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Milwaukee’s own Zack Greinke (6-1; 4.69 ERA) is 6-1 for only the second time in his seven year baseball career.  The other time he was 6-1, the BBWAA gave him the award pictured above.  Equipment producer Mizuno gave him this.

However, no one is throwing a parade in a plaza for Greinke this time around.  Back in 2009, Greinke was sitting on a 0.50 ERA at this point, and could be considered a hard luck 6-1.  This time, NL opponents have scored 26 times off Greinke already.  But the differences are remarkable.  Greinke is stranding the lowest rate of baserunners in his career: 63.0%.  He is suffering from a flyball tendency in a way he has not struggled with since his formative days in Kansas City.  Greinke’s BABIP has soared over his last two starts (both wins) to .344 on the season.  And the reasoning for all those problems resulting in a 4.69 ERA instead of something more resembling the numbers he put up in Kansas City is exclusively related to the homerun ball.

Greinke has allowed six homers this year, including yesterday.  And those homers haven’t been of the common, solo variety either.  They’ve been potential back-breakers to the Brewers chances.  It’s a combination of the opponents being able to get the ball in the air, having runners on base against Greinke when it happens (Greinke is allowing a fraction over a baserunner per inning, so this has to regress at some point), and the Brewers defense simply not getting to balls in play.

But Greinke could care less about that ERA stat.  For the first time in his career, he plays for a team that bails him out by way of run support.  And Greinke himself, who has already scored twice this year, including the game tying run yesterday on a Rickie Weeks go-ahead 6th inning homer, is now part of that run support equation.  It’s really made all the difference for him to go for hoping to get 2 or 3 runs to work with from the Royals offense, and not even getting that at times, to being able to give up 3, 4, or even 5 runs in a start, and still find a way to be pitching from ahead deep in the game.

It is not probable, but it is possible, that Zack Greinke could do the whole career high in games won this season despite missing roughly five starts due to a DL stint for a fractured rib in March/April.  Greinke lost his first start coming off the DL in Atlanta, but having pitched at home in Miller Park in all but one of his next seven starts, the Brewers have managed to win each one of those seven games, now the longest single-season winning streak in games started by Zack Greinke (he had a longer one lasting from September 2008-May 2009).

Two years ago, there was a situation revolving around the all-star game starting pitcher, which Greinke had clearly identified as either himself or Toronto’s Roy Halladay.  Two years later, we can wonder if anything has really changed.  Greinke is in the National League, as is Halladay.  Cliff Lee is a pitching leaderboard mainstay.  Felix Hernandez also has a Cy Young award to show for his efforts.  One of those four pitchers has to be the best pitcher in baseball.

The majority would probably sat that Halladay is still the best.  It’s hard to disagree.  Greinke probably wouldn’t disagree.  Look at the year to year production.  Roy Halladay is still the toughest pitcher to beat in a major league game.

The only group of people I might think of that could disagree is National League hitters.  Collectively, I don’t know if there’s a group out there who has less success than NL hitters against Greinke.  60 players have struck out against Greinke this year.  56 players have reached base against Greinke this year.  If dominance for a pitcher is represented by those two numbers even being close (like they were in 2009 for Greinke, or they have been for Halladay throughout his career), the pace Greinke is on in 2011 is nothing short of historic.

There’s just no reason to think he can keep that pace up.  Unless, of course, you believe that Greinke is better than he was in 2009.  I’m not saying he is.  I’m also not saying he isn’t.  What I am saying is, from the perspective of hitters alone, putting aside his value to an organization or all-star credentials or other distractions, Zack Greinke is the most dangerous pitcher in baseball to face, and also possibly the very best.

Four days of baseball tells you…not much about teams. What it might tell us is that we just didn’t know what we were talking about in the preseason. After the seasons’ first series, I really want to take back all those picks I made without conviction.

Specifically speaking, I feel like I just overlooked the NL Central defending champion Cincinnati Reds.  And this is an incredibly pre-mature mea culpa.  In LiveBall’s NL Central preview, I hesitantly picked the Brewers to win after expressing concern that I was picking a sucker’s bet in a weak division.  Well, the Brewers have begun 0-4, but you know, the Cardinals haven’t won either, and the Cubs didn’t get started on the right foot at Pittsburgh, while neither the Pirates or Astros can yet be taken seriously.  The team I so obviously overlooked was last years winner, the Reds, who emphatically crushed the Brewers at home in a three game set.  None of the games were close after Opening Day, when the Reds won in comeback, walk-off fashion.  The Brewers have now fallen to 0-4, and while I think they will rebound to win 80-some games easily, the assertion that there is no clear favorite in the NL Central appears wrong.  The Reds are a clear favorite.  The Brewers may be the best of the rest, but after being swept in Cincinnati, it’s the Reds that are the team to beat.

What the Brewers have shown early on is a complete lack of depth.  Corey Hart has a strained rib cage muscle, and is on the DL.  The assumption with those picking the Brewers is that the always potent Brewers lineup would “score runs.”  Of course, they traded their starting SS and potentially starting CF to the Royals in the Zack Greinke deal, and even though the now incumbent CF Carlos Gomez is showing some production with the bat, the Brewers simply don’t have the depth in RF with Hart out.  Even with the top four in the lineup off to a good start, the bottom of this order after Casey McGahee is dreadful.  Yuni Betancourt, an Erick Almonte/Nyjer Morgan platoon replacing Hart, and then George Kotteras and Wil Nieves at catcher.  As a 6-8 in the NL, that’s a horrendous lineup.  The Brewers will make a run when Hart and Zack Greinke come off the DL, but if the Reds play like they did last year, it’s not going to matter.  The Reds will win the division with one of the NL’s best records, and the Brewers will have to scrap for a wild card berth.  If they get that Wild Card, I still like them to go deep in the playoffs, even at 0-4 to start the season.

The weirdest series of the weekend was played in Kansas City, where the Royals won the series 3-1 winning TWO games on walkoff homers.  In the entire 2010 season, the Royals won just once on a walkoff homer, by Alex Gordon, over the Orioles the week before Buck Showalter took over.  They’ve doubled that total, and there are still 158 games to play.

One of the reason for increased walkoff homers is that the Royals never hit so many homers in a series in general.  The Royals hit six homers in the series (all but one a solo shot), and they were hit by six different players.  The Angels spent the entire series playing longball as well, going yard 9 times.  15 homers in a single series at Kauffman Stadium is a lot, even considering 4 games, and typically only happens when Royals pitching is feeling up to the task.  For the Angels to hit 7 homers of 9 homers in a three game span, losing all three games in the process says a lot about the Angels.  The weather was whacky as well, as both the Angels and Royals’ television production crews were forced to move out of “high home” position, thanks to gusting wins that blew water out of the signature fountains at Kauffman Stadium and would have potentially destroyed the cameras if left in normal position.  Water wasn’t the only thing blown around by the wind, as Bruce Chen “fastballs” also ended up traveling further than they might have otherwise, if only for effect.

The Royals’ series win could spell trouble for the Angels — the Royals rarely outscore a team in a series.  The Angels can’t trust their bullpen, can’t trust Scott Kazmir, and bat Bobby Abreu and Alberto Callaspo in a lineup of otherwise overrated hitters as they wait to bring 1B Kendrys Morales back to the lineup when he’s fully recovered from a broken leg suffered at home plate after a walkoff homer in 2010.  But the Royals feature unbelievably impressive depth in their bullpen mostly from arms under the age of 25.  Their ability to hold late leads and play defense late in games is an ability they pretty much lacked last season, and could prove to pit their decision makers in an odd dilemma: whether to push starting pitching prospects up to make a previously unfathomable run in the AL Central if they leverage a weak April schedule into a lot of early wins and a hot start.

Angels fans aren’t panicking quite like Red Sox fans after an 0-3 start.  The Rangers played longball off Red Sox pitching, and though the Red Sox will score this year, pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Clay Buccholz simply weren’t up to the task on baseball’s first weekend.  The Rangers meanwhile, threw fine in their first series without Cliff Lee on the roster, and look to be every bit the favorites in the American League this year.  The Red Sox will be fine, but maybe were exposed a bit as overrated by the masses considering better than 70% of fans expected the Red Sox to beat the other four teams in the division.  That’s a sizable majority, but the standings say: two games behind the Yankees (and three and a half behind the Orioles)!

Wrapping up, the AL East is also the place of the most meaningful early series, where the Orioles swept — yes, swept — the Tampa Bay Rays.  This blog has the Rays returning to the playoffs behind only, ahem, the Red Sox, but those chances took a big hit as all-world 3B Evan Longoria will head to the disabled list, rendering the Rays offense largely punchless.  Time to see if Ben Zobrist, John Jaso, and BJ Upton are worth the big bucks in Tampa, and it’s time for that rotation to carry them.

But the Orioles are the story of baseball in the early going, if only because their late season production last year seemed unsustainable.  At this point though, last year’s season-best finish is a reason to buy the Orioles as a potential wild card contender.  I don’t think they’ll be able to do it, but it does look like the Orioles aren’t heading to last place anytime soon, and could have the talent (particularly in the pitching staff) to hang with the Big Boys in baseball’s best division.  After all, the standings are the only thing that matters this early in the season, and we’re still waiting on the first team to beat the Orioles in 2011.  The Detroit Tigers will take another crack at pulling off such a feat tomorrow as baseball’s regular season hits high gear.

The cream of the NL Central division could prove to be the team best suited to win the playoffs this year.  There’s a problem though: like the 2010 Giants, the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers are better built to win in short series with frontline pitching rather than win over an entire season with strong defense and hitting.  The runs will be there, but the defense could keep the Brewers from the NL Central title, and it’s unlikely that the perpetually weak NL Central can send two teams to the playoffs.

1) Milwaukee Brewers (projected finish: 90-72)

In a year where the Brewers absolutely have what it takes to win it all, there is also considerable opportunity for disappointment.  Despite pitchers Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf, the Brewers still figure to give up a lot of runs to opposing hitters.  They are weak defensively right up the middle, from catcher all the way into the outfield, and neither Ryan Braun or Corey Hart is going to cover enough ground in the outfield to make up for the flyball tendencies of that pitching staff.  That means a lot of extra base hits, and don’t even get me started about Yuni Betancourt at SS.

Fortunately for the Brewers, this appears to be a down year in a down division.  The offseason favorite Cardinals lost their best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, for the season, and Albert Pujols may be in a bit of decline, if only because no one ever had the run Pujols did between 2003-09.  For the most improved team in the division, the time is now to strike whilst the iron is hot.  The Brewers must be aware of baseball’s recent history: three years ago the Detroit Tigers traded most of their upper farm system to the Florida Marlins for 1B Miguel Cabrera and LHP Dontrelle Willis, and were the trendy pick to win it all in the offseason.  They lost their first eight games of the season, and didn’t reach the .500 mark until July.

Zack Greinke is out maybe until May Day with a fractured rib, a non-baseball related injury.  The Brewers will need the big sticks of Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Hart, and Braun to get them through a tough first month, and hope to not take on any more injuries.  As easily as the lack of depth on the Brewers could derail the team’s playoff hopes before they get started, their frontline ability offers plenty of potential playoff heroes.  If and when the Brewers get into the playoffs, the Phillies could meet their match at Miller Park in October.

2) St. Louis Cardinals (projected finish: 83-79)

Between the inability to reach a contract extension with Albert Pujols, and the loss of Wainright, it’s easy to say that no team had as rough a spring as did the St. Louis Cardinals, at least in terms of outcomes.  This projection would tie the fourth worst finish by the Cards since Tony LaRussa became their manager before the 1996 season.  The more the team loses, inevitably the more likely it becomes that Pujols and the Cardinals cannot agree on a deal and they part ways after the season.  Potentially, 2011 could be the end of the Cardinals as we recognize them.

Before we all collectively plan their funeral, if/when the Brewers stumble out of the gate, no team in the Central is better positioned to take the title than the Cardinals are.  Even with all the Pujols silliness that is bound to occur in the near-term future, the Cardinals have the strongest organizational infrastructure in the NL Central.  Though they don’t have the youth of the Reds, quantity of stars of the Brewers, or the financial resources of the Cubs, they always post one of the league’s best pitching staffs.  That’s something that should happen again this season, even without their best pitcher.

The Cardinals should be able to make up for the weakened rotation by getting quality innings out of their bullpen.  The rotation, however, should once again feature five pitchers at or below the 4.00 ERA line.  Led by the injury-prone Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals should win more than they lose in 2010 thanks to the middle of the order power of Pujols and Matt Holliday, and an increased reliance on the young bat of Colby Rasmus.  This team isn’t young, won’t be particularly healthy, and is over-reliant on Pujols, but all those things are relatively minor flaws by the standards of a major league baseball club.  At least in the short term, they should be fine.  After the season though, we’ll see if the Cardinals can stave off disaster with the odds stacked against them.

3) Cincinnati Reds (projected finish: 81-81)

Manager Dusty Baker was handed a team full of young prospects and odd pickups such as Scott Rolen and was tasked with the need to lead the Reds to the postseason in 2010, which is exactly what they did.  With all that young talent, Baker’s job could lie in his ability to lead the young team to take the next step.  My projection shows that another 162 games is a long time to try to hold off the savvy Cardinals, and this could be a down year for Baker and the Reds with the Brewers primed to make their move.

1B Joey Votto and RF Jay Bruce have become true middle of the order threats behind 2B Brandon Phillips in the Cincinnati lineup.  The Reds will look to challenge the Brewers to lead the NL Central in runs scored this year, a race that likely needs to be won in order to win the division this season.

The question, as it always is with Baker-led teams, is with the pitching staff.  Johnny Cueto is already being rationed with shoulder inflamation and Edison Volquez delivers the ball particularly violently at risk for serious arm injury.  Homer Bailey may not be the pitcher the Reds thought he was.  The big question from camp is what will come of left-handed flamethrower and Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.  The Reds invested a ton of money in Chapman, and for the second straight year, he will come out of the bullpen.  The 2011 Reds may not be tied to him, but money spent on Chapman is money the Reds can’t use on Bruce or Votto, so this window of opportunity could be a two or three year deal.

4) Chicago Cubs (projected finish: 78-84)

The Cubs just endured a second straight disaster year under jettisoned manager Lou Pinella, replaced by Mike Quade.  The 2009 season came mostly as a surprise, but the Cubs 2010 season was derailed as much as anything by Pinella running out of ideas for his team really, really early in May.  The improvement under Quade was mostly — but not entirely a mirage — the Cubs are a bit better than they played in 2010.

Still, this won’t be a contending team because its one with one too many bad contracts.  Alphonso Soriano is still a productive hitter for now, but that’s a disaster contract with Kosuke Fukudome and his $12 million in the same outfield.  No one really knows what to expect from Aramis Ramirez at third base, except that he buys top prospect Josh Vitters another year to mature as a baseball player and professional.  The Cubs just dumped another bad contract, releasing P Carlos Silva who himself was acquired from Seattle in exchange for a bad contract belonging to OF/DH Milton Bradley.  And $10 million is a lot of money for Carlos Pena for a year, especially if the former Ray falls short of 30 HRs playing home games at hitter friendly Wrigley Field.  A Derrek Lee extension during a down season might have been a wiser investment.

It’s hard to see great upside in the 2011 Cubs, but they look a lot better on paper than their reputation as underachievers might suggest.  2012 will be a crucial year in the franchise calendar for the Cubs, but a 2nd place finish in 2011 would be a great finish under Quade in his first full season on the job.

5) Houston Astros (projected finish: 68-94)

The Astros somehow find themselves in worse position as a franchise every single year dating back to their World Series appearance in 2005, but have never lost more than 89 games in a season.  They’ll avoid 100 losses again this year because of spare talent on the major league roster, but they won’t avoid 90 losses this time.

Catcher Jason Castro could miss the season with a knee that required surgery.  Carlos Lee now enjoys an albatross contract, although his .246/.291/.417 line probably doesn’t spell the end for El Caballo, because Lee’s HRs/BBs/Ks were at normal rates last season.  Lee hit .300 5 out of 6 years prior to 2010 for four different organizations, so his batting average is bound to rise again, though perhaps not back to quite that level, and that will drag his on base percentage and slugging percentages with it.  He’s a good bet for another .800 OPS season this year.

If the Astros surprise (again) it will be on the pitching end of things where Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez are coming off of strong years, and young Bud Norris is posting excellent rate stats between trips to the disabled list.  That front three can take the Astros a lot of places if the offense can score for them.  Unfortunately, it’s unclear where the runs will come from.  If Lee remains the team’s biggest offensive threat, the Astros are in trouble in 2011.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates (projected finish: 60-102)

It’s hard to say if the Pirates are improving any as an organization because it’s taken so long for them to shed dead weight.  They do have a premier second baseman in Neil Walker, and a trio of potentially great prospects at third base in Pedro Alvarez (.256/.326/.461 in 2010) and in left field with Jose Tabata (.299/.346/.400 in 2010) and in center field with Andrew McCutchen (.286/.365/.449 in 2010).

The pitching staff is still very much under-staffed, which reminds us that the Pirates are still very far away from contention.  The Pirates butcher the ball on defense, which doesn’t make the jobs of the pitchers any easier.  Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald are the best of the bunch right now, and neither is about to gather more victories than losses in their starts this year.

The Pirates are conceivably two years away, making all the right moves, with the lineup leading the way for the pitching staff, having a strong farm system, and some fortunate player acquisition opportunities.  It’s closer than the Pirates have been in a while, but likely not enough to avoid 100 losses in 2011.

LiveBall’s Previews of the 2011 MLB Season begins right in it’s own backyard with a look at the American League’s most tightly packed division, a worst to first description of all the contenders.  And, yes, the Indians and the Royals as well.

5) Cleveland Indians (projected finish: 66-96)

The Indians’ second rebuilding project since their appearance in the 2007 ALCS began much earlier than expected, and was officially brought in by the seemingly natural front office progression of the promotion of hotshot candidate Chris Antonetti to the role of General Manger, with former GM Mark Shapiro taking on the title of “President of Baseball Operations.”  That doesn’t make it immediately clear who will be doing what, but the Indians message for their fans is clear: it’s Antonetti’s show now.

Cleveland’s best asset is its deep farm system, although they lack the bevy of top prospects of the next team on this list.  They have two proven major league regulars in OF Chin-Soo Chu, and OF Grady Sizemore, another to-be regular in second year C Carlos Santana, and then will rely on whatever contributions slow-to-develop OF/1B Matt LaPorta and longtime DH Travis Hafner can give them.

That’s a decent core to build a team around, but unfortunately, it’s unlikely that Chu, Sizemore, or Hafner will be around for the next AL Central-contending Indians team.  LaPorta is increasingly less likely to develop as a power hitter as the weeks pass, and while Hafner rebounded in 2010 for his best season since 2007, he’s 34 now.

The Indians don’t have much by way of pitching, with the erratic Fausto Carmona at the top of their rotation, and the bullpen unsettled, to put it kindly.  This is a problem when you consider the lacking quality of the Indians’ team defense, notably at the hard to fill positions of centerfield, and shortstop.  Former Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson still has some potential to help the rotation, but the rest of the help may still be a year away.  The race for worst pitching staff in the AL Central between the Indians and Royals could be as fascinating as the farm-arms race that will occur between the two clubs in years to come.

4) Kansas City Royals (projected finish: 71-91)

Its going to be just one more year of bad baseball in Kansas City, although the real question is whether or not the product that follows 17 years of bad baseball was worth waiting for.  That’s hard to say.

The Royals could have competed in 2011, but would have needed to hold onto RF David DeJesus, and RHP Zack Greinke to do so, and probably would have needed to add a pricy bat or arm in free agency, and even then, the Royals would only have been a fringe contender for the AL Central.  That would have been more costly when you factor in the additional cost of keeping Greinke happy: holding on to veterans signed last year instead of shedding salary at the trading deadline of a non-competitive team.  Instead the team made the wise “money” move, and traded DeJesus and Greinke for whatever they could get, essentially ending the team’s hopes of competing this year before spring training started.  On the bright side, payroll is down under $35 million this year (thanks to the unexpected retirement of Gil Meche and his $12 million), and only Billy Butler has a guaranteed contract beyond this season.

The teams best player is closer Joakim Soria, but the real reason to expect the Royals to be better than last year despite losing their top position player and best pitcher is the quality of the teams defense.  The Royals were horrid last year at preventing runs in games not started by Greinke or Bruce Chen, and they were horrid despite some defense-independent pitching improvement from third starter Kyle Davies.  Brian Bannister has been jettisoned to Japan, Chen has been resigned, and the Royals added former Rockie left-hander Jeff Francis to replace Greinke.

The team defense will be the reason for improvement in the run prevention unit.  Going from Yuni Betancourt to Alcides Escobar at short is a two or three win upgrade, essentially the difference between Greinke and Francis.  Third base will be a defensive strength, at least until Mike Moustakas arrives in the majors (a day which no Royals fan is dreading), as will second with a continuation of a Chris Getz/Mike Aviles platoon.  First base will be average at best, but an Alex Gordon, Mitch Maier/Melky Cabrera/Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Francouer outfield has the potential to be the best defensive outfield in years for KC.  And that’s without stalwart defender DeJesus.

No matter what, an offense with Francouer, Jason Kendall, Melky Cabrera, Getz, Escobar, and possibly even Pedro Feliz is going to struggle to simply not be the lowest run producing offense in the AL (but thanks for trying, Seattle), and the bats the Royals will rely on this year don’t have a particularly impressive MLB track record (exception: Butler).  That’s why its a minority prediction to suggest the Royals will actually be closer to .500 than to 100 losses.  But improved team defense will make the rotation look better, and as long as Joakim Soria is healthy, the Royals will win a disproportional amount of close games, making this a justifiable prediction.

3) Detroit Tigers (projected finish: 79-83)

There’s plenty of optimism coming out of Lakeland this spring, if for a moment, we can ignore the fact that the team’s best player Miguel Cabrera has a serious issue with alcohol.  The latest bout isn’t career threatening, necessarily, but while similarity scores view him as a player who will be a star into his late thirties, that’s the kind of projection that could be cut short by alcohol abuse.  Cabrera was named the best hitter in baseball by LiveBall Sports last July, in the midst of Albert Pujols’ one seemingly human season in the last eight.  Cabrera hit better than Pujols in 2010, though not quite better than AL MVP Josh Hamilton, although their batting runs above average were practically identical.

The argument is not that Cabrera is the best player in baseball, as he’s a well below average defender at a non-premium position.  Pujols is a great defender, and a far superior baserunner as well.  Cabrera is the most dangerous player in baseball with a bat in his hands.  And alcohol threatens to shorten his run of dominance with the bat.

The Tigers will enter 2010 with the division’s best rotation, including Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny, and Max Scherzer, and they will have plenty of firearms in the bullpen as well.  Whether they actually finish the year with the best rotation in the division depends on the quality of work of White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, and the health of all these flamethrowers the Tigers employ.

The team’s biggest offseason acquisition was Catcher Victor Martinez, a legitimate middle of the order bat, if not the best defensive catcher on the team (that would be second year man, Alex Avila).  Both figure to see more than 350 PAs this year.  CF Austin Jackson and RF Magglio Ordonez will make up two thirds of the Tigers starting outfield, and Brandon Inge returns as the regular third baseman, but the rest of the lineup will be a series of unimpressive platoons and week-to-week sketch ups by manager Jim Leyland.  Inge and Jackson are both excellent defenders, and supersub Don Kelly’s glove will play at any position, but this is not a great defensive team, and Martinez won’t do anything to solve those issues.  Put simply, the bats must rank near the top of the AL for Detroit to win the AL Central.

2) Chicago White Sox (projected finish: 86- 78)

The White Sox should be better than last year for the same reason the Royals should be better than last year.  They made one huge improvement at the weakest position on the team.  Some of the plate appearances that were engulfed by Juan Pierre this year will belong to Adam Dunn, who should make his home nicely in the bandbox that is US Cellular Field.  A second improvement should come from rookie 3B Brent Morel, who if not an offensive improvement, will certainly provide defensive improvement to Mark Teahen and Dayan Viciedo.

The rotation of John Danks, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, and Edwin Jackson offers the deepest rotation in the AL, with the most potential upside of any rotation west of Tampa/east of Oakland.  Peavy, Floyd, and Jackson all offer value that is more speculative than the established contributions of Buerhle and Danks.

Unquestionably, however, the strength of the White Sox in the infield gives way to one of the thinnest outfields in the majors.  Left to right, the starters are Pierre, Alex Rios, and Carlos Quentin.  Quentin can’t play the field very well, but the Dunn acqusition makes him a full timer out there.  Rios was above average in center last year, but is still stretched kind of thin in center.  He’d offer more defensive value in a corner.  Pierre at least won’t be playing any DH this year, and played a good left field last season, but it’s not a position his bat can handle.  Teahen should see playing time in both left and right field.

If the staff and bullpen goes through the expected development and has the Sox competing near the top of the league in most pitching candidates, the Sox could be big-name buyers at the deadline on an outfielder.  They should be in this race longer than the Tigers, but without additional help in the lineup, the White Sox are destined to come up short, and in a worst case scenario, could find themselves selling at the deadline.

1) Minnesota Twins (projected finish: 90-72)

The Twins remain one of the best teams in baseball.  They were able to retain key contributors Jim Thome and Carl Pavano from their free agent class.  There are only two troubling things about this Twins team: first, that Justin Morneau still isn’t asymptomatic from a concussion suffered last July.  Secondly, that without Morneau, the Twins will play a very, very watered down group of infielders, one that will be tough to win with.

The Twins have had a long standing issue with outfield defense.  Last year, the trio of Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young combined to produce -29 UZR (runs), a staggering figure for guys playing in three positions.  The trio is back this year.

Minnesota was able to mitigate that a bit with excellent infield defense from JJ Hardy, Danny Valencia, Nick Punto, Orlando Hudson, and a great first half with the glove from Morneau.  Of the five names, only Valencia is likely to be good to go on opening day.  Gone are Hardy, Punto, and Hudson.  Japanese signee Tsuyoshi Nishioka will take over at the keystone.  Alexi Casilla is sliding over to shortstop, the only position on the diamond where his bat profiles.  His glove may project there after all, but the Twins ask so much out of their infield defenders to make up for that outfield defense.  They also must rely on Denard Span to have another strong year with the glove in center.

The Twins might have jettisoned their role contributors while holding onto dead weight, such as Cuddyer.  That’s the concern with them.  But an offense that produced enough runs to be at the top of the AL last year — led by all-world catcher Joe Mauer — should pull off the same feat again with even greater ease this year.  The Minnesota pitching staff is unimpressive on paper, but very underrated as a group.  Joe Nathan returns in the closer role this year, strengthening the entire bullpen.

My Twins projection is depressed a bit not because the team won’t be improved at all, but because the White Sox, Royals, and Indians are all improving, and part of the effect of 94 wins by the Twins last year were simply poor in-division competition from teams that weren’t the Detroit Tigers.  The four game margin of victory in the AL Central probably understates how the Twins won’t have to make a deadline trade to win this division comfortably.

The arms race is on in the National League, although the participants aren’t exactly numerous.  It’s the Phillies, it’s the Brewers, and it’s everyone else.

Just a week after Cliff Lee re-joined the Philadelphia Phillies for nine figures of charity, the Kansas City Royals traded their ace, Greinke, to the Brewers for a package of players including OF Lorenzo Cain, RP Jeremy Jeffress, and SS Alcedies Escobar.  Greinke will make $27 million from the Brewers over the next two seasons before becoming a free agent in November of 2012.

It’s a no-brainer trade for the Brewers.  Some may question the wisdom of acquiring SS Yuniesky Betancourt in the same deal to be their starting shortstop: you now have to find a way to generate last year’s run production with Carlos Gomez in CF and Betancourt at SS.  That’s not going to be easy.  But with Greinke, the Brewers sport a rotation that rivals the Phillies for the best rotation in the National League.  They already had an ace-type in Yovani Gallardo, and Greinke gives the Brewers a pair of aces.  When you talk about having Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, you certainly have to think you have the best front-of-the-rotation in baseball.  Greinke and Gallardo, if nothing else, have to be in the same discussion.  The acquisition of Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays gives Milwaukee another front-line starter who, in the opinion of this writer, is better than National League-lifer Roy Oswalt.  While Randy Wolf is not going to provide the quality of Cole Hamels at his best, he’d be a no. 3 pitcher anywhere else.

Only the A’s and Giants may feature a rotation stronger than either the Brewers or the Phillies.  I don’t think the Rays or Twins or Tigers or White Sox — who all have strong and deep pitching rotations — quite qualify.  The edge for the Phillies over the Brewers this year will come by way of an established offense.  The Brewers are looking strong on offense again this year, but it’s a lot of speculative value: Prince Fielder should rebound, Mat Gamel and Casey McGahee should continue to produce.  Maybe Betancourt will hit more like he did in 2010 instead of his 2009 disaster season.  Gomez could still develop into a competent bat-handler.  2-6, the Brewers can absolutely clobber the baseball.  But this is not a great defensive team, and the Phillies are almost certain to be healthier than last year, even once you account for the fact that their lineup is aging.  The Brewers should be considered the favorite to win the NL Central in 2011, and in a playoff field, we’ll get to see the strength of another young, top-loaded rotation in baseball.

The other part of this trade is from the Royals perspective, where the haul received might only partially off-set what Greinke put the Royals through over the last five months.  This isn’t a particularly strong group of prospects.

What can be said in defense of this trade for the Royals is that 1) I firmly believe the timing was right: Greinke couldn’t pitch for the Royals again unless they were willing to let him walk at the end of the 2012 season in free agency.  2) If the Royals were going to trade with the prospect-depleted Brewers, they could not have done better than they did.  One exception is if the Royals had acted sooner and were able to acquire 2B Brett Lawrie, prior to him being dealt to the Blue Jays for Marcum.  The Royals recouped some value in terms of salary relief from Betancourt, saving $4 million of the $6 million he was owed.  In total, the Royals paid Betancourt $3 million for a season and a half, roughly breaking even on their investment.

I think, though, that the Brewers only made sense as a Royals trading partner from the Brewers perspective.  The Royals could have done better.  The centerpiece of this trade, if you want to call it that, is Escobar for Betancourt.  Big upgrade for the Royals, no doubt, but this was a Zack Greinke trade after all.  If this trade is to be profitable for the Royals, they will need to be able to look down on their division in 2013, and say that Escobar is an equal or better player to the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus.  I’m not optimistic.  Lorenzo Cain was a trade-able piece that the Brewers didn’t value very much, but knew the timing was right to sell on him.  He fills a need for the Royals, but doesn’t provide much value.

The Royals were able to grab the top two pitching prospects in the Brewers system, but the Brew Crew might actually be happy to be rid of the Jeremy Jeffress headache.  His upside appears to be a major league closer, leaving the Royals to gauge the future value of their current closer, Joakim Soria, by far their best pitcher.  Jeffress has two substance-abuse positive tests, and suspensions.  What strikes me about him is that it’s not clear that the Royals really even want him or think they can turn him into a star, but he’s the only player that would help get the Royals value.  The final piece is a really nice pitching prospect named Jake Odorizzi, who is about three years away from major league action.

Again, Escobar is THE prospect in this deal, and he fills the biggest need, and has likely the best upside.  He had a .288 on-base percentage for the Brewers last year.  That’s why this trade is less than exciting for the Royals.  I don’t doubt Escobar can be great someday, and I don’t doubt that he’s going to on-base over .310 this year.  But what the Royals lost was much more significant.  They traded their best player for some up the middle help.

I think, in the short term, this does break the Royals.  Billy Butler has three years remaining as a Royal, pending a contract extension.  He’s likely to remain in Royal blue though 2011, and then all bets are off after that.  He could be the next piece to fall.  I don’t see the Royals moving Joakim Soria anytime soon, as his contract sheds some light on a potential move to replace Greinke in the Royals rotation: there are 2012 bonuses built in for innings pitched, as well as games finished.  Plus, in trading Greinke now, the Royals were also smartly selling off some injury risk, which reports are were a fear of GM Dayton Moore in light of a season-ending David DeJesus injury that cost him a midseason trade last year.  The Royals have no such risk with Soria: most of his contract is built in in the form of contract options.  He’s team controlled through 2014, but the Royals can really stretch Soria out this year as a front line starter with very limited financial risk.

At the conclusion of the 2011 season, the Kansas City Royals will go practically overnight from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the most promising.  The total amount of prorated salary the Royals have committed to major league contracts after 2011 is $4.5 million.  That’s for three pitchers (Joakim Soria, Aaron Crow, Noel Arguelles).  They had $15.5 million more committed prior to this trade to Betancourt and Greinke.  A majority of the Royals roster in 2012 is expected to be of cheap, home-grown players.  This isn’t rebuilding: it’s starting from scratch.

Which is why Greinke wanted nothing to do with the Royals anymore.  Paraphrasing his own words, Greinke had already been through two Royals rebuildings (2004 under Allard Baird, and again in 2007 under Dayton Moore).  Both GMs gave it the old college try, but could not find improvement that would satisfy their ace.  It was the humane thing to trade him, and the Brewers are a great situation for Greinke.

The loser here is the Royals.  There would have been other trade partners who would have offered the Royals more value than Moore got from the Brewers.  I think the Braves had more to offer, and so did the Rangers, among others.  The Brewers gave Moore as much as he needed to be willing to deal his ace.  This won’t go down in history as an epically bad trade.  But the Royals didn’t need to avert a conflict with their star so much as they needed to finally win something.  They are not the winner in this deal.  Greinke is.

The MLB playoff system fascinates me.  Especially the divisional round.

So, you probably realize that the MLB regular season is unreasonably long.  It stretches for six straight months, with each team playing at least six times every week.  Every game matters in the sense that you just don’t know how it’s going to break at the end, whether or not a margin of victory is just a game, or is going to be 14 games.  Clearly though, no one is confusing the need to win every game you play as they would with a football season.  It’s more like a basketball season: if you have a bad day, whatever.  If you have a bad week: you may not be the team you thought you were.

Anyway, we do that for six months.  They play the all-star game “for keeps” even though the NL was unsuccessful in ever making up the gap until this year’s late comeback.  By the end, the vast majority of playoff teams are leveraging their leads in the division and legal 40-man enhanced rosters into a line-up made up of primarily backups.

Then, as you would imagine to be the case, we have eight of the best teams square off in short five-game series to determine who goes on to the ALCS, probably eliminating a couple of the best-teams-in-baseball in the process.

Obviously, this makes very little sense given the season-long ideals of baseball where the pressure isn’t supposed to be on every team every night to win, but rather, to be the best team in the division over the long haul.  For the Tampa Bay Rays, you have to prove over six months that you are more deserving of the top seed in the AL playoffs (and homefield advantage) than the two largest market franchises in all of baseball, Boston and New York.  As the seeding would have it, Texas needs just three wins in a preposter0usly-short five game series to make 162 games of Rays accomplishments completely irrelevant.

Generally speaking, the playoff system just doesn’t make a lot of sense in baseball.  If you have a playoff system, you already are accepting the trade off between having the best teams play in the World Series every year against the more-preferable revenue stream generated by more playoff baseball games.  There’s no reason to rehash the playoff debate.  They used to not have playoffs prior to the World Series, then they added them not because they didn’t think there was enough baseball games in a season already to determine who was the best, but because they could have a money-generating showcase between the best teams in the league.

The downside of that: the AL East race which could have been awesome was essentially meaningless.  The Rays won the division because they won more games than the Yankees.  It sure looks like the Yankees are going to be in the ALCS, while the Rays are going to end their season early than expected.  This is because…the Rangers have proven to be a much better team than the Twins through a week in October.  Cheer for our wonderful system!  I, for one, am glad we got that AL East race settled the proper way.

All of this brings me to the one series that doesn’t appear to be decided yet: the series between the injury-riddled Braves and the scoring-challenged Giants.  Playoff baseball has proven, to me at least, to be a different brand of baseball.  Intensity levels are higher in the playoffs, and it does seem to change the performance levels of many players.  That’s a fairly standard observation — and I wish not to pass judgment on the clutch-ness of any player versus another — but the Braves and Giants played a very epic playoff game yesterday that was a joy to watch.  It was a titanic 11-inning battle where every pitch mattered, even if play-by-play commentator Dick Stockton called the 11th inning same as he did the 2nd.

It was must-see TV.  And yet, I think in many ways, it showed why baseball just isn’t a “playoff-sport”.  In the game, Braves CF Rick Ankiel hit a towering game winning homer off of Giants reliever Ramon Ramirez, making Braves reliever Kyle Farnsworth the winning pitcher.  That’s an excellent reason of why these games aren’t any more valuable or harder to win than regular season games.  Those three players have just two things in common: they all played for the Dayton Moore/Trey Hillman Kansas City Royals, and they are no better than league average at their positions, and probably are worse.  I watched an entertaining game where both teams approached each play with increased intensity — but the quality of the game in extra innings was hardly up to par with baseball prior to the all-star break.  None of those players started this season with those teams, but they are the reason the series is 1-1 going back to Atlanta, instead of 2-0 with the Braves on the brink of elimination.  The Giants GW RBI in the first game was driven in by OF Cody Ross, a Marlin until the Giants through in a claim to block him from becoming a Padre (allegedly), and the Marlins jumped at the opportunity to dump salary.  These are the things playoff heroes are made of!

I guess my point is that there’s no reason we couldn’t have had naturally increased intensity back in September, re: division races.  It’s six months and 162 games.  Then playoffs, because we essentially waste the final month and a half from a marketing perspective.  Then the Rays get eliminated, and we lose that selling point.  Instead, MLB playoff marketers must convince Cowboy fans now that the Rangers are the hot ticket in town.  Good luck with that.

We all know the result of close playoff baseball games matters in a way that close regular season games do not, because a teams ability to win 11 out of 18 times against a playoff opponent is irrelevant if that opponent can win 4 of the first 5.  I can just safely point out that even with that necessary evil, having a five game series decide ANYTHING is ridiculous.  If seven-game series are used to determine champions, it makes absolutely no sense to play five game opening rounds.  I’m just surprised that the need for instant replay in playoff baseball has all of the relevant headlines when the system allows elimination in just three losses by teams who have 65-70 of those equivalent losses on the season.

Where is the dissatisfaction with such an insane playoff system, and why can’t I find any links?

Not one moment too soon, the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates leveraged the MLB trading deadline into a way to kick start a team-wide youth movement that pushes the bill of competition in future seasons.

Kansas City Royals

For the Royals, this was a cataclysmic change in direction from the start of the season, when their offseason signings added more than two years to the average batter’s age from a 2009 team that was far to disappointing for what was spent on it.  The Royals improved, significantly on offense, and they will likely score more than 700 runs this year, as they are just 246 runs shy with 57 games to go (4.3 runs per game average).  Their veteran signings were among their most productive hitters, combining homegrown talent such as Billy Butler and David DeJesus with productive veterans like Scott Podsednik, Wilson Betemit, Alberto Callaspo, and Jose Guillen.  The Royals led all of baseball in batting average up until this weekend (passed by the hated Twins, of all teams).

Batting average, aside from not being sustainable, also hid the fact that the Royals couldn’t hit the ball out of the ballpark (DeJesus and Butler have combined for just 16 HRs, with DeJesus to miss the rest of the season), and don’t walk.  Ever.  They also make more than a fair share of outs on the bases.  It was a nice offense while it lasted, but the very last thing the Royals needed to do was plug away for two more months with their veterans.  More than any other team in baseball (possible exception to the Astros) they need fresh blood.

Which is why it was so exciting that they were able to find takers for mid-level veterans such as Scott Podsednik (Dodgers), Rick Ankiel, and Kyle Farnsworth (Braves).  These players did not belong on the Kansas City Royals roster, and now all three will get an opportunity to join a pennant race instead of blocking younger players with the Royals.  Similarly, the Royals dealt Alberto Callaspo into a pennant race (Angels), but that trade was more of a move for what both teams needed immediately (the Royals needed a pitcher, the Angels REALLY needed to block Brandon Wood), and hardly a deal for the future.

Departures of Podsednik and Ankiel combined with a season-ending DeJesus injury have opened up spots on the roster for Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue.  Since being re-called, Gordon is slugging .429 (with a .270 on-base percentage), which would be a career best if 37 plate appearances were a whole season (they’re not).  Batting average watch: he’s at .212 now, and climbing.  Ka’aihue has one start this year (he went 1-for-4 with a single and a RBI), and figures to get his second tomorrow.  The Royals also acquired OF Gregor Blanco from the Braves, who’s got the standard speed-skill set, except he’s always walked a lot, and so his bat should help the Royals, even though he has no power.

The point is that the Royals have gone through this entire season looking like the poor man’s small market version of a veteran-laden team that doesn’t do the important things to compete.  Now, with this roster, pretty much every player on the team is under contract for next season, with two exceptions: utility man Willie Bloomquist, and OF/DH Jose Guillen, the final two veterans with expiring contracts.  With Gordon and Ka’aihue up, the Royals don’t have a single offensive player on the DL besides DeJesus.  This is the 2010 Royals offense, minus perhaps one free agent pickup in the offseason.  Top prospect Mike Moustakas should be ready for big league action next spring, so the only question remaining will be when the Royals want to start his service clock.  If they make a foray into the veteran market, it’s saying that they are willing to game his service clock by leaving the to be-21 year old in AAA until they get an injury, or obvious candidate to designate for assignment.

The Royals know they have a lot of questions to answer with a pitching staff that is aging quickly, has given up more than 5.0 runs/game this season and has strong questions for next year behind Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar.  Is Sean O’Sullivan more than just a swingman?  What of the will-he-or-won’t get surgery drama with Gil Meche?  Will he lock down the no. 3 spot in the rotation or is it up for grabs?  Then: Kyle Davies or Brian Bannister, which one can be non-tendered?  Top prospect Mike Montgomery’s arm fatigue in the middle of June took the pitching prospect most likely to reach the majors next year, and set him back a half-season.  Plus, 2009 pick Aaron Crow’s recent demotion has seemingly pulled him out of the running for a 2011 rotation spot.

By 2012, the Royals rotation should be Greinke, Hochevar, and three farm hands (with a surplus to boot), but the Royals have a spot or two to fill, and a one year veteran contract may make some sense.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates made two major deals at the deadline, both opportunistically buying for the future, and selling excess relief depth for prospects.  The smart move was to acquire catcher Chris Snyder for a trio of veterans: DJ Carrasco, Ryan Church, and Bobby Crosby. Those players will do little but help the Diamondbacks field a team for the rest of the year.  Snyder is instantly the largest contract on the Pirates, who with revenue sharing, aren’t exactly cash-strapped.

Snyder improves the Pirates at multiple positions.  CF Andrew McCutchen is a star, but the team’s second best player is Ryan Doumit, a league average hitter who is about as bad as one can be defensively and still be considered a big league catcher.  Snyder gives them a good defensive player behind the plate, a league average hitter to boot, and allows Doumit’s bat to go to first base and corner outfield to improve the Pirates at multiple positions for no cost.

The other important trade took closer Octavio Dotel, as the Pirates were able to lift RHP James McDonald from the Dodgers.  He might project towards the Buc’s rotation next year, though he’s been a valuable part of the bullpen for L.A. this year.  The Pirates would have liked to move LHP Paul Maholm as well, and their failure to do so could be their one blemish on this trade deadline.  The bullpen remains a strength for the Pirates, who have a long way to go in building a competent pitching rotation.

The Pirates also tried the veteran route this year, playing Akinori Iwamura and Crosby at second, but they’ve gotten a heckuva year from their 1st round pick in 2004, 2B Neil Walker, who leads the roster in OPS.  There appears to be no organizational solution at SS right now, where Ronny Cedeno is every bit as horrible as he ever was (.277 OBP), but without a giant offensive hole in the 8th spot, the Bucs are just a corner outfielder away from having a competitive offense in the National League.  More importantly, every player on the offense next year (save the duo of catchers) figures to be both young and cheap.

**** ****

Both the Royals and the Pirates have issues with their rotations to settle in the offseason, but both really showed other clubs how to leverage the trade deadline — and the desperation shown by various competitors – into free prospects and a way to give two months of free playing time with each other, and to give the talent evaluators all the time they need to be prepared to adjust the roster for next year.

It’s the first time in a long while either franchise has been a model for others, but perhaps this is the first step on the road back to respectability.

Things are getting ugly in Kansas City.

Actually, it’s not all bad for the Royals.  The team is — surprisingly — just 11 games under .500.  Most preseason projections would suggest that the team is just treading water at that point, but the Royals have at least supported their production up to this point.  They are actually underachieving their expected win total (RS-RA) by two games through June 8th, and at least currently are winning better than 40% of their games, something that they at least figure to be able to sustain over the season.  The team is getting better than expected production from most if not all of it’s regular hitters in a lineup that sits around the league average.  It’s been able to count on quality innings from Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, and Bruce Chen, of all people, and they’re pretty close from ridding the bullpen of it’s disaster relievers.

Still, the Royals are still at the point where they can only make national headlines once every fifth day, when Zack Greinke takes the mound.  And in 2010, every fifth game has turned out to be a disaster of the highest order for the struggling ballclub.

It’s hardly all Greinke’s fault.  The last time he could have potentially qualified for a win was May 18th at Camden Yards, when he gave up two solo homers to Luke Scott, but left that game with a 3-2 lead after the 7th inning.  Corey Patterson the hit a solo homer off of Blake Wood, and the Orioles went on to win the game.  That wasn’t the most recent time that Zack Greinke qualified for a quality start, but for all intents and purposes, the waters have been choppy ever since.  The Royals haven’t. scored. a run. with. Greinke. as the pitcher of record. since that day when he left with a lead after a quality start. Even though he chewed through most of the Orioles order without a lot of effort that day, I will qualify that as the beginning of his troubles, since he would have been incredibly fortunate to win a game against Baltimore in which he gave up two homers.

He lasted just 3 and a third innings against Colorado before a barrage of singles in the fourth knocked him from a game which began just fine (six of first seven batters retired).  He was credited with seven earned runs in a game that qualifies as his only disaster start of the last two years.  He was a little bit better at Boston the next week, earning a quality start against a quality lineup, but he was mostly fortunate that he was able to pitch out of trouble all night.  Of course, Greinke has always had a remarkable career-long ability to strand baserunners, so it’s when he starts to struggle with men on base that you start to worry about his psyche.

So last week, against California-LA Anaheim, Greinke allowed a season high 13 baserunners while gutting through six innings, and missing a quality start by a run.  He was able to pitch out of jams again, but couldn’t avoid the mammoth home run given up to Torii Hunter.  Things came to a head (hopefully) last night at Target Field, when Greinke allowed 9 more hits and five runs in just five innings, as the Twins had him laboring right from the start.

Greinke has been victimized by some really awful defense this year, usually in the form of Yuniesky Betancourt being unable to keep a slow rolling groundball on the infield to prevent a run, or an endless string of errors by infielders Betancourt, Alberto Callaspo, Mike Aviles, and Billy Butler.  That’s pushed his ERA higher than the mean, but truth be told, Greinke was probably playing with a worse defense last year when he won the Cy Young.  Of course, he was also playing with a worse offense, and well, this one is getting him just 2.1 runs per game of support.

The Royals’ pitching rotation has Greinke in a spot in between Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen where he absolutely needs to eat up innings and keep the bullpen fresh.  From April 21st through May 7th, Greinke made it through at least 7 innings each and every time out.  Since his May 7th outing at Texas, Greinke has gotten past the sixth inning only once, against the worst offense in the AL, Baltimore.  As recently as one month ago, Zack Greinke was just fine.  The next start, he struck out 8 Indians in 6 innings of work.  But from that point forward, the command of his crucial pitches — his “out” pitches, specifically — has slid immensely.

What’s remarkable about his stuff this year is that his movement is as good as it ever was.  His 2-seamer still looks electric on television.  The problem is that Greinke clearly has little feel for where the plate is, as he has been missing consistently with his fastball early in the count — his first pitch strike % is down slightly, but he’s almost never in 0-2 or 1-2 counts these days — and lefties are really starting to sit on that two seamer and drive it right out over the right field wall.  Greinke’s contact allowed percentages are remarkably out of line with career expectations, specifically, he’s never had any trouble missing bats outside of the zone at any point in his career, until now, when he’s getting contact on 75% of his swung on balls out of the zone.  If the movement is still there, and he’s still inducing ill-advised swings — which he is — why is Greinke giving up more hits and hard hit balls?

All roads lead to the same issue with command over his pitches.  Greinke’s struggling to sequence his pitches after the first one.  Whether he gets ahead of the hitter or not, he usually finds himself in 2-0 or 2-1 hitters counts.  Even if he happens to get ahead in the count 0-2 or 1-2, his out pitches are consistently being spoiled by foul balls, or hit back up the middle, running his pitch counts higher, earlier in games.  He threw 31 pitches in the first inning last night at Minnesota, giving up three runs, although he very nearly got out of the inning with no damage, getting a two out ground ball from Michael Cuddyer, that found a hole in Betancourt’s zone.  Zack’s ability to use the strike zone is evident in his still incredible strikeout to walk ratio, but those higher pitch counts mean more hittable pitches, and that in turn means more fly balls and deep fly balls, and living on the edge in pretty much every inning.

The Royals still have a player in Zack Greinke who is likely to give a quality start every time he takes the mound, which is what you want from your no. 1 starter.  Last year, the Royals were used to having so much more than just a no. 1 guy in Greinke.  Until they can start to give him more run support and pick him up to the point where he starts to command all four of his devastating pitches again, the Royals are probably going to have to live with a 3.5 run/9 Greinke who gets taken deep once or twice a game and struggles to get through 6 innings every night while limiting damage.  At the current rate of offense (i.e. taking the night off), that’s going to mean his record is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.  Hopefully, Zack Greinke comes out as stronger man and better pitcher on the other side of this disappointing season.

A quick tale about one of my favorite — and most average — players in baseball: Royals OF David DeJesus.  He’s just ordinary enough to stand out on a team full of flakes and clowns, like the Kansas City Royals.  He’s also quite good at baseball, while simultaneously being less valuable than pretty much every star in the game, and more valuable than any other Royal over the last six seasons.

The classic David DeJesus line features about a .360 on base percentage, and a .440 slugging percentage.  Quintessentially, his median career OPS season of .804 represents the expectation for an AL outfielder to be a long time everyday player.

You probably are familiar with the OPS+ statistic, an index that grades any OPS contextually against the expectation for the era and the home ballpark to put into perspective any wacky variance in OPS due to one of these two factors.  OPS+ tells us, that while DeJesus has been incredibly consistent in his production year to year, the actual value of his production has been anything but.  Check out this “post” steroid (and “juiced” baseball) era example, using DeJesus as a benchmark:

• In 2006, David DeJesus had an .810 OPS, and a 108 OPS+
• In 2008, DeJesus had an .818 OPS, and a 118 OPS+
• In (216 PAs) 2010, DeJesus has an .814 OPS, and a 123 OPS+

Is DeJesus appreciating with age?  Not really.  He’s the same player he always was.  All the OPS index is showing is that as DeJesus has remained the same perfectly balanced 290/360/440 hitter he has always been, the attrition rate of hitters around him has resulted in his production now approaching the top end of AL batters as opposed to the middle of the pack, where he has always been.  At least, the attrition rate would be one of the more logical explanations, but certainly not the only one.  Perhaps the balance of power is being swung back in the direction of the pitchers.  Maybe the emphasis that teams are putting on fielding in the last two offseasons is cutting down on the balls that get to the gaps.  Maybe baseball is moving back to a not-so-tightly-wound baseball to try to divorce itself from constant steroid allegations, which is dropping home run rates (this is almost certainly true, even if it’s not a primary reason for depressed offense).

There are other examples of depressed offense in 2010:

• In 2003, Magglio Ordonez had a .926 OPS and a 139 OPS+.  In 2010, it’s a .902 OPS and a 142 OPS+.
• In 2008, Zack Greinke sported a 3.47 ERA and a 126 ERA+.  This year, he has a 3.39 ERA and a 124 ERA+.
• Jim Thome’s .865 OPS in 2008 was good for a 123 OPS+, but his .860 this season has given him a 133 OPS+.
• In 2003, Travis Hafner had an .812 OPS and a 115 OPS+.  In his rebound 2010 season, his .809 is good for a 127 OPS+.
• Andy Pettite’s 2.39 ERA for Houston in 2005 gave him a career-high 177 ERA+, but in New York this year, his 2.62 ERA gives him a relatively unimpressive 155 ERA+.

What’s interesting about all those examples is that they are all AL players.  Does that mean NL players are being roughly unaffected?  Not exactly, although the effects of offensive depression aren’t as glaring on the senior circuit.  Brian McCann is maintaining a 120 OPS+ from 2009 into 2010, even though his OPS has dropped by 20 points.  Chase Utley’s OPS mode — .915 — has gone from 132 in 05 to 135 in 08 to 141 this season.  Albert Pujols had a 1.013 OPS as a rookie, and nine years later, has a .994 OPS today.  That’s taken him for a seven point increase in OPS+.  Brad Penny’s ERA is just a fraction higher now than it was six years ago, and his ERA+ has declined by 5 points compared to that 2004 season.

The AL average of 4.52 runs per game is down an unbelievable 3/10ths of a run from last year, and is at it’s lowest point since…1992.  NL runs, 4.42 per game, are on par with last year’s total, also the fewest since 1992, or, before the Colorado Rockies began playing in the NL.  It sure appears as if we’re entering another pitching/defense era where 3 or 4 runs are again a more common end game total than 6 or 7.  The evidence is clear, and that’s alright by me, and every pitcher in baseball.

At the conclusion of tonights games, all teams in major league baseball will have concluded their opening series.  And while there’s no meaningful player or team-specific information that can be dragged out of a three game sample (not to mention it’s too small of a sample for even mainstream columnists to react to), that doesn’t mean that there’s nothing that can be said for the first series of the baseball season.

Last night, the Royals, Pirates, and A’s all won extra inning thrillers, despite collectively being picked to finish in last place (the only thing I could think of that they had in common).  Kansas City and Pittsburgh have followed up this effort with crushing losses, but regardless, the difference in each team’s positioning shouldn’t be understated.  In July, the outcome of these games will be basically irrelevant.  But because of those extra inning wins: the A’s open up their 2010 season by jumping out ahead of the AL’s most competitive division, the Royals narrowly avoid a crippling 0-3 start by the skins of their teeth (with the Red Sox coming to the K tomorrow for 3 games), and the Pirates are out in front of the NL Central…a division they could win if they are better than expected.  The action provided late Wednesday night could have helped to reinforce popular preseason opinion if those games had broke differently, instead, it now challenges analysts to question what they might have thought to be true.

So, what’s with the Mariners and the Dodgers, why aren’t they beating inferior opponents?  Well, probably nothing.  Three games in baseball don’t mean much of anything, at least from the favored-panic perspective.  Six or seven games?  Now you’re talking about 4% of the season.  In the scheme of a six month season, April statistics mean next to nothing, so a fraction of April is irrelevant, but there is never a good time for a perceived contender to underachieve.  When the Detroit Tigers lost their first seven games in 2008, after being projected to win or finish just out of first in the central, that seven game sample was not considered meaningless.  It’s not a probable outcome that a good baseball team will lose even six consecutive games at any point during the season, much less when everyone is healthy.  Baseball is not supposed to be a game where one game can ruin a season, not really even in the playoffs (exception: play-in games), but you try to find me a sport where a catastrophic week and a day or two doesn’t completely change a team’s prospectus.

The point is this: for some perceived contenders, there will be added pressure to play like contenders this upcoming weekend.  You know, in the middle of April.  That, I think, is what makes baseball more like the NFL (exciting start-to-finish dependence on winning results), than the NBA (good teams get high seeds, bad teams can wait until March to kick it into gear).  Four playoff spots per league help that.  A division can’t be won in April, or May, or June, but it can certainly be lost.