it’s possible that now, a year and a half later, there’s far more upside in the 2009 class than the 2010 one.  For one thing, us writers all enjoyed mocking Darrius Heyward-Bey during his rookie season — after all, Michael Crabtree held out for eight weeks and still had more catches and touchdowns with less drops in more attempts.  Heyward-Bey’s rookie season could explain everything that’s wrong with the Raiders: that they decided ahead of time not to take Crabtree, that they decided to play DHB before he earned the right to be on the field, and that they’d pair him with an offensive unit so terrible that they only way he could stand out would be to have a ridiculously poor season.  Mission accomplished, I suppose.

But the Heyward-Bey pick was really the first time since Rich Gannon’s retirement that the Raiders passed on the player who could help them most immediately for the player that they thought could help them most in the future.  That’s a significant step for the Raiders.  It took a second bout with Art Shell and the entire duration of the Lane Kiffin era to reach that point of building for the future and separating from the failures of the past, but I’ll be the first to say it: it seems counterproductive to rip the Raiders for moving in the right direction — even if the short term results have unbelievable entertainment value.

The Raiders focused on younger players in that 2009 draft, adding Michael Mitchell and Louis Murphy and Matt Shaughnessy, all of whom played the 2009 season at age 22 or younger.  None of the players filled immediate needs, either.  But if Heyward-Bey develops with Jason Campbell at the helm, and Murphy does as well, and Shaughnessy is the rush end on the Raiders for the next five seasons, and Mitchell takes over for Michael Huff at the end of the season, it’s going to be tough to knock this draft in hindsight.  The 2010 draft saw them take a highly rated linebacker who replaces a different highly rated linebacker that the team soured on, a defensive tackle who will learn left end on the fly so that Richard Seymour’s career can be extended inside, some project-able offensive linemen in the middle rounds, and a speedy receiver type, who unlike Heyward-Bey, has no defined receiving abilities.  In terms of pure focus, the largest difference is that the Raiders ignored short term needs in 2009 and drafted according to them in 2010.

Of course, the Raiders themselves are hardly sold on the idea of moving all their resources towards the future, and with owner Al Davis on the wrong experienced side of 80 years old, you cannot expect an all-out youth movement.  Lane Kiffin-JaMarcus Russell was supposed to be a youth movement, instead it was just…bad.  All-around.  Tom Cable is now in his third year as Raiders head coach, there’s no real youth in the coaching staff, and everyone is year-to-year in job security anyway.  It’s hard to confuse anything the Raiders are doing as well-intentioned rebuilding.

They’re getting better.  The drafts are getting better year by year, and the player personnel decisions are improving, to the point where you no longer have the head coach talking up rookie pass rushers in mini-camp, and then the owner releasing said player after the last preseason game.  The coaching staff is no longer a hastily assembled joke.  Cable is well-entrenched, and while Ted Tollner is still responsible for coordinating the passing game, quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is a bright offensive mind who will command the respect of the offensive players — and the job he has reportedly done with Heyward-Bey this offseason could not have come at a better time.

But where Jackson will really cash his check this season is the job he will do (or not do) with quarterback Jason Campbell, the player he hand picked to lead his Raiders offense.  Campbell was a good choice, and a shrewd personnel pickup — putting smart football men on your coaching staff will actually lead to a few of those.  There’s a certain amount of personal pride here for Jackson in terms of getting this one right, as there’s more than just his job with Oakland on the line.  There’s his reputation as a quarterback guru.  His work with Joe Flacco in Baltimore is appreciated, but if he can take Jason Campbell, put him on the Oakland Raiders, and produce actual, live offense, we might start molding the Canton bust this January.

Jason Campbell needs a strong, competent, healthy offensive line to be successful, and this unit is still the Raiders’ greatest weakness.  It’s best player continues to be LG Robert Gallery, who continues to be marred by injury.  Samson Satele and Chris Morris split the center duties, though neither does a particularly good job, Satele is clearly less of a weakness.  Neither is impressing this year, so third round pick Jared Veldheer is working at both center (where he could start), and backup LT.  Cooper Carlisle continues to put in good work at RG.  But even if they get the interior line fixed this year, and they’ve moved a bunch of guys around to get it settled, the tackle position is going to be a problem.  The first-teamers are Mario Henderson (LT), and Erik Pears (RT).  Khalif Barnes has also been moved inside, and now Langston Walker, one of the most tenured Raiders, is the primary backup at RT.  This could be a well-coached group that produces acceptable results, but the talent infusion needed here is obvious.

I’ve talked about what Campbell’s presence might do to help Darrius Heyward-Bey become a top receiver in this league (even, if similar to Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall, he needs someone else besides Campbell to excel), but another guy who could really flourish as a playmaker with Jason Campbell behind center is Darren McFadden.  Campbell is very good at a few things, but is excellent at only one, which is his sense of timing in throwing to his running backs.  Pinning him up in a downfield offense could be detrimental, unless you can take advantage of those downfield routes to free up your playmakers underneath.  When Jim Zorn’s Redskins were at their best (and it’s been awhile) his plays were clearing space for players like Chris Cooley, Ladell Betts, and Antwaan Randle El to work underneath.  Zach Miller and Darren McFadden should have really spectacular receiving seasons in the near term future, as Louis Murphy and DHB have mere opportunities.

Michael Bush is going to spearhead the running game this year, and to that I say: it’s about time.  Bush is in a contract year, but he had an excellent half season in 2008 and a pretty nice full season in 2009.  He was damaged goods coming out of college on a broken leg, but had he been able to play in the 2007 season, Bush might have done spectacular things in Lane Kiffin’s rushing attack.  Flat out, a big season for Bush will mean a vast improvement in the Raiders offense.

I’m a little more skeptical on the Raiders defense than most.  I think that this unit could be the one that does the team in.  I don’t think they’ll have trouble pressuring the quarterback, and I think Richard Seymour’s move to defensive tackle will really help the run defense, but as good as they can be in the front seven, the Oakland Raiders have a major, major flaw in short area pass defense.  Right now, the projected OLBs are Kamerion Wimbley and Trevor Scott.  Both were college defensive ends.  The projected MLB is rookie Rolando McClain, a prospect, but rookie linebackers are usually terrible in coverage.  Wimbley is expected to be the best of the three in pass coverage, and the team could always bring Ricky Brown off the bench in passing situations to replace McClain, but this is still a major weakness.

Going to predominantly man coverage concepts will assist these young defenders, as “cover the tailback” isn’t confusing.  But do the Raiders have a safety on the roster who can man cover a tight end?  Michael Huff, perhaps?  Maybe Mike Mitchell can do it, but the Raiders might not be willing to find out.  CB Chris Johnson is a half decent cover corner, but Stanford Routt is a fish out of water.  The Raiders know that they can limit the damage opposing receivers cause if they match Nnamdi Asomugha up on the oppositions no. 1 WR all season long, but they’ve been reluctant to do is, if only because the Raiders have long considered both their corners to be elite players.  Johnson, obviously, is not, but he’s better in the role than DeAngelo Hall was, and Fabian Washington was before him.

The Raiders don’t have to go that far in the past to find an elite defense, when they ranked 4th in football in DVOA for pass defense, and 3rd in total defense.  That team got 10 (unsustainable) sacks from an aging Warren Sapp, but placing Richard Seymour in that role creates a similar dynamic.  They got 11 sacks from Derrick Burgess, who isn’t an irreplacable part of the defense, and probably isn’t any better than Trevor Scott in the same role (Scott won’t be in the same role, Matt Shaughnessy and Quentin Groves will).  They got 3.5 sacks from Tommy Kelly, which, really isn’t beyond expectation for him this year.  They got two picks from Kirk Morrison, eight from Asomugha, and four more from Fabian Washington.  And that year, the Raiders offense was on the wrong side of dreadful.

The Raiders will never get eight picks from Asomugha again, because that would mean intercepting about 30% of passes thrown at him in a season (or a better receiver season than DHB’s 2009).  The Raiders have showed incredible loyalty to Stanford Routt for reasons completely unclear to rational human beings.  So they overdrafted the guy in 2005?  Not a big deal.  Routt was half-decent as a starter in 2007, but was terrible before that and has been terrible since.  In defense of the same decision makers, paying Chris Johnson instead of Fabian Washington after the 2007 season appears to have been the correct move.  Washington is in a contract year in Baltimore, as a necessity starter of sorts after Dominique Foxworth’s injury.  Johnson is a more complete defender, strong in run support.  But the NFL has changed considerably since 2006, mostly in the way that necessitates more than just two good corners.  There may be a chasm between Asomugha and Johnson, but the chasm between Johnson and the next-best (rookie CB Walter McFadden?) could be larger.

So the Raiders have pass coverage issues at linebacker, at corner, and with the safeties.  What could possibly go wrong against Houston, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis?  Anyone?  Those opponents are five out of the sixteen games on the Raiders’ schedule.  Maybe, you can knock Matt Schaub out of the game.  Maybe, you can hit Ben Roethlisberger enough to fluster him.  But the Raiders haven’t beaten the Chargers in 14 consecutive games, going all the way back to the 2002 team.  If the Raiders-Chargers games end up deciding the division, the Raiders have almost no defense except to outscore them.

With a better run defense, a better pass rush, and a shutdown corner at the top of his game, the Raiders are confident that they’ll get results from this group.  That’s the first step.  But if the offense doesn’t surprise, things will get very leaky very fast on this side of the ball.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

So many pressing camp questions such as: where does Kyle Boller fit on this team?

There’s a legitimately meaningful battle for third RB that could determine which way the team will take this offense, and I’d imagine Hue Jackson has a huge say in who wins it: Rock Cartwright is primarily a factor in the passing game (and special teams) these days, both as a blocker and a receiver.  Michael Bush is the team’s top pass blocker, but there’s not a lot of other reason to play him on third downs, which is where Cartwright can help the team.  But Michael Bennett is a better runner than Cartwright, and would be much more apt to holding no. 2 RB duties, pushing McFadden into a Reggie Bush type package player.  Then Cartwright is expendable.  They could keep four RBs, but it would be overkill to have four active RBs on game days.

The Raiders have a ton of fast receivers for depth behind their big three of Murphy, Heyward-Bey, and Chaz Schilens, who could be a star in this league if he could ever stay healthy (he won’t).  Among the speedsters: Shaun Bodiford, Yamon Figurs, Jacoby Ford, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Jonathon Holland (converted CB), Paul Hubbard, Nick Miller, and Todd Watkins.  That is the Raiders roster at receiver in it’s entirety.  Probability suggests that there’s a couple of actual football players among the bunch here, but damned if you can figure out in short time who they actually are.  It probably wouldn’t be too difficult to have them share a single jersey throughout the year, thereby circumventing roster restrictions.

John Owens is a nice pickup as a blocking tight end, though I’m not certain where he fits into the plan.  He could replace Tony Stewart, who’s remaining value is as a veteran safety valve for the quarterback.  Jason Campbell doesn’t need a designated safety value, take my word on this one.  Brandon Myers should step up to the role of no. 2 TE in the offense.

The offensive line makes my head hurt.  Your third round pick is listed as T/C.  No, this is not a joke.  The Raiders have no idea who is a tackle and who is not a tackle, and we’re only about a month away from the season.  It’s not — I repeat, not — a bad strategy to take fringe tackles and try them inside at guard, similar to a fringe MLB starting pitcher getting a shot in the bullpen, but the Raiders are doing this with every tackle on their roster, save the starters.  It’s possible the Raiders could keep an entire second team off offensive linemen, but I think if Jared Veldheer ends up starting opening day at Center (an improbability, to say the least), Samson Satele could be released (as well as Bruce Campbell being kicked back out to LT).  LT Mario Henderson should improve a little, which makes Jason Campbell happy, but it’s hard to imagine Veldheer not cracking the starting lineup somewhere.  This is not a good group.

Jay Richardson and Quentin Groves provide very good depth at the tackles.  Groves was acquired from Jacksonville for future considerations, and those considerations were used in the Kirk Morrison trade.  Groves is 6-3, 250, but he’s a run stopper first and foremost.  Richardson goes about 280, and he’s a pass rusher.  Raiders, they are.  Three DTs will be in the primary rotation: Seymour, Kelly, and John Henderson, picked up from Jacksonville on a one year basis (not a trade).  Desmond Bryant, William Joseph, and Chris Cooper are the depth, but the Raiders aren’t keeping 6 DTs (they’ll likely keep five).  The team likes Slade Norris as depth at outside LB, and Thomas Howard remains in play as a spot starter and nickel package player.  Travis Goethel or David Nixon will hang on as the seventh LB, but will primarily play special teams.

Recent signee Joe Porter will try to bounce draft pick Jeremy Ware as the fifth corner.  Michael Huff and Hiram Eugene will remain the free safeties.  In 2008, Eugene came out of nowhere to steal the former first rounder’s playing time.  In 2009, Huff got his job back and played well, at least most of the time.  Huff is running with the first team this year, but Eugene isn’t going to disappear.  Also, both have to worry about the team trying to push Mike Mitchell into a starting role, but the Raiders will probably wait just one more year before going with Tyvon Branch and Mitchell as their starting safety tandem.  Branch is nominally a strong safety, but is an excellent centerfielder in the preferred man-free coverage of the Raiders.  That gives him a lot of responsibility, but he’s good enough to handle it.