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I think every analyst is in agreement that this year’s battle between USC and Notre Dame is the equivalent of the super bowl for Notre Dame this year, which means it’s pretty much like every other USC game in the Weis era.  Yet, here we are talking about the historical significance of Saturday’s showdown in South Bend.  This leaves the big question: what’s different this year?

Would a win make Notre Dame a national championship threat?  Not really.  Is this a more critical game for USC than the Ohio State game from four weeks ago, or even last year’s Notre Dame game?  I don’t see it.  Is this a game that Charlie Weis needs to win to keep his job at Notre Dame?  Couldn’t hurt.  Is Pete Carroll’s legacy at USC tarnished at all if he falls to 7-2 against the Irish?  Not in the slightest.

Historical significance?  Perhaps overstating it, but this is still a big, big game.

Here’s the difference: this year, it’s every bit as critical for USC as it is for Notre Dame.  That’s not usually the case, at least in recent years.  The last two seasons, USC has cruised through this match-up with a sense of urgency completely unmatched by Notre Dame.  In 2005, the teams were pretty evenly matched, and USC won a classic.  In 2006, USC was the best they’ve been in recent years, and Notre Dame couldn’t match up, which was surprising.  Since then, it’s been a largely irrelevant game, didn’t garner a whole lot of national publicity (again, relatively speaking), and was never a competitive game.

It’s different this year because USC knows that the last two years, they were able to win on talent and preparation alone.  This year, that should get them roughly to halftime.  They also have to outscheme the Irish, protect the football, and play stronger in the fourth quarter than their opponents.  You know, the fourth quarter that’s been largely irrelevant.

Notre Dame has had major issues with run defense this year, and it’s a completely different defense when playing with a lead than playing from behind.  I’ll say this: if Notre Dame at any point leads this game by double digits, they’ll win the game.  I just don’t think that they’ll be able to have a convincing double-digit lead if they don’t have it by their third possession.  If the key for USC is to win the fourth quarter, then Notre Dame needs to win the first quarter so that the second half becomes an uphill climb for the Trojans instead of a level playing field.

Let’s be clear: on a level, neutral playing field, USC still wins this game 9 out of 10 times, no matter how improved Notre Dame is.  But no rule says that the Irish have to play USC fairly.  They can come out, rattle Matt Barkley early, score points as quickly as possible, and make USC throw the ball to come back.  That’s how modern football teams use homefield advantage.  It’s also not what the Irish have done over the last two and a half years at home.

Do we have reason to believe that Notre Dame could look like the team of four years ago, and beat down on a Trojan team that might be weaker than it’s been since 2002?  It’s reasonable to expect some aspects of dominance that have been dormant for years to appear this week for the Irish.  Either way, they’ll have to hope from some help from the past to break the seven game USC winning streak this Saturday.

Playoff baseball has never been known for it’s relative disparity, but it’s somewhat fitting that every team that made it to the LCS had it’s playoff ticket pretty much punched by the end of July.

And for the teams who were in September playoff races?  0-3 for the Red Sox, the Twins and the Rockies.

But it was the most intriguing playoff matchup where the disparity was the most obvious: the Dodgers and the Cardinals.  The Cardinals actually entered the series as a slight favorite in the eyes of vegas, but after the Dodgers managed to beat Chris Carpenter in Game 1, and did it convincingly, there was little doubt who the better team was.

At it’s very core, playoff baseball comes down to pitching matchups.  Not just pitching matchups; the quality of a team’s defense and hitting plays a major role in the story of every World Champion.  But for the teams who get eliminated short of the point that they expected to get to, you can usually boil the series down to the single game where a team entered with a pitching advantage, and left with a loss.  When the Cardinals sent Carpenter and Adam Wainwright to the mound in back to back games and lost them both, even their most die-hard fans realized that they weren’t going to be able to send it back.

For the Minnesota Twins, they understood they were overmatched in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium.  But they were a team that had to feel like they could rebound the following game with Nick Blackburn pitching against the streaky A.J. Burnett.  And when the game came down to the ninth inning with Joe Nathan on the mound, it was a virtual certainty that the series would shift to Minneapolis in a 1-1 tie.  Only, the middle of the Yankee lineup is unlike anything Nathan gets to face in the AL Central.  In just under two innings of work, the Bronx Bombers ousted Nathan, and saddled him and his team with a crushing defeat.

The Colorado Rockies did win the pitching matchup they needed to, when Aaron Cook and staff narrowly outdueled Cole Hamels and staff.  But they also knew they needed to rely on 27 year old Jason Hammel to win against J.A. Happ.  But Hammel, like Happ, could only last 3 innings and change, and that’s an advantage to the better team: the Phillies.  It didn’t help matters that the Phillies teed off on Rockies closer Huston Street in consecutive games while Phillies closer Brad Lidge matched wits with his best stuff.

But it’s the California Angels of Los Angeles of Anaheim that have the best one-two punch right now.  Going into the series, I would have said that Boston held a pitching advantage, and consequently a small advantage in the series.  But with John Lackey and Jered Weaver at their best right now, I don’t think anyone is going to beat the Angels the rest of the year.  Well, maybe in a game.  But not in a series.

The one flaw in the Angels’ armour appears to be the bullpen, but even that appears to be simply better right now than it was in the regular season.  There’s no questioning the talent of the lineup, which scored more runs since the all-star break than it did prior to it.

I think Cliff Lee will drive the Phillies past the Dodgers in the NLCS, but I don’t think they’ll be a match for the Angels, who are the most dangerous team in baseball right now, and consequently, my (belated) World Series pick.

Miami Dolphins Team President Bill Parcells is famous for remarking in a press conference that, “you are what your record says you are.”  While that may hold some truth, the Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins have both won 40% of their games, and are not anywhere near each other in terms of accomplishment.

Expectations going into the season were similar for both these franchises: while the Dolphins were an 11-5 playoff team expected to regress towards the mean a little bit, while the 8-8 Redskins reloaded heavily in the offseason, and were looking for a little bit of a boost from the 48 million dollar man, Albert Haynesworth.

Whereas the Washington Redskins have made it to 2-3 because of a complete failure to develop their offense, the Miami Dolphins are there because of some excellent work they have done with theirs.

The development of Miami’s wildcat from a gimmick offensive wrinkle into a massive, playbook eating versatile scheme didn’t just happen between week two and week three of last year.  It’s been happening this whole time.  The Redskins are notable for head coach Jim Zorn’s refusal to run anything resembling the wildcat, but where these two offenses are linked at the hip is in their remarkably 20th century ball-on-the-ground, grind it out style.  Both teams keep scoring under control by working tirelessly to control the time of possession.  When Washington was successful in the first half of last year, they were a dominant T.O.P. team, if not a big point scoring team.

The Miami Dolphins are aware of their flaws against the top AFC teams, talent-wise.  It needed to be no more evident than when they were being thrashed at the hands of the Ravens in the playoffs.  Those were not two evenly matched teams.  The Dolphins aren’t measureably better this year, in fact, they’re without their MVP from last season, Chad Pennington.  But what they have focused on is the development of their competitive advantage.  They beat teams by limiting mistakes, and controlling the clock to an unfathomable degree.  Every snap is about high efficiency, clock-control football, with execution in the red zone super-emphasized.  The Dolphins get all their playmakers involved: Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Anthony Fasano.  And execution to the littlest detail is stressed.

The Redskins are similar in a lot of ways.  They focus on getting everyone involved.  They really try to take it to you once they get a lead.  They want to be a mistake-limiting football team.  All those principles got them off to a strong start in the first two games, probably ahead of where Miami is.

What the Redskins have found out in the hardest way possible is that while you can continually stress good decisions and limiting mistakes, you can’t eliminate mistakes.  You have to be able to take advantage of all those things you can control, because interceptions and fumbles will occur in a football game.  They are occuring at a much higher rate for the Dolphins this year than they were last year as well.

But the Redskins don’t stress the details like Miami does.  Miami will lose some games when they turn the ball over: they just don’t have the talent to overcome big deficits.  The Redskins on the other hand probably do have the talent.  But the execution is shoddy, and it has been for years.  By not stressing the small things, the Redskins are willing to accept the macro results on a large scale, which means if they get behind big, they lose, even though they have the talent to make a comeback, they just make too many mistakes.

The Dolphins have taken a historically boring offensive style, and turned it into an intriguing, exciting, quick strike, rush-heavy attack.  And it’s won them two games against a very tough schedule to open the season.  The Redskins, well, against the endless string of zero win opponents they have opened the season against, they’ve just been boring.

Cincinnati at Balitmore Two three and one teams will play for the right to lead the NFC North through the month of October today.  It’s the Bengals though who have been doing it with defense, and the Ravens have been doing it with offense, relatively speaking.  If things hold steady, I like the Bengals to get a big road win, although this game is basically a toss up, and the Ravens are the team with more upside.

Cleveland at Buffalo With the way the Bills have been playing, it would be hard not to think the Browns will get their first win today.

Washington at Carolina One of the worst teams in football to date has been the Carolina Panthers.  It’s been embarassing to watch this team fall all over itself in the past two weeks.  The Redskins have not been quite as bad, but you’d have to think that if the Panthers can correct just a few things after the bye, they’re a good bet to win.

Pittsburgh at Detroit Daunte Culpepper is under center for the Lions today which makes them a much better team overall.  But the Steelers offense will not struggle with the likes of the Lions and Culpepper has no chance to keep up the pace.

Dallas at Kansas City The Chiefs sit at 0-4 right now, and the turnaround is not coming just yet.  Not this week, at least.  The Cowboys know how critical it is to get to 3-2 in the NFC East, and against the Chiefs, they’ll be able to take care of business.

Oakland at NY Giants It would be easy to predict that the Raiders will show a sign of life, but that the Giants will still win the game.  I’m predicting you’ll see no such thing from the Raiders.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia You already know that Tampa Bay is winless on the year, but have you heard that the Andy Reid’s Eagles have never lost a game coming off of a bye week?  Take the Eagles.

Minnesota at St. Louis Another matchup between a winless team and an undefeated team?  St. Louis will not break their winless streak in this one, and they will not break Minnesota‘s bid at an undefeated season.

Atlanta at San Francisco This one pits two teams who are probably a bit overrated, but certainly among the best teams in their respective divisions to this point, against each other.  The 49ers have earned their 3-1 start, but they are just the kind of team that the Falcons have preyed on the last two seasons.

Houston at Arizona I still don’t buy the Texans, but I hardly think that a bye week is going to fix what has been ailing the Cardinals.  The Texans offense has been playing as good as it ever has, and with the Cards sputtering, I’ll give the nod to the Texans.

New England at Denver We’ll let the legend of Josh McDaniels grow for one more week before we get to chip away at his legacy.  Denver is in store for another late season collapse, but the Broncos will beat the Patriots at home today.

Jacksonville at Seattle Seattle’s offensive line has been perhaps the most disappointing unit in the NFL to date.  Their secondary is a close second.  This situation isn’t as bad as last year with the receivers actually being both healthy and productive, but the Jacksonville Jaguars need not to set the world on fire in order to move to 3-2 after today.

Indianapolis at Tennessee This is an easy pick.  I don’t know what 0-4 Tennessee Titan team I can expect to see, but I know that no matter what version of them shows up this week, the Colts will beat the living daylights out of them.

NY Jets at Miami A grind-em-out ball control offense vs. a true rookie quarterback?  Throw out those records, and give me the Miami Dolphins at home.

Thursday’s UFL debut that featured the Las Vegas Locos and the California Redwoods didn’t arrive with much fanfare–or many fans, for that matter–but the teams showed that the principle that the UFL is built on: that there is a surplus of talent in professional football, held true.

Over the next six weeks or so, the biggest thing the UFL will have to fight against is the perception that they’ve simply re-instated NFL Europe here in the states.  One of the biggest advantages they have is that NFL’s usage of NFL Europe kept any true future talent from playing in the developmental league for fear that they might lose a player to injury.  Marketing the product of football without being able to rely on star power is impossible.

So in that respect, the UFL was smart to hire four coaches with NFL-name recognition, because it not only makes the games more interesting from the fan perspective, but makes it more appealing as a developmental league for players who aren’t rostered by NFL teams.

The league formerly known as the AFL (arena football league) tried to bill itself as “the league which created Kurt Warner”, which plays off the concept of star power.  But the league eventually went under because it failed to hold that marketshare over the years.  The AFL was a much different game, and really needed to take advantage of the differences, not to let itself become a gimmick or a punchline.

For the UFL, the legitimacy that they have on launch is more important than having a stadium full of fans in the first week.  Because the overall product feels a lot like NFL Europe.  But it doesn’t have to be joined at the hip with the NFL in such a manner, and certainly can distance itself from everything that is wrong with the NFL without becoming the XFL.

One of the things that the UFL seems to have done right is that it’s being used by NFL veterans who are currently unwanted by the 32 teams to show that they still have something to offer for a team during a playoff run.  If you play a season in the spring, one of the biggest disadvantages about your league is that players who perform well enough to get a look at the next level simply get one of 80 roster spots, which puts you just a rung below Jessey Holley on the NFL totem pole.  By having a full season, during football season, that ends in time for the home stretch of the NFL season, the UFL has really positioned itself to become the first true developmental league for the NFL: it’s doing what all of the NFL affiliates have failed at in the past.

Sure, a league where JP Losman to David Kircus is a top passing tandem leaves a lot to be desired for fans looking to get the best product for their dollar, but with NFL ticket prices at all time highs, I’m not going to sell the UFL’s ability to establish itself as just that, short.

Finally, you’ve got four pro-style offenses in the UFL, and one of the main things I think college football has suffered from in the past few seasons is that the proliferation of the spread creates a product that a lot of fans feel a disconnect to.  The spread may very well be an optimal form of offense for college teams, but if you can choose to watch Denny Green and Jim Haslett duke it out on a Thursday night, or you can watch Nevada-New Mexico, well, that’s a battle the UFL can win.  And more importantly, it’s the kind of competition the UFL needs to win to be viable in the long term.

So while I was hardly impressed by any of the football on the field, the fact that it was even being played represents a major step in the development of a minor league in football, and I’m in full support of the UFL’s attempt to find it’s niche in the football marketplace.

Considering that the New York Jets had been sniffing around every wide receiver who was rumored to be available, it’s not shocking that the Browns and Jets got something done after Cleveland fell to 0-4, and now three games out of second place in this division.  They’re not making that up, and the only way they would have a shot to catch the Steelers is if they beat them twice head to head…which also isn’t happening.

So Braylon Edwards is heading to the big apple after all, although, he won’t be wearing Big Blue, instead, he’ll be wearing gang green.  In return, the Browns receive two players, and two draft picks.

One of the players the Browns get in the deal is WR Chansi Stucky, formerly of Clemson.  The big idea here is that the Browns are downgrading at wide receiver in the short term because they have little left to play for.  But looking at advanced statistics for Stuckey, his 2008 season compares favorably to the best seasons that Braylon Edwards has every had.  Is Chansi Stuckey no. 1 receiver material?  It’s certainly debatable, but I think I could make a good case for him as a low end no. 1 in the future.

More importantly, Stuckey should benefit from moving out of the Jets offense, even if he has to end up in the punchless Cleveland offense.  With Mark Sanchez the focal point of Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, Stuckey had become an unproductive afterthought in the Jets’ pro-style west coast offense.  Stuckey’s complete lack of productivity warranted a change of scenery, and he should offer a nice target for Browns QB to throw to.

But this post is about Edwards, so it’s time to look at what the Jets are getting in the trade.  They are not getting one of the best receivers in football.  But schematically, they are getting a 1a type to pair with Jericho Cotchery, and a guy who gives Mark Sanchez a second threat on the outside.  For a team that already has one of the better offensive lines in football, and a reliable running game, the question is not about how Edwards’ changes the Jets’ offense, but if he is the missing piece.

I don’t think he is.

I never really thought the Jets’ receivers were an issue.  Jericho Cotchery had been one of the best receivers in football over the first four games.  His role probably won’t change.  While Edwards brings another vertical threat to the Jets, the problem is that it’s another move that seems to be about the present while the quarterback is someone who will win more games in the future than he will now.  You also have a diminishing returns factor to the amount of weapons you can give Sanchez.  Chansi Stuckey wasn’t struggling because he sucks, he was struggling because the only plays that were going to him were the ‘B’ list plays.  He doesn’t have Brett Favre slinging it around anymore where all he had to do was get open to get the football.

At the price the Jets are paying, it’s tough to not like the gamble.  But I just don’t think it’s a gamble that will pay off for the Jets in any noticible manner.

Three weeks ago, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported that, if Mike Shanahan was head coach of the Broncos into the offseason, he would have released wide receiver Brandon Marshall, as an alternative to addressing his contract situation.  That’s a bigger bombshell than trading Jay Cutler was.  An outright release of a pro bowl wide receiver who isn’t costing the team anything is basically unheard of.

Of course, I can make a strong argument that based on the evidence leading up to this offseason, Marshall hadn’t really even earned his roster spot, much less a pro bowl roster spot.  Consider:

• In 2007, Brandon Marshall caught 60% of passes that targeted him for 7.79 YPA
• In 2008, Brandon Marshall caught 57% of passes that targeted him for 6.99 YPA
• Between those two seasons, Brandon Marshall was targeted on (hide the children) Three hundred and fifty one passes.
• There are quarterbacks who started 14 game seasons who didn’t throw that many passes total.
• Brandon Marshall missed the first game of 2008 with a suspension.

So what does this mean?  It means that the Broncos offense, which was productive, was performing at suboptimal levels, and it was doing so because a mediocre player like Brandon Marshall was the focal point of the passing game.  Now, add to that the fact that the player in question has a reputation as a completely juvenile prick, and well, your team would be better off without the pain in the ass than with it.

So reportedly, it was Mike Shanahan’s call to dump Marshall, and it’s because of the regime change that Marshall is still a Denver Bronco today.  Marshall still isn’t pleased with his contract situation, and he probably shouldn’t be considering the role he has held in the past.  Of course, Josh McDaniels came in and demoted Brandon to the 3rd WR, which 1) helped to discipline a young man whose career was heading in a questionable direction, and 2) it’s put him in a position where he can succeed in helping the team win games, receiving yardage be damned.

And with one catch and open field run, Marshall arguably made the leap from unpolished, overused talent to productive wide receiver in the NFL.  He might still be only the No. 2 WR on the Broncos, but he’s always been a dynamic deep threat.  He’s just starting to turn those big plays off of intermediate passes.  Marshall should be very thankful to McDaniels for getting his career on track, and particularly apologetic for his prior transgressions.  If Mike Shanahan had been around to ship Marshall on his way, it could have been a career altering move and Marshall, who would have made more than he’s making this year, would never have seen the big bucks.  With his team 4-0 this year, and as the star of the Dallas game, Marshall is on the verge of a big payday, that is as much to the credit of those around him (Pat Bowlen and Josh McDaniels in particular), as it is to the refining of his skills.

But don’t be fooled: Marshall is a much better player now than he has been in past years and past offenses, and though he might still be a meathead, the self improvement is primarily a product of hard work and a great opportunity.

I know Aaron Rodgers was not (primarily) at fault for the second half collapse of the Packers last year, and I’m perfectly aware that Rodgers is getting absolutely no help from his pass protection unit this year.  Those are things that don’t (or at least shouldn’t) reflect on the quality of a quaterback’s play.  Rodgers, or anyone in his position, would struggle behind the Green Bay offensive line.  That’s a given.

But with all the aggregate evidence since week one of last year, I think I’m ready to conclude that Aaron Rodgers is not a top quarterback.  At least not yet.

Rodgers is a very fundamentally sound player who feels pressure and generally throws accurate passes.  Those are all traits of a good quarterback.  He seems to anticipate routes decently and has a quick release.  But Aaron Rodgers is a big time ball holder.  And in that case, he reminds me a lot of Marc Bulger.

Marc Bulger was a pro-bowler once upon a time.  Actually, twice: in 2003 and 2006, and he was pretty darn good in between as well.  In some respects, and in the opinion of many, he was a system guy on an extended stay after Mike Martz was dismissed.  Bulger is a well coached player who knows everyone’s role on the field and is a steady player who rarely has a personal missed assignment.  But Bulger was a ball holder, and though those players can have great years, having a high sack rate puts your career on a razors thin edge between success and failure.  Bulger was successful in this league for a long time, and he was a successful quarterback when he was roughly two standard deviations above the mean in completion percentage.  When he was doing that, setbacks in the offense doesn’t much matter.

But over the last two seasons and a handful of games, Bulger has become a 56% passer, and the ball holding tendencies he has always had is now killing drives.  Bulger played to the quality of his offense, and as his teams became under talented, Bulger moved from asset to liability.

And so it is for Aaron Rodgers.  In the same offense that Brett Favre once called the most talented team he ever had been around, Rogers completed 63.6% of his passes and posted a 93.8 passer rating.  But the continued emergence of Greg Jennings and stability of Donald Driver had a lot to do with that.  Those players are a constant on this team, and Rogers has really good numbers again this year.  But the rest of the receivers are in flux, and Rodgers’ sacks are costing the team wins, pure and simple.

How much of the ridiculous 11.8% sack rate is Rodgers?  A lot of it, but probably about 3.5% is directly attributable to below acceptable offensive line play and sample size issue.  But he’s holding the ball longer this year, and tonight, on the same field as Brett Favre, he certainly does not look as comfortable in his offense as Favre looks in his.  Can you blame him?  I don’t know.  His defense has not helped very much.

But Aaron Rodgers is no one’s franchise quarterback at this point.  He’ll probably make it to a pro bowl or two in his career, and there will be better days ahead than last year’s 6-10 disappointment, hardly Rodgers’ fault.  But when I watch Brett Favre, I see a lot of the Brett Favre of past days.  And when I look at Rodgers, I see a lot of glory-day Marc Bulger.  For better or for worse.

After forcing a one-game playoff to decide the AL Central at the Metrodome on Tuesday night, it’s time to give the Twins some credit.  Win or lose.

I’m not much of a Twins fan.  In fact, in many ways, I despise the Twins.  But they draw my ire because they are successful.

How do the Twins do it?  They really have a simple plan.  They take advantage of the competitive advantages of being in the AL Central.  Ignore the Royals for a second; stupid is as stupid does.  If you have not considered this question before, ask yourself which team in the last decade you would rather root for given only their accomplishments:

Team A – 4 division championships, 8 years over .500, no finish below third place since 2000, one playoff series victory

Team B – 2 division championships, 5 years over .500, one playoff series victory, 3 fourth place finishes

The differences between the two teams is not in the competition they play, as team A is the Minnesota Twins, and team B is the Cleveland Indians.  The Indians and Twins have similarly strict budgets, but the Indians cycle through rebuilding every few years in an attempt to remake themselves.  It hasn’t always worked.  The 2oo7 version of the Indians was quite good, but the underlying performance factors did not support a 96 win team.  That team also extended a bunch of bad contracts to players like Johnnie Peralta and Travis Hafner.

The Twins do it differently.  Their superstars come and go: they essentially received nothing but mid-tier prospects for Johan Santana, but the Twins never concern themselves with being great in any given year.  If you play your games in the AL East, you, well have more of a budget to work with, but you have to concern yourself with being a top five team in the league in any given year to be competitive.  If you aren’t great, you’re wasting your money.  For the Blue Jays, that principle costed J.P. Riccardi his job.

Life is different in the AL Central.  What the Twins do is entirely different from what the Tigers do, which is very different from what the Indians do (and what the Royals do shouldn’t concern anyone).  And while the outcome of the game on Tuesday proves absolutely nothing, you’d have to argue that the Twins’ method of doing business has been the most optimal.

So how does the Twins’ plan work?  Well, you have to start with defense.  When they go outside the organization to acquire talent, defense is a primary consideration.  This isn’t any different from what the Tigers do, except in the fact that the Twins have been doing it much, much longer.  This year, Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, but the plan remains the same.

You also have to consider that the team has been lucky to develop the amount of superstars that they have.  Between Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau, we’re talking about one league MVP, another who will be league MVP, and a multi-time Cy Young winner.  It’s no secret why the Twins have been able to compete despite their budget.  But the second part of the Twins plan is that they know that every one of those players is expendible in the long run.  The Twins won’t give Joe Mauer a Travis Hafner type extension simply because he’s the best hitter in baseball right now.  They’ll probably get a value signing on Justin Morneau, but if they don’t they’re not married to him.  And closer Joe Nathan, such a huge part of the team’s success, is liable to be a trading chip as soon as the Twins have their next non-competitive season.

The Twins can compete with or without their superstars.  Obviously, this isn’t to discredit the season Mauer is having: without his awesome-ness, this playoff race would be over already (read: MVP).  But he very well might not be on the roster in 2011, and the Twins can justify it.

Finally, its that because the farm system is so strong, and the division is so perenially weak, the Twins can be legitimately projected to win 70-74 games, and go out and win the division at the end.  That’s the third part of their plan.  They don’t have to project as buyers or sellers, and they don’t even have to make a move at the trade deadline to be buyers.  They can “buy” from their farm system.  That’s something the Indians have never been able to do.  The Indians usually exhaust the resources in their farm system, go to compete, and then if they get off to a slow start, they’ll go out and replenish the farm system.  The Tigers will reach down to their system whenever they need to, and they also draft well enough to make that viable.

The Twins don’t need to draft expensive to draft well.  By being fiscally responsible, they put themselves in a position to take on a small portion of other teams bad contracts in August without having to trade any of their talent (see: Mahay, Ron).  They don’t put money into the draft like the Tigers do, and they don’t really even out-scout other teams.  They out-develop them.  They are patient with underperformers who don’t cost them a lot.  If you fail to develop with the Twins, you probably aren’t cut out for this league.  They don’t give out very many bad contracts.

The last time the Minnesota Twins won more than 95 games in a season, the AFL was an outdoor football league.  But by being unconcerned with trying to force greatness, the Twins are a very good organization who fields a strong team year in and year out, and doesn’t get deterred by a sub-.500 season or two.  After all, some teams with similar financial resources can have a bad decade or so.  There’s not a whole lot of pressure to perform, and frankly, the Twins need it that way.  On Tuesday, you’ll get to see if they can pay it off with a playoff berth.  And if they don’t, well, it’s not a crippling loss like it would be for the Tigers.  And that just might be the decisive competitive advantage.

These are my picks for the week.  I’ll try to post frequently today to make up for the fact that I’m not actually making this an article:

Bears over Lions, Player: Jay Cutler
Bengals over Browns, Player: Robert Geathers
Texans over Raiders, Player: Owen Daniels
Colts over Seahawks, Player: Donald Brown
Jaguars over Titans, Player: David Garrard
Giants over Chiefs, Player: Eli Manning
Ravens over Patriots, Player: Dominique Foxworth
Redskins over Buccaneers, Player: Clinton Portis
Bills over Dolphins, Player: Lee Evans
Saints over Jets, Player: Jonathon Vilma
Broncos over Cowboys, Player: Brandon Marshall
Rams over 49ers, Player: Laurent Robinson
Steelers over Chargers, Player: Santonio Holmes
Packers over Vikings, Player: Aaron Rodgers