LiveBall Sports

First things first: if you haven’t read Mike Tanier’s article which runs through the quarterback’s game — play by play – do so.  After reading that, it makes sense for me to defer the analysis regarding Michael Vick, and focus on the other parts of this game.

A LiveBall Sports Game Tape Review.

The first section focuses on the Jaguars defense and the Eagles offense.

• The Jaguars really have put an emphasis on getting after the passer after finishing 31st in the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of 3.8% last season.  This is something they are actually adept at this year, with Aaron Kampman looking every bit the part of a free agent steal and Tyson Alualu playing up to his lofty draft status.
• Behind that adept defensive line, Kirk Morrison has helped to stabilize the middle of their defense, making numerous big tackles in this game, particularly in short yardage.
• The Jags are an excellent case study for why having a pass defense is all about the quality of your defensive backs.  This team is a multiple front team that likes to bring blitzes in every down and distance, but they don’t have the personnel to be a blitzing team.  The secondary isn’t talented enough.
• Jacksonville is playing just an inadequate third down defense, matching up against the Eagles four receiver formations by going with six or seven defensive backs and taking nearly all their valuable defenders off the field.  For a team that hasn’t drafted but one DB in the first three rounds in the last five years, they are about as strong there as you would suspect.
• The Jaguars safeties are just too slow to play in the NFL.  Courtney Greene and Sean Considine cannot run.  They also don’t seem to understand how to adjust their angles to a speed disadvantage.
• I can’t think of a reason that the Jags would ever want to have more than five DBs on the field with their lack of depth.   They blitz too much for a team that can’t match-up on the back end.
• DeSean Jackson is an unbelievably explosive player who may never be as refined as he could be.  Jackson is as physically gifted as any receiver in this league, and should get open a lot more than he actually does.
• Jeremy Maclin is the opposite kind of player, like a rich man’s Todd Pinkston.  Maclin is a fantastic route runner and can really get open in any field.  He is, however, timid over the middle, and doesn’t attack defenses after the catch like Jackson does.  Jackson and Maclin are excellent complementary players.
• Speaking of complementary, the Eagles use Jason Avant in so many different ways, including as a pass protector in a lot of formations.  He’s a tight end in the body of a wide receiver, and would be one of the better blocking TEs in the league in that role.  You can throw the Eagles in with the Packers and Texans as potentially having the best receiver corps in the NFL.
• The Eagles offensive line is a problem area.  One of the reasons that Michael Vick is quarterbacking the Eagles right now has to do with the trade of Stacey Andrews to the Bills, and the fact that Jammal Jackson’s torn biceps has forced the Eagles to revamp their OL.  The Eagles are now a decidedly left-handed offense, which suits Vick well.  The strength of their formations leans to the left, either with Brent Celek or with Jason Avant setting the formation to that side.
• These changes have made LG Todd Herremans the centerpiece of most protections.  He was just mediocre in this game, and the Eagles require him to be better.  Vick will have decent protection as long as Herremans, Jason Peters, and Winston Justice stay healthy in front of him.  But the protection will be just adequate, and Vick generally needs to play more aware of what defenses are doing.  Washington may tee off on him next week.
• No player has benefited from Michael Vick at quarterback more than RB LeSean McCoy, and the second year back finds himself in the middle of a breakout season where he can slash and dash inside defensive ends who always have to read Vick first.  McCoy was already a really good prospect — one who had a good game in pass protection against the simplistic blitz packages of the Jaguars — but now is as dangerous as Brian Westbrook at any time in his career, thanks to the threat of Vick as a runner.
• Vick fits what the Eagles offense requires.  While there are still west coast concepts in play here, the Eagles are much more of a spread-vertical offense than a west coast offense.  This has really been the case for the last half-decade.  The terminology suggests they play one way, but the film on the Eagles suggest that they run a bunch of long drops and throw down the field.

This section focuses on the Eagles defense and the Jaguars offense

• This is likely a minority opinion, but I think QB David Garrard is an asset for the Jaguars.  He’s not a pre-snap reader, so the offense needs to by Garrard time, and his play fakes don’t do him any favors.  But when you keep pressure off of Garrard, he can really make quality throws for big plays.  The Jags receivers simply didn’t get any separation in this game, and the Eagles were clearly comfortable playing man underneath, but Garrard really stuck some throws on Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas.
• I think the Jags OL has a lot of things going for it talent-wise, but they looked all mixed up in this game, and it didn’t always take creative stunting from the Eagles to get hits on Garrard.  Center Brad Meester is the weak spot on this unit overall, but the Eagles had the match-up against RT Eben Britton there for the taking all day.
• I’m shocked that the Eagles soured on Juqua Parker.  Every time I watch him on film (which I’ve been doing for years), he dominates his competition.  We all know about Trent Cole on the other side, but when you consider how far the Eagles went to add pass rushing ends this offseason, you’d think Parker was a complete stiff as a complementary end.  He’s clearly a starter in this league.
• Jones-Drew is still a very explosive runner, but he doesn’t have very impressive vision.
• Every time the Jaguars dialed up a screen, the Eagles sniffed it out.  Every time.  This speaks to the dominance of the Eagles defense over the Jaguars offense that they not only could beat the blocks, but could feel when the blocks were….let’s say: not genuine.  The Eagles’ gameplan was to keep Jones-Drew out of open space where he’s one of the most dangerous players in football, and it worked.
• Jacksonville’s receivers are just overmatched against true NFL-level defense.  I don’t have a problem with either Sims-Walker or Thomas being in an NFL receiver rotation, but the Eagles don’t exactly feature the most fearsome cornerback duo and they won their gamble that they could take them out of the game with man coverage underneath.  Garrard made some good deep throws after the game was already out of reach.
• Garrard struggles with all sorts of pressure, and the Jags OL, while much improved, has a bad tendency to go the wrong way on both runs and passes.
• Asante Samuel is really nosy, and I’d be stunned if Kyle Shanahan and the Redskins didn’t design a couple of routes to take advantage of his aggressiveness next week.  The Jags didn’t have time to do much of anything creative in the passing game, but the Redskins should.
• Marcedes Lewis could be a top five TE in this league.  The Jags don’t seem to have any clue how to make him a valuable part of the passing game, but he’s one of the better run blocking TEs in football.  If he hits free agency next year, some team is getting a serious steal on a franchise TE.
• The Eagles linebackers just aren’t that impressive under Sean McDermott.  This safety tandem, however, is so far ahead of last year’s tandem, and makes the best use of the talents of a rare rookie (Nate Allen).
• Trevor Laws, who was a second round pick out of Notre Dame three years ago, really had a breakout game going against Meester and Uche Nwaneri on the interior.  He’s the third tackle right now, but could steal some of Mike Patterson’s reps.  The Eagles defensive line is a double-plus strength of the defense.
• Ellis Hobbs is very “meh” as a second cornerback.  I think the Eagles could regret the Sheldon Brown trade later this year.
• The Jaguars have a steal in no. 2 RB Rashad Jennings, a seventh rounder out of Liberty last year.  He plays like a second rounder.
• The days of Garrard being mobile are gone.  He’s 32.  He’s still an effective runner for a quarterback, but it’s now functional effectiveness, not explosive running.  Garrard is a statuesque pocket passer who will shred a defense if he has a clean pocket for an entire game.  The Eagles were not inclined to let that happen.

If you take the starts to the NFL season by the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs, you might have looked at the schedule just before the season and probably would have at least the possibility that each team could have started 3-0.  The Steelers weren’t playing a murderer’s row of teams, getting a strong Falcons team at home before going on the road to play the Titans and Bucs.  That’s an above average schedule, but the Steelers were number one in my pre-season power poll, and they were Peter King’s pick to win the super bowl.  I would have picked them to drop one of the three, but getting to 3-0 is hardly a surprise — I had them winning 12 games.

The Chiefs had one pitfall on their early schedule, a home game against a Chargers team, where if they got past it, the road to 3-0 was pretty wide open with simple execution. Sure, the Chiefs were an incomplete team who nearly fell to the Browns in Cleveland, but they won an ugly game, beat down the 49ers, and that’s good for a 3-0 start.  That was hardly unfathomable.

The only other undefeated team in the NFL, the Chicago Bears, are much more of a mystery.  Having to play at Dallas and home against the Packers early in the season was about as difficult an early schedule as any team in the NFL could be handed.  To make matters worse, the Bears were challenged blow for blow by the Detroit Lions at home in the season opener.  They almost dropped that one.  Certainly, they would have been incredibly fortunate to get to even 2-1.

And, yes, the Bears would have had to consider themselves fortunate to take two out of their first three games.  So imagine the surprise of league observers when the Bears not only eeked out a second win in the season’s first three games, but managed to get all three of them.

They’ve managed to do it behind a strong run defense and passing offense.  Every year, the Bears have great special teams, and while this year is no exception, they’re hardly in uncharted waters with long kick and punt returns.  They have no ability to run the football.  They can’t protect the quarterback.  Their zones are spacey and the pass rush inconsistent.  They are penalized fairly often.  Above all, they are 3-0.  Which of these facts doesn’t fit with the rest?

The madness regarding Chicago’s football team doesn’t really stop there.  Jay Cutler has been one of the league’s most efficient passers through three games, statistically.  But in Cutler’s case, he doesn’t even appear to be seeing coverages any clearer than last year when he threw a career-high 26 interceptions.  All offensive coordinator Mike Martz has done has taken the Bears’ problematic running game out of the equation entirely, and has just added to Cutler’s opportunities to make plays for his team.  It’s worked out so far, but it’s looked pretty ugly in the process.  None of the Bears’ big offseason plans have worked (save, perhaps, Julius Peppers), but the product is a 3-0 record that looks better when you consider their opponents, and worse when you actually watch the Bears do it.

Statistics, however, do not care how things look, or that Jay Cutler got four INTs called back against Green Bay by various interceptions.  At least one system views Mike Martz’ offense, led by Cutler, Johnnie Knox, Matt Forte, and Greg Olsen, as the league’s best through three weeks.  With the way they’ve pitched themselves out of a lot of 1st and 20 holes, why not?

The only recent comparable offense that the Bears remind me of is the pass-happy 2002 Raiders.  I don’t think that Jay Cutler is going to win league MVP or anything with the flaws he exhibits, but that’s the last offense I can remember that simply did not care about the run, threw to the backs as often, and ran screens with such efficiency.  This Bears team has a much better defense than that Raiders team did and those Raiders played in the super bowl.

Sure, that was a down year for the AFC, but have you seen the NFC this year?

If the Bears are indeed one of the early favorites to get the number one seed in the NFC, their fortunes could mirror that Raiders team as much as their offensive scheme already does.

With the San Diego Chargers sitting comfortably in an early season 1-2 hole after just three weeks, it’s not surprising that someone else is leading the AFC West, at least temporarily.  What could be construed as surprising is that 1) there have been no early season divisional wins to save the Chargers like there have been in past years, and 2) the popular alternatives to picking the Chargers, the Raiders and the Broncos, are sitting right along side the Chargers at 1-2.

Of course, you’re aware that the Kansas City Chiefs have ridden their home upset over the Chargers to a 3-0 start.  They didn’t look like all that against the Browns in Week 2, but the Browns have been better than the public was expecting over three weeks (despite losing all three games), and the defense played at an elite enough level to win a game that the offense had likely lost.  But the real shocker is not that they moved to a pre-bye 3-0 against the 49ers at home (the Niners aren’t a very good team), but it’s how they did it.  They beat down the 49ers, actually leading 31-3 with two minutes to go in the third quarter with every facet of their team working for them.

This is not some minor win against a bad tem.  After two weeks, the Chiefs looked like a much improved, but ultimately mediocre football team.  Now, they are second in the DVOA power rankings over at Football Outsiders.  It will be tough to hold that ranking when opponent adjustments kick in, but that’s the highest ranking given to a 3-0 team, narrowly edging out Pittsburgh.

The amazing thing is that the Chiefs aren’t even using their weapons optimally, nor did they have a great offseason, nor do they have a pro-caliber quarterback in Matt Cassel.  This variation of the Chiefs is almost entirely about defense and special teams.  Based on that, can the Chiefs sustain this performance?

It seems like they can.  The Chiefs have been able to generate a productive series of carries from an aging Thomas Jones who is on fumes whenever he carries the ball, so it’s not surprising at all that Jamaal Charles is gashing opponents whenever he touches the ball.  The running game has given Matt Cassel a play action type game as a weapon to throw down the middle of the field, making Tony Moeaki, a rookie, one of the most effective players at the tight end position through three games this year.  Moeaki is also an able blocker, which is how he’s working in this offense to contribute to the running game while benefiting from the passing game.

It’s not hard to see this running game getting shut down by better defenses.  I wouldn’t go as far as calling this offensive line a strength.  Charles is electric in the open field, but he needs strong linemen to help him move the chains.  Jones can’t keep going at this rate all season.  The Chiefs can hedge against this with a quality passing game, but they haven’t had that to date.

The defense should remain one of the league’s best all season, but they are going to get heat from the well developed passing games in their division: the Broncos and Chargers right now, and someday, the Raiders.  It’s not going to be an easy division to win in, the AFC West, but the Chiefs have the requisite talent to do so, and more than that, they’ve yet to play their best offensive football and they have a two game lead in the division.  In a division where there’s no clear favorite, it makes just as much sense to ride the talent-deficient, flawed team with the two game lead over all contenders over the flawed teams who are already chasing this early.

This team could finish as high as the no. 2 seed in the AFC, and with the way the season is started, it would not be surprising to our better senses if they won more than they lost from this point on out.

The competitive structure of Major League Baseball has a lot of things going for it right now.  And with 6 of the 8 playoff spots claimed, we can now say that one of the major things that this playoff field has is quality teams at the peak of their popularity.  The Yankees, Twins, and Phillies are joined in the playoffs by upstarts such as the Rangers, Reds, and Rays.

Ultimately, I think this is a good development for baseball.  This is a sport that loves it’s tradition, however, it’s hard for me to see how teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Angels, and Cardinals would actually make this October more captivating.  Those haven’t been the best teams this season, and them limping into the playoffs would not make the field more impressive.

Problem is, the teams that are playing the best baseball right now are not the teams that would impress most observers the deeper they went into the playoffs.  This is not to intentionally overvalue a few games at the end of the month of September, but almost all the playoff teams are playing incredibly undistinguished baseball.  The Phillies have been the strongest team this month, but they’ve represented the NL in the World Series two straight years.  I think the worst fear of a lot of casual fans is that the Phillies make it back to the World Series in a year where the NL field includes at least three other teams that haven’t been in the postseason since 2005.  They are certainly good enough to do it.

On the AL side, the Yankees are the one team that all of baseball will benefit from going as far as they can.  The AL East might be the lone example of the playoff system benefiting from the rule that prevents LDS match-ups between a wild card team and the division leader in it’s division.  This is not the year that you would want to match the Rays and the Yankees in the first round — those are your two biggest divisional round draws in the American League.  The Rangers are a nice story reaching the top of the AL West in a down year, but they haven’t benefitted much at least in the regular season from acquiring Cliff Lee from the Mariners in July.  I can’t fathom the Rangers taking down either the Rays or the Yankees in a five game series.  The Twins are a much more formidable opponent, and I happen to think that Rays vs. Twins would be one heck of a series to follow.  However, if the Rays sweep the Kansas City Royals to win the division, we know that they will draw the Rangers in the first round.

The NL pool is a lot more interesting, in the opinion of this blog, if both the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres find their way into the playoffs.  At this point, that’s probably a long-shot ideal.  The position of the San Francisco Giants in the standings right now allows them to go .500 the rest of the year and limp in unless the Braves and Padres combine to go 7-2 or something in their remaining games.  It would really be some feat if the Giants were beat three or more times the rest of the year, given that they can throw their two aces, Lincecum and Cain in more than half of their remaining schedule, if necessary.  The Braves would qualify as “injury-riddled” at this point, with no Martin Prado or Chipper Jones for the playoffs, who were their 1 and 3 hitters for most of the year.  The Padres would be talent deficient.

The Reds have a horrendous record against playoff quality teams this year, and given that the profile of all teams you’d meet in the playoffs qualify under the class of teams the Reds struggle with.  The most likely match-up for the Reds right now is the Phillies — and though that match-up is far from a certainty — that’s a series that could be short lived.  If the Giants were to get knocked out early by the wild card winner (this isn’t to make a prediction), you’d have a weaker team playing the Phillies in the NLCS to prevent them from a third straight World Series berth.  As such, you can see why the Phillies are such a heavy favorite right now.  It’s just not obvious who can beat them.

Personally, I’d love to see the Braves buck their historical trends and go to the world series as a team who struggled for a long time after the break.  That would be the best storyline of the remaining possibilities, and the Braves have the inside track for the wild card as we speak.  While a repeat of a Phillies-Yankees World Series looms large over the playoff field, the early clinches of the Reds and Rangers as well as some of the stronger upstarts in the field suggest that 2010 has the ability to produce new October outcomes for baseball’s playoff season.

The Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers NFL rivalry is steeped in great tradition, dating back to the inaugural season of the Packers in 1921.  The history is the foundation of the rivalry, one of the more significant hatreds in all of sports.  This hatred is remarkable, because if you look at the history of either team, you realize that: since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Bears and Packers have been one of the six best teams (thus, making the playoffs) in the NFC…in just two of 40 seasons.

Think about that for a second.  If we assume perfect competitive balance in the NFC, the probability of both teams making the playoffs in any given season since the wild card was added is around 20%.  That’s just in one season.  In more than thirty years, it’s happened just twice.  This is more remarkable once you realize that the Bears and Packers have each enjoyed decade-long stretches of dominance.  It’s almost worked out perfectly that when one team is up, the other is down.

In no decade has that tendency been more pronounced than this past decade.  The Packers had a post-super bowl era swoon in 1999-2000 as they evolved as a team, but in 2001, they rebounded and went back to the top of the NFC Central, sweeping the Bears.  Of course, the Bears beat their final 14 non-Green Bay opponents that year and remain champions of the Central to this day.  That 2001 season was the last time the Bears and Packers were in the same playoff field.  The Bears dropped down to league-worst levels for the next three years, as Brett Favre and the Packers pressured the Eagles for the title of the most dominant team in the NFC then.

After four consecutive playoff appearances, the Packers suffered through an injury riddled 2005 season, and ultimately a short rebuild.  This managed to overlap with the dominance of the Bears defense, the new Monsters of the Midway, as a league-best unit that took the Bears’ hapless offense to the playoffs in consecutive years.  Then the Bears were knocked from their throne by an upstart Packers team led by the then 38 year old Brett Favre.  The Packers have been to the playoffs two of the last three years, while the Bears have come up empty, even though the year the Packers went 5-11 (2008), the Bears were a Week 17 win away from playing in the postseason.

All of these factors make this game between the 2-0 Packers and the 2-0 Bears significant.  Both teams are among the favorites to make the postseason in the NFC this year, and the winner of this game in Chicago takes a stranglehold on the NFC North division this year.  For two rivals who have never met in the NFC postseason, this could be the year where the NFC North’s wild card team is strong enough to knock off one of the weaker divisional winners and meet their rival in the divisional round in the first elimination between the teams in the modern era.

If the Bears want to avoid a potential trip to Lambeau Field in January, the first step is to defeat the Packers on their home turf tonight.  Many analysts aren’t giving the Bears much of a chance in this game, but I think they would be perceived differently as a team if they hadn’t lost defensive superstar Brian Urlacher for the whole season last year.  The Bears weren’t going to the playoffs with that offense a year ago, but they ended up at 6-10 because the defense had it’s worst season in almost a decade.  This year, that defense is back to a fierce level, and it’s a unit that is bound to give QB Aaron Rodgers some fits.

Of course, the Packers defense has been remarkably strong as well over the last year and a month, and with LT Chris Williams’ scratched for the Bears, QB Jay Cutler needs to be both decisive and accurate with his reads to knock of the Packers.  Cutler is reliably one or the other of those characteristics, but rarely is he both.  Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are ‘X’ factor backs for the Bears: they do more in the receiving game for the Bears than any other backs do for their teams.

The new-look Bears are the most exciting team Chicago has had in the last 25 years, because they throw the ball all over the yard and play stingy defense.  Those taking them lightly based on last year’s results would be wise to get over results from last year: they weren’t a good team last year and that’s not relevant.  The Packers were a great team last year, and that’s not really relevant here either.  The Bears are not the Bills.  They will outlast the Packers tonight in a showdown on the Chicago lake shore.

If I were to characterize this draft class in terms of it’s quarterbacks, we’d have to think about guys with big arms, great frames, and limited accuracy.  Of course, it’s that last skill that will make or break a prospect at the next level, and a lot of guys that were projected to go high in this next draft simply do not have it.

For Jake Locker, perhaps the most touted NFL prospect in the class, the first three weeks of the season have been a disaster of sorts.  A win against Syracuse and a loss against BYU produced acceptable — but not NFL-type — results.  Locker was up around 60% in completion percentage, he had thrown for close to eight yards per attempt in those games.  Locker just needed a game against a strong college defense to show he could match up with the big guys.  He got that opportunity against Nebraska, a program with an elite defense.  Locker completed just 4 of 20 passes, threw two INTs, and didn’t even throw for four yards per attempt (which is actually pretty good considering those accuracy problems).

Jake Lockers line through three games this year is: completed 46 of 90 passes for 7.0 yards per attempt, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs.  His target completion percentage to be a legitimate first round pick is 70%.  If he throws 300 more passes this year, he would need to complete an obscene 227 of them to meet that mark.  Washington, more or less, won’t lose the rest of the year if Jake Locker is a legitimate first overall prospect.

Locker can’t really be blamed for any of this.  While he doesn’t appear to be much of an NFL prospect at quarterback, it’s not Jake Locker who has been going out of his way to remind you how lucky your franchise would be to have him.  That would be disinterested third parties who are trying to convince you of that.  Locker, to his credit, avoided being another Jevan Snead this year by actually going to pro executives and gauging his draft value before making the decision to come out.  On one hand, he’s probably going to hurt his draft stock going into this next draft.  But on the other hand, someone is going to take a flyer on him in some round next year, and if quarterback doesn’t work out, Locker is plenty athletic to go play another position…or baseball.

Where Locker has failed — changing his prospect make-up — is more along the lines of the status quo for a college quarterback.  There’s another potential pro prospect who is, right now, making a big deal out of himself by developing into a legitimate first-overall type quarterback right before our eyes: Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett.

What’s most impressive about Mallett’s numbers is that they aren’t unreasonably inflated by playing FCS competition.  Arkansas opened against Tennessee Tech, but Mallett threw for more yards against both Louisiana-Monroe, and Georgia, than in that first game.  He’s thrown for exactly three touchdowns in each game, with just two interceptions between the three games — and none against Georgia.  More importantly, his game-winning drive to beat Georgia included a bunch of NFL type throws, with the clock as a significant factor on the road.  While Locker was expected to have his breakout game against a strong defense, it was unquestionably Mallett who has separated himself as the early favorite to be taken first overall.

Ryan Mallett’s line through three games this year: completed 70 of 100 passes, for 10.8 yards per attempt, and 9 TDs to 2 INTs.  He’s right at the mark I set for him to establish himself as a legitimate first overall QB candidate in the next draft.  Mallett has done it against good competition as well, actually finding ways to raise his play when it matters most.

Neither of these guys is likely to be the first overall pick in next year’s draft if Andrew Luck of Stanford comes out (I don’t think he will).  Luck may be a once in a lifetime type prospect someday.  But for Mallett and Locker, the day where they have to take their resume to the NFL and try to sell themselves as leaders of an organization is drawing nearer.  Clearly at the moment, they are moving in opposite directions.

A LiveBall Sports Game Tape Review.

• This game was dominated by both defense.  Ultimately, the Vikings defense had more weaknesses exposed than the Dolphins did.
• Both offenses had one catastrophic turnover each that directly led to seven points for the opposition.  In a 14-10 game, that means that most of the scoring in the game was due entirely to offensive gaffes (read: fumbles inside own five).
• I greatly enjoyed Jared Allen looking to find the line of scrimmage after tackling Chad Henne before he decides whether to do his sack dance.  Allen was only a factor in this game when Henne stepped up in the pocket.  Big time MVP performance by Jake Long.
• The Dolphins started Paul Soliai at nose tackle in this game.  He’s no great shakes.  The Vikings were able to create running lanes when and only when C John Sullivan handled Soliai one on one.  Sullivan is an average center at best.
• What the Dolphins did in run defense in this game was very impressive.  They sealed all gaps and won at the line of scrimmage.
• The Vikings had success pulling their guards when Sullivan was able to control the middle.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Vikings finally got something going on the ground.  When they got into Dolphin territory on the back of the running game, they threw two out of three plays for nine yards.
• The Dolphins defense is a strength, but there are two main issues with it.  First, very limited team speed outside of Vontae Davis.  You need to make the Dolphins D run and run and run.  Secondly, they rotate their ILBs pretty liberally, but only Karlos Dansby and Channing Crowder can play in this defensive scheme.  Tim Dobbins is a notably bad defensive player.
• Bobby Carpenter was part of that problem, but he had a big stop on the goal line stand at the end of the game.  I feel like every defense needs a fourth LB who specializes in goal line play, and if Carpenter can be that guy, he can survive in this league.
• Dolphins DL Randy Starks, who started at nose in Week 1, is the best defensive player you’ve never heard of.  He was unblockable in this game, although neither Steve Hutchinson or Bryant McKinnie is a premier lineman at this point.
• Phil Loadholt might be the best tackle on the Vikings, but he’s going to be seeing Cameron Wake in his sleep for weeks.  This was a notable mismatch.
• Adrian Peterson looks as good as I’ve ever seen him.  He’s patient, explosive, and though the Vikings OL really rose to the challenge posed by the Dolphins run defense in this game, I don’t think Toby Gerhart (for example) would have anywhere near the success Peterson had with the same 28 carries.  There is no chance the Vikings come back to make the playoffs without giving Peterson 350 or more carries this season.
• Ultimately on a fourth and one run call that the Vikings needed to get, they neither put it in Favre’s hands on a quick sneak, nor did they get it to Peterson.  They handed to FB Tahi, who didn’t get back to the line of scrimmage.  Luckily, the Vikings benefitted from a make-up call on the spot, but the Brad Childress/Darrell Bevell playcalling duo is another liability the Vikings will have to overcome.
• As good as I think Chad Henne can be in this league, the Dolphins are still a rush heavy offense.  But in this game, both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown lost fumbles.  Both of the fumbles came on the first play following Favre INTs.
• On the drive at the end of the game where the Dolphins made the goal line stand: Favre, 0 pass attempts, Karlos Dansby, 2 defeats.  Whose FA money was more valuable when it counted, Dolphins or Vikings?
• I didn’t like the 3rd and goal playcall from the Vikings.  You need four yards in two plays.  They actually got three yards, setting up fourth and goal at the one.  I think you have a better chance to score with two throws than two runs or a run and a pass.
• The Dolphins OL was better than the Vikings DL in this game, however, the Dolphins offense was a non-factor in this game.  They scored on the opening drive, and never so much as a field goal the rest of the game.
• A note about 2006 1st round former “bust” Jason Allen: a sufficient domination of Bernard Berrian all game long, freeing 2nd year corner Sean Smith to cover the bigger, less explosive players such as Vishanthe Shiancoe in the slot.  The Vikings needed Berrian to win that match-up and he simply did not. Last year with Rice, that’s not even a contest.
• Vontae Davis had Percy Harvin blanketed most of the game.  Harvin had two false starts, inexcusable for a wide receiver, albeit one who is never able to practice.  Best throws for Favre in this game: seam routes vs. Dolphins LBs and safeties.  The most improved unit on the Dolphins is their corners.
• Brandon Marshall went for 46 yards on the first play from scrimmage, setting up the eventual TD.  After that day, he had 3 catches for 25 yards, and the Dolphins had no running game to speak of all day to attribute to fear of Marshall in coverage.
• Ultimately, the Dolphins are an execution-based offense who is going to struggle to create big plays.  They had two big plays in this game: the first play from scrimmage and Ronnie Brown’s 51 yard run.  That run was created by Kevin Williams being too aggressive on the one yard line hunting a safety, allowing Richie Incognito to wall him off and created a huge hole for LB Chad Greenway to fill.  Greenway was de-cleated by the fullback.
• Marshall does not ever line up in the slot for the Dolphins like he did most of last year.  Dolphins a multiple pro-style offense, rarely with more than two WRs.  Davone Bess is the slot receiver when they spread it out.
• Dolphins are going to be a force, if their RBs can execute and hold onto the football.

More picks and discussion from those who write a lot without being right a lot.

Ravens at Bengals Starting a season playing the Ravens and the Patriots would be a difficult draw for any team with high expectations, but for the Bengals, it’s more likely than not that those expectations were misplaced.  Experts like Chris Mortensen and Pat Kirwan picked the Bengals to go to the Super Bowl.  I don’t know what qualifies as a good super bowl pick (I mean, hardly anyone had the Colts and the Saints last year), but I’m thinking that if results in week one can make the pick look looney, it wasn’t a strong pick to begin with.  Ravens win this one.

Bears at Cowboys The Bears struggled to block Kyle VandenBosch and Cliff Avril last week, so this week’s match-up of Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware is going to cause the Bears a lot of problems.  The Cowboys offense hasn’t looked good this year, and this this week won’t be an exception to that rule, but unlike last week, the Cowboys can do just enough on offense to come out on top, narrowly.

Eagles at Lions In the past, this is the kind of game the Eagles always put away early.  But last year, they went to Oakland and lost to the Raiders.  That gives me pause: for the second week in a row, the Lions defense is going to get into the kitchen and harass the opponents’ quarterback without allowing a big day to the running back.  Still, with Shaun Hill starting for the Lions, this Eagles defense is the dominant unit on the field in this game, and should provide enough pressures and hits to win the game, however ugly the process may be.

Cardinals at Falcons This is a fairly fascinating Week 2 match-up.  The Cardinals defense looked great in Week 1 against Sam Bradford and the Rams, and the Falcons offense looked out of sync against a very competitive Steelers team.  If history repeats itself from a week ago, the Cards will win a defensive battle.  But there’s reason to believe that the Falcons can use the week in between to fix holes in their offensive gameplan, restore balance, and score a couple of touchdowns against the Cards.  That should be enough for the Falcons to comfortably defeat Derek Anderson’s Cardinals.

Chiefs at Browns Seneca Wallace is getting the nod for the Browns, and I liked what I saw from this team last week, independent of Jake Delhomme’s mistakes.  The Browns play good defense, and they run the ball really well.  I don’t know if their offensive coaching is good enough to get them over the hump in the AFC this year, but Matt Cassel is bound to struggle with the Browns’ coverages, and while Wallace’s play is one of many ‘X’ factors in this game, I’ve seen enough to take the Browns to win.

Bills at Packers Not the Bills.  Not this week, at least.  Packers.

Steelers at Titans Dennis Dixon got his first quarterback win last Sunday, but the OL for the Steelers did not perform very well.  That wasn’t a big issue against the Falcons front, but in come the Titans who just embarrassed the Raiders’ passing offense last week.  Rashard Mendenhall is going to have his chances to really stick it to the Titans in this one, but that defense is too fast to mount anything against.  Vince Young and Chris Johnson will be on display this week, putting the Steelers defense in a bind.  It’s Young who will carry the day for the Titans.

Buccaneers at Panthers The Panthers’ passing attack is a work in progress, but it’s unclear if the team is actually making any progress.  They don’t have a line that can block for longer-developing plays, and they don’t have receivers (plural) who can do anything with shorter developing plays.  That puts Matt Moore in a bind at quarterback, and Moore was dreadful last week against the Giants.  Obviously, the focus of the gameplan every week is going to be the running game: they can still do that.  But here come the upstart Buccaneers, who will be one of two NFC South teams to reach 2-0 this week.

Dolphins at Vikings This has to be one of the more fascinating games on the slate, as these two teams almost never play.  The Vikings need to find away to avoid dropping to 0-2 against a defense that shut down the Bills rushing attack last year, and can do the same to Adrian Peterson.  The Vikings need to find a way to force young Chad Henne into a mistake or two on the road, and in doing that, they can come out on top.  The Dolphins could deal a devastating blow to the Vikings by playing a great game, and can announce that they belong in the discussion for best team in the AFC East.

Rams at Raiders The Raiders couldn’t throw the ball at all on Tennessee last week.  This week, they’ll have to get Chris Long blocked, who is really blossoming into a top pass rusher in his third NFL season.  But unlike last week, they won’t have to worry about six pass rushing defensive lineman as good as Long.  That should give Jason Campbell more time to throw down the field, and give the Oakland Raiders their first win of the season.

Seahawks at Broncos It’s an old AFC West rivalry!  Well, there will be four of those this season for the Seahawks.  That’s just the way the schedule falls.  They looked great as a team last week, but they are eight years removed from playing in Denver every year, and that altitude climate is tough on all visitors.  Seattle benefited from a weak effort by the 49ers last week, and with their backs against the wall, they will get the Broncos very best.

Texans at Redskins It’s zone stretch-bootleg fun this week, and everyone’s running naked!  Arian Foster is going to go from the penthouse last week to an afterthought this week.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Matt Schaub threw 17 times last game, and just five times in the second half.  This is his team, and this is his game to win.  Foster was nice in week one, and he’s not going away for the season, but the Redskins don’t even have to make stopping him a priority this week.  If Schaub goes off, the Texans will win, but the Redskins know that and they’ll be ready.

Patriots at Jets It would be devastating for the Jets to play at home for the first two weeks of the season and come up winless, but if they can’t beat the Patriots, that’s the reality of the situation.  The fact that both teams, the Patriots and the Jets, have spent all offseason gameplanning to beat the other makes this matchup all the more intriguing.  The Jets have a small advantage because the Patriots have also spent time studying the Dolphins to protect their title, where as the Jets have been all about catching the Patriots.  But the Patriots have the biggest, most important advantage of all: being the better team.

Jaguars at Chargers Last week, I picked the Chiefs over the Chargers saying that the Chargers would fall in their first three games.  That’s all the reasoning you need to understand the selection here: the Jaguars scoring more points than their opponent, getting to 2-0.

Giants at Colts I agree with the angry masses: it’s time to be concerned about the Colts.  Forget the dreaded “Super Bowl Hangover”.  Here’s the issue: the Colts don’t have an offensive line to protect Peyton Manning or give him a running game, and under no circumstances can the Colts stop an opponent’s rushing attack.  The Colts can continue to be a winning machine if they make teams throw to catch them, but the last time their defense couldn’t stop the run (2006), they had a great offensive line and an unstoppable offensive juggernaut.  Something is going to have to give.  In this game, that “something” will be the Giants passing defense.  The Colts get to a very unimpressive 1-1.

Saints at 49ers This Niners team could be in trouble, considering just how poorly they played in a divisional road game against the Seattle Seahawks.  Here come the World Champs to San Francisco, a team that can really pressure a defense that is weak versus the pass by tossing it around on them.  Unless the Niners draw up the best gameplan of their season, their options for holding off the Saints in a close game are limited to baseless hope and unexpected development in Alex Smith as a passer.  They best hope a deity is listening.

A LiveBall Sports Game Tape Review

• The Bears used a lot more of max protect schemes than the Lions did.  Both teams relied on spread concepts to define reads for their quarterbacks, but the Lions, on average, put many more guys in the route.
• Jay Cutler was the best quarterback in this game.  Cutler still struggles to read simple coverages, but his greatest asset in this game was to save his offensive line from itself.  It was a poor performance by the Bears’ pass protectors, especially the backs.
• The go-to receivers in this game were TE Tony Scheffler for the Lions, and WR Devin Aromashadu for the Bears.  I’m thinking that neither offense really got into it’s stride from a playcalling perspective.
• Calvin Johnson isn’t a great receiver.  His overall numbers would have looked a lot better if he had been awarded the touchdown catch at the end of the game, but his entire game is based on being bigger, stronger, faster than smallish corners.  He’s an excellent goal line scorer, but in the rest of the field, he’s a mediocre route runner at best.
• Scheffler is a really versatile target, and a great pickup by the Lions: He may have been the best player relative to his position that Josh McDaniels gave up on.  But Scheffler’s usage suggests issues about both Brandon Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson.  On one hand, perhaps the Lions are right to think that Scheffler is their most dependable target.  On the other… well, those guys were first round picks.  And if the Lions are using Scheffler, they can’t use Pettigrew or Johnson much.
• Scheffler was the only Lions starter who didn’t have at least one drop from Shaun Hill.  Scheffler is the Wes Welker to Johnson’s Randy Moss and Pettigrew’s Ben Watson and Burleson’s, uh, Jabar Gaffney?  Watching this offense is like watching the 2008 Patriots.
• Shaun Hill is playing the Matt Cassel role.  He looked really bad, but mostly because his receivers simply weren’t adjusting to the different passing velocity.  All of Hill’s really good throws came on the last drive of the game.
• I wasn’t blown away by Matt Stafford’s performance, but it’s night and day from last year.  Stafford is very inaccurate when he has to go away from his first read.  But his throw to Nate Burleson on the Lions second TD drive was a beauty.  The Bears were in a cover three that was disguised as a cover two.  Calvin Johnson ran a post on the other side.  Burleson ran a dig.  If the window in the middle of field was “closed” (cover 1, man free, cover three), Stafford would have to react quickly and stick Burleson on the deep dig route.  If it were open (cover 2, quarters), Stafford might be able to stick it in to Johnson.  The Bears disguised their coverage, Stafford read it, and drilled Burleson for 19 yards.  Last year, he forces that pass to Johnson and might get intercepted.
• Stafford didn’t complete a pass longer than 19 yards, and he didn’t complete a pass to either Calvin Johnson or Bryant Johnson in this game.  His second longest completion went to Maurice Morris.
• Shaun Hill’s biggest issue was dropped passes, but he also didn’t help his receivers by staying in the pocket and making multiple reads.  Shaun Hill is a sub-replacement backup in this offense.
• No rushing lanes for Jahvid Best all day long.  Best’s two runs that went for longer than three yards came when Brian Urlacher got lost in the wash, including the TD dash from the shotgun.  The Bears are one of the better tackling teams I’ve seen on tape.  Best is explosive, but he made no one miss.
• The Bears’ biggest problem was turnovers.  Cutler was picked once on third and 20, which costs the Bears field position, but the drive was ending regardless.  The Bears put the ball on the ground four times.  Matt Forte was responsible for two of those, then the Center/QB exchange was responsible for another, and finally, TE Greg Olsen.  Jay Cutler did not fumble in the pocket, which made him one of the most valuable players on the Bears offense, by default.  The Bears had some rushing lanes in the Lions defense, but simply couldn’t hang onto the football.
• Forte’s 89 yard screen scamper for a TD happened because the Lions have an overall lack of speed on their defense.  A good screen call plus a devastating block by Olin Kreutz on a linebacker sprung Forte for a first down.  Chris Houston couldn’t get off his stalk block and Louis Delmas took a shallow angle assuming that at least one Lions player would square up Forte.  He was wrong.  Outside of CB Chris Houston and Delmas, there is no team speed on the Lions defense.  Forte simply ran by everyone.
• The Bears won because they could throw the football against the Lions.  If they keep throwing to Devin Aromashadu 10 times a game, they won’t beat any other defense.  Devin Hester was targeted once.  Hester is a better receiver than Aromashadu, whose one skill is that Jay Cutler likes using him.  I thought Johnny Knox played well, but I thought he was an afterthought in this offense.
• The Lions DL dominated the Bears OL.  The Bears knew going in they had no one who could block Ndamukong Suh, but the match-up they had to win was Chris Williams vs. Kyle Vanden Bosch.  They didn’t win this match-up: Vanden Bosch was a problem all game long.  But the difference on the Bears TD Drive at the end of the game was that Williams finally recovered against Vanden Bosch and kept him off of Cutler (if dangerously close).
• Suh was a monster in this game.  He, at different points in the game, drove Frank Omiyale and Chris Williams deep into the backfield when they needed to, schematically, stay near the line.  The Bears tried pulling C Olin Kreutz early in the game, but the right side of the Bears OL spent so much time going in reverse that Kreutz couldn’t even get past them.  RG Lance Louis and RT Omiyale were dreadful.  Albert Haynesworth is a very good comparison for Suh, but you know what? I think Suh is going to be even better than Haynesworth at his peak.
• Chris Williams needs to play better, but he doesn’t look out of his element at LT.  He was beaten a lot, but not to the point where I think he won’t develop into a decent left tackle.  He’s essentially where Duane Brown (another 2008 first round tackle) is for the Texans.  The best Bears lineman are Olin Kreutz and LG Roberto Garza, who pretty much shut down Corey Williams.
• Forte and Chester Taylor are both weapons in the passing game.  That is the Bears schematic advantage over all other NFL teams.  The Bears OL did best when it was just 5 guys blocking four guys straight up.  They are VERY susceptible to stunts because the backs are usually out in the pass pattern when the OL is being beaten by a twist.
• Without Forte/Taylor, the Bears are a below average passing offense.  They are already a below average rushing offense.

The Bears defense was the story.  The Lions never really challenged their passing defense before the final drive, but the Bears have a best-in-NFL type run defense, and Julius Peppers is going to have a monster year to prove he deserves that contract.  Peppers does not have very much help on the pass rush: Urlacher and Lance Briggs were the second most dangerous pass rushers in this game.  What will be interesting to see: can the Bears D hold up vs. the Cowboys passing attack next week?

The Lions defense could be vastly underrated.  We’ll learn more about them as well after they face the Eagles this week.  The Eagles, if nothing else, won’t fumble four times in a game.

A LiveBall Sports Game Tape Review

• The Raiders defense came out with the mindset of stopping Chris Johnson on the ground, and were pretty much successful at it.  This was not a strong game for CJ28.
• Raiders were a mixed bag in defending the option.  Titans ran option out of misdirection looks.  Raiders were disciplined enough not to leave the pitch man Johnson undefended, but the Titans blocked it well.
• This was not a great game for the Titans OL.  LT Michael Roos gave up a bad sack to Kamerion Wimbley, resulting in a Vince Young fumble recovered by Richard Seymour.
• Titans TE Craig Stevens is a weapon in the formation diverse Titans offense.  He’s one of the three best blocking TEs in all of football and really blew up the Raiders run defense on many plays.  Without him, the Raiders would have dominanted the trenches on the defensive side.
• Jason Campbell didn’t have a good game from a mental perspective, but he sees a lot more of the field (particularly pre-snap) when in the shotgun.  This is not a trend first noticed in this game with Campbell.
• The Raiders like to put their quarterback under center, run play action, and throw down the field.  They were able to create some seams in the defense by doing this, but protection on Campbell was terrible.
• The Titans were not buying play fakes made by Campbell in this game.  I’ve seen it written in local papers after the game that the Titans thought they had a key on Jason Campbell giving away the play pre-snap.  The evidence doesn’t back these claims.  The Titans had great success anticipating play action, but they also lost a bunch of gambles when the Raiders pulled linemen and ran Darren McFadden behind them.
• Johnson had a couple of 8-10 yard runs, but if he doesn’t break the 76 yarder in the second quarter, Johnson averages about 3.0 yards per carry in this game.  Keep that in mind as we go forward for both the Raiders.  Johnson carried 27 times.  About 21 of those were unsuccessful carries.
• The Raiders defense was beaten, but it wasn’t by Johnson.  The Raiders had little defense for Vince Young’s passing.  Excellent route combinations by the Titans took a run-obsessed defense by the Raiders, and made them pay with long plays to Nate Washington.  A great game for Washington.
• SS Tyvon Branch was the goat on two long TDs by the Titans.  First time, he took the bait on run action, and didn’t cover his zone against the pass.  The second  time, he came flying up unblocked and missed Chris Johnson in the hole, springing Johnson for the last 70 yards of his 76 yard run.  Replay that play ten times, and Branch isn’t going to get Johnson even once with that effort.
• Safety play is a major issue for the Raiders.  I thought corners Asomugha (of course) and Routt played well enough to win this game.  Michael Huff doesn’t do any one thing particularly well at free safety.  Branch, at least this Sunday, was a major liability.
• You can see how great of a player Rolando McClain is going to be in this league, but he made a lot of misreads in this game, against the run.  He’s not very instinctive against the pass in general.
• I was impressed by the play of Richard Seymour on the DL, and by Quentin Groves at LB for the Raiders.  No players did more to bottle up Johnson in the game than those two.
• Javon Ringer is an excellent no. 2 back for the Titans.  He’s decisive and explosive and runs with great vision.
• This Titans offense is not a flash in the pan.  Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger has been designing this offense for Young over many years, and the concepts used in it are dissimilar to any professional offense I’ve seen before.  This team could lose Chris Johnson and still be dangerous.  With him, they are unstoppable.
• The game was won by the dominance of the Titans defensive line.  Campbell was too slow with his reads from the pocket, and the Raiders’ max protect gameplan played into the Titans hands, but those are minor deficiencies compared to the whipping of all five Raiders lineman by the Titans defensive front.  Jason Jones and Jacob Ford are monsters and Tony Brown isn’t even healthy yet.  Derrick Morgan badly beat Cooper Carlisle for a first quarter sack.

The Titans are a very, very good football team, perhaps the best in the AFC (if not the NFL).  The Raiders may or may not be as bad as they were on this day.  They’ll need a passing offense to be successful, so we’ll re-visit them after they play the Rams, who aren’t capable of doing to them what the Titans did.