LiveBall Sports

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  And to all…I offer picks at a 61% (90-57) rate.

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Green Bay at Detroit With Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson unlikely to play, this one could get ugly fast.  The Lions have earned some good-will with that last second win over Cleveland, which should save them from the Boo Birds for at least ten more days.  In this one, I’ve got the Packers winning big.

Oakland at Dallas The Cowboys, despite largely mediocre play this season, can go to a hard-to-believe 8-3 with a win here.  Tony Romo is playing what I’d describe as “skittish” right now, but unlike Washington, Oakland will break if you commit to the run long enough.  That’s the only reason I don’t think the Cowboys are in for much of a battle.  It will be close for a half.

New York Giants at Denver With four consecutive losses, Denver is squarely on the ropes at home this week, and I like the Giants with a chance here to deliver the knockout blow.  I worry about that defense with Antonio Pierce out, but so far, the Knowshon Moreno pick in the middle of the first round looks like a big-time reach.  The Broncos offense simply can’t exploit the weaknesses on the Giants D, and their secondary isn’t going to suddenly get better against a diverse passing attack like New York’s.

Sunday’s Slate

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Atlanta is a close win over Washington away from being oh-for in the middle third of the season, but Tampa is exactly the team that the Falcons can get healthy against in a hurry.  Even with Josh Freeman providing ability from the quarterback position, Tampa still fell by 31 points to New Orleans.  Atlanta isn’t as good as New Orleans, but the margin of victory here should be in the double-digits.

Miami at Buffalo If Buffalo is going to continue to start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, voluntarily, then they will keep falling to superior opponents such as the Dolphins, or anyone else, really.

Washington at Philadelphia Philly beat down the Redskins so badly in Washington back in week seven that it’s hard to see this game, now in Philadelphia, being any better.  But the Redskins are a much different team than the one that lost to the Eagles in October.  This time, while the Eagles should win, the Redskins will be better prepared, particularly on defense.

Seattle at St. Louis Marc Bulger is out of this one, and his Rams career might be over.  The Seahawks have really not played that terrible this year, but it’s beginning to look a lot like last season for them.  Matt Hasselbeck is in the lineup, so they’ll get the nod, but this pick is more of an aversion of trying to pin down the specific conditions of the game than anything.

Carolina at New York Jets The Panthers’ dominant rushing attack has returned to form, and it still hasn’t helped Jake Delhomme out any.  With no semblance of a passing game to speak of, and a defense that simply isn’t as good as last year, the rushing attack gets marginalized.  On the Jets end, they’ll find themselves in a weird situation when they are actually the most talented team on the field.  Hard to predict how they will react to that, hopefully, they won’t stink up the joint.

Cleveland at Cincinnati This is the upset pick of the week.  Cincinnati lost at Oakland because they let the Raiders hang around, and hang around until the Raiders only needed one score in the final two minutes to tie the game.  Best case scenario, they were going to be taken to overtime by the Raiders, in a game which they led 14-0.  I don’t think they will ever have a lead in this one the way the offense is playing, and I’m going to take the Browns to get their second win.  Say what you want about Cleveland, but they are better than Oakland.

Indianapolis at Houston The Texans need to win 5 out of their final 6 games to make the post-season for the first time in franchise history, and while this game is by far the hardest remaining on the schedule (this assumes the Pats have nothing to play for in Week 17), I’d be much more optimistic about the Texans chances if they actually win the first game in this stretch.  The last time to win five consecutive games in order to make a wild card was the 2005 Redskins.  The 2008 Eagles had it just as difficult, but they slipped up in Washington in Week 16, and needed a whole lot of help to overcome that.  For the Colts, this is just another game on the way to 16-0.  For the Texans, this might be their season.  I don’t really feel like this is much of an upset, but I’m going with Houston, with their backs against the wall.

Kansas City at San Diego The Chargers are the top five team no one ever talks about.  Don’t look now, but their record is just as good as the Pats’ record (7-3), and the Bengals’ record (7-3), and they haven’t lost in over a month.  If the Colts, Saints, Vikings, and Pats are the four best teams in the NFL, are the Chargers not the next-best team?

Jacksonville at San Francisco These teams aren’t valued very differently right now among the pundits and fans alike, but the 49ers have proven to be the better of the two through 10 games.  Their record doesn’t show it right now, but that is why they play the games.  And on the field, the 49ers will win at home by at least a TD.

Chicago at Minnesota Earlier this week, I pointed out that the Vikings never really seem to play a quality opponent.  Consider:  they still have the Bears on the schedule this year.  Twice.  Only match-ups with the Cardinals and Bengals remain between the Vikings and a 15 and 1 record.  The Saints, undefeated, might be playing for the first overall seed this week against the Pats.

Arizona at Tennessee It’s very difficult to value these two opponents, with what the Titans starting 0-6 and looking the part, followed by a post-bye 4-0, and also looking the part.  If we accept the later stretch as the true value of the team, then the Titans are an easy pick.  But those six games still happened, and well, we’ve seen the Cardinals tear apart stronger secondaries than this one.  I just don’t really have a good sense of this one.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore It appears Ben Roethlisberger is slated to play in this one, but Troy Polamalu is not, and the Steelers are a completely different defense when #43 isn’t in the mix.  His absence makes the Ravens the better team on the field, and since it’s their field, it makes them a fairly safe pick.

Monday’s Throwdown

New England at New Orleans If you don’t think that New Orleans is going to take any personal pride in taking the Patriots to the woodshed to this week, I’d like to turn your attention to a game that happened in 2007 when Gregg Williams was coaching the Redskins defense.  52-7, with 14 points added in the non-competitive fourth quarter.  The Saints will be winning in the fourth quarter, and on behalf of all non-Belichick NFL coaches, we hope the safety blitzes don’t cease.  Sean Payton may call off the dogs, but the Saints’ defense is going all out for 60 minutes, regardless of the score.

I haven’t had an opportunity to write anything about the epic Lions-Browns game, which was–strangely–epic for all the right reasons.  From a web-traffic perspective, it makes more sense to write about teams in the playoff push, as those articles would generate more hits.  But I feel like I should say at least something about the game because: 1) I haven’t written about either the Browns or the Lions since the beginning of October, and 2) the game itself deserves a minor mention at the very least.

There’s a strong American sports bias towards making the playoffs, and while I’m certainly guilty of this at times, I absolutely detest the fact that a game like Patriots-Jets (one great team vs. a average to below average team) will get national publicity and billing while a game between two close teams like Lions-Browns will be a punchline.  I was thrilled to find out that Jim Nantz and Phil Simms were shipped out to Foxborough for the weekend, because it made avoiding them quite easy.  And Lions and Browns quickly turned into my number two most watched early game because the match-up was intriguing from the start.

I’m not being sarcastic there.  The outcome affects the playoff landscape in no way, but heck, who cares?  I can print out a copy of the NFL standings in the morning and see the playoff landscape.  I spent three hours on my Sunday watching Redskins-Cowboys and Lions-Browns.  And I couldn’t have been happier (until the Cowboys scored, at least).  The Browns and the Lions are both depressingly bad, but neither displays the futility that you’ll see in a Raiders game, or a Buccaneers game, or a Bills game.

And more importantly, both teams left Ford Field at the end of the day much better than they came in.

From the Browns perspective, playing the Lions defense solved a lot of long term woes on the offensive end, and this game came a week after their defense showed a lot of life against the Ravens offense.  The team is 1-9, but that’s really not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.  This is a team that has, in consecutive weeks, watched both units of their team throw up great results, and now they can spend the next six weeks of the season building on what they have accomplished.

For Brady Quinn, he really needed to enjoy a day that reminded a lot of people of his successful college days because he had just played horrendously against the Ravens.  Yes, a lot of his success should be credited to a Detroit defense that never got any pressure on him, and his two TD bombs were as much due to having his receivers run right through the Detroit secondary uncovered as anything he accomplished, but Quinn’s first four starts this year came against the Ravens (twice), the Broncos (remember when they were good?), and the Vikings.  Maybe all Quinn needed was to not be completely over-matched going into the game.  If this is the case, next week’s game against the Bengals will be very interesting, especially with the recent struggles of the Bengals’ offense.

But this article isn’t about either Quinn, or the Browns.  It’s about Matt Stafford and the Lions.  After the draft, I pegged Josh Freeman as the best quarterback in the class, Stafford as the one most likely to be successful (team-wise), and Sanchez the one most likely to bust.  I don’t see any reason why that prediction should be revised at this point, as the Jets are just now finding out that their $28 million man can’t throw to the left side of the field, and the Bucs are getting better-than-expected production from Freeman, and still sit at 1-9.  But for Stafford, a player who has serious accuracy issues and just struggled through a 4 INT game after missing 3 games with injury, his comeback win for the Lions might have just been a career saver.

That’s not hyperbole.  Stafford was a marginal prospect coming out of Georgia who came with plenty of physical tools and had a steep development curve.  While the Jets are probably (but not certainly, see: Young, Vince) screwed with Sanchez, and the Bucs might reach the realm of mediocre with Freeman, the risk the Lions put into Matt Stafford has the ability to pay off big-time if they develop him properly.  Now lets be clear:  I would never spend the first overall pick on a quarterback who lacks natural accuracy, especially since he got a contract valued at $80 million for six years.  But I’m not so naive to think that spotty accuracy can be a deal-breaker if a guy can get through his progression quickly, move well in the pocket, and deliver passes with rocket-arm velocity on them.  Stafford already has some great pieces around him in WR Calvin Johnson, TE Brandon Pettigrew, and RB Kevin Smith.  The offensive line has done a good job functionally in the passing game, although they haven’t given Smith anywhere to go this year.  Get a brusing guard and a project LT in there and you have something.

All of Detroit’s long term issues are on the defensive end.  And Quinn was exposing that talent deficiency all day, as many a passer has done before him.  The larger point is this: the Lions could have easily crawled into a hole after Quinn hit Josh Cribbs to go up 24-3.  But when Stafford was willing to throw them back into the game, they responded with the requisite big plays and defensive stands necessary to make his efforts worth it.  And while every Lions game the rest of the season figures to be a shootout, and they don’t have much of a chance to make a difference on Thanksgiving against the Packers, it’s time to finally point out that the Lions are a team on the rise.

This is not something we could have done when the Lions hired Jim Schwartz, or drafted Matthew Stafford, or barely held off the Redskins in Week 3 to win their first game in nearly two years.  At this point, they may sit at 2-8, but they have a legit chance at the 4 or 5 wins that many observers thought they would get to.  I think I’m ready to declare the dark days of Detroit football officially over.

So what’s the timetable?  2010?  In the NFC North, I think it’s a reasonable expectation that the Lions can compete for the division title next season.  The biggest issue would be importing that talent on defense, but I’m not even all that worried.  I think if the Lions end up starting next year with that big play offense that Matt Millen lusted for all those seasons, and compliment it with a diverse ground game, I think you can compete in the NFC without having a competent defense.  The best teams in the conference, the Saints and the Vikings, are strong on both sides of the ball.  Everyone else this year is doing it on one side of the ball, and not the other.

The Lions are not that far from being one of those “other” teams.

One of the main things I have found with regards to contract values, especially in football, is that the teams who write the contracts prefer to value players with long term upside…even if they are trying to fill an immediate term need.  As the thought process goes, you may not be able to predict what your organizational strategy will be four years down the road, but if you pay a premium for a younger player with upside, you’re less likely to be stuck with dead-weight on the back end.

This is probably fallacious.  If you are making an investment to address an immediate team need or concern, the process is inherently short-sighted.  This need could be addressed through a player development channel, but the organization remains willing to throw cash at the problem so they don’t have to wait for the solution.  This is a fine approach when used sparingly, but don’t be fooled:  what happens on the back end of the deal could very well be someone elses’ mess.  Acquisitions need to be graded on how they affect the present value of the franchise, not by which move looks less-bad four years down the road.

With respect to this year’s baseball hot stove, I’m proposing the research question: when does it make sense for a team to buy now, and overpay later?  If there’s a hypothetical 35 year old centerfielder who is on the verge of needing to move to a corner outfield position to be viable defensively, under what conditions should be loosely required to out-bid the market for the services of said player.  If he’s in demand, the player can turn his present value into a long term deal.  Teams know that that the same player in the corner outfield will result in an overpaid asset for 3 years or so, and then of course there is all the sunk cost decisions that will go into that at the time.  The proper move may very well be to end up eating the cash on the back end.

Each team has a strict payroll limit that ownership will hold them to, but football franchises have figured out that by promising money in future seasons (via the P5 signing bonus), they can get a year or two of the player-asset to fill a very specific role, and eat the consequences later.  Baseball franchises appear much slower to figure out the same thing, partially because some of the contract value can be recouped in football, while in baseball, the entire remaining contract is a sunk cost.

This analysis will specifically address baseball players in the current labor market who are clearly past their prime.  It is well known that all players listed below will not be as valuable in four years as they are right now, and also that it would be in the interest of all franchises to sign older players to shorter-term deals.  But taken from the small market franchise perspective, the only way you can beat a team with more cash to spend out for a specific free agent without settling is to get creative with the contract.  Offering 4 year-$28 million deal is more lucrative to a 35 year old position players than getting a 2 year, $18 million dollar contract, even though the per-year value of the contract is greater in the second offer.  That’s what a small market team would have to do to outbid a large market team.

But why not let those big-spenders set the market, and then settle for the comparable scraps?  Well, then you can end up with Jose Guillen or Matt Morris, and you’re not saving much money in the process.  At that point, everyone would agree the small market team is better off going strictly through player development channels.

Type A Free Agents will be ignored in this analysis.  And to reiterate: the long term value of the player is being ignored here, as we’re trying to determine who has enough value in 2010 and 2011 to justify some dead money in future seasons.

Jim Thome, DH Even for an American League team with an opening at DH, it’d be impossible to justify more than a single year on Jim Thome.  He has no value as a baserunner, a fielder, or a singles hitter at this point: he’s all on base ability, and left-handed power.  In the NL, that’s barely worth a roster spot.  In the AL, there won’t be very much of a market for that, but you could still get a 7-inning a game middle of the order lineup out of him.  No reason to overpay.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH This is an interesting one, because Vlad is a 34 year old who has the body of a 39 year old, sort of like Thome.  He’s not completely valueless outside of his bat, as he can still run from point A to point B before the sun goes down, and you could stick him in the outfield 20 times a season, and have additional right-handed power in the middle of the order.  But no, he’s not the kind of player who you would want in the lineup this year badly enough to pay him through 2012, and it’s mostly due to his free swinging style going out of style.  He figures to be a run generator for the next two or three years or so, but since this isn’t about his future value, his present value isn’t worth a premium.

Hideki Matsui, DH Might be a moot point if Matsui goes back to Japan, but if I’m a team who has no real middle of the order threat, Matsui is the kind of player you could justify a three or four year deal on to squeeze him in under a tight budget.  Something like 4/$28MM.  I don’t view him as a huge attrition risk, really, just a guy who happened to hit lefty at the new Yankee Stadium for a season where he didn’t really play the field.  Matsui does hit to all fields, so if he stays in the US in 2010, he’s a very productive player, if not a productive outfielder.

Jason Giambi, 1B/DH Not much difference between Giambi and Thome at this point except that the team that invests in Thome knows precisely what they are getting, and can plan for that.  Giambi’s bat might end up being a complete wash-out at this point, given his declining power numbers.  On the other hand, he’s not the horrendous baserunner Thome is, and he still knows which hand the glove goes on.  Still, you wouldn’t offer anything more than one year for any reason.

Carlos Delgado, 1B Offensively, there’s nothing really desirable left here.  Defensively, there never really was much desirable to begin with, but what he had is still there.  Right now, Delgado is right at replacement level, which means that you could justify a contract only if the farm system is just bare with any sort of bat work.  No multi-year deals: if you can’t develop a replacement level first baseman but every five years, you might be the Kansas City Royals.  Still, if you must, there’s some standard upside here, which makes him a better fit than, say, Ross Gload.

Gary Sheffield, RF/DH Nope.  The Mets benefitted from offering him the minimum, and the Tigers would have probably been better off with him than without him, but he’s 41 years old now, and doesn’t have much value left.  Even a two year deal would be pretty preposterous at this point.

Brian Giles, RF His power has diminished much in recent years, but a lot of that is because of where he was playing his home games.  To me, Giles is the kind of the inspired gamble that could really make a team this year.  He really crashed hard, and unexpectedly, last season.  Full disclosure here: I’ve always liked Giles, but despite a crash in UZR and power totals, in my mind, he’s more likely to see a rebound here than further attrition, and most teams should have room in their budgets to fit him in.

Mike Cameron, CF I almost had to disqualify Cameron because he seems certain to land a two or three year deal, as he can still get it done defensively.  He’s worth up to a five year deal in my opinion because for at least one more year, he’s instant runs both produced and saved.  He probably won’t play past age-40 though, so in return for a team offering him financial security for the rest of his career, you can save that money on the back end, and he’s only going to cost $5/6 MM per year.

Mark DeRosa, 3B/OF/2B DeRosa is another good investment, although he’s older than you think (he’s 35).  He’s precisely the kind of player who can help a small market team “win now” and he’s probably worth a lot of money up front.  Listing him as a second baseman at this point is pretty charitable; he can stand there, if you’d like.  His best defensive position is in right field, and though he’s more costly than say, Giles, you can justify three or fours years on a contract because he’s a safe bet for this year if not the future.

Adam Kennedy, IF Kennedy was an May waiver claim for the A’s and was the best hitter on the team for about half a season.  That’s not a good reason to give the guy a multiple year deal.  He could be worth up to three or four million dollars this season, in total, but there’s no power here, and the defense is not what it used to be.

Nomar Garciaparra, IF Don’t remember why I included him.

Jamey Carroll, 2B I say no, just because all of his value is in defense and baserunning, and while that contributes to wins all the same, when you are talking about guys who can get you over the top, Jamey Carroll just doesn’t do it for me.  Don’t get me wrong: since 2006, Fangraphs estimates his value at close to $25 million dollars.  On a one year deal, I’d offer him as much as $5 million to be my starting second baseman/backup shortstop.  But I don’t think I would overbid that with a multi-year deal for Jamey Carroll.

Miguel Tejada, SS/3B Yes.  He has to be viewed as a third baseman in the free agent market, but when you consider that this move will put him behind the Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre’s of the world, guys who are all-world defenders at third base, Tejada could be just as good as these guys, possibly for longer, and at a fraction of the cost.  One of my biggest problems with positional baselines is it screws up the projection of players like Tejada who do the late-career SS to 3B move, but Tejada is underrated as a defender, and while his move would hurt his offensive value according to positional baselines, he doesn’t actually lose that value.  Put simply, he will outplay his contract this next season, and probably at least one season after that.  A six year deal would not be crazy, unless it pushes above $48MM.

Alex Cora, SS Cora has a run of the mill glove, and is the last person on this list I would want on a long term deal.  He doesn’t offer anything with the bat except the ability to hit from both sides.

Adam Everett, SS On the other hand, Everett offers rare glove work, but he has also become a progressively more useful offensive player.  When you put him up against the baseline of a league average player, the increased plate appearances make his aggregate offensive values look like he’s reached career low levels, but in reality, he’s now playing more than he ever has since leaving Houston.  Most teams don’t have a shortstop as strong as Everett, and I would be surprised if he didn’t get a multi-year deal this Hot Stove season.

It really depends on the free agent.  Deferring payroll to future seasons can be a useful tool for building a team in excess of what your teams’ payroll situation and farm system can accomplish.  The key is to find a player with a relatively low attrition rate and some pop left in the bat, and offer the right guy a contract that is over the market value, but does not cost as much on a per year basis as some of the larger market teams are willing to pay.  This payroll could come back to bite in the future, but only if the team is unsuccessful at winning now.

If your team can land the right free agent piece, it helps to discount future dollars and allows for systematic organizational improvement.

Right at this very moment, the scuttlebutt around the NFL is that Texans coach Gary Kubiak is a likely candidate to be fired at the end of the year should his team fail to make the playoffs.  The Texans could be in the midst of throwing away the best chance they have at the playoffs in the history of their franchise, and that’s attributable to consistently poor game and clock management that always seems to costs the Texans at the end of games.

We knew that the Titans would be a much stronger opponent this time around than back in Week 2, but the Texans weren’t all that good at the start of the year.  The Texans have since found a defensive identity, and have continued to develop on offense and special teams under Kubiak.  It’s a team that has a serious chance (still), of finishing up the season with ten wins.

Only one problem:  10-6 and the probable playoff berth that comes with the record now requires the Texans to beat either the Colts or the Patriots.  There’s little doubt this team can handle opponents such as the Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, and Dolphins.  But even with those four consecutive wins, the Texans would only get to 9-7 if they cannot upset the Colts and the Patriots.

This is not to sell the work the Texans have done short.  Losing to Tennessee at home is not an inexcusable loss.  But the team did not underachieve, in fact, that was an excellent football game played between two of the AFC’s better teams right now.  But if the Texans can’t come back to defeat the Colts at home next week, even respecting the fact that the Colts might be the NFL’s best team, it might already be over for Kubiak, who has had so many chances in so many seasons to get over the hump, and remains relegated to 8-8.  Now, with the best team of his career, he may coach for his job on Sunday against the Colts.

Let’s throw out a two-part hypothetical:  the Colts win, and Kubiak is fired at the end of the year.

Since Kubiak’s mentor, Mike Shanahan, is already out there in the head coaching market, Kubiak’s firing would create an interesting dynamic.  Houston’s offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan, who would likely return to the NFL under his father.  That means that if Kubiak fails, he won’t be headed back under Mike Shanahan’s wing.  He will, however, have a chance to land in another head coaching position: possibly Oakland, Buffalo, or Washington.

If Kubiak can’t land another head coaching job, he may very well be forced to the college game.  Around the league, teams who are enjoying success are digging in their heels and offering long term security to their coaches: Childress in Minnesota, Whisenhunt in Arizona, Tomlin in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Mike Smith in Atlanta or Tony Sparano in Miami join that class.  Another long time coach, John Fox, likely won’t be pushed out of Carolina unless Bill Cowher becomes available.  The Jeff Fisher drama appears to have halted given the Titans’ four game winning streak.

Still, Kubiak’s unique offense is one of the most in-demand schemes in the NFL.  If he is thrown back into the NFL coaching pool, it’s realistic to assume that a team that has struggled with offense for years could pick him up and realize that potential, but also that he simply could be bypassed for far bigger names:  Cowher, Lovie, Marriucci, or even Herm Edwards.

And the end result could be one of the more creative and cutting edge NFL offenses gets thrown out of the NFL entirely.  All because of circumstance and just a general lack of demand for an innovative offensive mind, who just can’t seem to manage the game and get over the hump.

If you are looking to find a quick edge at the water cooler, or in your predictions league, take a look at the these NFL standings, sorted by point differential.  It’s a nice way to look at just one computer screen, and instantly see which records look out of place with the teams around them in differential.

Be mindful of the quality of opponents that isn’t accounted for in point differential.  On one end, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay have played a really hard schedule to this point, while New Orleans, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay, and especially the Minnesota Vikings have played a much easier than average schedule to this point.  (Editors Note:  My offseason schedule predictions projected Washington and Philadelphia to play the two easiest schedules in the NFL)  None of those teams will be included in this analysis.

Here’s who point differential sees as overvalued and undervalued:

Overvalued

1.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  The Jaguars have won 3 games in a row to move to 6-4 on the season, but understand that everything the Jaguars do right is done on the margin.  Decisions like Maurice Jones-Drew’s call to take a knee on the one yard line to preserve a chip shot field goal as time expired help the Jaguars win close games, but when you go out and play the Bills, you have to find a way to not trail in the final three minutes of the game.  The Jaguars play poor defense, and aren’t at all explosive on offense.  The result is a lot of tight victories and painful losses.

2.  Carolina Panthers:  The Panthers have won four games this year, but their record and their recent history caused a lot of pundits to make them a trendy pick over the Dolphins, who are a perfectly average team.  The Panthers lost Jordan Gross to season ending injury, and they are not an average team in any way.  At 4-6, they are overvalued by at least a game, although perception on them should normalize after their next defeat of more than 10 points.

3.  Denver Broncos: lest you think this be a list of 1995 NFL expansion teams, the Broncos aren’t really overvalued anymore necessarily, because after their 32-3 thrashing at the hands of the Chargers, they are now -13 for the season in point differential: they simply aren’t a very good team.  They’ll win games in the second half of the year, but at 6-4, they are still overvalued by about two games.

Undervalued

1.  Baltimore Ravens:  At 5-5, the Ravens are about as heavily undervalued as a team can be, and with two games left against the division-rival Steelers, they can be flat out expected to get back into the playoff race at 10 or even 11 wins.  A trip to Lambeau Field might decide whether or not the Ravens can gather enough steam to make the postseason.

2.  New York Jets:  The Jets have looked very, very terrible in the last two months, but very quietly, they are still +24 in point differential on the season.  That’s a good bet that they’ll be able to finish up the season at 3-3.  Also, New York’s next three games are against Carolina, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay, and it’d be hard for them not to grab 2 or 3 wins in that stretch.

3.  San Francisco 49ers:  The 49ers are the most average team in the NFL right now, and they are a pretty good bet to handle Jacksonville, Arizona, and Detroit at home, and could be headed for 8-8.  This might look like a strong finish to the casual observer, but the 49ers are coming off a stretch of tough opponents and figure to up their win percentage over the final third of the season.

Current record through Thursday night’s game comes out to: 80-52 (60.6%)

Indianapolis at Baltimore One of the biggest difference between this year’s Ravens team and last years team is the inability of the Ravens’ defense to establish it’s dominance on defense against opponents who can attack them multiple ways.  Their corners have underachieved, and Ed Reed is banged up and having a down year.  The Ravens will have no solution this week against Peyton Manning and the Colts, though you’ll definately see them win some battles.

Washington at Dallas Tony Romo has never really done much in this rivalry, as his best game against the Redskins came in 2007 when the Redskins defense was missing superstar safety Sean Taylor to a knee injury (Taylor, tragically, would never play again).  The Cowboys are in big trouble if Romo doesn’t have a big game against a struggling Redskins secondary who has soured on it’s most proven corner, Carlos Rogers.   I’m thinking the Cowboys will be victorious, but there could be long-term repercussions if they fail.

Cleveland at Detroit I’m picking the Detroit Lions because it’s hard to imagine any team being worse on offense than the Browns, but the Lions defense could end up as the goat of the game if they allow Brady Quinn to set his feet and throw accurate passes, it won’t be hard to establish an offensive rhythm that can systematically tear down a injured, not-good-to-begin-with Lions secondary, even for the Browns’ “weapons.”

San Francisco at Green Bay This is a pick that I’m swaying on, because one team (SF) rushes the passer really well, and the other team (GB) can’t protect the passer.  However, with Alex Smith starting for the Niners, you have to wonder just how poorly the Packers defense would need to play to let Frank Gore be the difference in this game.  I have to side with the Packers.

Buffalo at Jacksonville Dick Jauron, out as head coach of the Bills.  Perry Fewell, in.  Trent Edwards, out as quarterback of the Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick, in.  Maurice Jones-Drew will really make a big difference in this one as the Jags try to seperate themselves from the pack in the AFC.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Here’s the only team in the NFL who won’t actually be able to get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers should win by at least three touchdowns.

Seattle at Minnesota Minnesota really seems to play a bad team every week.  I don’t know if that means anything come playoff time, as they could/should secure a first round bye, pending how well they perform in divisional play against the Bears.  I don’t know if I’d like this team at home against, say, the Cardinals in the postseason.  However, first things first, the Vikings will handle the Seahawks at home fairly easily.

Atlanta at New York Giants With Matt Ryan continuing to struggle through his sophomore season with his accuracy and decision making, and Michael Turner slated to miss this game, the Giants figure to snap their four game losing streak at home.  With a little help from the Redskins this week, they will once again be the favorite in the NFC East.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay I think this week will end the Saints run at an undefeated season.  They are a very good football team, but unlike the Colts, they really don’t have a legitimate shot at 19-0 and a super bowl championship.  The Bucs are at home, and I think Josh Freeman has what it takes to knock the Saints from the ranks of the undefeated.

Arizona at St. Louis I’ll go with another upset this week, and say that the Rams will beat the Cards at home by hitting Kurt Warner early and often.  Stephen Jackson is having a great year, and quietly, the OL of the Rams is greatly improved.

San Diego at Denver It’s hard for me to see Denver fixing everything that is wrong with their team in one-week, especially in a week where Kyle Orton wasn’t able to practice.  This team has been largely exposed in the last few weeks, and they still have a lot of building to do before the become one of the leagues’ elite.  The good news is that: if they can beat the Chargers this game, they might get some meaningful playoff experience for their young talent, even if they are an afterthought once they are there.

New York Jets at New England Part of me wants to think that the Jets are getting a really raw deal here before this game, as they already beat the Patriots once this year, and that they are being treated like a homecoming opponent for the Patriots in the media.  Then I see that the Jets are 1-5 since week four, and probably should be treated like such a team.

Cincinnati at Oakland One team that will never need to worry about being unfairly underrated is the Oakland Raiders, as the Cincinnati Bengals have shown that they are a multi-faceted football team who wins games above all.

Philadelphia at Chicago These are two franchises who are on a losing-type slide that threatens their entire collective season, and it’s not hard to predict based on history that Donovan McNabb and the Eagles will answer the bell, while Jay Cutler and the Bears will watch from home this January.

Tennessee at Houston If Houston can end the Titans three game winning streak, and put to rest a miracle playoff run from this Titans team (and who knows what to expect if they move to 4-6), it’s probably safe to conclude that the Texans are for real.  The key will be taking away Vince Young.  Yep, that’s correct: even with Chris Johnson averaging better that 6 YPC, it’s Young that can’t have a good day if the Texans expect to be legitimate.  Young is on film now, and oh by the way, the Texans have had two weeks to look at his film.  If coach Gary Kubiak has any value as a head coach, his team will exploit some of Young’s undisciplined tendencies and win big.

Watching the UConn Huskies put the emphatic exclamation point on the Charlie Weis-era at Notre Dame really helped to take this point and put it in perspective: coaches who kick the field goal on 4th and goal from inside the oppoenents 5 yard line really put their teams in a bind, and yet, this is standard football operating procedure.

This applies to professional football as well, and is not simply just a college thing.

Watching Weis this year really hammers the point home, for me at least.  Weis, and most other coaches, really structure their coaching style as if they have one of the best defenses at the level, but this is hardly a universal given, and in fact, I think a lot of the coaches who make these baffling decisions actually have below average defense.

The downside of a failed fourth down conversion is pretty obvious: a highly successful drive often comes away with no points.  I think the biggest problem is that the commentators and fans and coaches all put this premium on coming away with something in the points department as the name of the game on offense.  In many ways, this is not an incorrect line of thinking, as offenses will always be judged by the point total they produce.

But the problem is that, very often, a points-centric approach to decision making often comes at the expense of the alternative: a wins-centric approach.  “Going for the points” is never a bad decision from a points-centric approach.  Kicking that field goal gives you the same three points whether you kick it from the 5 or from the 35.  Going for the touchdown on fourth offers about the same amount of expected point value, but really increases the variance at which those points get scored.  From the points-centric line of thinking, point production is better when fewer risks are taken inside the payoff zone.

But the ND-UConn game offers up a good reason to suggest that only a loser would take the “safe” route there.  From the two yard line in the third quarter up by four, Notre Dame passed up another shot at the end zone for a chip shot field goal.  That decision gave them an instant three points.  It also took the ball out of the shadow of the UConn goalline and forced the Irish to kick off to the Huskies.  Connecticut’s Jordan Todman found a seam on the kickoff return and took it back 96 yards to the end zone to tie the game up.

Here’s the bigger picture:  if Notre Dame had gone for it on fourth down, and gotten into the end zone (the best case scenario from Weis’ perspective), it does nothing to stop Todman’s return and the corresponding “momentum” swing at Notre Dame stadium for those who believe in such concepts.  But in that case, it would have made the net point trade-off equal to zero.

Coaches, on the whole, do not seem to realize the negative side of “taking the points.”  You’re not just taking points, you’re also giving the opponent field position.  That field position can easily turn itself into points for the opposition, especially in the worst case scenario offered up by Todman.  It’s not like coaches disagree about the value of field position, as even the most aggressive of coaches prefers to punt in opponent territory rather than risk a really long missed field goal.  That’s the precise opposite of “taking the points”, but I’d say more often than not, it’s the right move from the wins-centric perspective.

Weis made similar mistakes earlier this year against Michigan (ND loss) and against Purdue (ND win), when he judged the value of three points to be worth letting the other team out of it’s own end zone free.  Now, if it’s a game where the coach expects scoring opportunities to be limited, going for the points might help you win a 9-6 game and would be a good decision if the gamble about the value of the score pays off.  Weis’ decisions cannot really claim that as an excuse.  Notre Dame is a team that lives off of what it’s offense can do, and has to overcome the consistent failures of the defense.

It’s a classic case of a guy who simply isn’t doing what it takes to win.  In the absence of a great defensive unit, settling for three is nearly always a losing play.  When Notre Dame’s only chance to win involves having the offense score touchdowns more often than not, there’s really no excuse to cost them a shot at the end zone inside the five yard line.  Weis’ teams struggles in the red zone should have made the need to go for it really very clear.

His tenure ends with him not doing what I feel is neccesary for a team on the margins to win more close games than they lose.  There are plenty of other coaches out there who would fall into the same “taking the points” trap, but the great programs and franchises need to find the coaches who understand the difference between mindless gambling and winning football.  Then, maybe, there can be a return to glory.

This article was inspired by a poorly sourced ESPN assertion:  that with their win on Friday, Oklahoma State (9-2) becomes the front runner for the final “at-large” BCS bid.

Two weeks ago, I looked at the way the BCS bowls appeared to be shaping up.  It’s clear that since I wrote that article, USC has fallen out of the running for a BCS Bowl, and Notre Dame and Iowa are no longer serious threats (Penn State never was).  It sure looks like the loser of the Pitt-Cincinnati game will qualify for an at large bid, although being a two loss Big East team could turn off some voters.  But for the last spot, it sure seems like Boise State should be well out in front of that race.  Behind Oklahoma State, who really, deserves to be ranked based on a 9-2 record against a somewhat difficult schedule, but hardly to be sniffing a BCS bowl bid, you’re talking about three loss teams like Stanford, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, or Miami getting that last spot.

But why?  The rules of the BCS dictate that in a year where a mid-major goes undefeated, the series must accept at least the highest rated mid-major if they are in the top twelve.  TCU not only qualifies, but would be a legitimate top five team in any season.  And their dominance leaves Boise without the protection of that automatic bid.  Instead of deciding which bowl is going to swallow their pride and accept the Broncos, we’re now looking for excuses to deny them an invite.

If you are going to let the BCS Standings declare the teams that get to play for the national championship, flawed as the system is, how can you look at the gap between Boise State and OSU in the ratings and say that the Cowboys deserve that last spot?  Pundits and sportswriters alike are absolutely trashing the whole process that gives us the BCS, and we’re going to defend the systems’ right to pick the two teams who will play in the Championship…until we might have to let two mid-majors in.  Then it’s time to start looking to the two loss “powerhouses.”

There’s no rule to protect the second best mid-major because it shouldn’t be necesscary.  TCU should be in the BCS conversation no matter where their conference affiliation is.  While Boise’s road has been significantly less impressive, it’s not like there is any question that they are a top ten team.  What the heck is an “At-Large” bid anyway?  Just call it what it is: a Big Ten/ACC/Big XII elective.

Joe Posnanski with this Greinke-bit in his coronation column in the K.C. Star this morning:

The Cy Young Award press tour was not something he wanted to do. He didn’t even answer the Cy Young call because he did not recognize the number on his cell phone.

That comes just hours after Sam Mellinger (also of the Star) relays this bit to us via Twitter:

Zack on whether he’s thought about Cy Young since season ended: “Not really. I’ve been playing this World of Warcraft game.”

The primary question of this blog–if there was one–for about two months was, “seriously, how could you not love Zack Greinke?”  Well, the BBWAA spoke, and color me impressed and pleasantly surprised.  They do love Zack Greinke.

And by record margins as well.  25/28 first place votes for a guy who won only 16 games?  I’d have to think that even if CC Sabathia had won 20 games, Greinke would still have had enough pull to win.

The only question that Zack has to answer next season would be: is the best yet to come?

Hey, you never know.  I’m not going to bet on it, but I’m even less inclined to bet against it.

Following the Titans 0-6 start, incumbent starting Quarterback Kerry Collins posted numbers that looked like the following:

• 54.8% completion percentage, 5 TDs, 8 INTs, 5.4 Y/A, 62.0 passer rating, 3.0% sack rate

It was widely reported that Jeff Fisher never felt that Collins was the problem with the Titan offense, but you can look at those numbers and instantly realize that your team is getting nothing out of the passing game.  The Titans needed to make some sort of correction at the bye, and though Fisher would have prefered to give Collins another week or two, he eventually decided to let Vince Young save face and start the resurrection of his career in Week 8.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about this, is that it has turned out pretty alright:

• 65.7% completion percentage, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.6 Y/A, 85.9 passer rating, 1.5% sack rate

It’s worth pointing out that Young has been heavily protected by Mike Heimerdinger’s scheme, and a 2 TD to 2 INT rate is very inconclusive as far as long-term results go.  Furthermore, now that teams have three games of tape on him, it’s going to be tough for the Titans to completely smoke and mirrors their way through the rest of the season.

But it’s worth pointing out that the numbers suggest that Young has been anything but indecisive this season.  His sack rate is half of what Kerry Collins’ was, and even though Tennessee still has a great pass protecting offensive line, Kerry Collins is one of the better players in the history of the NFL at getting the ball out of his hands.  He’s also one of the lowest efficiency passers to last as long as he has, because he throws the ball away with such frequency.  Young may be in a simplified, conservative offense, but he’s been highly effective through three games however you spin it.

And as for the TD/INT rate, when you consider the kind of year that all-world RB Chris Johnson is having (still above 6 YPC), it’s amazing that Collins wasn’t able to accomplish anything more than he did.  Young’s 1:1 rate is just fine because Johnson can be the main weapon in the offense.  While you don’t draft a player third overall to be a complementary part in your offense, Young is finally succeeding because he’s not being asked to do too much, he’s being asked to give the Titans the production that Kerry Collins wasn’t.

At the end of this season, Tennessee either has to get behind Young, or get him out of there.  Because of the contributions of Johnson, the Titans have options at the quarterback position, and if these three games are any indication, Vince Young might just have a future yet in the Music City.  You get the idea that the Titans would love that.