LiveBall Sports

Despite the fact that week one is more or less in the books, I’m still rolling out the projections.  Here are the final two divisions, saved because half of the remaining teams play tonight.  Here is part I and part II of the preview.

AFC East

LiveBall Sports QDS Projections:

Patriots 10.9 wins
Jets 7.8 wins
Dolphins 7.3 wins
Bills 6.9 wins

Like the NFC North and the AFC West alike, the AFC East is a division where there is a “winner”, and then there’s everybody else.  As fans, we do not think of the New York Jets as an afterthought, but a lot of systems do.  Whether or not a system that involves an inconsistent passing game can lead the Jets to a title remains to be seen, but it’s hard to act like it’s likely they’ll be able to win 9 or more games on a year to year basis.  What the Patriots can do with Tom Brady allows them to be much more stable team atop the division year to year.  Rex Ryan’s public call to beat the Patriots is a good example of why the Jets aren’t ever likely to go and win the super bowl despite the fact that they’ve been to two straight AFC Championships: they can hang with anybody, but no game is too easy.

The Dolphins and Bills each have interesting longshots at being the second best team in the division.  The Bills are a much improved team, as yesterday’s massacre of the Chiefs showed.  The Dolphins will play tonight, and they’re better than their record (particularly their home record) showed last year.  I don’t know how much they actually improved in the offseason, most of the time they seemed to be shooting themselves in the foot with their personnel moves.  Either would be a full on even match for the Jets in their four head to head games.

Are the Patriots a true super bowl contender?  Well, they are not as good as the Steelers, but I’d take even odds between the Chargers and Pats as the second best team in the conference, with the Texans a not-so-distant fourth.  And so through that lens, the Patriots look really good as a super bowl pick, which I suppose is why they are so popular.  People have memories long enough to remember 2006 when the Pats used to have success in the playoffs and 2004, when they last won the super bowl.  The Chargers (and really, to be blunt, Steelers) are not getting the benefit of the doubt the way the Patriots are.

AFC West

Chargers 10.0 wins
Raiders 7.5 wins
Broncos 7.1 wins
Chiefs 6.4 wins

Norv Turner seems to take a lot of flak for the way the Chargers are treated by random fluctuations of luck: this is still a really good team after all — one that many are taking to win the super bowl.  But because the Chargers have Turner in tow, its more difficult to view their week one nailbiter with the Vikings at home as something that should have happened in a football season.  Instead it feels like the same old Chargers, a notion bolstered by the images of Philip Rivers screaming at his head coach in the first half trailing by ten points.

Of course, if we ignore the images of failure that seem to stick to Turner better than other coaches, we can see that Donovan McNabb, who was on pace to break the Redskins single season passing yardage record before being benched last season, was held to 39 yards passing in this game on 15 attempts.  Greg Manusky is going to be just fine as Chargers defensive coordinator.  With that said, the special teams, which could not have possibly started off this season worse than they finished last year, managed to allow a kick return for a touchdown on the opening kickoff and have their kicker, Nate Kaeding, knocked out for the rest of the game.  So basically, the impossible task of getting worse on special teams…it may have only been one play, but the Chargers were able to do it.

I like the Raiders and Broncos a lot more than the Chiefs this year.  Kansas City looked worse than expected yesterday at home against the Bills, and I didn’t expect very much at all from them.  Sure, the Bills may have something going, but this particular result had far more to do with the Chiefs being a dreadful team.  Even with competition like the Raiders and Broncos, this is a last place team.

We will learn plenty about the Raiders and Broncos tonight.  The Broncos will need to transition from a team that threw it around under Josh McDaniels to a team that is balanced under John Fox, and Kyle Orton looked very comfortable in going back to his roots from his Chicago days.  It’s a nice start, but it’s just that, a start.  And the longer the Broncos keep Tim Tebow on their roster, the hotter Orton’s seat will get when the team doesn’t win.  And Orton’s defense still isn’t very good.

Jason Campbell might not have much of a defense either in Oakland, I guess we’ll know more after tonight.  The Raiders will need to exploit Broncos rookie RT Orlando Franklin with DE Lamarr Houston, really the only strong match-up they have on defense.  The Raiders could have a great defensive year with the talent on their front seven, but it relies almost exclusively on the ability of second year players Houston and LB Rolando McClain.  The offense could shine this year, if only they can keep Campbell upright against speed rushers.  But with that running game, head coach Hue Jackson should be able to scheme around his offensive weakpoints on the line.  There’s a lot of ifs in Oakland to project a great season, but a return to last year’s mark of 8-8 should not be entirely unexpected.

Part 1 of the NFL preview can be seen here.

NFC East

LiveBall Sports QDS Projections:

Eagles 10.0 wins
Giants 9.5 wins
Cowboys 8.1 wins
Redskins 7.1 wins

As stated in part one, the win projections on this entire division feel inflated because I’m using an equation instead of a simulation based projection.  And so, yes, saying the Giants are going to challenge for 10 wins seems foolish given the premises.  But they’re one of the favorites for this division.  The half win projection difference between the Giants and Eagles is almost entirely a strength of schedule thing.  I’d bet a one-win under on each of these teams for the year: 6 for the Redskins, 7 for the Cowboys, 9 for the Giants, and 9 for the Eagles, which would put the NFC East a game under .500 this year.

The preseason struggles of the Eagles and Giants might not mean a lot, but its a nice development for the Redskins and Cowboys, two teams who wouldn’t have much of a chance to win a strong division in a standard year, but with the NFC East a bit down this year, the Redskins and the Cowboys have hope this year that they might not otherwise have.  In particular, the Redskins projection is up a bit over the pre-free agency projection thanks to improvements made on the defensive line.

NFC West

Cardinals 7.8 wins
49ers 6.8 wins
Rams 6.2 wins
Seahawks 5.5 wins

The Cardinals expectation for 8-8 is not based off of an offseason acquisition, but off of recent history: above .500 in both 2008 and 2009, making them by far the class of this division.  The Rams should be better on defense this year, but 6.2 wins may be pushing the limits of an offense where Sam Bradford is working with C+ players.

I like the Seahawks a lot more than 5.5 wins suggests, and I think they’ll be back atop this division before long.  For the Cardinals, it’s nice that they made an aggressive trade to strike while the division is there for the taking.  I don’t think the 49ers will be quite as good as 7 wins this year, but if you throw last season out of the results (6 wins, mind you), they’ve been the most consistent team in the division over the last few years.  Predicting 4-12 or worse for the 49ers just wouldn’t follow from the premises.

The only team that figures to decline from last season is St. Louis, the team which most observers expect to improve.  The Seahawks are the easy money pick for last because they have very little upside at the QB position or on defense.  And as usual, this division will struggle yet again.

AFC South

Texans 10.1 wins
Titans 8.2 wins
Colts 8.0 wins
Jaguars 5.3 wins

Observers are far too down on the Colts this season.  This is not going to be “their year,” quite clearly, but this is an offensive unit that could make Kerry Collins look similar to Brett Favre at the end of his career.  And with Mathis and Freeney healthy and rushing the passer, the Colts are going to be in every game they play this year.  The Texans won’t be able to cakewalk them in Week 1.

Now, I don’t think anyone is particularly shocked by that Jags projection, which is even not penalizing the Jags for dumping David Garrard (there is no mechanism by which they would be preemptively punished for Luke McCown being a below replacement QB, something we just don’t know he is), but doesn’t see a bounceback year for the defense, and mostly sees the Jags much as the same team they were last season, but without the luck, and with a tough second place schedule.

The Titans on the other hand are really highly projected, not independent of the fact that this was a 13-3 team just three years ago, and could rebound to just below that level.  With that said, this roster does not project to rebound.  Chris Johnson is maybe the best in the league at what he does, and a last place schedule will fit the Titans well, but I don’t see 8 wins (or even a competitive year).  Of course, the reason for running the numbers in the first place is to get a couple results that make you go, “huh?” and rethink my position on a team.  Even after reflection, I’m not a buyer on the Titans.

AFC North

Steelers 13.1 wins
Ravens 9.7 wins
Browns 6.6 wins
Bengals 5.0 wins

My impression from the preseason was that the Ravens just aren’t going to be in it at all this year.  Their offensive line is a sieve.  I expect regression from their quarterback position this year.  The receiving corps may be new, but it’s just not very good.  Ray Rice has one good season in three as a pro.   Todd Heap is out at TE, and who knows how Ed Dickson will fit into that offense?  With the offense looking like that and the defense in full on age decline, this has the potential to be a disaster season for the Ravens.

A horrible year for Baltimore would open a door for Cleveland.  These projections are not high on Cleveland, particularly looking at their defense as a major work in progress and not seeing the impact from the rookie class typically expected in a surprise team.  But Cleveland can throw it around on offense, and they have the balance to run the ball and close out the clock in close games, something they struggled with at the beginning of last season.  With strong special teams, this offense will be the best friend of that defense.

And I don’t think I would write off Dick Jauron’s defense either.  It’s clearly understaffed at two of the three levels (the secondary is the lone exception), but Jauron’s simple execution schemes can lead to quick turnarounds, and DT Phil Taylor has looked better than I expected on the interior.  The Browns have a really good shot to be a winning team this year for only the third time since coming in as an expansion team in 1999.

But the Steelers will run away with the AFC North, if not the entire conference.  13 wins isn’t a misprint, it’s a baseline expectation for how much winning the Steelers should do against one of the weakest schedules in memory.  The Steelers have won more against harder schedules, and with a full year of Ben Roethlisberger and enough time to sort through considerable OL issues, the Steelers should be right back in the mix to win the AFC this season.

We’re going to start with the NFC South and NFC North predictions, to ensure that those picks are out by the time the Saints and Packers play this evening.  By Friday, the rest of the season preview will be written.

NFC South

Liveball Sports QDS Projections:

Saints 10.0 wins
Falcons 8.7 wins
Panthers 7.2 wins
Bucs 7.2 wins

The NFC South is one of the better divisions out there, but tonight’s game is going to mean a lot.  Consider: I have the Saints finishing far enough ahead of the Falcons where head to head and divisional tiebreakers should not be a major issue in the outcome of the division.  Should the Saints lose tonight, that would drop their season projection by about half a win, and now they’re close enough to the Falcons where a tiebreaker could mean the difference between division champs and the wild card.  Of course, if the Bears beat the Falcons on Sunday, their projection drops by over a third of a game, and then the Falcons might just be an 8-8 team.

Of course a loss for the Falcons has perhaps even larger ramifications.  They are the sixth playoff team in right now in the NFC according to the QDS probabilities (which are equation based, not simulation based, in terms of how the factor in strength of schedule).  The difference is going to be mostly reflected in the NFC East win probabilities, because the division expectation for the NFC West is so low this year.  The equation gives a solid win boost to all four NFC East teams, which is really a .500 division in terms of talent, I have them going a combined 34-30, which has a large affect on the NFC playoff projections versus a simulation which would likely pick just one playoff team from the NFC East and not project the NFC West to have four teams finish below .500 again.

If the Falcons lose to the Bears on opening day, the Bears hold the tiebreaker over the Falcons for the rest of the year, giving them a legitimate shot to make the playoffs at 8-8 by merely knocking off the Cowboys and the Falcons.  It also opens up a spot for the Bucs or even Panthers to make a run.

This is maybe a bit optimistic on the chances of the Panthers to be a factor in the NFC South this year, projecting them within 3 wins of the division title, that is, but the drivers behind this prediction is that the Panthers have strong recent history, averaging 7.33 wins per year while being quarterbacked by Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, and Jimmy Clausen.  The expectation that the Panthers can win an average of as many games as they have averaged over the past three years with a fourth place schedule even with Cam Newton at quarterback is not all that optimistic.  It would be a surprise if Carolina won 8+ games, just like it would be a surprise if Atlanta won 11 games.  The Panthers have a pretty good team, outside of the quarterback.

Tampa Bay’s projection is really just the play of quarterback Josh Freeman staving off a lot of regression factors from a team that won 4 games two years ago.  This is a young team that could classically go from 10 wins to 5 wins in the blink of ones eye, but because of Freeman as a stabilizing presence, the Bucs are likely to fall out of playoff contention early, but will be able to rally and win games late.  I have them at seven wins, but a margin of at least two on either side would be nice because the team is so young.

How can the Falcons and Bucs make the playoffs?  The Bucs have the most room to improve from last year on the defensive side of the ball while the Panthers are not expected to have an above average offense.  It would be a surprise if those units led the NFC in a bunch of categories, and would probably drive a playoff run for either team.

NFC North

LiveBall Sports QDS Projections:

Packers 11.3 wins
Vikings 7.8 wins
Bears 7.5 wins
Lions 6.2 wins

I would bet a lot of money on the Lions exceeding my win projection for them of 6.2 wins, because the primary factor dragging them down is their recent performance: 2.67 wins per year, lowest among any team of the last three years.  While the predictive value of this is useful for determining that this is probably not the year the Lions will Restore the Roar (3 years removed from an 0-16 season), it’s not fair to the Lions to assume that just because they’ve been the NFL’s worst team over the last three seasons, that the gains they made last season cannot be real.  I think they’ll get closer to 8 wins this year than 5.  And if Matt Stafford really is as good as he appears when healthy, they have no limits on offense (which, of course, makes 8-8 the target given the weaknesses in their secondary.

The Vikings in second place is a big surprise, but there’s no real difference in the projection between the Vikings and the Bears.  Recent history is pretty much identical, and even though the Bears have a first place schedule and the Vikings have a fourth place schedule, the Bears will draw the Seahawks because of it while the Vikings get the Cardinals.  The Bears and Vikings will be able to play it out on the field as relative equals this year.  And the Lions will be more in the mix than my projections suggest.

If all three teams are in a bitter fight for second place and a potential wild card, it is only because the Packers figure to be so far ahead of the rest of the, er, division.  The Pack is poised for a repeat run at the title, and should get better positioning via a division championship.  The expectation is because of a tough schedule early for the Bears and Vikings, the Lions and Packers will run stride by stride for eight or ten weeks, but then the roster weaknesses of the Lions will slowly get exposed while the Packers should finish strong, drawing the Lions twice at the end of the season, beginning with Thanksgiving day.

The race to keep an eye on in the division, barring an early season Aaron Rodgers injury (or late season, given the ease of the Lions early schedule) is the one for second place.  The Lions will have the upper hand early, but the gap will close late.  A playoff spot rests in the balance.  And my money, all else equal, is on the Chicago Bears for second place in the NFC North.

The Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers NFL rivalry is steeped in great tradition, dating back to the inaugural season of the Packers in 1921.  The history is the foundation of the rivalry, one of the more significant hatreds in all of sports.  This hatred is remarkable, because if you look at the history of either team, you realize that: since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Bears and Packers have been one of the six best teams (thus, making the playoffs) in the NFC…in just two of 40 seasons.

Think about that for a second.  If we assume perfect competitive balance in the NFC, the probability of both teams making the playoffs in any given season since the wild card was added is around 20%.  That’s just in one season.  In more than thirty years, it’s happened just twice.  This is more remarkable once you realize that the Bears and Packers have each enjoyed decade-long stretches of dominance.  It’s almost worked out perfectly that when one team is up, the other is down.

In no decade has that tendency been more pronounced than this past decade.  The Packers had a post-super bowl era swoon in 1999-2000 as they evolved as a team, but in 2001, they rebounded and went back to the top of the NFC Central, sweeping the Bears.  Of course, the Bears beat their final 14 non-Green Bay opponents that year and remain champions of the Central to this day.  That 2001 season was the last time the Bears and Packers were in the same playoff field.  The Bears dropped down to league-worst levels for the next three years, as Brett Favre and the Packers pressured the Eagles for the title of the most dominant team in the NFC then.

After four consecutive playoff appearances, the Packers suffered through an injury riddled 2005 season, and ultimately a short rebuild.  This managed to overlap with the dominance of the Bears defense, the new Monsters of the Midway, as a league-best unit that took the Bears’ hapless offense to the playoffs in consecutive years.  Then the Bears were knocked from their throne by an upstart Packers team led by the then 38 year old Brett Favre.  The Packers have been to the playoffs two of the last three years, while the Bears have come up empty, even though the year the Packers went 5-11 (2008), the Bears were a Week 17 win away from playing in the postseason.

All of these factors make this game between the 2-0 Packers and the 2-0 Bears significant.  Both teams are among the favorites to make the postseason in the NFC this year, and the winner of this game in Chicago takes a stranglehold on the NFC North division this year.  For two rivals who have never met in the NFC postseason, this could be the year where the NFC North’s wild card team is strong enough to knock off one of the weaker divisional winners and meet their rival in the divisional round in the first elimination between the teams in the modern era.

If the Bears want to avoid a potential trip to Lambeau Field in January, the first step is to defeat the Packers on their home turf tonight.  Many analysts aren’t giving the Bears much of a chance in this game, but I think they would be perceived differently as a team if they hadn’t lost defensive superstar Brian Urlacher for the whole season last year.  The Bears weren’t going to the playoffs with that offense a year ago, but they ended up at 6-10 because the defense had it’s worst season in almost a decade.  This year, that defense is back to a fierce level, and it’s a unit that is bound to give QB Aaron Rodgers some fits.

Of course, the Packers defense has been remarkably strong as well over the last year and a month, and with LT Chris Williams’ scratched for the Bears, QB Jay Cutler needs to be both decisive and accurate with his reads to knock of the Packers.  Cutler is reliably one or the other of those characteristics, but rarely is he both.  Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are ‘X’ factor backs for the Bears: they do more in the receiving game for the Bears than any other backs do for their teams.

The new-look Bears are the most exciting team Chicago has had in the last 25 years, because they throw the ball all over the yard and play stingy defense.  Those taking them lightly based on last year’s results would be wise to get over results from last year: they weren’t a good team last year and that’s not relevant.  The Packers were a great team last year, and that’s not really relevant here either.  The Bears are not the Bills.  They will outlast the Packers tonight in a showdown on the Chicago lake shore.

More picks and discussion from those who write a lot without being right a lot.

Ravens at Bengals Starting a season playing the Ravens and the Patriots would be a difficult draw for any team with high expectations, but for the Bengals, it’s more likely than not that those expectations were misplaced.  Experts like Chris Mortensen and Pat Kirwan picked the Bengals to go to the Super Bowl.  I don’t know what qualifies as a good super bowl pick (I mean, hardly anyone had the Colts and the Saints last year), but I’m thinking that if results in week one can make the pick look looney, it wasn’t a strong pick to begin with.  Ravens win this one.

Bears at Cowboys The Bears struggled to block Kyle VandenBosch and Cliff Avril last week, so this week’s match-up of Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware is going to cause the Bears a lot of problems.  The Cowboys offense hasn’t looked good this year, and this this week won’t be an exception to that rule, but unlike last week, the Cowboys can do just enough on offense to come out on top, narrowly.

Eagles at Lions In the past, this is the kind of game the Eagles always put away early.  But last year, they went to Oakland and lost to the Raiders.  That gives me pause: for the second week in a row, the Lions defense is going to get into the kitchen and harass the opponents’ quarterback without allowing a big day to the running back.  Still, with Shaun Hill starting for the Lions, this Eagles defense is the dominant unit on the field in this game, and should provide enough pressures and hits to win the game, however ugly the process may be.

Cardinals at Falcons This is a fairly fascinating Week 2 match-up.  The Cardinals defense looked great in Week 1 against Sam Bradford and the Rams, and the Falcons offense looked out of sync against a very competitive Steelers team.  If history repeats itself from a week ago, the Cards will win a defensive battle.  But there’s reason to believe that the Falcons can use the week in between to fix holes in their offensive gameplan, restore balance, and score a couple of touchdowns against the Cards.  That should be enough for the Falcons to comfortably defeat Derek Anderson’s Cardinals.

Chiefs at Browns Seneca Wallace is getting the nod for the Browns, and I liked what I saw from this team last week, independent of Jake Delhomme’s mistakes.  The Browns play good defense, and they run the ball really well.  I don’t know if their offensive coaching is good enough to get them over the hump in the AFC this year, but Matt Cassel is bound to struggle with the Browns’ coverages, and while Wallace’s play is one of many ‘X’ factors in this game, I’ve seen enough to take the Browns to win.

Bills at Packers Not the Bills.  Not this week, at least.  Packers.

Steelers at Titans Dennis Dixon got his first quarterback win last Sunday, but the OL for the Steelers did not perform very well.  That wasn’t a big issue against the Falcons front, but in come the Titans who just embarrassed the Raiders’ passing offense last week.  Rashard Mendenhall is going to have his chances to really stick it to the Titans in this one, but that defense is too fast to mount anything against.  Vince Young and Chris Johnson will be on display this week, putting the Steelers defense in a bind.  It’s Young who will carry the day for the Titans.

Buccaneers at Panthers The Panthers’ passing attack is a work in progress, but it’s unclear if the team is actually making any progress.  They don’t have a line that can block for longer-developing plays, and they don’t have receivers (plural) who can do anything with shorter developing plays.  That puts Matt Moore in a bind at quarterback, and Moore was dreadful last week against the Giants.  Obviously, the focus of the gameplan every week is going to be the running game: they can still do that.  But here come the upstart Buccaneers, who will be one of two NFC South teams to reach 2-0 this week.

Dolphins at Vikings This has to be one of the more fascinating games on the slate, as these two teams almost never play.  The Vikings need to find away to avoid dropping to 0-2 against a defense that shut down the Bills rushing attack last year, and can do the same to Adrian Peterson.  The Vikings need to find a way to force young Chad Henne into a mistake or two on the road, and in doing that, they can come out on top.  The Dolphins could deal a devastating blow to the Vikings by playing a great game, and can announce that they belong in the discussion for best team in the AFC East.

Rams at Raiders The Raiders couldn’t throw the ball at all on Tennessee last week.  This week, they’ll have to get Chris Long blocked, who is really blossoming into a top pass rusher in his third NFL season.  But unlike last week, they won’t have to worry about six pass rushing defensive lineman as good as Long.  That should give Jason Campbell more time to throw down the field, and give the Oakland Raiders their first win of the season.

Seahawks at Broncos It’s an old AFC West rivalry!  Well, there will be four of those this season for the Seahawks.  That’s just the way the schedule falls.  They looked great as a team last week, but they are eight years removed from playing in Denver every year, and that altitude climate is tough on all visitors.  Seattle benefited from a weak effort by the 49ers last week, and with their backs against the wall, they will get the Broncos very best.

Texans at Redskins It’s zone stretch-bootleg fun this week, and everyone’s running naked!  Arian Foster is going to go from the penthouse last week to an afterthought this week.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Matt Schaub threw 17 times last game, and just five times in the second half.  This is his team, and this is his game to win.  Foster was nice in week one, and he’s not going away for the season, but the Redskins don’t even have to make stopping him a priority this week.  If Schaub goes off, the Texans will win, but the Redskins know that and they’ll be ready.

Patriots at Jets It would be devastating for the Jets to play at home for the first two weeks of the season and come up winless, but if they can’t beat the Patriots, that’s the reality of the situation.  The fact that both teams, the Patriots and the Jets, have spent all offseason gameplanning to beat the other makes this matchup all the more intriguing.  The Jets have a small advantage because the Patriots have also spent time studying the Dolphins to protect their title, where as the Jets have been all about catching the Patriots.  But the Patriots have the biggest, most important advantage of all: being the better team.

Jaguars at Chargers Last week, I picked the Chiefs over the Chargers saying that the Chargers would fall in their first three games.  That’s all the reasoning you need to understand the selection here: the Jaguars scoring more points than their opponent, getting to 2-0.

Giants at Colts I agree with the angry masses: it’s time to be concerned about the Colts.  Forget the dreaded “Super Bowl Hangover”.  Here’s the issue: the Colts don’t have an offensive line to protect Peyton Manning or give him a running game, and under no circumstances can the Colts stop an opponent’s rushing attack.  The Colts can continue to be a winning machine if they make teams throw to catch them, but the last time their defense couldn’t stop the run (2006), they had a great offensive line and an unstoppable offensive juggernaut.  Something is going to have to give.  In this game, that “something” will be the Giants passing defense.  The Colts get to a very unimpressive 1-1.

Saints at 49ers This Niners team could be in trouble, considering just how poorly they played in a divisional road game against the Seattle Seahawks.  Here come the World Champs to San Francisco, a team that can really pressure a defense that is weak versus the pass by tossing it around on them.  Unless the Niners draw up the best gameplan of their season, their options for holding off the Saints in a close game are limited to baseless hope and unexpected development in Alex Smith as a passer.  They best hope a deity is listening.

Picks and discussion from those who write a lot without being right a lot.

Vikings at Saints Pick for this Thursday nighter was the Saints, made via Twitter.

Browns at Bucs Both of these teams figure to be improved over last year, and not by a small amount either.  Josh Freeman versus the young, loaded secondary of the Browns in a can’t miss match-up in a game that is otherwise forgettable.  The player I’d love to have on my fantasy team more than any other in this game is Jerome Harrison: he’s the guy who I like to go for multiple TD’s in this one.  Jake Delhomme will play equal parts efficient and boring.  Freeman will throw a TD and an Interception.  The Browns will start 1-0.

Dolphins at Bills Should be a good one.  I don’t say that sarcastically, and no, I don’t plan on watching.  It should be a legitimately good game between two teams who can’t afford to fall to 0-1 in the AFC East division.  The Bills need this game worse, and have a good track record at home in September.  You could make the argument that Trent Edwards can be trusted more than Chad Henne at this point in their respective careers.  Both teams are loaded with running backs.  I like the Bills, but I also know that the Dolphins are going to make more downfield plays.  Their receivers against the Bills secondary will dictate who comes out on top.  That team, I believe, is the Dolphins.

Bengals at Patriots This is going to be an air show.  The Bengals have a great cornerback tandem, but they don’t have a great pass defense unit.  Neither team can really get after the other team’s passer.  The Pats still do the passing thing better than any other team.  For about two and a half quarters, the Bengals passing game is going to be able to keep up with the Pats’, and the game will be within a touchdown one way or the other.  The final margin is going to be between 13-17 points, in favor of the Patriots.

Colts at Texans The Texans may want this game worse, and I don’t doubt they do, but there’s little evidence to suggest that desperation makes teams perform better.  The Colts want to really punch the Texans in the mouth, and they’ve had their number since, well, since the Texans have existed.  Peyton Manning is still the leagues best quarterback.  If the Texans rush for 5.5 YPC or better in this game, they will have a chance, but if they don’t, the most inevitable outcome of the day is that the Colts will start 1-0.  Again.

Broncos at Jaguars Tim Tebow is a nice headline in this game.  He’s going home to play in the NFL before he plays anywhere else.  He’ll make some impact, but against the swiss cheese Jags defense, Eddie Royal and Kyle Orton are going to have themselves quite the day.  The Broncos win by a comfortable two TD margin.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh Probably the hardest game to pick today.  To pick the Steelers would mean that you have to expect their defense to bounce back to roughly 2008 levels, because they are facing one of the premier NFC teams and are without their starting quarterback, and last year’s starting Right Tackle and Center.  Still, that’s the prediction here, the Steelers start off 1-0 in a game that comes down to the wire.

Oakland at Tennessee Take the under on points scored in this game, and take the Raiders to cover because this game is going to be field goals everywhere.  Interesting dynamic here: Jason Campbell is a better quarterback in the second half of games than the first half.  Vince Young is better in the last three minutes than the first 57.  Still, it’s likely the TD or two that will be scored in the first half of this game that will determine who wins this game: you want to be the team that gets that TD.  Raiders to cover, Titans to win.

Panthers at Giants Sometimes a team beats down another team so badly on the road when they played last year, Week 16, that even though I think the Giants will be much better as a team this year, I see no way they can possibly close the match-up gap with the Panthers.  This team is still going to miss Antonio Pierce (retired) in the middle.  Not forever, but at least in this one.

Lions at Bears Sure, it’s tempting to pick an improved Lions team over a Bears team that went 0-4 in the preseason and looked dismal.  But it’s also likely the wrong pick.  The Bears are more talented nearly everywhere on the field, and the Lions haven’t beaten them (or anyone, really) since 2007.

Cardinals at Rams I don’t want to simplify this game to the Rams having the better quarterback (they do), because the Cardinals defense being a lot better matters just as much if not more, but for this one game, at home in the Edward Jones Dome, I like the Rams to handle that Cardinals pass rush, and beat Derek Anderson and the Cardinals.

Packers at Eagles How fantastic is this match-up?  So many variables in this game.  Can Kevin Kolb play up to Donovan McNabb’s level?  Can the Packers protect Aaron Rodgers to free him up to make pinpoint passes downfield?  Two great west coast offense gurus as well in Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy.  For a pick, give me the Eagles at home, but even the act of picking this game, I think, takes away from the intrigue.

49ers at Seahawks Seattle could surprise if they can block the 49ers pass rush, but their offensive line is already hurt, which limits Justin Forsett’s impact on the game.  I honesty don’t know if Alex Smith can outplay Matt Hasselbeck, but I’m thinking they’re won’t be much successful passing in this game.  Call it a hunch.  Give me the 49ers to win late against the Hawks.

Cowboys at Redskins Picked this one earlier in the week.  A Clinton Portis rushing TD is the only time either team finds paydirt.  An intentional safety taken by Mike Shanahan brings the final score to 13-8, in the Redskins favor.  Neither quarterback gets much going.

Ravens at Jets It’s hard not to like the Jets at home, but Mark Sanchez is going to help every player on Baltimore’s defense play with the anticipation of Ed Reed, who is out for the first six games.  He will be intercepted just once, but complete 50 percent of his passes in a close Jets loss.  The Ravens will begin one and oh.

Chargers at Chiefs I have the Chargers beginning not just with a single loss, but with three of them before they get a win.  The Chargers will be okay without Vincent Jackson, but in this game, with two shut down corners for the Chiefs, the Chargers could really miss the elite receiver.  And their LT, Marcus McNeill, who could get paid because of what Tamba Hali does in this game for the Chiefs.

Despite my best efforts, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are still the two biggest players in this game.  There are other important players: Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Will Smith, Jonathon Vilma, Darren Sharper, Jabari Greer, Gary Brackett, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, Charlie Johnson, Jeff Saturday, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Mike Hart–all of who could collectively decide the game, and we probably wouldn’t even know it.

Still, Manning and Brees are king, and are the storyline with regards to this game.  We will probably know at the end of the day that one guy outplayed the other, and if there’s any justice in the world, that team will win the game.

It would not be right to suggest that these two teams are here exclusively because of their quarterbacks.  They are not.  They both have stronger defenses than they have ever had in the past, highly efficient (and important) kicking games, and the Saints can run the ball on seemingly whoever they want to.  But both the Saints and the Colts have one last game to win–regardless of how and why they are here–and both will rely very heavily on their superstar quarterbacks to get it done.

On top of the responsibility each holds for the performance of their team, this game means so much to each in the historical sense.  I’m sure Peyton Manning doesn’t give two darns about whether he will be considered the greatest quarterback ever to play the game, or merely one of the greatest, but if we’re going to talk about his team, the Indianapolis Colts, in the same breath as the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers this decade, the Colts have to win this game.  Furthermore, while I’m sure Manning wouldn’t give the time of day to anyone who asked him about a third title at this point, Peyton is at an age where the only way he is going to be able to win that many titles is to win this game.  If he has two at age 33, then yeah, three before he retires is quite reasonable.  Getting two titles after age 34 would be practically impossible, and while the smart money is on Peyton winning this year, and then again in 2010 (since the Colts will open next with basically the exact same roster as this year but with a healthy team), the idea that he might not be a multiple time SB champ seems preposterous now, but becomes very realistic if he can’t win this game.

On the other hand, think of what this game feels like from Drew Brees’ perspective.  He doesn’t play for a juggernaut like the Colts.  He plays for the historically irrelevant New Orleans Saints.  While Peyton can sit there and wonder what could have been if he loses this game…what better chance is Brees ever going to have to win a title?  The Colts could be back in this game next year regardless of outcome.  The Saints almost certainly will not be.  Brees is a good enough player as to where he could find himself back in another super bowl as a role player–or perhaps a backup–six or seven years down the road.  If Brees can just win a football game tomorrow, he’s a champion, and a probable hall of famer.  If he fails to win tomorrow, he’s probably not going to retire with a ring, and then he’ll have some trouble getting enough votes to get into Canton–the pull for him will be there regardless.

Joe Montana won zero rings after the age of 33.  Terry Bradshaw didn’t win any after 31.  Tom Brady last won at age 27.  He might win again next year at age 33, but father time is clearly shrinking the window the Pats have, and if he is to win, he’ll have to beat Manning along the way.  Aikman had all the rings he would ever have by 29.

John Elways end-of-career run stands as the lone example of a legend getting his at the end of a long career.  Elway had some great passing seasons near the end, but mostly, it appears the AFC got just weak enough to give him an opening.  And it wasn’t much of an opening, since the Packers were heavily favored in SB32.  But if you can get it down to just one game, anything can happen.  And that’s the attitude that Brees and the Saints need to win.  You’ve had a spectacular season where you’ve exceeded all expectations, even your own.  The team who you will line up against is not the Cardinals or the Vikings or the Panthers, they’re actually an accomplished team.  But they’re not some historic team who can’t be beaten.  The Saints must understand that there is very limited shame in losing, but the biggest factor here is the opportunity.

No NFC team has repeated as conference champions since 1997.  No NFC South team has ever won the division in consecutive years.  The Saints aren’t really even built to sustain a dynasty.  The offense, yes.  Who knows about the defense?  They could be dead last in the league next year.  Or they could be a little bit better.

But the Saints have the opportunity to be the 2002 Bucs in history, or they can go the way of the 2003 Panthers.  Both options are sub-optimal than to simply being where the Indianapolis Colts are.  They’re not even on the same playing field as the Saints.  And that’s the mindset that the Colts need to take to this game.  That team over there: desperate.  We are the best team in the match-up.  That’s the kind of thinking that needs to occur for the favorites.  And then it needs to transfer to the field.

If the Colts leave the Saints in the game, were going to have a hell of a super bowl to watch.  And the Colts might pull it out anyway at the end, but it’s not like the Saints are worried about that.  If the Colts ever let Drew Brees have one drive to win the super bowl, they’ve played their cards wrong.  Because if the Saints get that sort of advantage: their best unit, their best players against the Colts trying to hang on to a slim lead, that’s the way an upset will happen.

It’s such a realistic possibility that there really is no “upset” in this game.  The Colts should win.  But if the Saints are in the game, everyone watching, Colts fans included, will know ahead of time that this game can go either way.  That’s a league-wide phenomenon.  The best computers, the vegas spreads, the former players, no one can sustain a picking rate higher than 2/3s.  That doesn’t mean that there are no such thing as favorites in football, but it does mean that, when you have two teams and only one title, the game should be good.

And unless the Colts just have the winning gameplan right from the first snap, it’s going to be good one.  And it’s going to come down to Brees, the clock, a four point deficit, Manning on the sidelines, super bowl immortality in his grasp–

…and a Kelvin Hayden interception.  Colts 39, Saints 35.

Best game: Eagles and Cowboys.  Worst game: Whatever Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are calling.  Lets get right to the picks.

NY Jets at Cincinnati

After a Week 15 loss to the Falcons, the Jets needed a minor miracle to make the postseason.  After *finding a way* to beat the 14-0 Colts the next week , they not only were likely to make postseason, but needed only to win their final game to get the 5th seed.  The Jets nearly lost everything by virtue of being swept by Miami: any scenario in which Miami had even tied the Jets in record would have eliminated New York from postseason contention.

The Bengals have been in for awhile now.  The story of this season was that, in perhaps the NFL’s toughest division, the Bengals beat everyone to go 6-0.  Of course, they benefitted from playing every division opponent on their schedule prior to December, at which point, they have gone back to playing Bengals football.

One of the reasons that this match-up is interesting is that both teams approach the game uniquely, but largely the same.  Both teams use a lot of 6 OL sets, and have strong offensive lines.  Cincinnati’s Kyle Cook and New York’s Nick Mangold might be the two best centers in the game today.  The Bengals are finding out about Lavarneus Coles what the Jets knew last season.  It’s hard to quantify what they are missing with T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Seattle, but I’d imagine it’s quite a bit.  The Bengals passing game is hardly the terror it once was, in fact, it’s probably one of the ten weakest passing games in the league.

It’s got nothing on the Jets non-existant passing game, though.  The Jets are the kind of team that if they throw 20 times in a game, they’re in trouble.

For Cincinnati, they really couldn’t ask for a better match-up to win their first playoff game since 1990.  The Jets are the NFL’s best defense, but they are a team that can be beaten through methodical football focused on a rushing attack.  It’s easy to predict how this game will be won, since both teams play the same game, but it’s hard to predict who will win it.  I’m flipping my pick from most of this week and taking the Bengals.  I think the Jets are the better team, but the Bengals got a big advantage by getting to see all of Rex Ryan’s exotic blitzes last week.  At home, I think they’ll play well enough to make Mark Sanchez a factor, in which case, it may not be all that close.

Philadelphia at Dallas

If history was to dictate this game, the Cowboys don’t have a fighting chance.  Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid have never failed to win at least one postseason game in any year they have made it to the playoffs.  Neither Wade Phillips nor Tony Romo have ever won a playoff game.  Cowboys…drought…1996…etc.

More recent history suggests the Cowboys do have a chance, because they swept the Eagles to win the division this year.  Perhaps the most fascinating thing about this game is the fact that both of these teams are talented enough to go all the way and win the super bowl THIS season, but obviously, the loser of this game will be done before they can get started.  The Eagles are in a bit of a bind, because even if they can draw up a plan to defeat the Cowboys, they just have the Saints next week in the Superdome, a bad match-up for the pass-happy Eagles.  First things first though, they need to find a way to beat Dallas.

The key to the whole game is the Dallas defense.  If it shows up at it’s strongest, like it has played most of the second half of the season, the Cowboys are a very legit threat to beat the Eagles and go all the way to New Orleans for a rematch.  The problem comes if they fail to get pressure on McNabb in the first half of the game, and he starts to hit those long plays downfield, the Cowboys simply won’t be able to sustain against the Philadelphia defense.  This should be a better game than either of the two regular season match-ups, but I’d be foolish to put any faith in the Cowboys here.  The Eagles will win.

Baltimore at New England

I don’t think Wes Welker’s injury is going to limit the Pats very much.  For one thing, he had become a limiting factor of sorts on the Pats offense: so good at what he does that the team loses balance and just becomes a series of Welker option routes.  Even when Brady successfully got the ball to Moss this year, it seemed forced.  In fact, some of Brady’s best throws to Moss were not even dictated by the coverage at all.  With Welker out, and Julian Edelman playing his role in the offense, it would be easy to think of the Patriots as a one dimensional team, but this gives them an opportunity to re-commit the running game and let Brady get back to doing what he does well.

I think if the Pats can overcome the Ravens in this one, they would have to be considered one of the most dangerous teams in the field.  The problem, particularly with the Welker injury, is that the Ravens are a very underrated football team that has a great chance to strike while the Patriots are trying to identify a go-to play or two that they can win with in the playoffs.  When the Patriots were winning all their titles back at the beginning of this decade, they were doing so with barely functional receivers, sort of like the group that the Ravens have now.  Derrick Mason is your Troy Brown equivalent.  Mark Clayton is David Givens.  Kelly Washington is, Deion Branch?  Anyway, the Ravens have a passing game again now that Todd Heap has resurfaced as a receiver after 4 years of blocking hibernation.  Having two NFL quality offensive tackles will do that for you.

Ray Rice is the reason that the Patriots will not overcome the Ravens, dangerous as they are can be.  The explosive second year back is a primetime performer.  Though this game will be played in the middle of the day, Rice and backfield mate Willis McGahee are playing as well as any tandem of backs in the NFL right now, and not just on running plays.  The duo is great on passing plays as well.  The Patriots defense figures to be helpless to slow down these two plus Heap, and while I can’t tell you what to expect from the Pats offense, I’m probably more confident that the Ravens will win this one than with any other pick this week.

Green Bay at Arizona

For the year, Green Bay has long been the best of these two teams, and there’s really no doubt that they should have a slight edge going into this match-up.  But the Cardinals have been here before.  And while there’s no Jake Delhomme in the second round to help propel this team towards the super bowl, Green Bay is an opponent that definately favors the Cardinals.

For one thing, Arizona is an even better coached team than they were a year ago.  Ken Whisenhunt is a constant, one of the best coaches in the NFL, but both of his coordinators are better preparers than Clancy Pendergast and Todd Haley were a year ago.  Adrian Wilson is a superstar once again in this defense.  Darnell Dockett is probably the best, or second best, 5-technique in the NFL now that Richard Seymour plays in a 4-3 front.  And this season could be the final opportunity for Kurt Warner to present to the world his case for being a hall-of-famer.

The Packers are excellent at designing pressures to get hits on Warner, but this is a Cardinals team that can choose to punish them with the run, or beat them with the passing game.  It looks like Anquan Boldin will miss this one, but Steve Breaston is more of a mismatch for the Packers to deal with anyway.

I expect Aaron Rodgers to be marginalized in this game by a strong Arizona pass rush, and soft, yet complex zone coverage schemes that take away the Packers’ ability to use their speed to strike quickly.  Ryan Grant has a good chance to be successful on the ground, but I don’t believe Green Bay will stick with the run long enough for it to matter.  For the Packers to win, they’ll have to find a way to generate points with their defense.  It can happen, but until it does, I like the Cardinals.

Buffalo at Atlanta There’s plenty of issues with the Falcons right now,  but the Bills cannot exploit their issues, and the advantage at home is great enough for me to think that they can win comfortably.

Kansas City at Cincinnati Cincinnati has lost two games in a row, and really needs to clinch the division this week before it begins to slip away.  In comes Kansas City, to ensure that the Bengals will get it done.

Oakland at Cleveland James Harrison had his day in the sun last week, but now Derek Anderson is back in for the Browns, and Charlie Frye can finally get some measure of revenge.  The Raiders must be quicker on defense than the Browns offensive line to win, and should be.

Seattle at Green Bay The Packers find themselves in the same boat as the Bengals.  You want to make the playoffs?  Get it done against an inferior opponent tonight, and most likely, things will take care of themselves.  The Packers are one of the strongest teams in the NFC, and they’ll clinch this week with some help.

Houston at Miami All week, I’ve figured that Miami would win this one with their backs against the wall, including in my projections for the AFC playoff race.  One problem.  The Texans will not go quietly.  I think there is a high probability that Houston can be outcoached, but they are the much better team, and the much better team usually wins.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Ben Roethlisberger did not play in the first meeting between the two teams, which went to overtime.  Joe Flacco did struggle, but outplayed Dennis Dixon at got the win.  Pittsburgh plays in their home finale today, and they need a win to stay relevant.  The Steelers will live for one more week.

Carolina at New York Giants More than the Redskins quitting on the season, the Giants played their most complete game.  They won’t have to be quite as good this week to be just as victorious.

Jacksonville at New England So many players on the out and out for New England this week that it’s a team that could be looking at the fourth seed in the conference.  For all of their problems this year, the Patriots would move to 8-0 with a home win.  Jacksonville absolutely has to have this one, but I predict the New England defense comes up bigger, later to seal it.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans This has a chance to be a good one…into the second quarter.  Saints.

St. Louis at Arizona The Cardinals have really struggled the last two weeks, but at the end of the day, one team has Kurt Warner, and the other has Keith Null.  Keith Null…is no Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Cards.

Detroit at San Francisco The Drew Stanton era starts this week for the Lions.  A fast 49ers defense ensures that this era ends next week.

Denver at Philadelphia After becoming the only team in NFL history to give up a game clinching TD to JaMarcus Russell, the Broncos need an excellent game plan to recover and beat the hottest team in the NFC, Philadelphia.  They’ll get a barn burner, but ultimately, Kyle Orton just can’t throw the ball like he needs to in order to win in December.

New York Jets at Indianapolis The Jets aren’t going to be able to generate points on the road, even if the Colts pull their starters in the first quarter.  If Peyton Manning and co. can put just 14 points on the board, this will be a comfortable win for the Colts that the starters won’t have to finish.

Dallas at Washington The Cowboys have shown the ability to finish games, which is the critical skill in division games such as this one.  The Redskins sit at 0-5 in the division this year, so the Cowboys will get everything they have.  It will be enough to lead in the third quarter, but the Redskins defense is like clockwork: if they hold a six point lead with 5 minutes to go, they know it’s time to give it up.

Minnesota at Chicago Things are about to get very, very bad in Minnesota, because the Chicago Bears are going to win their home finale, and Minnesota is about to fall out of having the bye week in the NFC.  It’s going to be a long practice week for the men in purple.

NFL

New England at Buffalo Pick:  Patriots.  Player:  Laurence Maroney

Cleveland at Kansas City Pick:  Browns.  Player:  Brady Quinn

Atlanta at New York Jets Pick:  Falcons.  Player:  Tony Gonzalez

Houston at St. Louis Pick:  Texans.  Player:  Matt Schaub

Miami at Tennessee Pick:  Titans.  Player:  Kyle Vanden Bosch

Arizona at Detroit Pick: Cardinals.  Player:  Steve Breaston

Oakland at Denver Pick: Broncos.   Player:  Kyle Orton

Cincinnati at San Diego Pick:  Chargers.  Player:  Philip Rivers

Chicago at Baltimore Pick:  Ravens.  Player: Jarrett Johnson

Tampa Bay at Seattle Pick:  Seattle.  Player: John Carlson

San Francisco at Philadelphia Pick: 49ers.  Player: Frank Gore

Green Bay at Pittsburgh Pick: Packers.  Player:  Aaron Rodgers

Minnesota at Carolina Pick: Vikings.  Player:  Kevin Williams

NY Giants at Washington Pick: Redskins.  Player:  Jason Campbell