LiveBall Sports

Hyperbole warning:  Yes.  Yes, it was.

Peyton Manning has done some pretty amazing things in his illustrious career, but the way that the Colts beat the Patriots to remain undefeated at 9-0 and all but end any chance of having to go to New England in January is the greatest single-game accomplishment of his career, bar-none.

Consider: according to the win probability model created by Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats, the Patriots had a 98% probability of victory after Stephen Gostkowski’s FG put them up by 13 points with 4 minutes and 22 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter.

Manning’s most impressive feat of the day was the drive that ensued from that point of near certain doom.  Keep in mind: the Pats didn’t have to keep Manning out of the end zone, they just had to keep everything he threw inside of ten yards and make the tackles in bounds.  In the NFL, an 80 yard TD drive in three minutes or fewer is an astounding feat of precision and accuracy, if the defense doesn’t make a critical breakdown in coverage.  Had Manning taken three minutes to score, the balance of this game would have come down to a completely expected onside kick.  Manning had less than two minutes to get the Colts 80 yards down the field against a defense that had won the battles most of the day, and the Patriots’ biggest mistake was drawing a flag for pass interference on a 15-20 yard pass over the middle.

And yet, Manning’s incomprehensible precision left the Colts with roughly a 14% chance of actually coming away with the win.  It allowed the Colts to kick the ball deep, but even one Patriots first down would have ended the game, and the Pats put up 34 points on the Colts D without a whole lot of effort.

And after 3 Patriots plays gained only 8 yards, leaving Bill Belichick with an obvious punting situation by conservative NFL standards, his ballsy (and correct) move to go for the first down on fourth and two from his own 28 yard line turned a great showdown between the two teams of the decade into an instant classic.

Here’s why Belichick’s decision was so excellent.  With the failed fourth down conversion, the Patriots lost roughly 11% of WP.  Burke’s model suggests that an average team with a 4th and 2 punting situation up by 6 with 2 minutes to go has a 77% chance of victory, by virtue of the Colts preventing a first down.  By choosing to punt, that probability of victory stays at 77%.

If the Patriots had converted for TWO YARDS, which is (conservatively) a two-thirds if not three-quarters chance for the Pats offense, the Patriots win better than 98% of the time.  But by risking a turnover on downs, the Patriots win percentage probability dropped all the way…to 66%.

Momentum aside, the Patriots are still a heavy favorite to win the game, even after giving the Manning the football with thirty yards to go to win the game.  Manning’s greatness was obviously apparent from that point forward: he not only made the Pats D a complete non-factor for the rest of the drive, but he did it while leaving Tom Brady with all of :13 seconds to respond.  In the final 0:30 of this game, Peyton Manning matched his unmatched clock management abilities with his trademark precision accuracy with his game-clinching pass to Reggie Wayne.

The greatest quarterback to ever play the game beat Tom Brady on his home field after every Colts fan in the building had resigned themselves to a possible playoff re-match.  In those final four minutes, only one thing needed to go wrong for the Colts for me to call it a game and change the channel, but Manning simply never missed a single opportunity.

Brady, Belichick, and the rest of the Patriots organization have nothing to be ashamed of in this loss.  They were simply beaten by a more powerful force.  When it came down to a final, last gasp chance for the Colts, Peyton Manning out-quarterbacked Brady, out-managed Belichick, and got an outstanding stand from a defense made up nearly entirely of Bill Polian-picked undrafted free agents.  While it’s often brought up that Manning was the first overall pick, and Tom Brady was a sixth rounder, it’s rarely mentioned that the Patriots are a team of first round picks, while the Colts had to match-up with players who weren’t standouts on their own college teams.

The Colts are a team full of Tom Brady-types, but there’s only one Peyton Manning in this universe, and he wore Colts-blue on Sunday night, delivering a performance that may never be duplicated again in professional football.

Tonight at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Charlie Weis will coach his 60th game as head coach of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  The first 59 have all been high pressure games, or at least the kind that come with the territory at ND.  The 60th game marks the first time that Weis’ job will rely on the outcome of this game.

Not just for Weis, but this appears to be a must win game for the Notre Dame football program.  At some point, you have to wonder: is this all there is?  The Irish lost 15 out of 25 games in 2007 and 2008 because they were a very young team: deep, but young.

Now, it’s 2009, and the offensive line can’t get any more experienced than it currently is.  Despite the maturity, the defense probably can’t get any worse than it has been.  The reason that the Irish need to win–and win big–down the stretch this year is because you can look at Jimmy Clausen, who is probably headed for the NFL draft, and you can look at Golden Tate who might be headed in that direction (but because he’s a two-sport athlete, he’ll likely be back), and the three seniors on the offensive line, and it becomes a legitimate question as to whether or not there’s more rebuilding in the near-term future for the Irish.

One of the biggest reasons that Weis has lasted this long is because the 2006 team was able to make a BCS bowl just a year after the 2005 team did.  Of course, without both Brady Quinn and Jeff Samardzija, it would have been much more obvious to observers that the 2006 team just wasn’t as good as the 2005 team, especially on the defensive end.  The 2006 team was able to make it back to the BCS despite the decline only because they were able to keep all the relevant parts on deck.  That’s not bound to happen for ND this time around.

So the administration in South Bend must be very convinced at the end of this month that their program is “back.”  What other chance does Weis have of coaching this team next year?  It’s likely to be a step or two below the current Notre Dame team, wherever that is.

You have Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly, who is the hottest name in college football, and according to two sources that I would have reason to believe understand his intentions, would only leave Cincinnati for the ND job.  You have an offense that is in desperate need of a scheme transition to protect it’s younger linemen next year.  The argument for keeping Weis as head coach for a sixth season rests on a program that doesn’t want to buyout the remaining 6 years of his contract, and on whatever hope for the future Weis can instil in these final three games.

Charlie Weis still has the time necessary to turn this thing around, but for the first time in his tenure as Irish HC, there’s zero margin for error.  With a win over Pitt, he can earn back some of that margin: 8-4 plus an impressive bowl victory is probably enough to signal significant progress.  But if the Irish go to Pittsburgh and lay an egg, I think it makes the decision on his future that much easier.

LiveBall had the Irish at 6-3 at this point in the season, and projected them to finish at 9-3 and just outside the BCS.  Obviously, this is still a reasonable goal.  The prediction inside the prediction was written as follows:

So on the Irish, I’m going to take the under and predict 9-3, with losses to Michigan, USC, and Boston College.  That won’t get them into the BCS, but a four game winning streak to close out the regular season should give them a nice shot at the Gator Bowl, Cotton Bowl, or Capital One Bowl, and with a strong showing in that game, the Irish should be noticibly improved enough to earn Charlie Weis an extended stay, and a run at the BCS next year with the current group.

That four (now three) game winning streak still should be enough to inspire the neccessary confidence in the Weis Process to continue the operation, but if that process takes another blow tonight–in a game where the Irish are underdogs–it may be lights out on an era in Notre Dame football.

Every team would have wanted Jay Cutler behind center for them, looking at the price he commanded in the offseason.

But now?  Cutler was intercepted 5 times last night in San Francisco, including twice inside the red zone, in a game where his team could have won with only field goals.  The Bears fall to 4-5, and frankly, they’re lucky to be there.

Cutler’s case is an excellent example of the Bears (and to a lesser extent, the Redskins, who ended up being outbid for Cutler) making two critical errors into evaluating a player in another NFL system: the first being that they failed to see a situation when they were very obviously purchasing at a premium, and the second being that both teams made the assumption that their systems were similar, despite the quarterback differences.  What Cutler’s case does not show is a case of a player who regressed from his third to his fourth season.

Jay Cutler can make, and has made every one of the throws that had impressed the Bears enough to toss two first rounders at the prodigy back in April, and in his greatest moment as a Bear, Cutler led his team to a comeback victory over the defending world champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  It would not be an incorrect statement to say that the Bears got a franchise quarterback in Cutler.

But that’s just it.  They acquired someone elses franchise quarterback, and they paid a premium for it.  The assumption that all franchise QBs are the same would be ludicrous.  Cutler is not, and will never be Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Philip Rivers.  He can, however, be competitive with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Donovan McNabb, and Jason Campbell in the NFC.

Marc Bulger was once thought to be a franchise quarterback.  Kurt Warner was one, then he wasn’t, now he is again.  It’s a tag that Jake Delhomme and Daunte Culpepper once wore.  Right now, Brett Favre is offering the Vikings better play than most “franchise” quarterbacks are offering their teams.  Heck, some considered Jon Kitna to be a franchise quarterback.

It’s not at all uncommon for a team to draft a player in the first round, fail to make the playoffs three years in, and start looking in a different direction.  However, when the Broncos did this after hiring Josh McDaniels, Cutler went berserk.  No one, myself included, thought Cutler wouldn’t work out in Denver, but he needed a better defense, some seasoning, and an attitude adjustment.  Cutler posted very impressive 2008 numbers, ranked in the top five in DVOA, and was the least frequently sacked quarterback in the NFL.

But the Broncos new that the quarterback would not be the heart and soul of their new system, and they were willing to consider life without Jay Cutler.  For suitors like the Bears and Redskins, Cutler was viewed as the gunslinger that they couldn’t miss on.  A Brett-Favre clone, if you will.  So, if there is in fact wisdom in crowds, what did the crowds miss on Jay Cutler?

The crowds failed to see that when Cutler is at his worst, his trademark precision and zip on his passes leaves him.  When Cutler posted top five quarterback numbers, it wasn’t because of his daring style as much as it was due to the five guys in front of him keeping him in rhythm and on balance most of the season.  In a system that emphazied pass protection and many receiving options, Cutler thrived.

Neither the Bears, nor the Redskins can handle NFL defensive rushes consistently enough to support a full-version NFL passing game.  Both teams allowed themselves to be deluded by visions of grandeur: at his very best, Cutler can change the dynamic of a game: not only of the way the game is played when he’s on the field, but also when he’s on the sideline.

But the reason Cutler was at his best in Denver more often than not is the same reason he’s been at his worst in Chicago.  In Denver, Cutler was a piece of the machine that Mike Shanahan built over many seasons.  He was the 11th overall pick in 2006.  No one really thinks the Broncos reached on him at that draft position.  But he also joined third round pick from that draft Ryan Harris at RT, a 4th rounder the next year, Chris Kuper at RG, and the 12th overall pick in 2008, Ryan Clady at LT.  Brandon Marshall was a 4th rounder in 2006.  Eddie Royal was the Broncos 2nd rounder in 2008.  Tony Scheffler was the team’s 2nd rounder in 2006.

Cutler was chronologically the first piece to the Broncos offensive puzzle, but the entire thing was put together before Cutler’s third season.  Note that neither the Bears, nor the Redskins felt like they needed to rebuild the offense.  Cutler was not to be the first piece, he was to be the missing piece.  Add a franchise quarterback, and what do you get?

Well, if the Broncos had not added any of the players above, you wouldn’t have gotten very much.  And that’s exactly where the Chicago Bears are right now: where they started.  Kyle Orton wasn’t much of a project to work with, but he also didn’t cost the Bears as much as Cutler cost the Broncos.  The reason the Broncos have been more successful with Orton than the Bears have been with Cutler is because of the picks made after the first round in 2006.

The Bears have added: WR/PR Devin Hester, G Josh Beekman, TE Greg Olsen, OT Chris Williams, RB Matt Forte, and WR Earl Bennett in the same three drafts following the Broncos selection of Cutler.  Put simply, the Bears offense is ineffective not because it was missing a quarterback, but because those players don’t match-up well with any of their Broncos counterparts.

Both the Bears and the Redskins are young offensive teams.  But unlike the Broncos, there isn’t much talent in that youth.  Cutler represents the talent, but if you’re trying to add a piece (both the Bears and the Redskins already had young quarterbacks) to the puzzle, do not pay the “franchise” premium.

That franchise designation isn’t yours, and you can’t take it with you.

Chicago at San Francisco The Bears do not play defense well right now, and they do not play offense well right now.  That’s usually a losing combination, but since they always play special teams well, you just never know.  I predict a lot of defined reads for Alex Smith all night, which will lead to impressive ball distribution and a pair of Frank Gore TDs tonight in a 49ers win.

Atlanta at Carolina Atlanta’s defense has really looked terrible in recent weeks and the Panthers‘ offensive woes are no longer at such a dire level which you might see in Cleveland or Oakland.  Right now, the Panthers can run the ball and ride their defense to a six win season.

Tampa Bay at Miami The Dolphins rushing machine gets it’s chance to show the Bucs how to rebuild in a way that maskes talent deficiencies, and the defense will have no issue battering around Josh Freeman a little bit.

Detroit at Minnesota Coming off of a bye week, this is pretty cruel of the NFL schedule-makers.  I know they didn’t know Brett Favre would be 1) in purple, and 2) dominating the league as such, but the Vikings were one of the opponents Lions fans could get excited about playing.  With a rested Vikings team, this now looks like a massacre.

Jacksonville at New York Jets Really, this game simply comes down to Jacksonville’s ability to avoid the stupid execution errors in the passing game that prevent them from being one of the better offenses in the league.  History sees a trend and so do I:  have to go with the Jets here.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh The last time Pittsburgh got to play an upstart 6-2 division contender in the midst of a dream season, the Washington Redskins got brutally exposed.  Let’s just say I think the Steelers will have this one wrapped up with ten minutes to go in the third quarter.

New Orleans at St. Louis The Rams will win because, because….ah, darn.  Saints take it in a rout.

Buffalo at Tennessee Are the Vince Young-led Titans for real?  Yes, yes they are.  Here comes that reality: Buffalo wins.

Denver at Washington I actually like the Redskins in an upset bid.  I say this knowing the Redskins will have no answer for Elvis Dumerville, but any chance it looked like the Broncos had to win in this game preseason involved the domination of the Redskins defensive line by a much younger, much better Broncos OL.  That line now starts guys like Tyler Polumbus and Russ Hochstein.  If it comes down to the Redskins’ ability to score 17 points against an aging, aggressive Broncos secondary, Santana Moss might earn his paycheck this week.

Kansas City at Oakland The Raiders come off of a bye and get Darren McFadden, Robert Gallery, and Chaz Schilens back.  Those are three of the four best offensive players for the Raiders.  Kansas City can close this talent gap by simply playing as if the opponent were the Raiders.  Given their recent history (1-2 since 2008), they even do that wrong.

Seattle at Arizona It’s hard for any team to handle Arizona if they get down early, but the Seahawks are playing shorthanded every week.  In one of the more somber changing of the guard in recent memory, I like the Cardinals.

Dallas at Green Bay In a fourth quarter shootout, I’ll take the Cowboys to move to 7-2.  Green Bay really should catch a lazy team napping, but I think the Dallas defense has enough to prove that they’ll keep the Packers offense under wraps for the early part of the game.  Then, who knows?

Philadelphia at San Diego San Diego is good enough, in my estimation, to beat two NFC East “powers” in back to back weeks.  It really hasn’t been an impressive run to 5-3, but honestly, did you really think the Broncos were going to win the AFC West?  Really?  Where were you last year?  The Chargers start the ascension to get Norv Turner into the playoffs for a third straight season.

New England at Indianapolis:  Pats.

Baltimore at Cleveland Brady Quinn is free!  And the Cleveland defense should be good enough to keep the Browns in this game.  Ravens by a field goal.  And not a Steve Hauschka FG.  21-18.

If you happen to have slept through the last three weeks, you could be excused for missing just how dominant the Patriots have been since dropping a close one in Denver a month ago.  If you weren’t aware that the 8-0 Colts were one of the best teams in the NFL, I’ve got some stage setting to do.

The Colts and Patriots will play once again this week from Lucas Oil Stadium in a game that NBC is billing as “the rivalry of the decade.” (not coincidently, it’s the Sunday Night game).  It’s not a stretch to make that claim though, since this game features the two quarterbacks, now in their early thirties, who have become the face of the NFL this decade.

And in an act of poetic justice, the Indianapolis Colts could be headed for 16-0, unless the New England Patriots can stop them.

Both of these teams were members of the old AFC East, along with the Miami Dolphins, who are the only other team to go through a regular season undefeated.

More than ever now, the Colts have been a one man team.  Peyton Manning leads the NFL in completion percentage, yards per game, and sack rate.  Think about what those statistics have in common.  Basically nothing.  About the only thing you can say is that they all correlate positively (and perhaps that’s not even true about sack rate).  Coming from someone who already thought Peyton Manning was the best quarterback to ever play: it’s astounding.

Peyton Manning might be having the best quarterback season, ever.

Somehow, though, the Colts are only tied for 5th in the league in points scored, and though they sit comfortably in third place in the all-important point differential, they don’t seem to come off like a team that didn’t lose a game in the first half of the season.  The Patriots on the other hand, are 6-2, a hair away from 5-3.  And while their dominance might have snuck up on you, it’s undeniable.  They are one point ahead of the Colts in point differential, and they fought through some early struggles from their passing game to average better than 28 points per game this year.

Point differential creates an imperfect comparison when you give the Patriots a +59 figure for one game against the Titans:  the Colts were just as dominant in Nashville, but only scored a +22.  The Patriots have won comfortably when they were supposed to.  The last three games, they’ve been largely untouchable.  And that’s what observers have come to expect.

The difference in this game is that the largely untouchable goes up against the team that has yet to be touched.  The AFC is notably strong at the top this year, but if the Patriots can’t handle the Colts, the only games on the schedule that could be considered a challenge would be the two games to immediately follow: @ Baltimore, and @ Houston.  Unlike in past years, there are no playoff contenders lurking on the Colts schedule in December.  If the team–who placed three key defenders on IR last week–is good enough to handle the best the AFC can throw at them, the Colts should be headed for 16-0.

I’ll say this: 2009 is not the year to be that team who heads into the playoffs in the AFC undefeated.  Between the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, and Chargers, there will not be an easy playoff win for any team.  Still, we’re talking about making history, and at the very least, matching the very most impressive thing the Patriots have done this decade: that 16-0 regular season.

I think a lot of really smart people, myself included, feel that the Patriots will win this game.  The NFL has a problem if they do not.  A big problem: the Colts simply cannot be stopped.

Washington at Atlanta Washington’s offense has a really good chance to get healthy this week against a reeling Falcons’ defense, but likewise, Matt Ryan should get healthy against the Redskins’ secondary this week.  Falcons take the game by a ten point margin.

Arizona at Chicago The Bears should win this game, as long as they don’t spend too long trying to run the football against a very good run defense.  The Bears’ pressure schemes can break down Arizona’s protections, and Kurt Warner is going to struggle to produce.

Baltimore at Cincinnati If the Bengals want to prove that they don’t need a TD pass in the final :30 to beat a division opponent, this would be a good week to prove that.  For me, I’ll side with the better team, the Ravens.

Houston at Indianapolis This game is being described as the biggest game in the history of the Houston Texans.  It’s not really, for one thing, it’s not like they become the favorite to win the division even if they win today.  As for winning, even though the Colts secondary is weakened, I don’t think Peyton Manning can be stopped, and certainly not by the Texans.

Kansas City at Jacksonville Um.  Ew.  I’ll say that the Chiefs win.

Miami at New England As the media waits with baited breath as to what new wrinkles the wildcat will bring, the Patriots will employ the tried and true method of lighting up the scoreboard, making a running game irrelevant.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay Josh Freeman makes his Buccaneers debut against an opponent who knows how to make it very, very hard on a rookie: the Packers.

Carolina at New Orleans Peter King wants to know how this game can sport a double digit line after Carolina ran the ball on the Cards last week.  Just watch the Saints go.

Detroit at Seattle At home, the Seahawks should be able to pick up the pieces and beat a Lions team fighting hard to stay relevant.

San Diego at New York Giants By far the most intriguing match-up of the day, the Chargers are a good opponent for the Giants offense to get right against.  Problem is, that you just can’t slow down the now multi-faceted Chargers offense with convention defensive methods.  The Giants will be slow to adapt, and they’ll drop to 5-4.

Tennessee at San Francisco If Alex Smith is for real, this game will be the litmus test.  Five years tell me that the Titans will have a solution for him and Vernon Davis, and offer plenty of opportunities for Vince Young to win a game.

Dallas at Philadelphia Right now, the way the Eagles defense is playing, it’s not realistic that any team would be able to beat them.  The Cowboys are functioning at a high level, but ultimately, are just another team who has little chance to handle the Eagles, especially if Donovan McNabb is on.

Pittsburgh at Denver I predict that Ryan Clark will not play with that sickle-cell trait, but with Troy Polamalu back in the lineup, it won’t matter.  The Steelers are the best team on the field, and will get out of Denver with a victory.

It’s only for the Atlantic division of the ACC, but we’re going to have a front runner at the end of the day today.

It’s the classic offense vs. defense match-up.  With Florida State, you have a quarterback in Christian Ponder who is probably the best quarterback to play at FSU since Chris Weinke won the Heisman.  And at Clemson, the analysts might have been a year premature on them, but they feature one of the best defenses in school history.

But these are two very flawed teams because they sit at a combined 7-7 in FBS play.  They both feature a quality win over a top ten opponent;  FSU crushing BYU when the Cougars were undefeated, and Clemson held off 10th ranked Miami in OT.

When Clemson has struggled this year, it’s been because of the offense.  Their offense combined for 31 total points in back to back losses to TCU and Maryland.  Redshirt Freshman Kyle Parker is completing just a hair over 50% of his passes on the year, but CJ Spiller and Andre Ellington have provided a strong rushing attack in spite of little help with the passing game.

Though it’s been inconsistent, the passing game has been very productive as wins.  While his completion percentage suggests Parker isn’t getting it done, he has thrown for more than 1,400 yards and 10 TDs.  In their conference wins over Wake Forest, Miami, and Boston college, they’ve averaged better than 34 PPG.  Clemson would have to be considered the more balanced team in the match-up.

On the other side, it’s Florida State’s secondary which has left the Seminoles unable to separate from the pack.  Since the whooping of BYU on September 19, Florida State’s largest margin of victory is three points.  And it’s not for lack of scoring: they’ve averaged 38.3 PPG over their last three games, but they are only +1 in scoring margin in the same timeframe.

Clemson might have the best defense that the Seminoles have seen to this point, but I don’t think this game will be settled when FSU has the football.  It’s been too easy for Jimbo Fisher’s offense to move the football to suddenly think we’re looking at a 17-14 game tonight.  The game will probably be decided by how well the Tigers can protect Parker, and then by how well he can deliver the football.

If FSU doesn’t break out of the gates fast in the first quarter, it allows the Clemson running game to be a factor at home, advantage Clemson.  But Florida State’s games all year have been decided by quarterback play.  Parker’s biggest advantage in this game will be the swiss cheese secondary for Florida State, but his biggest adversary might be himself.  Because of FSU’s pace of play, Clemson cannot afford to give away the football, or they’ll be chasing the whole game.

Depending on tonight’s big outcome, we’ll have a clear favorite in the Atlantic division to challenge Georgia Tech for the right to play in a BCS bowl.  The frontrunner will be a flawed team, one way or another, but it could be worse:  it could be Kansas State getting a shot at the conference championship.  The ACC will settle it on the field tonight.

Our current system allows us to recognize ten teams as BCS approved bowl-eligible teams.  These are who those ten teams will be.

One of the biggest decisions the pollsters will have to make this year is whether or not they can or should put two non-BCS (and non-Notre Dame) teams in the BCS bowls.  Neither TCU nor Boise State is likely to lose a game this season (TCU still has to handle Utah at home), and if both teams are ranked in the top 12, they can both get in.  However, there is only one automatic bid.  Right now, TCU leads Boise in the BCS standings, which is almost certain not to change unless TCU falls along the way.

The easiest way to sort through the BCS madness is to start with the near certainties and work down towards the open spots.  So with that in mind, the most certain occurrence at this point is:

Pac-Ten Champion:  Oregon

It’s easiest to project the conferences that do not have a championship game first, since if you win your conference championship, you are in the BCS.  This has crazy ramifications: for example, either Kansas State or Iowa State could line up in the Fiesta Bowl against TCU.  Just sayin’.

For the Ducks, the win over USC paints the first significant brush-stroke in the BCS picture.  They can lose a game–any of their remaining four–and still end up in the Rose Bowl.  Win them all, and they have an outside shot at being in the National Championship, also in Pasadena.  It’s not a better than 50-60% chance though that they won’t trip up along the way though, and even if they don’t, Texas could win out and basically put the Oregon nat’l champs hopes to rest.

SEC Champion:  Florida

Or Alabama.  Or LSU, if they win this week.  It’s a foregone conclusion that the SEC is getting two teams in the BCS: computers and pollsters have a conference-fetish for these guys, and for good reason as well.  Florida’s the easy projection because, heck, they’ve already clinched the SEC East, so they just have to win that last game at the end of the year to be champs.

Alabama is playing for their National Title hopes this week, but not very much else: even if they lose to L.S.U., a loss would (practically) mean they avoid having to play in the disaster that is the S.E.C. championship, and can secure an at large BCS berth by finishing 11-1, while someone gets knocked off in the game between Florida and L.S.U.  Something tells me that Nick Saban doesn’t have his eyes on the Sugar Bowl this year.

Big East Champion:  Cincinnati

Sure, they still have to handle Pitt, but I think all that game will demonstrate is just how large the gap is between Cincinnati and the rest of the Big East, which isn’t even a pushover conference, not like the Big Ten at least.  Cincinnati is just a team that’s bound to go undefeated this year, which unfortunately will only be good enough for No. 3 in the nation.  This is the issue I have with the BCS:  if Texas and Cincinnati both win out, you have Texas playing Alabama/Florida/LSU for the national championship.  If Texas stumbles, and Oregon wins out, Oregon will jump Cinci in the polls.  Computers are not the issue with the BCS.  Polls are.

Cincinnati’s hopes to appear in the Nat’l Championship rely on complete chaos at the top, Texas losing, Oregon losing, and no undefeated SEC teams, which would probably require an LSU win against Alabama, followed by an LSU loss, and an Alabama victory over Florida in the SEC title game.

Got all that?

Big Ten Champion:  Ohio State

The big prediction here: Iowa loses two games, including the Ohio State game, to close out the year.

The just-as-important-secondary prediction: Ohio State beats Michigan in Ann Arbor.

I don’t really know what to think of that.  All season long, I’ve felt Michigan was a better team than Ohio State, and could break the long streak of losses to the Buckeyes at home, but that was before the horrific Illinois loss.  Now, if Ohio State really gets rolling off of Penn State and Iowa, it’s hard to see them falling to Michigan.  You never know though.

If Ohio State does beat Iowa and Penn State, but loses to Michigan, the Big Ten tiebreaker would actually go to Iowa, even if they lose two games, and that’s because OSU would be a three loss team, given the Ohio State game.  So for Iowa to lose the Big Ten title, they’d have to fall to Ohio State AND another team (which probably will happen), and Ohio State would have to win against both Penn State and Michigan.

Or Penn State could win out.  What a crappy conference.

Big XII Champion:  Texas

Texas, clearly, is the class of the Big Twelve.  They have roughly a 70% chance to finish undefeated.  And if they go 12-0 in the regular season, nothing will keep them from a BCS bowl.  Of course, a randomly chosen Big 12 North team is going to get a chance to beat Texas in a single game to go to a BCS bowl.  Ah, the conference nomination system.

Texas, of course, will win this game, but it’s still scary to think that the Big XII might actually send two teams.

ACC Champion:  Georgia Tech

There’s little doubt that if GT wins the ACC Championship game that they’ve basically clinched a berth in, they’ll play in a BCS bowl.  The questions here are: who they will play (I think, Clemson), and whether a two loss Miami or a three loss Florida team can squeak a BCS berth, even though they cant really win the conference.

Which leaves us to sort through the at-larges.

At Large #1:  TCU

It’s going to be tough for TCU, because even a minor slip up against a one-loss Utah team means no BCS bowl.  But if we assume right now that TCU wins out, their berth appears to be automatic.  They are ahead of Boise right now in the polls and most computer averages.  It should be noted that the Broncos’ dominant win over Oregon continues to look better and better every week.  Unfortunately, scheduling really hurts them, because that game was played way too long ago to make big difference in the polls.

At Large #2: Alabama

Another easy one here, as even at two losses, it’s a virtual certainty that a second SEC team will crash the BCS party.  If Alabama loses twice, though, it might not actually be them here.  LSU lurks this week with only one loss, and if they win this week, it drops Alabama into third place in the SEC.  Of course, Florida waits in the SEC Championship, which makes Alabama a pretty safe pick for this spot, on way or another.

At Large #3:  USC

Will there really be two teams in the BCS from the Pac-10?  It’s enough of a statement that USC won’t be playing for the Rose Bowl this year, but I think a lot of people would like to see a USC-Alabama game in the Sugar Bowl.  If they make it through the season at two losses, USC’s resume is as good as any two loss team in the country.  If USC does fall for a third time this season, this spot could go to Notre Dame or Penn State or even Pitt.

At Large #4:  Boise State

My gut feeling says that if the Broncos are undefeated at the end of the year, we will have the unprecedented two non-BCS teams crashing the BCS.  I mean, Boise State may not yet be an elite program, but it’s an excellent program that could compete in major conferences.  They’re not just some team having a nice ten game run.  An undefeated Boise team, even one that doesn’t receive an automatic BCS bid, is still going to get voted in over any two loss team in the nation.  If Miami (Fl) can finish out without a loss, they could jump in here if TCU or Boise stumbles.

LiveBall’s BCS Bowl Projections

Rose Bowl:  Oregon vs. Ohio State

Orange Bowl:  Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati

Sugar Bowl:  Alabama vs. USC

Fiesta Bowl:  Boise State vs. TCU

National Championship:  Texas vs. Florida

The Buffalo Bills made a brash decision to tear up their OL in the offseason, and into the preseason, trading Jason Peters to the Philadelphia Eagles, and cutting loose lineman with large contracts and little production such as Langston Walker and Derrick Dockery.  The Bills repaired their interior OL through free agency and the NFL draft, but any impartial observer could see that the Bills were going to struggle to block anyone all year.

Those observers were not wrong: the Bills have struggled.  But it’s Buffalo that will have the last laugh because whereas they tore up and rebuilt the OL, therefore limiting anything they could accomplish on offense, there are about ten other NFL teams enduring the same OL struggles who haven’t undergone active rebuilding.

The Buffalo Bills sit at an uncompetitive 3-5, which is a better situation than Oakland, Washington, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Seattle, and San Francisco have run into with their OLs, not to mention that Detroit and St. Louis have offered relative improvement on their lines with little positive offensive results.  Then you have the teams that are winning in spite of their OLs, thanks to great defensive play, such as the Eagles, Cardinals, and the Packers.

Almost half the league is struggling with unacceptable OL play, which means that it’s not just the Bills that haven’t put the right five guys on the field.  The only difference is that Buffalo was getting rid of their dead weight in the process, giving them a net win once they weren’t appreciably worse than about half the league up front.

Clearly though, it would be inaccurate to state that teams cannot win in spite of a poor offensive line.  The Packers have manufactured offense in spurts while getting yardage in big chunks.  Ditto the Cardinals, to a lesser degree.  The Eagles have hit on big plays down the field to break opponents.

None of these teams can actually sustain offense though.  That’s a big reason that these teams will be non-factors in the playoffs, should they actually make it.  Great defensive teams don’t blow coverages, and if you can’t run the ball or protect the passer, those defenses will eat your offense for lunch.

But what does this do for the future?  There already has been a run on offensive lineman in the draft in recent years, and we’re at the point where that’s bound to get worse in recent seasons.  The difference, in my opinion, is that teams are finding defensive lineman that are so quick and so disruptive that the gap between a well-coached, over-talented offensive line and a hastily put together mismatch of parts has grown to all time highs.

This means that successful defensive lineman are being found later and later in the draft, and the need for offensive linemen is forcing them to be taken earlier and earlier.  No longer can teams rely on late round draft picks to come in, plug holes, and develop all at the same time.  The players anchoring the OL must be highly specialized talent, talent that is capable of working with veterans and rookies.

On top of that, what worked five years ago might not work anymore.  We’ve reached a point where having a great running game has never been more detached from having a great, power blocking OL.  There’s still big, powerful OLs who can open up huge holes for running backs, but at least 80% of the league is not doing so with consistency.  Teams like Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Tennessee are not running the ball well because of strong OL play, they are running it well because they have quick scatterbacks who know how to set up their blocks.  If Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Chris Johnson were to miss time, those teams would lose whatever investment they had made in their running games.

We’re now at half the league that has significant problems on their OL, whether or not the players around them are obscuring the issues (Green Bay, Minnesota), or not (Washington, Detroit).  Half the teams aren’t going to be able to get franchise lineman in the first two rounds, so we’re looking at a situation where the next few seasons are really going to break down into the haves and have-nots on offense.

Teams that may not be in position to acquire OL help need to seriously consider adding a RB who can make defenses pay for rampant overpursuit errors.  Teams that may need to look at RBs in the draft because their current guys aren’t cutting it include: the Redskins, the Texans, the Chargers, the Falcons, and the Browns.

Could the NFL be headed for a dead-ball era of sorts?  Probably not, because it’s unlikely that the offenses that have been successful for the whole decade will find themselves in trouble anytime soon.  The revelation is that offensive turnover is unlikely to occur very often in the NFL from here on out.  It’s the Buffalo Bills who could be ahead of the curve because they put some of the long term pieces in place, while some NFL franchises are just finding out that they have none.

 

Denver at Baltimore Both teams come off a bye which means that even after this game ends, you’ll have to take what happens there with a grain of salt.  Baltimore benefits more from having the bye: they’ll need Jared Gaither back at LT to have a chance, but I’m going to predict that the Broncos magical start will last for one more week.

Houston at Buffalo This is exactly the kind of game that can make Buffalo’s season with a win, and you just can’t dismiss them easily at home.  Of course, there’s little doubt that Houston is the better team.  It’s not an easy game to pick, but I’ll say that Houston holds on in the fourth quarter.

Cleveland at Chicago The Chicago OL is making a change that LG, with Josh Beekman back in there for the ineffective Frank Omiyale.  The other thing that will ensure the Bears victory: poor Cleveland pass rush.  And blocking.  And quarterback play.

Seattle at Dallas There’s no doubt the Seahawks will be ready for this match-up.  Can they defend what Dallas can do to them?  It really depends on how diverse the Cowboys are in their attack.  Want an educated guess?  Not enough to beat the Seahawks at home.

Miami at NY Jets As much as I admire the way Miami runs their offense, and realize that the Jets defense is a shell of what it was at the beginning of the season, Miami barely held off the Jets last time at home, and now on the road, they don’t really have a great chance to beat New York.

San Francisco at Indianapolis I don’t agree with Reggie Bush that the Saints can or will go undefeated.  But the longer they go without a loss, the less focus will be on the team that actually can: the Colts.

NY Giants at Philadelphia Donovan McNabb is really struggling right now, but the Giants’ secondary is the perfect remedy for him and the rest of the Eagles offense.

St. Louis at Detroit Detroit is bringing their A game with Stafford and Calvin Johnson back in the lineup.  I just happen to think the Rams are a little bit better on both side of the ball.

Oakland at San Diego On opening night, the Raiders held the lead as late in the game at the two minute warning.  With this game in San Diego, the Chargers should lead from the second minute on.

Jacksonville at Tennessee Does Vince Young give the Titans a chance to get their first win.  It will be hard to be less productive than Kerry Collins was, but I think Young plays right into the hands of what the Jaguars want to do defensively.

Minnesota at Green Bay This game really wasn’t all that close the first time these two teams played.  I think you’ll see a better effort from the Packers’ defense, but more of the same from the Packers’ offense.  The Vikings will win a close run.

Carolina at Arizona To say that the Cardinals’ game was the beginning of the end for Jake Delhomme ignores the periodic disaster of a game he struggled with all of last year.  To say that this Cardinals team could spell the end of the Delhomme era, well, that’s just stating the obvious.

Atlanta at New Orleans I’m picking the Saints to stay undefeated along with the Broncos and Colts for one more week.