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Process points are returning for the 2010 draft grades!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with process points, they function as a way to grade a draft instantly and objectively without worrying about what players will eventually become or whether my pre-draft grades were accurate.  Process points give points for the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and reward teams for playing the market well through trades and draft picks.  The draft is an event where each team can only better themselves, and while each team has to be able to actually better themselves just to keep up with other teams, points are not subtracted away from teams for making reaches.

The worst thing you can do with a draft pick is waste it, so if a pick is totally wasted in the first round, a team gets a zero.  If it’s not optimally used, it will get some compensation between 0 and the max.  For the first 16 picks, a team can receive up to five points for a draft choice, in the next 16 picks of the round, 4 points is the maximum.  For the second round, teams are either awarded three points for a sound pick, or get zero points for missing the market entirely (25 of 32 picks in the round received the points, this year).  All trades are either given two points if they were perceived to be overall beneficial, or zero points if they were not perceived to be beneficial.

The average number of process points given out in this draft was 7.47 points/team, with 7 points representing the median value.  Not coincidentally for a well-designed measure of draft-day aptitude, a team that picked in the lower half of the first round and the second round, and made no trades but hit on both picks would get precisely 7 points.

Process points is as much a measure of opportunity of aptitude, so the one team that scored 0 points in process points was the Chicago Bears, who did not pick in the first two rounds.  The Bears did just fine with what they had, but process points is unconcerned with a teams ability to capitalize on the later player-development based rounds.  Teams that draft well will do better because they draft well, but they won’t outproduce the teams that can develop their own talent.

Without further delay, lets get to the two teams that played the draft the best — before the other 30.  Oh look, wouldn’t you know that the apple didn’t fall far from the tree. Format is <Rank. Team Name (score)>.

1. New England Patriots (17): The Patriots really aren’t a good drafting team, but process points likes the way that they control the NFL draft year after year.  They do it by having more 2nd round picks than any other team consistently.  Then, they manipulate the draft with trades to try to get a lot of first round quality talent.  It’s a strategy the Pats can afford to use because they fill holes effectively with free agency, but it has not worked to net them many superstars.  If you look down their roster, the Patriots have hit home runs on Logan Mankins, Jerod Mayo, and Sebastian Vollmer, but outside of that, there…just…isn’t…much draft related success.  The process the Patriots use is excellent, but the results need to start matching the process, or they will need to get desperate soon.

2. Denver Broncos (15): Denver, more than any other team in the league, was a prime candidate to trade back, and they executed an excellent two part trade back, first getting off the clock with the 11th pick, and then being able to move back with Philadelphia from 13 all the way to the end of the first round, and then moved back up to get Demaryius Thomas.  Thomas filled the teams biggest need, but really remains the one questionable pick for the Broncos in this draft.  They then traded up again to land Tim Tebow, who fills their next biggest offensive need: projectability at the QB position.  In the third round, Eric Decker has all the makings of a go-to number one player in the NFL, the ideal complement for Thomas, who might just be a deep threat.  He’s stacked his offense for a run in 2011-2015, but the Broncos will have to rely on the development of young defensive players like Robert Ayers, Alphonso Smith, and Darcel McBath to be a contender in 2010.

T3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13): A focused draft at two areas.  They added highly touted prospects such as Gerald McCoy and Brian Price to their defensive interior, and gave QB Josh Freeman two outside targets in Arrelious Benn and the flaky Mike Williams.  Vandy S Myron Lewis is the other highly touted piece of this class.  It pretty much all rides on the outcome of this draft in Tampa, but process points suggests that it’s going to have every chance to work.  PP particularly reflects trading up with the Raiders to select Benn.  If Benn is a number one guy, Freeman is a much better QB for it.

T3. Seattle Seahawks (13): Russell Okung was the best player available at no. 6, and an instant top tier tackle.  Golden Tate was the best overall player at no. 60, and his being on the board pretty much makes the Whitehurst trade a freebie, as he would have been my pick early in the second round as well.  The key to all of this is whether Earl Thomas is an elite free safety in the NFL.  Process points awarded a full 5 point complement to the Seahawks for his selection, but if he’s the next Ed Reed, this goes from an excellent draft into an all time historically great draft that could produce up to three hall of famers.  Hyperbole aside, the Seahawks have dominated process points since I created the system in 2008, so if they don’t make some unexpected noise this year, they might have a talent development issue.

5. San Francisco 49ers (12): I did not award the 49ers a trade bonus for moving from 13th to 11th to nab the last elite tackle on their board, Anthony Davis, but they didn’t pay too steep of a price if they wanted to be sure they got him.  That selection got the whole 5 points: he fills a major need, and doesn’t need to be stretched out into being a LT because the team already has Joe Staley.  Then they grabbed Mike Iupati 6 picks later, and he turns the teams biggest weakness, guard, into a strength.  Taylor Mays wasn’t deserving of a first round pick, but the 49ers were targeting him very early, and didn’t have to move up to get him before the run on safeties claimed him.  Subjectively, I’ll say the 49ers had the best draft of anyone, and clearly capitalized on trading their 2009 2nd rounder to Carolina (became Iupati) who selected DE Everette Brown.  They would have been third in process points if the trade up had been more defensible.

T6. Detroit Lions (11): In the last two years, the DETROIT LIONS are one of the five highest scoring teams in process points.  Ndamukong Suh gave them the full complement of five, and then they moved up out of the second round, before teams could reset their boards (+2 points), and took RB Jahvid Best who is about as fluid a runner as anyone in the draft.  The overall quality of this class for the Lions will be determined by CB Amari Spievey, taken at the top of the third round.  He’s out of the grading range in process points, but if he turns into a no. 1 type CB, this draft is a rock solid A.  If not, it’s probably still a B unless Spievey really struggles.

T6. Oakland Raiders (11): The Oakland Raiders scored in double digits?  I might have to check to see if the system is broken.  The Raiders did not get a full complement of points for the Rolando McClain pick (is he really a top ten type LB?), but combine what they did get for that pick with two points awarded for the trade down with the Bucs, another two to nab a pick from the Pats when they wanted to jump the Ravens, and a full 3 for the pickup of Texas DT Lamarr Houston, and the Raiders posted a 7 point second round.  Process points doesn’t care that the Raiders picked up a top 20 NFL QB in Jason Campbell for next to nothing, but win shares analysis suggests that the Raiders are now somewhere between 2-3 wins better, whatever that’s worth.

T8. Cleveland Browns (9): Last year, Eric Mangini’s Browns won process points, with a single season high of 18.  This year, results were mixed.  They drafted defensive backs with their first two picks receiving 4 of 5 points for Joe Haden (probably needed to trade down to get a 5 point player), and then getting a bit redundant with TJ Ward of Oregon, a safety with a third round projection in the eyes of many.  The Browns big score was a well executed trade up into the end of the second round to land franchise runner Monterio Hardesty, the Browns best move in the first two rounds.  Process points doesn’t care that the Browns got the best QB in the draft at the end of the third round, but you know, when Jake Delhomme is your QB, I think Browns fans can appreciate the pick.

T8. Miami Dolphins (9): The Dolphins executed the first major trade of the draft by moving down all the way to no. 28 in the first round for a pair of points, and still landing their guy, DL Jared Odrick, and then using that pick they acquired on edge-rusher Koa Misi, accounting for all of their 9 process points with just one move.  Being at the right place at the right time is everything, and the Dolphins managed to compete with all other teams in the draft and STILL trade for Brandon Marshall.  The team is missing it’s second round pick from next year still, so Marshall still has to make the Dolphins look smart.

T8. Dallas Cowboys (9): The Cowboys traded up twice in this draft: one to get up ahead of the Ravens for WR Dez Bryant, a great move, and once to get up five or six spots and select LB Sean Lee, which was probably not necessary.  Bryant and Lee are both great value picks who fill the need of pass game playmaker and run defense playmaker, giving the Cowboys seven points for players and two more for the trade that netted them Bryant for a top ten draft.

T8. Philadelphia Eagles (9): The Eagles went hard after defensive ends, and while pass rush had been an issue last year — an issue that DEs Brandon Graham and Daniel Te’o Neisham should solve — they also acquired Darryl Tapp from the Seahawks for a mid round pick, and I’m pretty sure they can’t play all those guys with all-everything DE Trent Cole.  That’s a lot of draft value just to suggest that Victor Abiamiri is a disappointing player, and incumbent Juqua Parker always struck me as one of the better players on that defense.  Seems like this is a case of turning a strength into a very different strength.  S Nate Allen solidifies a position that isn’t nearly as crowded.  I relented and gave the Eagles points for the trade up to get Graham because the Eagles needed to add an impact player, which Graham is, but 4 of 5 points is all I could do with the log-jam of value players they have now at DE.

T12. Kansas City Chiefs (8): The Chiefs draft was a little bit confusing overall, but I think they approached it the right way.  I’m not as high on Eric Berry as others are, but process points doesn’t care what I think of individual players, and the relative success of the last S to go in the top five picks, Sean Taylor, supports the Chiefs actions.  Dexter McCluster solves a major need for the Chiefs of offensive player who-is-electric-with-ball-in-hand, but the pick of Javier Arenas seems like a bit of overkill.  It’d be one thing if he were to return punts AND play corner, but with 3rd year corners Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr both developing into lockdown CBs, Arenas’ ceiling is as a nickel defender and punt returner.  I think there’s room for a team to have two players like McCluster and Arenas, but I don’t like drafting them in the same year because they will age similarly, limiting overall returns.  OL Jon Asamoah is great for scheme and value in the 3rd round, unfortuately, he’s drafted too late to force the Chiefs into double digit process points.

T12. Buffalo Bills (8): I really think the Bills quietly had a big time draft…they just need to find some offensive tackles eventually.  C.J. Spiller as a top ten pick does not fill a need, unless that need is awesome, exciting player who can captivate a dying fanbase in a way that Fred Jackson cannot.  2nd round NT Torrell Troup does fill a big need, and he’s a better athlete for the position than either Terrence Cody or Cam Thomas.  That’s it for process points for the Bills, but I thought they had a good second day, and they should get a starting caliber RT out of either Ed Wang or Kyle Calloway.  The only problem the Bills have before they can be a playoff contender is that they can’t grab a QB and a LT in the first round of next year’s draft.  If they can find one of those or the other this year, they could be a playoff team in 2011.

T12. Houston Texans (8): The Texans are traditionally workmanlike in the draft, so the roster is highly talented, and I think a lot of people are aware of this, just waiting for “the breakout” to happen.  Well, it’s tough to give them full credit for CB Kareem Jackson in the top 20, as there is considerable system risk in that pick that they could have avoided by taking Kyle Wilson or Nate Allen.  The Texans traded down in the second round, then back up for RB Ben Tate, who seems like the ideal complement to Steve Slaton.  I gave two points total for the trades (instead of 4), as Tate or someone comparable likely would have been there at no. 62, considering that their initial trade (Vikings took Toby Gerhart) started to pull the RBs off the board.

T12. Baltimore Ravens (8): Gave up a third rounder to get Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals, which they were able to get back once they missed out on Dez Bryant and the Broncos made them an offer they couldn’t refuse to get Tim Tebow.  I might just have Ravens draft blinders for giving them the points for both Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody, but they really do love Kindle.  Still, this could very easily be a 5 point draft instead of the 8, I just sided with history and gave the Ravens the benefit of very legitimate doubt.  The mid round TE drafting gives Joe Flacco plenty of interior options, but Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason can’t hide the fact that the Ravens can only run their downfield offense through Donte Stallworth, who didn’t play football in 2009, and wasn’t good in 2008.  Better him than Mark Clayton, I guess.

T16. Arizona Cardinals (7): Dan Williams falling to them at no. 26 was a stroke of luck, but the Cards aren’t complaining.  In the second round, they really love Daryl Washington of TCU given that they traded up to get him (I wouldn’t have gone that far up to get him, but that’s just me).  Overall, this was a below average draft, because the work they did after the first two rounds was highly uninspired.  It’s a two player defensive oriented draft, and process points gives full credit to the Cards for those two players.

T16. New York Jets (7): Kyle Wilson is the million dollar insurance policy that will make Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum look really smart when teams start to pick on Antonio Cromartie.  Deep in the playoffs against the best quarterbacks in the AFC, the Jets will need all the speed in the secondary they can get, as this is pretty much the reason they weren’t in the super bowl last year.  Vlad Ducasse is a need-oriented pickup who will replace Alan Faneca as the lines weak link from day one.  Good haul there for the Jets, but the rest of their draft was tied up in young runners, so while they’ve now set their offensive backfield for next year, I still think that Sanchez + Tomlinson-Greene-Joe McKnight might be the achilles heel of this team if they fail to win the division and make the postseason.  Because of consecutive drafts with very few picks, this team is going to age very, very fast.  The Jets must win this year.

T16. Indianapolis Colts (7): Ho-hum.  Jerry Hughes is a top fifteen talent in this draft who is a perfect scheme fit for the Colts, and Pat Angerer is the same perfect scheme fit at linebacker for a defense that needed to get some youthful pieces to go with it’s undrafted superstars.  The Colts needed a fix at LT, but for right now, that fix will remain: Peyton Manning being superhuman.

T19. St. Louis Rams (6): They really screwed the pooch on the Bradford pick in hindsight when the 33rd pick would have netted them their choice of Clausen or McCoy (plus they could have had Suh), but Bradford is the strongest first overall QB prospect since Eli Manning/Philip Rivers in 2004, so that has to count for something (in this case: 3 points).  In the second round, the Rams landed OT Rodger Saffold to be the bookend tackle to Jason Smith.  This does two things: it hedges against a poor rookie season by Smith, and it makes Alex Barron expendable while Sam Bradford should be well protected in St. Louis.  With that said, Saffold is as much of a value pick as a need pick, and even with a nice pickup in Mardy Gilyard in the fourth, Bradford will be throwing to Donnie Avery, Gilyard, Danny Amendola, and TE Michael Hoomanawauai as a rookie.  That’s not going to win a whole lot of games, but at least his AC joint should hold up in the NFC West.

T19. Cincinnati Bengals (6): TE Jermaine Gresham missed 2009 with an injury, which kind of takes the luster off him as a TE prospect.  That didn’t scare away the Bengals, but perhaps it should have?  If they’re not getting great value on the pick (and they aren’t), this draft was too deep at TE make the Bengals ignore their other needs.  I charitably gave the Bengals 3 out of 4 points for Gresham, and then gave them everything for getting Carlos Dunlap in the second round.  The Bengals draft will be made if WR Desmond Briscoe can develop into a suitable replacement in the offense for Antonio Bryant by 2012.  For right now, the Bengals prospects as a team ride on their defense, and on Bryant, and that’s a tough situation.

T19. New Orleans Saints (6): Patrick Robinson was a half-decent pick at corner, but I think it’s most notable for outing Malcolm Jenkins as the long-term solution at free safety, regardless of where Darren Sharper plays this year.  I gave the Saints three points for selecting Robinson, and a full three points for a major steal on Charles Brown at the end of the second round, which makes Jamaal Brown expendable to the Saints.  They could have a trading partner in the Redskins, who need a RT (J. Brown always had a better projection as a RT), and still have a few nice defensive pieces from Gregg Williams’ days as DC of the Redskins.

T22. New York Giants (5): Jason Pierre-Paul was not a good value at no. 15, nor does he fill a need for the Giants, but on the flip side, the Giants are actually a great place for Pierre-Paul to begin his career because of the DL structure they have there.  I gave them two points for that much, though the team gets very little out of this outside of perhaps a capable run defender on the strong side.  Linval Joseph from ECU got the three points for being a second round pickup, but Joseph’s name was a late appearance this high on boards, and once again, the Giants needed less to improve their talent on the DL, and more to organize the talent they are paying out the nostrils for.  They needed a running back, and didn’t pick one.  They needed more OL depth (right now, their OL in two years is: Chris Snee and Will Beatty) and drafted just a guard (Mitch Petrus) on the third day.  With the Cowboys and Eagles making big leaps, and the Redskins at least filling their biggest need (at OT), the Giants are the NFC East draft loser.

T22. Carolina Panthers (5): I broke rank on this one and gave the Panthers two points for NOT trading up to get Jimmy Clausen earlier in the second round because the Panthers ended up getting him anyway.  The Panthers scored an 8 in process points last year, and did so without a first round pick, because they traded for a pick with which to take Everette Brown, so playing the market perfectly in this draft was especially crucial.  Clausen was the most perfect pick in the draft for need and value.  I’ll be the first one to say it: Tony Pike is such a good value in the 6th round that there could be another Matt Flynn-Brian Brohm situation if Clausen struggles to adjust to the pro game.

T22. Minnesota Vikings (5): They traded out of the first round because they weren’t going to pick anyone with a first round market value, so that’s two points right there.  Then after mulling it over for an entire night, the Vikings…just took Chris Cook with the 34th overall pick, which is hardly defensible given the time they had to prepare for it.  Toby Gerhart should be a great no. 2 running back for the Vikings for the duration of his career in Minnesota, but they traded up considerably to get him, costing themselves their third round pick, which didn’t make a lick of sense, knowing full well that Gerhart can only be a starter if something terrible happens to Peterson.  So you get, optimistically, a no. 2 CB and a no. 2 RB, then are done for the first three rounds.  I don’t get it.

T25. Washington Redskins (4): If Russell Okung is such a great blend of need and value for the tackle starved Redskins that he’s worth five points, what’s the discount rate for taking Trent Williams because Okung is off the board just because?  I’ll be generous to the Skins and give four points for picking Trent Williams, who should project to be the starting LT in Mike Shanahan’s offense for at least the three seasons he holds the title of Head Coach.  After that, Shanahan figures to either be fired or named Emperor of Washington.  The Redskins don’t have a second round pick because they acquired Donovan McNabb in an attempt to have a slightly more different quarterback with a losing record against NFC East competition in the last 5 seasons.  Hail!

T25. Tennessee Titans (4): The Titans picked a solid player without moving around.  Technically, they were picking on the front end of the first round, which means that Derrick Morgan could have netted them up to 5 process points.  I’m giving the selection 4 out of the 5.  Morgan is probably a coin flip to be an NFL quality pass rusher, which means that while their were better options available to the average team, if the Titans really, really liked Morgan, they were best off just taking him and not trading down.  I like USC receiver Damian Williams in the third round, but the Titans did not pick in the second round.

T25. Pittsburgh Steelers (4): The Steelers were selecting at no. 18, and with Mike Iupati off the board, I think they made the right decision to select Maurkice Pouncey to start at Guard immediately, and be their Center of the future.  Grabbing Jason Worilds out of Virginia Tech in the second round doesn’t really follow from their organizational strategy of grabbing pass rushers well behind their true value in the draft, if anything Worilds was a reach.  The Steelers spent the middle rounds valuing quantity over quality, which raises the question regarding their OLBs: where are they going to get all this roster space?

T25. Atlanta Falcons (4): Gave them the full points for addressing both need and value in the top 20 picks with LB Sean Weatherspoon from Missouri, one of the rangiest pass defending LBs in years, a skill that is truly necessary to be a valuable 4-3 LB these days.  The Falcons did not pick in the second round because of the Tony Gonzalez trade.  As this demonstrates by the Falcons, Titans, and Redskins being at this level, having the positioning to land an impact player at a position of need in the first round does not win you a whole lot of process points: teams who are working with few picks need to be able to work the draft order to get more picks to grade out well by process points.

T25. Green Bay Packers (4): Same deal with the Packers, except that they did have their second round pick, and ended up drafting Purdue’s Mike Neal to play DE in their 3-4, a need pick with little value attached.  Their first round pick was Iowa’s Brian Bulaga, who is all of 20 years old and about as polished as a tackle can be in the draft.  Bulaga will probably start at RT for the Packers this year instead of the aging Mark Tauscher, and he can also kick across to LT if 34 year old Chad Clifton gets hurt.  Ultimately, the Packers might be stuck starting Clifton through 2011, but the Bulaga choice goes a long way to decreasing their dependency on tackles they have had since the beginning of the decade.

30.  San Diego Chargers (3): The Chargers are already a made team based on an outright domination in the draft from about 2003-2008, but over the last two years, process points have absolutely hated what the Chargers have done.  This year’s trade up for Ryan Mathews cost the team it’s second round draft choice.  Mathews is a great player who is worth all three of the teams’ process points, but at worst, Jahvid Best would have been available at no. 28 and the Chargers could have kept their second round pick.  As it goes, plenty of responsibility to fill holes will be put on rookie mid round selections LB Donald Butler, and NT Cam Thomas.

31.  Jacksonville Jaguars (2): The Jaguars get two out of five potential process points for addressing a position of need with whatever the opposite of value is in Tyson Alualu with the 10th overall pick.  The Jaguars held the key to the entire draft with the 10th overall spot, as the next three picks were all traded.  Deals were on the table for this pick, and they could have traded down while remaining in the first round.  Jared Odrick, the other player the Jags were considering with this pick, lasted until no. 28, and he probably was the guy who was going to go just before Alualu did.  To make matters worse, Jacksonville did not have a second round pick, which they traded for the 2009 third rounder that became Derrick Cox, and could have really used the second round pick that, say, Miami got for allowing SD to get in position to take Ryan Mathews.  Two points will be given for the player, but noted here is a major missed opportunity by the Jaguars.

32.  Chicago Bears (0): RIP Gaines Adams.

*****

Here are the cumulative leaders for process points through the 2009 and 2010 NFL Drafts first and second rounds:

Rank	Team	Point Total
1)	Patriots	32
2)	Broncos	28
3)	Browns	27
4)	Seahawks	25
5)	Lions	24
6)	Dolphins	20
7)	49ers	19
8.	Bills	17
9)	Texans	16
10)	Ravens	16
11)	Rams	15
12)	Buccaneers	15
13)	Bengals	15
14)	Packers	15
15)	Eagles	14
16)	Cardinals	14
17)	Raiders	13
18)	Panthers	13
19)	Chiefs	12
20)	Saints	11
21)	Cowboys	11
22)	Falcons	11
23)	Giants	11
24)	Steelers	10
25)	Colts	10
26)	Redskins	9
27)	Jaguars	9
28)	Jets	9
29)	Titans	9
30)	Vikings	8
31)	Chargers	4
32)	Bears	2

There are decidedly few things that I’m actually an expert on.  I’m an expert at evaluating the present value of future predictions (not much).  I’m an expert in terms of appreciating the awesomeness of Royals RHP Zack Greinke.  I’m an expert at cost-benefit and break-even analysis.  Someday, I’ll be an expert in football win shares.

I don’t know a whole lot about much else, but I can safely say that I am a Jason Campbell expert.  In the wake of Campbell’s cross-country trade from Washington to Oakland, there are only winners and no losers.

The biggest winner is probably Campbell himself, who received a contract extension as part of the trade, and goes to the only team in the NFL who actually treats quarterback reclamation projects as future franchise quarterbacks.  If Campbell had instead gone to Buffalo or to Carolina, he probably would have started this year, but he would have played the role of stopgap, and eventually, veteran backup on a bunch of teams.  The Cardinals and Rams were both interested in Campbell as a future starter, but both had better options come along before compensation was seriously discussed.

That left just the Raiders.

Campbell provides the Raiders instant legitimacy, and for Campbell to escape the NFC East is the thing his career really needed.  Observers are aware that Campbell’s numbers remain in the middle of the pack in the NFL despite playing for a team that has no business ranking anywhere near the middle of anything offensively, but because Campbell has spent the development portion of his career playing in the NFC East where he was annually the 4th (or even 5th!) best quarterback in a tough division, and more significantly, the defenses reigned supreme.  Six games a year, Campbell would get blasted by the likes of Dallas, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants.  In17 starts against NFC East competition, Campbell compiled a 4-13 career record.  He handled the Eagles pretty well, going 3-3 against them career, and always raised his game against the Cowboys, despite going a mere 1-4 against them, but Campbell never could solve the Giants, managing a paltry 0-6.

Escaping the hard-hitting defenses in the NFC East and replacing them with the cupcake defenses of San Diego and Kansas City, not to mention inheriting a home field that never gets frigid and windy in the winter, Campbell instantly projects to the AFC West as a 90.0+ QB rating player.  In addition, the Raiders will offer him receiving options that he never had in Washington in Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens, not to mention that Darrius Heyward-Bey becomes a more legitimate NFL player now sans JaMarcus Russell.

Ultimately, the Raiders’ success and Campbell’s success depend on an improvement in the quality of the offensive line from last year, an Oakland unit that was a very Washingtonian-style sieve.  The Raiders added Hillsdale’s Jared Veldheer and Maryland’s Bruce Campbell (no relation) in the draft, and they combined with incumbents Erik Pears and Mario Henderson will need to stabilize the tackle position if Campbell is going to have any chance to perform for the Raiders.  I’m assuming that Campbell, eventually, will need to be moved inside (to guard) in a zone-blocking scheme to be successful, and probably will not contribute much as a rookie.  Veldheer, I think, is facing a steep learning curve, but could handle the right tackle position in Oakland as soon as this season.  If Oakland is willing to get really aggressive, they might try to kick Robert Gallery back out to left tackle and see if experience has prepared him to handle elite edge rushers.

Really, we know Oakland has the receivers, and know they have the runners to be successful, and now that they have the quarterback, the offensive line (left tackle, center) become the biggest offensive question marks from the Raiders.  More impressively, they made all this improvement while spending the first two rounds trying to solidify the quality of their defensive front.  The biggest winner in all this is CB Nnamdi Asomugha, who, for the first time in his stellar NFL career, looks to play for a winner in Oakland.

Does all of this bay area optimism mean the Redskins were losers in this trade?  It really doesn’t mean anything of the sort.  The Redskins spent most of the last two years trying to actively destroy Jason Campbell’s trade value, so the fact that they received no present value for Campbell doesn’t reflect at all on their current front office.  While the McNabb trade was likely a poor solution to a non-issue, once it’s taken for granted that McNabb is on the Redskins roster, there was no real reason to keep Campbell around any longer.  The pick the Redskins received will appreciate over time, and eventually, it could turn into a valuable piece of the Shanahan-era Redskins.  Right now, trading Campbell just frees up a roster spot for a team that needs all the roster space it can get to rebuild.

The Redskins are worse, overall, right now than they were at the beginning of last year (by a significant amount) and the McNabb-Campbell saga has been a large part of that, but the Redskins needed to tear down the structures that were not working.  Campbell’s .235 win percentage inside the division (.457 outside of it) made him very expendable to the Redskins, and McNabb’s .417 winning percentage inside the NFC East since 2005 (.375 against teams that aren’t Washington) will be a vast improvement as the Redskins strive for 6 or 7 victories this year.

Making Oakland a playoff contender is more difficult that it appears because no improvement at the Quarterback position will make them comparable to San Diego in the AFC West, but the Redskins have a single advantage this year: they play the AFC South so they can be the team that denies the Texans, Jags, or Titans a playoff tiebreaker.  In a large sample, Oakland probably isn’t good enough to make a postseason push, but as the AFC showed us last year, you don’t have to win more than 8 or 9 games if you happen to hold the right tiebreakers.

That’s the best chance the Raiders have had in about six years.

Usually, I prefer to focus on draft winners, because it’s easier to accentuate the positive and focus on the teams who will be more competitive in the future thanks to strong draft classes.  This year, that just doesn’t make practical sense.  There are seemingly logical defenses for every team’s draft.  Yes, even the Redskins

So the way I am going to approach this list of draft losers is to suggest that there were teams that got completely screwed over by the market conditions and that the strategies they took into the draft ended up backfiring.  This is not to say that they won’t come out with a successful draft in a few years, but that they got played by the other teams, who swiftly and intelligently positioned themselves to win the draft.  These teams: eh, their drafts just sort of got lost in the moment.

1. St. Louis Rams Usually, the team with the first overall pick sets the trends for the entire first round, but thanks to the existence of Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy at the top of most teams boards, the Rams didn’t set any trends by taking Sam Bradford first overall.  In a year where the top three or four quarterback were as closely packed together as ever, the market revealed the Rams’ pick on Bradford at no. 1 to be unecessary.  Bradford would not have gotten out of the top ten if the Rams had passed on him, in fact, he probably doesn’t get out of the top five.  But that’s missing the point: there weren’t four teams in this draft that decided that they needed to come out of it with a quality quarterback, and the Rams were one of those teams.  If the Rams had correctly gauged the intention of the 31 other teams, they could have snagged Jimmy Clausen at no. 33, and added Ndamukong Suh with the first overall pick.

This might have been the textbook definition of “getting too cute” in landing your quarterback in the eyes of many, but it appears that the vaunted right to choose a quarterback is going to cost the Rams 70+ million dollars in salary at the position, and having Suh on their roster as well.  That makes them a clear cut draft loser, at least until Bradford can prove he’s head and shoulders above the rest of this class.

The Rams also fall further behind a division that had a very strong draft.

2. New York Giants There comes a point where targeting a single position ceases to be a strategy (see: 2009 and 2010 Jaguars drafts) and becomes an obsession.  This is the tipping point for the New York Giants.  This team really needed to grab a quality runner above all else to maintain offensive balance, and instead, ended up taking Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph with their first two draft choices.  I’m not certain that Jay Alford, Barry Cofield, and Osi Umenyiora were responsible for the Giants missing the playoffs last year, but the Giants are convinced they were, so here comes expensive competition.  As for linebacker and RB, the two weaknesses on the Giants roster: Phillip Dillard, LB out of Nebraska is the only help.  The offensive line needed young blood, so the team added Guard Mitch Petrus from Arkansas, who will not project as a tackle at the next level as David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie age.  I don’t have much of a projection on anyone in this class for the Giants, so whether they get any help whatsoever is in doubt.

3. Minnesota Vikings Minnesota picks up some nice parts in Toby Gerhart and Chris Cook, but even with the landing of a value pick in Everson Griffen (at DE, the team’s strongest position), this is a remarkably weak haul.  Gerhart will be a nice player and a fan favorite, but I don’t know what he brings to the NFL that made him worth jumping up for.  Cook became the 6th CB off the board, and while he projects as a NFL starter eventually, he’s clearly behind anyone taken in front of him, and a few that weren’t.  Griffen could be a nice pickup in the fourth, but when exactly will he see the field?  Then: Chris Degeare, Nathan Triplette, Joe Webb, Mickey Shuler, Ryan D’Imperio…just a whole lot of boring.

The Vikings are a team that really isn’t built around the draft at all, so maybe they will continue to win independent of a weak draft class.

4.  Atlanta Falcons Almost avoided making this list because I think LB Sean Weatherspoon will be a superstar in this league, but the pick they gave up prior to last year for Tony Gonzalez is coming back to bite them here because I don’t think they believed that they would miss the playoffs in 09.  They took DT Corey Peters at value in the third round, and they took G Mike Johnson at value, but they needed to be more aggressive with their two third rounders when they were missing a 2nd round pick.  The rest of their draft was special team based, and there’s usually good value there in the later rounds, but if the Falcons bettered themselves at all during this draft, it will be because of the upside of Weatherspoon as a starting LB in the NFL.

Day 2: rounds 2 and 3

In my mind, two stories typify the 2010 NFL draft’s second day:  the continuing free fall of first round quarterback prospects Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy, in which Clausen fell into the middle of the second round, and McCoy made it all the way to the late third, and the league-wide run on talented safeties (like Nate Allen, pictured above).  For Clausen, everything ended up alright when he fell into the lap of the Carolina Panthers and he ends up in perhaps the best situation of any quarterback in the draft.  McCoy on the other hand, avoided falling out of the third round entirely when the Browns “broke rank” to select him because Mike Holmgren loves him as a prospect.  A lot of teams did love Colt McCoy, but in this deep draft, not one pulled the trigger in the top 80 picks.

McCoy is trapped now in Cleveland.  He will get the Brian Daboll version of the west coast offense he needs to succeed, but McCoy won’t play much in 2010, there might not be football in 2011, and as a third round pick, not playing in your first three seasons is more or less as good as playing terribly.  McCoy doesn’t have any easy way onto the field, and doesn’t have a lot of help once he gets there.  I think Mike Holmgren — not the coach or the GM — believes in McCoy, but unlike if he had taken him early in the second round when his value was still high, he’s not invested in him.  McCoy, more than anyone, needed someone to invest in him and in that sense, he was a draft day loser.

USF’s Nate Allen went to the Philadelphia Eagles, officially, the first piece of compensation that Philadelphia receives for trading Donovan McNabb to the Redskins.  That’s the overt part of this choice.  Quietly, Allen became the fourth safety off the board, in front of USC’s Taylor Mays, who had been projected as a first round pick from roughly 2007, up through Thursday night.  Mays’ slide caused him to lash out at former USC coach Pete Carroll, who’s Seahawks went a different route in taking the Mack Brown-approved Earl Thomas.  Allen could have been a late first round pick, but as it turned out, was picked just after TJ Ward of Oregon, and started a run on safeties that would suck up any and all starting caliber players on the draft’s second day.  Safeties, not pass rushers or corners, are being viewed as the new currency of pass defense, if they aren’t good enough, you need to get better ones.  And so it was done.

Quality runners were also a commodity on the second day of the draft, with Minnesota trading up to get Toby Gerhart, and Cleveland trading up to get Monterio Hardesty.  The guys who fell through the cracks were Georgia Tech’s Jonathon Dwyer, drafted by Pittsburgh in the 6th round, and Mississippi State’s Anthony Dixon, taken by the 49ers in the 6th round.

Day 3: Rounds 4-7

The biggest deal with day 3 was the trade that sent Jason Campbell to Oakland to be their quarterback, netting the Redskins only a 4th rounder in 2012 in return — which is a glorified release since the 2012 draft isn’t yet scheduled to happen.  There will be plenty more thoughts on this “trade” forthcoming.

To me, the Denver Broncos were the dominant team on the draft’s second day, but the Seattle Seahawks continued to make headlines trading for multiple big name RBs: Lendale White and then Leon Washington.  The Philadelphia Eagles also landed a crap ton of projectable talent, which is not surprising given all their picks.  Just as pick of a story is the Patriots inability to leverage holding a ton of second day picks into great market success.  The Pats are smart enough at the top of the draft to not overpay for the talent they want (looking at you, Jacksonville), but as you get later and later, the Patriots don’t always get great steals.  And by not always, I mean practically never.

I thought the Bills did really well on the draft’s second day, and the Ravens had a typical Raven draft (which is good).  The Bears had a strong second day, which is nice for them because their first two days netted only Florida S Major Wright.  The Packers always do well on the second day, and the Niners and Cards are in good position as well.

Draft losers to come in another article.

I have just one complaint about the NFL’s streamline draft form: it makes it really hard to live blog.  No question, they pack a ton of action into those three hours.

In a draft that was so deep at all levels, there were bound to be a bunch of draft winners.  I’ll quickly go through and grade every team that picked on their first day haul.  My process points system will be applied after the second day.  The leaders in gross process points through two years:

1. Seahawks 24
2. Dolphins 22
3. Packers 19
4. Falcons 19
5. Browns 18
6. Jags 17
7. Bills 17
8. Chiefs 17

Anyway, I wanted to get caught up on some of the major storylines from day one before day two gets started.  So, here that is:

Jacksonville and DT Tyson Alualu

What made the pick difficult to swallow is not the player: Jacksonville’s getting an excellent prospect who will almost certainly outperform the contract given to the 10th overall player (most do).  What’s tough, in hindsight, is that each of the next three teams successfully traded down in the draft.  Conclusion: Jacksonville enslaved themselves with the draft value chart, not wanting to be on the worse end of the trade, and then just got nothing in return for taking Alualu above draft value.

Understand, for the future, that there is nothing wrong with giving a huge discount to trade down.  You’re not losing the trade, unless you don’t make it.

Teams with two first round picks

Seattle, Detroit, and San Francisco were all winners.  San Francisco, in particular, doesn’t have two years to rebuild that line, they need to be in play for the NFC West right now.  Seattle needed to rebuild while staying in play for the NFC West, which is even more difficult, and they arguably did better with Russell Okung and Earl Thomas, two big time value pick at positions that Seattle has been weakened at each of the last two years.  The Lions, to their credit, picked Ndamukong Suh because he was the best player and the bet fit for their system.  Then they came back later getting Jahvid Best, a rare talent at RB, in the first round intelligently before the board could reset.

However, the team that went to the well until it was done was the Fourty-Niners: between Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, and Mike Iupati, this is a premier offense that will discover once and for all if Alex Smith is the answer at QB.  If he isn’t they are primed to take a QB next year, this system is ripe for a rookie to succeed.

Tebow, the Bronco

I really loved the Broncos mix of patience and aggression in this draft, and Josh McDaniels really is the right man to coach up quarterback Tim Tebow.  I’m not quite as sold on Demaryius Thomas three picks before that, I think that might have a high probability of backfiring and not helping the Broncos achieve offensive greatness.

Tebow makes sense in Denver for plenty of reasons.  First of all, McDaniels now has all the pieces in place a year after playing with half an offense.  Secondly, Tebow is third on the depth chart going into this year, probably good for his development.  They have nothing invested in Brady Quinn, and it’s clear Kyle Orton is not the future.  Finally, it’s a good system fit, there are a lot of similarities in spread concepts between what Tebow has done at Florida, and what McDaniels likes to do.  More differences than similarities, but Tebow not coming in with a knowledge deficiency will help his development.

Love the Broncos offseason this year.  Just love it.

The Giants make a head-scratcher

Jason Pierre-Paul to the Giants is a really horrible pairing of not having a need, and making a draft reach.  I get where they really like him, but it’s a largely non-sensical move.  Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Mathias Kiwanuka are already there, and while the pass rush underachieved, it’s not like adding Pierre-Paul makes that problem go away.

CJ Spiller is a really shrewd pickup for Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix in Buffalo, and is a multiple win upgrade per year over the disappointing Marshawn Lynch.

No one at all had the Bills pegged for this with all their holes. And now it appears that three or four top offensive linemen have fallen out of the top ten picks. The Bills could have gone in that or a few other directions, but I can’t knock this pick. Spiller is a top seven talent.

The first “surprise” of the draft is that Trent Williams came off the board to the Washington Redskins. It was really only a surprise for two reasons: a lot of observers believe Russell Okung is just better, and the Redskins had planted talk among top media targets that they were going to pass on OT. They played us all, or at least those of us willing to be played.

Seattle benefits from Washington’s idealism by landing the best offensive player in this draft just one year after landing the best defensive player in last year’s draft. The biggest news here: Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Hasselbeck now actually have fantasy value.

I’ve got a few things I’m hearing leading up to the draft.  I’ll polish off a few Mock-free predictions prior to the Rams going on the clock.

1. Remember above all: offensive tackles are the currency of the draft right now.  For all the talk about Eric Berry’s draft stock, or C.J. Spiller’s draft stock, or any number of the first round defensive linemen in this draft, or even Jimmy Clausen: the players who are going to pace the first round are the group of linemen at the top: Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Brian Bulaga, and Mike Iupati.  Teams will trade around the idea of landing these guys, up or down.
2. With that said, safeties are becoming a backup currency of sorts.  Eric Berry and Earl Thomas have watched their values skyrocket the last two days, and with Taylor Mays dropping, it’s going to push up the value of those safeties, perhaps into the top ten.
3. I think four quarterbacks are going to be picked in the first round, and you know who those four are.  I’m thinking Jimmy Clausen will NOT be the second quarterback taken in this draft.  I don’t think there’s any real chance he gets out of the first round.  As soon as the first round tackles all get taken, the QBs market can keep up.
4. I have a feeling that Tim Tebow is going to be the second QB taken, and I think Cleveland will trade down and get him in the middle of the first round.  I wouldn’t rule out McCoy as the no. 2 guy just yet.
5. I think the Lions will take Ndamukong Suh, but they won’t sit on that pick tonight.  They will look for value in the back end of the first round, but not necessarily to take a RB.  I think they’ll look for an offensive lineman or a corner.
6. I think, ultimately, the Redskins are looking to trade down from no. 4 and that’s what the buzz around Eric Berry is primarily about.  But if they are forced to stay put, I have no idea what they are going to do.
7. I know how badly the NFC East powers Dallas and Philadelphia want to trade up, but I think quietly, the Giants want to trade up into the top ten even more.  They will have plenty of chances to do so.
8. Watch the Jags and Browns if they trade down: I think they’ll be major players in the QB market.  Neither appears to be high on Jimmy Clausen, which is why I think up to three QBs could go before Clausen.
9. It’s the Bills that are going to hold the key to the draft.  They are likely stuck with the ninth overall choice, but who they pick could set off a flurry of trades…or it might not.

That’s what I’ve got for the first day, but today’s activity is going to be just the beginning of this weekend’s events.  The last eight picks or so in the first round are going to be critical for a bunch of veterans who could end up traded for picks by 5:00 tomorrow.

I honestly don’t have a plan to cover the draft.  I could do a live blog using embed software from Cover it Live!  I’ll probably just stick to instant analysis updates.  If you have something you want to read here, leave it in the comments.

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Right here is your one stop cheat-sheet for all starting caliber prospects in this draft, split into positions as not to blow up the internet.

I’ve poured over these quarterback ratings since Halloween, and I think I’ve eventually arrived at the same consensus everyone else has regarding this quarterback class: it’s good, and there are about four guys in it who project as starting quarterbacks.  After all this time, and absorbing opinion after opinion, and throwing considerable amount of personal research into this, I’ve arrived at the same conclusion that pretty much everyone else has about the top four.  I just don’t think the right to choose your quarterback in this draft is all that important.  Ideally, you’d want to go for the best fit for your situation, but when teams take a quarterback early, they tend to work to tailor the situation to their quarterback pick, so perhaps that’s an irrelevant situation.

1. Colt McCoy, Texas, Mid-first round grade

2. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Mid-first round grade

3. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame, Late-first round grade

4. Tim Tebow, Florida, Late-first round grade

Neither Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen really fits the bill as a top five prospect, and Clausen in particular is fighting an uphill career against a few unfortunate trends: Notre Dame quarterback, underclassman, inaccuracies between the numbers, holding the football.  I tentatively gave Clausen the nod over Tim Tebow for No. 3 QB in this draft, but again I think I could win with either of them, especially if I could get them with my second pick in this draft.  McCoy and Bradford are both quite good, but I think McCoy has both the greater upside, and will reach his potential faster.  The only thing that keeps McCoy from being a first overall pick is that the scheme is always going to have to protect his weaknesses in stature.  Bradford has different derivation of the same fatal flaw: he’s going to have to move just not to get hit.

Clausen is the game-manager type in this draft.  He’s essentially Matt Leinart: he will play the game-manager role in the NFL, and you can get a first round picks value out of that if you don’t have a quarterback, but if you already have competency in that position, he’s not much of an upgrade.  Tebow is kind of the same way: they’re both NFL game managers, but if that’s what you need, that’s what you should take.  Not every team needs a scheme superstar like McCoy or Bradford.

Class Strength: Strong

Put more simply, it’s a quantity over quality class.  It’s four deep with starting QB prospects, and there’s plenty of depth after it to boot.  I think it’s a stronger class than 2006, and in the last ten years, third only to 2004 and 2008.

5. Dan Lefevour, Central Michigan, second/third round grade

6. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State, second/third round grade

7. Mike Kafka, Northwestern, 3rd round grade

8. Tony Pike, Cincinnati, 3rd round grade

A wide range of prospects in the second tier, these guys are lumped together because I think they all exhibit different abilities of starters, if not the complete package.  I think Dan Lefevour is a bit limited in his upside, as that looks something like a mid-tier starting NFL QB, but he just looks different in pads with a pass rush coming at him than he does in a pair of shorts.  Robinson, on the other hand, has considerable upside to perhaps someday be a top ten NFL quarterback, and will have the advantage (curse?) of not playing right away.  Mike Kafka is more raw than anyone in this class as a passer, but he and Tony Pike are both Lefevour-type gamers who could creep into the second round in a little bit lighter draft.  Pike is what you look for in a passer physically, and comes from the Brian Kelly passer tree, and I know that there are a lot of teams that think they can turn Tony Pike into Joe Flacco, and at least one that thinks they can turn him into a poor man’s Tom Brady given enough time.

9. John Skelton, Fordham, fourth-round grade

10. Jarrett Brown, West Virginia, fourth-round grade

11. Jonathon Crompton, fourth/fifth-round grade

These mid-rounders are your big armed prospects with NFL abilities who don’t have a starters draft profile, but at least have the opportunity to receive the Charlie Whitehurst treatment (for a limited time only: a good thing!) in an otherwise prosperous career as quality NFL backups.  I’ll be honest, any of these three guys probably profiles as a better prospect than Mike Kafka, but I had to give Kafka a bonus for the starter’s upside I believe he possesses, even if he ends out flaming out badly when he gets there.

And… the rest of the guys I think will have at least a cup of coffee in the NFL from this draft class:

12. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan

13. Max Hall, Brigham Young

14. Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State

15. Bill Stull, Pittsburgh

16. Sean Canfield, Oregon State

So there you have it.  A list six months in development: the official LiveBall Sports top 16 QBs in the NFL draft.