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Tennessee Titans (projected finish: 10-6)

Team synopsis: The schedule is not easy.  In fact, it’s downright violent.  But the Titans are too talented, and too good, to suffer back to back non-winning seasons.  They’ve won 31 games in the last three years.  There’s a legitimate worry about a defense that finished ranked 27th last season, as that is the unit that really hurt the Titans last year.  The other concern is with quarterback Vince Young, but if both merely play to the level of their teammates, they will help the Titans win.

Best Players

• RB Chris Johnson (drafted — East Carolina/2008 1st round pick)
• LT Michael Roos (drafted — Eastern Washington/2005 2nd round pick)
• RT David Stewart (drafted — Mississippi State/2005 4th round pick)
• DT Tony Brown (signed — Carolina/2006 waivers)
• LB David Thornton (signed — Indianapolis/2006 free agent)
• CB Cortland Finnegan (drafted — Samford/2006 7th round pick)

Best Prospects

• RB Javon Ringer (drafted — Michigan State/2009 5th round pick)
• WR Kenny Britt (drafted — Rutgers/2009 1st round pick)
• TE Jared Cook (drafted — South Carolina/2009 3rd round pick)
• LG Leroy Harris (drafted — N.C. State/2007 4th round pick)
• DT Jason Jones (drafted — Eastern Michigan/2008 2nd round pick)
• DT Sen’Derrick Marks (drafted — Auburn/2009 2nd round pick)
• DE Derrick Morgan (drafted — Georgia Tech/2010 1st round pick)
• LB Gerald McRath (drafted — Southern Miss/2009 4th round pick)
• LB Rennie Currie (drafted — Georgia/2010 3rd round pick)
• CB Ryan Mouton (drafted — Hawaii/2009 3rd round pick)

If there one event that caused the Titans to turn around after a 0-6 start — one that isn’t related to Vince Young, Kerry Collins, or Chris Johnson — it’s a collective effort by their 2009 draft class.  No one player broke out, but Mouton had meaningful punt returns and two starts, Ringer made an impact in the kick return game and averaged 6 YPC on 8 attempts, Gerald McRath started five games and made an impact, and Kenny Britt emerged as Vince Young’s favorite receiver.  Young players made plays for the Titans, and one year later, they look to have one of the better draft classes from 2009.

Keeping the return to respectability in perspective, though, is critical.  It’s true that they were a horrible team in the first six games, and that they weren’t that same team when they got back from the bye week.  But saying that they were a true 8-2 team in the second half overstates a small sample.  According to game-by-game DVOA, the 8-2 Titans had a remarkably similar 3 game stretch (Weeks 11-13) to the 0-6 Titans (Weeks 1-3).  They, of course, began the season 0-3 against Pittsburgh, Houston, and the Jets.  But in that three game stretch in late November, they beat Houston and Arizona before losing to Indianapolis.  The Titans also had a two game stretch to end the season similar to their Week 4 and 5 stretch, going 1-1 against San Diego and Seattle, but 0-2 against Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

The Titans were improved in the second half of the year — much improved — but they weren’t great.  They were able to turn those close losses into close wins, and they blew out the Rams, and handled the 49ers comfortably, and beat up on the division rival Jags after the bye.  And because their 59-0 forfeit to the Patriots in the snow came at 0-5 and before the bye, the contrast seems more stark than it really is.  The biggest difference, of course, was who they played and when they played them.

Chris Johnson really picked his game up after the break.  He was on the radar already thanks to some scattered performances that changed fantasy results even as the Titans lost games.  But after the bye, the Titans threw Chris Johnson’s receiving skills into their gameplan with Young at the controls, and suddenly, a nondescript pro-bowl year turned into NFL history.  Johnson would break the NFL yards from scrimmage record, no doubt assisted by the fact that the Titans had little to play for in Week 17 despite winning seven of their last nine.

Young was perhaps the biggest factor, taking over for a very ineffective Collins.  Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger threw the book at his opponents.  A lot of Chris Johnson’s longest runs came on old college option plays: Young’s versatility could get him out on the corner, and even though Young didn’t exactly challenge defenses with his rushing skills, it was a significant strategic advantage to toss Johnson the ball with only the secondary to beat after beating the lineman and linebackers with misdirection action.  Johnson may have done what no other back in NFL history accomplished, but he didn’t do it without help from his offense.

Young also threw the ball quite well.  Though he completed only 58.7% of his passes, consider that NFL writers awarded him the Rookie of the Year award with a 51.5% clip in the same category for winning the same number of games with three more losses.  He didn’t exactly go unrewarded, with the pro bowl nomination and all, but Young got the ball out of his hand quickly (3.4% sack rate), set career bests in yards per attempt, TD rate and INT rate, and if anything, his 82.8 QB rating actually understates the job he did.

The biggest change on the Titans offense will be the promotion of Leroy Harris from the bench to left guard, with Eugene Amano moving over and filling a hole created by Kevin Mawae’s expiring contract.  The overall impact of these moves would appear to be an upgrade.  The offensive line remains a team strength, and the best in the division.

A lot of Vince Young’s ability to sustain his productivity rides on the shoulders of Kenny Britt.  Britt had 85 career receiving yards before reaching the drinking age.  He’ll be 22 before the Week 2 game, and the Titans just don’t have a lot of places that they can throw the ball.  Their 3rd round pick, Damian Williams, is an advanced target capable of picking up an offense similar to the one he ran in college quickly, but may not have great upside, and certainly not the upside of a guy like Britt.  Nate Washington can be a number two receiver in this offense, but can’t save Justin Gage from his general lack of speed and quickness in and out of his routes.

If Derrick Morgan is half the player the Titans think he can be, the Titans have a better defensive line than they did when Albert Haynesworth played for them.  Tony Brown was already a very good defensive tackle when he played with Haynesworth, and now has developed into the lead man on the Tennessee DL.  Jason Jones is probably better than Brown was when Haynesworth played there.  And on the left side, the William Hayes/Jacob Ford platoon is better than when Jevon Kearse played there.

The problem becomes replacing Kyle Vanden Bosch in his prime.  Thing is, Vanden Bosch wasn’t at his prime pass rushing level for his final two years in Tennessee.  Morgan’s first task is to fill the shoes of a declining defensive end.  After that, he needs to develop into the elite pass rusher that Vanden Bosch used to be.  Then, once again, Tennessee has the pieces of an elite defense.

David Thornton is aging, but he’s justified the cost of picking him up in the free agent market four years ago, and probably can have a rebound year at age 32.  He’s going to hold his spot warm for McRath through this year, with Stephen Tulloch playing the middle and Will Witherspoon replacing Keith Bulluck on the other side.

The Titans need to find solutions in their secondary.  Cortland Finnegan is a very good cover corner in this league, but lacks the elite skills to take an entire side of the field away.  Tye Hill, Mouton, and second year Jason McCourty all are in the mix for the fiercest position battle on the Titans, second corner.  Michael Griffin and Chris Hope return as the safeties.  Hope is solid, dependable, and can get targeted in the passing game by better passing combinations.  Griffin has shown great skills and abilities in the past, but comes off a dreadful season, and needs to pull his career off of the Reggie Nelson career path.  6th round rookie Myron Rolle can step in for Hope if necessary, but Griffin has just Vincent Fuller behind him — he’s sink or swim.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Chris Simms could play well enough to win Kerry Collins’ spot.  That’s unlikely, if you’ve seen Chris Simms play recently.  Rusty Smith is a developmental draft pick who probably lacks NFL starter upside, but could max out at backup.

The running back situation seems to be taking hold, where Javon Ringer is your number two guy, and Alvin Pearman is the number three who catches passes and returns punts.  Samkon Gado is in with the Titans for camp, but his career is probably reaching it’s end.  Likely the same for LeGarrette Blount, who never had much of a career to begin with.

Even with Britt’s emergence, there are more questions among the receivers than a year ago.  That Nate Washington signing hasn’t worked out thus far, and Gage’s strange, multi-year run of competence abruptly ended this season.  That inconsistency caused Lavelle Hawkins, a 4th round pick in 2008, to catch seven passes in fourteen targets.  Hawkins would only make this year’s team out of necessity, as the top three receivers figure to be Britt, Washington, and Damian Williams.  Gage probably makes team due to a veteran clause.  Montana’s Marc Mariani could challenge Gage for his roster spot.  It would be nice if one of the other roster fillers stepped up.

Craig Stevens, perhaps the best blocking TE in the NFL, is becoming a bigger member of the offensive gameplan, which means that Bo Scaife has to hold off Jared Cook to justify his roster spot.  In reality, the two will probably split time.  Scaife does not appear to be a part of the teams future.

Mike Otto and Troy Kropog are the first lineman off the bench, and Michael Toudouze doesn’t have any great competition for his roster spot.  The Titans prefer their reserve lineman to learn multiple positions.  Undrafted rookie Kevin Matthews is going to be any and every opportunity to make the team.  He is royalty after all.

The additions of both Raheem Brock and Jason Babin would push the Titans to keep nine defensive lineman at least, which is the most likely scenario.  Both are reserves on this team.  Rennie Curran, a third round LB out of UGA, is a backup this year, and could start next year if Tulloch’s contract isn’t renewed.  Collin Allred and Stanford Keglar both have starts in the preseason, but the Titans may or may not be able to afford to keep both.

The team drafted CB Alterran Verner in the 4th round from UCLA.  He’s nominally the fifth corner, but if he plays his way into the rotation in the preseason, there’s little reason to hold onto Tye Hill if he doesn’t win the starting job.

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Atlanta Falcons (projected finish: 10-6)

Team synopsis: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan seems ready to take the jump to the leagues elite, but a violent schedule involving the defenses of the AFC North and his own NFC South could delay his arrival by a year.  What probably isn’t about to be delayed is the Falcons ascension back to the top of their division.  With Michael Turner right on the back end of his prime (7th NFL season), Tony Gonzalez smashing all age curves for a tight end, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins bouncing back from down years, and a defense that could make serious noise this year, the Falcons aren’t just a trendy team.  This city finally has the real thing.

Best Players

• QB Matt Ryan (drafted — Boston College/2008 1st round pick)
• RB Michael Turner (signed — San Diego/2008 free agent)
• WR Roddy White (drafted — UAB/2005 1st round pick)
• TE Tony Gonzalez (trade — Kansas City/2010 2nd round pick)
• RG Harvey Dahl (signed — San Francisco/2007 waivers)
• RT Tyson Clabo (signed — Wake Forest/2006 undrafted free agent)
• DT Jonathan Babineaux (suspended one game) (drafted — Iowa/2005 2nd round pick)
• DE John Abraham (trade — NY Jets/2006 1st round pick)
• LB Curtis Lofton (drafted — Oklahoma/2008 2nd round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Harry Douglas (drafted — Louisville/2008 3rd round pick)
• LT Sam Baker (drafted — USC/2008 1st round pick)
• LG Mike Johnson (drafted — Alabama/2010 3rd round pick)
• DE Kroy Biermann (drafted — Montana/2008 5th round pick)
• DE Lawrence Sidbury (drafted — Richmond/2009 4th round pick)
• LB Sean Weatherspoon (drafted — Missouri/2010 1st round pick)
• SS William Moore (drafted — Missouri/2009 2nd round pick)

When we looked at the division rival Saints, I noted how their defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, has a preference to load his secondary will his most physically talented players.  Clearly, the Falcons have an alternative philosophy.  This management group, lead by GM Thomas Dimitroff and Head Coach Mike Smith, inherited John Abraham as the starter at right defensive end.  They have turned over the other six positions, and had done so by mid-way through their second year.

They’ve also restocked the roster with plenty of talent.  Jonathan Babineaux was a part time player when Mike Smith came in.  Since then, Babineaux has started every game for the Falcons, and led all defensive tackles with 6.0 sacks last year.  He was deserving of a pro-bowl nod, one that never came.  He will be joined by 2009 first rounder Peria Jerry, who missed last year with a knee injury.  The left end that was inherited by Smith was 2007 first rounder Jamaal Anderson.  He’s still with the team, but clearly was an overdraft at 8th overall by former personnel guy Rich McKay.  He’s been effectively replaced now by Kroy Biermann in passing downs, and could get beaten out by Lawrence Sidbury for his job this year.

Curtis Lofton was the first defensive player selected by the Falcons in 2008, a pick that was available to them because they traded DeAngelo Hall to Oakland that offseason.  Lofton is a rangy tackle-machine who makes mistakes in coverage.  Their first round pick this year, Sean Weatherspoon, should be much better against the pass.  For future variations of the 4-3, defenses need great coverage backers like Weatherspoon.  He’s my early pick for defensive rookie of the year, as his impact will be felt immediately.

The secondary hasn’t been as strong since trading D-Hall to the Raiders, but two “acquisitions” could change that this season.  The first, Dunta Robinson, who was formerly the franchise corner on the Texans.  He should be back from a knee injury suffered in 2008 this year.  The Texans didn’t want to buy that risk, so the Falcons are the team taking the plunge.  The second is safety William Moore, who missed last year as a rookie.  He’s an in-the-box player, in the mold of a more disciplined LaRon Landry.

Brian Williams, a veteran coming off an ACL injury (sort of a trend with the Falcons roster), is slated to start at the other corner, but he’s facing a strong push from Christopher Owens, Brent Grimes, and Chevis Jackson, all of whom want that starting spot.  Thomas DeCoud is at free safety, where Erik Coleman will provide depth for the first time in his career since becoming a starter as a rookie with the Jets.

That’s the Falcons defense in a nutshell.  It’s powerful up front, injured but youthful in the secondary, and there’s speed at every level.  It’s a scheme predicated on it’s speed, so you can imagine just how good these guys will be when things click for them.

The offense is where all the talent is.  Matt Ryan is your quick-triggered quarterback, and his best friend is his running game.  Michael Turner has vision as good as any active runner in football.  He plays in a rushing scheme tailor made to his skill set, as offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey runs man blocking in a way few do: he pulls and traps, and involves everyone.  The Falcons really aren’t a two TE team, but I don’t know if any team is more dangerous out of single wideout sets.  I would argue that, no, a 2 RB, 2 TE Falcons team is a threat to hit long, short, or to run to any gap.  When they execute, they are indefensible from that formation.

One reason that they were so good from those formations is because they had to be.  The Falcons got the token effort from Brian Finneran, who is still around (in case you were wondering), but with Harry Douglas missing the year, they had only two healthy, dependable receivers.  But, unfortunately, both Roddy White and Michael Jenkins were worse than you would have expected going into the season.  Douglas is back to give Matt Ryan a tertiary target on most routes, but White and Jenkins will be relied on to produce.  Both have great histories of productivity, so there is little reason to worry about either this season.  As inevitably as bounceback seasons are for those two, Tony Gonzalez is the greatest receiving TE the game has ever seen.  Even when age does get him, NFL defensive coordinators will be the last to notice.

The Falcons also have great depth at running back for the first time since TJ Duckett was a productive player (so, just 2004).  Jason Snelling, who made the team as a fullback, appears to have passed Jerious Norwood on the depth chart.  Snelling fits the power rushing scheme better than Norwood, who is a poor fit (but an excellent runner otherwise).  The Falcons would be wise to add packages to utilize Norwood’s speed and quickness.

They’ll run behind an offensive line that really, was built on the blocks of unwanted players Harvey Dahl, a right guard picked up in 2007, and Tyson Clabo, the team’s RT added in 2008.  Both were added to the roster by McKay, not Dimitroff, but Mike Smith and Mularkey were the guys who put each in the starting lineup and let them play.  The results speak for themselves.  The team is still a little weak at C and LG , where Todd McClure and Justin Blalock are run blocking players with little pass blocking acumen.  The best pass blocker on the team is Sam Baker, a 3rd year player out of USC who has had some injury troubles.

The only think that can de-rail the Falcons from becoming the NFC South’s first dynasty is if they continue to add players with long and questionable bills of health.  Matt Ryan is too refined, too smart, and too accurate, to allow otherwise.  He will be one of the NFCs more successful playoff QBs in the near-term future.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Eric Weems has been doing everything special teams for Mike Smith’s Falcons since he’s been there.  He’ll be back again, and probably as the fifth receiver in the offense.  Still, Atlanta is going to find a place for Kerry Meier, and that could take Weems and actually decrease his role a little bit.  And yeah, the Falcons are probably going to divorce themselves from their most tenured player, Brian Finneran, either this week or next.

The Falcons are likely turning over both of their backup guards, adding Joe Hawley and Mike Johnson.  Quinn Ojinaka can play offensive tackle, but in the absence of the Falcons keeping ten linemen, Will Svitek and Garrett Reynolds will battle for the backup tackle job.

The Falcons added Corey Peters as interior depth for Peria Jerry.  Then Vance Walker and Thomas Johnson will battle to start in the first week of the season, when Babineaux must sit in Pittsburgh.  Chauncey Davis will remain John Abraham’s backup on the weakside.  Mike Peterson will battle Stephen Nicholas for the SLB role.  Coy Wire is good depth on the weak side.  I think Spencer Adkins will make the team as well.

Dominique Franks is a long-term developmental pick at corner, and probably is the fifth corner this year.  Matt Giordano seems to play the same role on a different team every year.  He’ll make the Falcons, and probably play some defense in the box.  Shann Schillinger, a safety from Montana, is a bit of a longshot to make the team, but should contribute on special teams in the preseason, and if he tackles well, I like his chances to make the team.