LiveBall Sports

On the night where Oregon was universally “crowned” as Pac-1o champion, October 31, because they mercilessly crushed USC in Eugene, it sure looked like a well-earned berth in the Rose Bowl.  And to be fair, Oregon is still the very best team in the conference, at least prior to this game being played tonight.  But it’s tough to comment, especially as an outsider, on where this season would rank for the Ducks if they don’t seal the deal tonight.

This is the strongest that the Pac-10 has been in recent memory, and USC was the heavy favorite until Oregon won by three touchdowns in a shocking outcome, given the media slobber that accompanies the Trojans wherever they go.  Just being in that game would have been a pretty solid achievement at the time, and the win had people around the program and outside of it talking about the Ducks being the greatest team in the history of the program.

But since Halloween night, USC has gone on to prove incredibly mediocre in November, losing whatever shot they had at regaining the Pac-10 title from the Ducks with an absolute beatdown at the hands of a Stanford team that was simply better through and through, and a near loss to cross town rival UCLA, a win that salvages their season and saves them from questions about being the worst USC team in the last 15 years.  The Ducks, meanwhile, turned around and lost badly to Stanford, and was taken to overtime by Arizona in their tumultuous November slate.  Clearly, though, Oregon remains good enough to beat any given conference opponent on any given Saturday.

Today, however, is a Thursday.  And if Oregon doesn’t win tonight at home against their in-state rival, what exactly have they accomplished this year in a historical sense?  How would this team be any better than the Oregon team that ranked as high as #2 in the polls in 2007 before they lost All-American quarterback Dennis Dixon to an ACL tear, and later, graduation?  When they played a legitimate top ten team in Boise State on the road on opening night, they got absolutely crushed.  When they played Stanford in Palo Alto, they got beaten soundly.  And then, there’s a must win game against Oregon State, and well, a 6-2 conference record and share of the Pac-1o title with the Beavers is nice and all, but now we’re talking about no Rose Bowl berth, probably no BCS bowl berth, and a finish in the final polls somewhere between 10-15 if they win their bowl, and between 20-25 if they lose it.

Not a bad year.  And well short of their preseason goals.  But they can meet all of those goals, if they can just beat Oregon State.

Here’s why they’re in for a dogfight:  the Beavers might be the better team at this point.  Now, based on the accomplishments of each team, Oregon has earned the higher pre-game ranking, and the highest rating in the conference.  But Oregon State, especially in recent weeks, has really begun to open up the margin of victory on their opponents.  Early in the year, not so much, and point differential for the season greatly favors the Ducks.  The strength of schedule also breaks in Oregon’s favor.  But the balance favors the Beavers, who can beat teams either on the ground or through the air, as opposed to Oregon who remain a fantastic offensive team when they can run it (USC) and a horrible one when they can’t (Boise).

The other thing is that this game was played last season in Corvallis, OR with the Beavers playing for the Rose Bowl, and the Ducks playing for nothing (victoriously).  Oregon’s win extended USC’s dominance over the Pac-1o for one more year, but with USC out of the picture, there’s no element here of one team playing for nothing except a regular season victory in a rivalry game.

Few would doubt that the Ducks have the defensive edge, but with their passing efficiency and dual threats on the offense, Oregon State can put Oregon in a defensive bind the way that no other team since the season opener has.  In a shootout, the Ducks would overcome the Beavers in the second half when the roster depth begins to set in.  But I don’t think this is going to be a shootout.  In bigger games this year, Oregon has given up the opportunities at big plays with the exception of the USC match-up.  I don’t foresee a long-strike offensive showing from the Ducks, rather, a calculated rushing attack that tries to establish the run and use the pass secondarily.  Oregon State’s offense will make their share of mistakes against this fast and talented defense, but they’ll be in it to win it at the end.

And that’s why I don’t see the better team throughout the year running away with the win in this one.  The only team in the conference that matches up as well against Oregon as the Beavers do was Stanford, a ten point loss.  But, still, the Ducks are undefeated at home this year, with obscene point margins and it would be tough not to like the at the end in a close game.

Unless, of course, Oregon State has the football when it matters most.

The search for the man who will replace the man who replaced the man who replaced Bob Davie began in earnest on Monday, and the two front-runners are saying all the right things.

Oklahoma HC Bob Stoops:

“I will never confirm or deny whether I talk or not talk to anybody, and I won’t be interviewing for any jobs,” he said.

…

“I’m going to be at Oklahoma next year,” he said. “If (athletic director) Joe (Castiglione) will have me and President (David) Boren, that’s what I intend to do.”

Cincinnati HC Brian Kelly, on Monday:

“Oh yeah (laughing).  Every day it’s a flood.  I get real estate cards and it’s crazy.  (Things like) ‘I want to be your new real estate agent in South Bend.’ I just laugh and my administrative assistant, she kinda just throws most of that stuff away because she knows I’m not interested in anything that doesn’t have a Bearcat on it.”

And this is Kelly earlier today on a Cinci-area radio show,

“I’m Staying, Man!  I’m staying. Why would I go? I’m very happy in Cincinnati.”

Do we believe either of these guys?  Should we?

Yes, you should, but if you’re going to, you better learn how to read between the lines.  And if you can see between the lines, you’ll notice three things.

• Kelly and Stoops are both legitimate candidates for the Notre Dame job,
• They both want to be there,
• Neither really believes that they are going to get the ND job.

The armageddon situation for a division-I college football head coach is to let it slip that you are interested in a job, but to not land it.  In Kelly’s case, he’s simply been too careful with his language in prior interviews to not be taken seriously as the front runner for the job.  He’s almost the ideal candidate: offensive guru, wildly successful at every level, Irish Catholic in heritage, runs a strong program based around high graduation rates: Kelly is the prototype Notre Dame man.

And, to be frank, I have it on good accord that he absolutely wants to take the Notre Dame job this year if it’s offered to him.  He’d be gone in a heartbeat, and there’s no amount of money Cincinnati can offer him once he’s been offered the ND job that would keep him.  But, reading between the lines, the job has not been offered to him yet, despite mutual interest from the university.

And, given that, nothing Kelly has said this week is incorrect, when taken at face value.  The simple probability of it suggests that there’s a higher probability that Kelly will never be offered the job than that he’ll get it.  Oh, and by the way, he’s still the front-runner for the position.  But until Kelly is sold that he’s actually going to get the opportunity, it would be completely irresponsible to offer potential Bearcat recruits any inkling that he won’t be the head coach of Cincinnati next year.

I should elaborate: Notre Dame wanted Brian Kelly at this time last year.  He was interested at the time, but the situation was far more murky: the Irish still had faith in Charlie Weis to get the program turned around, and weren’t going to let him go on the off chance that they could get Kelly or a Kelly-equivalent.  The timing of the move was poor, so Kelly essentially told them he was not interested at the time.  One year later, Weis is definately out, the coaching position is vacant, Kelly’s stock is at an all-time high, and you can see why everyone sees this move happening in the near-term future.

But what of Stoops’ quote?  There’s not a whole lot of uncertainty there.  He’s going to be at Oklahoma next year, and that means he’s not a candidate for the ND job?

Untrue.  He is a candidate, and never denied speaking to Notre Dame.  Now, according to Irish AD Jack Swarbrick, the conversations between Stoops and Notre Dame had not occurred as of Monday, which would make Stoops’ statement stronger.  But we’re not supposed to believe that at least a cursory interest conversation will not happen, are we?

Like Kelly, Stoops being a candidate hardly means he’s going to get a job offer, and unlike Kelly, there’s a good chance that Stoops would turn down the job if offered.  But as long as Notre Dame remains merely a remote possibility, Bob Stoops can’t do anything that could be interpreted as interest in the job.  And whether he is, or isn’t looking at getting the heck out of Norman, I have no idea.

The only constant with these quotes is 1) that both coaches truly believe that when this situation unfolds, they’ll remain employed by their current employers, and 2) if Notre Dame calls with two bagfulls of hundred dollar bills in hand, they’ll be listening.