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Packers.

Chicago Bears (projected finish: 8-8)

Team synopsis: It’s different in Chicago, these days.  The attempt to bring Jay Cutler in to an established offense and have him save their passing game was poorly scripted from the beginning.  Cutler took a campfire of burning plays and threw kerosene on them.  He also set a career high in TD passes, so it wasn’t all bad.  Enter Mike Martz to help Cutler bring a new era of Bears football, one where a passing game isn’t just something that is inconveniencing the defense.  Cutler has young, talented receivers to help him, and a young offensive line that will require his help.  It’s hard to worry about an offense in such good hands, especially when it’s flaws are so understood (Cutler will throw a fair share of INTs, Martz will not care).

Best Players

• QB Jay Cutler (trade — Denver/2009 & 2010 1st round, 2009 3rd round picks, QB Kyle Orton)
• C Olin Kreutz (drafted — Washington/1998 3rd round pick)
• DE Julius Peppers (signed — Carolina/2010 free agent)
• LB Lance Briggs (drafted — Arizona/2003 3rd round pick)
• LB Brian Urlacher (drafted — New Mexico/2000 1st round pick)
• CB Charles Tillman (drafted — UL-Lafayette/2003 2nd round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Johnny Knox (drafted – Abilene Christian/2009 6th round pick)
• WR Earl Bennett (drafted — Vanderbilt/2008 3rd round pick)
• LT Chris Williams (drafted — Vanderbilt/2008 1st round pick)
• RG Lance Louis (drafted — San Diego State/2009 7th round pick)
• DE Corey Wooton (drafted — Northwestern/2010 4th round pick)
• CB Zack Bowman (drafted — Nebraska/2008 5th round pick)
• S Al Alfalava (drafted — Oregon State/2009 6th round pick)

The first true Martz project will be to finish the development of Devin Hester into a NFL receiver.  The Bears drafted Hester without any real plan for him, then tried him on returns and received two of the greatest return seasons in NFL history.  He started at corner, converted to receiver in his second year, and though he was inserted into the starting lineup in 2008, he pretty much could run just two routes at the time.  The strides Hester made between 2008 and 2009 in Ron Turner’s offense can not be understated: he was not the most explosive Bears receiver last year, but he was the best.

Turner’s system is about as stripped down as NFL offense gets before it becomes a college offense, which is where Turner had his best days as a coach: about ten years ago at the University of Illinois.  Martz’ offense is a little bit more complicated, terminology-wise, and has a lot more depth.  Martz thinks Hester can be his number one target this year, but it’s going to require a similar jump in the understanding of an NFL offense as he made last year.

Johnnie Knox is probably a more realistic target to develop into the Bears’ top overall receiver.  Few players in the entire league are smoother in and out of routes as Knox is.  His numbers last year are weighed down by a limited understanding of his quarterback, as Knox got open, and Cutler threw, but they rarely connected enough.  Earl Bennett isn’t a great scheme fit, but is by far the most dependable receiver for Cutler.  As the Bears passing game gains dimension, Bennett will begin to play a larger role.  This means that Devin Aromashadu could be the odd man out, but even he, as a fourth receiver, could make a difference on third downs and in the red zone.

Just as interesting is the game that will be played with the tight ends.  The Bears have four worth keeping.  Brandon Manumaleuna is the starter, because the scheme calls for a blocking tight end in the singleback formations that Martz prefers.  The three other receivers are variable, meaning that Greg Olsen can still be a starter in this offense, if he’s more dynamic out of the slot than Bennett is early in the season.  Two TE sets will likely mean Desmond Clark and Manumaleuna in the game at the same time, giving the Bears a powerful outside running front, and an excellent formation to take deep shots out of.  The team also has Kellen Davis, who could be an odd man out, but could also force the Bears to keep four TEs.  Davis is the only one of the four who plays special teams.  Eddie Williams, a 2009 draft choice of the Redskins, is the team’s lone fullback.  He could be cut in order to make room for Davis.

Clearly, this Bears offense has more dimension than it has ever had in the team’s history (Refrigerator Perry at FB doesn’t count as “dimension”), and Martz is exactly the guy you want to give those options to.  Aside from Brandon Manumaleuna, Martz also brought in Chester Taylor from Minnesota.  Taylor has the Matt Forte skill set, which if nothing else, puts pressure on Matt Forte to perform.  The Bears running game remains a question mark.  The offensive line struggles to open holes for Forte, who struggles to get through them.  You know the Mike Martz solution to the problem: stop running.  The Bears would benefit from a RB no. 3 who excels at rushing the football above all.  Well, that and special teams.

Ultimately, Cutler is now responsible for what happens with this offense.  He has weapons, and the protection will be better.  The Bears invested in him not just once (with draft choices), but twice ($20 million extension), so they really need to see some return on that investment — otherwise the people who gave Cutler so much of their effort will pay the price for it.  Tools aren’t his issue, but Cutler has not been one to show he can win shootouts or defensive struggles.

It wouldn’t kill a team to give Jay Cutler a defense.  The Bears have more big names on this defense than they’ve had on any prior defense.  Tommie Harris. Julius Peppers. Brian Urlacher. Lance Briggs.  To show for it, they have a defense that has declined every year since a super bowl season in 2006.  Peppers has the ability to take over games, as does Urlacher, but on average, Peppers/Mark Anderson isn’t a significant upgrade over the Wale Ogunleye/Alex Brown duo the Bears already had.  Peppers can rush the passer well, but he can’t be the team’s pass rush all by himself.  Maybe Harris can help.  He hasn’t been the same player since 2006.  The Bears aren’t much of a pressure defense, though Brian Urlacher’s complete skill set allows him to go after quarterbacks with all-important A-gap pressure.  Still, LE could be a major weakness on this defense.

As weak as that position on the line could be, all three linebacker positions will be a strength.  Nick Roach is a very underrated player, and Pisa Tinoisamoa is great depth at both OLB positions (plays better as strong side).  If Urlacher stays healthy for a whole year, the Bears will start three quality linebackers every week, in more or less any other injury scenario.

Zack Bowman, Charles Tillman, and Al Alfalava are three of four pieces of a strong secondary.  Free safety could be an issue all year long.  Major Wright and Danieal Manning are battling for the job in camp.  Chris Harris, back after two seasons in Carolina, should serve as the dime back and a package substitute for Alfalava.  That’s four safeties right there who are likely to make the team, usually a roster’s full.  This team also returns Craig Steltz and Josh Bullocks.  An injury to Steltz in the first preseason game could be an unfortunate way to solve a problem many teams would love to have, as the team likes Bullocks’ contributions on special teams.

Coverage is the biggest issue among corners in the secondary.  Charles Tillman and Zack Bowman are the best cover corners in the group.  Both can be had deep.  Tim Jennings offers some quickness in the slot, but he’s not a great cover guy.  Corey Graham has improved drastically since 2008, and still isn’t even average.  A pair of Moore’s; second year D.J. and rookie Joshua, are in the mix here as fifth corners.  Jennings and Graham are both on the bubble.

The cover-two scheme that emphasizes the safeties in coverage is the Bears’ greatest defense against a weak group of corners.  If a couple of rangy safeties emerge to confound quarterbacks, Peppers could have one heck of a year rushing the passer.  If not, the Bears investment in him could be wasted on a defense that is poor, overall.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

First hand reports out of Bears camp suggest that 6th round QB Dan Lefevour is really struggling.  Caleb Hanie, the Bears backup last season, is injured and is an IR candidate.  With Lefevour unable to prove competitive for the backup role, the Bears have extended offers to veteran QBs Todd Collins (last team: Redskins), and Damon Huard (last team: 49ers).

About that third RB situation: the team loves Garrett Wolfe on special teams.  Kahlil Bell is probably a better runner than Wolfe.  Former Michigan runner Brandon Minor could prove an interesting wild card, with a new offensive coach having little loyalty to last years’ runners.

For the back end of the roster of receivers: Rashied Davis is the proven special teamer.  Juaquin Iglesias is a 3rd round pick from a year ago who just looks like a classic overdraft.  That overdraft could keep him on the roster another year, but likely not at the expense of Davis, a favorite of special teams coach Dave Toub.

The Bears have been working former Atlanta & Cleveland OT Kevin Shaffer on the interior for the first time in his career.  Last years starting LG, Frank Omiyale, is with the first team offense at RT.  Then, longtime RG Roberto Garza is going to switch sides and play the left guard.  He will be replaced by 2009 7th round pick Lance Louis.  Omiyale’s hold on the RT position is tenuous, mostly due to talent deficiency.  The second team RT is James Marten, former Cowboy backup.  The best backup the Bears have is Josh Beekman, who has been working exclusively as the no. 2 Center in training camp.  In practicality, he’s likely the backup LG as well, although Garza has little injury history, and the team is high on Johan Asiata, and other players you’ve never heard of.  This year’s 7th round pick, J’Marcus Webb (West Texas A&M), will play behind LT Chris Williams if he makes it.  If not, I’d imagine that Kevin Shaffer has those duties.

Jarron Gilbert, who can jump out of pools, you know, will work exclusively at the 3-technique behind Tommie Harris.  Anthony Adams will start at the 1-technique, and Marcus Harrison will back him up.  The quality depth at DT allows them to keep five or more ends.  With Corey Wooton behind Julius Peppers right now, either Henry Melton or Maurice Evans could make the Bears at DE.

Hunter Hillenmeyer’s best chance to remain a Bear involves securing himself as the backup MLB behind Urlacher.  Because the Bears may only hold six LBs, Hillenmeyer could be a late release, with Brian Iwuh, Tim Shaw, and Kelvin Smith all in the mix for two spots, with Hillenmeyer.

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Green Bay Packers (projected finish: 7-9)

Team synopsis: A very talented — but just as young — Packer team is still quite reliant on a few players such as QB Aaron Rodgers, CB Charles Woodson, LB Clay Matthews, and WR Greg Jennings.  But it may be just as reliant on an offensive line this year that struggles to protect Rodgers, and on Rodgers himself to make better use of the pocket on plays where it’s actually there.  Rodgers/McCarthy is as good of a bet as any to be the next formidable QB/QB guru duo in NFL annals, but I do think there will be a 2010 sized bump in the road before they get there.

Best Players

• QB Aaron Rodgers (drafted — Cal/2005 1st round pick)
• WR Greg Jennings (drafted — Western Michigan/2006 2nd round pick)
• WR Donald Driver (drafted — Alcorn State/1999 7th round pick)
• TE Jermichael Finley (drafted — Texas/2008 3rd round pick)
• DE Ryan Pickett (signed — St. Louis/2006 free agent)
• LB Clay Matthews (drafted — USC/2009 1st round pick)
• LB Nick Barnett (drafted — Oregon State/2003 1st round pick)
• CB Charles Woodson (signed — Oakland/2006 free agent)
• FS Nick Collins (drafted — Bethune-Cookman/2005 2nd round pick)

Best Prospects

• WR Jordy Nelson (drafted — Kansas State/2008 2nd round pick)
• OT Brian Bulaga (drafted — Iowa/2010 1st round pick)
• RG Josh Sitton (drafted — UCF/2008 4th round pick)
• NT B.J. Raji (drafted — Boston College/2009 1st round pick)
• LB Brad Jones (drafted — Colorado/2009 7th round pick)

More on Rodgers: even the Packers didn’t feel like he was capable of numbers like this prior to the 2008 season.  They felt like they needed to find out; you might not remember a time where Brett Favre’s inability to successfully retire actually hurt his team, but the Packers couldn’t afford to get deeper into his contract and not find out if he could play.  They drafted Brian Brohm out of Louisville, thinking that, in the strong QB draft class of 2008, a second rounder spent on Brohm was as valuable as the last 1st they spent on Rodgers three years before.

In his first season as a starter, he exceeded expectations.  He finished average, or above average, in every passing statistic.  Last year, the team released Brohm, and watched Rodgers improve in every statistical category, except sack rate, which declined severely (6.0% to 8.5%, as the overall sack environment went down).  As always, the real Rodgers is probably in between, and as long as he’s executing this well on third down, he will remain one of the best passers in the NFC.

This year, though, watch out.  Rodgers’ line is, put nicely, in transition.  Chad Clifton signed a 3-year, $20 million contract in the offseason, out of high demand at his position.  The team drafted Brian Bulaga, who figures to play somewhere right away, possibly at RT for Mark Tauscher, who is back on a one year deal.  Tauscher is younger than Clifton, but his career has been less prolific.  The good news is that the Packers have three starting caliber tackles, which should help avoid the disaster that was the first half of last season.  The bad news is that it’s two aging guys and a rookie.  LG Darryn Colledge is still a major weakness.  C Scott Wells is just a guy, even if he’s been at his position for a long time.  RG Josh Sitton, at least, is looking to lock down the role of franchise RG, after starting 16 games last year.

Aaron Rodgers is one of a few quarterbacks (Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, David Garrard, Jason Campbell) who are better under pressure than merely under the threat of pressure.  The other thing all these quarterbacks share in common: they get hit.  A lot.  Rodgers figures to be hit a lot this year as well, which means that his league-leading 1.3% INT rate is not sustainable.  In fact, that rate could drift into the 3% range for the first time in Rodgers career.  That, along with a declining completion percentage and unsustainable yards per attempt figures could mean a decline season across the board for Rodgers.

He can circumvent these effects by continuing to be excellent on third downs, but his limited success on that down against division rivals Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota compared to all other opponents, suggests that the more film that is there on his tendencies, the more limited Rodgers will be in critical third and longs.

The Packers might also struggle to get contribution from their running game.  Ryan Grant got dinged up in the first quarter of preseason action this year.  He should be okay for the first game, but it’s still a negative indicator that the no. 1 tailback on an offense-heavy team gets drilled that early in a preseason game.  Backup Brandon Jackson was ineffective in that role last year, and has only one out of three seasons averaging better than 3.7 YPC on the ground.  James Starks, the team’s 6th round pick out of Buffalo has potential.  But this year, it’s Grant and whatever injuries he may incur running the football.

The best unit on offense is the receivers.  Greg Jennings is one of the ten best receivers in the game.  Donald Driver was one of the 15 best last year, and is 35.  A list of the comparable receivers to his career suggests that the end is very near, but expecting one more 800+ yard season isn’t unreasonable.  Even if Driver can’t continue his pace, third year man Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) is probably ready for primetime after averaging 14.5 yards per catch last season.  And if Driver gets hurt this year, James Jones, a fourth year player, is capable of being a third receiver.  Tight end Jermichael Finley is a match-up nightmare.  When talking about the players who make Rodgers a fantastic red zone QB, Finley doesn’t get enough credit.  Corner’s can’t cover him.  Safeties can’t cover him.  Most linebackers have the size to cover him, but demonstrate poor cover skills on an island.  Finley has even more room to grow, and a lot of personnel types are surprised that the raw specimen made an impact as quickly as he did.

Defensively, the Packers are going to have to pick up some slack if the passing offense and rushing offenses slide a little bit.  They have the talent at all three levels to do so.  On the defensive line, an indefinite suspension to Johnny Jolly is a big deal, thinning out the line just a bit.  Nose tackle BJ Raji is an absolute stud in the making on the interior, he will provide matchup issues for most center/guard combos.  His presence allows Ryan Pickett to slide outside in the Packers’ 3-4.  Those two, combined with LB Nick Barnett are the center of a great run-stuffing unit.  Rookie Mike Neal will be asked to step up (and possibly in for) Jolly on the left side.  None of those guys are going to pressure the QB, so it’s up to second year players Brad Jones and Clay Matthews to put pressure on the quarterback.

There are reasons to be skeptical that that pressure can get there.  Matthews’ excellent rookie year was partially to credit to the half-season presence of Aaron Kampman.  Kampman is gone, and Jones will be forced into a full time role.  He could excel with the added snaps, or exposed by the same sample.  AJ Hawk has continued to disappoint on the inside next to Barnett.  Hawk’s emergence could really make a difference for a unit that needs the boost, but right now, he provides mediocrity at a non-premium position.

The secondary might be the weakest unit on the roster.  Al Harris continues to rehab from a serious, career-threatening, foot injury.  Defensive player of the year Charles Woodson returns as the other corner, while Tramon Williams will fill in for Al Harris rehabs.  Don’t forget about 2008 2nd rounder Pat Lee (Auburn), who missed the entire 2009 season, but clearly has an opportunity as de-facto nickelback with Harris out.  SS Atari Bigby will get pushed (finally) by third round pick, SS Morgan Burnett (Ga. Tech).  There are no questions about Nick Collins at FS, one of the best in the league in his prime.

Fighting for a spot on the roster

Graham Harrell is the new Brian Brohm, taking to the Packers roster after a stellar college career.

The Packers usually only keep 3 RBs (figuring that waiver pickups can play in their system on short notice), so Kregg Lumpkin could be pushed by Starks.  Conversely, the WCO offense allows them to hold multiple fullbacks, and so Quinn Johnson is going to push either John Kuhn or Korey Hall to make the roster.

The 5th receiver spot, formerly held by Ruvell Martin, can now go to someone else.  Perhaps, anyone else.  Brett Swain is the front runner.  Chastin West, Patrick Williams, Shawn Gore, Jason Chery, and Charles Dillon are the challengers.  Spencer Havner, a converted LB, emerged last year as the clear cut no. 2 TE, which puts Donald Lee in all sorts of roster trouble.  Tom Crabtree and draft choice Andrew Quarless will battle for his spot.

Marshall Newhouse, the teams 5th round pick out of TCU, and Jason Spitz (who backs up at center and guard) are the two primary backups on the interior.  With the three starting caliber tackles, the Packers don’t necessarily have to keep more than eight lineman.  But they probably will, because giving up on Breno Giacomini, T.J. Lang, and Allen Barbre at the same time likely isn’t in the cards.  Lang, in particular, might have a future at LG (this year), or RT (next year), so he’s probably safe.

DE Justin Harrell, unable to participate in much of the offseason work, is more likely than not to be released.  Cullen Jenkins and rookie second rounder Mike Neal will split time at LDE.  That leaves two spots for Ronald Talley, Jairus Wynn, and rookie C.J. Wilson.

Brandon Chillar, Desmond Bishop, and Brady Poppinga might make up the most impressive group of backup ILBs in football, and it’s a little surprising that none have unseated Hawk yet.  But the Packers are very much void of pass rushers, could add a veteran, and anyone on the roster who flashes raw skills in the preseason could make the final roster, because there are two (or at least one) open spot(s) at LB that have no frontrunner.

One spot at safety will be determined between special teamers Charlie Peprah and Will Blackmon.  I’m guessing Peprah is the front-runner.  If Lee doesn’t seize the moment in the offseason, he could be released so the team can keep Jarrett Bush as a special teamer, and Brandon Underwood as a ‘teamer/fifth corner.  Right now, Underwood would be the last defensive cut.