LiveBall Sports

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  And to all…I offer picks at a 61% (90-57) rate.

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Green Bay at Detroit With Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson unlikely to play, this one could get ugly fast.  The Lions have earned some good-will with that last second win over Cleveland, which should save them from the Boo Birds for at least ten more days.  In this one, I’ve got the Packers winning big.

Oakland at Dallas The Cowboys, despite largely mediocre play this season, can go to a hard-to-believe 8-3 with a win here.  Tony Romo is playing what I’d describe as “skittish” right now, but unlike Washington, Oakland will break if you commit to the run long enough.  That’s the only reason I don’t think the Cowboys are in for much of a battle.  It will be close for a half.

New York Giants at Denver With four consecutive losses, Denver is squarely on the ropes at home this week, and I like the Giants with a chance here to deliver the knockout blow.  I worry about that defense with Antonio Pierce out, but so far, the Knowshon Moreno pick in the middle of the first round looks like a big-time reach.  The Broncos offense simply can’t exploit the weaknesses on the Giants D, and their secondary isn’t going to suddenly get better against a diverse passing attack like New York’s.

Sunday’s Slate

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Atlanta is a close win over Washington away from being oh-for in the middle third of the season, but Tampa is exactly the team that the Falcons can get healthy against in a hurry.  Even with Josh Freeman providing ability from the quarterback position, Tampa still fell by 31 points to New Orleans.  Atlanta isn’t as good as New Orleans, but the margin of victory here should be in the double-digits.

Miami at Buffalo If Buffalo is going to continue to start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, voluntarily, then they will keep falling to superior opponents such as the Dolphins, or anyone else, really.

Washington at Philadelphia Philly beat down the Redskins so badly in Washington back in week seven that it’s hard to see this game, now in Philadelphia, being any better.  But the Redskins are a much different team than the one that lost to the Eagles in October.  This time, while the Eagles should win, the Redskins will be better prepared, particularly on defense.

Seattle at St. Louis Marc Bulger is out of this one, and his Rams career might be over.  The Seahawks have really not played that terrible this year, but it’s beginning to look a lot like last season for them.  Matt Hasselbeck is in the lineup, so they’ll get the nod, but this pick is more of an aversion of trying to pin down the specific conditions of the game than anything.

Carolina at New York Jets The Panthers’ dominant rushing attack has returned to form, and it still hasn’t helped Jake Delhomme out any.  With no semblance of a passing game to speak of, and a defense that simply isn’t as good as last year, the rushing attack gets marginalized.  On the Jets end, they’ll find themselves in a weird situation when they are actually the most talented team on the field.  Hard to predict how they will react to that, hopefully, they won’t stink up the joint.

Cleveland at Cincinnati This is the upset pick of the week.  Cincinnati lost at Oakland because they let the Raiders hang around, and hang around until the Raiders only needed one score in the final two minutes to tie the game.  Best case scenario, they were going to be taken to overtime by the Raiders, in a game which they led 14-0.  I don’t think they will ever have a lead in this one the way the offense is playing, and I’m going to take the Browns to get their second win.  Say what you want about Cleveland, but they are better than Oakland.

Indianapolis at Houston The Texans need to win 5 out of their final 6 games to make the post-season for the first time in franchise history, and while this game is by far the hardest remaining on the schedule (this assumes the Pats have nothing to play for in Week 17), I’d be much more optimistic about the Texans chances if they actually win the first game in this stretch.  The last time to win five consecutive games in order to make a wild card was the 2005 Redskins.  The 2008 Eagles had it just as difficult, but they slipped up in Washington in Week 16, and needed a whole lot of help to overcome that.  For the Colts, this is just another game on the way to 16-0.  For the Texans, this might be their season.  I don’t really feel like this is much of an upset, but I’m going with Houston, with their backs against the wall.

Kansas City at San Diego The Chargers are the top five team no one ever talks about.  Don’t look now, but their record is just as good as the Pats’ record (7-3), and the Bengals’ record (7-3), and they haven’t lost in over a month.  If the Colts, Saints, Vikings, and Pats are the four best teams in the NFL, are the Chargers not the next-best team?

Jacksonville at San Francisco These teams aren’t valued very differently right now among the pundits and fans alike, but the 49ers have proven to be the better of the two through 10 games.  Their record doesn’t show it right now, but that is why they play the games.  And on the field, the 49ers will win at home by at least a TD.

Chicago at Minnesota Earlier this week, I pointed out that the Vikings never really seem to play a quality opponent.  Consider:  they still have the Bears on the schedule this year.  Twice.  Only match-ups with the Cardinals and Bengals remain between the Vikings and a 15 and 1 record.  The Saints, undefeated, might be playing for the first overall seed this week against the Pats.

Arizona at Tennessee It’s very difficult to value these two opponents, with what the Titans starting 0-6 and looking the part, followed by a post-bye 4-0, and also looking the part.  If we accept the later stretch as the true value of the team, then the Titans are an easy pick.  But those six games still happened, and well, we’ve seen the Cardinals tear apart stronger secondaries than this one.  I just don’t really have a good sense of this one.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore It appears Ben Roethlisberger is slated to play in this one, but Troy Polamalu is not, and the Steelers are a completely different defense when #43 isn’t in the mix.  His absence makes the Ravens the better team on the field, and since it’s their field, it makes them a fairly safe pick.

Monday’s Throwdown

New England at New Orleans If you don’t think that New Orleans is going to take any personal pride in taking the Patriots to the woodshed to this week, I’d like to turn your attention to a game that happened in 2007 when Gregg Williams was coaching the Redskins defense.  52-7, with 14 points added in the non-competitive fourth quarter.  The Saints will be winning in the fourth quarter, and on behalf of all non-Belichick NFL coaches, we hope the safety blitzes don’t cease.  Sean Payton may call off the dogs, but the Saints’ defense is going all out for 60 minutes, regardless of the score.

Current record through Thursday night’s game comes out to: 80-52 (60.6%)

Indianapolis at Baltimore One of the biggest difference between this year’s Ravens team and last years team is the inability of the Ravens’ defense to establish it’s dominance on defense against opponents who can attack them multiple ways.  Their corners have underachieved, and Ed Reed is banged up and having a down year.  The Ravens will have no solution this week against Peyton Manning and the Colts, though you’ll definately see them win some battles.

Washington at Dallas Tony Romo has never really done much in this rivalry, as his best game against the Redskins came in 2007 when the Redskins defense was missing superstar safety Sean Taylor to a knee injury (Taylor, tragically, would never play again).  The Cowboys are in big trouble if Romo doesn’t have a big game against a struggling Redskins secondary who has soured on it’s most proven corner, Carlos Rogers.   I’m thinking the Cowboys will be victorious, but there could be long-term repercussions if they fail.

Cleveland at Detroit I’m picking the Detroit Lions because it’s hard to imagine any team being worse on offense than the Browns, but the Lions defense could end up as the goat of the game if they allow Brady Quinn to set his feet and throw accurate passes, it won’t be hard to establish an offensive rhythm that can systematically tear down a injured, not-good-to-begin-with Lions secondary, even for the Browns’ “weapons.”

San Francisco at Green Bay This is a pick that I’m swaying on, because one team (SF) rushes the passer really well, and the other team (GB) can’t protect the passer.  However, with Alex Smith starting for the Niners, you have to wonder just how poorly the Packers defense would need to play to let Frank Gore be the difference in this game.  I have to side with the Packers.

Buffalo at Jacksonville Dick Jauron, out as head coach of the Bills.  Perry Fewell, in.  Trent Edwards, out as quarterback of the Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick, in.  Maurice Jones-Drew will really make a big difference in this one as the Jags try to seperate themselves from the pack in the AFC.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Here’s the only team in the NFL who won’t actually be able to get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers should win by at least three touchdowns.

Seattle at Minnesota Minnesota really seems to play a bad team every week.  I don’t know if that means anything come playoff time, as they could/should secure a first round bye, pending how well they perform in divisional play against the Bears.  I don’t know if I’d like this team at home against, say, the Cardinals in the postseason.  However, first things first, the Vikings will handle the Seahawks at home fairly easily.

Atlanta at New York Giants With Matt Ryan continuing to struggle through his sophomore season with his accuracy and decision making, and Michael Turner slated to miss this game, the Giants figure to snap their four game losing streak at home.  With a little help from the Redskins this week, they will once again be the favorite in the NFC East.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay I think this week will end the Saints run at an undefeated season.  They are a very good football team, but unlike the Colts, they really don’t have a legitimate shot at 19-0 and a super bowl championship.  The Bucs are at home, and I think Josh Freeman has what it takes to knock the Saints from the ranks of the undefeated.

Arizona at St. Louis I’ll go with another upset this week, and say that the Rams will beat the Cards at home by hitting Kurt Warner early and often.  Stephen Jackson is having a great year, and quietly, the OL of the Rams is greatly improved.

San Diego at Denver It’s hard for me to see Denver fixing everything that is wrong with their team in one-week, especially in a week where Kyle Orton wasn’t able to practice.  This team has been largely exposed in the last few weeks, and they still have a lot of building to do before the become one of the leagues’ elite.  The good news is that: if they can beat the Chargers this game, they might get some meaningful playoff experience for their young talent, even if they are an afterthought once they are there.

New York Jets at New England Part of me wants to think that the Jets are getting a really raw deal here before this game, as they already beat the Patriots once this year, and that they are being treated like a homecoming opponent for the Patriots in the media.  Then I see that the Jets are 1-5 since week four, and probably should be treated like such a team.

Cincinnati at Oakland One team that will never need to worry about being unfairly underrated is the Oakland Raiders, as the Cincinnati Bengals have shown that they are a multi-faceted football team who wins games above all.

Philadelphia at Chicago These are two franchises who are on a losing-type slide that threatens their entire collective season, and it’s not hard to predict based on history that Donovan McNabb and the Eagles will answer the bell, while Jay Cutler and the Bears will watch from home this January.

Tennessee at Houston If Houston can end the Titans three game winning streak, and put to rest a miracle playoff run from this Titans team (and who knows what to expect if they move to 4-6), it’s probably safe to conclude that the Texans are for real.  The key will be taking away Vince Young.  Yep, that’s correct: even with Chris Johnson averaging better that 6 YPC, it’s Young that can’t have a good day if the Texans expect to be legitimate.  Young is on film now, and oh by the way, the Texans have had two weeks to look at his film.  If coach Gary Kubiak has any value as a head coach, his team will exploit some of Young’s undisciplined tendencies and win big.

Chicago at San Francisco The Bears do not play defense well right now, and they do not play offense well right now.  That’s usually a losing combination, but since they always play special teams well, you just never know.  I predict a lot of defined reads for Alex Smith all night, which will lead to impressive ball distribution and a pair of Frank Gore TDs tonight in a 49ers win.

Atlanta at Carolina Atlanta’s defense has really looked terrible in recent weeks and the Panthers‘ offensive woes are no longer at such a dire level which you might see in Cleveland or Oakland.  Right now, the Panthers can run the ball and ride their defense to a six win season.

Tampa Bay at Miami The Dolphins rushing machine gets it’s chance to show the Bucs how to rebuild in a way that maskes talent deficiencies, and the defense will have no issue battering around Josh Freeman a little bit.

Detroit at Minnesota Coming off of a bye week, this is pretty cruel of the NFL schedule-makers.  I know they didn’t know Brett Favre would be 1) in purple, and 2) dominating the league as such, but the Vikings were one of the opponents Lions fans could get excited about playing.  With a rested Vikings team, this now looks like a massacre.

Jacksonville at New York Jets Really, this game simply comes down to Jacksonville’s ability to avoid the stupid execution errors in the passing game that prevent them from being one of the better offenses in the league.  History sees a trend and so do I:  have to go with the Jets here.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh The last time Pittsburgh got to play an upstart 6-2 division contender in the midst of a dream season, the Washington Redskins got brutally exposed.  Let’s just say I think the Steelers will have this one wrapped up with ten minutes to go in the third quarter.

New Orleans at St. Louis The Rams will win because, because….ah, darn.  Saints take it in a rout.

Buffalo at Tennessee Are the Vince Young-led Titans for real?  Yes, yes they are.  Here comes that reality: Buffalo wins.

Denver at Washington I actually like the Redskins in an upset bid.  I say this knowing the Redskins will have no answer for Elvis Dumerville, but any chance it looked like the Broncos had to win in this game preseason involved the domination of the Redskins defensive line by a much younger, much better Broncos OL.  That line now starts guys like Tyler Polumbus and Russ Hochstein.  If it comes down to the Redskins’ ability to score 17 points against an aging, aggressive Broncos secondary, Santana Moss might earn his paycheck this week.

Kansas City at Oakland The Raiders come off of a bye and get Darren McFadden, Robert Gallery, and Chaz Schilens back.  Those are three of the four best offensive players for the Raiders.  Kansas City can close this talent gap by simply playing as if the opponent were the Raiders.  Given their recent history (1-2 since 2008), they even do that wrong.

Seattle at Arizona It’s hard for any team to handle Arizona if they get down early, but the Seahawks are playing shorthanded every week.  In one of the more somber changing of the guard in recent memory, I like the Cardinals.

Dallas at Green Bay In a fourth quarter shootout, I’ll take the Cowboys to move to 7-2.  Green Bay really should catch a lazy team napping, but I think the Dallas defense has enough to prove that they’ll keep the Packers offense under wraps for the early part of the game.  Then, who knows?

Philadelphia at San Diego San Diego is good enough, in my estimation, to beat two NFC East “powers” in back to back weeks.  It really hasn’t been an impressive run to 5-3, but honestly, did you really think the Broncos were going to win the AFC West?  Really?  Where were you last year?  The Chargers start the ascension to get Norv Turner into the playoffs for a third straight season.

New England at Indianapolis:  Pats.

Baltimore at Cleveland Brady Quinn is free!  And the Cleveland defense should be good enough to keep the Browns in this game.  Ravens by a field goal.  And not a Steve Hauschka FG.  21-18.

Washington at Atlanta Washington’s offense has a really good chance to get healthy this week against a reeling Falcons’ defense, but likewise, Matt Ryan should get healthy against the Redskins’ secondary this week.  Falcons take the game by a ten point margin.

Arizona at Chicago The Bears should win this game, as long as they don’t spend too long trying to run the football against a very good run defense.  The Bears’ pressure schemes can break down Arizona’s protections, and Kurt Warner is going to struggle to produce.

Baltimore at Cincinnati If the Bengals want to prove that they don’t need a TD pass in the final :30 to beat a division opponent, this would be a good week to prove that.  For me, I’ll side with the better team, the Ravens.

Houston at Indianapolis This game is being described as the biggest game in the history of the Houston Texans.  It’s not really, for one thing, it’s not like they become the favorite to win the division even if they win today.  As for winning, even though the Colts secondary is weakened, I don’t think Peyton Manning can be stopped, and certainly not by the Texans.

Kansas City at Jacksonville Um.  Ew.  I’ll say that the Chiefs win.

Miami at New England As the media waits with baited breath as to what new wrinkles the wildcat will bring, the Patriots will employ the tried and true method of lighting up the scoreboard, making a running game irrelevant.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay Josh Freeman makes his Buccaneers debut against an opponent who knows how to make it very, very hard on a rookie: the Packers.

Carolina at New Orleans Peter King wants to know how this game can sport a double digit line after Carolina ran the ball on the Cards last week.  Just watch the Saints go.

Detroit at Seattle At home, the Seahawks should be able to pick up the pieces and beat a Lions team fighting hard to stay relevant.

San Diego at New York Giants By far the most intriguing match-up of the day, the Chargers are a good opponent for the Giants offense to get right against.  Problem is, that you just can’t slow down the now multi-faceted Chargers offense with convention defensive methods.  The Giants will be slow to adapt, and they’ll drop to 5-4.

Tennessee at San Francisco If Alex Smith is for real, this game will be the litmus test.  Five years tell me that the Titans will have a solution for him and Vernon Davis, and offer plenty of opportunities for Vince Young to win a game.

Dallas at Philadelphia Right now, the way the Eagles defense is playing, it’s not realistic that any team would be able to beat them.  The Cowboys are functioning at a high level, but ultimately, are just another team who has little chance to handle the Eagles, especially if Donovan McNabb is on.

Pittsburgh at Denver I predict that Ryan Clark will not play with that sickle-cell trait, but with Troy Polamalu back in the lineup, it won’t matter.  The Steelers are the best team on the field, and will get out of Denver with a victory.

Denver at Baltimore Both teams come off a bye which means that even after this game ends, you’ll have to take what happens there with a grain of salt.  Baltimore benefits more from having the bye: they’ll need Jared Gaither back at LT to have a chance, but I’m going to predict that the Broncos magical start will last for one more week.

Houston at Buffalo This is exactly the kind of game that can make Buffalo’s season with a win, and you just can’t dismiss them easily at home.  Of course, there’s little doubt that Houston is the better team.  It’s not an easy game to pick, but I’ll say that Houston holds on in the fourth quarter.

Cleveland at Chicago The Chicago OL is making a change that LG, with Josh Beekman back in there for the ineffective Frank Omiyale.  The other thing that will ensure the Bears victory: poor Cleveland pass rush.  And blocking.  And quarterback play.

Seattle at Dallas There’s no doubt the Seahawks will be ready for this match-up.  Can they defend what Dallas can do to them?  It really depends on how diverse the Cowboys are in their attack.  Want an educated guess?  Not enough to beat the Seahawks at home.

Miami at NY Jets As much as I admire the way Miami runs their offense, and realize that the Jets defense is a shell of what it was at the beginning of the season, Miami barely held off the Jets last time at home, and now on the road, they don’t really have a great chance to beat New York.

San Francisco at Indianapolis I don’t agree with Reggie Bush that the Saints can or will go undefeated.  But the longer they go without a loss, the less focus will be on the team that actually can: the Colts.

NY Giants at Philadelphia Donovan McNabb is really struggling right now, but the Giants’ secondary is the perfect remedy for him and the rest of the Eagles offense.

St. Louis at Detroit Detroit is bringing their A game with Stafford and Calvin Johnson back in the lineup.  I just happen to think the Rams are a little bit better on both side of the ball.

Oakland at San Diego On opening night, the Raiders held the lead as late in the game at the two minute warning.  With this game in San Diego, the Chargers should lead from the second minute on.

Jacksonville at Tennessee Does Vince Young give the Titans a chance to get their first win.  It will be hard to be less productive than Kerry Collins was, but I think Young plays right into the hands of what the Jaguars want to do defensively.

Minnesota at Green Bay This game really wasn’t all that close the first time these two teams played.  I think you’ll see a better effort from the Packers’ defense, but more of the same from the Packers’ offense.  The Vikings will win a close run.

Carolina at Arizona To say that the Cardinals’ game was the beginning of the end for Jake Delhomme ignores the periodic disaster of a game he struggled with all of last year.  To say that this Cardinals team could spell the end of the Delhomme era, well, that’s just stating the obvious.

Atlanta at New Orleans I’m picking the Saints to stay undefeated along with the Broncos and Colts for one more week.

Picking the thirteen games that will kickoff today and tomorrow.

Season record: 54-36 (60%).

Green Bay at Cleveland Cleveland has struggled to move the ball all year, and they’re more likely to give up points on offense than they are to score them.  Green Bay can’t protect their quarterback, but he’s not going to make enough mistakes for it to matter.  Packers.

San Francisco at Houston With the way Matt Schaub is finding seams in coverage, the 49ers’ gameplan to slow down Steve Slaton won’t much matter.  The world wants to see what Michael Crabtree is made of, but the Texans’ defense is coming together at the right time, specifically the pass rush (not so much the coverage).

San Diego at Kansas City In a game that could end up being a barn burner, Kansas City won’t really be able to keep up, as the Chargers get back to .500.

Indianapolis at St. Louis I have no thoughts on this game.  Just a pick.  Colts.

New England at Tampa Bay (London, Wembley Stadium).  The grass at Wembley stadium never holds up, which will negate a lot of the speed advantage the Pats have.  It won’t negate the chasm in coaching experience.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh Antwan Winfield is out.  Troy Polamalu is in.  Big Ben’s line is healthy.  And the Steelers will win by a TD.

Buffalo at Carolina Does Carolina deserve to be 3-3?  Not at all.  But after this game they will be.  Panthers win.

NY Jets at Raiders I’m pretty confident that the Jets have jet to fix what is wrong with them.  The Raiders may never fix what is ailing them, but they’ll very visibly look like the best team on the field today.  Both Mark Sanchez and JaMarcus Russell are young quarterbacks whose best days in the league might already be behind them.

Chicago at Cincinnati The Bengals are the team who is better in the trenches, and the Bears are the team will will win this game.

Atlanta at Dallas Because of the way they can run the football, and toss the football, and kick the football, I think the Cowboys can outlast the Falcons, who have some minor issues to sort out.

New Orleans at Miami Miami can do a lot of things to attack Gregg Williams defense, but they can’t do it in a manner that would catch Drew Brees and the Saints, who will light up the scoreboard against Miami rookie CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

Arizona at NY Giants If this game was happening between the 09 Cardinals and the 08 Giants, the match-up would probably favor the Cardinals.  However, with the G-Men really spinning the football in the passing game, and Eli Manning looking comfortable in the pocket, the improvement in the Cardinals run game will not mean much.  Giants throw it, and win big.

Philadelphia at Washington Washington’s defensive line is going to surprise a lot of people with it’s dominance of the Eagles’ OL, but a Redskins win would require Donovan McNabb to struggle against the rush.  Of course, he probably will.  I’m taking the Eagles anyway.

Week six already?  Holy crap!

Season Record: 45-31 (59%)

Houston at Cincinnati If this game comes down to Carson Palmer picking on the Texans “secondary” in a game winning drive situation, then you have to like them.  But who says it won’t be the Texans who have the ball last?

Detroit at Green Bay Calvin Johnson, out.  Matt Stafford, out.  Mark Tauscher, in.  Better protection gives the Packers a comfortable victory.

St. Louis at Jacksonville St. Louis will come closer to a win this week then they have at any point in the past five weeks, but the Jaguars should be expected to hold on and win.

Baltimore at Minnesota The Vikings have a lot of offensive holes that I expect the Ravens to be able to attack, but in a close one, the Vikings are still the most complete team at this point in the year.

NY Giants at New Orleans The Giants may be a great team, but coming off of the bye, the Saints appear to be an unbeatable team.  They’ll win.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Troy Polamalu returns, Derek Anderson stays.  Steelers in a blowout.

Carolina at Tampa Bay The Bucs are slowly improving under Raheem Morris, but the Panthers can keep them winless for at least one more week.

Kansas City at Washington The Redskins, for all of their faults, are undefeated at home this year, and Kansas City will not end that.  I’m taking Washington.

Philadelphia at Oakland I could abstain from picking, but I’d like the free point, so I’ll take the Eagles by a 17-21 point margin.

Arizona at Seattle The Cardinals managed a thoroughly unimpressive victory against the Texans with a horrendous second half that featured a INT returned for a TD, a goal line stand, and a lot of awful football.  This week, they’ll fall to the Seahawks.

Tennessee at New England I really think Tennessee has a good shot against a reeling Patriots team, but I still don’t see the Pats losing in consecutive weeks.  It’ll be close.

Buffalo at NY Jets Those three weeks were fun while they lasted, but they dumped the Bills at 1-2, and since then, the complete lack of talent on this team has carried the day.  Today, the Jets rebound easily.

Chicago at Atlanta Last year, the Falcons had a game winning FG drive that spanned six seconds and one play to take a win from Kyle Orton.  This year, they’ll beat Jay Cutler, and won’t take til the last second.  Maybe the last minute.  Falcons.

Denver at San Diego San Diego needs this win in the worst way, or their consecutive string of playoff apperances and division titles could be over in October.  I think the Chargers will get this win by the skins of their teeth.

Cincinnati at Balitmore Two three and one teams will play for the right to lead the NFC North through the month of October today.  It’s the Bengals though who have been doing it with defense, and the Ravens have been doing it with offense, relatively speaking.  If things hold steady, I like the Bengals to get a big road win, although this game is basically a toss up, and the Ravens are the team with more upside.

Cleveland at Buffalo With the way the Bills have been playing, it would be hard not to think the Browns will get their first win today.

Washington at Carolina One of the worst teams in football to date has been the Carolina Panthers.  It’s been embarassing to watch this team fall all over itself in the past two weeks.  The Redskins have not been quite as bad, but you’d have to think that if the Panthers can correct just a few things after the bye, they’re a good bet to win.

Pittsburgh at Detroit Daunte Culpepper is under center for the Lions today which makes them a much better team overall.  But the Steelers offense will not struggle with the likes of the Lions and Culpepper has no chance to keep up the pace.

Dallas at Kansas City The Chiefs sit at 0-4 right now, and the turnaround is not coming just yet.  Not this week, at least.  The Cowboys know how critical it is to get to 3-2 in the NFC East, and against the Chiefs, they’ll be able to take care of business.

Oakland at NY Giants It would be easy to predict that the Raiders will show a sign of life, but that the Giants will still win the game.  I’m predicting you’ll see no such thing from the Raiders.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia You already know that Tampa Bay is winless on the year, but have you heard that the Andy Reid’s Eagles have never lost a game coming off of a bye week?  Take the Eagles.

Minnesota at St. Louis Another matchup between a winless team and an undefeated team?  St. Louis will not break their winless streak in this one, and they will not break Minnesota‘s bid at an undefeated season.

Atlanta at San Francisco This one pits two teams who are probably a bit overrated, but certainly among the best teams in their respective divisions to this point, against each other.  The 49ers have earned their 3-1 start, but they are just the kind of team that the Falcons have preyed on the last two seasons.

Houston at Arizona I still don’t buy the Texans, but I hardly think that a bye week is going to fix what has been ailing the Cardinals.  The Texans offense has been playing as good as it ever has, and with the Cards sputtering, I’ll give the nod to the Texans.

New England at Denver We’ll let the legend of Josh McDaniels grow for one more week before we get to chip away at his legacy.  Denver is in store for another late season collapse, but the Broncos will beat the Patriots at home today.

Jacksonville at Seattle Seattle’s offensive line has been perhaps the most disappointing unit in the NFL to date.  Their secondary is a close second.  This situation isn’t as bad as last year with the receivers actually being both healthy and productive, but the Jacksonville Jaguars need not to set the world on fire in order to move to 3-2 after today.

Indianapolis at Tennessee This is an easy pick.  I don’t know what 0-4 Tennessee Titan team I can expect to see, but I know that no matter what version of them shows up this week, the Colts will beat the living daylights out of them.

NY Jets at Miami A grind-em-out ball control offense vs. a true rookie quarterback?  Throw out those records, and give me the Miami Dolphins at home.

These are my picks for the week.  I’ll try to post frequently today to make up for the fact that I’m not actually making this an article:

Bears over Lions, Player: Jay Cutler
Bengals over Browns, Player: Robert Geathers
Texans over Raiders, Player: Owen Daniels
Colts over Seahawks, Player: Donald Brown
Jaguars over Titans, Player: David Garrard
Giants over Chiefs, Player: Eli Manning
Ravens over Patriots, Player: Dominique Foxworth
Redskins over Buccaneers, Player: Clinton Portis
Bills over Dolphins, Player: Lee Evans
Saints over Jets, Player: Jonathon Vilma
Broncos over Cowboys, Player: Brandon Marshall
Rams over 49ers, Player: Laurent Robinson
Steelers over Chargers, Player: Santonio Holmes
Packers over Vikings, Player: Aaron Rodgers

Let’s hit these where it hurts.

Season record to date: 13-19.  Ouch.

Browns at Ravens

I’m thinking you’re going to get a great wire to wire effort out of the Browns,  but since I bothered to employ The Wire as a descriptive term about a football game, you know I’m going with Baltimore.

Titans at Jets

I think the 0-2 Titans are just a better team than the 2-0 Jets.  They are more fundamentally flawed than the Jets are, but they also have all the firepower in this match-up.

Giants at Bucs

Here’s your upset special in the early games.  The Giants put safety Kenny Phillips on IR to go along with a completely embarassing list of injuries in the secondary.  I think Byron Leftwich gets his first win as quarterback of the Buccaneers, and they will prevent the Giants from starting 3-0.

Packers at Rams

The Rams are getting better, and the pass rush of the Rams vs. the poor pass blocking of the Packers makes an interesting match-up that could spell an upset in this game.  Until the Rams show 60 strong minutes of play though on both sides of the ball, I’ll sit with the Packers.

Chiefs at Eagles

No Brian Westbrook?  No Donovan McNabb?  That will make it tougher, but I’m still on the Eagles.  Dwayne Bowe is out for the Chiefs

Falcons at Patriots

This is an interesting game, but as Matt Ryan went through his schedule last year, he did not see a whole lot of creative defenses.  I think the Patriots defense, much-maligned to this point, will offer up some variations that the Falcons have not seen, and despite a slowish passing game, the Patriots will win comfortably.  This team never loses two in a row.

Washington at Detroit

With Randy Thomas out, the Redskins will struggle on offense, but they have a nice remedy this week in the Lions.

49ers at Vikings

My blowout pick of the week.  Nothing goes right for San Francisco in the Metrodome.  Extra prediction: neither of these cities have a team in the MLB playoffs.  Vikings roll to 3-0.

Jaguars at Texans

I’m not sold on the Texans quite yet, although they can make a believer out of me with a convincing win to go to 2-0 in the division and drop the Jags to 0-3.  Until then, I’m taking Jacksonville.

Saints at Bills

The Bills are a good September team, but do you think they will slow down the Saints?  Do you really, really think they are going to stop the Saints?  Yeah, I don’t think so either.

Bears at Seahawks

With the entire Seahawks roster banged up, I’ll go with the Bears to get a victory in which they will lead from the 2nd quarter on.

Steelers at Bengals

A lot of experts are seeing a Bengals upset, but with an inconsistent offense that will need to score 21-24 against the Polamalu-less Steeler defense to be in the game in the 4th quarter, I’ll take the champs and ask the Bengals to prove they can take care of business at home.

Dolphins at Chargers

Miami is going to 0-3 for the second time in three years.  Unlike 2007, the rebound is coming.  They just aren’t a match for the Chargers.

Broncos at Raiders

The Broncos have ridden their defense to 2-0, and now that defense faces it’s biggest challege: the Raiders.

Yes.  The biggest challege to date for the Broncos defense: JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders.  Oh boy.  It’s still going to be a long season in Denver if they do not win this game.

Colts vs. Cardinals

Can I pick against Peyton Manning two weeks in a row?  No.  No I can not.  So it’s the Colts.

Panthers vs. Cowboys

The Panthers have not been very good this year.  But with Marion Barber looking like a scratch from this game, this becomes a great matchup for the Panthers.  Limited interior running game for the Cowboys, a lot of passing in this game, and a Cowboys defense that has zero sacks and limited pressures in two games.  Ick.  The Panthers add to the length of time the Cowboys will have to wait to win at Jerry-world.