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The cream of the NL Central division could prove to be the team best suited to win the playoffs this year.  There’s a problem though: like the 2010 Giants, the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers are better built to win in short series with frontline pitching rather than win over an entire season with strong defense and hitting.  The runs will be there, but the defense could keep the Brewers from the NL Central title, and it’s unlikely that the perpetually weak NL Central can send two teams to the playoffs.

1) Milwaukee Brewers (projected finish: 90-72)

In a year where the Brewers absolutely have what it takes to win it all, there is also considerable opportunity for disappointment.  Despite pitchers Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf, the Brewers still figure to give up a lot of runs to opposing hitters.  They are weak defensively right up the middle, from catcher all the way into the outfield, and neither Ryan Braun or Corey Hart is going to cover enough ground in the outfield to make up for the flyball tendencies of that pitching staff.  That means a lot of extra base hits, and don’t even get me started about Yuni Betancourt at SS.

Fortunately for the Brewers, this appears to be a down year in a down division.  The offseason favorite Cardinals lost their best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, for the season, and Albert Pujols may be in a bit of decline, if only because no one ever had the run Pujols did between 2003-09.  For the most improved team in the division, the time is now to strike whilst the iron is hot.  The Brewers must be aware of baseball’s recent history: three years ago the Detroit Tigers traded most of their upper farm system to the Florida Marlins for 1B Miguel Cabrera and LHP Dontrelle Willis, and were the trendy pick to win it all in the offseason.  They lost their first eight games of the season, and didn’t reach the .500 mark until July.

Zack Greinke is out maybe until May Day with a fractured rib, a non-baseball related injury.  The Brewers will need the big sticks of Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Hart, and Braun to get them through a tough first month, and hope to not take on any more injuries.  As easily as the lack of depth on the Brewers could derail the team’s playoff hopes before they get started, their frontline ability offers plenty of potential playoff heroes.  If and when the Brewers get into the playoffs, the Phillies could meet their match at Miller Park in October.

2) St. Louis Cardinals (projected finish: 83-79)

Between the inability to reach a contract extension with Albert Pujols, and the loss of Wainright, it’s easy to say that no team had as rough a spring as did the St. Louis Cardinals, at least in terms of outcomes.  This projection would tie the fourth worst finish by the Cards since Tony LaRussa became their manager before the 1996 season.  The more the team loses, inevitably the more likely it becomes that Pujols and the Cardinals cannot agree on a deal and they part ways after the season.  Potentially, 2011 could be the end of the Cardinals as we recognize them.

Before we all collectively plan their funeral, if/when the Brewers stumble out of the gate, no team in the Central is better positioned to take the title than the Cardinals are.  Even with all the Pujols silliness that is bound to occur in the near-term future, the Cardinals have the strongest organizational infrastructure in the NL Central.  Though they don’t have the youth of the Reds, quantity of stars of the Brewers, or the financial resources of the Cubs, they always post one of the league’s best pitching staffs.  That’s something that should happen again this season, even without their best pitcher.

The Cardinals should be able to make up for the weakened rotation by getting quality innings out of their bullpen.  The rotation, however, should once again feature five pitchers at or below the 4.00 ERA line.  Led by the injury-prone Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals should win more than they lose in 2010 thanks to the middle of the order power of Pujols and Matt Holliday, and an increased reliance on the young bat of Colby Rasmus.  This team isn’t young, won’t be particularly healthy, and is over-reliant on Pujols, but all those things are relatively minor flaws by the standards of a major league baseball club.  At least in the short term, they should be fine.  After the season though, we’ll see if the Cardinals can stave off disaster with the odds stacked against them.

3) Cincinnati Reds (projected finish: 81-81)

Manager Dusty Baker was handed a team full of young prospects and odd pickups such as Scott Rolen and was tasked with the need to lead the Reds to the postseason in 2010, which is exactly what they did.  With all that young talent, Baker’s job could lie in his ability to lead the young team to take the next step.  My projection shows that another 162 games is a long time to try to hold off the savvy Cardinals, and this could be a down year for Baker and the Reds with the Brewers primed to make their move.

1B Joey Votto and RF Jay Bruce have become true middle of the order threats behind 2B Brandon Phillips in the Cincinnati lineup.  The Reds will look to challenge the Brewers to lead the NL Central in runs scored this year, a race that likely needs to be won in order to win the division this season.

The question, as it always is with Baker-led teams, is with the pitching staff.  Johnny Cueto is already being rationed with shoulder inflamation and Edison Volquez delivers the ball particularly violently at risk for serious arm injury.  Homer Bailey may not be the pitcher the Reds thought he was.  The big question from camp is what will come of left-handed flamethrower and Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.  The Reds invested a ton of money in Chapman, and for the second straight year, he will come out of the bullpen.  The 2011 Reds may not be tied to him, but money spent on Chapman is money the Reds can’t use on Bruce or Votto, so this window of opportunity could be a two or three year deal.

4) Chicago Cubs (projected finish: 78-84)

The Cubs just endured a second straight disaster year under jettisoned manager Lou Pinella, replaced by Mike Quade.  The 2009 season came mostly as a surprise, but the Cubs 2010 season was derailed as much as anything by Pinella running out of ideas for his team really, really early in May.  The improvement under Quade was mostly — but not entirely a mirage — the Cubs are a bit better than they played in 2010.

Still, this won’t be a contending team because its one with one too many bad contracts.  Alphonso Soriano is still a productive hitter for now, but that’s a disaster contract with Kosuke Fukudome and his $12 million in the same outfield.  No one really knows what to expect from Aramis Ramirez at third base, except that he buys top prospect Josh Vitters another year to mature as a baseball player and professional.  The Cubs just dumped another bad contract, releasing P Carlos Silva who himself was acquired from Seattle in exchange for a bad contract belonging to OF/DH Milton Bradley.  And $10 million is a lot of money for Carlos Pena for a year, especially if the former Ray falls short of 30 HRs playing home games at hitter friendly Wrigley Field.  A Derrek Lee extension during a down season might have been a wiser investment.

It’s hard to see great upside in the 2011 Cubs, but they look a lot better on paper than their reputation as underachievers might suggest.  2012 will be a crucial year in the franchise calendar for the Cubs, but a 2nd place finish in 2011 would be a great finish under Quade in his first full season on the job.

5) Houston Astros (projected finish: 68-94)

The Astros somehow find themselves in worse position as a franchise every single year dating back to their World Series appearance in 2005, but have never lost more than 89 games in a season.  They’ll avoid 100 losses again this year because of spare talent on the major league roster, but they won’t avoid 90 losses this time.

Catcher Jason Castro could miss the season with a knee that required surgery.  Carlos Lee now enjoys an albatross contract, although his .246/.291/.417 line probably doesn’t spell the end for El Caballo, because Lee’s HRs/BBs/Ks were at normal rates last season.  Lee hit .300 5 out of 6 years prior to 2010 for four different organizations, so his batting average is bound to rise again, though perhaps not back to quite that level, and that will drag his on base percentage and slugging percentages with it.  He’s a good bet for another .800 OPS season this year.

If the Astros surprise (again) it will be on the pitching end of things where Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez are coming off of strong years, and young Bud Norris is posting excellent rate stats between trips to the disabled list.  That front three can take the Astros a lot of places if the offense can score for them.  Unfortunately, it’s unclear where the runs will come from.  If Lee remains the team’s biggest offensive threat, the Astros are in trouble in 2011.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates (projected finish: 60-102)

It’s hard to say if the Pirates are improving any as an organization because it’s taken so long for them to shed dead weight.  They do have a premier second baseman in Neil Walker, and a trio of potentially great prospects at third base in Pedro Alvarez (.256/.326/.461 in 2010) and in left field with Jose Tabata (.299/.346/.400 in 2010) and in center field with Andrew McCutchen (.286/.365/.449 in 2010).

The pitching staff is still very much under-staffed, which reminds us that the Pirates are still very far away from contention.  The Pirates butcher the ball on defense, which doesn’t make the jobs of the pitchers any easier.  Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald are the best of the bunch right now, and neither is about to gather more victories than losses in their starts this year.

The Pirates are conceivably two years away, making all the right moves, with the lineup leading the way for the pitching staff, having a strong farm system, and some fortunate player acquisition opportunities.  It’s closer than the Pirates have been in a while, but likely not enough to avoid 100 losses in 2011.

The NL West, top to bottom, is probably baseball’s most interesting division.  You have the defending world champion Giants trying to make it back to the top of the division, a division where the second place team is unlikely to make the postseason.  Even the Diamondbacks could out-do their projections and compete in a winnable division.

1) Los Angeles Dodgers (projected finish: 88-74)

If the Dodgers make the playoffs this year, they may do so as the weakest of any of the eight playoff teams.  They spent the 2010 trying to find ways to produce offense; any sort of offense.  This year, things may only be a little bit better for them, but in the power-sapped NL West, the Dodgers should easily outscore the Giants and the Padres this season, finishing somewhere around the middle of the pack in terms of runs scored amongst NL West teams.

The biggest improvement could be on the pitching end, where a Clayton Kershaw-Chad Billingsley led rotation leads a massive improvement in runs against.  The Padres and the Giants last year were able to outpace the Dodgers on the preventative side because they both committed to defense and the Dodgers did not.  The Dodgers still really haven’t improved their defense, but their rotations should pick up a lot of the slack, and move them towards the top of the league in preventing runs.

Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney will lead an offense that lost it’s catcher, Russell Martin, to the Yankees after they non-tendered him following a dreadful offensive season in 2010.  LA is going to be competitive because it’s young talent from many seasons ago is finally matured, and while there doesn’t appear to be a lot left behind in terms of a farm system — a system that has largely been gutted by some feeble attempts to compete in past years — the Dodgers and Rockies are neck and neck in terms of ‘win now’ ability.

2) Colorado Rockies (projected finish: 87-75)

This projection for the Colorado Rockies has them coming up just one game short of the NL West title, and one game short of the wild card berth, held by the Atlanta Braves.  The Rockies, led by an improved defense, will remain around the top of the division as long as they continue to win a hair under two thirds of their home games.  They compete in a tight division, one they are no doubt good enough to win.

As always the Rockies struggle to have enough quality pitching to compete.  Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de la Rosa are back, and Aaron Cook could rebound, but the staff’s former injury-prone leader, Jeff Francis, is a Royal now.  The year of the pitcher skipped this team, as Coors Field (following a few years as a neutral run environment thanks to a humidor for the baseballs) has gone back to being a hitter’s paradise.  That makes Jimenez’ 2.88 ERA all the more impressive (161 ERA+).  He’s not exactly Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The declining ability of Todd Helton should be less of a factor this year for the Rocks then it was as it crippled them last year.  He will make the team because he’s on the payroll.  But the team has acquired Ty Wigginton to take some of the first base duties away, and will let Eric Young Jr. and prospect Jonathon Herrera compete at second base for the open position.

3) San Francisco Giants (projected finish: 83-79)

The Giants won only 92 games a year ago, which isn’t at all out of character for a world series champion.  But it’s not dominant, and it’s largely out of character for a team like that to sustain it’s success.  The Giants have little to worry about on the pitching end with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez, and Brian Wilson coming out of the pen, but the hitting, while improved in the playoffs, just doesn’t seem sustainable.

If you were to tell a Giants fan that Pablo Sandoval would have had the year he did, but the team would win the world series anyway, the most important question would have been, “how?”  Defensively, the Giants may have been one of the better teams, ever.  This team will play the aging Miguel Tejada at shortstop.  To be fair, the Giants employed Juan Uribe and Edgar Rentaria in the position last year, so it’s not a huge downgrade to Tejada (if one at all).  But is Aubrey Huff going to carry the offense again?  If not, the Giants will need more pop out of Sandoval’s bat.

Buster Posey is the team’s best position player, and perhaps the best catcher in the NL already, but the Giants are left hoping from offense from last year’s waiver pickups: OFs Pat Burrell and Cody Ross.  Chances are, the defense will regress towards the mean, and the rotation will stay strong while the bullpen blows a few more close games and the offense reverts back to the rut it has been in since the middle of the last decade.

4) San Diego Padres (projected finish: 76-86)

The Padres ran with the Giants all season long because as good as the Giants defense was, the Padres were maybe just a little bit smoother with the gloves.  And if the Padres happen to once again feature the best bullpen in baseball — like they did in 2010 — they will finish above .500 for the second straight year.

With that said, it becomes a little tougher to compete losing ones best player, and the Padres lost Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox in an offseason trade.

Looking at the Padres roster, they are very deep, and rather veteran (as opposed to young and improving).  The real improvement is happening down on the farm.  It’s important for the future for the Padres rotation to continue pitching at a high level and preventing runs, because if the Padres — who play at pitcher friendly PetCo Park — find that they can’t stop the bleeding on the run prevention side, they may be one of the worst teams in baseball this year.  Luckily, they have continued to commit themselves to defense, so another 80 win season is well within their reach.

5) Arizona Diamondbacks (projected finish: 71-91)

The D-Backs’ roster is a mess, but not in the talentless sense.  It’s a mess in the sense of that they don’t know exactly where (if anywhere) the production is going to come from.  Middling pitching prospects are widely interspersed with failed reclamation projects and veterans.

The hitters are going to do their job, yet again, this season.  With Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Xavier Nady in the outfield, they can generate runs with the bats.  The problem will be the infield.  2B Kelly Johnson is coming off a fantastic season, but that performance was highly unexpected.  Stephen Drew is a very talented shortstop.  But this team may be too weak at the corners to compete immediately.

Unlike the Dodgers, the team decided to tear down and rebuild before they wrecked the farm system, so things should only get better from here.  The problem is that players like Upton, Young, and Drew have a window of opportunity before they become very expensive to retain, and the Diamondbacks could next find themselves sellers on their top young talent instead of just their vets with old player skills.  As alluded to above, the D-Backs can run with the leaders in this division because they won’t necessarily need to get to 90 wins to stay in it to the middle of September.  But this is the first spring in a long time that the Arizona baseball club has lacked the talent that it’s NL West competitors have.  And a teardown of the (remaining) internal structure of the major league roster is more likely that a team that immediately contends with Drew, Johnson, Upton, and Young at it’s core, and little help from it’s pitching.

The AL’s truncated division rounds out our preview of the American League.  I have the guard officially changing in the AL West after the Texas Rangers got all the way to the world series in 2010, but that doesn’t mean it will be a cakewalk.

1) Texas Rangers (projected finish: 91-71)

For an encore after 2010, I am picking the Rangers to finish 20 games above .500 and to win the AL West.  It won’t be a comfortable margin.  The 91 wins would be one game additional to their 2010 record, and they’d be doing it without their most significant loss, Cliff Lee.  Probability might actually suggest that the Rangers, who added Adrian Beltre in the offseason, would be better off than this, but there is a small adjustment in this prediction for a slow start with the unsettled pitching staff.

The offense is led by the duo of Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton in the outfield, and even considering the effect of the home ballpark on offensive totals, they are in the running to be the highest scoring offense in the AL.  While it’s easy to say now, this lineup would be even more dangerous with Justin Smoak in it.  Smoak was dealt away for Cliff Lee last year.  Lee will bring pair of first round draft picks back at least due to the MLBs compensation system, but the Rangers are ready to win right now.

The rotation, at least right away, will be lead by C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Naftali Feliz.  Naftali Feliz?  The Rangers are trying to stretch him out in an attempt to replace Cliff Lee in the rotation.  This means that: the back of the Rangers rotation is absolutely wide open, and could be a limitation on their ability to compete.  As poor as manager Ron Washington’s bullpen management was in the world series, the Rangers do have a bevy of arms to turn to to make it a strength over an entire season.

This team is still better prepared to compete in the short series format than the regular season, and it won’t take much in terms of underachievement to put the Rangers on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

2) Oakland Athletics (projected record: 88-74)

Another thing you probably didn’t realize about last season in the MLB: the A’s finished with 81 wins, second in the AL West, and tied with the Tigers for the 8th best finish in the AL.  Yes, the playoff-contending Detroit Tigers won just as many games as the A’s did last year.  This year the A’s take the next step.

The bar for making the playoffs in the AL, according to the projections right here, is going to be 91 wins.  At an expectation of 88 wins, the A’s may come up just short, but what they have going for them is that they have two ways of getting in if they can add help at the deadline: the AL Wild Card and AL West title look to be about equally obtainable this year.

They’ll have to get over 88 wins to do it, but with a strong season by Brett Anderson (above), or either David DeJesus or Chris Carter, and the A’s will have enough offense to support a pitching staff that just doesn’t get enough credit for being one of the youngest, and best, in the majors.

3) Los Angeles Angels (projected finish: 74-88)

The Angels have a good shot to be better than last year when they won just 80 games.  Adding Vernon Wells makes them a little better, though not by as much as you would think if you just plugged Wells’ 2010 numbers into centerfield for the Angels.  They had a comparable offensive threat in Mike Napoli who they couldn’t get a great number of at bats for, and his strong bat is who Wells will replace.

Kendry(s) Morales will be healthy this upcoming year, meaning the Angels get their best hitter back, and Alberto Callaspo should be much better as a full time second and third baseman than he was last season.  The Angels should again feature an above average lineup, although they are counting on sustained production from an aging right fielder, Torii Hunter.

The pitching staff might let them down.  Dan Haren can still get it done in this league, but his results the last two years have been closer to a middle of rotation pitcher than a top guy.  Jered Weaver is the team’s ace, and Ervin Santana is a nice no. 3.  I don’t know what the Angels are planning to do if Scott Kazmir flames out again, they simply lack the farm depth to not get drilled two out of every five games unless Kazmir can return to form.  And I think that deficiency will take them out of the running before long.

4) Seattle Mariners (projected finish: 65-97)

For the Mariners, it wouldn’t appear that a significant regression to the mean is coming for their league-worst MLB offense (impressive, for an AL team that doesn’t have to hit its pitcher).  Some improvement should come from guys like Chone Figgins.  But an aging Ichiro was already a pretty good hitter on a horrible team last year, and marginal decreases in his on-base ability might wash out regression from Figgins.

The onus will be on guys like Milton Bradley and Justin Smoak to pull the Mariners out of an offensive tailspin.  If they can, they actually have a pretty good shot at getting into the divisional race.  Credit Felix Hernandez, now unquestionably the best pitcher in the American League.

The Mariners are going to be able to prevent runs this year, but without quality pitching depth, most of that prevention will be full-season effects of playing 81 games at SafeCo Field.  This is a good defensive team, so it’s not time to cut every player on the “everyday starter” side, but they still only have 2/3 of an outfield with Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro, and the infield offers zero pop, and nowhere is that problem worse than at catcher.

The Angels are a far more talented team, but if the Mariners can do the small things much better than last season, and King Felix has another great season, the Mariners can make a push towards everyone else in the AL West this season.

The NL East is the most improved division in baseball from last year.  The Phillies have risen from the level of top level NL team to one of baseball’s super powers.  The Braves are better.  The Marlins are better.  The Mets probably aren’t better, but they have better team leadership.  And the Nationals- well, did you see how far Bryce Harper just hit that pitch?

1) Philadelphia Phillies (projected finish: 98-64)

The Phillies can only be so much better than they were last year.  After all, they had the NL’s best record.  And while this year’s version of the fightin’ Phils is not quite as good as the Red Sox, they certainly have the inside track as baseball’s second best team, at least in March.

We’ll start with the criminally underrated second baseman Chase Utley, who has a case of patellar tendonitis that has the team worried about possible DL time.  It’s a big deal, as the quickest way to de-rail the Phillies could be through injury.  Also, Utley is such a good player that he deserves mention at the top of an article about the Phillies.

With that out of the way, it’s time to compare the Phillies rotation to all the all-time bests.  There is no rotation in history that has four aces in it.  Before we accuse the Phils of treading in uncharted waters, they really only have a pair of aces in Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.  That’s still really good.  It’s also not like we’ve never seen two of the best pitchers in baseball on the same roster before.  Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson won a world series with the Diamondbacks.  Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez managed to pitch on a losing Mariners team last year.  Heck, the Brewers have a pair of aces THIS year in Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo.

What makes the Phillies special is the perception that Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels would be at the top of other rotations elsewhere.  And that’s where I think observers are grading the Phillies too high on the Heat Index.  Having two number twos to go with your dueling aces seems nice, but while theres a long history of teams with two aces going deep into the playoffs, typically rotations like the Phillies end up underachieving expectations.  The worst case scenario for the Phillies is that Cliff Lee goes from two years as perhaps the most dominant pitcher in baseball to an erratic, inconsistent pitcher heading into his mid-thirties.  If that were to occur, Roy Halladay would not, by himself, be able to lead an aging lineup deep into the playoffs.

Still, this is a low risk team, at least in 2011 (perhaps not beyond).  The Phillies will be back in the playoffs this year, then we’ll see.

2) Atlanta Braves (projected finish: 88-74)

The Braves will look to replicate the success they started last year, but its key to remember that the was no team comparable to the Phillies of the present back when the Braves were winning 15 consecutive division titles in the 90′s and 2000′s.

For the Braves, the key is having lineup production consistent to last year to give plenty of run support to their young, developing pitching staff.  Last year, the Braves produced the runs, but what they did not do was play defense.  Had the Padres edged out the Braves for the NL wild card, the top four teams in defensive efficiency would have represented the NL in the playoffs.  In reality, the Padres shouldn’t have been competitive with the Braves for nearly ass long as they were.  Atlanta finished a league average .687 in defensive efficiency (percentage of balls in play that become outs).  They’ll look to improve that figure in 2011.  Unfortunately, they’ll try to do so with a 40 year old Chipper Jones, Martin Prado in left field, and Dan Uggla playing second base.  It’s not going to be easy, mind you.

In a bunch of ways, this will be a transitional year for the Braves, hence a couple of wins off the overall record from last year.  But the overall direction of the franchise is pointing upward, and most of the team’s contributors are rather young, and the farm system, per usual, is quite strong.  The Braves are transitioning for a day where the Phillies are old and can be had.  And right now, either they or the Cardinals or Reds look like the best bet for the NL Wild Card again, which is a good place to be in a transitional year.

3) Florida Marlins (projected finish: 85-77)

The Marlins are likely to come up just short of the playoffs, and perhaps holding onto Dan Uggla for another year might have been the difference.  But I’ve recently bought into the idea that this team is quite good, led by Mike Stanton in the outfield, John Buck at catcher, Gaby Sanchez at first base, and Hanley Ramirez at shortstop

The pitching staff is young as well, and perhaps just not as far along as the Braves, but this team is going to be able to score runs with the best teams in the NL.  I like the Marlins lineup more than, for example, the Brewers lineup, and the Brewers find their way to the top of the AL in run scoring each season.

What’s hurting the Marlins at this point is that the Miguel Cabrera trade with the Tigers simply hasn’t yielded very much in return, while Cabrera looks like the most dangerous hitter in the AL.  Andrew Miller looks like a washout.  Cameron Maybin is yet to hit at a major league level.  Burke Badenhop is a non-descript middle reliever with 53 appearances in 2010 (good by the standards of this trade).  That’s everything that’s still with the Marlins organization.  The trade looked even at the time, so we shouldn’t crush the Marlins for it, but that’s a weak outcome to the trade of a star player.

If the pitching takes great strides the Marlins can possibly jump the Braves into second place this year.  But likely, they’ll finish in a close third, and come up short of the playoffs.

4) New York Mets (projected finish: 80-82)

While the Mets still offer plenty of star potential for the 2011 season, I don’t really believe in their stars anymore.  David Wright is better than you think he is, which is to say, you should look at his numbers.  He’s the best player on this Mets team.  Carlos Beltran will probably never play a full season again, and I don’t see him enjoying a Jim Edmonds-type end of career.  Jose Reyes is done, in my estimation as an elite player, but he can last as an all-star level player because he plays shortstop.  He’s a .700-.750 OPS guy from here on out.  Jason Bay is going to end up being a dreadful signing because the home ballpark (Citi Field) is going to keep him in the yard often.

But Angel Pagan was a shrewed pickup by former GM Omar Minaya, and while Ike Davis may be due for a regression, he repesents the hope of the future for Mets fans.

The Mets have a pretty good rotation led, still, by Johan Santana and featuring knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, but the home ballpark makes Dickey and fellow starter Mike Pelfrey look better than they are.  The Mets are still a year away, but they can look to build around this pitching/fielding strength, and have already made the right decision to switch Carlos Beltran to RF and put Pagan in CF.  Though I question how exactly playing RF is going to “protect” Beltran’s knees, its still a wise move.  We’ll see if the Mets can get back into contention in the next couple of seasons.

5) Washington Nationals (projected finish: 72-90)

The Nats picked a really good time to be dreadful, we’ll put it that way, and I’ll also say they are my early pick to surprise next season (2012).  Stephen Strasburg looks like the best pitcher in baseball, when healthy.  He will stay sidelined thanks to Tommy John surgery for at least the first four months of the season, and should be all over the headlines next year, when Washington matters.  And if OF Bryce Harper really is the chosen one, he might end up breaking camp with the Nationals at the age of 20.

The Nationals have both of those guys because they were horrible in 2008 and 2009.  They were much better last year, only a little because of Strasburg.  Those two lead a farm system that’s getting stronger by the month.

The Nationals also are closer to a .500 team at the ML level than to a disaster.  They are the worst team in the NL East, for sure, but they would be competitive in the other two NL divisions.  Without Strasburg at the front of their rotation, pitching is a concern.  So is the lineup, which lost it’s second and third best hitters; Adam Dunn to free agency (ChiSox), and Josh Willingham to a trade (A’s).  The Willingham trade bolsters the front of the bullpen with the addition of Henry Rodriguez.  The Nats are, however, strong up the middle and have excellent depth at catcher.  They’ll need more power out of the corner outfield spots and first base before they can compete, but that’s Harper’s role and as long as they can acquire that power to coincide with Strasburg’s return, the Nats could get pretty good at the end of this season.  Once they are already out of it.

The AL East remains baseball’s best division.  Will we have a different winner in it than the Rays?  That’s the prediction being made here, though Rays fans aren’t going to be too disappointed in these projections.

1) Boston Red Sox (projected finish: 103-59)

The Boston Red Sox are the best team in baseball, at least, as of March 8.  Sure, they grabbed headlines with their offseason acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez (as well as being priced out of the Adrian Beltre sweepstakes).  But the Red Sox also had a pretty good season last year (by their own lofty standards), where missing the playoffs because of great seasons by the Rays and Yankees obscures that the Red Sox are one of the three or four best teams in baseball.

The team is strongest at the level of its position players.  Crawford and Gonzalez are both excellent defensive players and top of the order threats, and same for Kevin Youkilis who will be stretched a bit as a third baseman this year.  The second basemen, Dustin Pedroia, long has been strong on the defensive end, and is another middle of the order threat with the bad.  Departed catcher Victor Martinez didn’t fit in with the building plan of the Red Sox, so the weaknesses are all up the middle: C, SS, CF.  Crawford’s defensive value will be a little limited by the dimensions of Fenway park, and he possibly would have brought more value elsewhere, but for the Red Sox, it is a big deal that they, and not the Yankees, got Carl Crawford.

The pitching staff is likely to be improved as well with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett up front and Clay Buchholz/John Lackey behind them, and then Daniel Bard and Jonathon Papelbon at the back of the bullpen.  If Papelbon continues to struggle, the Red Sox could be interested in Royals closer Joakim Soria at the deadline.

2) Tampa Bay Rays (projected finish: 91-71)

The Rays replaced premium, prime-career talent that they could not afford with aging former stars Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.  They also traded away starting pitcher Matt Garza to the Cubs for prospects.  But to expect them to decline by more than 50 runs in run differential from 2010 vastly understates how deep of an organization the Tampa Bay Rays are.  Put simply, they might not be able to compete with Boston’s strength this year, but if they can get some development out of their young pitching staff, the Rays compare favorably with the Yankees.

The pitching rotation has to remain strong because the Rays are going to struggle to score runs on par with the Yankees or Red Sox.  They did okay last year, breaking 800 runs in a light offensive year, but they could find their lineup in the middle of the pack this year, even with Evan Longoria hitting in the middle of that lineup.

Rookie Jeremy Hellickson will join veterans David Price and James Shields to give the Rays a rotation that will be dangerous in a short playoff series, and the Rays have plenty of depth in the organization to find a quality fourth and fifth player to round out the rotation.  Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis hold those spots right now.

The Rays will have to figure out their bullpen if they want to hold off the Yankees, because the Yankees STILL have Mariano Rivera, and with him comes the peace of mind that the pen can only be so bad.  The Rays, though, have to worry about their bullpen keeping the team out of the playoffs, which should give manager Joe Maddon a funny feeling in his stomach late in games in the month of April.

3) New York Yankees (projected finish: 90-72)

The Yankees know that they have problems in their rotation, and they also know that they will eventually have to trade for a front line pitcher, and seem willing to use top prospect Jesus Montero in a deal to get that pitching help.  Montero will bring what will keep the Yankees competitive.  But for The Empire, its the the first time in a decade and a half that they will be reliant on someone coming available to keep them competitive.

In all honesty, CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett is just a fine top of the rotation, but theres a reason why Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia are all in camp as non-roster invitees.  The Yankees are desperate.

However, thanks to a highly productive, even more lavishly paid lineup, New York should be able to outscore most teams they play.  There’s not much to say or that needs to be said about the age of Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, because the bats that will carry the team are Robinson Cano, Mark Teixiera, and Alex Rodriguez.  They are as good as any teams’ top three.  But in the meat grinder that is the AL East, that likely won’t be enough in this division, and come playoff time, the Yankees could be on the outside looking in for the second time in four years.  90 wins seems like a good projection for the Yankees this year (a 5 win decline from last year with the Red Sox improving).  But because I don’t have the Rays falling off the map, it’s not good enough for the Yankees to get back to the postseason.

4) Baltimore Orioles (projected finish: 75-87)

I’m not really a buyer in either the Orioles or the Blue Jays this year, but I think that where the Blue Jays are tearing down to build towards something better than they had last year, the Orioles seem like they are going to try to ride the improvement from last year into this year.  Which isn’t to suggest the Orioles are doomed compared to the Blue Jays, but that the Orioles have more right now (and less on the farm) than the Jays.

What they do have coming up from the minor leagues is a lot of ML ready pitching talent that could facilitate a push towards the top of the AL East.  But that’s a best case scenario.  Realistically, their hitting should rebound over a full season from last year, though the real keys to the season is that the Orioles see CF Adam Jones and C Matt Wieters into the players they thought they had in them.  If Jones and Wieters don’t hit this year, the Orioles won’t meet this projection and they won’t have much to look forward to in 2011 either.  It’s a pivotal year for them, moreso than it is for the Blue Jays.

5) Toronto Blue Jays (projected finish: 73-89)

The Blue Jays actually won 85 games last year, which you probably didn’t realize unless you were a fan.  A lot of that production was unsustainable.  The Marlins signed all-star catcher John Buck away from them.  They extended home run leader Jose Bautista because they couldn’t trade him.  They will now hope for a fraction of last year’s production.  They dealt pitcher Shaun Marcum to the Brewers for Brett Lawrie, a prospect without a position.

The pitching staff still has a lot of interesting names in it.  Brandon Morrow is a strikeout leader on the club, but walks too many batters to be an ace.  Kyle Drabek, acquired from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade, will try to win a rotation spot in camp.  Dustin McGowan will try to hold onto his spot.  Ricky Romero might be the “best”, most established pitcher, and could start on opening day.  Marc Rzepczynski throws left handed, which is something he has going for him.

There’s still a lot of power in the Blue Jays lineup, but it would surprise no one if they lead the majors in strikeouts, wresting that title from the Diamondbacks.  Jays games, in general, will tend to feature a lot of whiffs.  That might actually be a good thing for the organization, because it means the pitching is developing, and the hitting can hold its power value even with high K totals.  It’s really the only chance they have this year.

LiveBall’s Previews of the 2011 MLB Season begins right in it’s own backyard with a look at the American League’s most tightly packed division, a worst to first description of all the contenders.  And, yes, the Indians and the Royals as well.

5) Cleveland Indians (projected finish: 66-96)

The Indians’ second rebuilding project since their appearance in the 2007 ALCS began much earlier than expected, and was officially brought in by the seemingly natural front office progression of the promotion of hotshot candidate Chris Antonetti to the role of General Manger, with former GM Mark Shapiro taking on the title of “President of Baseball Operations.”  That doesn’t make it immediately clear who will be doing what, but the Indians message for their fans is clear: it’s Antonetti’s show now.

Cleveland’s best asset is its deep farm system, although they lack the bevy of top prospects of the next team on this list.  They have two proven major league regulars in OF Chin-Soo Chu, and OF Grady Sizemore, another to-be regular in second year C Carlos Santana, and then will rely on whatever contributions slow-to-develop OF/1B Matt LaPorta and longtime DH Travis Hafner can give them.

That’s a decent core to build a team around, but unfortunately, it’s unlikely that Chu, Sizemore, or Hafner will be around for the next AL Central-contending Indians team.  LaPorta is increasingly less likely to develop as a power hitter as the weeks pass, and while Hafner rebounded in 2010 for his best season since 2007, he’s 34 now.

The Indians don’t have much by way of pitching, with the erratic Fausto Carmona at the top of their rotation, and the bullpen unsettled, to put it kindly.  This is a problem when you consider the lacking quality of the Indians’ team defense, notably at the hard to fill positions of centerfield, and shortstop.  Former Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson still has some potential to help the rotation, but the rest of the help may still be a year away.  The race for worst pitching staff in the AL Central between the Indians and Royals could be as fascinating as the farm-arms race that will occur between the two clubs in years to come.

4) Kansas City Royals (projected finish: 71-91)

Its going to be just one more year of bad baseball in Kansas City, although the real question is whether or not the product that follows 17 years of bad baseball was worth waiting for.  That’s hard to say.

The Royals could have competed in 2011, but would have needed to hold onto RF David DeJesus, and RHP Zack Greinke to do so, and probably would have needed to add a pricy bat or arm in free agency, and even then, the Royals would only have been a fringe contender for the AL Central.  That would have been more costly when you factor in the additional cost of keeping Greinke happy: holding on to veterans signed last year instead of shedding salary at the trading deadline of a non-competitive team.  Instead the team made the wise “money” move, and traded DeJesus and Greinke for whatever they could get, essentially ending the team’s hopes of competing this year before spring training started.  On the bright side, payroll is down under $35 million this year (thanks to the unexpected retirement of Gil Meche and his $12 million), and only Billy Butler has a guaranteed contract beyond this season.

The teams best player is closer Joakim Soria, but the real reason to expect the Royals to be better than last year despite losing their top position player and best pitcher is the quality of the teams defense.  The Royals were horrid last year at preventing runs in games not started by Greinke or Bruce Chen, and they were horrid despite some defense-independent pitching improvement from third starter Kyle Davies.  Brian Bannister has been jettisoned to Japan, Chen has been resigned, and the Royals added former Rockie left-hander Jeff Francis to replace Greinke.

The team defense will be the reason for improvement in the run prevention unit.  Going from Yuni Betancourt to Alcides Escobar at short is a two or three win upgrade, essentially the difference between Greinke and Francis.  Third base will be a defensive strength, at least until Mike Moustakas arrives in the majors (a day which no Royals fan is dreading), as will second with a continuation of a Chris Getz/Mike Aviles platoon.  First base will be average at best, but an Alex Gordon, Mitch Maier/Melky Cabrera/Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Francouer outfield has the potential to be the best defensive outfield in years for KC.  And that’s without stalwart defender DeJesus.

No matter what, an offense with Francouer, Jason Kendall, Melky Cabrera, Getz, Escobar, and possibly even Pedro Feliz is going to struggle to simply not be the lowest run producing offense in the AL (but thanks for trying, Seattle), and the bats the Royals will rely on this year don’t have a particularly impressive MLB track record (exception: Butler).  That’s why its a minority prediction to suggest the Royals will actually be closer to .500 than to 100 losses.  But improved team defense will make the rotation look better, and as long as Joakim Soria is healthy, the Royals will win a disproportional amount of close games, making this a justifiable prediction.

3) Detroit Tigers (projected finish: 79-83)

There’s plenty of optimism coming out of Lakeland this spring, if for a moment, we can ignore the fact that the team’s best player Miguel Cabrera has a serious issue with alcohol.  The latest bout isn’t career threatening, necessarily, but while similarity scores view him as a player who will be a star into his late thirties, that’s the kind of projection that could be cut short by alcohol abuse.  Cabrera was named the best hitter in baseball by LiveBall Sports last July, in the midst of Albert Pujols’ one seemingly human season in the last eight.  Cabrera hit better than Pujols in 2010, though not quite better than AL MVP Josh Hamilton, although their batting runs above average were practically identical.

The argument is not that Cabrera is the best player in baseball, as he’s a well below average defender at a non-premium position.  Pujols is a great defender, and a far superior baserunner as well.  Cabrera is the most dangerous player in baseball with a bat in his hands.  And alcohol threatens to shorten his run of dominance with the bat.

The Tigers will enter 2010 with the division’s best rotation, including Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny, and Max Scherzer, and they will have plenty of firearms in the bullpen as well.  Whether they actually finish the year with the best rotation in the division depends on the quality of work of White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, and the health of all these flamethrowers the Tigers employ.

The team’s biggest offseason acquisition was Catcher Victor Martinez, a legitimate middle of the order bat, if not the best defensive catcher on the team (that would be second year man, Alex Avila).  Both figure to see more than 350 PAs this year.  CF Austin Jackson and RF Magglio Ordonez will make up two thirds of the Tigers starting outfield, and Brandon Inge returns as the regular third baseman, but the rest of the lineup will be a series of unimpressive platoons and week-to-week sketch ups by manager Jim Leyland.  Inge and Jackson are both excellent defenders, and supersub Don Kelly’s glove will play at any position, but this is not a great defensive team, and Martinez won’t do anything to solve those issues.  Put simply, the bats must rank near the top of the AL for Detroit to win the AL Central.

2) Chicago White Sox (projected finish: 86- 78)

The White Sox should be better than last year for the same reason the Royals should be better than last year.  They made one huge improvement at the weakest position on the team.  Some of the plate appearances that were engulfed by Juan Pierre this year will belong to Adam Dunn, who should make his home nicely in the bandbox that is US Cellular Field.  A second improvement should come from rookie 3B Brent Morel, who if not an offensive improvement, will certainly provide defensive improvement to Mark Teahen and Dayan Viciedo.

The rotation of John Danks, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, and Edwin Jackson offers the deepest rotation in the AL, with the most potential upside of any rotation west of Tampa/east of Oakland.  Peavy, Floyd, and Jackson all offer value that is more speculative than the established contributions of Buerhle and Danks.

Unquestionably, however, the strength of the White Sox in the infield gives way to one of the thinnest outfields in the majors.  Left to right, the starters are Pierre, Alex Rios, and Carlos Quentin.  Quentin can’t play the field very well, but the Dunn acqusition makes him a full timer out there.  Rios was above average in center last year, but is still stretched kind of thin in center.  He’d offer more defensive value in a corner.  Pierre at least won’t be playing any DH this year, and played a good left field last season, but it’s not a position his bat can handle.  Teahen should see playing time in both left and right field.

If the staff and bullpen goes through the expected development and has the Sox competing near the top of the league in most pitching candidates, the Sox could be big-name buyers at the deadline on an outfielder.  They should be in this race longer than the Tigers, but without additional help in the lineup, the White Sox are destined to come up short, and in a worst case scenario, could find themselves selling at the deadline.

1) Minnesota Twins (projected finish: 90-72)

The Twins remain one of the best teams in baseball.  They were able to retain key contributors Jim Thome and Carl Pavano from their free agent class.  There are only two troubling things about this Twins team: first, that Justin Morneau still isn’t asymptomatic from a concussion suffered last July.  Secondly, that without Morneau, the Twins will play a very, very watered down group of infielders, one that will be tough to win with.

The Twins have had a long standing issue with outfield defense.  Last year, the trio of Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young combined to produce -29 UZR (runs), a staggering figure for guys playing in three positions.  The trio is back this year.

Minnesota was able to mitigate that a bit with excellent infield defense from JJ Hardy, Danny Valencia, Nick Punto, Orlando Hudson, and a great first half with the glove from Morneau.  Of the five names, only Valencia is likely to be good to go on opening day.  Gone are Hardy, Punto, and Hudson.  Japanese signee Tsuyoshi Nishioka will take over at the keystone.  Alexi Casilla is sliding over to shortstop, the only position on the diamond where his bat profiles.  His glove may project there after all, but the Twins ask so much out of their infield defenders to make up for that outfield defense.  They also must rely on Denard Span to have another strong year with the glove in center.

The Twins might have jettisoned their role contributors while holding onto dead weight, such as Cuddyer.  That’s the concern with them.  But an offense that produced enough runs to be at the top of the AL last year — led by all-world catcher Joe Mauer — should pull off the same feat again with even greater ease this year.  The Minnesota pitching staff is unimpressive on paper, but very underrated as a group.  Joe Nathan returns in the closer role this year, strengthening the entire bullpen.

My Twins projection is depressed a bit not because the team won’t be improved at all, but because the White Sox, Royals, and Indians are all improving, and part of the effect of 94 wins by the Twins last year were simply poor in-division competition from teams that weren’t the Detroit Tigers.  The four game margin of victory in the AL Central probably understates how the Twins won’t have to make a deadline trade to win this division comfortably.

One of my earliest criticisms of baseball sabermetrics had to do with the way that player defensive value was shrugged off as merely being a matter of position and scarcity.  Defensive stats have come a long way, possibly to the point where this criticism is no longer relevant.  A run prevented is pretty much treated the same as a run scored.

Is this the case though?  In the most literal sense, of course it’s true — either way, you’re one run closer to winning a game.  It also makes for a nice way of promoting defense: a player who saves a run with the glove is just as valuable as a player who creates a run with the bat.

Defense is of paramount importance to baseball teams because much of what is perceived as pitching success or failure is probably defensive success or failure.  There is a reason that many “stats” guys feel like MLB teams overvalue the negative effect of a pitcher who gives up too many home runs, but I’m siding with the baseball execs here: keeping the ball in the park needs to be the number one concern for pitchers: it’s far more devastating to give up the long ball at an above average rate than whatever the linear weights equivalents of reduced strikeouts or increased walks may be.  For pitchers, a high HR rate represents a lack of command similar to that of an increase walk rate, only with a more devastating result.  ”Wild” pitchers can see an uptick in both walks and strikeouts, without having their HR rates change whatsoever.

When we talk about defensive runs prevented we talk about a denominator of the expected value of runs on total balls in play.  But offensively, the denominator is different.  It’s not all balls in play, it’s the outcome of every at bat in a sample.  The difference between the two is known as defensive independent pitching.  But DIPS come with a caveat that batted balls aren’t totally independent of pitching, only mostly independent.  The quality and type of pitcher can affect the difficulty of turning batted balls into outs.  This would certainly imply that a defensive run saved would somehow be different than an offensive run created, and that pitchers are the primary variable.  Though this is widely accepted, it’s also counter-intuitive to how modern statistical writers perceive baseball.

The other thing is that the score and game situation matters.  Teams attempt to maximize win probability, not always run probability.  The hottest area of debate over this principle is the strategic value of sacrifice bunting (usually both run- and win-probability deflating), but I want to focus on outs.  An offensive out is, in theory, always of the same value: one out closer to ending an inning/the game.  They are baseball’s independent variable.  The third out is usually more costly to an offense than the second or first out, but all progress the game in exactly the same fashion.  Defensively, however, this isn’t always the case.  If the outs/runs matrix was identical in all game situations, there would be a universal optimal choice on this game situation:

Runners on 1st and 3rd, 0 outs.  Ground ball to third base, with all runners trying to advance.  The ball is cleanly fielded.

In perfectly normal game situations, it makes more statistical sense to go to second to attempt a double play, so long as the team plays at a level where the double play would be executed routinely.  As soon as the third baseman goes to second for the first out, the run is going to score.  It is, by definition, not run preventing because a run is scoring on this play by fielder’s choice (literally, the official scorer rules the play a fielders choice, no matter where the ball is thrown or what the outcome is).  If I give you more information about the play, telling you that the game is tied in the bottom of the ninth inning, then throwing to second is the right choice 0% of the time.  Two outs are meaningless, because the game ends when the run is scored.

This is a much more telling “strategic” dilemma than the sacrifice bunt matrices because both strategies are made with the abstract idea of preventing runs, but once again, that brings me back to the original point: not all runs are created equal, and because there are two strategic players in baseball (the teams, and specifically the managers), game theory indicates that even in normal game situations, no run can be perceived precisely the same way by both teams.  This means that a run scored and a run prevented are, in the most strategic sense, not identical, nor are they of identical value.

This revelation is probably meaningless, because even though I have argued that scored runs and prevented runs are not of identical value, it’s not clear if or why one should be considered inherently more valuable than the other.  I suspect — with no numbers to back this up — that scored runs are slightly more valuable than prevented runs.  Obviously, this whole post is a case of abstract nitpicking.  When building a baseball team, it makes perfect sense to try to improve the team by both adding runs and preventing runs, and not simply deciding to become proficient at one or the other and let the chips fall where they may.  I do think there is an inherent strategic advantage to having a high total of runs scored with regard to winning games, because it would seem easier for a manager to pull a couple strings with his bullpen and defense to stop the bleeding than for the same manager to try to create “just enough” runs to beat a pitcher that could easily dominate his offense.

What does all of this mean?  Probably not very much.  It just means that runs scored and runs prevented are not of inherently identical value.  It doesn’t mean that MLB defense or pitching or offense are overvalued or undervalued.  I did not discover any market inefficiencies in this post.  If anything, I went well out of my way to loosely agree with the baseball establishment, and the way they do things.  But just like football analysis gets raked for not properly considering weather, opponent, and injury context, baseball analysis probably has a bit of work to do before properly assessing the value of defensive runs in, well, player value, but much more significantly, team and division projections.

The arms race is on in the National League, although the participants aren’t exactly numerous.  It’s the Phillies, it’s the Brewers, and it’s everyone else.

Just a week after Cliff Lee re-joined the Philadelphia Phillies for nine figures of charity, the Kansas City Royals traded their ace, Greinke, to the Brewers for a package of players including OF Lorenzo Cain, RP Jeremy Jeffress, and SS Alcedies Escobar.  Greinke will make $27 million from the Brewers over the next two seasons before becoming a free agent in November of 2012.

It’s a no-brainer trade for the Brewers.  Some may question the wisdom of acquiring SS Yuniesky Betancourt in the same deal to be their starting shortstop: you now have to find a way to generate last year’s run production with Carlos Gomez in CF and Betancourt at SS.  That’s not going to be easy.  But with Greinke, the Brewers sport a rotation that rivals the Phillies for the best rotation in the National League.  They already had an ace-type in Yovani Gallardo, and Greinke gives the Brewers a pair of aces.  When you talk about having Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, you certainly have to think you have the best front-of-the-rotation in baseball.  Greinke and Gallardo, if nothing else, have to be in the same discussion.  The acquisition of Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays gives Milwaukee another front-line starter who, in the opinion of this writer, is better than National League-lifer Roy Oswalt.  While Randy Wolf is not going to provide the quality of Cole Hamels at his best, he’d be a no. 3 pitcher anywhere else.

Only the A’s and Giants may feature a rotation stronger than either the Brewers or the Phillies.  I don’t think the Rays or Twins or Tigers or White Sox — who all have strong and deep pitching rotations — quite qualify.  The edge for the Phillies over the Brewers this year will come by way of an established offense.  The Brewers are looking strong on offense again this year, but it’s a lot of speculative value: Prince Fielder should rebound, Mat Gamel and Casey McGahee should continue to produce.  Maybe Betancourt will hit more like he did in 2010 instead of his 2009 disaster season.  Gomez could still develop into a competent bat-handler.  2-6, the Brewers can absolutely clobber the baseball.  But this is not a great defensive team, and the Phillies are almost certain to be healthier than last year, even once you account for the fact that their lineup is aging.  The Brewers should be considered the favorite to win the NL Central in 2011, and in a playoff field, we’ll get to see the strength of another young, top-loaded rotation in baseball.

The other part of this trade is from the Royals perspective, where the haul received might only partially off-set what Greinke put the Royals through over the last five months.  This isn’t a particularly strong group of prospects.

What can be said in defense of this trade for the Royals is that 1) I firmly believe the timing was right: Greinke couldn’t pitch for the Royals again unless they were willing to let him walk at the end of the 2012 season in free agency.  2) If the Royals were going to trade with the prospect-depleted Brewers, they could not have done better than they did.  One exception is if the Royals had acted sooner and were able to acquire 2B Brett Lawrie, prior to him being dealt to the Blue Jays for Marcum.  The Royals recouped some value in terms of salary relief from Betancourt, saving $4 million of the $6 million he was owed.  In total, the Royals paid Betancourt $3 million for a season and a half, roughly breaking even on their investment.

I think, though, that the Brewers only made sense as a Royals trading partner from the Brewers perspective.  The Royals could have done better.  The centerpiece of this trade, if you want to call it that, is Escobar for Betancourt.  Big upgrade for the Royals, no doubt, but this was a Zack Greinke trade after all.  If this trade is to be profitable for the Royals, they will need to be able to look down on their division in 2013, and say that Escobar is an equal or better player to the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus.  I’m not optimistic.  Lorenzo Cain was a trade-able piece that the Brewers didn’t value very much, but knew the timing was right to sell on him.  He fills a need for the Royals, but doesn’t provide much value.

The Royals were able to grab the top two pitching prospects in the Brewers system, but the Brew Crew might actually be happy to be rid of the Jeremy Jeffress headache.  His upside appears to be a major league closer, leaving the Royals to gauge the future value of their current closer, Joakim Soria, by far their best pitcher.  Jeffress has two substance-abuse positive tests, and suspensions.  What strikes me about him is that it’s not clear that the Royals really even want him or think they can turn him into a star, but he’s the only player that would help get the Royals value.  The final piece is a really nice pitching prospect named Jake Odorizzi, who is about three years away from major league action.

Again, Escobar is THE prospect in this deal, and he fills the biggest need, and has likely the best upside.  He had a .288 on-base percentage for the Brewers last year.  That’s why this trade is less than exciting for the Royals.  I don’t doubt Escobar can be great someday, and I don’t doubt that he’s going to on-base over .310 this year.  But what the Royals lost was much more significant.  They traded their best player for some up the middle help.

I think, in the short term, this does break the Royals.  Billy Butler has three years remaining as a Royal, pending a contract extension.  He’s likely to remain in Royal blue though 2011, and then all bets are off after that.  He could be the next piece to fall.  I don’t see the Royals moving Joakim Soria anytime soon, as his contract sheds some light on a potential move to replace Greinke in the Royals rotation: there are 2012 bonuses built in for innings pitched, as well as games finished.  Plus, in trading Greinke now, the Royals were also smartly selling off some injury risk, which reports are were a fear of GM Dayton Moore in light of a season-ending David DeJesus injury that cost him a midseason trade last year.  The Royals have no such risk with Soria: most of his contract is built in in the form of contract options.  He’s team controlled through 2014, but the Royals can really stretch Soria out this year as a front line starter with very limited financial risk.

At the conclusion of the 2011 season, the Kansas City Royals will go practically overnight from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the most promising.  The total amount of prorated salary the Royals have committed to major league contracts after 2011 is $4.5 million.  That’s for three pitchers (Joakim Soria, Aaron Crow, Noel Arguelles).  They had $15.5 million more committed prior to this trade to Betancourt and Greinke.  A majority of the Royals roster in 2012 is expected to be of cheap, home-grown players.  This isn’t rebuilding: it’s starting from scratch.

Which is why Greinke wanted nothing to do with the Royals anymore.  Paraphrasing his own words, Greinke had already been through two Royals rebuildings (2004 under Allard Baird, and again in 2007 under Dayton Moore).  Both GMs gave it the old college try, but could not find improvement that would satisfy their ace.  It was the humane thing to trade him, and the Brewers are a great situation for Greinke.

The loser here is the Royals.  There would have been other trade partners who would have offered the Royals more value than Moore got from the Brewers.  I think the Braves had more to offer, and so did the Rangers, among others.  The Brewers gave Moore as much as he needed to be willing to deal his ace.  This won’t go down in history as an epically bad trade.  But the Royals didn’t need to avert a conflict with their star so much as they needed to finally win something.  They are not the winner in this deal.  Greinke is.

The White Sox’s signing of Omar Vizquel to a one-year deal will not make or break them as champions, but it may raise some eyebrows considering he will be 44 years old for the 2011 season. Despite the age, Vizquel is a smart investment for a contending White Sox team.

Vizquel had a pretty good year for a 43-year-old in 2010, hitting .276/.341/.331 while playing some third base, shortstop, second base and DH. While he didn’t play any defensive position particularly well, his versatility is valuable given the ineptitude of any other organizational options such as Brent Lillibridge or Fernando Cortez.

Fangraphs has his 2010 season valued at only $1.0 million dollars, although that was likely skewed by the bulk of his time at third base and designated hitter. With the emergence of slugging third basemen Brent Morel and Dayan Viciedo, Vizquel will be used more properly in the coming year. Vizquel will be able to give days off to Morel, Viciedo, Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham while also likely filling a mentor role for the younger players.

Some may scoff that any money was given to Vizquel given his production and age, but Vizquel keeps himself in tremendous physical shape, making him less likely to decline suddenly. Other options such as Craig Counsell, Nick Punto, Mike Fontenot and Adam Everett all carry different weaknesses. It will be interesting to see how Vizquel’s contract compares with some of the other younger infielders such as Jhonny Peralta.

With a lack of other suitable options, the White Sox were able to secure a solid piece to their 2011 bench at a cheap price. Their success, however, will be determined by how little they depend on Vizquel to produce.

The San Francisco Giants are World Series Champs. Ask anyone how they did it and they’ll probably give you a similar answer: starting pitching, timely hitting and a great rookie catcher. This formula seems foolproof for playoff success, but any other club will have a difficult time recreating the same type of magic.

For starters (pun intended), elite pitching is incredibly difficult to come across at any cost. After the mid-90′s dominance of Atlanta, much was made of the Braves’ model and the incomparable strength of three Cy Young candidates in your staff. Teams such as the early 2000′s Cubs tried to build on that idea, only to see some of their big arms flame out.

The Giants were able to obtain their homegrown product by investing three first-round draft picks and developing a late-round pick into dominant starters. For the most part, this is extremely rare. A lot has to come together for any of these picks to become as dominant as the Giants’ four have become. Even if a pitcher merely becomes an average starter, injury is a constant reality in the life of a young arm.

Given the time, variability and risk in developing a pitching staff, a different approach has been to add top starters via free agency. The most recent example has been the Yankees, but they haven’t even had a season where four starters have put together great years. Even the World Series Champion Giants engaged in the free agent game by giving Barry Zito an albatross of a contract. It appears that even though free agency can grant a few good years out of a pitcher, building an entire rotation that way will ultimately lead to some bad investments.

The last time four starters of this caliber came together for a World Series win was back in 2005. The Chicago White Sox had a mix of homegrown and acquired talent featuring the fearsome foursome of Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Mark Buerhle and Jose Contreras. For a few of these pitchers, this was a year of career years. In the Giants case, their success almost seems guaranteed for a good part of this decade.

In terms of the Giants’ hitting, they will be almost as impossible to imitate. Catcher Buster Posey is another first-round pick who developed into a star. For the rest of the team, you have a bunch of seemingly stop-gap solutions and castoffs: Freddy Sanchez, Juan Uribe, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Andres Torres and Cody Ross make up part of a long list of players who played at unexpected levels. Posey, the team’s only cornerstone, didn’t even join the club until a quarter of a way through the championship season.

The Giants’ hitters feature additional unproductive contracts: Aaron Rowand earning $13.6 million, Mark Derosa at $6.0 million and Edgar Renteria at $10 million. Any small or mid-market team looking to take this approach would go bankrupt before winning a World Series.

For the Giants to come together in 2010, it took a solid group of young players along with several bottles full of lightning while ignoring tens of millions of dollars in dead money. Any GM would be wise to look the other way as they enter the winter meetings.