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This week’s Friday Night Quarterback question is one that attempts to answer the question of where Tom Brady would profile in the NFL Draft if he had come out of Michigan in 2011 instead of 2000.  You know the background story on Brady.  He was recruited to Michigan and buried on the depth chart, but emerged as the best player for the job in 1998 after Michigan won the national championship, starting the final 25 games of his NCAA career, and winning 20 of them including two major bowls.  Brady, though, played for Michigan in such a dominant era that he never received the reputation for being a good college player.

Brady’s scouting report, which is unsourced primarily because it is eleven years old, reads as follows:

Notes: Baseball catcher and football quarterback in high school who was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the 18th round of the June 1995 baseball draft. Opted for football and redshirted at Michigan in ’95. Saw limited action in ’96 and ’97 and started the past two years. Completed 3 of 5 passes for 26 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in ’96, 12-15-103-0-0 in ’97, 214-350-2,636-15-12 in ’98 and 180-295-2,216-16-6 in ’99, when he often shared time with super sophomore Drew Henson. Went all the way against Alabama in the Orange Bowl and completed 34-46-369-4. Unlike many Michigan quarterbacks, Brady is a pocket-type passer who plays best in a dropback-type system.

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the ’99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you’d like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can’t drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you’re looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone.

 We know these there are three variables that translate directly from the college game to the pro game.  First: college completion percentage.  Second: college sack rate; at the major college football level (the proliferation of the spread offense at lower levels of college football has rendered this measure useless for lower-division QBs, though the skill is still important).  Third: the adult height of the quarterback.  We know that all other college stats are system/situation dependent enough to not have any predictive value between a college quarterback and that same players in the pros.  But we also know that a player’s stats are largely useless in a limited sample which is why three and four year college starters are so much more valuable in the draft today than one or two year starters.

And that’s the big thing with Tom Brady.  He was a great statistical quarterback at Michigan, but because his career lasted only 25 starts, it was easy to write his production off as a function of his team’s dominance, and his physical skill set as alluded to in his scouting report, only served to reinforce the idea that any player could have accomplished what Brady did at Michigan over his timeframe.  It wasn’t a certainty that he was going to get drafted in 2000, though it was pretty likely.

What sticks out about the Brady scouting report was that he was labeled as a system quarterback by the scout, a label that has pretty much held up as true in the pros.  Brady has become a system quarterback, the first elite spread quarterback in the NFL in the way that Joe Montana became the first elite west coast quarterback in the NFL.  Guys who are viewed as system passers, such as Colt McCoy or Kevin Kolb, almost universally do not get picked in the first round.  I needed more context on this, so I looked up the scouting report of a guy who has had a very similar career to Brady in the same NFL era, but didn’t fall to the sixth round.

Drew Brees
By: Dave-Te’ Thomas

#15-DREW BREES Purdue University Boilermakers 5:11.7-221

ANALYSIS
Positives… Touch passer with the ability to read and diagnose defensive coverages…Confident leader who knows how to take command in the huddle…Very tough and mobile moving around in the pocket…Has a quick setup and is very effective throwing on the move…Throws across his body with great consistency…Hits receivers in stride and improvises his throws in order to make a completion…Puts good zip behind the short and mid-range passes…Shows good judgement and keen field vision…Has a take-charge attitude and is very cool under pressure…Hits receivers in motion with impressive velocity…Has superb pocket presence and uses all of his offensive weapons in order to move the chains…Has solid body mechanics and quickness moving away from center… Elusive scrambler with the body control to avoid the rush.

Negatives… Plays in the spread offense, taking the bulk of his snaps from the shotgun… Tends to side-arm his passes going deep…Lacks accuracy and touch on his long throws… Seems more comfortable in the short/intermediate passing attack…Does not possess the ideal height you look for in a pro passer, though his ability to scan the field helps him compensate in this area…Will improvise and run when the passing lanes are clogged, but tends to run through defenders rather than trying to avoid them to prevent unnecessary punishment.

CAREER NOTES
The unquestioned leader of the Boilermakers’ offense and one of the school’s most decorated athletes…The three-year starter shattered virtually every school passing record and also made his marks on the Big Ten Conference and NCAA Division 1-A record charts…Ranks fourth in NCAA annals with 1525 pass attempts, 942 completions and 11,815 yards in total offense (NCAA does not recognize bowl stats)…Including post-season action, he holds the Boilermaker and conference career-records with 1026 pass completions of 1678 passes for 11,792 yards, 90 touchdown tosses and 12,692 yards in total offense…His pass completion percentage of .611 set another Purdue all-time record… Only player in Big Ten Conference history to throw for over 500 yards in a game twice in a career…Threw for over 400 yards seven times, over 300 yards sixteen times and over 200 yards twenty-seven times during his career…Tied Wisconsin tailback Ron Dayne’s (1996-99) Big Ten Conference record by earning Player of the Week honors eight times during his career.

Drew Brees is kind of sort of a system quarterback, though in a far different way than Brady.  Brees’ accuracy numbers are all about the precision on his passes and fitting the ball into tight spaces.  Brady’s accuracy numbers are about being ahead of the defense from a mental standpoint and quicker than the defense with his arm.  The reason that Brees was selected in the second round was that he did a ton of passing in his four years of college.  As you read above, his size and durability were a concern, and like Brady, scouts weren’t convinced he could be an effective vertical passer coming out of college.  The difference between Brees and Brady was that college senior Drew Brees threw the football in the intermediate zone and to the sideline in a way that made scouts very confident that he could translate to the pro game given a top rushing attack (which he had in SD), by making the difficult out throws that NFL quarterbacks need to.  I feel that Brady’s combine performance may have given some credence to the thought that he could not make those throws to the edge of the football field.  Otherwise though, these were eerily similar prospects coming out who have enjoyed very similar careers, except that Tom Brady got overlooked on Draft day, and Brees was the second quarterback in 2001 taken after Michael Vick.

A first round pick in today’s game must be perceived as durable coming out of college.  Joe Flacco was perceived as durable.  Sam Bradford, despite a shoulder injury, was perceived as durable.  Blaine Gabbert: durable.  Matt Ryan: durable.  JaMarcus Russell: durable.  Brady Quinn: durable.  Even Matthew Stafford was perceived to be durable coming out of Georgia.  Neither Brady nor Brees seemed like they would hold up to the NFL rush, and Brady’s frame was of particular concern.  Of course, Michael Vick went first overall in 2001 as an anomaly because no one could have possibly felt he was durable.  If we expand the scope past quarterbacks, Reggie Bush may have lost out on being the first overall pick because of durability concerns at the next level.

So we can conclude that as a system QB project who had durability and arm strength concerns, Brady would not have gone in the first round in any year.  There were too many questions about him as a prospect.  The second round is possible.  Brady had a lot of Drew Brees’ qualities, and a lot of Kevin Kolb’s qualities as well.

Strengths:
Kolb has good size and build for a NFL quarterback and excels at throwing short to mid-range passes. He can throw the ball on the move and is a threat to run with the ball if necessary. Kolb is a great leader and has started for four years at Houston. He would be an ideal West Coast quarterback once he learned the system.

Weaknesses:
Kolb did not play in a pro style offense at Houston and would have to learn the NFL style of progression and reads. He is unlikely to become an elite vertical passer. He must work on improving his mechanics, as he has a tendency to wind up too much. Kolb has as tendency to go to a three quarters delivery that causes the ball to get batted down at the line of scrimmage.

Overall:
Kolb was productive at Houston, but that was in a shotgun based, short throwing offense. He would have to take the time to learn the pro style offense, and his lack of arm strength will limit his ceiling. The question on Kolb will be if his success was due to the system or if he can mature into a solid NFL starter.

System concerns.  Vertical passing concerns.  No height concerns and no durability concerns listed for Kolb, who was definitely not as well regarded as Brees coming out (for Brees the spread system was perceived as more of a fact, re: learning curve; for Kolb, it meant he was off a lot of teams boards).  Kolb was more highly regarded than Tom Brady coming out of Houston in 2007 (which ended up being a weak QB class), and I think the reasoning for that is sound.  Brady, all these years later, would not go at the top of the second round either.

A good comparable for Brady in terms of historical significance is Joe Montana, and he was drafted 82nd overall in 1979, which was pretty high for a quarterback.  The scouts in that draft loved Jack Thompson and Phil Simms, which made 79 a really strong draft for quarterbacks at the time even before you consider Montana.  In today’s game, Montana wouldn’t have fallen past where Jimmy Clausen was drafted by the Panthers out of the same school in 2010.  But then again, Montana was an accomplished college player who simply had arm-strength/system limitation.  In hindsight, Brady had the same deal: accuracy over arm, but was overshadowed at his college program where Montana achieved legend status.  Brady was more like Wisconsin’ Scott Tolzien should Tolzien have enjoyed a more competitive performance against TCU in the Rose Bowl, which probably cost him the right to be drafted.

System guys like Michigan-era Brady get drafted if they play in enough big games in their college careers, which Brady did.  Strangely, that’s probably not what got him drafted in 2000.  Brady’s intelligence made him a perfect candidate for the system that Bill Belichick was trying to install in New England.  But because of the success of that system and the proliferation of Belichick’s assistants throughout the league, players with Brady’s skills are more valued today.  Brady’s draft profile would have been more valuable than, to throw a name out there, either Colt McCoy or Mike Kafka in 2010.

We now have a range where Michigan’s Tom Brady would have been drafted in the 2011 draft.  He would have gone higher than Joe Montana went in 1979, because players who were more maligned by NFL draftniks and front offices alike slipped further than that.

I went back to the list of statistical comparables, and I see names like John Beck, Jimmy Clausen, Drew Stanton nearby in completion percentage.  This year, the closest comparables were Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, and TJ Yates unadjusted for era, and Tolzien and Greg McElroy when compared to the time-weighted average.  Brady would have been one of the more sought after system quarterbacks this year, though he probably wouldn’t have caused the Dalton-mania symptoms the Bengals exhibited on draft day.  I think he would have gone higher than the average year in 2011, but speaking about 2011 more abstractly, I think Brady would have been the fourth QB drafted in 2009, I think he would have been the third or fourth QB taken in 2010, and he probably wouldn’t have been in the first five taken in 2011, though that would have been the one year Brady might actually have gone in the first round.

Tom Brady, a decade later, would likely not have been a sixth round pick.  Brady likely would have been perceived similar to this years former Michigan QB, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett.   Brady may not have been seen as the player with the most upside, but he wouldn’t have fallen due to character concerns.  If Tom Brady had not been drafted in 2000, but had been drafted in 2011 or 2012 instead, front offices would have rated the Michigan product as a mid second round pick to an early third round pick, and a system quarterback prospect who could thrive in a system that takes advantage of his limited skill set.

Like, for example, the New England Patriots.

As clear as it was last week that both late round picks and recent undrafted free agents form the core of contending NFC teams, such as the Packers, we’ll look at a couple of the dynasties that dominate the AFC and examine the role of the cost-free acquisition on building a consistent winner…and challenging the consistently dominant teams in the AFC.

Undrafted Free Agents: Evidence from the AFC

An asterisk denotes a player who is no longer cheap because he is on his second (or third) contract, but was acquired via the means discussed in this article.

AFC South

Best undrafted players: WR Jason Hill (waivers from SF), FB Vonta Leach (expiring contract), G Mike Brisiel, S Bernard Pollard (waivers from KC), FB Ahmard Hall, DT Tony Brown*, C Jeff Saturday*, LB Gary Brackett*, CB Jacob Lacey

Best late round draft picks: QB David Garrard*, RB Rashad Jennings, TE Zach Miller, OL Uche Nwaneri*, DE Austen Lane, WR Kevin Walter* (signed as RFA from Cincinnati), TE Owen Daniels*, TE Joel Dreessen (by NYJ), CB Glover Quin, RB Javon Ringer, TE Bo Scaife* (expiring contract), C Eugene Amano*, G Leroy Harris, CB Cortland Finnegan*, CB Alterraun Verner, WR Austin Collie, WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, OT Ryan Diem*, LB Clint Session, LB Kavell Conner, CB Justin Tryon (by Washington), S Antoine Bethea*

Analysis: The Jaguars are an excellent example of a team that hardly ever uses cost-free competition for its draft picks, as both the offense and the defense are littered with second and third rounders everywhere.  Sometimes, the draft works well right from the first season (Maurice Jones-Drew), sometimes you get a huge return a few years down the road (David Garrard, Marcedes Lewis, Daryl Smith).  Sometimes, you draft a really good player, but he signs a big contract and with no competition, he loses effectiveness entirely and is still in the starting lineup because “he’s all you’ve got” (Rashean Mathis).  And then sometimes you draft a total bust (Reggie Nelson), and four years later you don’t have any starter at the position.  If the Jags were better with UDFAs than they have been, they would have won multiple AFC South’s over the last few years, but their roster has always had an underachiever problem, even when it was young.

The Texans don’t have a lot to show for it, but there are elements of intelligent design in their offense.  FB Vonta Leach was a cost-free pickup from Green Bay in the middle of the 2006 season, Gary Kubiak’s first year, and he’s served an entire contract length with the Texans.

The Colts are the opposite of the Jags: they find undrafted free agent contributors every season, and more than just that, they aren’t afraid to play them.

Overall the AFC South appears to be the one division that has had far more success in the late rounds of the NFL draft against undrafted free agent signings.  But the Colts, who use both, often have the strongest and deepest roster of the entire group.

AFC North

Best Undrafted Players: WR/KR Josh Cribbs*, TE Evan Moore, DE Matt Roth (waivers from Miami), LB Chris Gocong (S. Brown trade throw-in from Philadelphia), RB Cedric Benson* (cost-free UFA), RB Brian Leonard (contract swap w/St. Louis), WR Quan Cosby, G Nate Livings, C Kyle Cook, RB Isaac Redman, LB James Harrison*, DL Kelly Gregg* (signed to BAL practice squad in 2000), LB Jameel McClain

Best late round draft picks: RB Peyton Hillis (by Denver), FB Lawrence Vickers, DT Ahtyba Rubin, RB Bernard Scott, DT Domata Peko, OT Willie Colon, DE Aaron Smith*, DE Brett Keisel*, CB Ike Taylor* (contract expiring), FB Le’Ron McClain, OT Jared Gaither, LB Jarret Johnson*,

Analysis: One of the more loaded NFL divisions now that the Browns have decided to join the party.  And there a significant undrafted flavor in this division, although not so much recently, so if you’re looking for the decline of the Steelers and Ravens soon, you can look at the inefficiency in the cost structure of their (still very loaded) respective rosters.  Look at the Steelers for example.  You have two pro bowl 3-4 ends who were developmental draft picks.  They are now being paid like starters.  Also being paid like starters are their future replacements, first round picks Ziggy Hood (2009) and Cam Heyward (2011).  Casey Hampton is a nose tackle entering his mid-thirties on an expensive contract he signed in 2010.  Longtime backup Chris Hoke is an unrestricted free agent, and highly undervalued.  Then at the linebacker level, James Harrison is still elite, but in the middle of a mega deal.  Lamarr Woodley has the franchise tag, and figures to sign a mega deal to offer Pittsburgh cap relief (whenever there is a cap again).  Where does that leave Lawrence Timmons, an elite interior linebacker in the last year of his rookie contract?  Pittsburgh will likely resign him too, but likely will have to release Aaron Smith to free up that salary.  They got a discount on Ryan Clark (thanks, rest of the NFL), but can’t afford depth behind him and Polamalu.  And Ike Taylor is probably walking because the Steelers feel can win without him.  If you look at the cost structure of the Steelers, you can maybe see the business reason for dealing Santonio Holmes when they did: they couldn’t have afforded him anyway.  That’s a terrible cost structure, and we just covered the defense.  The Ravens aren’t a lot better, except that they haven’t tied 100 million up in a quarterback yet.

This is a good division for UDFAs, and no franchise is an obvious leader in terms of efficiency.  The teams that have the most talent are also paying the most to keep their talent.  That means the Browns and Bengals will have every chance to rise as the Steelers and Ravens age, but must continue to add talent to play a meaningful role in the future.

AFC East

Best undrafted free agents: RB Fred Jackson, WR Davone Bess*, WR Brian Hartline, LB Cameron Wake, RB BenJarvus Green Ellis, RB Danny Woodhead, DE Mike Wright*, G Brandon Moore*, DE Mike DeVito

Best late round draft picks: WR Stevie Johnson, OT Demetrius Bell, DT Kyle Williams*, CB Terrence McGee*, NT Paul Soliai, S Yeremiah Bell*, TE Aaron Hernandez, C Dan Koppen*, LB Rob Ninkovich (by New Orleans), WR Jericho Cotchery*, WR Brad Smith (expired contract), G Matt Slauson

Analysis: Few teams have been able to extract more value out of undrafted free agents than have the Miami Dolphins, who built most of their receiving corps from college UDFAs, and went to the CFL to find Cameron Wake, one of the NFL’s most terrifying pass rushers.  One of the teams that may have the Dolphins bested, unsurprisingly, is the New England Patriots if only because they can turn BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead into household names, and people are so generally unimpressed that the number one surprise about the Patriots’ undrafted free agent tactics is who they will find this year.  The Pats have not been nearly as successful at receiver as they have been at running back in finding cost-free, winning options.  As far as cost structure goes, it’s still the Dolphins world in the AFC East.  Of course, that was before they brought Brandon Marshall on board.  We will see where he takes them.

The Bills have little to speak of.  Kyle Williams is on a team friendly deal: he earned his extension through 2012, and he’s due even more money from someone when that deal runs out.  Fantasy owners know all about the Bills one undrafted contributor, RB Fred Jackson.  His undrafted contributions are limited by the fact that he is almost 30 years old, and that the Bills have spent two first round picks on RBs since he’s been on the team.  WR Stevie Johnson was a big time draft steal, but that’s all the Bills have done in the late rounds to date.

The Jets have always done a good job finding cheap players to plug their holes, although they have long preferred (even prior to Eric Mangini) the veteran free agent route to going with undrafted players and developing them.

AFC West

Best undrafted free agents: G Brian Waters*, G Ryan Lilja (waivers from Indianapolis), DE Wallace Gilberry, LB Jovan Belcher, FB Marcell Reese, DT Tommy Kelly*, CB Chris Johnson*, RB Mike Tolbert, WR Malcolm Floyd (expiring contract), TE Antonio Gates*, G Kris Dielman*, NT Antonio Garay (waivers from Chicago), LB Antwaan Applewhite

Best late round draft picks: OT Barry Richardson, CB Brandon Carr, WR Louis Murphy, WR Jacoby Ford, WR Chaz Schilens, DE Trevor Scott, S Tyvon Branch, DE Elvis Dumerville*, CB Perrish Cox, RB Darren Sproles, FB Jacob Hester, NT Cam Thomas, DE Jacques Cesaire*, LB Shaun Phillips*

Analysis: Really, the only place in which Scott Pioli has outperformed the Patriots since he took over in Kansas City is in terms of undrafted free agents, on the backs of which the Chiefs have successfully rebuilt their defense.  But if we’re giving credit to the Chiefs for rebuilding their defense on the cheap, what do you say about the Raiders, who have given Jason Campbell more weapons than he ever had in Washington and they spent: a 7th rounder in 2008, 4th rounder in 2009, a 4th rounder in 2010, and now in Denarius Moore works out, a 6th rounder in 2011.  If only their mid round picks spent on protecting Campbell could work out as well.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders are vastly outpacing the Denver Broncos in undrafted free agent contribution.  In fact, Denver does not have an undrafted, cost-effective player who is in the starting lineup right now.

The San Diego Chargers are the gold standard for this exercise.  No team in the last decade has done a better job finding talent from all sources, particularly those sources which do not cost the Chargers might to take a look see.  Tolbert, Floyd, and Gates could start for nearly any team in the league, and have helped to keep the Chargers near the top of the league leaderboards.  Kris Dielman has long been the leader on the Chargers OL.  Did you know he too was undrafted?  He was.  What about young Antwaan Appelwhite?  He was undrafted as well.

And the Chargers deserve credit for how they attack the late rounds of the NFL Draft as well.  Jacques Cesaire has been a contributer on the DL of the Chargers since they’ve been playing a 3-4.  Stephen Cooper, Brandon Siler, and Kevin Burnett make this LB corps a strength.  And this team is still loaded with plenty of prospects.

The Chargers have had some difficult drafts since 2009.  They haven’t gotten a lot of return on their picks in the first two rounds, notably LB Larry English, RB Ryan Mathews, and LB Donald Butler didn’t play last year.  But this team is still a good pick, annually, to reach the super bowl, and it’s because of excellent roster construction on the cheap.  No team has been better at building resource-free than the San Diego Chargers, a great bet to be the team of the 2010′s.

NFL teams are built though the NFL Draft.  This is a truth that we hold self evident.  It’s also misleading.

The more-accurate truth is that the successful teams are built through the scrap heap in some way or form.  The 2010 Packers, an almost completely homegrown team, are the anomaly.  But even the SB champion packers wouldn’t have made it as far as they did without something that I will refer to here as an “unexpected” contribution from fourth year CB Tramon Williams and rookie CB Sam Shields, both of whom combined to help Charles Woodson extend the effective portion of his career at cornerback.  Williams and Shields have something else in common: both went undrafted by NFL teams in their respective draft years.

It is impossible to compete in the current NFL environment without the ability to find a number of “cost-free” players who can provide competition for — or in many cases, outright win a job from — a recent draft pick.  The nature of the draft does not allow for risk-free selections.  Even the wisest drafting teams will still have to make a choice at some point in the draft between a player they believe in based on their own evaluations, and a consensus “best available” player who they could not have done their due diligence on.  Sometimes, the best player available in the draft is not a player who fits perfectly in the scheme, but if a team doesn’t step outside its comfort zone to draft the best players, it’s hurting itself in the long run.

Which is one of the many reasons why finding a supply of UDFA talent is so critical, especially in the salary cap era.  You’ll find that after round 3 of the NFL draft, the players who end up being the very best professionals typically slip through the cracks of the third day of the NFL draft.  Why is this?

To answer that question, I compared the value of the best UDFA starters in a given division against the value of the best late round draft picks in a given division to see which teams are optimizing undrafted free agents against late round draft picks. Only players on their rookie contracts are being considered in this case study.  Then, I will discuss the effects of this lockout on NFL teams and undrafted players alike.

Players marked with an asterisk (*) are players who have received contract extensions from their teams, but are listed here because they would still be under team control in absence of a contract extension.

NFC South

Best undrafted players: RB Legarette Blount, FB Earnest Graham, OT Donald Penn, OT James Lee, G Ted Larsen, RB Pierre Thomas, RB Chris Ivory, WR Lance Moore (contact expired), LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, DT Remi Ayodele, G Harvey Dahl (expired contract), T Tyson Clabo (expired contract), CB Brent Grimes

Best late round draft picks: WR Mike Williams, LB Geno Hayes, S Tanard Jackson, CB E.J. Biggers, WR Marques Colston, G Jahri Evans*, G Carl Nicks, T Jermon Bushrod, DE Kroy Biermann, DE Charles Johnson, CB Captain Munnerlyn, WR David Gettis

Analysis: Perhaps one of the best examples of the UDFA phenomenon is the waste of resources between the Falcons and their defensive tackle situation.  GM Thomas Dimitroff extended DT Jonathon Babineaux in his first year on the job prior to Babineaux becoming a free agent.  The next year, the team drafted Peria Jerry to play next to him.  Jerry missed all of 2009 with an injury, and then in 2010, the Falcons spent a third round pick on Corey Peters, who beat out the recovering Jerry as a rookie.  That’s a lot of money and draft selections invested to make a position a relative strength…and ultimately, the Falcons ranked 12th, below the league average,  in 2010 defensive DVOA, although they were above average in run defense.

You could argue that the best three players on the list above are on the late round draft picks list: Mike Williams, Marques Colston, and Jahri Evans are all on the NFL Top 100 list.  But Donald Penn would be on a list of the top 200 players (top 15% of NFL players), as well as Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo, and it’s fascinating how the competitive teams in this division built mauling, man blocking OLs without using high draft picks (the Saints used lower round picks, while the Falcons and Bucs are almost entirely undrafted at the key positions), versus where the Panthers spent their resources: two first round tackles, a second round center, and two first round running backs.

That’s not to rip on the Carolina running game, which is very effective in and of itself, but have you seen it’s passing game?  Ignoring the pass protection units for a second, you have a second round QB throwing to a pair of third round receivers (of course, one of those is Steve Smith) and a 6th round rookie, David Gettis, who was the most effective receiver in the rotation last year.  The Panthers have almost no impact undrafted free agents who are still cheap, and it’s costing them.  Matt Moore still might be the best QB on that roster, but he’s buried beneath the hope of Jimmy Clausen and Cam Newton, and was dreadful last year anyhow.

Beyond Moore, the closest thing the Panthers have enjoyed to a UDFA success is OT Garry Williams, who started 11 games at RT for Jeff Otah last year in a lost season.  This is why it could be a while before the Panthers compete again.  On the bright side, the Panthers have done pretty well in the 7th round all things considered the last few years (G Mackenzy Bernadeau, G Geoff Schwartz, CB Captain Munnerlyn).

NFC North

Best Undrafted Players: DE Israel Idonije, S Husain Abdullah, CB Sam Shields, CB Tramon Williams, DE Cullen Jenkins (expiring contract), DL Johnny Jolly, RB Ryan Grant*, LB Frank Zombo

Best late round draft picks: DT Matt Toeaina (by Cincinnati), CB Zack Bowman, OT J’Marcus Webb, WR Johnnie Knox, DT Sammie Lee Hill, C John Sullivan, DE Ray Edwards (expiring contract), RB James Starks, G Josh Sitton, TE Andrew Quarless, DE C.J. Wilson

Analysis: The Detroit Lions may deserve a lot of credit for what they’ve done since firing Matt Millen in 2008, but there’s an underlying reason that a playoff berth in 2011 is unlikely, and it’s a reason that has little to do with Matt Stafford.  The Lions have done an excellent job on the waiver wire, essentially picking up a first round pick when they snatched Alphonso Smith off waivers from the Broncos after Denver gave up on him after a year.  What the Lions haven’t done is found any late round or undrafted help for their team.  That 2010 draft class is looking very top heavy a year later and the 2011 class was top-heavy (three picks in top two rounds, just two picks after that).  Where are the undrafted players to supplement what Detroit has been doing in the top rounds?  They will have to leverage waiver priority again in 2011 to build the depth to contend.

The Vikings are in trouble for a different reason which is that they spent a lot of money on free agents to build their core instead of finding cheap UDFAs to do the same jobs.  Wash. St. S Husain Abdullah is the lone exception for HC Leslie Frasier, who oversaw Abdullah beating out 2008 second rounder Tyrell Johnson for the starting safety position in 2010.

The Packers on the other hand, are now set to dominate this division for the next ten years, and they’ve done it with a fair share of draft busts.  It will be interesting to see what the young Lions become, but right now now it looks like they will be the equivalent of Jim Schwartz’ 2003-08 Titans to the 2003-08 Tony Dungy Colts (the Packers).  It comes as no surprise that almost all of the successful UDFAs from this division are Green Bay Packers, though I certainly expected to see the Lions and Bears with a larger presence in that category.

NFC East

Best undrafted free agents: RB Keiland Williams, WR/KR Brandon Banks, OT Stephon Heyer, WR Anthony Armstrong, LB Lorenzo Alexander, LB Chris Wilson, S Quintin Mikell* (expiring contract), DT Antonio Dixon, QB Tony Romo*, WR Miles Austin*, DE Stephen Bowen (expiring contract), G Phil Costa

Best late round draft picks: RB Ryan Torain (by Denver), LB HB Blades, S, Reed Doughty, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, TE Kevin Boss, DT Barry Cofield (expiring contract), LB Jon Goff, LB Zak Deossie, FB Owen Schmitt (by Seattle), WR Jason Avant, OL Todd Herremans, OL King Dunlap, LB Moise Fokou, RB Tashard Choice, RB Marion Barber, OT Doug Free, NT Jay Ratliff*, CB Orlando Scandrick, S Alan Ball

Analysis: I figured for sure that the Redskins would come up behind the Giants and Eagles in terms of undrafted free agent contribution, but in hindsight, that probably wasn’t the guess that best fit the evidence.  The Redskins were incredible at finding UDFA contributors to fit Gregg Williams defense from 2004-07, and then did a great job last year at finding cost free contributors on offense under Mike Shanahan.  The Vinny Cerrato/Jim Zorn years were a lost period in terms of adding cost free talent, as the only starting caliber players adding during that period of Redskins history were TE Fred Davis (second round pick), G Will Montgomery (7th round pick of the Panthers), WR Anthony Armstrong (UDFA, who didn’t get a shot to play until Shanahan came in), LB Brian Orakpo (1st round pick), CB Kevin Barnes (3rd round pick), CB DeAngelo Hall (cost-free pickup who was immediately paid like a top five CB), and some guy named Haynesworth (Unrestricted FA; Brinks truck).  So yeah, in two years as GM, Vinny Cerrato acquired just seven players capable of making the 2010 roster, and guaranteed more than $55 million to two of them.  But between the 2007 season and the 2010 season alone, the Redskins have still acquired more key UDFAs than other NFC East teams.

But the whaa?  It’s the Cowboys who have dominated the NFC East in finding undrafted free agent talent (led, most notably, by Tony Romo and Miles Austin), and have done just as well as the Giants in finding talent to contibute in the late rounds.  The knock on the Cowboys, who have typically made great roster construction decisions, is that the 2009 draft is now a completely lost year.  Two players from that draft are still with the Cowboys: LB Victor Butler, and K David Buehler.  That was the year of the Roy Williams trade with Detroit, and now that it’s 2011, its officially time to see who won that trade: the Cowboys and Lions figure to be direct competitors for the NFC Wild Card, and play each other early in the season.

NFC West

Best undrafted free agents: WR Danny Amendola, TE Daniel Fells (expiring contract), DT Gary Gibson, S Craig Dahl, LB David Hawthorne

Best late round draft picks: WR Brandon Gibson (by Philadelphia), DT Clifton Ryan, LB David Vobora, RB Justin Forsett, WR Ben Obomanu*, G Mike Gibson (by Philadelphia), RB Tim Hightower, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, WR Steve Breaston, WR Andre Roberts, QB Troy Smith (by Baltimore), WR Josh Morgan, LB Parys Haralson*, CB Tarell Brown, S Dashon Goldson

Analysis: You can file WR Mike Williams under a cost-free pickup as well for the Seattle Seahawks, as both the Seahawks and the Rams fought each other with waiver pickups and the like for the 2010 NFC West crown, won by Pete Caroll’s experience over Steve Spagnuolo’s tactical expertise.

Meanwhile, you can see just as easily why the 49ers and Cardinals are struggling with such talent deficiency.  Both teams are drafting pretty well, but both have almost no cost free contribution anywhere on their roster.  And both teams are doing pretty well in the late rounds of the draft.  Better possibly, than division winner Seattle.  But cost free free agents are the engine of the NFL today, and San Francisco and Arizona trail well behind in finding good players and getting them to sign and excel in their systems.  Not coincidentally, they also trail in the standings year after year.

This post was inspired when I looked back at the Chiefs and Patriots drafts since Scott Pioli took over the Kansas City franchise, and wondered who had the best classes of players in their pre-free agency years.

Of those years studied, there have been three NFL draft classes that led directly to teams winning super bowls.  For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there was no clear draft class that lead to their super bowl title in 2005 or 2008, though certainly, the 2007 Steelers’ draft nearly made this top ten list.  We’ll discuss them, and classes like them, at the bottom of this article.

10) 2005 Green Bay Packers The hardest thing about picking a list of the best draft classes since 2005 was deciding which Packers class to include.  Green Bay just won the super bowl with a team that was almost entirely home grown.  And the lynchpin class came in six years ago when the Packers took Aaron Rodgers in the first round and Nick Collins in the second round.  The truth is, this class hasn’t really withstood the test of time.  The Packers spent a first round pick on Terrence Murphy in this draft, and he washed out almost immediately.  But Brady Poppinga and Mike Montgomery turned into good, solid contributing veterans.  Truth is though, without Rodgers on offense and Collins on defense, the Packers prove unable to win the super bowl.  That is what makes this class one of the great ones of the last decade.

9) 2006 Houston Texans This is the draft that earned Charlie Casserly a spot on national television as a draft expert.  Casserly always stuck to his guns in his drafts, though rarely did his classes sparkle in the way that this one did.  In the first three rounds, the Texans landed DE (now LB) Mario Williams, LB Demeco Ryans, and OT Eric Winston.  You could make the argument that those are the three of the five best players on the Texans.  Their first pick on the second day was TE Owen Daniels.  Casserly’s draft didn’t end there, picking up the team’s third receiver, David Anderson, in the seventh round.  This class should have put the Texans deep in the playoffs annually, but unfortunately, it was drafted for use by Gary Kubiak, and the Texans have yet to make the NFL postseason.

8. 2005 New England Patriots Recent Patriots history has been muddled with some really ugly drafts, but the draft that built the young backbone of the historic 2007 season was New England’s 2005 draft.  The team’s left guard, Logan Mankins, was widely considered a reach in the first round of this draft, but is now one of the league’s top guards.  Second round pick Ellis Hobbs may be on the verge of an early retirement, but had three good years for the Patriots including the 2007 season before being dealt to the Philadelphia Eagles and starting on that team for two seasons.  Nick Kazcur is often maligned as the weakness of the Patriots line, but was the team’s starting offensive tackle on a super bowl contender from 2006-2009.  Then there was safety James Sanders, a starter on the 2007 team, and a fourth round pick in 2005.  The cherry on top of that class was seventh round quarterback, Matt Cassel, who won 11 games with the Patriots in 2008 and was dealt to Kansas City in 2009 along with LB Mike Vrabel for a second round pick.

7) 2005 Dallas Cowboys Hard to remember now because the team did nothing in the playoffs, but the 2007 NFC version of the Patriots were the Dallas Cowboys, and they were built on the strength of this draft, which may have been the best draft ever for pass rushers.  Players in this draft class for the Cowboys have combined for 137.5 sacks.  That is not a small number.  It is a very big number.  80 of those sacks belong to 12th overall pick DeMarcus Ware.  25 more of those belong to Ware’s partner in crime, Jay Ratiff, picked seven rounds later.  In between Ware and Ratliff, the Cowboys took: DE Marcus Spears, DE Chris Canty, and LB Kevin Burnett, who combined for the other 32.5 career sacks.  I can’t forget that this class also produced the Cowboys’ leading rusher in 2007, 2008, and 2009: Marion Barber.

6) 2007 New York Giants Jerry Reese’ first draft class as GM of the New York Giants remains his best, and it’s Reese’s work with this class that provided the engine for the Giants’ super bowl run in that same season.  Ironically, the class was headlined by a guy who has become a bust, CB Aaron Ross.  It was actually the class’ depth that helped lead the Giants to the super bowl in 2007.  The starting tight end for that run, and Eli Manning’s favorite target, was a rookie TE by the name of Kevin Boss, a fifth round pick in that class.  One of the most effective DTs in the super bowl that year was a rookie DT by the name of Jay Alford, a third round pick out of Penn State.  The most effective possession receiver in the NFC East was the Giants’ second round pick that year, WR Steve Smith from USC.  Zak DeOssie is a pro bowl special teamer who has combined long-snapping acumen with coverage skills to be an important part of this class.  And in the seventh round, the Giants picked up a pair of guys who won games in the playoffs: S Michael Johnson from Arizona, and RB Ahmad Bradshaw from Marshall, possibly the best player from this class.

As a group these guys never held up to the test of time, but by delivering a title in their first season, and with the entire class contributing, the Giants locked up a spot in the best draft classes of the last decade.

5) 2010 Oakland Raiders Though the 2010 Raiders haven’t actually accomplished anything as a draft class, the depth and talent in that class are well on their way to becoming household names.  Rolando McClain.  Lamarr Houston. Jared Veldheer.  Jacoby Ford.  We’re talking about four of the top, oh, 100 players in the NFL over the next decade.  All in one class by the Oakland Raiders.  But this class also goes beyond that towards players who will now have a shot to step into roles vacated by Raiders on expiring contracts: Bruce Campbell, Walter McFadden, Travis Goethel, Jeremy Ware, or Stevie Brown.  The entire 9 man class could contribute at some point for the Raiders, and any playoff push the Raiders make in the future will happen on the strength of this class.

4) 2006 New Orleans Saints The Saints drafted Reggie Bush with the second overall pick in 2006, and then they won two division titles in four years with him.  But Bush wasn’t the biggest piece of this class for the Saints.  7th round pick Marques Colston from Hofstra has had the biggest impact on the Saints through five seasons as a Saint.  But aside from brand name impact and receiving impact, the very best player in the 2006 Saints draft class was their fourth round pick, two time all-pro G Jahri Evans.  S Roman Harper became a starter under the pressure schemes of DC Gregg Williams.  Finally, DE Rob Ninkovich didn’t make the Saints, but has become an important part of the Patriots defensive unit, adding to the talent picked by the Saints in this class.

3) 2005 San Diego Chargers The best NFL draft class of the last ten seasons was the 2004 San Diego Chargers.  Eli Manning traded for Philip Rivers. Igor Olshansky, Nick Hardwick, Nate Kaeding, Shaun Phillips, Dave Ball, Michael Turner.  All in one class.  But because the title of this article is the best draft classes since 2005, it’s still remarkable that the Chargers next class ranks in the top three since 2005.  They had extra picks thanks to the Manning/Rivers trade, and promptly used the first pick on Shawne Merriman, who was one of the best players in football three years into his career.  The Chargers continued building on their defensive front with Luis Castillo, still a very large part of their defense today.  But beyond what they did with the defense, it’s the rest of the class that really ignited the Chargers.  In the second and fourth rounds, the Chargers drafted WR Vincent Jackson, and RB Darren Sproles respectively, the main players in the Chargers offensive arsenal between 2008 and 2010.  Jackson and Sproles will be two of the top targets on this year’s free agent market, whenever it does open.

2) 2010 New England Patriots This class may not look as strong in a year as it does right now.  Or, it could look like the strongest class in the last twenty years at this time next season.  Devin McCourty had a rare rookie year at corner, and it wouldn’t be that shocking to see a regression from him, but he also could be on a path straight to the hall of fame.  The second round, with TE Rob Gronkowski, LB Jermaine Cunningham, and LB Brandon Spikes, has a chance to be legendary.  TE Aaron Hernandez, a fourth round pick, looks to be the steal of the draft.  The Patriots went off script to grab a punter, and Zolton Mesko was one of the league’s best as a rookie.  This is the best draft class Bill Belichick ever had as coach/president of the Patriots, and it’s just one reason to feel that the second half of Tom Brady’s career could be as good as the first half.

1) 2008 Kansas City Chiefs The best draft class since 2005 began at the top, with President Carl Peterson and Head Coach Herm Edwards calling the shots.  In the first 35 picks, the Chiefs had selected LSU DL Glenn Dorsey, Virginia OT Branden Albert, and Virginia Tech CB Brandon Flowers.  That would have been a great foundation on which a perennial playoff contender could have built.  It was then, in the third round, that the Chiefs drafted the best player in this draft class, if not the entire 2008 draft: RB Jamaal Charles.  Jamaal Charles won the NFL rushing title in 2010, leading the Chiefs to the playoffs.  By the way, in the fifth and sixth round of this draft, the Chiefs drafted (respectively) a second CB, Brandon Carr, who is arguably with Flowers amongst the top 15 CBs in football today, and the current starting RT of the Kansas City Chiefs, Barry Richardson.  The strength and depth of those six players makes the Chiefs’ 2008 NFL Draft class the strongest class since the year 2005.

NFL Draft Classes Honorable Mention (2005-11)

In no specific order, some draft classes I had to mention as I looked back on how teams did between 2005-2011:

2005 St. Louis Rams The Rams didn’t get a whole lot out of this draft class, but the rest of the NFL did: Alex Barron was a bust, but CB Ron Bartell, FS O.J. Atogwe, and G Richie Incognito were all in this class as well.  In the later rounds: Reggie Hodges is now Cleveland’s punter, Ryan Fitzpatrick is now Buffalo’s starting quarterback, and Madison Hedgecock is one of the best FBs in the league for the Giants.  The only thing those last six players all have in common is that they were all drafted by the Rams in 2005.

2009-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Bucs have done a better job drafting over the last three years than any other team.  Their 09 and 2010 drafts just missed the cut for this list, and their 2011 draft probably would have been the first one on from this season.  Since Mark Dominik has become their general manager, the Bucs have completely rebuilt their passing offense (Josh Freeman, Arrelious Benn, Sammie Stroughter, and Mike Williams have been paired with Kellen Winslow, who cost Dominik a second round pick), repaired a young offensive line that flashed greatness in the 2007 playoff season, and drafted every member of their four man defensive line with the lone exception of Stylez G. White (and his replacement, Da’Quan Bowers, is in the fold as well).

2007 Minnesota Vikings If Adrian Peterson was a dominant Oklahoma quarterback instead of a running back, this would probably be the draft that delivered the Vikings a super bowl championship in 2010.  Instead it’s Aaron Rodgers who lifted the trophy, but that doesn’t mean that this Brad Childress draft was any less excellent.  Sidney Rice in the second round is a cold steal these days, and if the lasting legacy of Brett Favre as Vikings QB is that he threw to and developed Sidney Rice, then he was almost worth the trouble he caused.  Also in this draft for the Vikings: DE Brian Robison and QB Tyler Thigpen.

2008 Baltimore Ravens/Atlanta Falcons/Miami Dolphins  All three of these teams drafted effective quarterbacks in 2008.  Matt Ryan has been the most effective of the three today, while Joe Flacco and Chad Henne have been about equally effective.  No doubt thought that Flacco has had much more margin for error on the Ravens than Henne received with the Dolphins.  I think it’s far from decided that Matt Ryan is going to be the best of this group, as he has to raise his periphrial stats to match his late game heroics.  With Julio Jones in the fold, we’ll see if that helps or hinders Ryan.

The Falcons 2008 draft looked a lot better a year ago than it does now.  Ryan looks every bit the no. 3 pick, but it’s not certain that Sam Baker is the long term solution at LT.  Harry Douglas went from slot receiver project to injury prone to not an NFL quality receiver in two years.  Thomas Decoud, Kroy Biermann, and Curtis Lofton look like major players in the Falcons defense going forward.  Chevis Jackson has busted.  Right now, this looks like a pretty standard “team finds a franchise QB draft”.  You could argue that this is still at least as strong as the Green Bay 05 draft, but I’d say there’s a pretty big chasm between Rodgers and Ryan right now.

The Ravens may feature a stronger 2008 draft: Flacco, Ray Rice, Tom Zbikowski, Tavares Gooden, and Haruki Nakamura.  I would definately take the Falcons trio of defenders over Baltimore’s from this draft (1 starter), but Ray Rice and Flacco might prove to be a better offensive duo than Matt Ryan alone.

Meanwhile, 2008 was the one really good draft that Bill Parcells had with the Dolphins, the jury is still out on Henne, but Kendall Langford was a steal and Jake Long has already obtained pro-bowler status amongst offensive linemen.  Guard Donald Thomas has made his way into the starting lineup and Jalen Parmele and Lex Hilliard are both still very relevant backs in the NFL.  On the other hand, Phillip Merling looks the part of a bust.  The Falcons still probably had the best 2008 draft of the three, but it’s very close and if Matt Ryan loses his stranglehold as the no. 1 QB from this abnormally strong class, the Falcons will likely cease to have the best draft of the three teams with first year head coaches.

2009 Detroit Lions  The 2009 Lions are very close to making the top ten drafts list with this still-strong effort from 2009: Pettigrew, Delmas, Levy, Sammie Lee Hill, Follett, Dan Gronkowski, but the passing duo of Matthew Stafford and Derrick Williams needs to play up to it’s draft status for this class to crack the top ten.

2009 Jacksonville Jaguars Really good class for Jacksonville here, and I would argue that those predicting great things for Lions the next couple of years not lose sight of a Jacksonville team that has done just as well in the draft the last few years.  Monroe and Britton at tackle, Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton is playing like a no. 1 DT, and the team still believes in Derrick Cox at corner.  Mike Thomas is now the no. 1 receiver on this team.  In the last rounds: Zach Miller, Rashad Jennings, Tiquan Underwood, all still contributors on the Jags offense of the here and now.  Of all the honorable mention classes, this one has the best chance of supplanting at least the 2005 Packers, if not others, on the top ten list someday.

The fact that there is no obvious Colts draft to put here.  The Colts have had really good drafts, and I thought for sure their 2010 draft would take the cake (I also really like their 2011 draft).  But the Colts have averaged, almost perfectly I might add, two top contributors a year, and have been unable to find a third starter.  In 2009, getting Jerraud Powers and Austin Collie in the third and fourth round looks great, two elite NFL performers in the mid-rounds, but in the first two rounds they took Donald Brown and Fili Moala.  Jamie Thomas is…sort of a starter on the OL, but only out of necessity.  In 2008, the Colts drafted Jacob Tamme early and Pierre Garcon late, but in between, they added Phillip Wheeler and Mike Hart.  No solid third starter there.  Clint Session is the best player they took in 2007, and they got him late, but early on they took Anthony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh, both who have offered only tantalizing careers to date.  In 2006, the Colts got Joseph Addai early and Antoine Bethea late, but only Tim Jennings and Charlie Johnson in between.  Only Kelvin Hayden from the 2005 draft is still with the team.

The Indianapolis Colts have drafted well every year, but never well enough to have a great class.  As it should be, with the Colts.

2006 Denver Broncos Widely hailed as Mike Shanahan’s best draft with the Broncos, it delivered the goods in terms of headline names, but those assets have declined once Shanahan moved on in his career.  It’s hard to know what to make of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall these days as they are fairly disappointing players on their second teams.  Tony Scheffler is a great receiving TE who has the misfortune of being cast as the no. 2 guy on the hometown Lions.  Chris Kuper is still a valuable starter.  Elvis Dumerville looks like the best player in the class, but is coming off an injury, and the uncertainty around him makes this a top 15, but not top 10 class in the last 6 drafts.

2007 Pittsburgh Steelers I had this class in the top ten until the very end, because more than any other of the Steelers drafts, it put the pieces in place for the 2008 championship run.  Six of the players drafted in this class are still with NFL teams, though Ryan McBean is fighting off competition in the Broncos 3-4 front, and likely won’t make John Fox’s defense.  And Daniel Sepulveda, while great at his craft and all, is a punter still.  But the other four: Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Matt Speath, and William Gay, all played major roles on the 2008 championship run.  Maybe not an elite draft class, but still one of the better ones in the last six years, and can be linked directly to a super bowl title.

2008, 2010 Arizona Cardinals Two of the four most recent drafts for the Cardinals under Ken Whisenhunt have been incredibly good, but the one I liked most of the four right after draft day has been a complete washout.  According to process points, I feel like the Cards did everything right, but they still ended up with Beanie Wells and Cody Brown with their first two selections in 2009.  Brown is already out of the Cards organization, and the Ryan Williams pick can’t be seen as anything but dissatisfaction with Beanie Wells after two years.   I mean, they don’t exactly have complementary skill sets.  Quietly though, that bust of a 2009 draft is bookended by a Rodgers-Cromartie, Calais Campbell, Early Doucet, Tim Hightower, Brandon Keith 2008 draft on one end, and a Dan Williams, Daryl Washington, Andre Roberts, O’Brien Schofield, John Skelton, Jorrick Calvin draft on the other.  Add in Patrick Peterson and Williams in 2011, and the Cards have had three great drafts since 2008, which is something that not many teams at all can claim.

2006-2008 Carolina Panthers The total run of the process points system began in 2009 (it actually debuted in 2008 when I wrote for MVN, but those records are available only by way of RSS feed, so I dont have them).  And no team has done less with more in the last three years of drafts than the Carolina Panthers.  The Bears have done less with less than the Panthers and the Chargers have suffered a similar decline in draft day results.  But the Panthers haven’t enjoyed a good draft day in many years.

This is notable because from 2006 to 2008, perhaps no team drafted as well as the Carolina Panthers.  Their 2006 class was headlined by DeAngelo Williams, Richard Marshall, James Anderson, and Rashad Butler, the first three starters on the Panthers, and Butler who as developed into one of the league’s best offensive linemen (he is now with the Texans).  They may have done better in 2007 with LB Jon Beason, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, and TE Dante Rosario around the bust pick of WR Dwayne Jarrett.  2008 featured two first round selections: RB Jonathon Stewart and OT Jeff Otah, three defensive starters in Charles Godfrey, Nick Hayden, and Dan Connor, and also a couple of offensive prospects in Gary Barnidge at TE, and Geoff Schwartz on the OL with Mackenzie Bernadeau as well.  Any of those Panther classes could arguably crack the top ten of the last six NFL drafts.

It got progressively worse from there.  The Panthers now have a little bit of talent left over from those drafts that is near contractual expiration, and not much from the three most recent draft.

Process points…are kind of a big deal.  When grading the 2011 NFL Draft, that is.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with process points, they function as a way to grade a draft instantly and objectively without worrying about what players will eventually become or whether my pre-draft grades were accurate.  Process points give points for the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and reward teams for playing the market well through trades and draft picks.  The draft is an event where each team can only better themselves, and while each team has to be able to actually better themselves just to keep up with other teams, points are not subtracted away from teams for making reaches.

The worst thing you can do with a draft pick is waste it, so if a pick is totally wasted in the first round, a team gets a zero.  If it’s not optimally used, it will get some compensation between 0 and the max.  For the first 16 picks, a team can receive up to five points for a draft choice, in the next 16 picks of the round, 4 points is the maximum.  For the second round, teams are either awarded three points for a sound pick, or get zero points for missing the market entirely.  All trades are either given two points if they were perceived to be overall beneficial, or zero points if they were not perceived to be beneficial.

The average number of process points given out in this draft was 6.78 points/team (down about a half point from last draft), with 7 points representing the median value.  Not coincidentally for a well-designed measure of draft-day aptitude, a team that picked in the lower half of the first round and the second round, and made no trades but hit on both picks would get precisely 7 points.

Process points is as much a measure of opportunity of aptitude, so the one team that scored 0 points in process points was the Carolina Panthers, who picked Cam Newton at no. 1 for reasons I deemed to be “non-football” reasons, then didn’t pick again.  Process points is unconcerned with a teams ability to capitalize on the later player-development based rounds.  Teams that draft well will do better because they draft well, but they won’t outproduce the teams that can develop their own talent.

Without further delay, lets get to the two teams that played the draft the best — before the other 30.  Oh look, wouldn’t you know that the apple didn’t fall far from the tree. Format is <Rank. Team Name (score)>.

1. Washington Redskins (15): Process points is all about trying to strip personal biases from grading the draft: I may not like Jake Locker for example, but the Titans are still going to get a reasonable mark on drafting him because they didn’t have a quarterback and identified him as a guy to solve that need, and took him at value.  So one of my toughest decisions came in the second round with the Washington Redskins drafting DT Jarvis Jenkins about a round ahead of his value.  I made the decision that, historically, I would have granted points to teams filling a need with a reasonable grab if there was no reason to suspect that said team overbought the market.  In this case, I didn’t see a more dominant run defender come off the board in the next round or so, so that mitigates the reach.

Washington is the first team, and probably the only team ever, to finish in the top five in process points heading into the draft without a pick in either the third or fourth round.  That’s a major disadvantage to the system, and by all accounts, the Redskins won the draft.  The only thing I dinged them for a little bit is losing their gamble that Robert Quinn would make it to no. 16 after the trade down with Jacksonville.  I feel Ryan Kerrigan fits their system better, but didn’t offer the full points because if I would have given 5 points for taking Quinn at 10, Kerrigan gets 4 points at no. 16.

2. Denver Broncos (13): It may be a referendum on the process points system that the Denver Broncos, of all teams, now sit at the top of the three-year listings.  This means one of two things if the system works: either the Broncos cannot properly evaluate talent under Brian Xanders, or a rebound is coming much sooner than people think this team is capable of.  By 2012, Denver should have one of the stronger linebacking corps in the AFC, and it is around that point that they will have to rebuild their defensive front and secondary.  This was a defensive heavy draft, so we will see if the offense that Josh McDaniels built is strong enough to develop and endure beyond his reach, but the Broncos should be loaded with young talent by this time next year.

3. Detroit Lions (11): It may be time to point out that the post-Millen Detroit Lions traded Roy Williams to the Dallas Cowboys, and on the strength of that trade, have rebuilt the franchise into a young, talented playoff contender.  You’ll realize I’m hardly alone in my assessment that the Lions, as currently constructed, are ready to contend in the NFC, but they themselves drafted this year like a team that thinks it’s getting close.  Mikel LeShoure was my number one rated running back.  The Lions sold the middle portion of the draft to get him as their second running back.  It capped their process points total for this draft at 11, and essentially concluded a draft where most of the help they received came on the offensive end.  The Lions drafted to their strengths, instead of their weaknesses, continuing a trend started in 2009 when the team took Matthew Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew in the first round to add to the worst defense that anyone had ever seen in 2008.  The strength of a playoff run will come on the backs of the offensive talent.  As it should be.

4. San Francisco 49ers (10): I think the consensus on the Aldon Smith pick was that it was a slight reach by the 49ers, but there are two things to consider here.  Primarily, the lynchpin of the Niners entire draft was QB Colin Kaepernick.  But they never sold the farm to get him.  But secondarily, the majority of NFL GMs had exactly five players on their boards rated in the elite class, and as I’ll discuss in the Falcons grade, a team just came up from 26th to get a player with a “win now” grade.  What was left in that class was, debate-ably, Nick Fairley, who wouldn’t go until pick 13.  Aldon Smith was one of the BPAs at the time the 49ers took him, and that wasn’t a very valuable pick they had: anyone going upward to 7 would have been targeting Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert.  The niners absolutely needed an edge rusher and still got their quarterback at 35th overall with a perfectly timed trade, occuring only after Andy Dalton was drafted by the Bengals.  Nerves of steel in this war room, I’ll tell you that.

T5. Kansas City Chiefs (9): This was an interesting calculation.  Jon Baldwin is a system receiver, and in the current Kansas City offense with Matt Cassel throwing the football and Dwayne Bowe playing a single side receiver, Baldwin is a no. 1 type, and worthy of a first rounder.  The Chiefs, knowing there was limited competition for the player, traded down five picks with the Browns, then got Baldwin anyway.  Beyond that, Rodney Hudson filled a major need on the interior for the Chiefs, and was a huge steal at the point he was taken.  This analysis also ignores my favorite pick of the Chiefs draft: LB Justin Houston in the third round. In the past, I’ve dinged Scott Pioli for doing nonsensical things: he ultimately built a Chiefs team last year that rode a weak schedule to a division title and wore down just when it needed to be peaking.  But he and his team did a good job in this draft.

T5. New England Patriots (9): This is one of the lower grades I’ve given the Patriots, who managed to reload for next year’s draft fairly effectively, but came away with little certainty after the first two rounds.  They scored right away with a trade to New Orleans for next year’s first rounder.  But the Nate Solder pick couldn’t get the full complement of points, as he’s a long term projection in development, and the Patriots had enough short-term assets to do better than that.  Solder was the second tackle taken.  I felt the second round, usually the money round for the Patriots, was a bit of a disaster.  Ras-I Dowling profiles as a nickelback on the Patriots over the life of his rookie contract, and that was perhaps the most valuable pick in the draft the Pats used on him: 33rd overall.  Then they came together and took Shane Vereen in the second round.  The Pats got full points on that because they just barely beat a run on RBs, getting their choice of the litter (and adding Stevan Ridley later).  Vereen also profiles to help the Pats win as a rookie.  About half the Pats process points came from trades.  This grade has more to do with the Pats being pick-loaded every year than doing a good job on draft day.  Hey, whatever works, right?

**A quick point I wanted to make about the last two teams: after three seasons of Pioli in KC instead of New England, the Patriots rate as the best team in terms of drafting over the last three years, and the Chiefs are smack dab in the middle of the pack at no. 16 in 2009-11 process points.  That’s not definitive, as Pioli left all his resources behind in New England when he took the KC job, but it’s interesting that looking at everything he’s done in KC and what NE has done since, it appears Kansas City has a fairly average front office, and New England remains the model.  It’s also worth saying that the primary driver of the 2010 Chiefs playoff run was not anything Pioli did, but the final Herm Edwards/Carl Peterson draft in 2008: Glenn Dorsey, Branden Albert, Brandon Flowers, Jamaal Charles, and Brandon Carr were all 2008 draft picks by the Chiefs.

T7. Arizona Cardinals (8): Arizona passed on a quarterback to draft Patrick Peterson, which speaking long-term, is the right move.  The Cardinals were dreadful last year at the QB position, but that’s not a reason to take a second rate QB over an elite player at another position, and Peterson topped by board.  I struggled more with the Ryan Williams pick, because he’s stylistically similar to Beanie Wells, and only makes sense if the Cardinals aren’t actually planning on increasing Wells’ workload this year, because he’s prone to injury and fumbling and ultimately, they do not trust him.  That’s a tough thing to admit about the 2009 first rounder, but the Cards need to be able to run the ball.

T7. Cincinnati Bengals (8): Cincinnati passed on a quarterback to draft A.J. Green, which speaking long-term, is the right move.  The Bengals entered the draft with a gaping hole at the quarterback position, and weren’t desperate to fill it, and are rewarded as such with an above average process point rating.  The big thing about Andy Dalton was that the Bengals intelligently didn’t go up to get him despite the high grade they had on him.  Dalton is a year to year guy: he’ll need to be evaluated after the year to see if he’s developing NFL attributes.  He did it in college, so it wouldn’t shock me if he did become the Bengals franchise QB.

T7. New Orleans Saints (8): I think too many analysts are ignoring the obscene price tag the Saints paid the Patriots for the ability to draft Mark Ingram.  They could have just taken Ingram at 24th overall and not traded anything away.  I’ll say this: the Saints took Cameron Jordan with that pick, and he had fallen unexpectedly far, and when Gregg Williams picks a defensive lineman in the first round, you know he’s the real deal.  But he’s not really an edge rusher in the truest sense.  And Ingram at no. 28 isn’t somehow better for the Saints than Mikel Leshoure was for the Lions a whole round later.  But the Lions have already paid off that bill.  The Saints paid as much as the Lions did in 2011 picks and will still be paying in 2012.

T10. Baltimore Ravens (7): Jimmy Smith is the kind of player that a team like the Ravens gets late because of the strong team infrastructure that already exists.  He fills a big need for them, and other teams who have the same need shy away because they don’t buy into him as a professional.  I did consider giving the Ravens two points for their ‘failed’ trade with the Bears, but it’s not fair to assume they would have still landed Smith, and since Smith got all the points possible, that would have been double counting.  Torrey Smith in the second round is a boon, and should develop faster than Titus Young with the Lions.

T10. Green Bay Packers (7): I’ve come to realize that Process Points hold a bias against the teams that play in the super bowl the prior year based on draft position.  Negotiating a trade down costs a team points on the back end, no matter how well they draft.  It didn’t specifically hurt this year, as the Pack got full points possible on Derrick Sherrod and Randall Cobb, but it could be remedied in the future.  I’d also like to say that, anecdotally, the Packers had a really good draft, top five amongst all teams this year.  The performance of their defense in the regular season enabled them such a luxury as to draft an offensive tackle and receiver to this offense.

T10. Indianapolis Colts (7): I really liked the Colts draft, but the trade up in the second round by the Colts to get Ben Ijilana didn’t prove obviously necessary to land their man.  So the Colts get just three process points in that round, added to the four they get from the first round for addressing their offensive tackle need with Anthony Castanzo to protect Peyton Manning as it becomes more and more critical to keep the aging Manning from taking hits.

T10. Jacksonville Jaguars (7): The only variable in the Jaguars draft grade is their trade up for Blaine Gabbert.  The million dollar question, of course, is whether the Jaguars will get more long term value out of Gabbert than they would have gotten from the two defensive players they likely would have taken with their first and second round picks.  Chances are that, for a quarterback starved team like Jacksonville, they probably will get more use out of Gabbert than out of two players on the defensive end of the ball.  The trade up cost them their second round pick, but in this case, it was warranted by the market, so the Jaguars get points for a successful trade up.

T10. New York Giants (7): The Giants, I felt, did better in the middle rounds than they did in the first two rounds.  They got good value on their first round pick, Prince Amukamara, who profiles as a second corner on the Giants, to be the player that Aaron Ross wasn’t.  But Amukamara is never going to be an impact corner; his value will be obtained over long stretches of good plays.  Marvin Austin on the other chance can make a much stronger chance to make an impact for the Giants.  The two problems with this draft, for me, is no help on offense for Eli Manning, and that Austin goes into a DT rotation where one has yet to emerge as dominant.

T10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7): The Steelers drafted on the lines in the first two rounds, a luxury they were afforded by the fact that they have plenty of impact players already on both sides of the football.  Both Cameron Heyward and Marcus Gilbert are good value picks, but one may wonder if the Steelers couldn’t have done better grabbing the offensive player (Derrick Sherrod) in the first round and hitting up the defense in the second round.

T10. San Diego Chargers (7): The Chargers spent their entire early draft on defense, which didn’t make great sense to me given the makeup of their team.  Corey Liuget gives the Chargers great scheme versatility and an impact player on the defensive line, a really good first round pick.  But Marcus Gilchrist was a bad reach in round two, and while I’m sure the Chargers have a better idea about where he will play than I do, I can’t see him breaking their lineup anytime soon.  They traded up for the athletic Jonas Mouton, who will be depth amongst the linebackers in year one.  Mouton and Liuget give the team flexibility to play either a 4-3 or 3-4 in future seasons, but the Chargers added no help to an offense that took a step back in 2010 (even if their quarterback, Philip Rivers, played as well as ever).

T10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7): Tampa Bay had the dominant draft everyone felt Detroit had, and in particular, I like the way that Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers complement each other.  There was an element of luck here as well, because when the Bucs opted (narrowly) for Clayborn over Bowers in the first round, it couldn’t have been apparent that they would have another shot at Bowers, and not have to trade up for him as well.  In the short term, I’m more worried about Clayborn because I don’t know how much of his sack production is a mirage against weak competition, but I can assure you that Clayborn and Bowers make the Tampa Bay run defense far better, which was the team’s biggest weakness last season.

T10. Tennessee Titans (7): I didn’t give the Tennessee Titans full points for their selection of Jake Locker because, by all accounts, they made a pretty huge reach to take him when they did.  It’s not beyond fathomable that Tennessee could have taken Nick Fairley and made a play for Locker using their second round pick.  But two things are clear here: Tennessee didn’t want to gamble with their quarterback situation by putting it on what would be left, and they identified edge rushing, not interior line play, as the needy defensive area.  So by picking Akeem Ayers in the second round (Ayers is the draft’s poor man’s Von Miller), the Titans upgraded the defense with an impact player, and didn’t have to risk their QB situation to do it.  Locker likely won’t be accurate enough to be the Titans franchise QB, but Herm Edwards made a good point: this team won games with Vince Young and Kerry Collins.  Clearly the infrastructure to sustain winning with Locker is in place.

T19. Houston Texans (6): The JJ Watt pick was a bit stunning, and the Brooks Reed second round selection was far less stunning, but the Texans made the same fundamental mistake on both picks: they overdrafted non-impact players projecting them to a 3-4 front.  I gave the Texans nothing for Brooks Reed, and gave them a little for Watt because his selection at least shows a purpose to improve the defense through scheme, since hoarding talent on the front seven never worked.  Watt also got a point because he can be a three down lineman for the Texans, coming off the interior in pass rushing situations where Mario Williams’ hand is down.  I think this defensive switch will work for the Texans because Williams will be a movable piece matchup nightmare for offenses, not because Watt or Brooks Reed were good selections.  And Brandon Harris was a shrewd trade up and flat steal for the Texans in their secondary, accounting for more than 80% of the Texans’ process points for this draft.

T19. Minnesota Vikings (6): This was probably the best Vikings draft in recent memory top to bottom, but process points looks at only the first two rounds, and also sees the Christian Ponder pick as the Vikings misreading the market.  No quarterbacks were taken between Ponder at pick 12 and Andy Dalton at pick 35.  The Vikings, essentially because of their need at the QB position, ended up handing Nick Fairley to a division rival instead of adding him themselves.  Ponder does get a good percentage of the process points because the Vikings’ quick trigger was understandable given that Jake Locker went way earlier than projected and the Jags had just traded up ahead of the Vikings to get Blaine Gabbert.  Understandable does not always mean correct.  Kyle Rudolph was just a really good pick for the Vikings to pair a talented TE with a QB like Ponder.  It’s all about building to your offensive strengths in the NFL, and Rudolph does it all.  It will always be a little dicey for Rudolph playing his home games on the artificial surface of the Metrodome, but still, full process points to the Vikings for stopping his slide.

T21. Atlanta Falcons (5): The Falcons traded up to no. 6 for Julio Jones, which is a move that Process Points likes a lot more than I do.  Process points sees Julio Jones as an opportunity to grab an elite offensive player, and the trade up to no. 6 as a bare bones necessity to acquire that level of talent.  The Falcons received two points for the aggressive trade up, a trade that could not have waited any longer and brought the Falcons any immediate impact offensive help (beyond this trade, you’re looking at sitting tight at 26 and taking either Mark Ingram or Kyle Rudolph or Torrey Smith or Jon Baldwin).  Now, in my evaluation, Jones’ college career at Alabama could not have dictated him as a first round pick: he just didn’t get his offense in the end zone enough, up to and including his breakout 2010 season.  And that’s the player that the Falcons are getting at no. 6: not a gamebreaker or a touchdown scorer.  However, I don’t believe Jones at no. 6 is a measurably worse pick than the 2004 selection of Larry Fitzgerald at no. 3 overall to the Cardinals, and Jones actually has a better chance to succeed in Atlanta than Fitzgerald, who made a pretty good career for himself, after being taken by the hapless Cardinals.  I would not have done this trade.  The Falcons gave up way too much to get Julio Jones.  But as part of the larger idea of a team building process, the trade is at least defensible and process points treats it as such.  If Jones isn’t a pro bowler in Atlanta, this is the fault of the Falcons for overvaluing him in the draft.

T21. Buffalo Bills (5): Process points on the other hand takes the alternative perspective on the Bills draft, which as it lauds the Broncos for nabbing Von Miller at no. 2 despite outside assessments that he’s not a “scheme fit” (and that Dareus somehow was?), it looks at the Bills roster and wonders why that team, as currently constructed would select Marcell Dareus for it’s defensive line when both A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson (and speaking for process points over my player evaluations, Julio Jones as well) still on the board.  Dareus was my highest rated defensive lineman, and will produce surprising results as a pass rusher.  But I think, to take a defensive lineman in the top three, the results of such a pass rusher cannot be surprisingly effective, you actually need to be selecting a player who will be expected to cause problems for quarterbacks for the next five to seven years.  Dareus is a good all around player with few, if any, weaknesses, but will he be a better defensive lineman or a good complement for Kyle Williams?  And who is going to rush off the edge for the Bills? I don’t think Dareus makes the Bills defense better as much as he makes it deeper up front.  And the Bills need, absolutely need, impact players.  Dareus might be that, but he also will likely never be heard from again in Buffalo.  I liked the Aaron Williams pick in the second round for the Bills, but even he really needs to look better for the Bills in a couple years than Ras-I Dowling looks for the Patriots.  If not, the Bills wasted a golden opportunity to make gains in the AFC East with a top five draft pick.

T21. Chicago Bears (5): I took the unprecedented step of subtracting two points from the Bears total for the combination of misreading the market to make a poor trade up for Gabe Carimi, then actually failing to call the trade into the league office, benefiting in the process by way of being able to trade up in the second round for Stephen Paea.  The Bears received full points for Carimi and Paea however as they work to rebuild their lines and try to get some future value on a Tommie Harris trade.

T21. Cleveland Browns (5): Cleveland made a really good trade down netting two process points, but more importantly a first round pick in 2012.  But then their draft was really perplexing.  Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard are excellent pieces in a 3-4 front, which the Browns are not playing.  In a 4-3 front, Taylor is an overdraft.  Sheard is a decent pass rushing prospect whose development pretty much holds the key to this draft for the Browns.  Greg Little is a baffling pick at the end of the second round, the only piece of offensive help the Browns grabbed for Colt McCoy, but one who doesn’t have the polished route running ability necessary to help the Browns offense.  If Sheard develops into a QB killer, all is forgiven.

T21. Dallas Cowboys (5): The Cowboys screwed the pooch on the Tyron Smith pick, passing up an opportunity to trade down to no. 16 and draft Smith, while ensuring that the Washington Redskins would be unable to draft Blaine Gabbert.  The Cowboys in their hubris didn’t feel the Jags second round pick was worth the trouble of a trade down.  So then Washington took the same offer Jacksonville offered Dallas, and went on to top the list of process points.  They have the Dallas Cowboys to thank for making their draft.  The Cowboys got their guy, Smith, and Bruce Carter was a nice pickup in the second round, so this is all pretty nice drafting by the Cowboys, but they trail the Giants and Redskins in process points because they didn’t trade down.

T21. Miami Dolphins (5): The Dolphins are a mess right now, a mess that is starting to trend in the wrong direction after a couple of very sound Bill Parcells drafts.  Their picks on the defensive line of Phillip Merling and Jared Odrick have yet to displace Parcells pickups Tony McDaniel, Randy Starks, and Paul Soliai.  They tried to address the other line in the first round by picking Mike Pouncey to be their starting Center, seemingly an overdraft of a guy named Pouncey, who goes a couple of picks earlier in this draft than Maurkice went to the Steelers last year.  The Dolphins didn’t have their second round pick because they traded (foolishly) for Brandon Marshall, but aggressively dealt upwards in this draft to get Daniel Thomas, filling their other big offensive hole created by contract expirations: running back.  That trade wouldn’t have been necessary if not for the Marshall deal, one that I don’t believe a good organization would have made.

T21. St. Louis Rams (5): Robert Quinn figures to be the missing piece in the Rams defense, as they prepare themselves to not only make the playoffs, but win once they are there.  They got the full five points for that selection.  Quinn should slot in at right defensive end as a rookie.  But the selection in the second round of Lance Kendricks at TE seems foolish.  There are few pet peeves that get to me quicker than coaches who come in to a new situation and need to draft new tight end projects to replace the tight end projects taken in the last draft by the prior coach.  Wisconsin TEs have a long history of success in the NFL, so perhaps Lance Kendricks will continue that trend, but it seems like a meaningless use of a second round pick, compounded by the fact that the Rams spent the next two rounds drafting slot receiver types when they already have Danny Amendola in that specific role.  Sam Bradford needs help throwing outside the numbers, not inside them, because that’s typically where the big plays occur, and the only help will come in the form of Donnie Avery returning from injury, not from anything St. Louis did in this draft.

T28. New York Jets (4): New York has a troubling trend of averaging fewer than five picks per draft over the last three years, something that will eventually catch up to them.  But considering that the Jets almost completely rebuilt their defensive front in this draft with Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis, its hard to complain about this specific draft.  It’s the code of process that dictates that the Jets simply can’t win over the long haul trading second round picks for mediocre veteran talent such as Antonio Cromartie.  Let me demonstrate this point by showing the total amount of young offensive talent drafted by the Jets since taking Mark Sanchez fifth overall in 2009: a backup QB (Greg McElroy), two rookie WRs (Jeremy Kerley, Scottie McKnight), four RBs (Shonn Greene, John Connor, Joe McKnight, Bilal Powell), and two LGs (Matt Slausen, Vladimir Ducasse).  Best player amongst the bunch: either Greene or Kerley.

T28. Seattle Seahawks (4): The Seahawks had a really horrible situation on their offensive line, where the team’s starters at C, RT, and guard were all on their way out, and they had to make some picks on the offensive line just to field a team in 2011.  So that lead to the Seahawks drafting James Carpenter and John Moffitt in the first three rounds.  The team also traded out of the second round to try to recoup the pick they lost trading for Charlie Whitehurst.  In other terms, the Seahawks, at best, managed to maintain the status quo from last year without actually improving, just replacing expiring contracts with young talent.  At worst, these guys the Seahawks drafted can’t actually block.  If the Seahawks make a splash this offseason, it will be in free agency, and at the quarterback position.

T30.  Oakland Raiders (3): The only Raiders pick that counted here was the selection of Stefan Wisnewski to be the team’s starting center in 2011.  The Raiders had a similar problem to the Seahawks: an obscene amount of expiring contracts and no level of certainty to replace them thanks to no CBA.  The quality of the Raiders draft will be determined by the outcome of the two picks they obtained from New England at the cost of their second round pick in 2012.   They were going to address their secondary anyway, and did with DeMarcus Van Dyk and Chimdi Chekwa at corner.  But the Raiders will rely on LSU OT Joseph Barksdale and Eastern Washington RB Taiwan Jones to be worth the price that they paid for them, a second rounder in next year’s draft.  Barksdale could start for the Raiders in 2011, out of necessity, if nothing else.

T30.  Philadelphia Eagles (3): The Eagles low rank in this draft, and by process points in general, remains fascinating.  Can we use process points to conclude that time might be running out on the Eagles as a power in the NFC East?  Danny Watkins as a first round pick is troublesome for a few reasons, none of which reflects much on Watkins as a player.  But Watkins is 26.   It also means that all the mid round picks the Eagles have spent on offensive lineman over the past six years or so failed to yield a quality starter at the position, and Watkins needs to start for them from day one.  The Eagles aren’t going to be able to keep pace with the rest of the NFC making those kind of need picks.  Then in the second round, Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple should give the Eagles a developmental replacement for the aging, contract-expiring Quintin Mikell.  That’s a good pick and all, but the Eagles typically dominate the draft from the 2nd-4th round, and there just wasn’t much there this year for the Eagles, especially after spending their first round pick on a 26 year old guard.

32.  Carolina Panthers (0): The Panthers got zero process points for picking Cam Newton, and fall to one of the three worst drafting teams over the past three years.  The big thing on Newton was that the Panthers took him knowing they had no second round pick, and the league’s most dreadful passing offense last year, and a quarterback in Jimmy Clausen that badly needed help from this draft to develop.  They chose to start over with Newton, a fine decision in a vacuum, but football isn’t played in a vacuum.  This move, best I can tell, was designed to by GM Marty Hurney more time as GM of the Panthers, time that no doubt he doesn’t deserve.  If he doesn’t make this move, he’s not going to get the chance to develop Jimmy Clausen as Panthers QB, someone else will replace him and make that decision.  This draft pick was more about a power struggle than building a winning football team, and deserves no process points.

*****

Here are the cumulative leaders for process points from 2009 through the 2011 NFL Drafts, first and second rounds:

Rank	Team	Point Total
1)	Patriots	41
2)	Broncos	41
3)	Lions	35
4)	Browns	32
5)	Seahawks	29
6)	49ers	29
7)	Dolphins	25
8.	Redskins	24
9)	Ravens	23
10)	Bengals	23
11)	Bills	22
12)	Texans	22
13)	Buccaneers	22
14)	Cardinals	22
15)	Packers	22
16)	Chiefs	21
17)	Rams	20
18)	Saints	19
19)	Giants	18
20)	Steelers	17
21)	Colts	17
22)	Eagles	17
23)	Cowboys	16
24)	Falcons	16
25)	Jaguars	16
26)	Titans	16
27)	Raiders	16
28)	Jets	15
29)	Vikings	14
30)	Panthers	13
31)	Chargers	11
32)	Bears	7

Third to last post on this NFL draft.  I promise.  I have one to do on process points: long time readers of my work are very familiar with this activity (now in its fourth year).  I also have a FNQB to do on undrafted free agents, following up on the first ever FNQB, which was written almost a year ago.  This one, however, is a reaction to the post-draft reaction.  I have a problem with a couple of high consensus grades.

Here are the resources I am using for this article:

-NFL Draft Scout Prospect Board
-Optimum Scouting Top 400
-LiveBall Sports Big Board 

Cleveland Browns

This is one that stuck out to me.  There are plenty of experts out there lauding the Browns for the draft they had, starting with the trade down with the Falcons for Julio Jones, netting just an awesome return for a rebuilding team.  I probably shouldn’t call the Browns a rebuilding team.  But I don’t have a better word for “not there just quite yet in 2011.”  How about still-building?

After the trade down though, did anyone care to comment on the fact that the Browns reached on nearly every pick?  NFL Draft Scout rated Phil Taylor as its 28th best player.  Optimum Scouting had him at 40.  I had him at 63.  The Browns traded down to the 21st pick, then took him.  A justification of that pick has been that the Browns “needed” a specific type of nose tackle, but I thought they were moving to a 4-3 defense under Dick Jauron.  I know for a fact if you run a 40 front, you do not need to reach for a run stopper.

Jabaal Sheard is kind of the same deal.  He was a college DE projected to OLB in a 30 defense, which, again, the Browns are not playing.  Jabaal Sheard was graded as the 45th best player by NFL Draft Scout, Optimum had him at 21, I had him at 70, which definitely seems low because I like him as a pass rushing prospect.  But that’s solidly in the third round.  This isn’t really a reach, but there were better value picks available.  Greg Little, meanwhile, is being lauded as a second round steal when absolutely no one thought he ran routes well enough to be anything but a third day pick.  I didn’t have him in my top 150.  Optimum had him at 72.  NFL Draft Scout had Little at 150.  Little’s value was, optimistically, in the third round.  The Browns took him in the second.

In the first two days, the Browns landed two guys with second round grades and a guy with a fourth round grade.  The pick up of a first rounder next year was nice, but I don’t see this as a needs-solving draft, nor did the Browns get any sort of value on their picks.  Furthermore, if you use the value litmus test of removing special teams and defense to the equation and just strip football down to offensive point maximization, the Browns took an athlete receiver who needs to learn how to run routes, an athletic TE project who needs to learn the nuances of the position in order to replace Evan Moore, their current athletic TE who is still perfecting the nuances of the position, a fullback whose claim to fame is that he also played some linebacker in college, and an offensive lineman who profiles immediately as a backup.  Which is to say, they essentially added Greg Little to last year’s offense.  I don’t like that draft much.

Houston Texans

I don’t think Houston had a bad draft (conversely…I thought the Browns had a bad draft), but Houston has received high grades across the board, and I think the assumption that they now have the personnel to play the 3-4 defense is far from certain.  I don’t understand JJ Watt at no. 11.  NFL Draft Scout had him ranked 14th overall, and he certainly had the athleticism to pull such a grade.  But optimum had Watt at no. 25.  I said 27.  As in: late first rounder.  Further more, a 3-4 end in Wade Phillips’ defense isn’t supposed to be an impact player.  To justify a grade higher than 30th overall, one has to be an impact player.  Either Watt is going to be a poor scheme fit and will be asked to play the run far more often than he should be to justify his draft grade, or he is a good fit and was just overdrafted by a round.  Either way, it would be intellectually dishonest to think of the Watt pick as a synthesis of value and need, it was likely neither.

A lot of analysts really liked Brooks Reed, but aside from the teams that really did have a high grade on Reed (which apparently includes the Texans), the consensus I believe was that Reed should be in the second or third round based on how he profiles as a pass rusher.  I think there was a vocal minority who thought Reed would grow into being an elite pass rusher, but his grades from our sources are all over the map.  41 from NFL Draft Scout, 90 from Optimum, 74 from me.  The Texans drafted him at no. 42 overall.  That’s definitely not a value pick, but it’s right in the range where the most optimistic sources had Brooks Reed going.  Now if you’re the Texans, you have to convert Reed to a 3-4 OLB and hope he turns out to be exactly who you thought you were getting.  That’s not sound draft philosophy, and you’ll lose those gambles more than you’ll win them.

There’s nothing bad to be said about the trade up to draft Brandon Harris, however.  Optimum had him at 31, NFL Draft Scout at 35, and I had him at 23.  That’s a cold steal for the lacking Texans secondary.  The pick of Rashad Carmichael in the fourth round gives the Texans plenty of pieces on defense to rebuild that unit into a competent group.  But the offense received zero help from this draft, and the defense isn’t going to improve to above average without an impact player.

Detroit Lions

This is a draft that was universally loved.  Picking Nick Fairley at 13 almost had to happen, but the hyperbole about how strong the Lions defensive front is now with Fairley did not have to happen.  Fairley does not improve the Lions edge rush, and to get on the field, he has to take playing time from other more than able bodied defensive interior players.  It’s a really good situation for Fairley to go in and succeed, but the Lions defense is bettered far more in upcoming season than it was in 2011, when the DL was already certain to be a strength.  It’s a really good defensive line.  It is not the best DL in the league, and perhaps not in the top three.  And the back seven went nearly unaddressed.  LB Douglas Houge from Syracuse is a scouting pickup that strengthens this class greatly if he develops into a starter, but 31 other teams are not expecting him to.

Now, what the Lions did in the second round is essentially the meat of this draft.  If you like what they did there, you grade this draft really high.  If you don’t like what they did, this is a below average draft for Detroit.  I happen to like what they did with these two picks (WR Titus Young, RB Mikel LeShoure), but two things they did not do were fix a leaky offensive line that cannot run block, or add depth to the quarterback position.  Titus Young is a scheme fit WR as a deep threat who will play a very important role very early in his career.  LeShoure’s role is less specific, but his impact may be even more immediate.  Essentially, the Lions are asking LeShoure to run the ball behind an offensive line that isn’t great at run blocking, and make those handoff calls more than just a waste of a down.  That’s a tall task, and LeShoure is good enough to be offered the opportunity, but this could end up being a wasted pick with Jahvid Best already in the fold.  Young could easily bust as well, especially if he struggles to adjust to Matthew Stafford’s often erratic passes.

There is a low floor on this draft for Detroit.  Nick Fairley is certain to add depth, if nothing else, to the defensive line in year one, but if that ends up being the only thing Detroit gets out of this class, they wasted a year.  And when you rectify this against the fact that Detroit is getting lauded for the consensus best draft, you can’t justify that grade unless you believe completely in Young and LeShoure.  The value is there, but this is not a better than average draft.  Not, at least, in the days after the draft.  It’s simply a class with unlimited potential.

New England Patriots/Indianapolis Colts

I lumped these two teams together for a reason: they apparently went in with identical strategies, but the Patriots were far more loaded in terms of resources than the Colts were.  But there’s no question, looking at the draft classes, that the Colts came away with better players.  The Patriots picked OT Nate Solder at 17 overall, instantly causing all observers to forget how unconvinced everyone was that Solder could block top NFL rushers a week ago.  NFL Draft Scout had him at 23 overall.  Optimum said: 52nd overall.  I said: 39th.  There are legitimate questions as to whether Solder will ever be able to handle NFL defensive lineman without help.  The Patriots took him at 17th overall.  It’s a gamble; not one that can’t be won by New England, who is great at developing players, but how can it be assumed that Solder isn’t a reach by NE?  He clearly is.  Indy got a far better player at no. 22 in Anthony Castanzo.

The Patriots then took Ras-I Dowling in the second round, which wasn’t a horrible reach, but it was the first pick of the second day, and perhaps the most valuable pick in the entire draft.  And the Pats — with trade offers on the table — used it on a guy who they hope can be their second corner.  And who probably was only the best CB available on a couple boards.  It’s a highly questionable pick.  New England continued to reach for offensive help drafting RBs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley in the third round.  Obviously, both have 1,000 yard potential as Patriots backs.  And as a Redskins fan, I thank the Pats for leaving Roy Helu on the board until the fourth round, in spite of this strategy.  That was rather generous of you.

The best value picks made by the Patriots were Ryan Mallett at QB: a good investment as insurance for Brady and to convert into a high pick at a latter date, and Marcus Cannon, who is recovering from a scare with cancer which pushed him down the board.  Two good value picks sounds good, until you realize how many picks the Patriots were working with.  Then it’s just a normal day at the offense.

The Colts though, in the second round, grabbed a second lineman who had an overall grade of 24th from Optimum, and 34th from me (54th from NFL Draft Scout) in OT Ben Ijilana, who also fills a need.  With value on the pick.  The Colts simply didn’t have the resources in this draft the Patriots did, but they got way more from it than New England did.

New Orleans Saints/Oakland Raiders

Pointing something out here.  The Raiders received low draft grades for focusing on speed and rebuilding on the offensive front and defensive backfield (or where the team’s weaknesses lie) using two mid round picks obtained from the Patriots for next year’s second round pick, typically a very valuable thing to give up for two 50/50 shots at NFL regulars.  Not an unfair trade to the needy Raiders –who have an abnormal amount of expiring contracts to leverage against — but typically one that the Pats will win and the Raiders will lose.

New Orleans also made an identical trade to the Patriots of which the Pats will figure to win.  New Orleans traded up from the second to the first round at the obscene price of a 2012 first round pick, and then drafted a player in RB Mark Ingram that they could have just taken at no. 24 if they really thought him to be a transcendental runner worthy of trading “too much” for.  Apparently, New Orleans liked him enough to mortgage the future for, but not as much as Cameron Jordan.  No wonder the Saints loved their draft.  I’m just wondering why everyone else does.

According to Football Outsiders, New Orleans’ draft graded out as the 7th best, while Oakland’s was the 28th best.  They both made the same mistake in trading too much value to the Patriots.  The Saints clearly improved on draft day, but the Raiders and Saints should have had more similar grades.