LiveBall Sports

The biggest name lineman to rip out his roots and relocate to another city was Atlanta’s Harvey Dahl, a loss the Atlanta Falcons seemed to be prepared for.

The salary cap situation that the Falcons were in more or less was going to prevent them from making competitive offers to all three of their free agent offensive lineman.  The makeup of their roster would allow them to replace a player like Dahl internally.  But a player like Tyson Clabo, had he walked to become Buffalo’s right tackle, the Falcons would have been forced to go outside the organization to replace him.  So the Falcons fought to match the best offer for Clabo, even though he likely exceeded their budget for his position.  That Clabo contract caused them to put the negations for LG Justin Blalock on the back burner, and they got priced out of the market for Dahl.  Former Alabama OT Mike Johnson will be first in line to play right guard for the Falcons.

The St. Louis Rams won the Harvey Dahl sweepstakes, giving them a force on the interior of their line for power run blocking.  Dahl makes some sense for the Rams because their system under Josh McDaniels will be based on getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly, and the premium in a system like that is to have guards who can blow open the middle of the defensive line for interior runs.  He makes more sense for them than the man he is replacing, Jacob Bell.  But the Rams by and large do not employ people who are like minded to Dahl on their line, and by the time they retool the entire line into power, man-blocking types, Dahl may be expected to be in decline.  It’s a nice signing for the short term, but its’ a lot of money for a thirty year old guard.

The real winners here are the players, Dahl and Clabo.  The market was not kind to 30 year old players.  Nnamdi Asomugha got relatively devalued by his birthdate. Younger players such as Marshal Yanda and Davin Joseph signed deals that broke the bank for interior linemen.  Doug Free drew interest and got big money from the Cowboys.  Teams paid tons of money to re-up their homegrown linemen, within or even slightly in excess of their positional budgets.

Clabo and Dahl were valued for the success they enjoyed on the field, even at age thirty.  Furthermore, there is ample evidence to believe that the St. Louis Rams, specifically, did not have this aversion to 30 year old players seen on the rest of the market.  They gave a mammoth contract to 31 year old Quentin Mikell at safety.  The philosophy may have simply been to make a big signing on offense and a big signing on defense, future be damned.  But here, the Falcons managed to get a little younger on offense, and managed to retain the cornerstone of their offensive line, and eventually moved to 27 year old Justin Blalock, and his deal got done without much commotion.

Marshal Yanda cost a significant chunk of Baltimore’s cap space, but he was very much in demand by other teams, including the Washington Redskins, and he just didn’t want to leave.  Doug Free was going to be headed to the best offer, and Dallas was unwilling to let him get away, even though it cost them any shot at the FA market.  Davin Joseph wanted to stay with Tampa Bay and Tampa needed to pay someone on their roster, so he did really well to stay.  Dahl ended up being the only guy who needed to leave to obtain the most money or best situation.  And again, there’s hidden benefit for Atlanta: they get younger, while staying predominately home grown.

Breaking up the “bash brothers” on the right side of the Atlanta line is going to hurt the team in the short term: Atlanta’s projection this year from LiveBall Sports will not exceed that of any team in their division except Carolina.  But they also added Ray Edwards at LDE and re-upped Blalock unexpectedly.  Overall, it would be difficult for Falcon fans to be disappointed with the team’s work in free agency.  The Falcons will be in the mix again in 2011 before — according to our projections — they peak as an organization under GM Thomas Dimitroff in 2012.  The best thing you can say about Harvey Dahl’s decision is that, if everything goes right for his Rams, he may not have to wait that long to represent his conference in the Super Bowl.

If only the Panthers had taken AJ Green with the first overall pick, they might be in the mix for the NFC South division title.

The Panthers entered 2011 with a ton of cap space due to a complete lack of salary obligation, and a number of key unrestricted free agents.  GM Marty Hurney flew around the country in a last second attempt to keep the core of his team together.  Hurney, by his own standards, was wildly successful.  The only players the Panthers ended up losing this weekend were quarterback Matt Moore and cornerback Richard Marshall.  They resigned DE Charles Johnson, LB Thomas Davis, LB James Anderson, RB DeAngelo Williams, and extended LB Jon Beason, and as icing on the cake, they acquired Bears TE Greg Olsen in a trade.  Finally, the Panthers brought in TE Ben Hartsock (Jets), K Olindo Mare (Seahawks), and DT Ron Edwards (Chiefs).

All in all, the Panthers spent more than $80 million of Jerry Richardson’s money this week alone.  For many baseball teams, that’s an annual payroll.  For the Panthers, it bought the above.  The Panthers are locked into their current team, financially.  It’s not a particularly old roster, but the trouble is that because most of the team’s players are in their primes, the 2-14 result from last year should have sent shockwaves through the organization.  Apparently, it did not.  The Panthers big problems last year were on the offensive side of the ball, though the defense was certainly filled with it’s share of underachievers.  Those underachievers are back in 2011, and the Panthers might win their gamble that their best shot at a top third defense is to re-sign everyone with an expiring contract.  The Panthers have a suspect secondary, but even the declining Chris Gamble can still handle his side of the field.

The offense was a disaster in 2010, and to go back to the top of the article, it would have made the most sense for the Panthers to use the first overall pick on A.J. Green if they weren’t interested in rebuilding.  It appears that the new plan is to rebuild the passing game from the ground up, while leaning heavily on the running game led by DeAngelo Williams into his twilight years, and by Jonathon Stewart behind an improving OL.  Green would have given the Panthers an NFL replica offense of Jimmy Clausen’s Notre Dame team.  David Gettis looks like a steal in the 6th round, but Clausen’s best ball: the single coverage deep fade down the sideline, is a ball that Gettis consistently was outjumped on, and obviously, Steve Smith is better used on quick passes and the deep dig route than any jump ball.  Green would have changed the dynamic of the Panthers offense, and made this course of action tolerable.

Instead, Clausen becomes a fringe NFL player and likely career backup, and the Panthers will go as Newton goes.  That makes their free agency strategy of keeping the good ‘ol boys together a bit bizarre since even assuming a strong rushing attack (hardly a guarantee), the Panthers have no plans to trade Steve Smith and don’t really have the infrastructure in place to fast track Newton’s development.  By the time Carolina’s quarterback situation is solved, if it is ever solved, Smith will be in the twilight of his career as will Williams, and Stewart will be playing elsewhere thanks to free agency, and the Panthers offense may very well be Newton, TE Greg Olsen, and whatever Gettis and Brandon Lafell develop into plus future draft choices.  The defense figures to be sound throughout this process, but never good enough to define the Panthers under new head coach Ron Rivera.  They’ll be defined by Newton, and if Newton’s early career is defined by this open season on cash outflows, it could be far too long before the Panthers are ready to contend.

The quarterback carousel is in full swing.  And this trio of teams wasted no time in getting in on it.  A different post will be used to address the Kevin Kolb trade.

The first domino fell when Tarvaris Jackson agreed to terms with Seattle very shortly after the negotiating period opened on Tuesday.  Jackson followed the path first paved by offensive coordinator and Brett Favre BFF Darrell Bevell, moving from Minnesota to Seattle in the offseason.  For the Seahawks, this should have been really obvious after they didn’t select any quarterbacks in the draft.  The Hasselbeck era in Seattle gets to end amicably, and with no obvious solution to their quarterback situation, the quick add of Jackson gives them a player with a little bit of upside and starting experience on the salary of a backup who can play right away.  It’s everything that Seattle screwed up in the Charlie Whitehurst deal when they traded a third round pick for a player with no experience at the quarterback position, causing Hasselbeck to win a job that the Seahawks pretty clearly did not intend for him to win.

When you take a look at a situation like the Cincinnati Bengals have at their quarterback position (under the assumption that Carson Palmer is, in fact, a retired player), you can see what could have happened to the Seahawks if they weren’t judicious at this position.  The Bengals employ Bruce Gradkowski, Jordan Palmer, and Andy Dalton.  The Bengals have all year to try to develop Dalton, but it is quite clear, to me at least, that the Bengals best plan at the quarterback position for the future is for Palmer to have a change of heart.  Gradkowski isn’t anywhere near the player Jackson has been over his career, Jordan Palmer has failed to hold a job whenever there has been competition, and Dalton was pushed up into the second round by a ton of demand at the quarterback position.   The Seahawks were able to stay on pace in their rebuilding project while passing on mid-tier draft-eligible quarterbacks, and for their trouble, they might have picked up the highest upside player on either team (Jackson, if not Dalton), and won’t have to sit through the many moods of Bruce Gradkowski in the meantime.

Seattle opens itself up for criticism if and when the offense struggles behind Jackson, but then again, the offense struggled behind Hasselbeck last year, and they won the NFC West.  It would not be too strange an outcome to have predicted if they do so again.

Hasselbeck moves on and signs with the Tennessee Titans, which is not nearly as sound as a football move.  Tennessee was also pretty barren at the quarterback position after drafting Jake Locker with the 8th overall pick.  Hasselbeck comes in and is instantly the best quarterback on the Titan roster.  That also would have been true of most of the free agent market.  Tennessee just happened to settle on the player who is 35 years old.

Tennessee must have thought the world of him because they are still going to pay him like a top passer over the next three years at 7 million per year.  Hasselbeck was last a top passer in 2007.  Even if you believe he can sustain the gains he made in 2010 under Jeremy Bates (who was fired by the Seahawks, for reasons unknown to outsiders), Hasselbeck is still at the very, very end of his useful life, to the point where even getting 16 mildly effective games out of him is farfetched.  Hasselbeck already has an existing relationship with Locker from their days as residents of the state of Washington, but that seems like a silly thing to tack a couple extra million on there for.

My problem here is with the Tennessee Titans, not with Matt Hasselbeck, who is by all reports, a classy guy and the kind of face of an organization the Titans should want.  But the longer he remains the top QB on their roster, the more evident it will become that drafting Jake Locker was a mistake.  If Locker was going to blow us away this year, a Hasselbeck signing wouldn’t make any sense.  The Titans plan of succession is very obvious here, I’m just not sure it has any chance of working.

Tennessee’s Thursday release of former franchise quarterback and 2006 offensive rookie of the year Vince Young was a bad situation for everyone involved, including Young.  He landed a couple hours later on his feet in Philadelphia, filling the void created by the Kevin Kolb trade.  This is an obvious win for the Eagles, since Kolb and Young are pretty identical in their value to a team as backup quarterbacks.  Kolb got a monster deal from Arizona because of his projection as a starter, but for Philadelphia, there’s hardly any on-field loss.  Young is the biggest winner though: the Eagles organization is a value creating machine for quarterbacks.  He goes anywhere else, and he’s sink or swim for the rest of his career.  By going to the Eagles, he’s going to be in high demand at this point next year.  Only problem for the Eagles is that Young is on a one year deal, and if they’re going to get any value for him after the season, they can only do so by using the franchise tag on him, which will limit the return in any trade.

Then again, I’m not even convinced that Young will make it to the season there.  One unexpected injury to a QB in the preseason, and Young is going to be in demand yet again.  The fact that the Eagles hold his rights just gives the rest of the league the heads up that when you need a quarterback, you’re probably going to have to go through the Eagles to get it.

The shocking thing to me about the Nnamdi Asomugha surprise signing with the Philadelphia Eagles is how many different parties lost in this whole ordeal.

Start with Nnamdi Asomugha.  Asomugha is a west coast guy who, according to a report by Peter King, had his heart set on leaving Oakland to play on the east coast.  So, sure, Asomugha got what he wanted in Philadelphia, and I’m sure he’ll be quite satisfied playing for a class A organization into his early to mid thirties.

But this is not a good contract for Asomugha.  You can rest assured knowing the way the Eagles do business that if and when Asomugha is released by the Eagles, it will be at the nadir of his value as a player.  It’s more than possible that he’s good enough to play all five years of his contract with the Eagles and earn all $60 million in the contract, but he no longer holds that option to hit the market at the peak of his value like he did in Oakland.  Furthermore, it’s almost incomprable how much money Asomugha ended up leaving on the table to end up with the Eagles.

The best offers made by the Texans, Cowboys, 49ers, and Jets almost certainly exceeded this offer by the Eagles: 12 mil/year and 40% of the contract guaranteed.  The reason the Eagles were a surprise suitor is because those teams had better offers on the table, and eventually had to pull them, likely because of mismanagement by Asomugha’s agent.  By the time Philadelphia came in at the end, Asomugha was just taking the best available offer in a relatively weak market.  Conceivably, he could have used interest from all 30 teams to create a super market for himself.  But when it really just broke down into a five team race, Asomugha’s east coast demands made the New York Jets the only option; and then his contractual demands took them out of the picture.

The Jets are now in some kind of a bad scenario.  Asomugha would have been the icing on the cake in terms of a perfect week of free agents.  They had set their cap situation up to get him.  But the people on Asomugha’s end never pulled the trigger.  And because of that, the Jets will almost certainly enter 2011 older and with less firepower than they had in 2010.  They have some salary cap space necessary to go out and add a corner, but they were well set up to add Asomugha and trend towards the top of the NFL in defense next year.  Now, the Jets lost a couple of pieces: CB Drew Coleman, and probably WR Braylon Edwards among them.

ESPN’s John Clayton expects them to resign Antonio Cromartie, meaning their defense will look like it did last year, just older.  And that offense is in some sort of trouble, as its stable has been cut at the WR position, the teams right tackle, Damien Woody, announced his retirement, and Mark Sanchez has yet to show meaningful, measurable improvement in his NFL career to date.  We know the anvil falls on Sanchez if the Jets struggle this season, but it’s possible that this could have been avoided if the Jets never had gone after Asomugha…or had gotten him.  This is a big loss for Gang Green.

The winners, if there are any, are the Philadelphia Eagles, who get an elite player on a good contract for them and where they are as a team.  Here’s the problem: the on-field implications of Asomugha to the Eagles don’t make that much sense for the Eagles.  They traded for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie two days ago, after their no. 2 CB hole was filled because they were poised to get Joselio Hanson back off of IR.  Now Asomugha comes in, and they still have Asante Samuel on the roster, who they might trade…or might not.

The book for beating the Eagles defense doesn’t change much with Asomugha in the fold.  Now if they keep Samuel and DRC and Hanson, this becomes a very interesting defense.  Not a great one, mind you.  But one where winning the match-up battle becomes less about spreading out the defense and throwing the ball vs trying to do everything out of your run-oriented formations.  If the Eagles opt to move Samuel for draft picks though, well, then this defense just looks a lot like the unit that the Eagles took into last year.

So I don’t see this as a super-awesome franchise defining moment for the Eagles.  Asomugha becomes the best player on that defense, but isn’t really a scheme fit, and the Eagles might have problems incorporating his skill set in a way that doesn’t make the guy playing opposite him an easy target for offenses.  Maybe they have that solved already.  It’s hard to say from the perspective of an outsider.  What is easy to say at this point is the Asomugha free agency saga had a bunch of twists and turns, and at the end of it all, I’m not convinced that any party or fanbase will leave satisfied.

I think — speaking very generally here — the players did a good job capturing which players were among the 100 best in the NFL.  Perhaps one of the most surprising things is that two of the top 20 players, as voted on by the players, qualified for unrestricted free agency in the last year or so: Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders, and Julius Peppers of the Bears.  However, one big name with the same qualifications as those two players was left off the top 100 list presumably because of events that occurred after he signed a large free agent contract.

That player is Albert Haynesworth.

Not only does Haynesworth deserve to be on the list, but depending on his usage pattern, there are a couple of players in the top TEN who don’t offer the impact on the game that Haynesworth does.  I have no problem with Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, or Julius Peppers being in the top ten on the Top 100.  But none of them are quite as dominant at their craft as Albert Haynesworth has been at his over the course of his career.

Haynesworth’s career is in the process of being irreparably stained by his tenure in Washington, and since this is a list with a bias towards the current, the combination of Haynesworth’s recent disappointments, and generally being a pain in the ass to his teammates and other players across the league is going to keep him from reaping the recognition for being a great player from his peers.  But whether to prove a point, or simply an objective evaluation of what has been recently, it’s hard to argue that as long as the defining promise of the list is the best 100 players of 2011, Haynesworth needs to be recognized as one of 2011′s best players.

There is plenty of uncertainty over whether the Washington Redskins will even allow Haynesworth to play this season.  Certainly, they aren’t going to trade him to the division rival Eagles, who could have had him in the McNabb trade, but now want him with former Titans DL coach Jim Washburn on the staff.  And with the Lions out of the running for his services, there aren’t a lot of other options for the Redskins beyond waiting him out and trying to use Haynesworth to the best of their ability.  So Haynesworth is very likely to play this season in Washington, and however reluctantly, will probably find his way into Washington’s 3-4 defense because he has no other option.

Once Haynesworth puts his personal pride aside, I think he will find out that he’s actually quite good as a 3-4 nose tackle.  Perhaps he’ll be better than any other nose in football.  Only time will tell.  There’s a lot of days left before he has a Carson Palmer type decision on his hands.  And Haynesworth is nothing if prideful.  If he has to dominate NFC East teams simply to win his freedom from Washington, I could see the Redskins agreeing to an incentive-based termination of Haynesworth’s contract.

I fully expect Haynesworth to be on the players’ list when they do this again in 2012.  I mean heck, Michael Vick is the 20th ranked player on the 2011 list, and who in their right mind would have ranked him above Haynesworth prior to 2010?  Haynesworth is both a great football player and a dominating force.  And typically, history has shown that those factors aren’t obscured for very long by personal transgressions.

As clear as it was last week that both late round picks and recent undrafted free agents form the core of contending NFC teams, such as the Packers, we’ll look at a couple of the dynasties that dominate the AFC and examine the role of the cost-free acquisition on building a consistent winner…and challenging the consistently dominant teams in the AFC.

Undrafted Free Agents: Evidence from the AFC

An asterisk denotes a player who is no longer cheap because he is on his second (or third) contract, but was acquired via the means discussed in this article.

AFC South

Best undrafted players: WR Jason Hill (waivers from SF), FB Vonta Leach (expiring contract), G Mike Brisiel, S Bernard Pollard (waivers from KC), FB Ahmard Hall, DT Tony Brown*, C Jeff Saturday*, LB Gary Brackett*, CB Jacob Lacey

Best late round draft picks: QB David Garrard*, RB Rashad Jennings, TE Zach Miller, OL Uche Nwaneri*, DE Austen Lane, WR Kevin Walter* (signed as RFA from Cincinnati), TE Owen Daniels*, TE Joel Dreessen (by NYJ), CB Glover Quin, RB Javon Ringer, TE Bo Scaife* (expiring contract), C Eugene Amano*, G Leroy Harris, CB Cortland Finnegan*, CB Alterraun Verner, WR Austin Collie, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, OT Ryan Diem*, LB Clint Session, LB Kavell Conner, CB Justin Tryon (by Washington), S Antoine Bethea*

Analysis: The Jaguars are an excellent example of a team that hardly ever uses cost-free competition for its draft picks, as both the offense and the defense are littered with second and third rounders everywhere.  Sometimes, the draft works well right from the first season (Maurice Jones-Drew), sometimes you get a huge return a few years down the road (David Garrard, Marcedes Lewis, Daryl Smith).  Sometimes, you draft a really good player, but he signs a big contract and with no competition, he loses effectiveness entirely and is still in the starting lineup because “he’s all you’ve got” (Rashean Mathis).  And then sometimes you draft a total bust (Reggie Nelson), and four years later you don’t have any starter at the position.  If the Jags were better with UDFAs than they have been, they would have won multiple AFC South’s over the last few years, but their roster has always had an underachiever problem, even when it was young.

The Texans don’t have a lot to show for it, but there are elements of intelligent design in their offense.  FB Vonta Leach was a cost-free pickup from Green Bay in the middle of the 2006 season, Gary Kubiak’s first year, and he’s served an entire contract length with the Texans.

The Colts are the opposite of the Jags: they find undrafted free agent contributors every season, and more than just that, they aren’t afraid to play them.

Overall the AFC South appears to be the one division that has had far more success in the late rounds of the NFL draft against undrafted free agent signings.  But the Colts, who use both, often have the strongest and deepest roster of the entire group.

AFC North

Best Undrafted Players: WR/KR Josh Cribbs*, TE Evan Moore, DE Matt Roth (waivers from Miami), LB Chris Gocong (S. Brown trade throw-in from Philadelphia), RB Cedric Benson* (cost-free UFA), RB Brian Leonard (contract swap w/St. Louis), WR Quan Cosby, G Nate Livings, C Kyle Cook, RB Isaac Redman, LB James Harrison*, DL Kelly Gregg* (signed to BAL practice squad in 2000), LB Jameel McClain

Best late round draft picks: RB Peyton Hillis (by Denver), FB Lawrence Vickers, DT Ahtyba Rubin, RB Bernard Scott, DT Domata Peko, OT Willie Colon, DE Aaron Smith*, DE Brett Keisel*, CB Ike Taylor* (contract expiring), FB Le’Ron McClain, OT Jared Gaither, LB Jarret Johnson*,

Analysis: One of the more loaded NFL divisions now that the Browns have decided to join the party.  And there a significant undrafted flavor in this division, although not so much recently, so if you’re looking for the decline of the Steelers and Ravens soon, you can look at the inefficiency in the cost structure of their (still very loaded) respective rosters.  Look at the Steelers for example.  You have two pro bowl 3-4 ends who were developmental draft picks.  They are now being paid like starters.  Also being paid like starters are their future replacements, first round picks Ziggy Hood (2009) and Cam Heyward (2011).  Casey Hampton is a nose tackle entering his mid-thirties on an expensive contract he signed in 2010.  Longtime backup Chris Hoke is an unrestricted free agent, and highly undervalued.  Then at the linebacker level, James Harrison is still elite, but in the middle of a mega deal.  Lamarr Woodley has the franchise tag, and figures to sign a mega deal to offer Pittsburgh cap relief (whenever there is a cap again).  Where does that leave Lawrence Timmons, an elite interior linebacker in the last year of his rookie contract?  Pittsburgh will likely resign him too, but likely will have to release Aaron Smith to free up that salary.  They got a discount on Ryan Clark (thanks, rest of the NFL), but can’t afford depth behind him and Polamalu.  And Ike Taylor is probably walking because the Steelers feel can win without him.  If you look at the cost structure of the Steelers, you can maybe see the business reason for dealing Santonio Holmes when they did: they couldn’t have afforded him anyway.  That’s a terrible cost structure, and we just covered the defense.  The Ravens aren’t a lot better, except that they haven’t tied 100 million up in a quarterback yet.

This is a good division for UDFAs, and no franchise is an obvious leader in terms of efficiency.  The teams that have the most talent are also paying the most to keep their talent.  That means the Browns and Bengals will have every chance to rise as the Steelers and Ravens age, but must continue to add talent to play a meaningful role in the future.

AFC East

Best undrafted free agents: RB Fred Jackson, WR Davone Bess*, WR Brian Hartline, LB Cameron Wake, RB BenJarvus Green Ellis, RB Danny Woodhead, DE Mike Wright*, G Brandon Moore*, DE Mike DeVito

Best late round draft picks: WR Stevie Johnson, OT Demetrius Bell, DT Kyle Williams*, CB Terrence McGee*, NT Paul Soliai, S Yeremiah Bell*, TE Aaron Hernandez, C Dan Koppen*, LB Rob Ninkovich (by New Orleans), WR Jericho Cotchery*, WR Brad Smith (expired contract), G Matt Slauson

Analysis: Few teams have been able to extract more value out of undrafted free agents than have the Miami Dolphins, who built most of their receiving corps from college UDFAs, and went to the CFL to find Cameron Wake, one of the NFL’s most terrifying pass rushers.  One of the teams that may have the Dolphins bested, unsurprisingly, is the New England Patriots if only because they can turn BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead into household names, and people are so generally unimpressed that the number one surprise about the Patriots’ undrafted free agent tactics is who they will find this year.  The Pats have not been nearly as successful at receiver as they have been at running back in finding cost-free, winning options.  As far as cost structure goes, it’s still the Dolphins world in the AFC East.  Of course, that was before they brought Brandon Marshall on board.  We will see where he takes them.

The Bills have little to speak of.  Kyle Williams is on a team friendly deal: he earned his extension through 2012, and he’s due even more money from someone when that deal runs out.  Fantasy owners know all about the Bills one undrafted contributor, RB Fred Jackson.  His undrafted contributions are limited by the fact that he is almost 30 years old, and that the Bills have spent two first round picks on RBs since he’s been on the team.  WR Stevie Johnson was a big time draft steal, but that’s all the Bills have done in the late rounds to date.

The Jets have always done a good job finding cheap players to plug their holes, although they have long preferred (even prior to Eric Mangini) the veteran free agent route to going with undrafted players and developing them.

AFC West

Best undrafted free agents: G Brian Waters*, G Ryan Lilja (waivers from Indianapolis), DE Wallace Gilberry, LB Jovan Belcher, FB Marcell Reese, DT Tommy Kelly*, CB Chris Johnson*, RB Mike Tolbert, WR Malcolm Floyd (expiring contract), TE Antonio Gates*, G Kris Dielman*, NT Antonio Garay (waivers from Chicago), LB Antwaan Applewhite

Best late round draft picks: OT Barry Richardson, CB Brandon Carr, WR Louis Murphy, WR Jacoby Ford, WR Chaz Schilens, DE Trevor Scott, S Tyvon Branch, DE Elvis Dumerville*, CB Perrish Cox, RB Darren Sproles, FB Jacob Hester, NT Cam Thomas, DE Jacques Cesaire*, LB Shaun Phillips*

Analysis: Really, the only place in which Scott Pioli has outperformed the Patriots since he took over in Kansas City is in terms of undrafted free agents, on the backs of which the Chiefs have successfully rebuilt their defense.  But if we’re giving credit to the Chiefs for rebuilding their defense on the cheap, what do you say about the Raiders, who have given Jason Campbell more weapons than he ever had in Washington and they spent: a 7th rounder in 2008, 4th rounder in 2009, a 4th rounder in 2010, and now in Denarius Moore works out, a 6th rounder in 2011.  If only their mid round picks spent on protecting Campbell could work out as well.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders are vastly outpacing the Denver Broncos in undrafted free agent contribution.  In fact, Denver does not have an undrafted, cost-effective player who is in the starting lineup right now.

The San Diego Chargers are the gold standard for this exercise.  No team in the last decade has done a better job finding talent from all sources, particularly those sources which do not cost the Chargers might to take a look see.  Tolbert, Floyd, and Gates could start for nearly any team in the league, and have helped to keep the Chargers near the top of the league leaderboards.  Kris Dielman has long been the leader on the Chargers OL.  Did you know he too was undrafted?  He was.  What about young Antwaan Appelwhite?  He was undrafted as well.

And the Chargers deserve credit for how they attack the late rounds of the NFL Draft as well.  Jacques Cesaire has been a contributer on the DL of the Chargers since they’ve been playing a 3-4.  Stephen Cooper, Brandon Siler, and Kevin Burnett make this LB corps a strength.  And this team is still loaded with plenty of prospects.

The Chargers have had some difficult drafts since 2009.  They haven’t gotten a lot of return on their picks in the first two rounds, notably LB Larry English, RB Ryan Mathews, and LB Donald Butler didn’t play last year.  But this team is still a good pick, annually, to reach the super bowl, and it’s because of excellent roster construction on the cheap.  No team has been better at building resource-free than the San Diego Chargers, a great bet to be the team of the 2010′s.

Short of draftniks actually admitting that JaMarcus Russell had no business being drafted in the first round with the first overall pick, today’s official release of Russell onto NFL waivers, at only age 24, indeed confirms (as close as we can reasonable do so, at least) that Lane Kiffin was right.  What you may not realize is that — while Kiffin didn’t exactly respect Russell’s ability to become the next John Elway — Russell’s most successful stretch with the Raiders came under Kiffin, at the beginning of 2008.

There are multiple ways to evaluate a player using statistics.  By that, I don’t mean that you can use multiple statistics to evaluate a player, although that is certainly true.  I mean that you can use statistics to try to predict how Russell would measure up against other NFL QBs.  When you look at his completion percentage from 2008 (53.8%), it was obvious that Russell was never going to improve on that enough to be a quality NFL QB.  The Raiders needed to know that going into the 2009 season, but with freely available information, the Raiders probably should have known at least that much when Russell was drafted.

Truth is, if the Russell-Elway comparison was ever an apt one, it would be ludicrous to get rid of Russell now, coming off of a down season, with that sort of potential.  Russell was never going to approach Elway, and this was essentially Kiffin’s point pre-draft: the comparison was not accurate.  Predictive statistics, going as far back as Russell’s LSU days, suggest that Russell compares poorly to the group that is known as “NFL quarterbacks.”  What Russell had to overcome it was his physical tools, which the Raiders certainly never prepared themselves to use his arsenal of elite physical gifts.

Predictive statistics hated the Raiders’ decision to use the first overall pick on Russell, and they completely support the Raiders choice to trade for Jason Campbell, and the decision today to rid themselves of Russell.  If the idea was to get an above average quarterback, drafting/developing Russell was just wasted time and money.  But predictive statistics aren’t the only kind of statistics.  Maybe Russell wasn’t a good pick.  He probably was a complete waste of time and money.  However, there are statistics that suggest that he went from competent player with the Raiders in 2008 under Lane Kiffin (then Tom Cable), to a complete disaster under Cable in 2009.  Frankly, these are the descriptive statistics that the Raiders need to now be concerned with.

In 2008, Russell threw 13 TDs and only 8 INTs.  He was sacked on 7.8% of pass attempts, a high figure, but nothing compared to the 11.8% that was a reality this year.  His 6.6 yards per attempt figure was pretty respectable.  None of these stats suggest that Russell was a budding superstar, and when combined with his 53% completion percentage, it was a bad year overall, but those numbers look like something produced by a professional quarterback.  According to yards above replacement, Russell actually made it to replacement level that year (though he falls considerably below when you adjust for quality of defenses he faced).

It would be easy for the Raiders to just internalize all of Russell’s 2009 mistakes as products of personal regression, especially now that he’s not part of the organization, but I would strongly recommend that they internally evaluate what role that their post-Kiffin decisions had in ruining whatever they might have once had in Russell.  Kiffin, to his credit, took Russell under his wing, and in four games as head coach of the Raiders in 2008, JaMarcus Russell posted a 84.9 QB Rating, throwing 4 TDs to only 1 INT.  Russell did have some disaster starts in 2008, but they were few and far between.

The stunning thing about this discovery, is that even given the Raiders making a bad draft pick AND not giving him a lot of help, there was still something in Russell that could have been developed.  Above, I argued that the Raiders were wasting their time developing him, and that’s probably still accurate.  But with all the time they did put into them, and given the disastrous result in 2009, the Raiders need to fix what actually ruined JaMarcus Russell.  Acquiring Jason Campbell fixes the first part of the Raiders’ QB conundrum, getting a guy who compares well to others who play the position in the NFL.  Fixing the other end of the equation is what the Raiders need to do in order to be a playoff team in 2010.  It’s also the hardest problem to diagnose.  The only thing we know for sure, is that the 2008 Raiders were a much more quarterback friendly team than the 2009 Raiders.  I suspect the difference is in the playcalling difference from Kiffin to Cable (Hue Jackson will call plays this year), and in the quality of the OL (Cable will be more involved with the OL this year).

Based on this, should someone give Russell another chance?  My initial reaction in writing this article was, no, bringing Russell into your camp is a waste of everyone’s time.  Thing is, he’s not turning 25 until the NFL preseason.  He’s really not a good guy to rely on as your backup quarterback, but what about the teams keeping three quarterbacks?  Is there something tangible (non-Elway related?) to kick around with JaMarcus Russell?

After a more extensive review, I choose to uphold my original notion.  My assessment is that JaMarcus Russell is more the player he was in 2008 than he was in 2009, and getting out of Oakland will do him good, but even if you give him enough practice reps to develop him in a new system, his potential to be a quality NFL quarterback just isn’t very good.  I do believe he can be trained into be a competent downfield passer, but Russell isn’t anyones competitive advantage.  Because of that, I have a hard time seeing who, if anyone, would be wise to take him on, and at this point, I’m not sure that even one team is going to be willing to even work out Russell at this point.  He’s viewed around the league as a toxic asset, and while that’s more perception than reality, the truth is Russell just isn’t very good at football, and he’s not the kind of player who would suddenly be an accurate passer with pocket presence four or five years down the road.  His birthdate will draw some eyes, but ultimately, I don’t see any one team giving Russell a second chance.

At least not this season.

After one high pressure week of free agency, and plenty of bargains might I add (looking at you Ryan Clark, Aaron Kampman), the market has been stripped of the top end talent at most positions.  And with the pressure off teams to go out and improve their teams now, some teams will be able to find steals on the secondary market.

So, where’s the value?  In most years, now that we are more than ten days into the league year, the quickest way to improve would be through a trade.  This year would be no exception to that rule.  But trades are often costly in terms of draft pick compensation, and because of the type of player that works his way onto “the outs” with his coaching staff, trade targets, talented as they are usually come with a catch.  No team has been willing to throw a first round pick at Brandon Marshall in either an offer sheet or a trade agreement, because of the baggage associated with acquiring him.

The talent on the value free agent market usually tends to be position-specific.  The free agent defensive lineman who didn’t get saddled with the franchise tag flew off the board like wildfire.  The defensive backs class, weak to begin with, was picked to shreds early on.  Want a quality quarterback? Forget about it! The Cleveland contract with Jake Delhomme tells you everything you need to know about the market rate for prior success at the position.  The running back class was old, and has been weakened from its original form by the multi-year contracts thrown at players like Chester Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Larry Johnson.

So what’s left?  Well, team needs have to be specific to the holes on the team who is pursuing these players, but two markets of unrestricted free agents remain relatively untouched: interior lineman, and linebackers.  The Cincinnati Bengals have failed to reach agreement with RG Bobbie Williams, who was one of the best two or three players on the market to begin with.  Williams has had weight issues in his career, but he was at his best all of last season, and while teams shouldn’t pay above market rates based off career years, it’s hard to imagine a team not improving instantly with his acquisition.  Same with Texans’ LG Chester Pitts.  Talks between Pitts and the Texans are ongoing, however, he’s available to any team who plays the zone scheme and needs an above average pass blocker at left guard at a pretty reasonable cost.  Any takers?

After a small dropoff, teams can also bid on 39-year old Kevin Mawae, who remains a quality center in this league even at an advanced age, or they can take a chance on C/G hybrid Richie Incognito, who brings the dreaded character issues to the table, which are only partially offset by his talent.  There’s two factors at work here that will keep player costs down at the position.  The first is supply, the second is demand.  Relative to the tackle position, which has become more and more isolated from the interior line, teams still believe heavily in player fungibility.  Guards are going to sign after inferior rated tackles because teams are not fearful of losing their guards to other teams and being unable to replace them.  And with supply, we’re four deep right now with average or above average interior line types.  Mawae’s only strong interest is from his current team, the Titans, and there’s a extenuating circumstance with Mawae being President of the NFLPA during this labor dispute, which probably shouldn’t, but will hurt his market.

But with the linebacker class, there’s no real easy explanation to why these guys have been slow to come off the market.  For one thing, linebackers are hard to replace on the open market, and while they aren’t paid like premium talents, its too easy for offensive coaches to exploit below average linebackers.  Tully Banta-Cain and Scott Fujita went quickly, as did Karlos Dansby and the recently released Will Witherspoon.  These aren’t great players, but they are quality guys who aren’t going to have comparable talent available for no draft pick compensation within a month.

For right now, any team could sign Antonio Pierce (given he passes a physical), or Akin Ayodele to play inside linebacker, or any of Keith Bulluck, Joey Porter, Danny Clark, and Pisa Tinoisamoa to play on the outside, but the interest on these players has been slow at best.  Bulluck and Porter, in particular, are still difference makers who need to be accounted for in all defensive schemes.  The wide variety of player available at linebacker (one guy for every role in every scheme, seemingly) makes you wonder what teams who have needs at linebacker are waiting for.  The prices are at bargain basement levels, and the talent is undeniable, pending health-checks.

Now, a very strong receiver market has been sufficiently raided near the top of the class: Kevin Walter and Nate Burleson flew off the board quickly, but the Antonio Bryant deal got me thinking: here’s a guy, who has number one type skills and is getting paid number one type money, seemingly as much about being the next Chad OchoJohnson as being his complement on a 2010 Bengals team that will struggle to throw the football.  Bryant has great future value, but if I needed one receiver on this free agent market to win next year, and I couldn’t get Burleson or Walter, the next two guys on my list would be former Bills receivers Terrell Owens and Josh Reed.

Both Reed and Owens have drawn free agent interest from teams who aren’t the Buffalo Bills, but both appear to have their options limited at this point.  Owens was in the mix for the Bengals, and I’m a bit surprised they chose Bryant over Owens, because Owens seems to fit the purpose of winning now a lot better.  Reed’s name has been linked to the Patriots, and he’s been as good as anyone in the league at what he has been asked to do over the last four or so years, which are the same things Troy Brown used to do for the Patriots.  Owens seemingly has no immediate prospects, which means that all roads eventually lead to Oakland.

That’s actually a pretty strong fit for Owens.  If there’s a fault in the Raiders receiving corps, it’s that it’s young and unrefined.  That’s you, Darrius Heyward-Bey.  Owens might demand No. 1 type attention from his offense, and that may limit his value to a lot of teams even before you consider the things that happen just outside those white lines, but on Oakland, if he can take the pressure off of those younger players, Owens can be productive in 2010, and helpful to the cause in the long term.  Whatever it may seem, going after Owens could be a good move for the Raiders.  Meanwhile, the Broncos would be very wise to get in on the Josh Reed sweepstakes, as they need the help at WR before it’s too late.

Free Agency’s second wave offers plenty of options at only a few positions.  For a majority of teams without needs at any of these positions, it’s time to turn attention to the draft to improve.  But for a limited amount of teams who still are looking to make a splash before the draft, looking at some of the available linebackers, interior lineman, and wide receivers who are still available with no draft pick compensation, it’s these cheaper moves that could end up being the best move these teams have made this offseason.

Before moving forward on this, I need to first establish that being a “winner” in free agency doesn’t precede winning on the gridiron.  There is no shame in not spending money, and in football, spending increases the level of uncertainty about your team.  Teams that are successful in free agency get a little bit better, while teams that fail in free agency can cost their teams anywhere between a few points, and a few wins.

Not spending in free agency can be indicative of a team unwilling to improve itself, but also of a team that needs to veteran influence to improve.  No amount of spending can offset the natural improvement and decline of the rest of the roster, but because of the amount of money in the game of professional football, players who improve teams don’t really qualify as “overpaid”, no matter how much they are getting paid.  The premium teams can justify to players on the open market as to not give up any picks is infinite.

The free agency losers on this list have overspent for players who simply aren’t going to improve their team, and could create situations where they are blocking quality young talent simply because of their contract.  Conversely, there’s no one standard that makes you a free agency winner, but the teams on my list of winners all had first weeks that I would describe as “inspired” in one way or another.

Free Agency Winners

1. Denver Broncos Boston West really did do a better job of playing the trends in the market than any other team, landing a plethora of quality talent to help to slow the downhill momentum created by a team that has lost 8 of it’s last 10 games and missed the postseason following a 6-0 start.  Their front seven was one of the keys to their hot start, but it’s decline led to the overall failure of the unit and the team, as well as the ousting of Mike Nolan.  What the Broncos received in Jamal Williams, Justin Bannan, and Jarvis Green.  Denver has seized the opportunity to release players such as Kenny Peterson and Andra Davis, but with name recognition on the DL, we can say that no one will expect Denver’s defense to play in 2010 at the same poor level that it did in 2008, or with the expectation to struggle that was prevalent in 2009.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers Always the quiet contributor rather than the main spender in free agency, the budget conscious Steelers don’t gain points from me for their quick deal with NT Casey Hampton because they were always going to have the ability to use the franchise tag on him, however, their ability to re-sign S Ryan Clark at a reasonable figure was astounding.  Furthermore, the Steelers were quite comfortable signing players behind him, such as Will Allen, a former starter with the Bucs, while it was very much in doubt that Clark would come back.  Then, the team addressed it’s wide receiver depth by buying low on an old friend in Antwaan Randle El, a poor man’s Hines Ward, and a short term deal on the undervalued Arnaz Battle.  These deals don’t limit the Steelers from chasing a receiver in the draft if the value is right, but if they choose, they’re ready for the season and are not reliant on Limas Sweed to show up.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville, unfortunately, seems like they will be unable to stave off  becoming irrelevant in the NFL playoff field in the near-term future, but their signings over the last week, I think, extend the period of time they can contend.  Adding Aaron Kampman to replace free agent Reggie Hayward is a big time signing, and could be the move that allows Derrick Harvey to reach his potential.  It also helps define their needs heading towards the draft as needing to add receiver help and secondary help, instead of needing to look at defensive lineman.  I also think the signing of WR Kassim Osgood is inspired, because teams always underrate the value of special teamers who aren’t specialists.  Osgood has been to four straight pro bowls as the special teamer in the AFC.  While that isn’t much evidence that he’s actually good at special teams, his reputation around the league is of someone who is very respected at his trade.  In addition, Osgood fancies himself a contributor on offense, and he’ll get a chance to prove this in Jacksonville, but he should be worth his contract even if he can’t catch a football.

4. Cleveland Browns The Browns applied cost effective shopping to a need position at RT in landing Tony Pashos on a three year contract by going just a few dollars over the next best offer (Washington).  Scott Fujita, on the other hand, is very underrated.  He’s good in coverage, good on the pass rush, and makes plays in the run game.  I do have a question about how he fits in to whatever defense the Browns are going to run next year, but leaving that temporarily unanswered, he’s a good pickup.

T5. Washington Redskins The Redskins are not on this list for any signing they’ve made.  They’re a winner because of all of the dead weight they’ve been able to shed as a byproduct of the uncapped year.  Here’s what’s most mind boggling: the Redskins’ current payroll with respect to the 2009 season is in the bottom five in all of football.  Bottom.  Five.  Those huge contracts to DeAngelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth now account for nearly 40% of the payroll of the team in 2010.  A rare case of addition by subtraction.

T5. Detroit Lions I don’t have the same vigor about the Vanden Bosch signing that others in my local media market seem to, but I think Nate Burleson is the missing piece in the Detroit offense, which is also a locally unpopular opinion.  People around the team have complained that the team struggled on offense last year in part because of no contribution by the second receiver, but now it falls to Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson to make Detroit into an elite offense.  They are in position to land a true impact player in the draft, either at defensive tackle or offensive tackle, and if it’s Okung, the offense in Detroit could explode this season.

Honorable Mention: Houston Texans They haven’t gone out and added much talent, but I like the Wade Smith signing, and keeping Kevin Walter was mega-important.  Matt Turk returns as well for another season of watching a middle aged dude punt.

Free Agency Losers

1.  Kansas City Chiefs Forgive me, Royals brethren.  The offseason is still young, but the Chiefs have not moved in the right direction.  Signing Thomas Jones offers a poor complement to Jamaal Charles, and increases the pressure on the third year back to continue his late season breakout, and to carry the load when Thomas Jones inevitably becomes a 3.5 YPC guy…the kind of guy they just released in Larry Johnson.  I also don’t like the re-signing of Mike Vrabel, as I’m not sure what his role is on a rebuilding team.  They have enough coaches on the field, in my opinion.  Then they’ve overreacted to a decent half season from Chris Chambers, and offered him a multi-year contract, the same mistake made by Miami and later San Diego, and a similar error to what Washington did with DeAngelo Hall this year.  The Chiefs must involve Dwayne Bowe and Charles in the offense, and not Jones and Chambers.

2. Arizona Cardinals The Cardinals were not very aggressive in trying to retain the available parts of their 2008 NFC champion team in the wake of Kurt Warner’s retirement, which is defensible in it’s own right.  But I don’t know if I would let a bunch of key parts of my team on both sides of the ball walk while trying to replace them with recently released fodder that your coaches are well networked with (like Larry Foote).  All of Arizona’s losses (Boldin, Gandy, Dansby, Okeafor, Rolle) can be justified in terms of cost effectiveness, but I would have been much more aggressive in trying to replace some of the talent in the system than the Cards have been.  We will see if they can land Joey Porter to fill one of those needs.

3. Minnesota Vikings With Brett Favre doing, well, what everyone should have known would happen, the Vikings are in a very precarious position in free agency, and their response has been less than ideal, in my opinion.  The Vikings can be pretty confident that Favre will return, but honestly, it’s that kind of thinking that will get us all into trouble.  Here’s a team that needs to bolster the interior of it’s great defensive line, given Pat Williams’ health and age, needs to look at it’s MLB position with E.J. Henderson suffering season-ending injuries in consecutive years, and had a weak secondary last year.  On the other hand, the offensive line is the biggest weakness of the entire roster.  And so far, the Vikings have responded by resigning marginal CB Bennie Sapp and resigning WR Greg Lewis, and wining and dining with LaDainian Tomlinson.  It’s admirable if the Vikings are picking now to start developing their own talent, but with Favre’s status very much up the the air, it was almost predetermined that the Vikings would be free agency losers, and they’ve done nothing to change that.

4. Buffalo Bills Terrible, terrible signing of Cornell Green to replace the retired Brad Butler.  The Bills have added seven years to the position, a whole bunch of dollars, and lose a lot of talent.  Furthermore, at a position where the replacement level player is particularly valueless, Green might not even be at that level.  He’ll make three million a year through 2012.  The Bills don’t rank higher because the re-signing of Bryan Scott is a nice move.

T5. Tampa Bay Bucs/St. Louis Rams When you’re down around here in terms of talent, free agency is just one means of improving the quality of your roster.  But there’s a big difference between what Tampa and St. Louis are doing, and what Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland are doing.  It’s hard to improve an above average team with the scraps of other teams, but those are the parts that can help accelerate the rebuilding of teams like the Bucs and Rams.  On the other hand, you could be doing what the Chiefs are, and investing in all the wrong targets.

Value over replacement is a concept that has long been a staple of baseball sabermetrics, even as the effectiveness of it’s measures have vastly improved in recent seasons.  In football, however, measures of value against replacement are far more confusing and open to interpretation: subjective, if you will.  One thing we all can agree on is that the concept is no less real or important to football analysis than it is to baseball analysis.  The only differences are in the effectiveness of common representations and calculations of a replacement level figure.  Football people have to be able to apply concrete evidence of performance to an abstract interpretation of what is replacement level.  If mistakes are made, there will be arbitrage opportunities for shrewd teams.

The main problem in football is that replacement level varies by position, by year.  In baseball, it can be stated that a replacement level offensive player is one who produces at 80% of the league average.  This is probably the most common representation and will never be a downright improper assumption.  There’s no such shorthand method in football.  With no minor league system in football (yet), a freely available talent is no different from one who is out of work.  From a practical standpoint, it’s really difficult to be out of football one week, and starting for an NFL team the next week, contributing at a level that is anywhere near replacement.

A better operational definition of a replacement level player is a backup at any position who offers no additional value to a team past the fact that he has some experience being that team’s backup.  Teams who are successful in the NFL year after year often employ a “next man up” type of attitude to injuries.  These teams can take replacement level players, apply them to a defensive or offensive system, and get performance out of them that is inconsistent with conventional (even sabermetric) methods of replacement estimates.  It’s my opinion that we have to accept this as a necessary evil: replacement level players aren’t always going to perform at replacement.  This is true of baseball as well.

NFL free agency is really our one opportunity during the football calendar year to get a good wide-view picture of how teams value replacement level talent.  In particular, what I’ve been concerned with is looking at which positions get most drained by teams who need to stack their roster with players who have experience at the position.

What I’ve found by studying these trends has been pretty eye opening.  My findings support the previous assertion that the league-wide idea of replacement level is much, much lower compared to the average for some positions than others.  Take cornerback, for example.  Corner is a position that I would describe as being “highly skilled”.  It takes corners longer to develop as players than defensive lineman or linebackers.  But when we apply the concept of replacement to the position, we find that, despite the refined skill needed to excel, players who are very close to the league average (but on the wrong side of it) can bounce around the league just like a replacement level player would.  Look no further than Titans/Browns/Bears/Cardinals (just in 2009) corner Rod Hood, formerly a very successful 2nd or 3rd corner for the Eagles, couldn’t hold a job for more than two weeks.  It’s not just guys who peaked as no. 2 types.  Look at Carlos Rogers, or Bryant McFadden, or Dre Bly, or Shawn Springs, or Brian Williams.  At some point, all of these guys were bona fide no. 1 corners on their teams.  But in 2009, every one of them posted a replacement level type season.  It’s really just the nature of the position: players are quick to rise, and quick to fall.  And once a player drops to consistently below average at the position, he’s easily replaceable.  The freely available talent that can provide teams with a close to average level of play is everywhere.

On the other end of the spectrum, I have found, lie wide receivers and linebackers (yes, linebackers).  Wide receivers with any history of recent success get sucked up off of the open market onto teams within the first few days of free agency every year, and despite this, you still see incredibly high variances in the quality of backup receivers around the league.  After Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, and Josh Reed sign (probably later this week) for good money, any team in need of a receiver will have their choice between 37 year old Mushin Muhammad, Mike Furrey, or Marty Booker.  The quality of receiver that comes at a minimum priced contract is so far beneath the level of an acceptable NFL starter that teams almost have to look to the draft to add players who can play special teams and catch passes.

At linebacker, there’s a reason that Jeremiah Trotter gets dragged out of football purgatory every other season.  Replacement level linebackers are plentiful, but those ‘backers who can both lead and go make tackles never are allowed to hit the open market (and when they do, they get Bart Scott/Karlos Dansby type contracts).  The OLBs have, admittedly, been a lot slower to sign than in recent years, but Keith Bulluck and Joey Porter aren’t exactly going to have to sign for one year “prove it” contracts.  Scott Fujita, Tully Banta-Cain, and Mike Vrabel have been well taken care of.  Vrabel, in particular, isn’t anywhere near an average player.  If he played corner, he would have had to retire three years ago.  Heck, Ty Law has been bouncing around unable to hold a job with a single team since 2006, and he was once a much better player at his position than Vrabel was at his.

You may think of quarterback as a highly skilled position where all the best talent gets bought up as soon as it hits the market, but this is simply not the case.  Jake Delhomme and Derek Anderson were starters as recently as last season, but the odds on either of them catching on somewhere as a backup next year are pretty much even.  Other replacement type talent like Patrick Ramsey and Jeff Garcia could start the year on teams, even though they did not finish last year on teams.  The backup QB market is pretty interchangeable with the former starters market, performance seemingly has less to do with it than coach’s preference for one type of player over another.  Such is the life of the former pro-bowler who can only play at -15% of the league average.  At that level of performance, your career needs an “in” to continue.

But one position trumps all the others in the market’s recent interpretation of replacement.  And when I say “trumps,” I mean it’s so glaring that its’ clear that this position functions differently than all the other positions in NFL free agency.  Chad Clifton of the Green Bay Packers just got a 3-year $20 million dollar extension to remain the Green Bay Packers’ left tackle for at least one more season (he’ll receive more than 40% of the total contract value just for this season).  Clifton is 34, a one time probowler in 10 NFL seasons.  Upon becoming a free agent, Clifton visited the Redskins, who had just watched their offensive tackle of Clifton’s draft class (Chris Samuels) retire after 6 pro bowls.

The difference in skill between Samuels and Clifton is roughly equivalent to the difference in skill between Eli Manning and Kerry Collins.  But the Redskins, desperate for a tackle, wanted to seriously consider letting Clifton be the franchise’s left tackle for the next two years in the twilight of his career, that is until they couldn’t beat the best offer of the more desperate Packers.  Why was Clifton, a below average player, worth so much to these teams?  The answer is that, despite being decidedly below average, Clifton was the only left tackle who hadn’t been locked up by their team ahead of time who hadn’t fallen into the dark depths of the replacement.  After him: Levi Jones, Damion McIntosh, and Barry Sims sit on the market, unwanted.

Across the line, the right tackle market has gotten absolutely preposterous.  The prized lamb in the free agent class was San Francisco’s Tony Pashos, who also visited Washington, couldn’t agree to terms, and ended up signing a 3-year contract with the Browns.  Just one year ago, Pashos was an incumbent right tackle on a Jacksonville team that felt it prudent to spend it’s first and second round draft choices on offensive tackles, as well as to sign a veteran LT.  Pashos has never played a position on any line besides right tackle.  But seemingly by virtue of being a free agent when every other team has jumped through hoops to seal their top two tackles if they ever had it, Pashos had the NFL world at his feet, just one year after being completely unwanted.

Pashos and Clifton will both be among the vast landscape of the replacement level lineman before these contracts expire, but desperate times call for desperate measures.  There is a clear shortage of capable starters at the offensive tackle position in the NFL.  While Albert Haynesworth and Julius Peppers have hit the market in consecutive years to sign elsewhere for mega-bucks, teams can hardly find anyone capable of protecting the quarterback.  And so they are hiring players who might be able to help by the dozen.  Cornell Green, a former Raiders lineman best known for his inability to stop anyone, signed with Buffalo for 3 years and 8 figures.  Green is the very definition of replacement level tackle, although apparently the Bills feel otherwise.  The Raiders felt the need to send 2009 FA signing Khalif Barnes to the bench after a foot injury and underperformance derailed his 2009 season.  This year, he’ll be back under a one year contract, and if the Raiders can’t address the need in the draft, he’s in the starting lineup.  Khalif Barnes has very nearly underachieved his way into a promotion.

Players at the offensive tackle position in the NFL don’t have to be anywhere near league-average to command a multi-year contract on the open market.  In fact, those who are league-average or close to it do not get anywhere near unrestricted free agent status.  It seems like it’s only a matter of time until NFL teams start kicking underutilized backup interior lineman out to the tackle position and letting them compete for playing time as starters.

Rod Hood (age 28), who in the most conservative estimates, offers play at -10% of the league average cornerback, has been on four teams since playing in Super Bowl 43 with Arizona.  Chad Clifton (age 34), who in the most optimistic of estimates, offers play at -10% of the league average LT, is offered a 3-year contract by two different teams and gets $8 million to play this season.  When you consider that corners take longer to develop than offensive tackles, we’re left with only two reasonable explanations: either NFL decision makers act completely irrationally, or a league average offensive tackle offers ten to twenty times more value over replacement than a league average cornerback.

And that’s what’s astounding in the NFL labor markets today.