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The Cincinnati Bengals pretty clearly emerged as the free agency winner of the second week of this NFL league year.  One week ago today, we all freaked out collectively when the Bengals — awash in cap space — did not make a competitive move early in free agency.

It appeared that the Bengals were opting to be cheap and not spend money in anticipation of the NFL’s cash spend minimum going into effect in 2012.  But after free agency’s second week, we’ve seen that the Bengals actually were looking to spend money.  They were just planning to avoid overspending.

In fact, the Bengals have shown a rare competency to supplement their roster with free agent acquisitions while allowing their own free agents to go be overpaid elsewhere.  Last year the Bengals lost CB Johnathan Joseph to the Texans.  Unfortunately, Joseph played like an All-Pro in Houston, and the Bengals may have lost their gamble when the lost to the Texans twice in 2011.  But they have stayed the course, opting to let defensive ends Frostee Rucker (Cleveland), Andre Caldwell (Denver) and Jonathan Fanene (New England) take their talents elsewhere, while opting not to offer a deal to Cedric Benson.  What the Bengals have done differently this year is that they’ve been willing to spend on undervalued players to replace what they lost, and have been willing to spend more on coaching and on scouting then in the past to ensure the long-term success of the organization.

They’ll pay BenJarvus Green-Ellis just $3 million per year to play running back for them, but that’s more than he could have gotten from New England to stick as a backup.  Green-Ellis is probably worth a lot more than that to a team with a hole at RB, but the Bengals named their price and got him locked up for less than FA target Michael Bush signed for with Chicago.  They replaced Fanene and Rucker by signing former 1st round bust Jamaal Anderson, who was taken high because he flashed pass rushing skills, but at age 26, can really handle an edge rushing attack.  Because teams in the AFC North prefer to use a stretch running game, Anderson is a good pickup.  They also signed another former bust Derrick Harvey, who was most recently a Bronco, to replace what physical ability they lost in Rucker.  With the cash savings, they were able to make a competitive offer for — and lock up — their own no. 2 DT Pat Sims, who wasn’t a priority re-signing, but when the cash came available, the Bengals spent it.

The Bengals also managed to upgrade at left guard, turning Nate Livings — who signed with Dallas for 5 years/$19 million — into veteran Travelle Wharton, who they got at 3 years, just under $10 million.

And most importantly, the Bengals managed to re-sign two key defensive parts who actually took offers from other teams; S Reggie Nelson, and LB Manny Lawson, who re-signed today.

The Bengals were fortunate to be in the playoffs last year, but they are a better team right now than they were at this time last year, and with Baltimore and Pittsburgh struggling so hard against the cap to simply tread water in the declining AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals have separated themselves from the Cleveland Browns — an organization whom which they were neck and neck with at the start of last season — and have pushed themselves up into the discussion with the Steelers and Ravens.

When you compare the work of the Bengals to a team that did all it’s damage in the first week of FA, such as the Bucs, before turning it’s attention to the draft, you come away with a better concept of just how well the Bengals’ offseason has gone to date.

Like the Bengals, the Bucs’ cap flexibility was near the top of the league, and they evaded criticism from fans by quickly getting involved in the FA market for three big names: WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, and CB Eric Wright.  By frontloading the guaranteed money in those free agent contracts, the Bucs were able to leverage their cap position to have the most flexibility in the future.  That made those moves very defensible.

But it also caused the Bucs to sit out the part of free agency where the Bengals were finding all the values, such as BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  The Bucs weren’t replacing their own free agents by spending cap room, they were bringing in parts to an largely established, but under-producing roster.  That means the success or failure of the 2012 and 2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tied directly to the roster that made the 2010 Bucs a 10 win team, and the 2011 Bucs a 12 loss disaster.  It minimizes the kind of impact that the Bucs could have from the players like Vincent Jackson who they spent a ton of available cap room to get.  Furthermore, the backloaded-ness of the non-guaranteed cap dollars in the Jackson, Wright, and Nicks deals create a situation — perhaps a likely situation — where the Bucs tear down their current roster after the 2013 season with a lame-duck coach and new personnel department.

I feel the Bucs would have been a lot better off taking the Bengals approach to free agency: don’t act in the first week.  Eat the PR hit that comes from being perceived as a team who is cheaping out.  You can live with that perception of being frugal, trust me.  That’s not a perception you changed when you signed a bunch of large FA contracts but refused to guarantee any money beyond the 2013 season.  And then with all that cap room in the second week, go make sure your own valuable contributors are paid, that you aren’t shaping your draft plans too much by spending money in free agency, and that you lock up a solid amount of ‘Plan B’ roster options to deals of 2, 3, or 4 years in length.  I don’t believe getting Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks — two of the highest rated free agents — does much to save a roster that was already pretty dependent on it’s quarterback, Josh Freeman, and on an underachieving TE acquisition from the 2009 season, Kellen Winslow Jr.  The Bucs OL played well at times last year, maybe the best performing unit on the field.  You were already overpaying RG Davin Joseph and RT Jeremy Trueblood.  Now you have one of the most expensive OLs in the league, and you haven’t done anything to guarantee it’s future performance.  The Bengals have done more for the performance of their offense with less money spent, and actually have spent handsomely to give defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer some real talent he can work with in 2012.

The Bengals may not need to win the AFC North to make it back into the postseason again.  However, they’ll likely need to do better than the third place finish that earned them the AFCs 6th seed in 2011.  But with Baltimore and Pittsburgh in reach (0-4 against those combined opponents in 2011, accounting for exactly half of the Bengals 2011 defeats), the Bengals have propelled themselves into that conversation with an outstanding second week of free agency.

Can a team with no cap committment use the FA market to build a winner?  The answer is not clear, but a two-deep depth chart could be created using only players still looking for a job, and in many ways, such a roster would rival a lot of teams sitting around the league average.

Obviously in a real game, this team would have no stars, and it would be easily schemed against by pro coordinators.  But the larger concern is whether or not a team can be made out of players without a contract that rivals current NFL teams.

In parenthesis, I have provided the cumulative AV rating of a two deep (46 players total) roster in anticipation of a full draft class.

Quarterback (55) – Vince Young, Donovan McNabb

This team gets two guys at quarterback who have each won plenty of games in this league (both are well above .500 as starting QBs in the NFL).  Neither is ideal as a starter at this point, but at the same time, neither deserves to be available at this point in the league year.  We’re happy to have them.

Running backs (43) – Cedric Benson, LaDainian Tomlinson

Cedric Benson is a good pickup for this team, although he doesn’t have a ton left in his legs heading into his eighth season.  Tomlinson is still a major contributor in the passing game, but a high percentage of the carries on this team would end up going to an undrafted rookie, and not to a RB currently on the FA market.

Fullbacks (7) – Mike Sellers

Mike Sellers could captain the special teams unit and can still catch the ball in the flat.  It’s odd that the FB market went so much quicker than the RB market.  Sellers is unlikely to find a job in this league.

Wide Receivers (58) – Braylon Edwards, Mike Sims-Walker, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton

There’s no quality number one receiving options on the market, but there are three guys on this team who have very recently been go to targets on NFL teams.  Braylon Edwards still has a lot of career left, he’s under the age of 30, as is Sims-Walker.  Williams and Crayton are veteran receiving options.

Tight Ends (42) – Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey

I’m excited about the tight ends still available.  Dallas Clark doesn’t fit of a lot of systems, which is why he is still out there, but he would be an excellent slot receiver H-back combination in this offense.  Shockey is more of an in-line tight end.  This team would probably end up starting two tight ends.

Offensive Tackles (72) – Marcus McNeill, Kareem McKenzie, Barry Richardson, Demetrius Bell

Plenty of injury concerns at the tackle position for our team.  McNeill and Bell both can’t stay healthy.  Richardson is a good option off the bench.  Kareem McKenzie might be done.  But he’s the one guy of this group who has showed up and played consistently each of the last eight years, making him the easy first choice at RT.

Offensive Guards (56) – Kyle Kosier, Vernon Carey, Jake Scott

I’m very excited about having a chance at Kyle Kosier, who has recent experience at both left and right guard.  Vernon Carey is a swing player of sorts, who might end up playing tackle if McNeil and Bell can’t stay healthy.  If so, I’d have no problem with Jake Scott stepping into my starting lineup.

Centers (38) – Dan Koppen, Andre Gurode

Dan Koppen is a former pro-bowl center from a super bowl team.  If healthy, he and Kosier would combine to make an interior two guys that very few other teams could match.  Gurode served in a backup role last year for the Ravens, but I would be comfortable with him starting for me.

Nose Tackles/3-techs (70) – Kelly Gregg, Amobi Okoye, Aubrayo Franklin, Luis Castillo

There’s a lot here at the defensive tackle position.  Okoye can get after the quarterback and is just now coming into his own.  Franklin is scheme versatile, and can replace Gregg in either a 3-4 or 4-3.  Castillo has health concerns, but would be an interesting projection as a three technique.  This group also gives us the flexibility to play a multiple defense, necessary because of a lack of true pass rushers.

Defensive Ends (78) – Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, Jason Hunter, Matt Roth,

I have to grab the Ellis/Hunter LE duo to support more pure pass rushers in Carter and Roth.  This becomes a weakness of the team, although not nearly the weakness it probably should be considering that Carter, Hunter, and Roth all can get after the passer a little bit still.

Linebackers (117) – E.J. Henderson, David Hawthorne, Geno Hayes, Quentin Groves, Bradie James, Gary Guyton

The strength of the team.  Henderson and Hawthorne are an excellent ILB group for sub packages.  Geno Hayes is just 25 and is already a quality starter in this league, albeit coming off a poor season.  Groves is a great backup who can help in blitz package schemes and isn’t yet thirty.  James is over the age of 30, but can get after the passer as well.  Guyton has been a nice contributor for the Patriots over the last four years.

Cornerbacks (61) – Terence Newman, Bryant McFadden, Alan Ball, Justin King

This is where we start to get to the point where we can’t build a great defense.  That’s an excellent linebacker level we were able to build.  But this group of cover guys can only achieve success with the presence of a great pass rush.  This team’s best pass rushing duo is Andre Carter and Jason Hunter.  That wouldn’t be the worst group in the league, but it also wouldn’t make the top 28.  And then it’s on Terence Newman and Bryant McFadden to wear the treadmarks of the opposing defense.

Safeties (81) – Yeremiah Bell, Chris Harris, Jim Leonhard, Abram Elam

For as weak as teams are claiming the secondary market to be, that’s a pretty strong group of available safeties.

Kicker (0) – Neil Rackers
Punter (0) – Daniel Sepulveda
Long Snapper (2) – Ken Amato

Cumulatively, this team would be as deep as any team in the entire NFL.  It’s problematic though that this team could not rush the passer, can’t stop the pass, and would ultimately find itself in shootouts with Vince Young or Donovan McNabb at quarterback.  One thing this team would be excellent at is stopping the run.  There are a ton of linebackers and box safeties out on the market, and the defensive lineman still out there are aging, but are disciplined and can hold at the point of attack.

This would be the oldest team in the league, by far.  But it would also be the one least affected by injury to its starters, so that would curb the effects of being an old team a considerable amount.

I would expect this team to win between 6 and 8 games per season.  Currently, between 1/8th and 1/4th of the league would be expected to win less than that.  Which means that a team built entirely off of free agent scraps, and whose only limitation is no existing contracts could not only compete in the modern NFL, but could beat about 5 or 6 NFL teams consistently.

Yesterday’s article on free agency winners can be read here.  Today, it’s six teams that probably hurt themselves more than they helped, plus two bonus teams who are going to end up on a list of FA losers, but don’t really deserve to.

Houston Texans

The Texans were decimated by free agency, losing Mario Williams, Mike Brisiel, Jason Allen, and Joel Dresseen against their wills, and making the conscious decision to move Eric Winston and Demeco Ryans to avoid having to make them salary cap casualties in a year.  The Texans have enough depth to weather those losses, but now their depth at all positions has been eliminated by circumstances.  Luckily, with the draft still to go, the Texans aren’t looking to fill holes so much (they have to take a receiver early), so they can stay nice and tight to their draft board and try to replicate their cornerstone draft from 2006 (y’know, the one where they got Winston, Ryans, Williams, and Owen Daniels in the first place).

Just a year after going from one of the worst units we’ve ever seen to one of the best in the NFL, the Texans defense was the hardest hit by the losses and may reside somewhere around the middle of the pack in 2012.  The Texans could live with that.  The bigger problem from where I’m sitting is that Matt Schaub is in a contract year coming off of injury, and the Texans will be starting two different offensive linemen next year, lack depth at TE that was once a hallmark of their roster, and figure to be breaking in a rookie receiver like Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill.  The Texans were one of the NFL’s best teams last year.  Now they are a longshot to make it back to the playoffs.  It will be interesting to see if Gary Kubiak really did get off the hot seat last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I was really hesitant to put them on this list at all, because the Bucs spent a lot of money (as the league will mandate starting in 2013), and didn’t really kill their cap positions.  But none of their major signings (Vincent Jackson, Eric Wright, and Carl Nicks) really make them all that much better.  With Jackson, if the Bucs were going to bring in anyone to mentor a young talented receiving corps, it had to be someone accomplished.  But will the Bucs throw the jump balls downfield that Vincent Jackson loves to go and get from his time in San Diego?  That’s not so clear.

Eric Wright, meanwhile, had an awful end to his one season in Detroit, following an awful end to his more promising time in Cleveland.  And Wright just got a lot of money from the Bucs for once masquerading as a shut down man-to-man corner.  Nicks is the safest investment of the group, in that unless he does something silly off the field — or gains a ton of weight — it won’t be obvious to even the trained eye whether he is dominating his competition, or just collecting a paycheck.  When you send big money interior offensive lineman to small markets, you’ll never, ever be criticized.  Except of course by the poor soul who makes fun of small market teams for having poor attendance.

The Bucs will be in good cap shape come 2014, but Josh Freeman needs to win now, and it’s not clear that the Bucs’ spending brought him much help.  Of course, Jackson will only be as good as Freeman makes him, to it’s probably fair to put the ball in #5′s court.

New York Giants

Oh, boy.  Here we go.  Since Super Bowl 46 concluded, the Patriots and Giants drew up offseason plans that could be described as diametric opposites.  The Patriots let the market set then started to amass talent.  The Giants locked up Terrell Thomas, then re-signed David Carr, then brought in Martellus Bennett.

The Giants play in a division where they (like the team that’s next on the list) have to do something.  The Cowboys didn’t go full out to make changes, they just released an ineffective corner for cap room, then gave big money to a much better corner.  The Giants had great success last year watching guys walk in free agency and feeling comfortable about the roster they had, but that’s because the ball was in the Eagles and Cowboys’ court last year to prove they could catch the Giants.  And even though the Giants are super bowl champs, they were fortunate to win the division, and likely entered free agency as the second or third best team in the NFC East.  What worked for Jerry Reese in 2011 likely cannot work for him in 2012, and now, they are clearly the third best team in their own division.

Except maybe it’s not so clear…I hear the Redskins are getting a quarterback.

Washington Redskins

The problem is that the Redskins have no clue how to build around that quarterback.  It’s not for lack of effort: Mike Shanahan’s whole plan following the Donovan McNabb debacle was to step back, keep continuity on his roster at quarterback, and build around a known weakness.  The Redskins had mixed results to start the 2011 season, but by mid-season, mixed results turned to bad results, and Mike Shanahan started to spend time watching college tape instead of his own game film.  Well, as someone who has broken down every Redskins game the past four seasons, I can assure him he didn’t miss anything: Shanahan failed to put the talent around Rex Grossman that he tried to.

Because they’ve struggled for so long, the Redskins are a better fit for a guy like Robert Griffin than the Colts are for a guy like Robert Griffin; there’s just more talent on the Redskins roster than there is on the Colts and Browns.  Unfortunately for Redskins fans, add the Rams to that list and that about concludes the “list of teams the Redskins have more talent than.”  Two of those teams are in about as clear of a rebuilding situation as you can possibly be in.  The other also has a former coach atop it’s personnel department.  So it’s fair to put that one on Mike Shanahan (and Mike Holmgren).

Now, the Redskins’ problem is that they hardly have any former first round picks on their roster.  They ran LaRon Landry out of town one year after running Carlos Rogers out of town one year after running Jason Campbell out of town.  They have Brian Orakpo, Trent Williams, and Ryan Kerrigan.  They have Fred Davis and DL Jarvis Jenkins representing the second round.  They’ll have Robert Griffin III.  And that’s it.  They won’t pick again in the first round until 2015.  And by then, Shanahan will have run Orakpo and Davis out of town.  So Griffin is pretty much doing this by himself.

Which is why the Redskins needed to bring in a lot of talent from other teams to make up for what they don’t have in draft picks.  So they spent more than $11 million in cap on Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and resigning backup DL Adam Carriker (a former first round pick!) on the first day.  Exciting.  Well, I suppose we’ll all know how good Robert Griffin III truly is in short time.

Cleveland Browns/Arizona Cardinals

The Browns and Cardinals owe it to their quarterback situations to create the best possible situations for them to succeed in, and for the Browns, that apparently meant to skip free agency entirely, while for the Cardinals, it meant “try to build the worst offensive line that money can buy.”

The Browns at least have an excuse that they will be doing the draft hardcore now that they weren’t able to get Robert Griffin, and so they don’t want to add mediocre veterans to that mix and block potential rookies who need the playing time to develop.  But it’s hard to say exactly for sure what kind of timetable the Browns are on.  Furthermore, when you have the fourth overall pick, and you know who the top three picks are going to be, you should be able to incorporate that selection into your free agency plans.  The Browns did not, assuming they even bothered to make a free agency plan.

What the Cardinals did was worse though.  They signed Adam Snyder to play RG, resigned Levi Brown with the intent of moving him back to RT, and let Brandon Keith walk (he remains unsigned).  The Cardinals have an awful offensive line, and they signed D’Anthony Batiste, an awful backup, to be a backup.  It’s going to be Kevin Kolb’s responsibility to get the ball out quick for this group, and when that plan A inevitably fails, then it will be John Skelton’s turn.

Controversial Omissions

New Orleans Saints – The Saints are being mentioned in league circles as a loser in free agency because of one fact: the sanctions from the NFL on their franchise happened at a time where they were trying and failing to get franchise player Drew Brees under contract.  That’s some bad PR.

Thing is, while wearing the exclusive franchise tag, Brees is effectively under contract.  He doesn’t have to report to camp if he doesn’t sign his tender, sure, but he’s Drew Brees, quarterback of the Saints.  You do not have to worry about him.

The Saints have done just fine in free agency with limited cap room.  Their biggest challenge lies ahead with the loss of Sean Payton for the season and possible suspensions for their defensive players, the Saints could be very thin on that side of the ball in 2012.  However, the Saints could be a big player in free agency late, because in the NFL, suspensions without pay (or with forfeiture of pay) free up team salary.

Miami Dolphins – Allow me to defend the Dolphins here for a moment: the only reason we perceive the Dolphins’ offseason as a catastrophic failure while we look at the Chiefs offseason as a rousing success is because the Dolphins’ owner is a little bit green and happens to put his franchise is a tough spot with his words too often.  One of the two teams improved immensely at the quarterback position in free agency.  It wasn’t the Chiefs.

The addition of David Garrard was a pretty smart move by Jeff Ireland, who needs to start stringing together smart moves in order to win games and keep his job.  Ignoring the fact that one of the best FA QBs was on Ireland’s roster (Chad Henne), no team except the Broncos improved by as much at the QB position as the Dolphins did going from Matt Moore to Garrard.  Garrard is also enough of a veteran to get out of the way next year for Ryan Tannehill (or whoever) to play quarterback.

The Dolphins really do have a good team, and made the correct decision to trade Brandon Marshall while only 31 teams know he’s not good enough to justify the headache he gives his quarterback, instead of 32 (sorry, Chicago).  They aren’t a good organization, or one that seems to have any idea how to win in the long term.  But for 2012, they’ve given themselves a fighting chance.

I don’t have an objective system to grade free agency like I do the draft, but I take an objective approach to charting what happens during free agency, and that gives me a pretty good concept of who wins and loses these deals.  There will be teams listed on this list of winners who made a bad signing or two.  What I’m looking for here are teams that either improved their salary cap position for the future without losing a significant amount of talent, added a ton of talent without hurting their cap position, or in the best of cases, did both.

New England Patriots

Very quietly, the Patriots will bring more veteran talent into training camp in 2012 than any team in the NFL.  Like the Giants, the AFC Champion Patriots entered free agency as a middle of the pack roster, arguably not in the ten best teams in the NFL.  Two weeks later, I have the Patriots as the team with the most talent on it.

Only the Patriots could make those kind of gains, and do it so quietly, that you didn’t even know they were making moves at all.  I don’t think all of their moves will work.  It’s hard to see a role for TE Daniel Fells but for injury to Rob Gronkowski.  I don’t think Brandon Lloyd will consistently earn playing time, even over the marginalized corpse of Chad Ochocinco.  And sure, we’re double counting on Robert Gallery and Logan Mankins here.  The Patriots will end up cutting plenty of players who could start for other teams.

But that’s the point of free agency.  If the Patriots philosophy is to go into camp every year as the favorite in their division going away, then there’s no way to look at this year’s haul except that it was wildly successful.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars probably made a catastrophic mistake with the Laurent Robinson contract.  It’s unfortunate that Robinson will get paid like a no. 1 reciever, because he won’t be the no. 1 receiver even on a team with Mike Thomas.  Robinson, when healthy, improves the Jaguars starting lineup.

But the Jaguars continue to find pieces to build their defense, leaving a pass rusher as the only need remaining on that side of the ball.  With the Texans losing Jason Allen and Demeco Ryans, the Jaguars enter 2012 as potentially the strongest defensive unit in the NFL.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders did not get better in free agency this year.  They probably got worse.  So why are they here?

Because the Raiders found themselves in a dangerous trap when Reggie McKenzie took over the GM position in Oakland.  They had a talent-loaded roster that was already competing for the division, but had come up short on the defensive side in 2011.  McKenzie inherited an awful cap situation.  And instead of locking himself into a veteran roster (for better or worse) that he did not build, McKenzie made seven veteran cuts (including G Cooper Carlisle, who was re-signed) to free up just a bit of cap room in the immediate, but a ton of cap room that wouldn’t have been there in 2013, a year where the Raiders already have $100 million in salary commitments to just 11 players.

Instead of taking one last run in 2012 with Hue Jackson’s guys (a personal friend of McKenzie), the Raiders will field an average roster that they can build towards bigger things in 2013.  That decision was questioned at the time, but looks a heck of a lot better now that Peyton Manning has signed on with the Broncos.  With San Diego and now Denver fighting atop the division, and Kansas City able to improve at a greater rate than the Raiders, Oakland couldn’t have done anything to be the favorites in the division.

The Raiders also took smart one year fliers on veterans like CBs Ron Bartell, Shawntae Spencer, and Pat Lee, while managing to re-tool the offensive line on the cheap, paying for a foundation RG in Mike Brisiel (who replaces C Samson Satele in the starting five), and getting bargains on Carlisle and T Khalif Barnes, keeping continuity on an offensive line than improved immensely in 2011.

The Raiders will not be out of cap hell until 2014 at the earliest, but can compete this season on the strength of a strong rookie class (though they will not pick in the 1st or 2nd round), and can compete in the mediocre AFC West with the team they currently have.  The fact that most media outlets will pick the Raiders to finish last (which will be justified) shouldn’t deter the process.  Competing with the AFC North for the sixth seed in the AFC field (and maybe as a darkhorse in the AFC West) is the upside for the 2012 Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs make this list in spite of becoming one of the few teams with absolutely no long term solution at quarterback on it’s roster.  Brady Quinn is 28. Matt Cassel is 30.  Ricky Stanzi is an interesting backup QB prospect, but likely will not be relevant until the Chiefs draft a quarterback in the first or second round and replace Cassel on the roster.  With the acquisitions of Tim Tebow by the Jets, David Garrard by the Dolphins, and Chad Henne by the Jaguars, I’m 95% confident that the NFL’s worst QB situation sits somewhere in the state of Missouri.

But outside of that position, the Chiefs are as strong as any team in the NFL.  To fix their anemic offense, they turned RT Barry Richardson into Eric Winston.  They also will replace Casey Wiegmann at center with Rodney Hudson, and Leonard Pope at TE with Kevin Boss.  Jamaal Charles will return from injury to join Peyton Hills.  And all of these moves fit new O.C. Brian Daboll’s scheme quite well.  Finding a quarterback will be the next step for the Chiefs.

New York Jets

The Jets are going to find themselves in a tough spot a year from now when they realize how much they guaranteed Mark Sanchez, but that’s next year’s issue.  This year the Jets rebuilt their secondary around an athlete in LaRon Landry, and will move Antonio Cromartie to free safety.  He will be replaced by Kyle Wilson.  The Jets were also able to retain Sione Pouha and Bryan Thomas, giving them one of the best defenses in the AFC, which Landry will only help.

Obviously, Tim Tebow will be a very significant part of the offense this year, though I doubt the Jets are going to figure out how to use him before Mark Sanchez plays himself out of the starting job, an event that would end the Tebow “problem.”  The Jets still have work to do on offense, but were able to fix their WR situation on the cheap, adding Chaz Schilens to replace the ineffective Plaxico Burress.  Up next: finding a running back who can lead the rushing attack.  Cedric Benson would be a good fit.

Chicago Bears

The Bears didn’t get everything they could have wanted in free agency, but they kicked off the period trading for WR Brandon Marshall, quickly added two backup quarterbacks (Jason Campbell and Josh McCown), depth at running back (Michael Bush), receiver (Eric Weeks), and linebacker (Blake Costanzo).  They haven’t fixed tight end and apparently don’t see a possible solution for their OL on the free agent market.

But with the draft upcoming, the Bears are noticeably better on offense in terms of depth to the point where last year’s injury-related collapse doesn’t even have a chance to occur again.  Unlike in 2011, the Bears are set for the long-haul.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were able to name their price on Matt Flynn, and ended up upgrading their quarterback situation without even trying.  It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks remain in the hunt for a quarterback in the first round of the draft.  The Seahawks have weapons out the wazoo to run Darrell Bevell’s version of the spread offense, and a handpicked OL that simply missed too many games to injury in 2011.

The Seahawks had a fantastic defense last year, and only added to it (although David Hawthorne as an outstanding UFA is still a big deal) with a one year contract for Jason Jones.  But the offensive firepower they added was a big deal.  The day after the super bowl, RB Marshawn Lynch wasn’t under contract and the only offensive back who was under contract was Tarvaris Jackson.  With Flynn and Lynch locked up, the Seahawks could be a surprise contender in the NFC West.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons really get a ton of credit for the last two years of free agency.  Since July of 2011, they had to deal with the expiration of 1) all five of their starting offensive linemen, 2) every receiver on the roster but Roddy White and Eric Meier (and obviously Julio Jones), 3) backup RB Jason Snelling, twice, 4) Every defensive end on the roster except Lawrence Sidbury, 5) the potential cap-related loss of MLB Curtis Lofton (26 years old), 6) a secondary that needed to be entirely overhauled.

And all GM Thomas Dimitroff lost was 1) WR Michael Jenkins, who would have been replaced anyway by Jones, 2) FS Erik Coleman, who was released and signed by the Lions, 3) Jamaal Anderson, who he released, 4) Harvey Dahl, who the Rams vastly overpaid for, and 5) potentially Lofton and starting C Todd McClure.

Amazingly, that’s it.  The Falcons seemed to play the market perfectly right in every case.  While I have legitimate criticisms about some player they’ve overdrafted, Dimitroff has fixed the contract issue he inherited with his veterans and now has set the Falcons up to be a perennial super bowl contender under Matt Ryan whose window of opportunity has just opened.

Controversial Omissions

Buffalo Bills - The Bills ponied up big time for Mario Williams, and in all reality, this won’t hurt their cap that much since the Bills never really spent to the cap anyway and there will be CBA-mandated spending minimums starting in 2013.  But it also will not help them as much as it seems.  The Bills spent the third overall pick last year on a good player in Marcel Dareus, but if he’s getting bumped inside in Dave Wannestedt’s 4-3, then even as a pro bowler (should he reach that level), the Bills can’t really get value on that pick.  Mark Anderson raises the overall quality of the Bills DL as well, but they overpaid for him.

The Bills spent as much as any team this season, but at least five, maybe six teams improved by a greater amount this offseason, including at least one in their own division.

Denver Broncos - One of those five or six teams that that improved more than the Bills was the Denver Broncos, who, uh, signed Peyton Manning?  That will do the trick.

Still, the Broncos decision to rid themselves of the Tim Tebow “problem” is a God-send in disguise for the Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers.  Manning will give those teams fits this year and probably next year, but it’s not going to be long until Manning is a 38 year old quarterback guaranteed $19 million on the cap in 2014.  That’s a team in an awful situation, supposing that Manning isn’t still still the best player on the team at that point.  He just might be, because defensive standout Champ Bailey will be 36 and still under contract.

Tebow isn’t Manning (and he’ll never be Peyton Manning), but he was just 24, and was developing a special relationship with the city of Denver.  If he improved by as much as he was capable of improving on a year to year basis, AFC West opponents would have had all sorts of problems competing with that kind of player.  Heck, they had problems competing with him in 2011, when he completed 46% of his throws.

The Broncos saved the other teams in the AFC West that headache by sending Tebow to the Jets.  Manning really, truly does improve the Broncos a lot in the short term, but that more or less makes the Broncos this year’s 2011 Philadelphia Eagles.  A weak roster got a LOT better using free agency as it’s primary vehicle.  What you probably didn’t realize about the 2011 Eagles is that most of their FA signings worked out really well.  But they didn’t all work out, and it was tough to overcome the prior deficiencies on the roster with a stars-and-scrubs approach.

So here are the Denver Broncos who have cashed in their chips to try and get a winning season now, on the back of a 36 year old quarterback, a year after they overcame the odds with a 24 year old quarterback.  If stripping the names “Peyton Manning” and “Tim Tebow” makes that seem like a bad decision, well, then yeah, I’d say it does make it sound like a bad decision.

Denver is definitely not a FA loser, but there’s no objective way to make last year’s Dream Team Eagles seem like a FA loser (outside of the Asomugha contract, which could improve significantly in year two).  But as Andy Reid can tell you, 8-8 is 8-8, no matter whether you get there with homegrown youth, or with free agents.

For your viewing pleasure, here are the NFL free agent lists as of 3/7/12 at 4 PM, according to my own database.  There are players who are technically “retired” on this list.  I will have to manually pick them out over the next few weeks:

Let’s start with the quarterbacks.  Why not?

Free Agent Quarterbacks 2012

Pos.	Last Name	Age	School	Draft Year	AV Rate
QB	Manning	36	Tennessee	1998	49
QB	Garrard	34	East Carolina	2002	38
QB	McNabb	36	Syracuse	1999	37
QB	Orton	30	Purdue	2005	34
QB	Campbell	31	Auburn	2005	34
QB	Smith	28	Utah	2005	26
QB	Delhomme	37	UL-Lafayette	1997	19
QB	Henne	27	Michigan	2008	18
QB	Young	29	Texas	2006	18
QB	Hill	32	Maryland	2002	18
QB	Pennington	36	Marshall	2000	14
QB	Garcia	42	San Jose State	1994	9
QB	Grossman	32	Florida	2003	9
QB	Orlovsky	29	Connecticut	2005	6
QB	Rosenfels	34	Iowa State	2001	5
QB	Johnson	26	San Diego	2008	4
QB	Redman	35	Louisville	2000	4
QB	Stanton	28	Michigan State	2007	4
QB	Quinn	28	Notre Dame	2007	3
QB	Whitehurst	30	Clemson	2006	3
QB	Flynn	27	LSU	2008	3
QB	Losman	31	Tulane	2004	2
QB	Dixon	27	Oregon	2008	2
QB	Batch	38	Eastern Michigan	1998	2
QB	Leftwich	32	Marshall	2003	2
QB	McCown	33	Sam Houston State	2002	2
QB	Hanie	27	Colorado State	2008	2
QB	Clemens	29	Oregon	2006	1
QB	Feeley	35	Oregon	2001	1
QB	McCown	31	Louisiana Tech	2004	1
QB	Carr	33	Fresno State	2002	1
QB	Brennan	29	Hawaii	2008	0
QB	Brohm	27	Louisville	2008	0
QB	Collins	41	Michigan	1995	0
QB	Willy	27	Buffalo	2009	0
QB	Brown	25	West Virginia	2010	0
QB	Gutierrez	28	Idaho State	2006	0
QB	Chappell	25	Indiana	2011	0
QB	Boller	31	California	2003	0
QB	Davis	25	Ball State	2009	0
QB	Anderson	29	Oregon State	2005	0
QB	Brown	25	Troy	2010	0
QB	O’Connell	27	San Diego State	2008	0
QB	Brunell	42	Washington	1993	0
QB	Cantwell	27	Louisville	2009	0

Read more…

This article aims to examine the NFL free agent market, and find where the money may not flow to the best talent.

Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell (30) –  Campbell isn’t a young, improving quarterback anymore, but he had his best start in 2011, truncated by a collarbone injury in Week 6.  He’s a good bet to be one of the best 20 quarterbacks in the NFL over the next three seasons, and any franchise that needs to get something going with a veteran guy who is good with younger players, this could be the signing you are looking for,

Kyle Orton (30) – Another guy who is likely good enough to be a starting NFL quarterback, and is relatively young enough so that you don’t have to go out and immediately draft his successor.  Orton’s value is in his ability to throw for 300 yards regularly while protecting the football.  What Orton has lacked as a starting quarterback in the NFL is a power running game that can make up for his physical deficiencies that originally caused him to drop to the fourth round and presently truncate his numbers against teams that play man-to-man defense very well.

David Garrard (34) – If the only concern your team has is who in this free agent class can give you the best return on a one year investement, David Garrard is the best possible signing in this class.  Garrard’s age suggests that if he has a 16 game season left in him, it is going to be isolated.  But Chad Pennington had that one season where he led a 1-win Miami team to the playoffs the following year, and if any NFL team picking near the top of the draft is looking for the same kind of shot in the arm, Garrard is the guy

Chad Henne (27) – The opposite of Campbell, but no less appealing as a prospect, Henne would benefit from going to a veteran team when his birthdate is favorable on a three year contract and he can win the starting job and lead a team to the playoffs.  Miami was not the franchise for Henne to achieve success, but he was good in 2009, better than that in 2010, and had a lost contract year in 2011.  Chad Henne can be the long term solution for your team at quarterback, but there’s a big difference between 27 and 29 years old and the other pieces must be in place.  Henne would be a perfect fit in San Francisco replacing Alex Smith, though he would appear destined for New York to push Mark Sanchez.

Running Backs

Ray Rice is perhaps the best player hitting free agency this year at age 25, but one can only assume he will get paid as such.

Cedric Benson (29) – Benson may have to sign somewhere as a no. 2 back, but he was once again quite good in Cincinnati’s zone rushing scheme this year, and after three straight “prove it” years with the Bengals, Benson is an undervalued short term solution at running back who can give a team good years at starter production and not kill you in the passing game.

Mike Tolbert (27) – Tolbert offers great versatility having played both running back and fullback for Norv Turner.  He’s probably overvalued on this market as a primary runner.  But if you have a team like the Chiefs who uses two backs fairly regularly, Tolbert as a three-down player is good enough to justify a four year contract with guaranteed money in the $6-8 million range.  He is not Darren Sproles on third down, but he can do everything you ask.

Wide Receivers

I believe this wide receiver class is mostly fools gold, and that there will be a lot of crazy money thrown around with not a whole lot of success.  The Patriots are almost certain to get a good value to sign Wes Welker because they use him differently than any other team is capable of.  What would be great value for the Patriots would mean overpaying for anyone else.  The most interesting name is Mike Wallace, who is a restricted free agent with the Steelers and is probably worth the first round compensation it would take to sign him away, particularly if you are the Browns, Bengals, or Ravens.

Stevie Johnson (26) – Stevie Johnson might be the best unrestricted free agent in this class if Buffalo lets him get away.  He’s not going to get paid like Dwayne Bowe or Marques Colston, and that’s why he’s the best value on this list.

Randy Moss (35) – Moss is going to sit on the back burner as younger players get paid, but he’s one of the better targets of this free agent class with regard to winning games with competitive people, and Randy Moss on a two year contract makes so much more sense than Plaxico Burress did at this time last year.

Johnson, Wallace, and Moss are all options for the New England Patriots, who need a receiver to replace free agent Deion Branch.

Tight End

Jeremy Shockey (32) – With guys like Jermichael Finley and Fred Davis likely to wear the franchise tag because of the premium that is being put on tight ends right now as well as their favorable birthdates, don’t forget about Shockey, who was made expendable by the Panthers’ post lockout trade for Greg Olsen with the Bears.  Shockey is still a starting tight end in the NFL, and if you don’t have a guy who can control the passing game between the numbers, you probably don’t have much of a passing game.

Offensive Tackle

This is such a thin position that there are no values.  Max Starks (Pittsburgh) and Jared Gaither (San Diego) are in line for big money contracts because they are free agents and can play tackle in this league.

The value signing is likely to be someone who is cut from a big contract, someone like Marcus McNeill of the Chargers.

Guards

Carl Nicks is going to get more money than every other guard on the market combined, and it is well deserved.  Ben Grubbs is right behind him in the pecking order, and may not return to Baltimore because of the team’s cap situation; Grubbs, a former first round pick, was the second best guard on his own team this year.

Evan Mathis (31) – Mathis was a cost-free pickup by the Eagles who outperformed most of the players who are going to tax the Eagles salary cap situation over the next few years.  The Eagles are expected to re-sign him, but if I’m the Redskins or the Giants, I’m not sure I would let that happen so cheaply.  Actually, I know for a fact I wouldn’t.  In fact, with OL coach Hudson Houck’s retirement from the Cowboys, they should get in on Mathis as well.

Chilo Rachal (26) – Came out of USC with excellent talent in 2008, and didn’t give the best return to the 49ers.  Still quite young and a good bet to develop into one of the better lineman in the NFL over the next couple of years.  The Redskins should be interested.

Centers

Scott Wells and Chris Myers are both great players who will cost a pretty penny to re-sign, but in my eyes, this class is headlined by a guy who was the Chris Myers of three years ago.

Dan Koppen (33) – The former pro-bowl center of the Patriots has become a forgotten man of sorts, and the Patriots are not anticipated to re-sign the player who started at center for two super bowl champion teams.  He doesn’t have a lot of effectiveness left and is coming off of injury, but Koppen could be out there on the market around the draft.  Look for him to be playing in Kansas City next season.

Samson Satele (28) – The Oakland Raiders have an awful cap situation, and a vested interest in keeping their interest in re-signing Satele quiet as not to drive up the price.  If he could add guard to his arsenal, that would make Satele so much more valuable on a long term contract.

Will Montgomery (29) – Found a home at center with the Washington Redskins.  Will get lost in this class and possibly re-sign for just over $1 million.  This is exactly what the Redskins are hoping for.  If he has to try the market again next year, he’ll be 30 years old, so Montgomery obviously has a vested interest in cashing in while he can.

Defensive Tackles

For every time you hear a commentator declare that the key to a great 3-4 defense is a great nose tackle, just remember that when push comes to shove, NFL teams just don’t put their franchise tags on their nose tackles.  They’re too interchangeable and don’t play enough snaps.  Nose tackles can have a more direct impact on a game than nickle backs, but they essentially split snaps with each other between base and sub packages.  Haloti Ngata didn’t get paid because he was a nose tackle, he got paid because he’s the toughest interior lineman to block in the NFL.

Arizona’s Calais Campbell is the cream of the crop at this position.  Here’s someone who might sit on the market a little longer:

Kendall Langford (26) – Has been made expendable by depth on the Miami Dolphin DL and a scheme change back to a 40 front.  Langford is one of the 30 best defensive linemen in the NFL, and is in a class where there just aren’t a great number of interior defensive linemen with expiring contracts.  Despite this, his name has generated almost no publicity.  Of course, the same issue didn’t prevent Stephen Bowen from getting a big 5 year contract with the Redskins.

Jason Jones (26) – A very dangerous part of the FA class for defensive lineman because he was sensational in the first three years of his career and was incredibly marginalized last year after the Titans let DL coach Jim Washburn go to Philadelphia.  After seeing what Jason Babin did last year, Jones is going to have his suitors.

Amobi Okoye (25) – A first round pick of the H0uston Texans in 2007, Okoye has been around forever.  He has just now exited the discussion of U-25 talent in the NFL.  A good comp for him on the free agent market would be Randy Starks, who was signed in free agency by the Dolphins at age 25 in 2008, and has gone on to be one of the better interior defensive lineman in the NFL.  Had a good year for the Bears on a one year deal, but wasn’t a primary headline maker.

Defensive Ends/3-4 Outside Linebackers

Anthony Spencer (28) –  Spencer is a three down defensive player in a 3-4 scheme who is underrated because his primary value is that he takes on blocks well against the run, and turns action back inside.  The Cowboys always talked about increasing his sack production, but his inability to do that across from DeMarcus Ware is going to affect how much he gets paid.  Spencer can rush the passer as well, he just isn’t a good option as a third down pass rusher with other, better options typically available.

Ahmad Brooks (28) – Brooks was a supplemental draft pick of the Bengals in 2006 as a middle linebacker.  He’s still in the league because he has re-invented himself as a pass rusher.  Just 28, there’s still untapped potential here for some team looking to improve it’s third down defense.  For the 49ers, the pick of Aldon Smith makes Brooks expendable.

Kroy Biermann (27) – Beat out Jamaal Anderson for playing time, but the free agent addition of Ray Edwards makes him expendable.  With John Abraham also slated for free agency, the Falcons need to get Biermann back in the fold.  Will any of their NFC South competition price them out of the market?

Jamaal Anderson (26) – Anderson was a first round bust of the Rich McKay-led Falcons, but he was a very young 21 on draft day, and he’s still just 26.  His first season outside of Atlanta didn’t really change it.  But for a guy who will be around in the bargain bin, Anderson hasn’t failed to flash the NFL skills to play multiple spots on the DL, and at 26, if you can get him to sign a three year contract, you can get the prime of Jamaal Anderson’s career for about two million per season, which seems like a good deal to me.

Antwan Applewhite (27) – He was a linebacker in San Diego for years, and was a defensive end for the pass rush starved Panthers last year.  He’s a great option to have on third down.

Linebackers

Manny Lawson (28) – Remade himself as a true linebacker in the defensive scheme for Mike Zimmer’s Cincinnati Bengals, and now is a very interesting proposition as a 4-3 OLB on the free agent market.

David Hawthorne (27) – I really think the Seattle Seahawks would love to lock David Hawthorn up long term without paying him like a top five linebacker in the league, but I don’t think they’ll be able to.  Hawthorne is one of the very best defensive players in the league, and if there is a free agent signing who can change the course of a franchise, Hawthorne might be the closest thing, at least on the defensive side of the ball.  He’ll probably sign for about $5-7 million per season, with a lot of guaranteed money.  I still like him a lot at that price

Erin Henderson (26) – Had just one season as a starter for the Vikings replacing Ben Leber.  Still, having a season like Erin Henderson did at age 25 is a pretty nice positive indicator for future success.  Not a safe signing my any means, but he doesn’t come with the injury history of his brother, fellow free agent E.J.  Erin is probably the smarter investment at this point in time, even if he’s unlikely to enjoy the career E.J. has already had.

Gary Guyton (27) – Fell out of favor with the Patriots brass, but played a lot of football at a high level very early in his career and could be one of the best value signings on the entire free agent market.

Cornerbacks

Cortland Finnegan (28) – With his temperament, maybe isn’t the safest investment.  It’s going to be tough for Finnegan to get paid in a market that features Brandon Carr, Carlos Rogers, Tracy Porter, and Brent Grimes.

Terrell Thomas (27) – A year ago, Thomas was one of the rising corners in the NFL, and in line for a big payday.  Now, he’s coming of an ACL tear.  Thomas was drafted by the defending super bowl champs, and had the misfortune of missing both of their Super Bowl Championship seasons.

Safeties

Dashon Goldson is going to dominate headlines when he hits the market, but I’m not sure he’s one of the five best safeties in this class.

Tyvon Branch (26) –  One of the best safeties in the league is just coming into his own.  Oakland will do everything they can not to let him get away.

LaRon Landry (28) –  Was one of the very best players in football in 2010.  Has been hurt and on and off the field for the last two seasons.  Washington is willing to let him walk and probably is making a mistake in doing so.

Michael Griffin (27) –  Has struggled with year to year consistency, but has generally been worth his draft position out of Texas.  Just 27, he’s likely to move on to a team who needs more range out of their free safety.

The truth about the Michael Vick contract is that the Eagles can not be viewed as a penny-pinching, financially prudent organization anymore.  If that was the case, there is simply no way a contract like this could have been given to a player like Vick.  The Eagles are going for it.

Vick’s contract comes with significant downside, not in terms of the guaranteed money, but with the fact that there is hardly any way the Eagles can get value on the contract.  They have plenty of flexibility as an organization, but since Vick will be paid like a top five quarterback for the length of the contract, he will not be able to outperform his deal as he did for the contract he signed in 2009.  The Eagles will only hope for some stability at the position over the next three years, and they’ll be paying almost all of their available salary cap space for that stability.  After just two years, Vick’s contract becomes a series of three one year options in practice: the Eagles can get rid of him at any time after the 2012 season, when Vick will be 32.

When I cross reference this with my own projections for the Eagles roster, the structure of the deal makes complete sense.  The Eagles figure to peak as a team in 2012: when any of their acquisitions from this offseason who provide value will still be in their primes, and under contract.  Realistically, 2010 was already the peak of Vick’s career, and because the Eagles were going to be tethered to him in 2011, there is no realistic outcome (including season ending injury) where the Eagles were going to be in position after the 2011 season to say, “thanks Mike Vick, but we’re moving on.”  The structure of this deal reflects this reality.  Michael Vick is the Eagles starting quarterback through 2012.  After that, it’s based on performance.

Now, Vick’s performance at the tail end of 2010 has to be worrisome.  There is no way the Eagles front office could look at the tape of the Vikings game at Lincoln Financial Field last December and think that the quarterback position will never be an issue so long as Vick is around.  He was far better against the Packers in the playoffs, but was still significantly outplayed by Aaron Rodgers.  Vick isn’t on the same level as Rodgers, and it’s probably optimistic to expect him to perform above Drew Brees and Matt Ryan and return to the pro bowl in 2011 or 2012.  But the Eagles aspirations for the next two years has to be viewed as “at least one super bowl championship” and the incentives in Vick’s contract explicitly reflect those goals.

Vick is being paid in line with his abilities for the next two years, and after that, he would need to exceed expectations to remain the Eagles quarterback through 2015.  The problem with the deal, if there is one, is the fact that the Eagles are going to have to move money around in the 2013 league year to fit under the cap, and that will force them to decide at that point where Vick fits in their plans going forward.  Before that, the deal is rather affordable.

Even if the Eagles manage to “win” value in the early part of the deal (they save some money over having to franchise Vick again in 2012, though they lose flexibility if Vick struggles), Vick is likely to make that value back on the other end.

To say this is a good deal for the Eagles ignores the risk in tethering an organization to Michael Vick, the player.  So I won’t say the Eagles just made a great deal.  But a break-even, fair outcome is far more likely than not.  So long as Vick is really an improved player, and his gains in 2010 were not a total mirage, Vick would have to undergo a sharp and unexpected injury-forced decline for the Eagles to not receive at least two years of starter value out of this contract, which is exactly what they are on the hook for with Vick signing this deal.  As the Eagles correctly surmise in the wake of the Kevin Kolb trade, the Eagles don’t have a good plan B on the roster if the worst case scenario with Vick becomes a reality, and there is hardly a reasonable outcome where Philadelphia has to eat money on this deal.

So while the Eagles are breaking the “financially prudent” mold by paying Michael Vick big money to be their quarterback instead of cheaping out and keeping him around on a series of franchise tenders, this is really more in the mold of the team’s other deals.  The 5-year, $60 million contract the Eagles gave to Nnamdi Asomugha is really a better contract for the player than this Vick deal.  Vick’s contract isn’t nearly as long, and contains similar guaranteed money to Asomugha, and Nnamdi is more likely to see the whole deal than Vick.  The Eagles have plenty of outs in this contract after year two.  And it fits their organizational model for contention as well as Vick does as their quarterback.

In other words, it’s a fair deal with limited upside to the team and plenty of accountability on the end of the player.

If I’d had made a wager a couple weeks ago, I would have guessed that the lockout and shutdown of offseason NFL activities would have locked down the movement of NFL centers, at least for this year.  Compared to other positions on the OL, center is a recognition position, where the player manning the position has to be sharp mentally, if not physically.

That ended up not being the case.  Four teams participated in a game of center roulette, more than I can remember in any other year.  The Redskins and Seahawks promoted from within, making six teams with center “upgrades”.  Lets take an in look at the four players that moved.

Out: Rich Seubert and Shaun O’Hara, New York Giants

Seubert and O’Hara both ended the 2010 season on injured reserve for the Giants.  Their likely inability to pass physicals with the Giants plus the overall age of the unit made them easy targets for decreasing the Giants cap obligation in 2010, making the most out of a bad situation.  The Giants promoted from within on the left side of their line, but went outside the organization to replace their center.  Part of the reason was obvious: O’Hara and Seubert were one and two on the Giants depth chart at center the last few years.  There was no replacement waiting in the wings.

David Baas: San Francisco to New York

Baas was drafted in the second round in the 2004 NFL draft, just a couple of picks after the Giants took Chris Snee: in a nearby world, Bass would have been a Giant from the beginning.  He was the best center on the market, and it makes sense that the Giants would act quickly to poach him from the 49ers.  Baas was expected to resign with the 49ers, but the Giants had a need, and this proves that some organizations near the top of the NFL totem poll can recover quickly from unfortunate situations.  Other teams will start Jonathon Goodwin because they have no other choice.

Jonathon Goodwin: New Orleans to San Francisco

The 49ers came out of the lockout knowing they had to lock up their center, but because they never bothered to get an extension done with Bass before the lockout, they lost control of the best player on the market.  The options to replace him weren’t very good: Olin Kreutz wouldn’t sign with San Francisco after visiting.  The 49ers didn’t show much interest in C Chris Spencer, formerly of the Seahawks.  Eventually, SF signed Jonathon Goodwin because the Saints weren’t committed to him, and they needed to find someone to play.  Free agency actually went pretty well for the 49ers, who got bargain one year deals on CB Carlos Rogers and WR Braylon Edwards, but their OL around LG Mike Iupati is a disaster zone.  Goodwin will provide some stability.

Olin Kreutz: Chicago to New Orleans

The Saints probably did the best in this Center shuffle, because a shrewd move in the late rounds of the draft last year to grab Boston College C Matt Tennant gave them a capable starting player that meant they would not have to spend money to keep Jonathon Goodwin.  The Saints have high aspirations this year, and so they took an opportunity to find a hard-nosed vet who could play at a higher level than either Tennant or Goodwin could for a year.

The Saints won this knowing they would have been fine had they not been able to land Kreutz, but poaching him from the Bears makes their interior offensive line the best in the league.

Chris Spencer: Seattle to Chicago

At the same time that the Giants were parting ways with their mid-line guys, the Bears were engaged in ugly contract extension talks for Kreutz.  The ultimate take away here is that the Bears weren’t enthralled with Kreutz’ performance, and felt that they could acquire an upgrade in Chris Spencer.  On the surface, it looks like Chicago was just being cheap and it cost them the heart and soul of their line.  But lets be fair: a change was in the works.  The Bears will need to make Spencer a better player than he was in Seattle to realize an upgrade here, but Mike Tice did a really good job with the Bears OL last year, and so Chicago is a good landing spot for an underachiver like Spencer.

The big idea here was that the Bears knew that they had in Kreutz, and felt like they have more ability now in Spencer.

Max Ungar/Will Montgomery join NFL’s brotherhood of Centers

Two rebuilding teams are going to move their 2010 right guards to center in 2011.  Max Unger and Will Montgomery were college centers who their current teams are hoping to find will be solutions on the interior.  Unger is a pretty good bet to be the Seattle center of the future.  His skill set projects well inside (perhaps to pro bowl level in the NFC), and he’s already a proven interior player in the NFL.  Montgomery, on the other hand, has a lot more to prove, but after six years of Casey Rabach at that position, I think most Redskins fans are excited and primed for an upgrade.

The best available players at the position in free agency remain O’Hara, Seubert, and Rabach, but after Rabach failed a physical with the Ravens, it is unclear if any of these players will be physically able to play in the 2011 season.  It could be that the centers’ market that fostered this unprecedented case of OL roulette, has finally been saturated, with supply and demand meeting eye to eye.

Now three years removed from their improbable division winning 2008 campaign, the Miami Dolphins have made exactly two big splashes since that time to actually improve their roster: they traded multiple second round picks to Denver for WR Brandon Marshall, and they hired Mike Nolan to coach their defense.  Really, what else have the Dolphins done to get better in the last three years.

Well, they’ve drafted okay, and they’ve done well signing undrafted free agents, the lifeblood of an organization.  But as much as I love an undrafted free agent, it doesn’t do for an organization what sheer competency does.  And in the competency department, the Dolphins ownership and front office is severely lacking.  In no uncertain terms, they are one of the worst organizations in the sport today.

It seems like just days ago that Bill Parcells was in the upstairs offices at Dolphin Pro Player Sun Life Stadium, giving direction to this group.  The Dolphins cashed in big with their 2008 draft, landing college teammates Jake Long and Chad Henne in the first two rounds before flat stealing Kendall Langford in the third.  Phillip Merling looks like a bust, but if you need to rebuild an organization that took Ted Ginn, John Beck, and Samson Satele in the first three rounds the year before, then went 1-15, that’s the kind of draft I would want.

Except since then, the Dolphins have done everything to limit their ability to build an offense around Chad Henne, and have now turned the gun on Henne himself.  Jake Long is the best player on the offense, but there isn’t a clear second.  There was Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Lou Polite, who together formed a backfield that could hide a young QB, but with Williams aging, the Dolphins made the decision to go out and get help for their passing game.  They paid a hefty price to acquire Marshall.

Look, that move didn’t work.  If you want to know why that didn’t work, LiveBall Sports’ NFL archives are great for that.  Brandon Marshall isn’t a useless player, but when a team gives up two second round picks for him, you need to question whether that team understands how to evaluate talent.  This offseason gave us our answer.

First of all, the Dolphins have yet to admit their mistake on Marshall, keeping him locked in as their number one receiver for the future.  And after letting Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams walk this offseason with little effort to keep them, they used a late second round draft pick on a moderate-upside running back in Daniel Thomas from Kansas State, and traded for Reggie Bush under the promise that they would not acquire other running backs to make their team better.  Bush is their guy.

Needless to say, the Miami Dolphins have no idea what made Bush successful at times in New Orleans (starting with the fact that, in most cases, he was a liability).  It certainly wasn’t New Orleans’ decision to put less talent around him as not to threaten his role in the offense.  The Saints always used Reggie Bush very judiciously, to the point, in fact, where they were statistically a better offense with him inactive.  In Miami, Reggie Bush is the Dolphins only insurance against working Daniel Thomas (not a fantastic RB prospect to begin with) into the ground as a rookie.  Thomas is the most critical member of the Dolphins this year with regards to whether they win or lose.  Considering the talent-evaluating deficiencies of the organization, it can’t be comforting for Dolphins fans that Daniel Thomas is completely unproven and so critical.

The Dolphins still have good receivers on the roster, but they are limited by the Marshall acquisition.  There’s shuffling on that offensive line — Vernon Carey is reportedly moving inside to guard.  This is HC Tony Sparano’s forte — the offensive line — so it’s possible that this unit will improve in the end, but it’s also possible that Sparano is desperate to make change for the sake of change.

The worst part about this organization is that what they are doing to Chad Henne right now, dangling him out there in pursuit of incredibly underwhelming quarterback names, is something they already did to their own head coach when Jim Harbaugh was available in January.  You can’t blame Harbaugh for not wanting to come to this circus.  Give props to Sparano, he’s handling this job very well, and the Dolphins have a strong coaching staff, and Henne is a more than capable quarterback with some upside.

The 2011 Miami Dolphins project to have a very good, perhaps elite defense, and have some hope on offense.  That hope decreases by the day.  Today’s event: rumors of interest in Brett Favre.  If the season began today, the Dolphins would probably open as the second best team in the AFC East.  By the season, I fully expect them to finish in last place, and it will make the need to turn over their front office to be evident to all.  All except owner Stephen Ross, perhaps.

I would expect this to be a very rough upcoming decade for the Miami Dolphins and their fans.  The people of South Florida deserve better than this.

The single biggest, and most expected move of the 2011 NFL offseason saw the Philadelphia Eagles sell high on quarterback Kevin Kolb, dealing him to Arizona in exchanged for a second round draft pick and pro-bowl CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  Cromartie, who had two years remaining on his contract, was unlikely to receive a contract extension offer from the Cardinals after they took CB Patrick Peterson 5th overall in the draft.  One year from now, the Eagles will have a good idea whether DRC is going to be a long term Eagle solution at corner for them opposite Asomugha, or whether he is just a two year player for them.  This analysis will assume the latter.

To be up front about it, it’s going to be tough to tilt the analysis in a way so that the light hits it perfectly enough to make it look like Arizona comes out on top.  If there was an unproven player who was worth a cornerback like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second round pick, Kevin Kolb likely wasn’t that guy.  Kolb is a guy who is worth way more to Arizona than he was to Philadelphia.  The agreed-upon price makes clear that this deal was done on Philadelphia’s terms.  Philly comes out looking great in this deal, signing Vince Young to replace Kolb on their roster, and Young has a better track record than Kolb anyway.

But for Arizona, the deal is very fair.  This makes them a better team.  A second round pick doesn’t get you all that much in the quarterback market.  It perhaps gets you Kevin Kolb at age 23 against Kolb at age 27.  But for the Cardinals, the NFC West is wide open, and this is a team that just flat dominated the division both two and three years ago.  In fact, think of it this way: the last three teams to finish above .500 from the NFC West were the 2009 Cardinals, the 2008 Cardinals, and the 2007 Seahawks.  The last three teams to finish at least .500 were the 2009 Cardinals, the 2009 49ers, and the 2008 Cardinals.  If you let 2010 shape all of your opinions about the hierarchy about this division, the Cards are hardly any more of a threat to the Rams or Seahawks now that they have Kolb than they were without him.  The Cardinals were the worst, or second worst team in the NFL last year.

But widening the scope of the NFC West landscape shows that Ken Whisenhunt’s Arizona Cardinals are the strongest team in that division since Mike Holmgren’s Seahawks.  And you could certainly argue that Kevin Kolb is a quarterback on part with Kurt Warner in his twilight years, when the Cardinals were winning divisions.  Kolb isn’t a top ten quarterback, but neither really was Warner over the last couple years of his career.  Even with an underachieving defense, this is the move that places the Cardinals back up around the top of the NFC West.

And as for the loss of Rodgers-Cromartie, it was certain that his value was going to diminish thanks to the selection of Patrick Peterson in the draft.  Arizona traded him while he still had some value.  From their perspective, it was to lessen the price of an unproven 26 or 27 year old QB who is about to hit free agency but who his current team wants to deal for value before that happens.  The market rate, in the case of Matt Schaub and others, would generally be set at two 2nd round picks.  To knock down that price to one second and a corner is a better price than the Cardinals are being given credit for.

There are two sticking points here: the personal evaluation of Rodgers-Cromartie as a top ten corner (or not a top ten corner), and the point that needs to be made about the quarterback trade market, contract extensions, and why it functions differently than other positions.  Generally speaking, the price to acquire a player who is nearing the end of his contract is discounted for the team that is acquiring the player, because they are bearing the majority of the cost anyway.  Prior to the acquisition, Kolb had a year left on his contract, and was already being paid like a starter by the Eagles (for obvious reasons).

If you think about it, that means there is value for the Eagles to simply get rid of Kolb’s contract (not dissimilar to the value for the Broncos to get rid of Kyle Orton’s contract).  But it would appear that the baseline for the Cardinals acquisition was full price.  The Eagles did not obviously give up anything to move Kolb’s contract to Arizona.  They received full price.  In fact, they were once asking for Rodgers-Cromartie and a first rounder, which would have been ridiculous.  That would have been the best packaged received for a quarterback in recent memory.

The mammoth extension the Cards gave to Kolb is going to color people’s perception of the trade, but it’s really more of a function of what Kolb was already making with the Eagles.  The Cardinals did not consciously decide that Kolb was worth this much to them, the Eagles and the rest of the NFL had already decided that for them.  If the Cardinals had decided it was too rich for their blood and had gone into the season with some combination of John Skelton and say, Marc Bulger at quarterback, they would have been chided for being cheap and risk-averse at the quarterback position.  The Cardinals have chosen to error on the side of aggression with the NFC West up for grabs, which is probably the better move.

Let’s face it, in another division, the best play here would have been to cheap out and go with full on rebuilding like the Seahawks and Bengals and Redskins have opted for.  But teams like the Cardinals, Panthers, and Broncos are going a different route.  It’s not full on rebuilding in these cities, it’s aggressive turnover at critical positions in the hope of taking advantage of a tight window of opportunity.  If it works, credit these front offices for avoiding the allure of using time granted by their situations to rebuild.  If it fails, well, credit the aggression anyway, but then also point out that the Cardinals dance with Kevin Kolb could easily end up setting the franchise back a couple of years, and that they’re in this a little bit blindly from the very beginning.