LiveBall Sports

I think the pro bowl selectors (players and coaches, not fans) seem to do a good job every year.  The only problem with the current process is the handful of awful selections made out of a group that generally does pick the guys having the best years.  In this article, I’ll look at some of the questionable selections, and those who got snubbed for them.  Here’s 13 guys who were, we’ll say lucky that they got in.

WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos

There’s no doubt that the development, mentally as much as physically, of Marshall has been a big deal for the Broncos to go win 8 games this year (with one more to play), but last year he was sort of a ridiculous pro bowl pick, more for being a workhorse than great (with Jay Cutler’s field-reading ability and all), and he’s deserving of a pro bowl nod, but he’s not in the same class as Vincent Jackson who Marshall has now snubbed in two straight years.  Marshall is a lot better than he was a year ago, but Jackson has a legitimate case along with Reggie Wayne to be called the best receiver in pro football.

The Jackson snub is not defensible.  Selectors are simply ignorant.  You could make an argument that Marshall and Jackson both deserved to go along with Wayne and Welker, and that Andre Johnson and Randy Moss should be the odd players out.  Defensible, but I’d give the nod to Andre Johnson, one of the best talents in the game.

OT Jake Long, Dolphins

Great player, great career ahead of him, this is the first of many pro bowl trips for the big guy from Lapeer, MI.  This year though, you can’t say enough about the year that Titans RT David Stewart had, except that they couldn’t find a spot in the pro bowl for him.  Granted, the AFC is flush with dominant tackles right now, and there’s nothing wrong with Long getting to go, but Stewart might have been the best tackle in the league this year, and his linemate, Michael Roos, might have been the best in the league last year.  Jason Peters was in the NFC this year, so he wasn’t around to snub more deserving players, so either Jake Long, or Joe Thomas should have been out.

And unfortunately for Stewart, “The Blind Side” star Michael Oher is on everyones radar and could be a pro bowl player next year.  Stewart may never get to go.

RB DeAngelo Williams

Great year last year, and had more yards this year than Jonathon Stewart did.  With that said, DeAngelo Williams was probably not the best runner in his own backfield this year, which has prompted the inevitable trade talk.  Instead, I would have given the nomination to either Ryan Grant, or Frank Gore for third running back.  Both were more deserving than Williams, Gore, I think, the most deserving.

Either way, Adrian Peterson feels like a by default selection with not a ton of RB talent in the NFC this year.  Williams just looks out of place on the roster.

TE Jason Witten

Does a bunch of irreplaceable things for the Cowboys offense, but definitely took a back seat this year to Miles Austin as well as that running game he spent so much time blocking for.  Instead, why not give this spot to Vicante Shiancoe of the Vikings or Brent Celek of the Eagles?

OT Jason Peters

Really, it’s been three straight years where you could argue that Peters has been a below average NFL tackle, but made the pro bowl anyway.  Now, if you’ve seen the NFC field for tackles (as well as the next guy on this list), you would know why this is still defensible.  The only good pick was New Orleans RT Jon Stinchcomb as a reserve, which is right about at the level he has played at.  There weren’t a bunch of pro bowl worthy tackles, but that doesn’t mean it was right to snub Falcons LT Sam Baker because he’s not a big name.  Also in play:  RT Winston Justice of the Eagles.  Remember him?

OT Bryant McKinnie

I have three ideas where this pick could have gone instead of to McKinnie, who has been an outright disaster.  I mean, Orlando Pace has been just as awful, and he’s been to pro bowls before.  Why not him?

There were some token picks in Giants LT David Diehl, and Falcons RT Tyson Clabo.  Guys who have some history, and weren’t awful this year.  But why not:  this pick should have been Detroit LT Jeff Backus, who really helped hold the OL together after catching a lot of flack in the offseason, and after a whole bunch of Lions fans wanted to see him replaced and his contract dumped.  Backus responded by the best year of any blind side tackle in the NFC North.  Unquestionably.  Which means, of course, that the other pro-bowl tackle in this division comes from a different team.

G Leonard Davis

Does Leonard Davis get in without that star on his helmet?  Almost certainly not.  The guy wasn’t even the best guard on the Cowboys OL this year.  That would be Kyle Kosier.  I want to ask, here you have a Guard from the NFC East making it, and you somehow leave Chris Snee off the team?  Where is the logic in that?  On what planet is Davis more valuable than Snee?

G Steve Hutchinson

Lifetime achievement award for a guy who is bound to make the hall of fame one day, but despite being the best lineman on the Vikings, Hutchinson hasn’t been this ineffective since his rookie season.  What’s really shocking is that none of the blockers from the Rams OL that powered a revival for Steven Jackson made the pro-bowl.  Not one.  I have to say, instead of lifetime achievement awards, I see not the problem with rewarding Jacob Bell, LG for the Rams, with a pro-bowl berth.  It could go to Jason Brown, the center, instead, I suppose.

LB Demeco Ryans

We all know about the downturn in production for Texans DE Mario Williams, statistically, his season was not as strong as his last two, but the Texans needed to make a scheme change, which means that he needed to make some sacrifices for his team.  So I’m okay with his selection for that reason.  But also joining Williams in the pro bowl was rookie LB Brian Cushing and Ryans.  That makes three pro bowlers in the Texans front seven.

Um.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but the Texans haven’t sported an average defense in the Gary Kubiak era.  Along with Williams, Demeco Ryans has been the one constant in a defense that never improved before this year, and still gives up yards in chunks.  Ryans can’t possibly be a better pick than Bart Scott, and even Jerod Mayo who missed time, seems like a better selection for this spot.  But I don’t see how you could possibly snub Colts LB Gary Brackett.  Show me a team that would try to build around Ryans over Brackett and I’ll show you a team that’s never made a postseason.

S Ed Reed

Trancendental player who missed a ton of time to injury this season.  I mean, great player, but you’d be better off picking someone who was actually on the field.  Oakland S Tyvon Branch was better this year than Ed Reed, as well as Colts S Antonie Bethea,  or Patriots S Brandon Merriweather.

S Jairus Byrd

Same deal.  Great season with seven interceptions, but, over the guys mentioned above?  Hardly.  I’d keep him in over Reed because he played more games.  Even he is on IR now, and won’t be able to play in the game.

DE Julius Peppers

Really horrendous selection who doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near a pro bowl.  Not only that, he’s starting over Trent Cole, who really had as good a year as any in the NFL.  In this spot, I would have put either Washington’s Andre Carter, New York’s Justin Tuck, or definately considered 49ers DE Justin Smith, who had a career year in what has turned out to be a pretty strong career.

CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie

Sheldon.  Brown.

Of course, that would have ruined a bi-annual tradition of sending a CB named Cromartie who didn’t play particularly well to the pro bowl.  You should at least have to be the best CB on your team to get considered.  Except if, like in Brown’s case, the best on your roster is already in the probowl.

****

I think the NFL should be able to expand the rosters to include players that deserve it.  Bengals C Kyle Cook and CB Leon Hall, Redskins LB London Fletcher, 49ers DT Aubrayo Franklin, and Green Bay DT Ryan Pickett, and LB Clay Matthews all deserved to go, but didn’t so much get snubbed as that the competition was simply too strong.  I think the NFL should re-vamp the process to allow for players who deserve to make it, but play in a strong field.

And with the weaker fields, well, the selectors need to do a little digging and not send a guy who doesn’t deserve it to the pro bowl.  The pro bowl may always be a meaningless game, but that doesn’t mean that the honor itself has to remain a popularity contest.

I’ll start by throwing out my thoughts on the 2009 Colts:  I don’t really understand their decision, never really bought their public comments about the records, and find the seventy-two Dolphins to be quite insufferable.  I am confident that I am in no way biased on this issue, outside of the above statements.

Maybe 16-0 doesn’t matter anymore.  Maybe 19-0 really is the only mark of perfection.   Maybe if the Colts go on and win the Super Bowl, their season will be every bit as special as a 19-0 season.  After all, they were the front runners all season long, winning in the post-season was always made out to be the primary concern, and no one can ever take that historic win over New England away.

I have nothing to add that hasn’t been said already.  Except for this:  now that the Colts are 14-1, it’s going to be very hard to consider them the favorites in the playoffs.

That’s it.  They haven’t lost anything except pride.  But due to fear, or due to whatever the heck caused Jim Caldwell to pull his banged up starters in the third quarter, when the San Diego Chargers come to town, who is taking the Colts?  On what history?  Heck, the way Philip Rivers has been playing, the Colts (who have the best quarterback in the history of the game in his prime) don’t even have a quarterback advantage.

Of course, the Colts have secured homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Unfortunately for them, the NFL playoffs are a single elimination tournament.  The road to Miami only goes through Indianapolis until someone goes in and beats them.

I don’t believe in momentum, at least not in the practical sense, but you have to remember that the Colts are already a very injured team, a rag tag group of superstars and players on rookie contracts who fit into their financials as well as their defensive scheme.  There wasn’t all that long of a line to draft Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in the last two years, and despite them being two of the better recievers in the draft, only going to a team with Peyton Manning at the trigger can truly make a career.  This is who the Colts are.  They need their stars just to not make a mockery in the playoffs.  They need them healthy.

And again, I don’t believe in momentum.  But then again, neither does Joe Posnanski, really, and his blog post on the Colts, perfection, and NFL tiebreakers 1) threatens to put this blog out of business, and 2) was so spot on that, even though you’d expect nothing less, was still that impressive.

And then there’s another point, one best described in Bull Durham: “I love winning, man. You know what I’m saying? It’s, like, better than losing?” Every pro football player knows how much better a week is after a win than after a loss. Look, I don’t know if momentum can carry a team in the playoffs. But it sure seems to me that a team that decided to go for the perfect season would be a scarier team to face in the playoffs than a team that lost at home to the Jets (and they could lose again this week — what’s the point in starting Peyton Manning in bleeping BUFFALO? Why even have him make the trip?). It seems that an undefeated team would be much scarier to play than a team that decided it was better to lose with a 14-0 record than put its wittle precious pwayers in harm’s way.

If the Colts win the Super Bowl, people will always wonder if they could have gone undefeated and made their case for greatest team ever. If the Colts don’t win the Super Bowl, Jim Caldwell’s decision will live in infamy in Indianapolis for a long time. I understand the decision, but I don’t agree with it.

This is not only perfectly worded, but about as edgy as I’ve ever seen Joe get.  And it’s not even directed at a particular unsuccessful baseball franchise.  And as good as this is, Ross Tucker does even better in 140 characters:

If history, records, and stats don’t mean anything to the Colts why start Peyton on Sunday in order to keep his starting streak going?

Yep.  Pretty much.  The Colts aren’t going to throw away Peyton Manning’s consecutive starts streak in Buffalo.  He’ll get one drive to do his thing out there with the starters, it’s unlikely that anyone will get hurt (just like against NY last week!).  It’s possible, and there’s a downside risk to every action, but you can fully expect Peyton, Reggie, Jeff Saturday, and Dallas Clark (but not Gijon Robinson) to be ready for action when the Divisional round roles around in the middle of January.

I firmly believe that the Colts fully intended on winning that game; after all, the Jets were still trying to win a game with Mark Sanchez.  Ultimately, he’ll be the reason they lose this week and miss the postseason.  Curtis Painter really didn’t need to do anything in the last two quarters to win it, just don’t turn the ball over.  The Colts had to think he was well prepared during the week to get in there and win the game.

But this overestimation of the gap between themselves and the rest of the AFC (i.e. the Jets) is exactly why this Colts team will not win the super bowl.  Or even a single playoff game.  The assumption that seemed smart at the time is, “spot our backups a five point lead, and we trust them to go win a football game.”  Curtis Painter will not be on the field in January, but a lot of the other players that gave up that lead and had a sorry performance without Peyton Manning there to lead them will be major players in January.

The point is that this is not really a great team.  It’s not a perfect team.  It’s just a team on a one game losing streak, like the Baltimore Ravens, like the Miami Dolphins, like the Jacksonville Jags who took them to the wire ten days before.  As Posnanski first said, it’s now an imperfect team that is reporting injuries, has no mystique, and offers neither the highly powered scoring offense of the Chargers or Saints, nor the stingy defense of the Ravens or Steelers.  This Colts team, more than those of the past, has become a one man show.

If any one player can lead his team to the super bowl, that man is Peyton Manning.  But in the wake of this loss, Manning has no allies.  Just his own talent, his receiving corps that he has trained, and his own superior preparation.

Do I think Peyton Manning is one of the all-time greats?  Of course.  Do I like him to win in the playoffs against the best teams in the AFC by himself.  No, no I do not.  I offically think the Colts will go one-and-done in the playoffs.

Buffalo at Atlanta There’s plenty of issues with the Falcons right now,  but the Bills cannot exploit their issues, and the advantage at home is great enough for me to think that they can win comfortably.

Kansas City at Cincinnati Cincinnati has lost two games in a row, and really needs to clinch the division this week before it begins to slip away.  In comes Kansas City, to ensure that the Bengals will get it done.

Oakland at Cleveland James Harrison had his day in the sun last week, but now Derek Anderson is back in for the Browns, and Charlie Frye can finally get some measure of revenge.  The Raiders must be quicker on defense than the Browns offensive line to win, and should be.

Seattle at Green Bay The Packers find themselves in the same boat as the Bengals.  You want to make the playoffs?  Get it done against an inferior opponent tonight, and most likely, things will take care of themselves.  The Packers are one of the strongest teams in the NFC, and they’ll clinch this week with some help.

Houston at Miami All week, I’ve figured that Miami would win this one with their backs against the wall, including in my projections for the AFC playoff race.  One problem.  The Texans will not go quietly.  I think there is a high probability that Houston can be outcoached, but they are the much better team, and the much better team usually wins.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Ben Roethlisberger did not play in the first meeting between the two teams, which went to overtime.  Joe Flacco did struggle, but outplayed Dennis Dixon at got the win.  Pittsburgh plays in their home finale today, and they need a win to stay relevant.  The Steelers will live for one more week.

Carolina at New York Giants More than the Redskins quitting on the season, the Giants played their most complete game.  They won’t have to be quite as good this week to be just as victorious.

Jacksonville at New England So many players on the out and out for New England this week that it’s a team that could be looking at the fourth seed in the conference.  For all of their problems this year, the Patriots would move to 8-0 with a home win.  Jacksonville absolutely has to have this one, but I predict the New England defense comes up bigger, later to seal it.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans This has a chance to be a good one…into the second quarter.  Saints.

St. Louis at Arizona The Cardinals have really struggled the last two weeks, but at the end of the day, one team has Kurt Warner, and the other has Keith Null.  Keith Null…is no Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Cards.

Detroit at San Francisco The Drew Stanton era starts this week for the Lions.  A fast 49ers defense ensures that this era ends next week.

Denver at Philadelphia After becoming the only team in NFL history to give up a game clinching TD to JaMarcus Russell, the Broncos need an excellent game plan to recover and beat the hottest team in the NFC, Philadelphia.  They’ll get a barn burner, but ultimately, Kyle Orton just can’t throw the ball like he needs to in order to win in December.

New York Jets at Indianapolis The Jets aren’t going to be able to generate points on the road, even if the Colts pull their starters in the first quarter.  If Peyton Manning and co. can put just 14 points on the board, this will be a comfortable win for the Colts that the starters won’t have to finish.

Dallas at Washington The Cowboys have shown the ability to finish games, which is the critical skill in division games such as this one.  The Redskins sit at 0-5 in the division this year, so the Cowboys will get everything they have.  It will be enough to lead in the third quarter, but the Redskins defense is like clockwork: if they hold a six point lead with 5 minutes to go, they know it’s time to give it up.

Minnesota at Chicago Things are about to get very, very bad in Minnesota, because the Chicago Bears are going to win their home finale, and Minnesota is about to fall out of having the bye week in the NFC.  It’s going to be a long practice week for the men in purple.

Are the dark days over in Oakland?  Finally?  Yes Raider fans, it’s okay to breathe the air again.

Amazingly, the Raiders will go for their sixth win in a single season for the first time since January 2, 2005.  They didn’t get that win.  To find the last time the Raiders actually won six games, you have to go all the way back to November 17th, 2002.  On that night, the Raiders beat Tom Brady and the Patriots behind 297 Rich Gannon passing yards, and two Zack Crockett touchdown runs.  Yes, it’s been awhile.

Other teams have been inept just as long as the Raiders have, but Oakland’s consistent losing has been remarkable.  The Lions won 7 games in 2007.  The Bills won 9 games in 2004.  The Browns won 10 games in 2007.  The 49ers have been just as pathetic, but even they made it to 7 wins in 2006 and again in 2008.  The Redskins made the playoffs two seperate times, and had another 8-8 season since the Raiders were last relevant.   The Bengals have won a division and the Cardinals have played in a super bowl since the Raiders were last relevant.

Point is, since the Raiders last made the postseason in 2002, no other NFL franchise has failed to win at least 7 games in a season.  The Raiders have twice made it to 5-11, a high water mark.  This Raiders team is the strongest they’ve had since Bill Callahan was the coach, Rich Gannon was the quarterback, Bruce Allen was executive of the year, and Al Davis still talked to people who had knowledge of league matters.

It does look like the Raiders will extend that streak of double digit losses for at least one more season.  However, unless the Raiders drop the final two games of the season to fall to 5-11, I really doubt that the story of the 2009 Raiders will have anything to do with that losing streak.  Here’s a team that endured perhaps the worst season by a quarterback in NFL history, and has managed to improve on offense from the prior season.   The defense has been very spotty, but in games where they’ve been in it, they’ve finished.  They haven’t just preyed on other awful teams, they’ve played one of the five toughest schedules in the NFL this year, and have defeated the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers, and Broncos, and don’t forget that they very nearly beat the Chargers in Week 1.  The Raiders are 3-2 since benching JaMarcus Russell, and one of those wins was punctuated by a signature drive lead by Russell.

Furthermore, the Raiders were not healthy entering this season.  They’ve had to win games with major injuries on the offensive line, without their best receiver for most of the year, their best offensive player (TE Zach Miller) missed the Denver win, and dynamic RB Darren McFadden, a potential match-up nightmare in the Reggie Bush mold, has missed most of the year as well.  Through it all, players that the Raiders have been waiting on have developed.  This hasn’t happened in many, many years for this organization.

With that said, the Raiders haven’t been very good this year on the whole, and they’ve been incredibly fortunate to win the games that they’ve been in this year.  An improving team does not get blown out by the Giants and Texans, shut out by the Jets, or outscored by 160 in their first 14 games.  None of that suggests that this team is really making strides for the future.  It suggests that a team is running in place, but finally collecting on some of that fortune that allows other bad teams to have those 7 win seasons without making real progress.

The Raiders must be mindful of this.  The progress they’ve made in the win column against strong teams is real progress, but the Raiders haven’t been and are not a markedly better team than in past seasons.  Rather, the players who are making plays to win games at the end: WRs Chaz Schilens and Louis Murphy, Miller, and McFadden are the right guys.  The Raiders do not currently have their trigger man of the future on the roster, and as scrappy as the offensive line has been in clutch situations against top competition, it hasn’t been very good on the whole.  There are no fewer than four positions on the offense that need to be addressed in the draft, not to mention the additional contract issues with players such as Robert Gallery that must be taken care of.  On top of those issues with the offense, the Raiders defense hasn’t been a complete unit since 2006, and the team would still be best off if they were to receive compensation for Nnamdi Asomugha now, as opposed to having him walk after the 2011 season.

The Raiders have a chance to be a wild card competitor next season, but that can be a dangerous focus for the organization.  It’s not a team that’s one player away.  It’s about seven players away, and as good as Asomugha has been for the silver and black, he’s about as useful as Champ Bailey was to the 2003 Redskins.  The defense is still bad with him.

Against the Derek Anderson-led Browns, the Charlie Frye-directed Raiders can make a point.  A convincing win for the Raiders could put to rest the era of horrendous football and re-establish the Raiders as a properly run NFL franchise who doesn’t have super bowl talent, but can compete in a weak division.  Many years were shamelessly wasted in transition, but it’s comforting to know that the Raiders might reach respectability before the end of the day tomorrow.

This is a public service announcement.  It is my duty to offer you all the playoff scenarios in the AFC in one place.  Since I couldn’t find any site that would do this for you, I’ve decided to take the initive myself.  Merry Christmas.

The 10-6 Scenario

The 10-6 scenario refers to any situation where the lowest seed in the AFC would end up at 10-6.  For this to happen, both the Broncos and the Ravens would have to win out to make the postseason.  This makes things pretty simple.  It’s also a pretty unlikely scenario.

The 9-7 Scenario

This refers to any situation where at least one playoff team in the AFC ends up at 9-7.  It’s the most likely of all the scenarios.  Now, in order of probability of making the playoffs at 9-7:

• Baltimore would remain the team most likely to to make the postseason, simply because they can clinch the second seed in the AFC North with a win in either of their two games.  With a win over the Steelers this week, Baltimore can all but knock the Steelers from the playoff race, and can actually clinch a playoff berth with a Jets loss, and a Jaguars loss, (and either a Dolphins loss or Pats win: any scenario where the Pats clinch the AFC East takes them out of the wild card race).  It’s a little different if the Ravens lose to the Steelers and then rebound against the Raiders.  The Ravens would still clinch second place in the AFC North, but would need help to make the postseason.  They would actually need the Steelers to beat the Dolphins, would need the Jets to lose again, and then would either need Jacksonville or Denver to lose one of their final two games.  Still, barring something highly unexpected, the Ravens will be in.
• Denver is out a little bit further, because they head to Philadelphia this week, and while it wouldn’t shock me if they were able to overcome the Eagles, it would have to be considered an upset if they win.  It’s very likely they’ll be playing Kansas City for their playoff lives in Week 17, and that they’ll need some help.  It’s unlikely that they’ll be able to stave off Baltimore if they do not beat Philadelphia (remember that Baltimore beat Denver head to head, back when the Broncos were 6-0).  Denver’s best chance, unlike Baltimore, is to take care of business and get to 10-6.  But if they fall to Philadelphia, Denver needs help FROM Baltimore (or Miami) against Pittsburgh, and they’ll need Jacksonville to fall in one of these next two weeks.  But certainly, there is one likely scenario that has Denver missing the playoffs, and that’s if they lose to Philadelphia this week, and then the Steelers beat the Ravens, and beat the Dolphins.  In this case, we’ll have three teams making the playoffs from the AFC North, and the 9-7 Broncos will be home for the playoffs.
• Jacksonville is still quite likely to make the playoffs if they can beat the New England Patriots at their home.  Of course, it’s worth pointing out that the Pats are 7-0 at Gillette Stadium this year.  The Jaguars hold almost every tiebreaker imaginable, the lone exception being their Week 14 head-to-head loss to the Dolphins.  So if they win out, they need to get help from either the Texans or the Steelers against the Dolphins, and then just need to get a loss from either the Broncos or the Ravens (or both).  Technically, the Jaguars don’t control their own destiny because they could win out, and mathematically miss the playoffs.  But in layman’s terms, the Jaguars can make the postseason if they beat the Patriots and the Browns.  And if they beat the Pats on the road, it would be hard to argue that they don’t deserve it.
• The NY Jets might be on the ropes according to head coach Rex Ryan, but they actually have a very high probability of making the playoffs if they can just win out.  The problem is just that: the Jets have to be the least likely of all the 7-7 AFC teams to finish 9-7.  They have to go to Indianapolis and play the Colts, and then they’ll have to come home and beat the AFC North leader Cincinnati.  If they can drop the Colts for the first time this year, and beat the Bengals (and given their defensive scoring ability, anything is possible), they’ll need three of the following teams to lose: Miami, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Denver.  It’s highly likely that the Jets will make the playoffs if they can win out, but it’s just as unlikely that they can take care of their own business.
• Miami will be pulling hard for the Steelers and Chargers this week against the Ravens and Titans respectively.  With those two wins, the Dolphins will control their own destiny for the playoffs.  Of course, they still would have to beat the Texans and Steelers to get to 9-7, which is no guarantee.  You’d have to figure that if the Steelers are good enough to beat the Ravens, they would be favored in Miami for a game where the winner likely makes it to the post season.  But don’t sleep on the Texans.  The Dolphins went 11-5 last year, but fell to the Texans, who had no issue passing against their defense.  The Dolphins get to try to close out a playoff berth at home, so we will see just how much of an advantage it is to play in December in Miami.
• Pittsburgh is in a tricky situation because they probably won’t catch the Ravens, even if they beat them this week, and are likely to finish third in their own division.  But by beating the Broncos head to head earlier this season, no team benefited more from Oakland’s upset win on the road (ironically).  The Steelers of course, could hardly celebrate needing every one of Big Ben’s 503 passing yards to beat the Packers at the final gun.  However, Pittsburgh now needs to win out, and get some help.  They need a Denver loss to open up a playoff spot to be earned, and they need to pull for the Tennessee Titans to win out and take second in the AFC South.  If the Titans can do this (which requires a Jags loss or tie), the Steelers will tie with the Titans and Broncos for the sixth seed in the AFC, and will win it by virtue of sweeping those teams.
• Tennessee needs help to catch Jacksonville in the AFC South, but with a second place finish in their division, would be very much alive in the playoff race if they can beat San Diego at home, and Seattle on the road.  Tennessee’s problem is that they do not hold any tiebreakers with the two 8-6 teams in the AFC, and consequently, cannot make the playoffs unless one of the Ravens or the Broncos lose out.  They’ll need Pittsburgh to help them out against Baltimore, but then to turn around and lose to the Dolphins the following week.  They’ll also look for help from Philadelphia against the Broncos, but in any case, will need either the Raiders or the Chiefs to come through in Week 17 with an upset over the Ravens or the Broncos respectively.  This has a low probability of happening, but that’s what the Eagles thought when they needed a Raiders win last year to make the postseason.
• Houston has the lowest probability of making the playoffs of all the AFC teams, as they need to win out and get plenty of help.  Their scenario is very similar to that of the Titans: the biggest thing is that they need to see either the Ravens or the Broncos lose out.  Like the Titans, they also play a home game against a AFC division winner that they must win: they’ll play the Patriots, who could be resting starters.  If they can get to second place in their own division (they win out, and both the Jags and Texans lose), the Texans’ playoff probabilities become very real.  Because they hold tiebreakers over the Pittsburgh Steelers, any win by the Steelers over the Ravens would put the Ravens in a must-win situation on the road against the Raiders.  If they lose, the AFC North could send no teams to the playoffs, because the Texans would get the nod even if the Steelers win out.  For Steeler fans, it would be pretty devastating to get everything you needed to happen to make the postseason, and to take care of your own business down the stretch, and lose out because the Titans couldn’t take care of business in the AFC South.

The 8-8 Scenario

The 8-8 scenario refers to any situation where the last seed in the AFC goes to a team with 8 wins.  This means that one of the Denver Broncos or Baltimore Ravens manages to lose out, but none of the 7-7 teams jump in and take the open playoff spot by winning out.  Everyone loses at least once.

• Losses eliminate the Titans, Texans, and on a complicated common opponents and strength of victories tiebreaker that assumes no ties in the final two weeks of the season, the New York Jets are also eliminated from playoff contention.
• On the other hand, the Jaguars benefit greatly from this scenario.  They can beat the Browns to salvage 8-8, and all of a sudden, they just need the Dolphins to lose out, and then they’re in at 8-8.  This assumes that either the Broncos lose out, or the Ravens and Steelers both fail to get to 9 wins, which seems unlikely.  Of course, the whole 8-8 scenario is improbable.
• In the 8-8 scenario, the Dolphins need to beat the Steelers to remain playoff viable, but can overcome a loss to the Texans.  The Dolphins can still catch the Ravens if they lose out, but they cannot catch the Broncos thanks to the strength of victory tiebreaker.
• The Steelers cannot catch the Ravens if they do not beat the Dolphins.  But even a loss to the Ravens would not eliminate them from the playoffs if the Broncos don’t win again.  The key would be that the Jacksonville Jaguars would get the tiebreaker over the Steelers at 8-8 if they are there.
• In all other scenarios, the Ravens can make the NFL postseason without winning another game.  In any situation where the Broncos lose out, they can only make the postseason if the Steelers and Jaguars also lose out, without the AFC South winner reaching 9 victories.

Armageddon

NFL Armageddon occurs if the Raiders and Chiefs become great teams and neither the Ravens nor the Broncos win again the rest of the year.  On top of this, let’s propose that no team in the AFC except the division winners make it past 8-8.

In this scenario, Pittsburgh must beat Baltimore, Miami must beat Pittsburgh, and Houston must beat Miami.

• At 8-8, Miami clinches 2nd place in the AFC East over the New York Jets
• Baltimore still clinches 2nd place in the AFC North over Pittsburgh, who gets third.
• At 8-8, Denver is eliminated from playoff contention because of Pittsburgh reaching 8-8.
• The AFC South could go in any direction.  Houston reaches 8-8 in this crazy scenario, but that’s only good enough for second place if Jacksonville and Tennessee do not win again.  If they all go to 8-8, Jacksonville gets second in the division.  If Houston and Tennessee tie for second, Tennessee wins the tiebreaker.
• If Jacksonville gets to 8-8, they are in (5th seed).  If they do not, Tennessee and Houston are still out.
• If Jacksonville is in, Pittsburgh is out.
• In all likelihood, Denver gets in on strength of victory (this team has beaten NE, CIN, NYG, DAL, and SD this season), although Miami is conceivably close enough to catch them in a pie in the sky scenario.  Pittsburgh is now eliminated.  The Jags are your 5th seed, and the Broncos are your 6th.
• But if the Jags don’t get to 8-8, Denver is now the 5th seed on strength of victory (projected at: .444).  Miami is hot on their tails (projected at: .409).  They would be the 6th seed.
• And here is the craziest possible scenario I can imagine: Miami, Denver, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all finish 8-8.  If Miami catches Denver in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker, they get the 5th seed instead of the 6th.  Then Denver…doesn’t get anything.  If you take Miami out of the running, it goes back to head to head tiebreakers.  This means that Denver is OUT, by virtue of losing to Baltimore.  Only in the NFL, would the strength of victory statistic of the Miami Dolphins potentially determine whether Baltimore or Denver makes the postseason.  But there’s a possibility that happens.

The Most Probable Scenario

Here’s what I think will happen these last two weeks.  In week 16:

1. Miami beats Houston (Houston eliminated)
2. Philadelphia beats Denver
3. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
4. New England beats Jacksonville (Patriots clinch AFC East)
5. Indianapolis beats the Jets (NYJ eliminated)
6. San Diego beats Tennessee (Tennessee eliminated)
7. Cincinnati beats Kansas City (Bengals clinch AFC North)

And in Week 17:

1. Jacksonville beats Cleveland
2. Denver beats Kansas City
3. Baltimore beats Oakland
4. Miami beats Pittsburgh*  OR
5. Pittsburgh beats Miami

I think that Miami has a chance to spoil the postseason bid for the Ravens.  With Miami, Baltimore, and Denver all tied at 9-7, Denver is in as the 5th seed, playing Cincinnati in the wild card round, and the Dolphins are in as the 6th seed.  But I’m not about to rule out the Steelers in a must win game: they can save the hated Ravens!  If the Steelers win out, it not only puts them in over Miami, but it saves Baltimore, giving them the 5th seed, and knocks Denver from the playoffs.

So there you have it.  I’ll say that Baltimore and Pittsburgh grab the wild cards in the AFC.

Unless the Dolphins…never mind.

It’s tough to put this any other way, but at tonights Giants-Redskins game at FedEx field, the Giants are at the same crossroads that the Redskins stood at prior to this game just one year ago.

Last year, the Redskins honored fallen safety Sean Taylor at halftime of that game.  It was fitting, as the Redskins were still very much the same team that Sean Taylor’s death left vacant, trying to defend their home field against a Giants team that came in at 10-1, and would not have better days ahead of them.  A detailed film analysis of that game showed a Giants team that was really beaten up in the trenches by the Redskins, especially on the offensive side.  But a great individual performance by Eli Manning and a poor schematic approach by the Redskins allowed the Giants to win very comfortably regardless.  Things got worse from the Giants from that point, but it didn’t get any better or the Redskins.

Until recently, the Redskins were trying to be the old Joe Gibbs-style run/play-action offense that got them to the playoffs in 2005 and 2007, and started them off at 6-2 in 2008.  That game against the Giants really marked the point at which that style of offense and ball control was no longer viable.

One year later, the Giants sit at 7-6, and have gone 2-6 in their last eight games.  They come into Washington tonight as the same power running, pressure on the quarterback team that they were during last year’s game.  Problem is, they’ve largely failed to run the ball consistently over the last year or so, and this Giants team isn’t getting pressure on any quarterbacks.  The New York Giants need to remake themselves, and they don’t have a lot of time to save their season.

To be competitive this year, the Giants need to be a spread-type team that throws about 70% of the time and tries to limit the damage on defense while the offense throws them back into games.  But the Giants might find that type of team counter productive to the way they are currently built to outlast their opponents.  There are major design flaws in the current version of the New York Giants, ones that I believe the Redskins will exploit tonight at FedEx field.

The Giants need help to make the postseason this year.  First and foremost, they must help themselves.  But it’s worth asking what the prospectus for the Giants is if they can’t get it turned around in the final three weeks this year.  Let’s annoy Giant fans and presume the Giants finish 8-8, and out of the playoffs.  Where does a team with a high value quarterback contract, an inconsistent week to week passing game, no running game, and shambles of a one-time Champion defense go?

In the case of the 2006 Steelers, we’re talking about a defending super bowl champion who ended up going 8-8 the following season as they struggled defensively and their quarterback, without the benefit of a great running game, ended up leading the league in INTs and looking generally lost.  Two years later, the Steelers were once again world champs.  The “transition year” involved a division title, and first round playoff loss.

My best analysis leads me here: the Giants are much further in the hole than the Steelers were at that time.  The Steelers had a simple response to such an underwhelming season:  keep to the plan.  Draft pass rushers.  Let your passing game develop.

If the Giants could get back to the top by sticking to the plan, they absolutely should.  Try to remain a physicial team that uses Eli Manning’s refined sense of the pocket to help overturn the offensive line piece by piece.  Get it younger.  Value physical lineman in the later rounds, and the speed running game that Ahmad Bradshaw brings.  Spend those draft picks to re-do the defensive front seven.  Get Kenny Phillips back from injury, and get back to the top of the league.

The Giants still have defensive talent, but they don’t have defensive production.  For them, it’s not as simple as drafting some great defensive talents in the top two rounds and expecting to have a great unit by 2011.  This unit doesn’t do anything particularly well, despite it’s wealth of talent on the D-Line.  There are underachievers on it, and it’s not very well coached.

Perhaps the team’s best asset is the fact that Tom Coughlin still has excess political capital left over from the super bowl win and 13-win season.  But this is going to be a lengthy rebuilding process.  The quarterback is in place, obviously.  The offense can be rebuilt on the cheap if the team carefully selects players with the right attitude.

But even with a great coordinator in Dick Lebeau, the Steelers were not guaranteed to be the NFL’s top defense in 2008 when the were a middling 8-8 unit in 2006.  With largely unproven Bill Sheidan calling the shots, the Giants don’t even know if they have the right man in place to turn it around.  If he is, great, less work for the Giants.  But you show me a work averse team, and I’ll show you one that isn’t getting any better.

The Giants need to hire a big time defensive figure to work with the current group, and importantly, to oust the non-contributors in the offseason.  Next year’s Giants defense is likely to regress towards the mean a bit.  But getting towards average can’t be the end game.  It must be the first step for a premier NFC East team.

The Giants flaws will be on display for all to see the rest of this season.  If the Giants are making progress next year, your casual NFL fan won’t be able to see these flaws, and there will be a aura of physicality with the offense, if not greatness.  Jerry Reese needs to show that not only can he win with an Ernie Accorsi-made team, but that he can build a winner in his own right.

NFL

New England at Buffalo Pick:  Patriots.  Player:  Laurence Maroney

Cleveland at Kansas City Pick:  Browns.  Player:  Brady Quinn

Atlanta at New York Jets Pick:  Falcons.  Player:  Tony Gonzalez

Houston at St. Louis Pick:  Texans.  Player:  Matt Schaub

Miami at Tennessee Pick:  Titans.  Player:  Kyle Vanden Bosch

Arizona at Detroit Pick: Cardinals.  Player:  Steve Breaston

Oakland at Denver Pick: Broncos.   Player:  Kyle Orton

Cincinnati at San Diego Pick:  Chargers.  Player:  Philip Rivers

Chicago at Baltimore Pick:  Ravens.  Player: Jarrett Johnson

Tampa Bay at Seattle Pick:  Seattle.  Player: John Carlson

San Francisco at Philadelphia Pick: 49ers.  Player: Frank Gore

Green Bay at Pittsburgh Pick: Packers.  Player:  Aaron Rodgers

Minnesota at Carolina Pick: Vikings.  Player:  Kevin Williams

NY Giants at Washington Pick: Redskins.  Player:  Jason Campbell

The Jaguars’ loss to the Colts does two things: it opens the door for a whole slew of AFC teams to make the postseason, and it keeps us focused on the joint plight of the Colts and Saints, while all this shady stuff goes on in the middle of the NFL pack.

By that, I mean shady stuff such as the Broncos getting a step closer to the postseason after losing to the Colts.  And the Steelers: they’ve lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns in the last five weeks as they’ve dropped all those games.  But they’re still in it.  The Ravens and the Dolphins, who fought in the playoffs last season, are now the co-favorites to go get the final seed.  And the bottom end of the AFC South, left completely for dead just two weeks ago, and hope is very much alive in Houston and Tennessee.

The Houston Texans need to win their final three games playing at St. Louis and at Miami, before playing the Patriots in a game at home that could decide everything.  And not just for the Texans.  A 1-1 slide by the Patriots over the next two weeks could make this game a must-win, or they don’t make the playoffs.  If the Texans win their last two games, they would have the head to head tiebreakers over both New England and Miami, which makes the Jets and the Ravens the biggest threats to them making the postseason at 7-7.

The Tennessee Titans are probably not as likely to make the postseason as the Texans are, but they do have one advantage: if they win out, they’ll out-tiebreak the Texans, and would need only the Jaguars to fall to jump to second in their division.  They need a win against Miami to stay in the hunt this week, and if they get it, they’ll hold that tiebreaker, and the Texans tiebreaker, and…absolutely nothing else.  If the Titans are dead in the water, it’s because they need Jacksonville, Pittburgh, the Jets, and the Ravens (twice) to fall out of their way, and that’s not quite as realistic as say, Houston getting the Titans to fall.

It’s a bit surprising that the Pittsburgh Steelers do not control their own destiny at this point in the season.  But just how bad is it?  The Steelers have a brutal schedule to finish the season, need to win every game to just have a chance, and even if they do that, they still aren’t even likely to finish second in their own division.  It’s already known that the Ravens will have the tiebreaker with the Steelers should they be tied at the end of the year.  This means the Steelers can win each of their next three games by 40 points, including against the Ravens, and all Baltimore has to do is beat patsies such as Chicago and Oakland, and they’ve finished ahead of the Steelers in the playoff race.

On the other hand, while catching Baltimore seems unrealistic, the only chance that Denver could fall out of the playoff race involves the Steelers winning out, as the Steelers hold that tiebreaker.

Let’s look at the NFC race for a second.  The darkest of all horses: the San Francisco 49ers, and the Atlanta Falcons.  The 49ers will play for their season this week in Philadelphia.  If they fall to 6-8, they could be in trouble, although with Detroit and St. Louis to finish, they could be back into it with a lot of help.  But if San Francisco can win this week, they would have to be considered among the favorites to make the postseason.  With the exception of the Falcons, the 49ers hold basically all the relevant tie-breakers.  It’s perhaps a bit premature, but it’s okay to view the 49ers through the lens of a playoff team at this point.  Mike Singletary has done that good a job there.

For Atlanta, they will only remain relevant as long as they can keep winning.  At 6-7, and holding no meaningful tiebreakers outside of against San Francisco, they have to get to 9-7 and get a whole lot of help.  The schedule is certainly favorable: the Jets, the Bills, and the Bucs.  If they can win all of them, they just have to hope that Dallas doesn’t win again, and New York Giants don’t go out and win twice.

A footnote about the Carolina Panthers, who are mathematically alive, but need to win out while Dallas doesn’t win another game, and because Dallas holds the tiebreaker against them, they need the New York Giants to finish with exactly eight wins (including a head to head loss against Carolina), to give them the tiebreaker, along with a whole bunch of other stuff to happen.

Eliminating the darkhorses for a second (and if SF wins this week, they are hardly a darkhorse), the playoff race will be decided between the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New York Giants, best two out of three.  Green Bay figures to be pretty safe: they can fall once, perhaps even twice and still make the playoffs comfortably.  They have their home finale against the Seahawks though, so if they don’t take care of business there, then I’ll have to reconsider this vote of confidence.

Between NFC East Rivals New York and Dallas, the schedule down the stretch is brutal.  Both teams have to play at division rival Washington, who is playing mistake-free power football right now.  New York still has a game with the Carolina Panthers, which figures to close the game between these two foes.  Here’s why I’d bet on the Giants: 1) they hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, and 2) if it comes down to a one game on the final weekend of the season, don’t forget that the Vikings will host the Giants.  Last season, the roles were reversed: the Vikings needed a win to clinch a playoff spot, and the Giants were resting their starters in the second half.  Don’t be shocked to see Vikings coach Brad Childress return the favor if the Vikings have locked up a first round bye while the Saints remain undefeated.  A ninth win for the Giants could decide the 6th seed in the NFC playoffs…unless of course, the 49ers come to crash the party.

…Back to the AFC.

The New York Jets have announced that they are going back to Mark Sanchez at quarterback this week, as they need to win to stay alive against the Falcons, who are in the same boat.  To finish: Indianapolis, and Cincinnati.  9-7 gets the Jets in if and ONLY if the Dolphins drop two out of three to close the season.  10-6 will be enough if the Dolphins don’t win out.  As you can see, the Jets don’t have to do a whole lot to make the playoffs, but it’s not really about them.

The Jacksonville Jaguars fell yesterday, but they hold a lot of tiebreakers, and can make the postseason if they beat the New England Patriots and the Cleveland Browns to close out the year.  They can still clinch second place in their own division by controlling their own destiny.  They need help from the Steelers or the Raiders against the Ravens, and they need help from anyone who is playing Miami because they failed to take care of business themselves, but with just a little bit of help, they can make the postseason just by being the best team they can be down the stretch.

But through all of the AFC Darkhorses (and this is not to slight the Bills, who are right back in the thick of things if they can upset the Patriots this week), the two teams who are best suited to make the postseason in the AFC remain the Baltimore Ravens, and the Miami Dolphins.

If both teams win out…that means the Dolphins would beat the Steelers, and would share a 3-2 record against common opponents.  That means strength of victory would decide the 6th seed in the AFC, and the Dolphins hold a substantial lead over the Ravens there, although there’s certainly enough games left for that to change.

But…wait!  If both teams win out, the Denver Broncos can muddle things up by losing to the Eagles.  They hold the same lead that the Dolphins have over the Ravens in strength of victory.  So the Ravens are probably out at that point.  But if the Broncos fall instead to either the Raiders or the Chiefs at home, they could be the odd team out.  Fun stuff to think about.

In the AFC, it’s the Dolphins and the Broncos who have the spots for the taking, and if one of them stumbles (without counting Broncos-Eagles as a stumble), then the Ravens can go in and clinch the final AFC berth by winning out.  By far, that’s the closest spot right now in a very, very crazy American Football Conference.

Alabama RB Mark Ingram has won the Heisman award for 2009, in a race that was close enough to invite five different players to New York City for consideration of the award.

My take:  Ingram was the least deserving of the five.

The Flint, MI native averaged 6.2 yards per carry in 2009, and ran for 140+ yards in a game 6 times this year.  More impressively, Ingram was only shut down in two games this year: against Arkansas and at Auburn, when he was held at or under 50 yards in both games.

Ingram beat out Toby Gerhart in the voting totals.  Gerhart averaged 5.6 yards per carry, but was the workhorse of the Stanford Cardinal, carrying 311 times, and his worst game of the year came against Wake Forest.  Without looking at advanced metrics, it’s clear that Gerhart played a tougher schedule, showed up every week, and was overall the more valuable runner than Ingram.

Ingram’s selection over Gerhart, however, is defensible if you consider the relative receiving value of each player.  Gerhart was used primarily as a pass protector in Stanford’s schemes, while Ingram was used as an outlet receiver, contributing 30 receptions for 322 yards, more than double what Gerhart contributed.  A receiving yard for a RB tends to be more valuable than a rushing yard under the same circumstances, generally speaking.  You could argue that, independent of the pass protection that Gerhart and Ingram provided for their offense, they offered equivalent values to their team.

Both players finished ahead of Texas QB Colt McCoy and Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh in the voting.  Suh had the best game of his career against Texas in the Big XII championship game, and probably cost Colt McCoy the Heisman in the process.  It’s incredibly difficult to quantify Suh’s contributions on the same scale as the other candidates.  My feeling is that those who voted Suh second or third on their ballots were probably doing so because of biases towards some of the other candidates.

Suh’s dominance in the championship game was unmatched, but it was also a poor representation of who he is on the football field game after game.  The guy is a clearly dominant force out there, but had 8 1-sack games for Nebraska during the regular season until a 4 sack performance against Texas on the national stage.  With that said, I think his case is a lot stronger than Ingram’s was.

Every year, three or four running backs will statistically outperform Ingram’s Heisman winning season.  I threw up his stats above, and while I think they’re very good, it’s easy to see why he won: Ingram was seen as the best player on the best team, and by faulty logical extension, the best player in college football.  I don’t know if Ndamukong Suh is the most dominant player in college football, but I know he was more remarkable than Ingram.  I don’t know if Toby Gerhart is the most dominant player in college football, but it’s not uncommon to think that his running style produced a more remarkable product than Ingram, who ran behind a much bigger OL, and played against a much greater average talent disparity.

And even with McCoy, who had a remarkably indistinguishable season throwing the football, had a remarkably accurate season minus the big plays we had come to expect from the Texas offense, but did it without a running game.  McCoy’s numbers, even on a 13-0 team, would not have competed for the Heisman in any other year, which makes his case indistinguishable from Ingram’s.

To me, that’s the most telling thing.  McCoy was no further from getting jipped from the Heisman than he was last year when he completed 77% of his passes for nearly 9 yards an attempt, and simply lost to a guy with a case every bit as remarkable as him: Sam Bradford.  When you scale the votes to include two additional legitimate candidates, McCoy didn’t come up shorter than he should have really.

I’m disappointed that the award went to neither Gerhart or Suh, but it’s not like the process was flawed, and everyone missed the mark on this one or screwed up.  Ingram only got enough votes to have finished 4th with the exact same resume last year.

This year, he finished first, but the difference between him and Gerhart, and even McCoy in the voting was semantical.  The difference between Ingram finishing 1st and 3rd was just a handful of regional votes heavily in his favor.  Why else would Tim Tebow, with basically the same case as McCoy, and even more historical media love (Tebow got more first place votes than McCoy last year), finish a distant 5th and with only 43 votes?  It’s not that the media is tiring of Tebow, it’s that he lost his SEC regional votes to Ingram, which made all the difference.

Like I pointed out, you could make an argument for Ingram over any of the other candidates, but it only holds up as long as you internalize all of the successes of the Crimson Tide football team into Ingram while discrediting any accomplishments of the rest of the players beyond the statistical side of things.  And I think Gerhart got jobbed with the award.

But, clearly, it’s not due to a lack of respect for what Toby Gerhart accomplished, nor did Colt McCoy or Ndamukong Suh get less pull than they should have (Suh, maybe, but he was more of a cult-hero longshot than a favorite).  Ingram was the favorite to win the whole time, but only in the nominal sense.  If this was the NFL MVP, you would have had a co-MVP split between Ingram and Gerhart.

Because it’s the Heisman, Gerhart gets nothing.  But I still think he had the more remarkable season, and that a handful of voters ruined a really awesome chance to reward someone having a remarkable season, in exchange for the right to give the award to the best player on the best team in the best conference, which is ashame.

For the year, I now sit at 112-67, good for 62.5%, a season high.  Selections for Week 14 are as follows:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland Brady Quinn is starting to get it together for Cleveland, which would have happened back around Halloween had the money-conscious Browns just let it.  Now all that’s left for 1-11 Cleveland is to try to deliver the knockout blow to the defending champs at home this week.  The Steelers are short Hines Ward in this one, but figure to be able to win a shootout with the Browns even if the Steeler D continues to make big mistakes.

New Orleans at Atlanta Atlanta is a mediocre team who might have been able to back into the playoffs in the NFC about three years ago, but it looks like 10 or 11 wins will be a necessity to take an NFC wild card.  The Saints have already clinched the NFC South, and can put Atlanta’s season to rest before they get Matt Ryan back, who is likely to miss a second straight week with a turf toe.  At 13-0, New Orleans can start to think: undefeated.

Detroit at Baltimore It’s hard being the Ravens right now: they’ve fallen to 6-6 by going 3-6 in their last nine games, and Joe Flacco is being asked to save the team’s playoff hopes while playing through the toughest stretch of his career.  If only the opposing defense would oblige…oh look, here come the Lions!  I’ll take the Ravens.

Green Bay at Chicago I don’t pick spreads, but the line on this game is -3 in favor of Green Bay.  That seems too easy.  Rivalry game, throw out the records, blah, blah, blah…the Packers are still one of the two or three fastest defenses in the NFL and Jay Cutler still makes very spotty decisions.  If the Bears can get the Packers’ weakened pass rush blocked, they have a chance.  If they don’t, this could get ugly fast as the Packers roll.

Seattle at Houston I’ll take Houston again for the fourth week in a row.  Maybe I’ll win one.  It’s not like they’ve been stereotypically disappointing or anything, they’re just bad in situations when the game is close.  And bad at keeping the game from being close.  But, you know, they are excellent in the first half.

Denver at Indianapolis This game will feel more like New England-Indianapolis than like a Shanahan-era Broncos beatdown in Indy.  Let’s face it: the Colts winning streak is in serious jeopardy, as this is probably the match-up of the entire week.  Still, I’ll take the Colts to win.

Miami at Jacksonville If Denver/Indy is the game of the week, Miami and Jacksonville will jockey for the 6th playoff seed in this game.  If Jacksonville can put away Miami and move to 8-5, it’s hard to see a scenario where they don’t make the playoff, as they would hold a two game lead over the Dolphins, and would hold the tiebreakers against both the Dolphins, and the Jets, and probably the Steelers as well.  Only the similarly soft-scheduled Ravens could stand in their way.  If the Dolphins win, however, we’re talking about a very wide open field led by Miami.  For a game pick, I really think that the Dolphins will have trouble capitalizing on the Jaguars primary pass defense weaknesses, and I’ll take David Garrard over Chad Henne at this point, as Garrard really deserves another shot at the postseason.

Buffalo at Kansas City I’ve just been informed that they will still play this one.  I have no idea who I can throw my support behind, so I’ll go with the Chiefs because I prefer their cheerleaders to those of the Bills and I’ll take the American team over the Canadian one in most sports.

Cincinnati at Minnesota It’s a game that really doesn’t mean all that much, and isn’t quite as intriguing as Broncos-Colts, but the potential for a thriller is here.  Off a loss, though, I think the Vikings can rebound to win convincingly.  There’s nothing really wrong with the 9-3 Bengals, but these are two very different NFL teams, given the dominance of the Vikings up against the systematic winning of the Bengals.  Minnesota is simply a better team at home, though.

Carolina at New England The “Patriots are doomed” talk arrived just in time for the Panthers and Bills to come in and dispel any chance of the Patriots actually being finished among the league’s elite.  In the era of parity, who knows, maybe the Pats would have already fallen back to the pack.  But this year, they’ve made a mis-step or three, and lost some inexcusable divisional games, but this SBXXXVIII rematch won’t be quite as thrilling.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay I don’t really know what to think about Kellen Clemens starting, as I think Clemens is a better player than Mark Sanchez, but I’ve seen Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer really scale back his offenses before to hide a backup QB.  If they don’t attack the Bucs defense early and often, they’ll leave Josh Freeman in the game long enough to make this a fourth quarter battle.  Because of this, I’m going with the Bucs.

St. Louis at Tennessee One area where Steve Spagnuolo simply hasn’t been able to produce a unit that lives up to expectations is with the pass rush/blitzing packages.  I say this only because in situations where we look for upsets to occur, it’s nice to find one thing that the underdog does very well which will help to keep the game close.  No such luck for the Rams, so it figures to be a comfortable Titans victory.

Washington at Oakland I still don’t bet the spread, but Washington is -1.  Seriously.  I know they haven’t ever looked good in games they are supposed to win, and I know the Redskins at 3 wins are a game behind the Raiders at 4 wins, but Robert Gallery is out, Bruce Gradkowski is going to get killed, and the Raiders won’t be able to run the ball any further than the cloud of dust allows.  On the other hand, DeAngelo Hall returns to the lineup for the Redskins, so you never know.

San Diego at Dallas A match-up that will captivate for about 25 minutes, before it becomes apparent that Dallas shouldn’t be on the same field as the Chargers.  Philip Rivers makes his MVP push in this game.

Philadelphia at NY Giants If the Giants win this game, there will likely be a three way tie atop the NFC East at 8-5 with three weeks to go.  Oh, how I long for such chaos to keep the NFL season entertaining.  Sadly, for me at least, the Eagles are the better football team, much healthier than they’ve been at any point since the beginning of December, and can go out and win the division here.

Arizona at San Francisco A MNF match-up that will captivate absolutely no-one, the Cardinals extract their revenge for an opening week loss at home at the hands of the 49ers.