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Right at this very moment, the scuttlebutt around the NFL is that Texans coach Gary Kubiak is a likely candidate to be fired at the end of the year should his team fail to make the playoffs.  The Texans could be in the midst of throwing away the best chance they have at the playoffs in the history of their franchise, and that’s attributable to consistently poor game and clock management that always seems to costs the Texans at the end of games.

We knew that the Titans would be a much stronger opponent this time around than back in Week 2, but the Texans weren’t all that good at the start of the year.  The Texans have since found a defensive identity, and have continued to develop on offense and special teams under Kubiak.  It’s a team that has a serious chance (still), of finishing up the season with ten wins.

Only one problem:  10-6 and the probable playoff berth that comes with the record now requires the Texans to beat either the Colts or the Patriots.  There’s little doubt this team can handle opponents such as the Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, and Dolphins.  But even with those four consecutive wins, the Texans would only get to 9-7 if they cannot upset the Colts and the Patriots.

This is not to sell the work the Texans have done short.  Losing to Tennessee at home is not an inexcusable loss.  But the team did not underachieve, in fact, that was an excellent football game played between two of the AFC’s better teams right now.  But if the Texans can’t come back to defeat the Colts at home next week, even respecting the fact that the Colts might be the NFL’s best team, it might already be over for Kubiak, who has had so many chances in so many seasons to get over the hump, and remains relegated to 8-8.  Now, with the best team of his career, he may coach for his job on Sunday against the Colts.

Let’s throw out a two-part hypothetical:  the Colts win, and Kubiak is fired at the end of the year.

Since Kubiak’s mentor, Mike Shanahan, is already out there in the head coaching market, Kubiak’s firing would create an interesting dynamic.  Houston’s offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan, who would likely return to the NFL under his father.  That means that if Kubiak fails, he won’t be headed back under Mike Shanahan’s wing.  He will, however, have a chance to land in another head coaching position: possibly Oakland, Buffalo, or Washington.

If Kubiak can’t land another head coaching job, he may very well be forced to the college game.  Around the league, teams who are enjoying success are digging in their heels and offering long term security to their coaches: Childress in Minnesota, Whisenhunt in Arizona, Tomlin in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Mike Smith in Atlanta or Tony Sparano in Miami join that class.  Another long time coach, John Fox, likely won’t be pushed out of Carolina unless Bill Cowher becomes available.  The Jeff Fisher drama appears to have halted given the Titans’ four game winning streak.

Still, Kubiak’s unique offense is one of the most in-demand schemes in the NFL.  If he is thrown back into the NFL coaching pool, it’s realistic to assume that a team that has struggled with offense for years could pick him up and realize that potential, but also that he simply could be bypassed for far bigger names:  Cowher, Lovie, Marriucci, or even Herm Edwards.

And the end result could be one of the more creative and cutting edge NFL offenses gets thrown out of the NFL entirely.  All because of circumstance and just a general lack of demand for an innovative offensive mind, who just can’t seem to manage the game and get over the hump.

If you are looking to find a quick edge at the water cooler, or in your predictions league, take a look at the these NFL standings, sorted by point differential.  It’s a nice way to look at just one computer screen, and instantly see which records look out of place with the teams around them in differential.

Be mindful of the quality of opponents that isn’t accounted for in point differential.  On one end, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay have played a really hard schedule to this point, while New Orleans, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay, and especially the Minnesota Vikings have played a much easier than average schedule to this point.  (Editors Note:  My offseason schedule predictions projected Washington and Philadelphia to play the two easiest schedules in the NFL)  None of those teams will be included in this analysis.

Here’s who point differential sees as overvalued and undervalued:

Overvalued

1.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  The Jaguars have won 3 games in a row to move to 6-4 on the season, but understand that everything the Jaguars do right is done on the margin.  Decisions like Maurice Jones-Drew’s call to take a knee on the one yard line to preserve a chip shot field goal as time expired help the Jaguars win close games, but when you go out and play the Bills, you have to find a way to not trail in the final three minutes of the game.  The Jaguars play poor defense, and aren’t at all explosive on offense.  The result is a lot of tight victories and painful losses.

2.  Carolina Panthers:  The Panthers have won four games this year, but their record and their recent history caused a lot of pundits to make them a trendy pick over the Dolphins, who are a perfectly average team.  The Panthers lost Jordan Gross to season ending injury, and they are not an average team in any way.  At 4-6, they are overvalued by at least a game, although perception on them should normalize after their next defeat of more than 10 points.

3.  Denver Broncos: lest you think this be a list of 1995 NFL expansion teams, the Broncos aren’t really overvalued anymore necessarily, because after their 32-3 thrashing at the hands of the Chargers, they are now -13 for the season in point differential: they simply aren’t a very good team.  They’ll win games in the second half of the year, but at 6-4, they are still overvalued by about two games.

Undervalued

1.  Baltimore Ravens:  At 5-5, the Ravens are about as heavily undervalued as a team can be, and with two games left against the division-rival Steelers, they can be flat out expected to get back into the playoff race at 10 or even 11 wins.  A trip to Lambeau Field might decide whether or not the Ravens can gather enough steam to make the postseason.

2.  New York Jets:  The Jets have looked very, very terrible in the last two months, but very quietly, they are still +24 in point differential on the season.  That’s a good bet that they’ll be able to finish up the season at 3-3.  Also, New York’s next three games are against Carolina, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay, and it’d be hard for them not to grab 2 or 3 wins in that stretch.

3.  San Francisco 49ers:  The 49ers are the most average team in the NFL right now, and they are a pretty good bet to handle Jacksonville, Arizona, and Detroit at home, and could be headed for 8-8.  This might look like a strong finish to the casual observer, but the 49ers are coming off a stretch of tough opponents and figure to up their win percentage over the final third of the season.