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There are two very unique outputs from the waning weeks of the 2011 NFL season.  These two outputs are not unrelated.  First, there have been a good percentage of awful performances by quarterbacks over the last three or four weeks.  Secondly, there has been more discussion about doing ‘whatever it takes’ to position oneself to draft at the top of next year’s NFL Draft than ever before.

So, naturally, it’s the teams that are suffering from awful performances by their quarterbacks that are talking about getting into position to draft a more different quarterback in April.  But realistically, not all the teams that are in position to draft a new quarterback are going to draft one.  There are a lot of different variables that the fans of teams don’t account for when pushing for their own teams to lose out.  Is it really more valuable to a franchise to pick higher in the first round?

The short answer is that yes, it is, because draft resources are so finite and valuable.  Teams pay more to higher draft picks (though not quite as much on a marginal basis as in the prior CBA).  But the additional cash outlay ends up being money well spent because you are paying for additional control of the results of your draft.  You can have the best scouting resources and methodology in the league, as well as the league’s premier decision makers, but it’s going to be much easier for a team drafting six picks ahead of you to produce a great draft even if they don’t have your personnel resources.

Anyway, I did a study using 10 years of draft data from 1997-2006, and then I compared the average career Approximate Value of the players in the data sets, while testing the variable of which part of the draft the picks were made in to determine how valuable high picks were.  I will share with you some of the more unscientific observations of my findings.

The team with the first overall pick matters, but only because of the “generational talent”

In 80-90% of all years, having the first overall pick is not a particular advantage.  In general, there are a finite number of elite talents in every draft, some years there are just two or three, and in other years, there are seven or eight.  But every five years or so, the NFL produces a player such as Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, or you know, Andrew Luck (it’s an interesting debate whether or not there may be a second generational talent in this draft, such as RGIII or Trent Richardson).  In years where there is a well known generational talent, having the first overall pick is probably more than 150% more valuable than having another random pick in the first round, and perhaps 100% more valuable than having any other pick in the round (second overall, in this case).

Overall, the first overall pick came out about 55% more valuable than a random pick in the first round.  However, in most years, it’s worth pointing out that there’s no discernible difference in having the right to choose between the player who goes first overall and the player who goes third overall or even the player who goes fifth overall.  Plenty of that might simply be a reflection of who is doing the choosing: you don’t get the first overall pick by building a bunch of division winning teams.  But if there are a group of elite talents in any given draft with an abnormally high rate of success, the ability to pick one over another does not overtly increase the value of a draft pick.

There is no trend that shows having the second or third pick is more valuable to a franchise than having the fourth, fifth, or sixth pick

And it’s this finding that makes the fact that there are so few trades into the top five picks so interesting.  Teams that have the first, second, or third picks typically don’t have a lot of serious suitors for their picks.  Instead they get a selection of buyers offers, which they typically pass on to pick the players they like the best.  In some years (2007 for example), there are one or two top picks but by fourth overall, teams are picking from their favorites from a second tier of players.  Even then, no incentive exists for teams to pay to get a top two or three pick.

Additionally, in no draft during this study did the first and second overall picks both become elite players.  The best no. 2 overall picks in the sample: Donovan McNabb (105 career AV), Julius Peppers (97 career AV), and Leonard Davis (64 career AV)?  Michael Vick was the first pick in the Davis draft, but Davis hardly qualifies as an elite professional.  The best third overall picks in this study: Andre Johnson (73 career AV), Shawn Springs (62 career AV), and a near tie between Larry Fitzgerald (58) and Chris Samuels (57).

Generally speaking, top five picks did just as well as top three picks over the sample I looked at.

Top 10 picks do well for the money compared to Top 5 picks

But at some point, there is a drop-off between the expected return on the tenth overall pick and on a top five pick.  Elite performers rarely make it through the first nine picks, and the elite performers who do make it that far seem to be likely to fall further.  For every Willie Anderson or Terrell Suggs, there is a JJ Stokes or a Dunta Robinson.

But having a top ten pick is definitely still an advantage compared to having a random pick in the first round, to the tune of having a random pick in the top ten being worth about 20% in total career value more than a random pick anywhere in the first round.  Compared to the average top five pick, it’s actually a bargain (dollar for dollar) to pick between 6th and 10th.

The cost of contending for the playoffs is meaningful

Teams that pick below 11th in the first round receive, on average, a 11% lower return in career AV than a random pick anywhere in the first round.  That means that teams that win at least seven games are more likely to “lose” value in the first round compared to the rest of the league, all else equal (all else is hardly ever equal, and smart teams capitalize on other teams who won’t pick in the top ten).  So yeah, the Philadelphia Eagles are incurring a significant cost in terms of future franchise value because they are winning games after starting the season 4-8, and are now a three step process away from winning the NFC East and making the playoffs.  One more win will force the Eagles into the middle of the first round.  Their last two first round picks, DE Brandon Graham and OL Danny Watkins, have yet to produce a successful season between them.

I did not discover a particular cost paid by teams who pick 21st or lower, meaning that once you are competing for the playoffs, there’s no cost to your franchise (at least in the NFL draft) for making it.  The average 15th overall pick does minimally better than the average 26th overall pick.

How to rebuild a franchise by picking high every year

If you keep picking in the top 6, 7, or 8 for multiple years in a row, and you keep connecting on elite draft performers, that’s the simplest and easiest way to go from worst to first in the NFL.  However, that leaves one conundrum unsolved: pieces for the passing game, offensive skill talents.  There is a premium on these performers compared to other elite performers, and at least in the case of receivers and quarterbacks, a high bust rate exists in the top ten.

In my estimation, drafting receivers and quarterbacks down the board in the first round makes the most sense because that is where the values are found at those positions.  The problem is that to get to the point where you are winning games and picking in the middle of the round (as opposed to trading down), you have to be able to get some sort of meaningful production out of your current passing game.  And it’s teams that are winning and getting production from their passing offenses that are the least likely to make the changes to their passing game using draft picks, and that could be skewing the values we see in the numbers around this part of the draft.  With receivers and quarterbacks being so highly drafted early in the first round, this could be creating the effect which makes all top ten draft picks look the same from a value perspective.

To test this effect, I isolated offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) from the rest of the draft and increased the sample size by two years to help offset the effect of a smaller sample.

There is no difference in the value of QB/RB/WR/TE beyond the tenth pick compared to all positions, relative to having a random pick in the first round

That does dispute my prior assumption that teams should target QBs or WRs later in the first round because their is better value.  If the need is at other positions, and the value is at other positions, teams should take the best player available according to need.

There is a big difference between having a top five pick and top ten pick when isolated to just offensive skill positions

There it is.  The players that really make a difference for franchises and who have elite draft grades: the quarterbacks, the receivers, the runners: teams who pick in the top five or six do not leave these players for other franchises to have like they do at other positions.  That’s why Julio Jones and A.J. Green went so quickly in the 2011 draft, and it’s also why there was a run on quarterbacks around the turn in the first ten picks in this past draft.  The natural risk associated with these positions means that this pushes sounder draft prospects at other positions such as defense and offensive line down the board towards the next five picks, where it makes sense to pick the remaining elite prospects.

There was a very large difference in the quality of QB/RB/WR/TE picked between 6th and 10th, and all other positions.  Of course, this sample did not include Adrian Peterson’s selection from 2007, but did include all of Matt Millen’s picks at skill positions.  In fact, this study over the course of ten years may have great insight into why Millen had so little success in the draft.

No team consistently picks in the top five in the NFL draft.  Top ten, sure, but a two win variance in finish can be the difference between picking 3rd and picking 9th, even if the team isn’t any better.  From 1997 to 2006, teams who selected QB/RB/WR/TE between 6th and 10th in the NFL draft received the production of a random QB/RB/WR/TE taken anywhere in the first round.  It was not a profitable use of a top ten draft selection compared to other positions.  And Matt Millen was one of the biggest perpetrators of that phenomenon.

Conclusions

There is a meaningful value to having a top ten pick as opposed to not having a top ten pick in terms of being able to land one of the elite talents of the draft.  But on average, if that elite talent plays offense and can throw or catch footballs, the stock of the player is driven up inside the top five or six picks.  Even elite pass rushers, on average, are not selected quite as high as players who affect quality of a team’s passing offense.  Players who play these positions come with an inherently high level of draft risk, but the opportunity to draft players on this list is rare and valuable.

And it suggests that the right to choose between Darrius Heyward Bey and Michael Crabtree may seem like it has an obvious answer, but that the differences between the two players are far more marginal than one may realize.

In this January 28th article, I addressed the difference between the relative strengths of the upcoming quarterback classes.  I thought the 2011 QB class was one of the strongest in memory, but that perhaps there were some stronger, less-risky classes on the horizon to reward teams that waited on quarterbacks in 2010 and 2011 such as the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks.  To quote myself from January:

2012 NFL Draft Quarterback Class

The names: Andrew Luck (Stanford), Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), Ryan Lindley (SDSU), Nick Foles (Arizona), Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M), Dominique Davis (ECU), Kirk Cousins (MSU), Stephen Garcia (South Carolina), Jacory Harris (Miami), Mike Paulus (William & Mary), Dan Persa (Northwestern).

This has all the makings of the strong class.  What it’s missing is a second big name QB prospect that scouts love that could get in line right behind Andrew Luck as a franchise type player worthy of top five consideration.  It could get that still from the ranks of the underclass (remember, even in 2012, Luck would be considered an underclassmen by draft standards — though he’ll be a Stanford graduate).  But even without another player worthy of top five consideration, this QB class offers plenty of depth.

You can toss Pryor out of this discussion now.  Mike Paulus is not having much of a season for DI-FCS William & Mary, so he’s out.  Ryan Lindley is falling at SD State.  Stephen Garcia was having an awful year and has been kicked off of the team at South Carolina.  He won’t be drafted.  But Jacory Harris is enjoying his best season under Al Golden and could be back into mid-round discussion.  Now we need to add projected first round senior Robert Griffin III of Baylor, even though like Luck, Barkley, and Jones, he has a year of eligibility left.  Russell Wilson has been so unreal for Wisconsin this year that he needs to be in the discussion.  And my list pretty egregiously left off Boise State senior Kellen Moore, who is going to get a big boost in his draft prospects thanks to the early success of Andy Dalton.  Another guy who should be added to this list is G.J. Kinne of Tulsa.  And finally, despite his advanced age, some team is going to draft Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden in the second or third round to be their starting quarterback.

So from the January discussion, five more names are in draft consideration, and three are out, a positive net gain.  Now, we need to address the possibility that Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, and Landry Jones all stay in school through the 2012 college football season.  With Luck, this would obviously just be a power play based on a certain team holding the first overall pick: the fact that the Dolphins and the Colts have the best chance of getting the first overall pick makes it moot.  But even if Barkley, Jones, and Griffin all decide to stay in school, Luck headlines a very impressive class.  The remarkable thing is that all three of those underclassman would likely be first rounders if they come out (but not necessarily if they all come out, thanks to supply and demand).

Here are some early projections on the 2012 NFL Draft QB Class:

First Overall Types: Andrew Luck, Stanford; Matt Barkley, USC

It has been a long time since any draft has had a first overall type: Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger being the last four quarterbacks worthy of justifying the first overall pick.  All of those guys came from the 2004 and 2005 drafts.   This draft could have two guys in it stronger as prospects than anyone taken in the last five drafts.

If we were to rank all quarterbacks drafted between 2006 and 2011 in terms of how they are perceived today nationally, we would probably get something like Cam Newton first, followed by Matt Ryan second, and then either Sam Bradford or Joe Flacco fourth, then Josh Freeman, then Matt Stafford or Colt McCoy or Jay Cutler, and then Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez, and Tim Tebow around guys such as Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder and Jake Locker (these aren’t my rankings, mind you).  On draft day, either Luck or Barkley would propel ahead of anyone except Newton and Ryan before they play a snap.  Which tells you that QB output over the last six drafts or so hasn’t been very good beyond the performance of first overall picks.  When we limit the sample to quarterbacks who aren’t the first guy taken in their draft after 2005, Matt Barkley is being compared to guys like Sanchez, Cutler, McCoy, Flacco, and Freeman.  You have to like those odds that if there’s a true “first-overall” type in that group, it’s Barkley.

Top 15 types: Landry Jones, Oklahoma; Nick Foles, Arizona

This is a class where, even after the first overall types, there are two “franchise” quarterback prospects out there to draft early with little chance of failure.  Foles has been a production machine ever since 2010, and although he’s a fifth year senior who will be a 23 year old rookie, he is physically as built for the position as for anyone in this class.  Jones is a top ten prospect in any year, whether he decides to come out in 2012 or 2013 will not change that.  He has already broken most of Sam Bradford’s records, and though he lacks the raw college efficiency of his predecessor, he has been running an offense that is specifically more rooted in pro style concepts than what Bradford was running three years ago.  He also comes to the NFL with a cleaner bill of health.

Mid to Late First Rounders: Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M; Robert Griffin III, Baylor; Kellen Moore, Boise State; Kirk Cousins, Michigan State

If you’ll count them up, that’s EIGHT guys I have a preliminary first round grade on.  There are not eight teams that would consider spending a first rounder on a quarterback, and it doesn’t consider another guy, Weeden, who performs like a first rounder at the college level, but is 28 years old. He’ll be in the NFL, but I don’t think he’ll be particularly successful there.  Tannehill has to be the most fascinating prospect in this draft, because he played receiver at Texas A&M for the first two years of his career.  That makes him really a four year player, but one who has only been playing the QB position for two seasons.  There are no comparables for that kind of career path, only in the other direction.  Griffin could stay in school or he could come out, either way, he’s one of an impressive class of quarterbacks the Big XII is producing at the current moment.

Second rounders: Jacory Harris, Miami (Fl.); Dominique Davis, ECU

I’m just helping to frame the depth of the class another way: with these two rising quarterbacks coming off of great seasons, the draft goes 10 players deep with potential starters.

Combined with the quality of the free agent class, any team that wants a quarterback will be able to get one cheaply.  This might be a year where the top names (non-Luck division) consider staying in school for promise of future riches.

After a strong week one start by Matthew Stafford on the road in Tampa, combined with a rather lackluster effort by Sam Bradford at home against the Eagles, and Cam Newton throwing for eleventy billion yards in Arizona — in the same stadium where he struggled in the BCS National Championship last January –I got to thinking about the relative strengths and weaknesses of rebuilding your franchise around a first overall pick at quarterback.

While it’s easy to point at JaMarcus Russell as an example of why the first overall quarterback doesn’t work, the right to choose the best available QB at no. 1 definitely seems to matter.  Yes, the San Francisco 49ers picked Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick.  No, that didn’t work out for them.  But, speaking generally, teams that have the first overall pick generally pick better quarterbacks than teams stuck picking from the best of the rest.

If we truly had no ability to project college quarterbacks to the pros, you’d be better off betting on the field in any given year to outperform the first overall pick.  But since the Bengals picked Carson Palmer with the first overall pick in 2003, teams picking first overall have typically destroyed the field.  This correlation strengthens greatly if you credit the San Diego Chargers with the pick of Philip Rivers at first overall in 2004, even though Eli Manning technically went off the board first at no. 1, and was traded.

With the caveat that there is not always a franchise quarterback in every draft (and sometimes there is more than one), we can go back and examine each first overall draft selection in the last five plus years and discuss what went right or wrong during the draft selection process.

2011

Carolina Panthers select: QB Cam Newton

Other quarterbacks in the discussion: Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker

It won’ t be known for a considerable amount of time whether or not the Panthers did the right thing here, but what Cam Newton did do in his first ever NFL game was have a performance much stronger than any performance Jimmy Clausen had in his rookie season, which justifies the decision to draft at the quarterback position in 2011.  And I think though even though it’s been just one game and the Panthers may someday lament the fact that they could have had Gabbert if Newton’s progression stalls, it’s hard to see any reasonable scenario under which the Panthers could have taken A.J. Green or Patrick Peterson and be as well positioned to make a little bit of noise in the NFC South as they are now.

Cam Newton passes the eye test as a first overall pick.  Whether that means he passes the eye test like Matthew Stafford or more like JaMarcus Russell remains to be seen.  But he looks the part.

Pre-draft, I was squarely in the Gabbert camp, thinking that Gabbert was worthy enough as a first overall pick.

2010

St. Louis Rams select: QB Sam Bradford

Other QBs in the discussion: Jimmy Clausen

2010 was not a deep year at the quarterback position.  There were four quarterbacks I had first round grades on, but the next best guys were Mike Kafka, Dan Lefevour, and Tony Pike.  Lefevour is on his second team.  Pike is out of the league.  Kafka might end up being the third best QB in this draft when it’s all said and done.  But the late round picks this year just weren’t very good.  They were much stronger in 2011, with Greg McElroy, Scott Tolzien, Pat Devlin, etc.

The fact that Jimmy Clausen’s rookie year as it did, and that Sam Bradford was highly overrated based on a win total increase in 2010 which he had little to do with, and what has happened to Tim Tebow in Denver (though, in my opinion, it’s hard to pin anything on Tebow — whenever he plays, the numbers are good.  Vs ones, twos, or threes, Tebow has performed adequately to date in the NFL.  He just doesn’t look the part), this class isn’t looking so hot.  Bradford should be fine in St. Louis.  Colt McCoy’s mediocre rise to starter in Cleveland may have obscured the thin ice he is on if he can’t perform in year two.  Clausen looks like a career back-up: as far as recent Notre Dame QBs go, I think Brady Quinn is closer to getting a second chance than Clausen is (and Clausen has nearly as many career starts).

Unless Bradford or McCoy goes on to become a pro-bowler, I don’t think this class is going to produce one, which is disappointing, considering how many guys in the 2011 class are close to being NFL starters.  Tebow will always have his detractors.  What’s clear is that if you’re going to throw your support behind anyone becoming a pro bowler,  Bradford makes the most sense.  It sure appears that this is not a year where picking a QB first overall was a great idea, but the team with the right to choose (St. Louis) appears to have done as well with their scouting as any team did.  McCoy was definitely an oversight by most of the league.  Tebow may still end up a value at pick 25…just not for the Broncos. (Side note: man, that Demaryius Thomas pick is tough to swallow right now).

So score one for the team with the first overall pick, even if ultimately, this was not a great year to have the first overall pick instead of a different pick in the top five.

I was pretty confident that Bradford should be picked over Clausen, but I did not necessarily think Bradford was a better pick than Colt McCoy.  If forced to use the first overall pick on a QB, I would have taken Bradford.  But because of the depth of the class, I would have taken Ndamukong Suh with the first overall pick, which is a move I think the Rams will regret in the long run.

2009

Detroit Lions select: QB Matthew Stafford

Other QBs in the discussion: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman

The Lions were 0-16 and had to do something to turn the tide, but this was a pretty horrible draft in terms of the production it has provided.  My number one guy was B.J. Raji, who probably has been the best player in this draft to date, at least if not for his teammate Clay Matthews.  So while the Packers made out like Bandits, and the Redskins did pretty okay, this draft was notable because it had four top fifteen offensive tackles in it…and none have really panned out.  The Lions didn’t have a lot of better options here outside of the quarterback position.  Would Raji have been a better pick than Stafford?  Perhaps, but we’re stretching it to put anyone else ahead of Stafford.

My favorite quarterback in this draft was Nate Davis of Ball State, who hasn’t been able to hold down a job because of a learning disability and is not currently on a roster, though all the talent that made him a steal for San Francisco in the draft is still there.  Aside from Davis and also Graham Harrell, currently developing as the Packers third stringer, I didn’t see anyone else in this class who seemed to provide better upside than Stafford or Freeman.  I wasn’t that high on either coming out, but both are big, pocket athletes who were drafted at a very young age and offered plenty of upside.  My preference, by a hair, was Freeman.  Both seemed like much better (if flawed) pro prospects than Sanchez, who I had a fourth round grade on.  Sanchez has his moments, but I do not regret the grade I had on him.  If you put Mike Kafka in the Jets offense tomorrow and cut Sanchez, you’d have pretty much the same team.

There is no obvious solution to Freeman vs. Stafford debate anytime soon.  Stafford is going to look better going forward because of the high powered nature of the Detroit offense (they’ve built around him rather quickly and impressively), and Freeman is still leading a brigade of young, mistake-prone (but talented) backs and receivers every week.  But never forget what Freeman made us believe in last year when Stafford was hurt: that matters too.  You could say Freeman was working with smoke and mirrors, but that’s not entirely true: he was working with his own skill set, a powerful ally.

Did the Lions make the right call here?  For themselves, they probably did.  It’s not without conditionals, but they had a plan, and they’ve executed it well.  And unlike the Rams a year later, they did not miss a generational talent to take the QB.  They actually landed Suh a year later, in no small part because they got Stafford in 09.

2008

Miami Dolphins select: OT Jake Long

Quarterbacks in the discussion: Matt Ryan

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Jake Long is a better player at his position than Matt Ryan has been at his through 3 NFL seasons plus one week.  And while Ryan has certainly been the best quarterback in this draft through three seasons, the 2008 draft class has remained so strong though the length of the rookie contracts that Ryan is no guarantee to be the best quarterback in this class when it’s all said and done.

Joe Flacco and Chad Henne have endured more than their fair share of criticism through their first three NFL seasons.  But 2011 is a new year.  And in 2011, Chad Henne opened up in Week 1 throwing for more than 400 yards while being battered by the pass rush of the Patriots and receiving sub-par blocking.  And Joe Flacco was nearly flawless in leading a 4 touchdown rout of the hated Pittsburgh Steelers.

In a deep quarterback class, the Dolphins opted to pass over the “right to choose” and took the top rated player on their draft board despite a quarterback need that wasn’t dissimilar to the one faced by the Panthers in 2011.  They had a holdover second round pick on the roster (John Beck), but weren’t planning on moving forward with him.  They needed to take a top quarterback, and taking Jake Long first overall cost them a shot at Ryan.  Both the Dolphins and Rams passed on Ryan.

Long has hardly made Chad Henne’s career, and he hasn’t turned the Dolphins into perennial winners.  I’m not sure Ryan would have either.  I had two quarterbacks rated above Ryan in the 2008 draft: Henne and Brian Brohm.  Brohm has proven to be my only true “bust” projection at the QB position in the last four years, though this doesn’t count a plethora of my mid round projections who never did anything (Pike, for example).  Henne may never be Matt Ryan, but I think he’ll get close enough to earn an extension with the Dolphins.

Ryan has proven himself more than worthy of the first overall selection.  But consider that the top five in this draft have all panned out: Long, Chris Long, Ryan, Darren McFadden, and Glenn Dorsey, and it’s not obviously clear that the Dolphins should have spent the first overall pick on a quarterback who completed just under 60% of his throws in college, and less than that as a senior.

The Dolphins haven’t turned around as a team in the same way that the Lions, Bucs, and Rams have, but this is not the fault of a very good 2008 draft.  It’s the fault of a number of awful decisions on the offensive side of the ball that do not involve Jake Long, Chad Henne, or Matt Ryan.  The Dolphins really should be further ahead right now than they are.

2007

Oakland Raiders select: JaMarcus Russell

Other QBs in the discussion: Brady Quinn

The Russell pick was wrongheaded from the beginning, and likely would not have been made if someone other than the Raiders (or the Vinny Cerrato Redskins) would have been picking.  I would have taken Brady Quinn with this pick and Quinn’s skill set would have been far more manageable.  When you consider what totally derailed Quinn’s career: limited game reps created bad decisions related to the speed of the game around him, and a change in the regime that drafted him in Cleveland, I’m not sure he would have worked out in Oakland.  But under Lane Kiffin, he would have certainly had a fighting chance that Russell never did.

With that said, the best pick the Raiders could have made would have been Calvin Johnson, now a central piece in the new look Lions offense.

Of course, the 2011 Panthers opened themselves up to similar criticism by taking Newton over A.J. Green.  Though Newton was a much better college player than Russell was, the Panthers could have easily have missed the obvious solution in terms of upgrading their passing game, much like the Raiders did in 2007.

The best QB in this draft thus far has been Kevin Kolb.  That says more about the awfulness of the class than anything else, but with Quinn still bouncing around the league five years later, and Kolb on a mega contract in Arizona, and with John Beck firmly established as the apple of Mike Shanahan’s eye, the ‘horrible’ 2007 QB draft class — which lost Russell preposterously early, even for a bust — actually has a decent chance to outperform the 2010 QB class, which seemed unfathomable a year ago.

2006

Houston Texans select: DE Mario Williams

Quarterbacks in the discussion: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler

One of the rare chances to credit a team for being unconditionally right to not take any QB at first overall.  Cutler is an NFL starter.  Young has been in the past and likely will be again.  Leinart has a future as a system guy and injury insurance.  That’s a bit disappointing overall, but it’s not that much worse than will be expected.  What we know about this group five years later is that their were no superstars.  The best players taken at the top of this draft were Mario Williams and D’Brickashaw Ferguson.  Secretly, this draft was the Jets equivalent of the Packers 2009 draft where they had two first rounders that bolstered their front seven.  These two picks made the Jets line what it is today.  They knocked this draft out of the park, while the Houston Texans are the team they are today because of players like Williams, Demeco Ryans, Eric Winston, and Owen Daniels, all 2006 draft choices.

The Texans chose to avoid, giving the Saints (who had just signed Drew Brees to a contract that amounted to a one year deal with a five year option) the choice, and they went with Bush.  The Titans opted for Vince Young over Leinart and Cutler, to massive internal conflict that ultimately set the demise of Jeff Fisher in Tennessee.  This was never a year where there was an obvious choice.  I would have taken Leinart first overall if I was the Texans and had their opinion of Reggie Bush (the consensus no. 1 player), and it wouldn’t have worked out nearly as well as their actual draft has.  But because there was still decent enough reason to buy David Carr as a long term starter, the Texans had other ideas.

Conclusions

Easily, this case study could have gone back further, but 2,500 words is not an insignificant read.  What I’d like to conclude, based on a relatively small sample with a limited number of data points, is that having the first overall pick matters because the first team generally does a good job selecting the best quarterback in a year where there in fact is a best quarterback.  Having something beyond the first overall pick means that you’ll have to take a flawed player and develop him.  The best non-1st overall picks at QB over the last six drafts have been Matt Ryan, 3rd overall to Atlanta in 2008, Josh Freeman, 17th overall to Tampa in 2009, and either Colt McCoy, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, or Kevin Kolb, three of whom were not first rounders.

This may debunk the myth of the first round quarterback: if you don’t have the first overall pick, there’s no reason to conclude that you have a better chance of picking a top QB in the first round than any other round.  The reason first rounders are statistically better at the QB position than all other rounders is because of the first overall quarterback.  For every Alex Smith, there are two Sam Bradford’s.  And that, more than anything else, is why the team with the first overall pick turns around so much faster than teams who consistently miss out on the first overall pick (like Buffalo, Kansas City, Jacksonville, or Washington).

Prior to Monday’s supplemental draft, the player most recently selected in the top three rounds of the supplemental draft was defensive end Jeremy Jarmon of Kentucky, selected by Vinny Cerrato and the Washington Redskins in the third round.  Jarmon was traded last month to the Denver Broncos for WR Jabar Gaffney.  He was traded at the age of 23.

In other words, the recent bar for throwing a third or fourth round pick in the supplemental draft away for a player isn’t very high.  So when you evaluate the decision by the Oakland Raiders to not pick in the third round next year and to take the embattled Pryor right now, consider that if you rephrase the question as “would you rather take Terrelle Pryor now, or have a random third rounder from next year’s draft,” it’d be tough to not think that the team is getting more value in Pryor.  Now, a lot of that depends on how Pryor is used, whether the Raiders really view him as a franchise quarterback, or a slash quarterback, or just a wide receiver or tight end.  The Raiders are not the organization I’d trust to make this pick pay off.  But since the question is not whether the Raiders should expect to win more games because of Terrelle Pryor this year or in the future, I’ll spare Oakland this criticism.

If your argument is “the Oakland Raiders reached to draft Terrelle Pryor”, your argument is going to need more than simply “well, I’m not really sure where he’s going to play.”  Antwaan Randle El was a rather successful second round pick of the Steelers in 2005.  Brad Smith was a fifth round pick of the Jets.  Seneca Wallace was a fourth round pick of the Seahawks.  None of those players became consistent starters (with the exception of Randle El for five seasons between 2005 and 2009), and all were worth their draft position.  Based on what we know about third round quarterbacks, Pryor does not need to ascend to the level of a starting quarterback to justify this pick.  He does need to look like he knows what he’s doing if and when he enters a game for the Raiders.

Was this a classic Al Davis pick?  Absolutely.  Did Davis get the Raiders into trouble in the last twenty years overvaluing the exact kind of player that Pryor is?  Well if you think he took Pryor as a pass-catcher, then yes, he has been down this road before.  Hey did you hear the Bengals traded for Taylor Mays yesterday?  Ha! That’s just the Bengals being the Bengals.  Don’t they know it’s a passing league now?!  Larry Johnson just signed with the Dolphins this morning.  Oh those crazy Dolphins!  They can’t tell a valuable offensive player from one who has been cooked for four years.  What an embarrassment.

Criticizing the Bengals and Dolphins is a case of deflecting the argument off the Raiders and Pryor, sure, but it’s designed to point out how little media coverage and blog commentary those moves have gotten relative to Pryor.  The Raiders spent a mid round draft pick on amateur talent, which is typically the use of those picks that nets the greatest expected return on investment.  The Bengals traded a pick to the 49ers for a guy who the 49ers simply don’t believe can play football, a pick the 49ers can theoretically use for ROI.  The Dolphins might as well be burning money in the fire, especially if Johnson makes their team.

Roughly 50% of players drafted in the third round of the NFL draft wash out before becoming starters.  It would not be shocking to see Pryor become another data point among players who have washed out.  That should actually be the expectation here, no different than expecting a Raider 3rd rounder such as CB Demarcus Van Dyke or OT Joe Barksdale to establish themselves as a starter.  Probability suggests that if the Raiders can get two starters out of Van Dyke, Barksdale, and Pryor, or just one star level player out of that group, the Raiders are ahead of the curve.  The Raiders franchise is in trouble if all of those players wash out.  Adding C Stefan Wisnewski and RB Taiwan Jones to that group, the Raiders have spent their 2011 and 2012 second and third rounders on those five players.  With Van Dyke the only defensive player added with those rounds (and a 4th rounder the Raiders spent on Pryor’s college teammate, CB Chimdi Chekwa).  The Raiders have cost themselves valuable flexibility to address their needs that will become apparent during this season.  They’ll have one pick in the 2012 draft in the first four rounds, and there is a good chance they might use it on a quarterback with Pryor the only guy under contract for 2012.  That would be an inefficient allocation of resources.

Still, the Pryor pick shows the Raiders like where they are positioned right now in the AFC, and are willing to think about the future of their offense (beyond 2012) against adding more talent to what Hue Jackson and Al Saunders have on offense.  There’s a good chance that this pick represents unfounded hubris.  If so, it wouldn’t be the first time.  But this pick is hardly a reach.  It’s really one of the better supplemental draft picks made in recent memory.  Which is also why you never see good organizations pick players in the supplemental draft.  It’s a sellers’ market with 5 players and 32 teams, and you always need to take players ahead of where you would get them in April.  That describes what the Raiders did here.  Reach?  That’s an inaccurate term.

This is  a list of the recent drafting history of the Denver Broncos.  And it’s not pretty.

The Josh McDaniels era might be best defined by how he did in the draft.  And while the very nature of the development of young players means that the two McDaniels/Brian Xanders drafts in Denver is in the hands of Xanders and John Fox now, which is going to make the results look worse than they may have under McDaniels, only four players that McDaniels drafted started for him in the 2010 season: offensive lineman J.D. Walton, outside linebacker Robert Ayers (due to injury), cornerback Perrish Cox, and running back Knowshon Moreno.  Two starters per draft just isn’t that good to begin with.  For a rebuilding team, it’s inexcusable.

Now, to be fair to Denver, they invested their 2010 first rounders (plural, because they were able to capitalize on trades to have 4 first round picks in two years) in high upside players WR Demaryius Thomas and QB Tim Tebow, who could be staples of the Broncos offense over the next decade if they are so inclined.  But just a year later, those 2009 picks look awful.  Neither Robert Ayers nor Knowshon Moreno appear likely to amount to anything beyond role players in the pros.  And the other first round pick that McDaniels gave up, a 2010 first rounder for a high second rounder in 2009, which the Broncos used on CB Alphonso Smith.  Smith developed into a starting caliber cover corner, but he did so for the Detroit Lions, because the Broncos waived him after just one season.

The reasons surrounding the firing of Josh McDaniels are far more complicated than the fact that he might have really struggled at making draft picks.  Plenty of other teams have failed at the draft while retaining their head coaches over the years.  The move that may have done McDaniels in was his first pick: Moreno.  If nothing else, the inability to add defensive help via the draft simply upheld the status quo in Denver.  But the Moreno pick did multiple things: it took a really high pick that most observers assumed would be a centerpiece of the defensive rebuilding project, and used it on offense.  But worse, it was used previously on offense.

When you draft a running back in the top half of the first round, the player needs to be the kind of guy that makes so much sense in a teams offense that he starts from day one and is durable and challenges the league leaders in meaningful statistical categories for at least the first five years of their career.  The fatal flaw in the process was that the only defense of the Moreno pick, even at the time it was made, was that he was the highest player — and highest runner — on their board.  The expectations for Moreno were, had to be, that he would be the best player on the Denver offense in both 2009 and 2010.  He wasn’t even the best running back on the roster when Correll Buckhalter was healthy.

This sums up the underrated job McDaniels did of compiling talent.  The Broncos weren’t ever as bad a team as they were expected to be under Josh McDaniels.  Kyle Orton exceeded relative expectations in 2009, nearly lost his job, and then exceeded expectations again in 2010.  Buckhalter was a shrewd pickup.  The team was vindicated, to an extent, in it’s trades of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.  They took the focus off the offensive line after a strong OL had been a staple of Mike Shanahan’s tenure there.  Brandon Lloyd found relative success as a breakout player in his eighth year in the NFL: he had a better season in 2010 than Brandon Marshall ever had in his NFL career.

The defense was the same as it ever was without Elvis Dumerville in the lineup.  Champ Bailey really quietly enjoyed a great rebound 2010 season.  And the production around him was horrible.  That probably helped to do Josh McDaniels in.  But the big thing was the draft, and where those resources were allocated, and what the Broncos got out of those picks.  McDaniels’ first ever draft pick deviated from the rebuilding script.  And if judged by what Knowshon Moreno brought to the Denver Broncos, here’s the lasting effect of the 2009 draft: the Broncos drafted guys who need to be replaced by free agents in 2011.  That could be the biggest reason why Pat Bowlen and the Denver Bronco ownership group lost faith in Josh McDaniels as the organization’s head coach.

Two weeks ago, I evaluated a Big Ten quarterback who didn’t get taken in the first five rounds despite college passing statistics that looked pretty good overall, and particularly so in his era.  Yesterday, former Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor signed with superagent Drew Rosenhaus, and will prepare for the NFL supplemental draft.  Most draft analysts have ripped Pryor’s NFL candidacy based on limitations that have showed up on film with regards to making certain throws that a NFL passer needs to have in his arsenal.

Taken at it’s most basic level, such scouting conclusions are valuable.  Pryor cannot be reasonably expected to succeed if he is thrown into a pro huddle on labor day weekend and told to run stuff he never did at Ohio State.  He’s going to be terrible of that’s what he’s being asked to do.  The tape bears this out.

But the numbers suggest that a team that adjusts similarly to how Ohio State adapted Terrelle Pryor’s skill set into their pro style system will get a very effective pocket passer.  If pro offense means the same thing to you that it means to me, that means that Pryor’s first couple of seasons, he should be utilized exclusively off of the run action and play action, selling a believable play action game, and using the intermediate and deep fields to attack.  Use of his athleticism should be reserved for trying to convert third downs through any means necessary.

If that sounds like a system quarterback who doesn’t deserved to be drafted with the elite, transcendental prospects such as Matt Ryan who can play in year one, then that’s exactly what I’m asserting.  No player taken in the top ten picks of the NFL draft to play the QB position, maybe not even Michael Vick, was as raw and unfinished a quarterback as Terrelle Pryor looks like.  A recent assertion by Rosenhaus that he expects Pryor to be picked in the first round seems preposterous on its face.

Except perhaps you weren’t paying attention to the NFL Draft from 2008 through 2011, when the first round became the round of the unpolished product.  From Joe Flacco to Mark Sanchez to Tim Tebow to Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and high second rounder Andy Dalton, there really isn’t such a thing as a traditional prospect anymore.  And Pryor fits in this mold of non-traditional passing NFL hopefuls.  He actually fits better than most.

Terrelle Pryor completed 62% of his college passes, which is really good when you figure his pro-gun offense and where that number was likely to be had he played his senior season.  Three years as the starter at Ohio State is nothing to spit on, leading a very successful program, and achieving plenty of personal success.  The differences between Pryor at Ohio State and some other *also* highly rated HS recruit at QB such as Jimmy Clausen at Notre Dame is hardly any difference at all.  It may just be the coaching, because that 28-4 TD/INT rate sported by Clausen (the only meaningful difference between the Pryor and Clausen stats in three years) looks a lot like numbers put up by Matt Cassel of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2010.

The problem with game film evaluations is that you get to see very little of what a player is not asked to do by his college offense, and saying that the player cannot make such plays is not a proper evaluation.  Pryor is getting dinged in scouting circles for bad decisions at critical moments in games, and perhaps rightfully so, because a lot of Pryor’s INTs have been of the unforced variety.  Concerns that he flushes the pocket before he has to are also legitimate.  He’s a lot like Blaine Gabbert in that sense.  Gabbert also went in the first round.  There are plenty of reasons to not like Terrelle Pryor’s opportunity for success in the pros, if your goal is to doubt Pryor’s ability to succeed in the pros.

For organizations that have the goal of winning football games, a more important task re: Pryor is to evaluate the man who helped create the mess that Ohio State is currently trying to keep from crushing the pride of the Buckeye program.  A first round pick at quarterback is almost NEVER saddled with the kind of off-field questions that surround Pryor and his inner circle right now.  The only thing scarier than a high-risk early round draft pick, is a high-risk early round pick when the organization cannot accurately assess the true level of risk.  Pryor is a major gamble, and it’s safe to say that teams aren’t going to gamble first or second round picks on him.

That doesn’t mean that Rosenhaus is off his rocker though in trying to market his client.  He may have just picked up a risk in taking on a client like Pryor, but that also gives the young quarterback a bit of legitimacy that a guy like Rosenhaus would represent him.  And while Rosenhaus’ rhetoric may not directly reflect the reality of the situation, he’s right that if there wasn’t a flaming landfill nearby — with Pryor’s steps easily traceable from it — that Pryor makes about as much sense in the first round as many of the guys who are actually picked there every year.  Who has more NFL type ability, 8th overall pick Jake Locker (a great kid), or supplemental draft prospect Pryor?  The college production suggests that it’s not close.  You always take Pryor and give yourself a fighting chance.

Ultimately, Pryor wasn’t going to get picked in the first round of the NFL Supplemental Draft.  Because it’s the Supplemental Draft.  It isn’t the amateur draft.  The demand for quarterbacks isn’t quite what it was before the draft, because a whole class of QBs just got drafted.  Pryor would have been well off throwing his hat into the ring earlier and trying to impress his way up to first round level then.  But that ship has sailed, and if Pryor’s playing the hand he’s been dealt, and that hand involves Rosenhaus’ support, then chances are that Pryor is going a lot higher than anyone is expecting.

This week’s Friday Night Quarterback question is one that attempts to answer the question of where Tom Brady would profile in the NFL Draft if he had come out of Michigan in 2011 instead of 2000.  You know the background story on Brady.  He was recruited to Michigan and buried on the depth chart, but emerged as the best player for the job in 1998 after Michigan won the national championship, starting the final 25 games of his NCAA career, and winning 20 of them including two major bowls.  Brady, though, played for Michigan in such a dominant era that he never received the reputation for being a good college player.

Brady’s scouting report, which is unsourced primarily because it is eleven years old, reads as follows:

Notes: Baseball catcher and football quarterback in high school who was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the 18th round of the June 1995 baseball draft. Opted for football and redshirted at Michigan in ’95. Saw limited action in ’96 and ’97 and started the past two years. Completed 3 of 5 passes for 26 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in ’96, 12-15-103-0-0 in ’97, 214-350-2,636-15-12 in ’98 and 180-295-2,216-16-6 in ’99, when he often shared time with super sophomore Drew Henson. Went all the way against Alabama in the Orange Bowl and completed 34-46-369-4. Unlike many Michigan quarterbacks, Brady is a pocket-type passer who plays best in a dropback-type system.

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the ’99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you’d like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can’t drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you’re looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone.

 We know these there are three variables that translate directly from the college game to the pro game.  First: college completion percentage.  Second: college sack rate; at the major college football level (the proliferation of the spread offense at lower levels of college football has rendered this measure useless for lower-division QBs, though the skill is still important).  Third: the adult height of the quarterback.  We know that all other college stats are system/situation dependent enough to not have any predictive value between a college quarterback and that same players in the pros.  But we also know that a player’s stats are largely useless in a limited sample which is why three and four year college starters are so much more valuable in the draft today than one or two year starters.

And that’s the big thing with Tom Brady.  He was a great statistical quarterback at Michigan, but because his career lasted only 25 starts, it was easy to write his production off as a function of his team’s dominance, and his physical skill set as alluded to in his scouting report, only served to reinforce the idea that any player could have accomplished what Brady did at Michigan over his timeframe.  It wasn’t a certainty that he was going to get drafted in 2000, though it was pretty likely.

What sticks out about the Brady scouting report was that he was labeled as a system quarterback by the scout, a label that has pretty much held up as true in the pros.  Brady has become a system quarterback, the first elite spread quarterback in the NFL in the way that Joe Montana became the first elite west coast quarterback in the NFL.  Guys who are viewed as system passers, such as Colt McCoy or Kevin Kolb, almost universally do not get picked in the first round.  I needed more context on this, so I looked up the scouting report of a guy who has had a very similar career to Brady in the same NFL era, but didn’t fall to the sixth round.

Drew Brees
By: Dave-Te’ Thomas

#15-DREW BREES Purdue University Boilermakers 5:11.7-221

ANALYSIS
Positives… Touch passer with the ability to read and diagnose defensive coverages…Confident leader who knows how to take command in the huddle…Very tough and mobile moving around in the pocket…Has a quick setup and is very effective throwing on the move…Throws across his body with great consistency…Hits receivers in stride and improvises his throws in order to make a completion…Puts good zip behind the short and mid-range passes…Shows good judgement and keen field vision…Has a take-charge attitude and is very cool under pressure…Hits receivers in motion with impressive velocity…Has superb pocket presence and uses all of his offensive weapons in order to move the chains…Has solid body mechanics and quickness moving away from center… Elusive scrambler with the body control to avoid the rush.

Negatives… Plays in the spread offense, taking the bulk of his snaps from the shotgun… Tends to side-arm his passes going deep…Lacks accuracy and touch on his long throws… Seems more comfortable in the short/intermediate passing attack…Does not possess the ideal height you look for in a pro passer, though his ability to scan the field helps him compensate in this area…Will improvise and run when the passing lanes are clogged, but tends to run through defenders rather than trying to avoid them to prevent unnecessary punishment.

CAREER NOTES
The unquestioned leader of the Boilermakers’ offense and one of the school’s most decorated athletes…The three-year starter shattered virtually every school passing record and also made his marks on the Big Ten Conference and NCAA Division 1-A record charts…Ranks fourth in NCAA annals with 1525 pass attempts, 942 completions and 11,815 yards in total offense (NCAA does not recognize bowl stats)…Including post-season action, he holds the Boilermaker and conference career-records with 1026 pass completions of 1678 passes for 11,792 yards, 90 touchdown tosses and 12,692 yards in total offense…His pass completion percentage of .611 set another Purdue all-time record… Only player in Big Ten Conference history to throw for over 500 yards in a game twice in a career…Threw for over 400 yards seven times, over 300 yards sixteen times and over 200 yards twenty-seven times during his career…Tied Wisconsin tailback Ron Dayne’s (1996-99) Big Ten Conference record by earning Player of the Week honors eight times during his career.

Drew Brees is kind of sort of a system quarterback, though in a far different way than Brady.  Brees’ accuracy numbers are all about the precision on his passes and fitting the ball into tight spaces.  Brady’s accuracy numbers are about being ahead of the defense from a mental standpoint and quicker than the defense with his arm.  The reason that Brees was selected in the second round was that he did a ton of passing in his four years of college.  As you read above, his size and durability were a concern, and like Brady, scouts weren’t convinced he could be an effective vertical passer coming out of college.  The difference between Brees and Brady was that college senior Drew Brees threw the football in the intermediate zone and to the sideline in a way that made scouts very confident that he could translate to the pro game given a top rushing attack (which he had in SD), by making the difficult out throws that NFL quarterbacks need to.  I feel that Brady’s combine performance may have given some credence to the thought that he could not make those throws to the edge of the football field.  Otherwise though, these were eerily similar prospects coming out who have enjoyed very similar careers, except that Tom Brady got overlooked on Draft day, and Brees was the second quarterback in 2001 taken after Michael Vick.

A first round pick in today’s game must be perceived as durable coming out of college.  Joe Flacco was perceived as durable.  Sam Bradford, despite a shoulder injury, was perceived as durable.  Blaine Gabbert: durable.  Matt Ryan: durable.  JaMarcus Russell: durable.  Brady Quinn: durable.  Even Matthew Stafford was perceived to be durable coming out of Georgia.  Neither Brady nor Brees seemed like they would hold up to the NFL rush, and Brady’s frame was of particular concern.  Of course, Michael Vick went first overall in 2001 as an anomaly because no one could have possibly felt he was durable.  If we expand the scope past quarterbacks, Reggie Bush may have lost out on being the first overall pick because of durability concerns at the next level.

So we can conclude that as a system QB project who had durability and arm strength concerns, Brady would not have gone in the first round in any year.  There were too many questions about him as a prospect.  The second round is possible.  Brady had a lot of Drew Brees’ qualities, and a lot of Kevin Kolb’s qualities as well.

Strengths:
Kolb has good size and build for a NFL quarterback and excels at throwing short to mid-range passes. He can throw the ball on the move and is a threat to run with the ball if necessary. Kolb is a great leader and has started for four years at Houston. He would be an ideal West Coast quarterback once he learned the system.

Weaknesses:
Kolb did not play in a pro style offense at Houston and would have to learn the NFL style of progression and reads. He is unlikely to become an elite vertical passer. He must work on improving his mechanics, as he has a tendency to wind up too much. Kolb has as tendency to go to a three quarters delivery that causes the ball to get batted down at the line of scrimmage.

Overall:
Kolb was productive at Houston, but that was in a shotgun based, short throwing offense. He would have to take the time to learn the pro style offense, and his lack of arm strength will limit his ceiling. The question on Kolb will be if his success was due to the system or if he can mature into a solid NFL starter.

System concerns.  Vertical passing concerns.  No height concerns and no durability concerns listed for Kolb, who was definitely not as well regarded as Brees coming out (for Brees the spread system was perceived as more of a fact, re: learning curve; for Kolb, it meant he was off a lot of teams boards).  Kolb was more highly regarded than Tom Brady coming out of Houston in 2007 (which ended up being a weak QB class), and I think the reasoning for that is sound.  Brady, all these years later, would not go at the top of the second round either.

A good comparable for Brady in terms of historical significance is Joe Montana, and he was drafted 82nd overall in 1979, which was pretty high for a quarterback.  The scouts in that draft loved Jack Thompson and Phil Simms, which made 79 a really strong draft for quarterbacks at the time even before you consider Montana.  In today’s game, Montana wouldn’t have fallen past where Jimmy Clausen was drafted by the Panthers out of the same school in 2010.  But then again, Montana was an accomplished college player who simply had arm-strength/system limitation.  In hindsight, Brady had the same deal: accuracy over arm, but was overshadowed at his college program where Montana achieved legend status.  Brady was more like Wisconsin’ Scott Tolzien should Tolzien have enjoyed a more competitive performance against TCU in the Rose Bowl, which probably cost him the right to be drafted.

System guys like Michigan-era Brady get drafted if they play in enough big games in their college careers, which Brady did.  Strangely, that’s probably not what got him drafted in 2000.  Brady’s intelligence made him a perfect candidate for the system that Bill Belichick was trying to install in New England.  But because of the success of that system and the proliferation of Belichick’s assistants throughout the league, players with Brady’s skills are more valued today.  Brady’s draft profile would have been more valuable than, to throw a name out there, either Colt McCoy or Mike Kafka in 2010.

We now have a range where Michigan’s Tom Brady would have been drafted in the 2011 draft.  He would have gone higher than Joe Montana went in 1979, because players who were more maligned by NFL draftniks and front offices alike slipped further than that.

I went back to the list of statistical comparables, and I see names like John Beck, Jimmy Clausen, Drew Stanton nearby in completion percentage.  This year, the closest comparables were Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, and TJ Yates unadjusted for era, and Tolzien and Greg McElroy when compared to the time-weighted average.  Brady would have been one of the more sought after system quarterbacks this year, though he probably wouldn’t have caused the Dalton-mania symptoms the Bengals exhibited on draft day.  I think he would have gone higher than the average year in 2011, but speaking about 2011 more abstractly, I think Brady would have been the fourth QB drafted in 2009, I think he would have been the third or fourth QB taken in 2010, and he probably wouldn’t have been in the first five taken in 2011, though that would have been the one year Brady might actually have gone in the first round.

Tom Brady, a decade later, would likely not have been a sixth round pick.  Brady likely would have been perceived similar to this years former Michigan QB, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett.   Brady may not have been seen as the player with the most upside, but he wouldn’t have fallen due to character concerns.  If Tom Brady had not been drafted in 2000, but had been drafted in 2011 or 2012 instead, front offices would have rated the Michigan product as a mid second round pick to an early third round pick, and a system quarterback prospect who could thrive in a system that takes advantage of his limited skill set.

Like, for example, the New England Patriots.

As clear as it was last week that both late round picks and recent undrafted free agents form the core of contending NFC teams, such as the Packers, we’ll look at a couple of the dynasties that dominate the AFC and examine the role of the cost-free acquisition on building a consistent winner…and challenging the consistently dominant teams in the AFC.

Undrafted Free Agents: Evidence from the AFC

An asterisk denotes a player who is no longer cheap because he is on his second (or third) contract, but was acquired via the means discussed in this article.

AFC South

Best undrafted players: WR Jason Hill (waivers from SF), FB Vonta Leach (expiring contract), G Mike Brisiel, S Bernard Pollard (waivers from KC), FB Ahmard Hall, DT Tony Brown*, C Jeff Saturday*, LB Gary Brackett*, CB Jacob Lacey

Best late round draft picks: QB David Garrard*, RB Rashad Jennings, TE Zach Miller, OL Uche Nwaneri*, DE Austen Lane, WR Kevin Walter* (signed as RFA from Cincinnati), TE Owen Daniels*, TE Joel Dreessen (by NYJ), CB Glover Quin, RB Javon Ringer, TE Bo Scaife* (expiring contract), C Eugene Amano*, G Leroy Harris, CB Cortland Finnegan*, CB Alterraun Verner, WR Austin Collie, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, OT Ryan Diem*, LB Clint Session, LB Kavell Conner, CB Justin Tryon (by Washington), S Antoine Bethea*

Analysis: The Jaguars are an excellent example of a team that hardly ever uses cost-free competition for its draft picks, as both the offense and the defense are littered with second and third rounders everywhere.  Sometimes, the draft works well right from the first season (Maurice Jones-Drew), sometimes you get a huge return a few years down the road (David Garrard, Marcedes Lewis, Daryl Smith).  Sometimes, you draft a really good player, but he signs a big contract and with no competition, he loses effectiveness entirely and is still in the starting lineup because “he’s all you’ve got” (Rashean Mathis).  And then sometimes you draft a total bust (Reggie Nelson), and four years later you don’t have any starter at the position.  If the Jags were better with UDFAs than they have been, they would have won multiple AFC South’s over the last few years, but their roster has always had an underachiever problem, even when it was young.

The Texans don’t have a lot to show for it, but there are elements of intelligent design in their offense.  FB Vonta Leach was a cost-free pickup from Green Bay in the middle of the 2006 season, Gary Kubiak’s first year, and he’s served an entire contract length with the Texans.

The Colts are the opposite of the Jags: they find undrafted free agent contributors every season, and more than just that, they aren’t afraid to play them.

Overall the AFC South appears to be the one division that has had far more success in the late rounds of the NFL draft against undrafted free agent signings.  But the Colts, who use both, often have the strongest and deepest roster of the entire group.

AFC North

Best Undrafted Players: WR/KR Josh Cribbs*, TE Evan Moore, DE Matt Roth (waivers from Miami), LB Chris Gocong (S. Brown trade throw-in from Philadelphia), RB Cedric Benson* (cost-free UFA), RB Brian Leonard (contract swap w/St. Louis), WR Quan Cosby, G Nate Livings, C Kyle Cook, RB Isaac Redman, LB James Harrison*, DL Kelly Gregg* (signed to BAL practice squad in 2000), LB Jameel McClain

Best late round draft picks: RB Peyton Hillis (by Denver), FB Lawrence Vickers, DT Ahtyba Rubin, RB Bernard Scott, DT Domata Peko, OT Willie Colon, DE Aaron Smith*, DE Brett Keisel*, CB Ike Taylor* (contract expiring), FB Le’Ron McClain, OT Jared Gaither, LB Jarret Johnson*,

Analysis: One of the more loaded NFL divisions now that the Browns have decided to join the party.  And there a significant undrafted flavor in this division, although not so much recently, so if you’re looking for the decline of the Steelers and Ravens soon, you can look at the inefficiency in the cost structure of their (still very loaded) respective rosters.  Look at the Steelers for example.  You have two pro bowl 3-4 ends who were developmental draft picks.  They are now being paid like starters.  Also being paid like starters are their future replacements, first round picks Ziggy Hood (2009) and Cam Heyward (2011).  Casey Hampton is a nose tackle entering his mid-thirties on an expensive contract he signed in 2010.  Longtime backup Chris Hoke is an unrestricted free agent, and highly undervalued.  Then at the linebacker level, James Harrison is still elite, but in the middle of a mega deal.  Lamarr Woodley has the franchise tag, and figures to sign a mega deal to offer Pittsburgh cap relief (whenever there is a cap again).  Where does that leave Lawrence Timmons, an elite interior linebacker in the last year of his rookie contract?  Pittsburgh will likely resign him too, but likely will have to release Aaron Smith to free up that salary.  They got a discount on Ryan Clark (thanks, rest of the NFL), but can’t afford depth behind him and Polamalu.  And Ike Taylor is probably walking because the Steelers feel can win without him.  If you look at the cost structure of the Steelers, you can maybe see the business reason for dealing Santonio Holmes when they did: they couldn’t have afforded him anyway.  That’s a terrible cost structure, and we just covered the defense.  The Ravens aren’t a lot better, except that they haven’t tied 100 million up in a quarterback yet.

This is a good division for UDFAs, and no franchise is an obvious leader in terms of efficiency.  The teams that have the most talent are also paying the most to keep their talent.  That means the Browns and Bengals will have every chance to rise as the Steelers and Ravens age, but must continue to add talent to play a meaningful role in the future.

AFC East

Best undrafted free agents: RB Fred Jackson, WR Davone Bess*, WR Brian Hartline, LB Cameron Wake, RB BenJarvus Green Ellis, RB Danny Woodhead, DE Mike Wright*, G Brandon Moore*, DE Mike DeVito

Best late round draft picks: WR Stevie Johnson, OT Demetrius Bell, DT Kyle Williams*, CB Terrence McGee*, NT Paul Soliai, S Yeremiah Bell*, TE Aaron Hernandez, C Dan Koppen*, LB Rob Ninkovich (by New Orleans), WR Jericho Cotchery*, WR Brad Smith (expired contract), G Matt Slauson

Analysis: Few teams have been able to extract more value out of undrafted free agents than have the Miami Dolphins, who built most of their receiving corps from college UDFAs, and went to the CFL to find Cameron Wake, one of the NFL’s most terrifying pass rushers.  One of the teams that may have the Dolphins bested, unsurprisingly, is the New England Patriots if only because they can turn BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead into household names, and people are so generally unimpressed that the number one surprise about the Patriots’ undrafted free agent tactics is who they will find this year.  The Pats have not been nearly as successful at receiver as they have been at running back in finding cost-free, winning options.  As far as cost structure goes, it’s still the Dolphins world in the AFC East.  Of course, that was before they brought Brandon Marshall on board.  We will see where he takes them.

The Bills have little to speak of.  Kyle Williams is on a team friendly deal: he earned his extension through 2012, and he’s due even more money from someone when that deal runs out.  Fantasy owners know all about the Bills one undrafted contributor, RB Fred Jackson.  His undrafted contributions are limited by the fact that he is almost 30 years old, and that the Bills have spent two first round picks on RBs since he’s been on the team.  WR Stevie Johnson was a big time draft steal, but that’s all the Bills have done in the late rounds to date.

The Jets have always done a good job finding cheap players to plug their holes, although they have long preferred (even prior to Eric Mangini) the veteran free agent route to going with undrafted players and developing them.

AFC West

Best undrafted free agents: G Brian Waters*, G Ryan Lilja (waivers from Indianapolis), DE Wallace Gilberry, LB Jovan Belcher, FB Marcell Reese, DT Tommy Kelly*, CB Chris Johnson*, RB Mike Tolbert, WR Malcolm Floyd (expiring contract), TE Antonio Gates*, G Kris Dielman*, NT Antonio Garay (waivers from Chicago), LB Antwaan Applewhite

Best late round draft picks: OT Barry Richardson, CB Brandon Carr, WR Louis Murphy, WR Jacoby Ford, WR Chaz Schilens, DE Trevor Scott, S Tyvon Branch, DE Elvis Dumerville*, CB Perrish Cox, RB Darren Sproles, FB Jacob Hester, NT Cam Thomas, DE Jacques Cesaire*, LB Shaun Phillips*

Analysis: Really, the only place in which Scott Pioli has outperformed the Patriots since he took over in Kansas City is in terms of undrafted free agents, on the backs of which the Chiefs have successfully rebuilt their defense.  But if we’re giving credit to the Chiefs for rebuilding their defense on the cheap, what do you say about the Raiders, who have given Jason Campbell more weapons than he ever had in Washington and they spent: a 7th rounder in 2008, 4th rounder in 2009, a 4th rounder in 2010, and now in Denarius Moore works out, a 6th rounder in 2011.  If only their mid round picks spent on protecting Campbell could work out as well.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders are vastly outpacing the Denver Broncos in undrafted free agent contribution.  In fact, Denver does not have an undrafted, cost-effective player who is in the starting lineup right now.

The San Diego Chargers are the gold standard for this exercise.  No team in the last decade has done a better job finding talent from all sources, particularly those sources which do not cost the Chargers might to take a look see.  Tolbert, Floyd, and Gates could start for nearly any team in the league, and have helped to keep the Chargers near the top of the league leaderboards.  Kris Dielman has long been the leader on the Chargers OL.  Did you know he too was undrafted?  He was.  What about young Antwaan Appelwhite?  He was undrafted as well.

And the Chargers deserve credit for how they attack the late rounds of the NFL Draft as well.  Jacques Cesaire has been a contributer on the DL of the Chargers since they’ve been playing a 3-4.  Stephen Cooper, Brandon Siler, and Kevin Burnett make this LB corps a strength.  And this team is still loaded with plenty of prospects.

The Chargers have had some difficult drafts since 2009.  They haven’t gotten a lot of return on their picks in the first two rounds, notably LB Larry English, RB Ryan Mathews, and LB Donald Butler didn’t play last year.  But this team is still a good pick, annually, to reach the super bowl, and it’s because of excellent roster construction on the cheap.  No team has been better at building resource-free than the San Diego Chargers, a great bet to be the team of the 2010′s.

NFL teams are built though the NFL Draft.  This is a truth that we hold self evident.  It’s also misleading.

The more-accurate truth is that the successful teams are built through the scrap heap in some way or form.  The 2010 Packers, an almost completely homegrown team, are the anomaly.  But even the SB champion packers wouldn’t have made it as far as they did without something that I will refer to here as an “unexpected” contribution from fourth year CB Tramon Williams and rookie CB Sam Shields, both of whom combined to help Charles Woodson extend the effective portion of his career at cornerback.  Williams and Shields have something else in common: both went undrafted by NFL teams in their respective draft years.

It is impossible to compete in the current NFL environment without the ability to find a number of “cost-free” players who can provide competition for — or in many cases, outright win a job from — a recent draft pick.  The nature of the draft does not allow for risk-free selections.  Even the wisest drafting teams will still have to make a choice at some point in the draft between a player they believe in based on their own evaluations, and a consensus “best available” player who they could not have done their due diligence on.  Sometimes, the best player available in the draft is not a player who fits perfectly in the scheme, but if a team doesn’t step outside its comfort zone to draft the best players, it’s hurting itself in the long run.

Which is one of the many reasons why finding a supply of UDFA talent is so critical, especially in the salary cap era.  You’ll find that after round 3 of the NFL draft, the players who end up being the very best professionals typically slip through the cracks of the third day of the NFL draft.  Why is this?

To answer that question, I compared the value of the best UDFA starters in a given division against the value of the best late round draft picks in a given division to see which teams are optimizing undrafted free agents against late round draft picks. Only players on their rookie contracts are being considered in this case study.  Then, I will discuss the effects of this lockout on NFL teams and undrafted players alike.

Players marked with an asterisk (*) are players who have received contract extensions from their teams, but are listed here because they would still be under team control in absence of a contract extension.

NFC South

Best undrafted players: RB Legarette Blount, FB Earnest Graham, OT Donald Penn, OT James Lee, G Ted Larsen, RB Pierre Thomas, RB Chris Ivory, WR Lance Moore (contact expired), LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, DT Remi Ayodele, G Harvey Dahl (expired contract), T Tyson Clabo (expired contract), CB Brent Grimes

Best late round draft picks: WR Mike Williams, LB Geno Hayes, S Tanard Jackson, CB E.J. Biggers, WR Marques Colston, G Jahri Evans*, G Carl Nicks, T Jermon Bushrod, DE Kroy Biermann, DE Charles Johnson, CB Captain Munnerlyn, WR David Gettis

Analysis: Perhaps one of the best examples of the UDFA phenomenon is the waste of resources between the Falcons and their defensive tackle situation.  GM Thomas Dimitroff extended DT Jonathon Babineaux in his first year on the job prior to Babineaux becoming a free agent.  The next year, the team drafted Peria Jerry to play next to him.  Jerry missed all of 2009 with an injury, and then in 2010, the Falcons spent a third round pick on Corey Peters, who beat out the recovering Jerry as a rookie.  That’s a lot of money and draft selections invested to make a position a relative strength…and ultimately, the Falcons ranked 12th, below the league average,  in 2010 defensive DVOA, although they were above average in run defense.

You could argue that the best three players on the list above are on the late round draft picks list: Mike Williams, Marques Colston, and Jahri Evans are all on the NFL Top 100 list.  But Donald Penn would be on a list of the top 200 players (top 15% of NFL players), as well as Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo, and it’s fascinating how the competitive teams in this division built mauling, man blocking OLs without using high draft picks (the Saints used lower round picks, while the Falcons and Bucs are almost entirely undrafted at the key positions), versus where the Panthers spent their resources: two first round tackles, a second round center, and two first round running backs.

That’s not to rip on the Carolina running game, which is very effective in and of itself, but have you seen it’s passing game?  Ignoring the pass protection units for a second, you have a second round QB throwing to a pair of third round receivers (of course, one of those is Steve Smith) and a 6th round rookie, David Gettis, who was the most effective receiver in the rotation last year.  The Panthers have almost no impact undrafted free agents who are still cheap, and it’s costing them.  Matt Moore still might be the best QB on that roster, but he’s buried beneath the hope of Jimmy Clausen and Cam Newton, and was dreadful last year anyhow.

Beyond Moore, the closest thing the Panthers have enjoyed to a UDFA success is OT Garry Williams, who started 11 games at RT for Jeff Otah last year in a lost season.  This is why it could be a while before the Panthers compete again.  On the bright side, the Panthers have done pretty well in the 7th round all things considered the last few years (G Mackenzy Bernadeau, G Geoff Schwartz, CB Captain Munnerlyn).

NFC North

Best Undrafted Players: DE Israel Idonije, S Husain Abdullah, CB Sam Shields, CB Tramon Williams, DE Cullen Jenkins (expiring contract), DL Johnny Jolly, RB Ryan Grant*, LB Frank Zombo

Best late round draft picks: DT Matt Toeaina (by Cincinnati), CB Zack Bowman, OT J’Marcus Webb, WR Johnnie Knox, DT Sammie Lee Hill, C John Sullivan, DE Ray Edwards (expiring contract), RB James Starks, G Josh Sitton, TE Andrew Quarless, DE C.J. Wilson

Analysis: The Detroit Lions may deserve a lot of credit for what they’ve done since firing Matt Millen in 2008, but there’s an underlying reason that a playoff berth in 2011 is unlikely, and it’s a reason that has little to do with Matt Stafford.  The Lions have done an excellent job on the waiver wire, essentially picking up a first round pick when they snatched Alphonso Smith off waivers from the Broncos after Denver gave up on him after a year.  What the Lions haven’t done is found any late round or undrafted help for their team.  That 2010 draft class is looking very top heavy a year later and the 2011 class was top-heavy (three picks in top two rounds, just two picks after that).  Where are the undrafted players to supplement what Detroit has been doing in the top rounds?  They will have to leverage waiver priority again in 2011 to build the depth to contend.

The Vikings are in trouble for a different reason which is that they spent a lot of money on free agents to build their core instead of finding cheap UDFAs to do the same jobs.  Wash. St. S Husain Abdullah is the lone exception for HC Leslie Frasier, who oversaw Abdullah beating out 2008 second rounder Tyrell Johnson for the starting safety position in 2010.

The Packers on the other hand, are now set to dominate this division for the next ten years, and they’ve done it with a fair share of draft busts.  It will be interesting to see what the young Lions become, but right now now it looks like they will be the equivalent of Jim Schwartz’ 2003-08 Titans to the 2003-08 Tony Dungy Colts (the Packers).  It comes as no surprise that almost all of the successful UDFAs from this division are Green Bay Packers, though I certainly expected to see the Lions and Bears with a larger presence in that category.

NFC East

Best undrafted free agents: RB Keiland Williams, WR/KR Brandon Banks, OT Stephon Heyer, WR Anthony Armstrong, LB Lorenzo Alexander, LB Chris Wilson, S Quintin Mikell* (expiring contract), DT Antonio Dixon, QB Tony Romo*, WR Miles Austin*, DE Stephen Bowen (expiring contract), G Phil Costa

Best late round draft picks: RB Ryan Torain (by Denver), LB HB Blades, S, Reed Doughty, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, TE Kevin Boss, DT Barry Cofield (expiring contract), LB Jon Goff, LB Zak Deossie, FB Owen Schmitt (by Seattle), WR Jason Avant, OL Todd Herremans, OL King Dunlap, LB Moise Fokou, RB Tashard Choice, RB Marion Barber, OT Doug Free, NT Jay Ratliff*, CB Orlando Scandrick, S Alan Ball

Analysis: I figured for sure that the Redskins would come up behind the Giants and Eagles in terms of undrafted free agent contribution, but in hindsight, that probably wasn’t the guess that best fit the evidence.  The Redskins were incredible at finding UDFA contributors to fit Gregg Williams defense from 2004-07, and then did a great job last year at finding cost free contributors on offense under Mike Shanahan.  The Vinny Cerrato/Jim Zorn years were a lost period in terms of adding cost free talent, as the only starting caliber players adding during that period of Redskins history were TE Fred Davis (second round pick), G Will Montgomery (7th round pick of the Panthers), WR Anthony Armstrong (UDFA, who didn’t get a shot to play until Shanahan came in), LB Brian Orakpo (1st round pick), CB Kevin Barnes (3rd round pick), CB DeAngelo Hall (cost-free pickup who was immediately paid like a top five CB), and some guy named Haynesworth (Unrestricted FA; Brinks truck).  So yeah, in two years as GM, Vinny Cerrato acquired just seven players capable of making the 2010 roster, and guaranteed more than $55 million to two of them.  But between the 2007 season and the 2010 season alone, the Redskins have still acquired more key UDFAs than other NFC East teams.

But the whaa?  It’s the Cowboys who have dominated the NFC East in finding undrafted free agent talent (led, most notably, by Tony Romo and Miles Austin), and have done just as well as the Giants in finding talent to contibute in the late rounds.  The knock on the Cowboys, who have typically made great roster construction decisions, is that the 2009 draft is now a completely lost year.  Two players from that draft are still with the Cowboys: LB Victor Butler, and K David Buehler.  That was the year of the Roy Williams trade with Detroit, and now that it’s 2011, its officially time to see who won that trade: the Cowboys and Lions figure to be direct competitors for the NFC Wild Card, and play each other early in the season.

NFC West

Best undrafted free agents: WR Danny Amendola, TE Daniel Fells (expiring contract), DT Gary Gibson, S Craig Dahl, LB David Hawthorne

Best late round draft picks: WR Brandon Gibson (by Philadelphia), DT Clifton Ryan, LB David Vobora, RB Justin Forsett, WR Ben Obomanu*, G Mike Gibson (by Philadelphia), RB Tim Hightower, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, WR Steve Breaston, WR Andre Roberts, QB Troy Smith (by Baltimore), WR Josh Morgan, LB Parys Haralson*, CB Tarell Brown, S Dashon Goldson

Analysis: You can file WR Mike Williams under a cost-free pickup as well for the Seattle Seahawks, as both the Seahawks and the Rams fought each other with waiver pickups and the like for the 2010 NFC West crown, won by Pete Caroll’s experience over Steve Spagnuolo’s tactical expertise.

Meanwhile, you can see just as easily why the 49ers and Cardinals are struggling with such talent deficiency.  Both teams are drafting pretty well, but both have almost no cost free contribution anywhere on their roster.  And both teams are doing pretty well in the late rounds of the draft.  Better possibly, than division winner Seattle.  But cost free free agents are the engine of the NFL today, and San Francisco and Arizona trail well behind in finding good players and getting them to sign and excel in their systems.  Not coincidentally, they also trail in the standings year after year.

This post was inspired when I looked back at the Chiefs and Patriots drafts since Scott Pioli took over the Kansas City franchise, and wondered who had the best classes of players in their pre-free agency years.

Of those years studied, there have been three NFL draft classes that led directly to teams winning super bowls.  For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there was no clear draft class that lead to their super bowl title in 2005 or 2008, though certainly, the 2007 Steelers’ draft nearly made this top ten list.  We’ll discuss them, and classes like them, at the bottom of this article.

10) 2005 Green Bay Packers The hardest thing about picking a list of the best draft classes since 2005 was deciding which Packers class to include.  Green Bay just won the super bowl with a team that was almost entirely home grown.  And the lynchpin class came in six years ago when the Packers took Aaron Rodgers in the first round and Nick Collins in the second round.  The truth is, this class hasn’t really withstood the test of time.  The Packers spent a first round pick on Terrence Murphy in this draft, and he washed out almost immediately.  But Brady Poppinga and Mike Montgomery turned into good, solid contributing veterans.  Truth is though, without Rodgers on offense and Collins on defense, the Packers prove unable to win the super bowl.  That is what makes this class one of the great ones of the last decade.

9) 2006 Houston Texans This is the draft that earned Charlie Casserly a spot on national television as a draft expert.  Casserly always stuck to his guns in his drafts, though rarely did his classes sparkle in the way that this one did.  In the first three rounds, the Texans landed DE (now LB) Mario Williams, LB Demeco Ryans, and OT Eric Winston.  You could make the argument that those are the three of the five best players on the Texans.  Their first pick on the second day was TE Owen Daniels.  Casserly’s draft didn’t end there, picking up the team’s third receiver, David Anderson, in the seventh round.  This class should have put the Texans deep in the playoffs annually, but unfortunately, it was drafted for use by Gary Kubiak, and the Texans have yet to make the NFL postseason.

8. 2005 New England Patriots Recent Patriots history has been muddled with some really ugly drafts, but the draft that built the young backbone of the historic 2007 season was New England’s 2005 draft.  The team’s left guard, Logan Mankins, was widely considered a reach in the first round of this draft, but is now one of the league’s top guards.  Second round pick Ellis Hobbs may be on the verge of an early retirement, but had three good years for the Patriots including the 2007 season before being dealt to the Philadelphia Eagles and starting on that team for two seasons.  Nick Kazcur is often maligned as the weakness of the Patriots line, but was the team’s starting offensive tackle on a super bowl contender from 2006-2009.  Then there was safety James Sanders, a starter on the 2007 team, and a fourth round pick in 2005.  The cherry on top of that class was seventh round quarterback, Matt Cassel, who won 11 games with the Patriots in 2008 and was dealt to Kansas City in 2009 along with LB Mike Vrabel for a second round pick.

7) 2005 Dallas Cowboys Hard to remember now because the team did nothing in the playoffs, but the 2007 NFC version of the Patriots were the Dallas Cowboys, and they were built on the strength of this draft, which may have been the best draft ever for pass rushers.  Players in this draft class for the Cowboys have combined for 137.5 sacks.  That is not a small number.  It is a very big number.  80 of those sacks belong to 12th overall pick DeMarcus Ware.  25 more of those belong to Ware’s partner in crime, Jay Ratiff, picked seven rounds later.  In between Ware and Ratliff, the Cowboys took: DE Marcus Spears, DE Chris Canty, and LB Kevin Burnett, who combined for the other 32.5 career sacks.  I can’t forget that this class also produced the Cowboys’ leading rusher in 2007, 2008, and 2009: Marion Barber.

6) 2007 New York Giants Jerry Reese’ first draft class as GM of the New York Giants remains his best, and it’s Reese’s work with this class that provided the engine for the Giants’ super bowl run in that same season.  Ironically, the class was headlined by a guy who has become a bust, CB Aaron Ross.  It was actually the class’ depth that helped lead the Giants to the super bowl in 2007.  The starting tight end for that run, and Eli Manning’s favorite target, was a rookie TE by the name of Kevin Boss, a fifth round pick in that class.  One of the most effective DTs in the super bowl that year was a rookie DT by the name of Jay Alford, a third round pick out of Penn State.  The most effective possession receiver in the NFC East was the Giants’ second round pick that year, WR Steve Smith from USC.  Zak DeOssie is a pro bowl special teamer who has combined long-snapping acumen with coverage skills to be an important part of this class.  And in the seventh round, the Giants picked up a pair of guys who won games in the playoffs: S Michael Johnson from Arizona, and RB Ahmad Bradshaw from Marshall, possibly the best player from this class.

As a group these guys never held up to the test of time, but by delivering a title in their first season, and with the entire class contributing, the Giants locked up a spot in the best draft classes of the last decade.

5) 2010 Oakland Raiders Though the 2010 Raiders haven’t actually accomplished anything as a draft class, the depth and talent in that class are well on their way to becoming household names.  Rolando McClain.  Lamarr Houston. Jared Veldheer.  Jacoby Ford.  We’re talking about four of the top, oh, 100 players in the NFL over the next decade.  All in one class by the Oakland Raiders.  But this class also goes beyond that towards players who will now have a shot to step into roles vacated by Raiders on expiring contracts: Bruce Campbell, Walter McFadden, Travis Goethel, Jeremy Ware, or Stevie Brown.  The entire 9 man class could contribute at some point for the Raiders, and any playoff push the Raiders make in the future will happen on the strength of this class.

4) 2006 New Orleans Saints The Saints drafted Reggie Bush with the second overall pick in 2006, and then they won two division titles in four years with him.  But Bush wasn’t the biggest piece of this class for the Saints.  7th round pick Marques Colston from Hofstra has had the biggest impact on the Saints through five seasons as a Saint.  But aside from brand name impact and receiving impact, the very best player in the 2006 Saints draft class was their fourth round pick, two time all-pro G Jahri Evans.  S Roman Harper became a starter under the pressure schemes of DC Gregg Williams.  Finally, DE Rob Ninkovich didn’t make the Saints, but has become an important part of the Patriots defensive unit, adding to the talent picked by the Saints in this class.

3) 2005 San Diego Chargers The best NFL draft class of the last ten seasons was the 2004 San Diego Chargers.  Eli Manning traded for Philip Rivers. Igor Olshansky, Nick Hardwick, Nate Kaeding, Shaun Phillips, Dave Ball, Michael Turner.  All in one class.  But because the title of this article is the best draft classes since 2005, it’s still remarkable that the Chargers next class ranks in the top three since 2005.  They had extra picks thanks to the Manning/Rivers trade, and promptly used the first pick on Shawne Merriman, who was one of the best players in football three years into his career.  The Chargers continued building on their defensive front with Luis Castillo, still a very large part of their defense today.  But beyond what they did with the defense, it’s the rest of the class that really ignited the Chargers.  In the second and fourth rounds, the Chargers drafted WR Vincent Jackson, and RB Darren Sproles respectively, the main players in the Chargers offensive arsenal between 2008 and 2010.  Jackson and Sproles will be two of the top targets on this year’s free agent market, whenever it does open.

2) 2010 New England Patriots This class may not look as strong in a year as it does right now.  Or, it could look like the strongest class in the last twenty years at this time next season.  Devin McCourty had a rare rookie year at corner, and it wouldn’t be that shocking to see a regression from him, but he also could be on a path straight to the hall of fame.  The second round, with TE Rob Gronkowski, LB Jermaine Cunningham, and LB Brandon Spikes, has a chance to be legendary.  TE Aaron Hernandez, a fourth round pick, looks to be the steal of the draft.  The Patriots went off script to grab a punter, and Zolton Mesko was one of the league’s best as a rookie.  This is the best draft class Bill Belichick ever had as coach/president of the Patriots, and it’s just one reason to feel that the second half of Tom Brady’s career could be as good as the first half.

1) 2008 Kansas City Chiefs The best draft class since 2005 began at the top, with President Carl Peterson and Head Coach Herm Edwards calling the shots.  In the first 35 picks, the Chiefs had selected LSU DL Glenn Dorsey, Virginia OT Branden Albert, and Virginia Tech CB Brandon Flowers.  That would have been a great foundation on which a perennial playoff contender could have built.  It was then, in the third round, that the Chiefs drafted the best player in this draft class, if not the entire 2008 draft: RB Jamaal Charles.  Jamaal Charles won the NFL rushing title in 2010, leading the Chiefs to the playoffs.  By the way, in the fifth and sixth round of this draft, the Chiefs drafted (respectively) a second CB, Brandon Carr, who is arguably with Flowers amongst the top 15 CBs in football today, and the current starting RT of the Kansas City Chiefs, Barry Richardson.  The strength and depth of those six players makes the Chiefs’ 2008 NFL Draft class the strongest class since the year 2005.

NFL Draft Classes Honorable Mention (2005-11)

In no specific order, some draft classes I had to mention as I looked back on how teams did between 2005-2011:

2005 St. Louis Rams The Rams didn’t get a whole lot out of this draft class, but the rest of the NFL did: Alex Barron was a bust, but CB Ron Bartell, FS O.J. Atogwe, and G Richie Incognito were all in this class as well.  In the later rounds: Reggie Hodges is now Cleveland’s punter, Ryan Fitzpatrick is now Buffalo’s starting quarterback, and Madison Hedgecock is one of the best FBs in the league for the Giants.  The only thing those last six players all have in common is that they were all drafted by the Rams in 2005.

2009-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Bucs have done a better job drafting over the last three years than any other team.  Their 09 and 2010 drafts just missed the cut for this list, and their 2011 draft probably would have been the first one on from this season.  Since Mark Dominik has become their general manager, the Bucs have completely rebuilt their passing offense (Josh Freeman, Arrelious Benn, Sammie Stroughter, and Mike Williams have been paired with Kellen Winslow, who cost Dominik a second round pick), repaired a young offensive line that flashed greatness in the 2007 playoff season, and drafted every member of their four man defensive line with the lone exception of Stylez G. White (and his replacement, Da’Quan Bowers, is in the fold as well).

2007 Minnesota Vikings If Adrian Peterson was a dominant Oklahoma quarterback instead of a running back, this would probably be the draft that delivered the Vikings a super bowl championship in 2010.  Instead it’s Aaron Rodgers who lifted the trophy, but that doesn’t mean that this Brad Childress draft was any less excellent.  Sidney Rice in the second round is a cold steal these days, and if the lasting legacy of Brett Favre as Vikings QB is that he threw to and developed Sidney Rice, then he was almost worth the trouble he caused.  Also in this draft for the Vikings: DE Brian Robison and QB Tyler Thigpen.

2008 Baltimore Ravens/Atlanta Falcons/Miami Dolphins  All three of these teams drafted effective quarterbacks in 2008.  Matt Ryan has been the most effective of the three today, while Joe Flacco and Chad Henne have been about equally effective.  No doubt thought that Flacco has had much more margin for error on the Ravens than Henne received with the Dolphins.  I think it’s far from decided that Matt Ryan is going to be the best of this group, as he has to raise his periphrial stats to match his late game heroics.  With Julio Jones in the fold, we’ll see if that helps or hinders Ryan.

The Falcons 2008 draft looked a lot better a year ago than it does now.  Ryan looks every bit the no. 3 pick, but it’s not certain that Sam Baker is the long term solution at LT.  Harry Douglas went from slot receiver project to injury prone to not an NFL quality receiver in two years.  Thomas Decoud, Kroy Biermann, and Curtis Lofton look like major players in the Falcons defense going forward.  Chevis Jackson has busted.  Right now, this looks like a pretty standard “team finds a franchise QB draft”.  You could argue that this is still at least as strong as the Green Bay 05 draft, but I’d say there’s a pretty big chasm between Rodgers and Ryan right now.

The Ravens may feature a stronger 2008 draft: Flacco, Ray Rice, Tom Zbikowski, Tavares Gooden, and Haruki Nakamura.  I would definately take the Falcons trio of defenders over Baltimore’s from this draft (1 starter), but Ray Rice and Flacco might prove to be a better offensive duo than Matt Ryan alone.

Meanwhile, 2008 was the one really good draft that Bill Parcells had with the Dolphins, the jury is still out on Henne, but Kendall Langford was a steal and Jake Long has already obtained pro-bowler status amongst offensive linemen.  Guard Donald Thomas has made his way into the starting lineup and Jalen Parmele and Lex Hilliard are both still very relevant backs in the NFL.  On the other hand, Phillip Merling looks the part of a bust.  The Falcons still probably had the best 2008 draft of the three, but it’s very close and if Matt Ryan loses his stranglehold as the no. 1 QB from this abnormally strong class, the Falcons will likely cease to have the best draft of the three teams with first year head coaches.

2009 Detroit Lions  The 2009 Lions are very close to making the top ten drafts list with this still-strong effort from 2009: Pettigrew, Delmas, Levy, Sammie Lee Hill, Follett, Dan Gronkowski, but the passing duo of Matthew Stafford and Derrick Williams needs to play up to it’s draft status for this class to crack the top ten.

2009 Jacksonville Jaguars Really good class for Jacksonville here, and I would argue that those predicting great things for Lions the next couple of years not lose sight of a Jacksonville team that has done just as well in the draft the last few years.  Monroe and Britton at tackle, Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton is playing like a no. 1 DT, and the team still believes in Derrick Cox at corner.  Mike Thomas is now the no. 1 receiver on this team.  In the last rounds: Zach Miller, Rashad Jennings, Tiquan Underwood, all still contributors on the Jags offense of the here and now.  Of all the honorable mention classes, this one has the best chance of supplanting at least the 2005 Packers, if not others, on the top ten list someday.

The fact that there is no obvious Colts draft to put here.  The Colts have had really good drafts, and I thought for sure their 2010 draft would take the cake (I also really like their 2011 draft).  But the Colts have averaged, almost perfectly I might add, two top contributors a year, and have been unable to find a third starter.  In 2009, getting Jerraud Powers and Austin Collie in the third and fourth round looks great, two elite NFL performers in the mid-rounds, but in the first two rounds they took Donald Brown and Fili Moala.  Jamie Thomas is…sort of a starter on the OL, but only out of necessity.  In 2008, the Colts drafted Jacob Tamme early and Pierre Garcon late, but in between, they added Phillip Wheeler and Mike Hart.  No solid third starter there.  Clint Session is the best player they took in 2007, and they got him late, but early on they took Anthony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh, both who have offered only tantalizing careers to date.  In 2006, the Colts got Joseph Addai early and Antoine Bethea late, but only Tim Jennings and Charlie Johnson in between.  Only Kelvin Hayden from the 2005 draft is still with the team.

The Indianapolis Colts have drafted well every year, but never well enough to have a great class.  As it should be, with the Colts.

2006 Denver Broncos Widely hailed as Mike Shanahan’s best draft with the Broncos, it delivered the goods in terms of headline names, but those assets have declined once Shanahan moved on in his career.  It’s hard to know what to make of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall these days as they are fairly disappointing players on their second teams.  Tony Scheffler is a great receiving TE who has the misfortune of being cast as the no. 2 guy on the hometown Lions.  Chris Kuper is still a valuable starter.  Elvis Dumerville looks like the best player in the class, but is coming off an injury, and the uncertainty around him makes this a top 15, but not top 10 class in the last 6 drafts.

2007 Pittsburgh Steelers I had this class in the top ten until the very end, because more than any other of the Steelers drafts, it put the pieces in place for the 2008 championship run.  Six of the players drafted in this class are still with NFL teams, though Ryan McBean is fighting off competition in the Broncos 3-4 front, and likely won’t make John Fox’s defense.  And Daniel Sepulveda, while great at his craft and all, is a punter still.  But the other four: Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Matt Speath, and William Gay, all played major roles on the 2008 championship run.  Maybe not an elite draft class, but still one of the better ones in the last six years, and can be linked directly to a super bowl title.

2008, 2010 Arizona Cardinals Two of the four most recent drafts for the Cardinals under Ken Whisenhunt have been incredibly good, but the one I liked most of the four right after draft day has been a complete washout.  According to process points, I feel like the Cards did everything right, but they still ended up with Beanie Wells and Cody Brown with their first two selections in 2009.  Brown is already out of the Cards organization, and the Ryan Williams pick can’t be seen as anything but dissatisfaction with Beanie Wells after two years.   I mean, they don’t exactly have complementary skill sets.  Quietly though, that bust of a 2009 draft is bookended by a Rodgers-Cromartie, Calais Campbell, Early Doucet, Tim Hightower, Brandon Keith 2008 draft on one end, and a Dan Williams, Daryl Washington, Andre Roberts, O’Brien Schofield, John Skelton, Jorrick Calvin draft on the other.  Add in Patrick Peterson and Williams in 2011, and the Cards have had three great drafts since 2008, which is something that not many teams at all can claim.

2006-2008 Carolina Panthers The total run of the process points system began in 2009 (it actually debuted in 2008 when I wrote for MVN, but those records are available only by way of RSS feed, so I dont have them).  And no team has done less with more in the last three years of drafts than the Carolina Panthers.  The Bears have done less with less than the Panthers and the Chargers have suffered a similar decline in draft day results.  But the Panthers haven’t enjoyed a good draft day in many years.

This is notable because from 2006 to 2008, perhaps no team drafted as well as the Carolina Panthers.  Their 2006 class was headlined by DeAngelo Williams, Richard Marshall, James Anderson, and Rashad Butler, the first three starters on the Panthers, and Butler who as developed into one of the league’s best offensive linemen (he is now with the Texans).  They may have done better in 2007 with LB Jon Beason, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, and TE Dante Rosario around the bust pick of WR Dwayne Jarrett.  2008 featured two first round selections: RB Jonathon Stewart and OT Jeff Otah, three defensive starters in Charles Godfrey, Nick Hayden, and Dan Connor, and also a couple of offensive prospects in Gary Barnidge at TE, and Geoff Schwartz on the OL with Mackenzie Bernadeau as well.  Any of those Panther classes could arguably crack the top ten of the last six NFL drafts.

It got progressively worse from there.  The Panthers now have a little bit of talent left over from those drafts that is near contractual expiration, and not much from the three most recent draft.