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Josh Freeman has already come a long way from his up-and-down 2009 season. This past week, he flashed onto all the highlight reels with late bullets down the sideline to Mike Williams and Michael Spurlock to set up a field goal in the 24-21 win over the Bengals. Are these plays just another flash, or will we see some sustained success out of Freeman this year?

Across most metrics, Freeman has vastly improved his game this year. After reaching seven yards per attempt in only half of his games in 2009, Freeman is averaging 7.1 YPA this year while completing just under 60% of his passes. His worst game came against Pittsburgh, but he still managed to complete 64.5% of throws. Freeman now lies at 13th among NFL passers in YPA and has most improved in the interception department. After throwing 20 interceptions in 2009 in less than 300 attempts, Freeman has so far only thrown three in 116 attempts.

Freeman has excelled in the Bucs new offensive system. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson implemented a version of the west coast offense that implemented a few more downfield throws and vertical routes. Freeman’s big arm and speed have been paramount to his success. Through the first four games, Freeman has managed to rush for 114 yards on only 12 attempts. He also has used his legs to extend plays and find his receivers, particularly Kellen Winslow. In terms of efficiency, Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic shows that Freeman has been 9.8% above average in the passing game. If you need a further seal of approval, Greg said in his Week 3 Tale of the Tape that Freeman has continued to impress, even though he has gotten away with a few mistakes.

The competition has not been soft, either. Freeman hasn’t come up against a defense like the New York Jets he faced in 2009 when he went 14/33 for 93 yards, but all of the Bucs’ opponents rank highly in interceptions and opponent YPA except for the Browns.

Still, the Bucs are playing it safe with Freeman. He has thrown roughly 29 times per game, which ranks in the bottom third, and is rarely asked to pass when the Bucs are ahead. Unfortunately, the supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired. Carnell Willliams has been an ineffective rusher, but increased carries for Ernest Graham and the explosive LaGarrette Blount are on their way.

The Bucs wide receivers have been flashy, but not the most reliable options on the field. Despite rookie Mike Williams’ spectacular grabs, he still only catches 58% of balls thrown to him and only gains about 7.2 yards per target. Michael Spurlock, Sammie Stroughter and Arrelious Benn have all made some plays but will need some time to develop with Freeman. Freeman’s best assets in the passing game by far have been Kellen Winslow and Ernest Graham. Winslow has gained over eight yards per target while Graham has been instrumental in the passing game, catching ten balls for nearly 100 yards while scoring a touchdown. Both players are critical tools in the west coast system, and Freeman should excel if Williams can be refined into a reliable playmaker.

Freeman is a big reason for the Bucs 3-1 record and will also be a determining factor in their 2010 success given the state of the running game. Luckily for him, he won’t be facing too many tough challenges until a Week 12 game in Baltimore. I think the early signs indicate that Freeman will continue to improve with his team over the year, although a few bumps in the road would not be surprising. While I can’t say ‘Pro Bowl’ yet, it may come sooner than I and many others thought before.

In case you didn’t hear, running back Marshawn Lynch was traded from Buffalo to Seattle yesterday for a couple of draft picks. Pete Carroll may have some big plans for Lynch, signaling a shakeup in the fantasy world. Here’s who is affected:

Marshawn Lynch
Lynch gains some job security and will likely get a featured role in the offense. He isn’t going to be a big receiver, but he will get the yardage and is a good bye week fill-in.

Justin Forsett
Forsett has been a poor rusher this year, but is still great in the passing game. He will probably spell Lynch a little bit and get some goal-line opportunities, but is only really worth a start if you are desperate.

Fred Jackson
Jackson will benefit most from this move as it clears out the backfield and leaves his only competition to be the struggling C.J. Spiller who will get the 3rd down touches. Jackson will be a solid second running back for any fantasy owner and is only owned in half of Yahoo leagues at the moment.

C.J. Spiller
This trade is good for Spiller, but won’t pay too many dividends unless there is an injury to Fred Jackson. Despite his preseason status, his value is probably only as a handcuff to Jackson.

For any fantasy owner who picked up Patriots’ wide receiver Brandon Tate after the Randy Moss trade, the subsequent trade for Deion Branch might have caused a little bit of frustration. How much will Branch hurt Tate’s new found value and are either worth owning or starting in your league?

I’ll start off by saying that Brandon Tate was likely on his way to a solid campaign even without the Randy Moss trade. In the four games the Patriots played, he had been targeted 14 times and managed to catch the ball at a great 79% rate. We saw in the Week 4 Dolphins matchup that he was beginning to get more featured in the offense.

Branch has had a similarly successful campaign in Seattle, catching 72% of the 18 balls thrown his way, although for much lower average yardage. However, in prior years Branch has seen his average reception drop below ten yards and his catch rate stuck below 60%. Back in his career year in 2005, he had a solid average per catch at 12.8 yards but still only caught 62% of balls thrown his way. Branch has the history of playing with the Patriots and Tom Brady, but keep in mind that he is not the type of receiver that can replace a Randy Moss. He also will not directly replace Brandon Tate as they are different types of recievers — 4 inches separate the two. At 31 years old, Branch is also not the young receiver he was in his early Patriot days.

Fantasy owners are correct in their valuation of Branch and Tate; Tate is owned in 54% of leagues while Branch is only owned in 25%. Despite that, Branch has been the most added player this week after Danny Amendola, signaling some optimism.

We all know that Belichick and the Patriots are great talent evaluators, and if Branch has truly declined, then he won’t see the field enough to take many opportunities from Tate. Even if Branch proves to be a good receiver for the Patriots, Tate should still continue to grow as a receiver and get chances, especially for touchdowns. With the questionable backfield in New England, we could easily see Tate, Welker and Branch all on the field at the same time soon.

At this point, Branch is a purely speculative pickup who could give a few points in a bye week, but won’t be scoring many touchdowns. Tate, on the other hand, could be a solid third receiver option and is a potential star in a Week 16 fantasy championship game when he faces Buffalo.

It’s been called the year of the pitcher, and amongst rookies in the first round of this year’s playoffs, it has been just that. Of the 18 rookies who have played in the playoffs (Greg Golson not included), seven are hitters, yet only catchers Buster Posey and John Jaso make my top ten in terms of performance. Here’s the list.

1. SP Madison Bumgarner – 6.0IP, 1-0, 5K, 1BB, 2ER
The just-turned 21 year-old will be able to enjoy some adult beverages after the Giants won their first playoff series since the Bonds and Baker days. Bumgarner was up to the difficult task of pitching the clinching game and battled all the way through, allowing only a 2-run home to Brian McCann. Not coincidentally, McCann was the only player the Giants couldn’t get out all series. Not only did Bumgarner win Game 4 for the Giants, but he also allowed for Tim Lincecum to pitch in the NLCS opener against Roy Halladay. At the very least, baseball fans should appreciate Bumgarner for allowing us to see that matchup.

2. SP Wade Davis – 5.0 IP, 1-0, 7K, 3BB, 2ER
Wade Davis matched Bumgarner’s performance and allowed the Rays to stick around in the series for a rematch of Game 1. He got into some trouble in the 6th inning, but who hasn’t Nelson Cruz hit this year?

3. C Buster Posey – .375/.444/.438 1 SB
Posey clearly was the better of the young rookie position players in the NLDS. He had a solid hitting series without hitting the ball out of the ballpark, called a bunch of great games for the pitching staff and was involved in the most controversial play of the series where he ended up scoring the winning run. It’s exciting to have such a good young catcher in the NLCS.

Jonny Venters

4. RP Jonny Venters- 5.1 IP, 7K, 0BB, 0ER
Venters followed up his great regular season campaign with 5 1/3 solid innings in relief for the Braves in a very close series. If only the Braves could hit a little better would these innings have been a bit more consequential.

5. RP Travis Wood – 3.1 IP, 3K, 1BB, 0 ER
Wood came in for the struggling Edinson Volquez in Game 1 for the Reds and shut down the Phillies for a few innings. Unfortunately for Wood and the Reds, Roy Halladay ended up throwing a no-hitter.

6. RP Craig Kimbrel – 4.1 IP, 7K, 1BB, 1ER
Yes, another relief pitcher. Kimbrel had a few strong outings and his earned run was given up after he left by Michael Dunn. He put in 2 strong innings in the Braves 5-4 win in Game 2.

7. C John Jaso – .300/.364/.300 1RBI
Jaso caught games 2 and 3 for the Rays and had a key RBI single in the 8th inning of Game 3 to put the Rays ahead.

8. RP Logan Ondrusek – 2.0IP, 0K, 1BB, 0ER
Ondrusek was yet another reliever who put on a good show in the playoffs. He followed up Travis Wood for the Reds in the Game 1 loss to the Phillies.

9. RP Aroldis Chapman – 1.2 IP, 1K, 0BB, 1 HBP, 3R, 0ER
Chapman impressed in the matchup everyone was waiting for against Ryan Howard, blowing some smoke by the slugger. Unfortunately, he pitched one a little too close to Chase Utley before that, causing the umpire to award him first base. The Reds defense imploded a bit after the Howard strikeout with some bad play out of Scott Rolen at third base and Jay Bruce in right. Chapman could have helped his case by missing a few more bats that inning, but it’s hard to completely blame him for the Game 2 loss. He followed that up nicely with a Game 3 8th inning appearance, but the Reds couldn’t salvage a game in the series.

10. RP Michael Dunn – 1.1IP, 2K, 0BB, 0ER
Dunn had a decent series for the Braves. He came in and provided some nice relief for Tim Hudson, but gave up Craig Kimbrel’s earned run in Game 3 on a soft line drive by Aubrey Huff.

11. RP Neftali Feliz – 1.1 IP, 2K, 3BB, 1ER
Feliz has been a tad shaky in the playoffs. He came in during a low-leverage appearance to secure a win in Game 1, and gave up a home run to Carl Crawford to extend the lead in Game 2.

12. 3B Danny Valencia – .222/.273/.333 2 RBI
Valencia had a few nice hits, but didn’t have a great series as the Twins got swept by New York in quick fashion.

13. 1B Mitch Moreland – .200/.200/.400 1 RBI
Moreland took over for Jorge Cantu at first base for the Rangers starting in Game 2 and smacked a double in Game 3 followed by an RBI double in Game 4 and a late 9th inning double in Game 5.

14. RF Desmond Jennings – .000/.000/.000 1R
Jennings entered Game 3 as a pinch runner and scored from second on a single for the Rays and also went hitless in a couple of at bats in Game 2.

15. RF Domonic Brown – .000/.000/.000 1R
Brown pinch hit for Roy Oswalt in Game 2 and scored a run after grounding into a force out.

16. RF Jason Heyward – .125/.176/.125 8K in 17 PA
Heyward had a dreadful series. He often looked like he was trying to do too much in what many were expecting to be his coming out party. Compared to Chipper Jones’ first postseason appearance, Heyward doesn’t even appear to be on the same planet. His lack of production is a big part of the reason why the Giants are in the NLCS.

17. RP Alexi Ogando – .1IP, 0K, 0BB, 0ER
Ogando only pitched a third of an inning for the Rangers, so it’s hard to be too tough on him. However, he did give up an RBI double to B.J. Upton in the Rangers’ Game 3 6-3 loss.

18. 2B Brooks Conrad – .091/.091/.091 3 errors
While I said that Heyward was a big part of the reason the Giants were able to advance, Conrad is an even bigger reason. He didn’t hit, made mistakes in the field and had to be benched in Game 4. Conrad needs to buy Bobby Cox a beer after that mess.

Last night, the Giants rolled into the NLCS behind solid starting pitching of Madison Bumgarner and the great hitting of midseason acquisition Cody Ross. Tim Lincecum, just coming off a 2-hit shutout performance in Game 1, would have been available for Game 5 if needed. Fortunately for the Giants, they can now save him for a NLCS matchup against Roy Halladay. Simply put, the plan worked perfectly.

The debate over whether to go with Lincecum or Bumgarner was framed as just that; should Tim Lincecum pitch on three days rest or should we trust in the rookie? Actually, the choice that a manager is making is whether the extra days rest is worth the drop off from the second starter to the fourth starter. In the case of the Giants, this is the drop from Matt Cain to Madison Bumgarner. This is because the Game 1 starter will pitch again in the series no matter what, and bumping up Lincecum doesn’t increase the amount of games you can get out of him, only the amount you can get out of Matt Cain.

But what about the advantage of wrapping up the series a game early? Typically, you’d like the extra day off to help reset your rotation, but if the ace of the staff is pitching Game 4, he may not be able to go in Game 1 (depending on scheduling and the rest of the rotation) and thus won’t be able to pitch in three NLCS games if needed (Games 1, 4 and 7). The lack of a fifth game may rest the bullpen a little more, but the time off between rounds is enough where bullpens can be reset.

On the other hand, the advantage of going with a fourth starter in the opening round is one I’ve already mentioned; the ace of the staff can pitch in three championship series games if needed. Also, the pitcher is better positioned to open up the World Series in Game 1 and pitch three games there if the NLCS/ALCS wraps up in less than seven games. If the division series goes to five games, as is the case in the Rays and Rangers series, the team is just about as out of luck as they were going with the ace in the fourth game. In the case of Cliff Lee, though, the decision was already made considering his unwillingness to throw on three days rest.

So when should one consider going with a pitcher on three days rest? Well, as always, the pitcher needs to be just as effective on three days rest as four days, otherwise you are wasting a potential productive outing. The other condition is that the second starter is significantly better than the fourth starter. Think back to the old Diamondbacks World Series teams and you had just that with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson being co-aces. The teams who fit the bill this year were the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, and both opted for a three man rotation despite the decision being irrelevant by the end.

However, it could be plenty relevant for the Giants as the next series could easily go to seven games and us fans could be treated to a possible third showdown of the Cy Young winners.

Each week we will try to take a look at some struggling players in fantasy football and whether they are just slumping or worthy of dumping. This week will take a broader look at those who have raised some questions over the course of the season.

The Slumpers

Joe Flacco

Flacco has not been a terrible quarterback this year, but he also has not met expectations considering the offseason additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Both Flacco’s yards per attempt and completion percentage are down, but the Ravens are still putting the ball in the air a lot. Given the late acquisition of Houshmandzadeh and the decline of Derrick Mason, it may take a little more time for Flacco to gain a rapport with his new receivers. Despite the shortcomings, his offensive efficiency measured by DVOA is still strong, diminishing any reason to be concerned. Four of his five interceptions came in the week 2 game against the Bengals and he has posted over 7.6 yards per attempt while averaging over 30 throws per game since then. Given his strong track record, Flacco should break out in coming weeks and start putting up some big points consistently. He is currently owned in 87% of Yahoo leagues and could be made available coming off a no-TD performance in a heavy bye week.

Ronnie Brown

Ronnie Brown has only struggled in terms of fantasy statistics this year. This is mostly due to a lack of goal-line opportunities and his current situation splitting carries with Ricky Williams. There are reasons to be optimistic about Brown going forward; he got more involved in the passing game last week, he has still managed a high YPC and DVOA in 2010, and Ricky Williams has been not quite as good in the same timeframe. Brown also has the lone touchdown amongst the running backs and will probably start receiving a larger portion of the carries in weeks to come as Tony Sparano recommits to the run game. He should have a great week 5 against a banged up Packer team as the Dolphins could be playing much of the game with the lead.

Michael Crabtree

Michael Crabtree is finally a year into his NFL career and is starting to show some signs of life for the hyped but winless 49ers. Crabtree has not been amazing this year, but there is a reason to be optimistic going forward aside from his talent. For one, the 49ers should continue passing as Frank Gore has put up some pretty brutal rushing performances. Also, Crabtree has started to become more of a focal point in the offense after only mustering seven catches in the first three weeks. He has since followed up with five and nine catches and found the end zone against Philadelphia. Frank Gore has caught 33 balls in only 5 games, so some of those checkdowns could easily become points for Crabtree owners. While now out of a slump, Crabtree’s stock may be low as Alex Smith has inspired no one and the 49ers are fading into irrelevance. In Yahoo leagues, Crabtree is only owned by 75% of teams and could be available early this week. He is one of the hotter waiver wire players, but could be overlooked by owners who see Roy Williams, Danny Amendola and Steve Johnson in free agency.

The Dumpers

Dwayne Bowe

Fantasy owners may still have some high hopes for Bowe considering his big numbers in 2008. A lot of people may put the blame on quarterback Matt Cassel and expect some improvement as the season goes on. Unfortunately, Bowe appears to be heading in the wrong direction. This was made evident in Sunday’s game against the Colts where he dropped a pass in the end zone and followed it up with another drop on the next play. Bowe has pretty awful numbers thus far and evidence shows he probably won’t improve. If you look at his 2008 numbers, they mostly came as a result of being targeted 157 times. With the run-first style of the 2010 Chiefs featuring Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, any number of targets near that amount is extremely unlikely. Any success for Bowe is not really a matter of regaining form, but somehow convincing Todd Haley to invoke a strategy that would lose football games. If you are one of the 82% of people in Yahoo leagues who owns Bowe, consider trading him to somebody who didn’t see Sunday’s game or who has been in a cave since 2008.

Jay Cutler

When on the field, Cutler has had a great year in most metrics. Even with the abysmal turnover numbers in 2009, he still had a plethora of touchdown passes. The main issue with Cutler moving forward will be his offensive line  and his concussion. Most reports are that Cutler will return in week 6 against Seattle and the Bears passing game should improve exponentially over Todd Collins’ performance. Nevertheless, the offensive line is even more of an issue with Edwin Williams and J’Marcus Webb getting starts as part of Lovie Smith’s new accountability program. Accountability is nice, but pass protection would be even better. It’s a high likelihood that Cutler could miss more time this year as he is forced to stand behind a bad line in the Martz system. This past week also was a sign of a desire to run the football more often and get offseason acquisition Chester Taylor involved more in the offense. Cutler probably still has a lot of fantasy value, but if you are thinking playoffs, remember his week 15 and 16 matchups at Minnesota and at home against the New York Jets. If you have a good backup like Kyle Orton on your roster, consider dumping Cutler for some help elsewhere.

Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson hasn’t exactly slumped this year, except by his own standards and in terms of early DVOA rankings. However, there are some big signs that Johnson could be in a for a slowdown reminiscent of some of his early-season struggles. Overall, Johnson’s YPC is way down to 4.3 and he is coming off 358 carries in 2009. Johnson has received less than 20 carries in three contests thus far, something which only happened once in his final ten games of 2009. Johnson has also put the ball on the ground 3 times this year and could be a classic sell-high candidate considering the lack of performance of many other top picks. If you can take advantage of this sky-high value, then go for it, but otherwise hope that he continues chugging out those touchdowns.

Editor’s Note: This week, Brian is taking over the Friday Night slot at LiveBall Sports with a piece featuring proprietary research on the relationship between splitting carries and rushing efficiency — Greg

One nugget of conventional wisdom in football is that splitting carries between running backs will improve the overall running game by resting players, exploiting defensive weaknesses and keeping the opposing team off-guard. At least anecdotally, this season has seen fewer prominent featured backs and much more situations where players are splitting carries. The basic analysis in this article will not debunk or support that idea — nor should we seek such an absolute rule as teams differ in their philosophy and personnel and the landscape of the game is constantly changing.

To try to answer the question posed in the title, I compared the percentage of running back carries that went to the primary running back with the primary back’s DVOA so far through the 4 weeks of the season. This is an inherently flawed approach as injuries, opponents, lack of defensive adjustments and random variance have all added a lot of noise to the data. Nevertheless, any conclusions or hypotheses made can be looked at over a larger time frame and tested yet again to try to gain some understanding.

Results
Below is a chart where the featured back’s DVOA is plotted against the percentage of carries that back has received of his team’s total running back carries.

As expected, there is no clear trend line in one direction or there other. However, we can see four out of ten running backs who carry the ball above 75% of the time have a significantly negative DVOA below -10%. Of the ten backs that have received over 75% of their team’s running back carries, only 4 have been showed a positive DVOA. Of the other 22 teams who split carries more evenly, only two have a DVOA below -10% with eight performing at below average levels. Clearly, there is nothing that says a back who is featured prominently is bound to fail, but there is a slight trend. To gain a little more insight, we can look more closely at three groups I will call High Performers, Workhorses, and Duds.

High Performers
For the sake of this analysis, we’ll call the high performers any featured back with a higher than 20% DVOA on the year. The four who fit the criteria this year are Arian Foster, LaDainian Tomlinson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mike Tolbert. Not exactly the list anyone would expect before the season started, eh? Here are their respective share of the carries and DVOA:

It is interesting that, of the four, three were relatively unknowns going into this year and one was anything but unknown. Since we are so early into the season, there are a couple of explanations aside from the low workloads. One, these players “snuck up” on defenses who have not yet adjusted or prepared properly for these running backs. Two, since we are so early into the season, there is a high chance of statistical noise, especially considering the less-featured backs have relatively few carries. In either explanation, a look back into this relationship later in the season will be highly beneficial.

The Workhorses
We’ll call the workhorses any backs with over 80% of their team’s running back carries. So far this year, there have been seven such running backs: Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore and Cedric Benson. This list is a bit more familiar names, but the performance thus far has been lacking:

The big surprise in this group is the twitter apologizing Chris Johnson who is coming off a huge workload of 354 carries and 50 receptions. Despite his 2,000 yards in 2009, he has been quite awful in terms of DVOA this year. While Cedric Benson had a lesser workload while still eclipsing 300 carries, he also was not the same rusher that Johnson was last year. It would be easy to conclude that splitting carries can improve performance on a multi-year basis due to player rest as there is also much work done on the impact of workload on a player. However, we may also see a bit of a trend that may correct itself over the course of this season as coaches feel pressure to give their prior season’s high performers a significant chunk of playing time. Once again, a look-in later in the season can give us a better look at the impact of a lot of carries.

The Duds
Finally, we get to look at the awful peformers thus far in the 2010 season who have posted a DVOA below -20% while receiving the most carries on their team. This year, those players have been Chris Johnson, who we have already looked at, Brandon Jackson, Carnell Williams and Matt Forte.

Here, we have a wide range of situations and level of carries. Johnson is the sole workhorse while Jackson is the only back sharing nearly 50% of carries. The best explanation for Forte and Jackson’s numbers is that they are simply not good rushers or are in terrible running environments. Last year they each respectively posted a -15.5% and -15.8% DVOA indicating that no amount of time splitting will make them into good performers. Carnell Williams was not so bad last year and significantly split carries, but we could be seeing his decline, some statistical variance or just a bad few weeks. The word is that he will start splitting carries this week, which will allow us to yet again look in later in the season and gain some insight.

Conclusions
On the surface, there appears to be evidence of a negative impact of a large workload on performance for running backs. Any evidence of splitting carries disrupting the ‘flow’ and hurting performance is not apparent at this time. Some backs, such as Adrian Peterson, have been resilient enough to continue a high level of play despite receiving a great deal of the carries for their team. A deeper look into this relationship later in the season as well as an analysis of the 2009 season will explore some of the issues and ideas raised in this article.

To most Mets fans delight, Kiko Calero was signed to a minor-league deal that could earn him up to $1.5 million.  Many across the internet including those at Fangraphs and the Hardball Times have speculated on why he didn’t sign earlier. Naturally, the conclusion was that there were some rather large concerns about the health of his arm and shoulder. Still, most thought that the risk was more than worth the small cost he was commanding in the market and any team who landed him would get a ‘steal’. Well, the Mets seem to have inked a solid reliever to a rather small contract. Calero has a career 9.6 K/9 and 132 ERA+, and if he performs near that level for a good portion of the season, he will easily be worth his value. Nevertheless, the Calero situation has shone light on the greater reliever market which helps explain the relative lack of interest.

Relief Pitcher as a Position

In today’s major leagues, there are two primary roles which garner a lot of money and attention, the closer and the left-handed setup man. A player who can fill either of these roles effectively and has historically proven the ability to do so will likely earn a larger amount of money than other relief pitchers. While Calero has been good, his ‘stuff” isn’t terribly impressive and probably keeps him from being considered a closer candidate.  Additionally, the role of a bullpen ‘anchor’ is often given a slight premium, although these players are in many cases insurance policies for the current closer.

Look around the league this offseason and you’ll see some examples of this. John Grabow got a 2-year $7.5 million deal, Jose Valverde landed a 2-year $14 million contract, and Fernando Rodney got $11 million over two years. Each of these players is left-handed or has shown the ability to consistently get saves in the past.

The Age Factor

Calero is 35 years old. At that age, some decline is likely, especially given the fact that 2009 was his best year.  But the concern about his age goes beyond just the projected 2010 performance. For players with an injury, the potential payoff of a successful and healthy season is not just in the current year, but in a future contract. For Calero, there is less of a chance that he will be healthy and productive at age 36, 37 and 38, lowering the potential return for taking such a risk.

The Utility of the Back of the Bullpen

While a strong left hander, a closer and another ‘anchor’ are important bullpen ‘positions’ for a lot of teams, the rest of the bullpen often has a different shape. Teams would like to employ cheap and home-grown options and often have the choice of many young relievers and future starters who need major league experience. Once again, this goes beyond the current season, but also has an eye on the future. A reliever who doesn’t fill the critical roles in a bullpen is taking up space which could be used to develop arms that can pay huge dividends later on. If an older reliever becomes ineffective over the course of a season, they are often ‘stuck’ using him and cannot replace him without a release. It’s interesting to point out that the new Calero contract allows for him to be sent to the minor leagues freely.

Conclusions

These three factors show that the reasons for the lack of interest in Calero can be explained not just by injury, but by market forces as well. Some may argue, and with a lot of merit, that some of the valuations such as the ability to ‘close’ are not really indicative of the player’s value. For the most part, I agree.  Calero was a great deal for the Mets in 2010, and should solidify their bullpen greatly. For those wondering why he came cheap,  it can best be attributed to arbitrary distinctions amongst relievers in the market, a scope beyond 2010 (despite the fact that the contract is only for one year), and as many have said before, the injury risk.

The Chicago Cubs are far from a young team at the moment.  As currently constructed, Geovany Soto is the only everyday starter who will be under the age of 29 at season’s end.  However, for the first time in a while, the Cubs appear to have a  relatively strong minor league system with some talents that could contribute in the near future.  In addition, several contract expirations will force a decision of the part of new ownership and possibly change the face of the team.

Who Could Be Leaving

It seems like Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee have been stationed at the corners for a decade.  Over the years, we’ve seen Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella try to squeeze any productive left handed bat between them in the lineup whether it be Jacque Jones, Kosuke Fukudome, Jeromy Burnitz or Milton Bradley.  While these players have come and gone or changed roles, Lee and Ramirez have been a consistent duo.  Derrek Lee bounced back from a rough 2008 to to put together his best year since his ’05 season in 2009.  The bad news is, he’ll be 35 by the end of this season when his contract expires.  Looking forward, years like 2008 look a lot more likely than 2009.

For Ramirez, he has a large player option for 2011 with a mutual option in 2012.  He took a hometown discount when he signed the extension and likely won’t fetch any more on the open market.  Since arriving, he has been the most consistent contributor for the Cubs, even maintaining a .905 OPS last year despite coming back from a shoulder injury.  Ramirez is 3 years younger than Lee and will more than likely outlast him on the north side.

Additionally, Kosuke Fukudome is signed through 2011 and will be turning 34 around the beginning of the 2012 season.  Unless he shows continued improvement in his early 30′s over the next couple of years, the initial 4-year deal will likely be the only one he receives from the Cubs.

Besides those big three players, Ryan Theriot is on a year-to-year basis, recently losing the first arbitration hearing the Cubs have had in nearly two decades.  Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot are by no means long-term solutions, and Marlon Byrd just signed a 3 year deal.  As for Alfonso Soriano, he’s not going anywhere.

On the starting pitching front, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano are locked up for a good while, Randy Wells has just a year of service time accrued and Ted Lilly is finishing up the last year of what’s been a very productive deal (2007 playoffs aside).

What’s to Come

If you haven’t heard of Josh Vitters, Starlin Castro or Jay Jackson, they are the hottest prospects in the Cubs’ system. Castro has held his own at age 19 in AA ball, but will need at least a year to work on his defense and develop some power before anyone can consider playing him full-time at shortstop. Josh Vitters has displayed a great swing with tremendous power in A ball, but leaves a lot to be desired with his defense and BB rate. Jay Jackson has been outstanding in the high minor leagues, registering a 10.1 K/9 and 2.95 ERA over his brief minor league career. One also has to mention former top pick Andrew Cashner who excelled in his first minor league shot at starting. Still though of by many as a future reliever, he is said to be working on a changeup and will be starting in the minors this year. Another former top pick, Tyler Colvin put together a solid ’09, but has the same problem as Vitters with a low BB rate.

Further down the line are players like shorstop Hak-Ju Lee and outfielder Brett Jackson who had great seasons in 2009. Both show tremendous skills and have a strong chance to reach the majors. Other players like SP Chris Carpenter, SP Chris Archer, OF Kyler Burke and 2B Ryan Flaherty could also contribute down the line.

The Plan

The first decisions will have to be made at the end of the 2010 season.  With Derrek Lee’s contract expiring and Josh Vitters close, but not completely ready for the majors the Cubs have a few options.  Lee is entering into a free agent class of first basemen that includes Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and Lance Berkman to name a few.  Because of this and the current market, Lee could be brought back at a large discount in a 2-year deal.  However, another possibility could lie in what becomes of Chad Tracy or Micah Hoffpauir this year.  If either show the ability to produce, they could be used as stop-gaps while Vitters develops fully.  While some might say this is a risky proposition, it is equally risk to expect continued production out of a first baseman in his mid-30′s.  With Vitters’ arrival in either 2011 or 2012, the Cubs could begin Aramis Ramirez’s transition to first base, unless Vitters does not improve at third in which case it would become his home.  Xavier Nady is another possible stop-gap solution who will likely come cheaper, with less years attached, and more positional flexibility if he is signed beyond 2010.

If Ryan Theriot becomes too expensive, the team can also go with current AAA shortstop Darwin Barney, or go with Andres Blanco in the short run if he shows improvement.  Both could produce at Theriot levels at younger ages without blocking Starlin Castro’s arrival.

At the same time, Ted Lilly’s rotation spot could easily be filled by Jay Jackson with several other starters waiting in the wings.

After 2011, Kosuke Fukudome will either be extended or move on to another team.  If the Cubs are to continue to get younger, this would be an opportunity for either Brett Jackson or Tyler Colvin to begin playing in the OF.  At the same time, some other aforementioned minor leaguers could be ready to fill unexpected holes in the rotation, the outfield or infield.

In many ways, this transition could be seamless, as long as management isn’t insistent on holding onto older players.  While it is risky to assume production out of young players, it is equally risky to invest a large amount of money in an aging veteran.  Additionally, with the money freed up through expiring contracts, there will be enough available to resign younger players and even look to plug holes temporarily through free agency.  A lot is still in the air, though.  Will Ramirez opt to remain a Cub?  Will Soriano produce at all in the final five years of his contract?  Will Soto return to his 2008 form and become one of the better catchers in the game?  These are critical questions whose answers will ultimately force  the Cubs’ decision makers to either find some in-house, young solutions or search for temporary and expensive answers in free agency.

A good bench is often cited as one of those necessities for a championship baseball team.  However, we are too often given vague descriptions of what truly constitutes a solid unit.  Is it good pinch runners and late inning defensive replacements?  A good pinch hitter that can negate the value of an opposing left handed reliever?  Or is it guys who can fill in in the case of injury?  Well, of course it’s all of the above in some way or another, but in this article we can hopefully start to create a systematic approach to filling out a roster.

A bench player’s value is determined by a variety of factors which arise from unique situations.  These include platoon partnering, pinch hitting, spot starting in place of a resting starter and replacing an injured starter.  One has to also consider the opportunity cost of development for younger players who could be receiving greater playing time in the minor leagues.

A general manager should look to start building his bench with players who can provide the most value.  The potential value is not just determined by being a superior talent, but also the potential playing opportunities.  In addition, there is some exclusivity as the multiple players cannot perform the exact same role off the bench.  The value of a player who excels at pinch running is hindered by having a teammate with similar skills as they can’t both be employed in all high leverage situations.  As a result, the GM has to examine how an addition will marginally affect the total team performance, rather than just the player’s individual contribution.  In order to properly evaluate the value of a player, we should look at each component of his value.

Platoon Partnering

A platoon partner is a split between a starter and bench player, but we’ll call him a bench player assuming that a team already has a starter at every position.  This role provides arguably the most value of any bench position, possibly improving production by 100 points in OPS over a few hundred plate appearances.  Take the current Cubs 2B platoon of Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot as an example.

Baker (career)
vs. LHP .285/.346/.543/.889
vs. RHP .262/.316/.411/.727

Fontenot (career)
vs. LHP .232/.286/.344/.630
vs. RHP 272/.348/.435/.783

It’s pretty clear that the Cubs are getting a pretty solid increase in production with the career numbers showing a 269 point improvement against left handed pitching and a smaller 66 points against righties. Not only does a platoon situation help produce runs in the starting lineup, but the platoon partner is also available for perform other bench functions which we’ll look at later.  It’s pretty obvious that a player that provides a potentially large platoon advantage should have high priority on the bench.

Injury Replacement/Spot Starter

While some might think that pinch hitting is the next important function at the bench, I would argue that an injury replacement or spot starter is more important.  This is because a player has many more potential opportunities to contribute in place of a starter than as a player getting a few plate appearances per week.  Using this reasoning, the best bench option is clearly not the best hitter or fielder, but the player who has the greatest chance to contribute positively.  This would have a tendency to favor outfielders over first basemen and would require some evaluation of the injury risk for the starting lineup.  Using the Cubs case again, Micah Hoffpauir is an inferior choice to Chad Tracy, not because he is a worse hitter, but because he can only provide positive replacement value at 1st base where the relatively durable Derrek Lee plays and rarely skips a start.  Meanwhile, Tracy can play 1st or 3rd at least averagely and even play in the likely event of an Alfonso Soriano injury or off day.  A player with multiple position flexibility (which means not just playing the defensive positions, but playing them well enough to actually add value to the team) also allows for better utilization of the rest of the bench, increasing team value.

Pinch Hitting

Pinch hitting is important, but in most cases, finding a good pinch hitter shouldn’t be the first priority.  Platoon partners and positional backups would be able to handle most situations, and the premium paid for better hitters would far exceed the marginal benefit in a small amount of plate appearances.  Nevertheless, a bench that completely lacks a hitter who can hit right handed pitchers well, or a starter with a terrible platoon split and no platoon partner both create noteworthy opportunities to add value.  If this is a unique need for a team, then it may be worth it to add a player primarily for this purpose.

Pinch Running/Defensive Replacement

While often cited as important elements of a bench, a pinch runner or defensive replacement will have an insignificant impact on the team.  The value is somewhat increased with a particularly slow or defensively inept team, but this role should not be actively pursued as there are extremely few actual situations where a substitution makes any difference.  Additionally, there are almost always players already occupying the platoon partner or backup roles that are capable of pinch running or playing defense.  This role would likely be the main reason for the 2010 Cubs to add Sam Fuld to the roster, despite the fact that he would add little platoon advantage, replacement value over other members of the team, or pinch hitting value.

Opportunity Cost of Development

Finally, adding a player to the 25 man roster in a bench role will almost certainly limit his at bats compared to starting in the minor leagues.  This is an important issue particularly for teams not expecting to contend since a win in the current year is valued at a lesser value than future wins.  Also, players in the minor leagues can still have value as backups on the depth chart in the event of a longer term injury.  On the whole, teams should keep their younger players in the minor leagues and avoid the hindrance of development.  Such is the case with the Cubs and Tyler Colvin.  While he could provide great value as 4th outfielder, it’s clear he has a lot to gain from another year in the minors.

Altogether, a bench should be made up of a players who can contribute positively in the greatest number of potential situations.  This goes farther than the simple addition of good players, but also considers where and when these players could fill in and have an impact.  Additionally, flexibility allows for greater utilization of all players off the bench in situations where they are best equipped to add value.