Because it’s 2009, you can now use the RSS Links feed on the right hand side of your screen to subscribe to LiveBall Sports.
A quick little preview of each game that will be played today or tomorrow, and of course, a game pick.
I picked Tennessee to win on Thursday, so I start in an 0-1 hole. Not a gambler, so I don’t pick against the spread.
Miami at Atlanta
The primary storyline is the continued development of Matt Ryan as a passer, but I see the viability of the Miami Dolphins defense against a powerful runner like Michael Turner as the most important thing this game will decide. Turner the Burner did not chew up much of his yardage against the best defenses he faced last year, accruing most of his 1,699 yards against the likes of the Lions and the Rams. If the Dolphins defense finds itself in that category, it’s going to be a long season. Independent of this, I’m picking the Falcons.
Kansas City at Baltimore
I’m making this my elimination pick for the week. Matt Cassel isn’t healthy, but the Ravens defense finally is. Here’s a tidbit: the Ravens defense was the least healthy unit in the NFL last year. It was also one of the very best. No contest in this one, take the Ravens.
Philadelphia at Carolina
Put LeSean McCoy on the list of fantasy sleepers who could score big in Week One. He’s not going to start in this one, but with Brian Westbrook on a carry count, the Panthers defense trying to find bodies in the middle to stop the run, it’s just breaking perfectly for an 100 yard 2 TD debut for the talented rookie. Eagles.
Denver at Cincinnati
Very interesting game here today. You’ve got the Denver offense, so good a year ago with no changes on the OL, but at the skill positions, against a talented, dynamic Cincinnati Bengal defense. Denver needs a decisive win there, because the old, worn down secondary is going to have it’s hands full with Carson Palmer. Bengals.
Minnesota at Cleveland
I want to see how viable the Cleveland OL can be against perhaps the toughest DL in the league. If they can keep Brady Quinn clean in this one, they can probably keep him upright against anyone they play and it gives them a fighting chance. Still, the Cleveland defense can’t match up with Adrian Peterson against the run or the pass. If their solution to stopping him involves bringing more guys up than the Vikings can block, Brett Favre should have quite the day. Vikings.
NY Jets at Houston
The Jets OL is going to be a great test for the pass rush of the Texans. The key to this game though is going to be the match-up between the Texan LBs and Jets TE Dustin Keller. If they can take the tight end away, Mark Sanchez is in a lot of trouble in his first career start. I’ll take the Texans in this one, tenatively. Just don’t like the Jets defense in this one.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Last year, the Colts lost 4 of their first 7 games, and very nearly began 2-5. Before that, though, they had gone 3 consecutive seasons without a loss in September or October. Yeah, that makes the Colts a pretty good bet in this one no matter how prepared the Jags are.
Detroit at New Orleans
I’ve got my upset special working this game as Kevin Smith embarrasses the Saints defense to the tune of 150 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Lions win their first game since 2007.
Dallas at Tampa Bay
If the Bucs can keep DeMarcus Ware from getting hits and sacks on Byron Leftwich, I really like Tampa in this one. It’s a scary sort of upset pick because the Dallas defense might completely take over this game, but I don’t see Tony Romo enjoying much success in the air, and given the turnover in the Dallas secondary, the big-armed Leftwich could toss a couple of TDs.
San Francisco at Arizona
This is going to be a very tight game. Shaun Hill should enjoy considerable success against the Arizona defense, and Frank Gore might break a long run or two, making the 49ers a threat to score 20+ points in this limited-time offer. Kurt Warner, I think he struggles through this game, but when it comes down to it, he’s going to make the plays that will put the Cardinals at 1-0.
Washington at NY Giants
Team with the cleanest injury report in the league (Washington) vs. the team with the longest list of week one injuries (Giants)? Give me the Redskins.
St. Louis at Seattle
I think St. Louis will vulture a lot of wins this year off bad opponents, but I also thought that the last two years. In any event, Seattle is not a bad opponent. They begin a super bowl run here today.
Chicago at Green Bay
Really epic Sunday Night game here. It’s the first game in the next chapter of the Bears-Packers rivalry, quarterback edition! Aaron Rodgers gets a small edge over Jay Cutler at this point, but bring in the rest of the teams and I like the Bears to beat the Packers tonight.
Buffalo at New England
Over/under on Tom Brady passing yards in this game: 350. How about 150 on Randy Moss receiving yards? The only suspense in this one is, who exactly will carry the ball for the Patriots once this is out of hand? Patriots.
San Diego at Oakland
Just in case you thought LaDainian Tomlinson might be done: his average day against Oakland in his career goes for 120+ rushing yards and more than two touchdowns. Just sayin’, the Raiders might have been better not selling this one out. I like the Chargers.
******
Trippiedi’s season record to date: 0-1.
flickr.com/larrysphatpage
Final score: Michigan 38-34. So, what have we learned?
Number one, the Irish are a completely different team when they are playing with a two TD lead vs. a close game. In the former scenario, they combine a high powered passing game with a tough inside running game and a dominant passing defense that’s more likely to create a turnover than allow a score. But in a close game? Yeah, you can run on this team. Nevada ran on them when they were in the game, and because ND didn’t put UM away in the first half when they probably should have, Michigan was able to use the ground game to create offense in the second half.
There appears to be little doubt that Notre Dame has more talent than their ranking coming in suggested (No. 18), but it could be three weeks before the Irish earn their way back to this level in the polls. The story of this game is probably that a Notre Dame team that Michigan simply didn’t have the defensive personnel to stop were not nearly aggressive enough in the first half in putting away an inferior opponent. 305 total yards in the first half. But the Irish settled for three field goal attempts, which became 6 points.
What would have happened if Notre Dame had pushed forward and tried to convert it’s third and fourth downs in the first half? Could those 6 points have become 14, 17, or even 21 points? I have to think they could have been. Notre Dame could have gone into the locker room leading by two scores at half, and instead went in by 6 points. And coming out, they weren’t a markedly better team than the Maize and Blue were. They let Michigan keep the ball on the ground which is their offensive strength and Notre Dame’s defensive weakness, and that takes a potential blowout game and makes it an even playing field in the Big House, which is never really an even playing field.
If anything, I’m more optimistic now that Notre Dame can win 10 games than I was at the beginning of the season. Everything clicks for this offense, which can score points on absolutely anyone, even USC. But I think there’s a difference between having Brady Quinn behind center and having Jimmy Clausen. With the former, keeping the game close and trying to win it at the end is a sound strategy. With the latter, you really have to push the physical dominance of his team over the other, and not let Michigan have a meaningful drive at the end of the game. Clausen showed his resiliency coming from 11 points down to having a 4 point lead and a chance to run out the clock, but the guy isn’t Brady Quinn and may never be.
For Charlie Weis, it’s his first loss this year in which he probably left a win on the table. If there’s a second one of those, he’s not the coach of Notre Dame next season. The chances that he does not have this job next year seem to be about the same as the odds that the Irish lose to Michigan State at home. In Weis’ first season, he lost a very winnable game to the Spartans at home in much the same manner that he just lost to the Wolverines. If it’s a trend, well, the Irish can go 8-4 with someone else at head coach.
And for Tate Forcier, Rich Rodriguez, and the Wolverine Nation, it’s a well-earned signature win over a potential BCS team, and in this one writers opinion, I think it makes them the favorite to win the Big Ten and play in the Rose Bowl. It breathes life into the lifeless rivalry with the Buckeyes, as the teams will likely meet again for the Big Ten title for the first time since 2006. And it makes the Michigan Wolverines a good bet for 10 victories this year, which is more impressive than even the most optimistic of Michigan fans might have expected. They just beat the toughest non-conference opponent on their schedule. And they did it in a year when they play the Buckeyes at home.
Cold, hard predictions, in this post. A reference to mock future analysis here.
A detailed explanation of the NFC East rankings can be found here. The statistically objective LiveBall NFL power rankings can be found here. As always, best of luck to your team this season, and may your rivals be fallen with many gruesome yet completely impersonal injuries.
I give my best guess at a win total, followed by a confidence interval between “n/a” (high confidence) and “+/- 2″ (low confidence). The n/a designation is reserved for teams between 7-9 wins only.
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
AFC Champion
NFC Champion
Super Bowl XLIV Champion
flickr.com/Keith Allison
After suffering through the Lions and Pistons seasons this year, as well as a loss in the Stanley Cup Finals by the Red Wings, you can imagine why Detroit sports fans are really excited about their first place Tigers. What’s even better for these fans is that the Tigers have opened up the AL Central race, and with the nearest contender 6.5 GB and going in the wrong direction, any playoff tickets that have been raffled away appear to have value.
So the question is: will the Tigers make a splash in the postseason as well?
They can, but they’ll need to find other sources of offense. It’s probably a little cliched to speak of defense and pitching when talking about postseason baseball, but the Tigers have gotten this far behind defense and pitching. That’s not going away. But they will need to find some offense if they want to beat their divisional series opponent, which as of right now, would be the New York Yankees. The Yankees are near indisputably the best team in baseball.
Let’s look at four players who will determine the fates of the Tigers in October–3 position players and a pitcher: C Alex Avila, OF Carlos Guillen, OF Magglio Ordonez, and P Edwin Jackson
Avila is the hot prodigy. He’s a 2008 2nd round draft pick who soared up to the majors in mid-August, and has posted a spectacular small sample line of .295/.380/.629. He is so crucial because he provides a back-up catcher who can bring the lumber in relief of the more defensive-minded Gerald Laird (63 OPS+), but also because he offers a platoon option at DH that can help against a right hander like oh, say, A.J. Burnett in the playoffs. No, he’s not going to replace Laird in the postseason lineup, but having him for at least an at bat a game is a big advantage in the playoffs.
Carlos Guillen is a fantastic baseball player having a mediocre year in which he spent the first part of it injured. What the Tigers need from Guillen is to get back to his career level of production, while re-establishing himself as a starter in the outfield or even at first base (moving Miguel Cabrera to DH). This might be a real unrealistic, however, since the decline in bat speed of players at Guillen’s age (33) appears to be real. The Tigers would benefit a lot, however, from just a small bump in his on base percentage, which should come with improved two strike hitting (abnormally high K rate).
Magglio Ordonez is the most crucial piece of all. He seems to have lost his power stroke with only 7 homers this year. A Tigers playoff push can absolutely not afford to have Magglio Ordonez taking up space in the lineup. Even if the decline is completely real, they need him to get hot and stay hot into early November to be a threat. At this point, it appears that his $18 million dollar option for next season will vest, so there’s going to be plenty of pressure on the player as well to show that he’s not just a dead weight salary on the books for next year.
But the only player whose postseason performance pretty much decides whether the Tigers are just a nominal AL Central winner, or a championship threat is SP Edwin Jackson, who has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year, although just a No. 2 on this team with Justin Verlander as an ace. The thing is that Jackson’s rate statistics are good, but really don’t support a 3.10 ERA. If he goes out in the playoffs, and pitches two games and has no quality starts, gives up 8 runs in 10 IP, well, the first series will be the last for this team.
But on the flip side, he wouldn’t be the first player that improves his rate stats in the postseason if he does so, and if he can do so, an opponent would be facing Verlander, Jackson, and rookie phenom Rick Porcello in the first three games, and even optimistically, could be down 2 games to 1 against that trio. And we’re talking about the best teams in the league who might not be able to survive that three man rotation.
Because of the way the Tigers have been built–I’ll stop short of saying that they are built for postseason success–I think they can be very dangerous for anyone to play in October. They don’t really make defensive mental lapses, they have proven (if declining) offensive talent, and they’ve gotten the pitching all year. If they continue to get it, I think they can get to the ALCS, and probably further. If anything, it’s the uncertainty of the quality of their own pitching that makes them a questionable pick. But at this point, one thing appears to be certain: that they’ll win the AL Central and at least one team will have to beat this pitching rotation in the playoffs. The Yankees can’t be happy about that.
flickr.com/c h e e s e roc
As bad as the Kansas City Royals have been this season, it could be argued that while everything they needed to go well for them to compete turned out upside down, a few things that would make them feel good about the future turned out alright. The way Billy Butler and Alberto Callaspo have hit this year is a major positive, and what can you say about Zack Greinke? The Royals might have the most valuable player in baseball (not to be confused with the Most Valuable Player, the award).
Given the starting pitching and young talent, the Royals are at a point where most organizations would be like, “hey, lets give this a shot next year!” Well, the Royals are coming off of that mentality right now (100 losses remember), they have to get it together just to avoid a 100 loss season, and while this isn’t the 2008 Mariners in payroll exactly, they sure do look a lot like that team roster-wise. They increased their payroll by nearly $15 million to about $70 million next offseason. Tim Dierkes has his Royals’ salary breakdown of the Royals at MLB Trade Rumors.
The Royals don’t really need to be spending more than $70 million dollars to make this team competitive, but for one year at least, they’ll have to do some creative cutting just to hold payroll steady. It’s not ideal, but after the mess that team leadership created, it’s not a terrible situation either.
You may have heard by now that the Royals extended their General Manager, Dayton Moore, through 2014. The deal, by and large, was not deserved, but whether it made sense is a much broader question. We need to get right down to the question at the heart of the matter: is Dayton Moore the right man to lead the Royals into the next decade?
flickr.com/inabeanpod
The worst possible way to answer that question is to look at past moves and weigh the good ones against the bad ones. No one doubts that the Yuniesky Betancourt deal is going to hurt the Royals into the middle of the 2010 season, or that Gil Meche was for the most part a good use of $55 million dollars that the team had lying around. If a pitching rotation is the hardest part of a team to build–and it probably is–then Moore has built a strong foundation for a good team. But if he’s just going to spend the next two offseasons trading some of his pitching depth surplus for mid-level players who (not necessarily in the case linked) can’t really offer much upside, then the balance of Zack Greinke’s contract extension will be spent on a non-contender.
If the shrewd Greinke extension bought Moore some time, the Royals can’t be so naive as to think that Moore has also earned the right to waste that time. With the money spent on the draft in the past two seasons, the Royals should be plenty able to improve the on-field product and the farm system at the same time, and immediately. No one expects them to win 90 games next year, but getting back to the 75 win “high-water” mark they reached last year seems like a no-brainer goal. And, you know, the 2007 Mariners won 88 games, and they did it with Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, and Yuniesky Betancourt none-the-less. So don’t rule out the rebound, Royals fans.
Of course, neither Bill Bavasi nor Dayton Moore should be making a career out of trying to win games with weak players, which means that as the Royals turn to their farm system to plug a hole in right field and at catcher this offseason, it’s time to pull out all the stops. The Royals need to find a trade partner for Mark Teahen, and ideally, Alberto Callaspo (though the latter has significantly more value and could help the Royals get back to 75 wins with his bat at a premium position), and then they need to add two outfielders, a second baseman, a bench player or two, and a catcher to compete with Brayan Pena.
All of those holes are position player-related, and that’s the side of the baseball that has given Dayton Moore and his administration fits to date. Of less importance is the bullpen, which although completely useless to winning games this past season (an ERA of more than 5.00 team-wide), still has a lot of (expensive) talent under contract for 2010, and plenty of potential help there in AAA. That’s going to have to be on the back-burner for 2010, just a year after an effective bullpen was torn apart and rebuilt around Joakim Soria, resulting in a nearly 2 run increase in team ERA. So maybe moving it to the back-burner wasn’t such a bad plan.
The Royals, pure and simple, need to add position talent–with either defensive or offensive value–over the next two years through mostly internal means, and Dayton Moore has not shown he can be that guy. Expensive extension aside, I do not see how the Royals can have full support behind their General Manager if a year from now, these problems are not closer to being fixed. Team ownership should still have a critical eye to “the Process” as we judge the moves this team makes from this point forward.
flickr.com/echobase 2000
11.5 wins.
As it always is at USC, going anything less than 12-0 in the regular season remains a disappointment. Will this be the year that USC runs the table once again?
Well, if they don’t, you can expect the seemingly annual blemish to come from the group of games below:
Whereas the home schedule is remarkably soft (the Trojans have lost one game at the L.A. Coliseum since 2003), the road schedule is filled with potential pitfalls. Conventional wisdom suggest that those kind of hostile road games are the ones where freshman quarterback Matt Barkley could have a meltdown that costs USC it’s season.
But being the USC quarterback has it’s perks: even on a bad day, there are plenty of players on your team who will pick you up, and specifically on the defense. For Pete Carroll, neither John David Booty nor Mark Sanchez could pitch a perfect season on three absolutely dominant Trojan teams, so what exactly is the worst case scenario here? That you lose a game?!
In past seasons, the schedule might have contributed to non-perfect seasons because of the long stretches without quality opponents: you have to beat all of them, but it’s hard if not impossible to maintain the same level of play week to week. It’s not like you can control the kind of effort you get from your opponents on a weekly basis, so if a team’s performance is naturally fluctuating week to week, it’s probable that even the most dominant of teams will get caught in close match-ups from time to time.
If the quarterback breakdowns have bitten USC in the past, what’s to say it won’t happen to Barkley this year? Nothing. But it’s the games that there’s little doubt that USC will get up for that seem like they are the only pitfalls this year. And so? If the quarterback has a 3 INT day against a random opponent on USC’s schedule, there’s a pretty darn good chance that USC overcomes and wins anyway. And that why this team has the makings of an undefeated national championship team.
To be completely honest, out of all the above “pitfalls”, the only opponent that can beat USC on top of it’s game this year is Notre Dame, but they haven’t beaten the Trojans since 2001, and they’ll be a double digit point underdog when the team’s play…in South Bend. Simply put, USC could lose a regular season game again this year, but there’s no reason to think they will.
Not with this defense, and this crop of running backs. They’re just too good. Over.
flickr.com/Saquan Stimpson
Reppin’ our Division-1 FCS fans with a quick look at the Delaware Blue Hens, and whether or not they will over/under 8.5 wins.
If you are not familiar with D-I FCS football, they have a 16-team playoff. Before this becomes a “we need a playoff in ALL levels of college football” post comments section, it’s worth pointing out that the relative lack of media coverage makes their system successful. Because the best teams in FCS are often two loss teams in the better conferences, a bowl system would never work.
No one thinks the bowl system is dysfunctional in big-time college football, just that it needs to be reformed.
Well, two years ago, the Blue Hens were a harmless No. 8 seed in the 2007-2008 FCS playoffs, bound to win a game and get knocked off by no. 1 seed, the University of Northern Iowa. But that’s not exactly what happened. After beating cross-state rival Delaware state in the first round, the Blue Hens led the Panthers from the second quarter on in a win that would have been considered a major college upset at a higher level. As it was, it set up a National Semifinal in Carbondale, Illinois, where the play of Flacco lead them to another playoff win.
The dream died against Appalachian State in the national championship, in a game that could best be described as a beatdown by the team who had beaten Michigan earlier in the year. Delaware suffered major offensive graduations after the game, Flacco ended up heading to the Ravens in the first round, and a 4 year starter at RB–Omar Cuff–also graduated along with a pair of lineman and two of the top receivers.
In, 2008, the Hens went with Robbie Schoenhoft at quarterback, but he just looked in over his head against Maryland in a nationally televised game, the only one they would play last season. The Hens didn’t improve a struggling defense despite maturing talent, and limped to a disappointing 4-8 overall record, the NC runner up season a distant memory.
flickr.com/Saquan Stimpson
Enter the program savior. Pat Devlin, the highly recruited D-I quarterback got beat out by Darryl Clark at Penn State, and opted to transfer with two years of eligibility remaining. So head coach K.C. Keeler went back to the transfer well one more time, and now adds arguably the best pocket passer in the entire FCS division. It’s a pickup that Delaware had their eye on since the middle of last season, and it could be a season-maker.
So is it enough for Delaware to return to the playoffs? They’ll have to do well in the Colonial Athletic Association (formerly the Atlantic-10), widely regarded as the most powerful conference in the division. Their strongest competition, in no particular order: UMass, Richmond, James Madison, and a backyard brawl against Villanova. It’s not a bad schedule draw this year, because they miss perennial powerhouse New Hampshire.
flickr.com/radio rover
Whether or not they beat the over/under and make the playoffs could come down to their ability to beat Navy, the only FBS team on their schedule. Flacco did it, it might have been his crowning regular season achievement for a team that started 8-1. But even though Navy can’t recruit like a true FBS team because of service academy limitations, they still have to be considered a favorite over this Delaware team, who was not able to handle Paul Johnson’s triple option attack in 2007. Though Flacco out shot the Midshipmen, that team was good enough to beat Notre Dame later in the year.
Ultimately, I think Delaware takes care of business against Villanova and UMass, as well as the rest of the CAA, and I think they plug their way to a 9-3 record, and return to the FCS champions bracket as a 7-9 seed. They might not be able to make it two straight over Navy, but they don’t necessarily have to. Over.
flickr.com/Big Ed's Photos
I think my brother put it best: if Tyrod Taylor can execute a pro-style offense at the college level this year (1 TD, 5 INT last season), 9.5 wins seems almost too low for the Hokies.
Last year, no team with 4+ losses was remotely competitive in their bowl game; none except the Virginia Tech Hokies that is, who beat the 2 loss Cincinnati Bearcats quite convincingly (20-7). The Hokies, unlike pretty much the rest of the ACC, win with defense and special teams. That’s a combination usually reserved for pro football, as college coaches–even defensive minded ones–tend to create offensive machines since the Division I-FBS environment lends itself to wide open offense that forces defenses into quick decisions to compensate for the speed disadvantage they have trying to stop spread offenses.
The SEC is a notable exception to this rule, as coaches there tend to recruit enough speed for both sides of the ball, but Virginia Tech has always been defense first, then special teams, and then offense. And this particular season, I think the combination is bound to give them a competitive advantage not seen in past seasons.
Unlike a lot of SEC offense, Tech has taken a lot of spread offense principles over the years, and incorporated them into their offense. This is one of the things that makes their match-up Saturday night with Nick Saban and Alabama so intriguing for an unbiased observer like myself: two teams that are very similar philosophically, one from the powder puff ACC, the other from the brutal SEC, and yet, it might be the ACC team that has the upper hand this year. The competitive dynamic of the ACC does not force Virginia Tech to do what Alabama does to compete, but the focus of Frank Beamer and his staff, in terms of the big picture, was never about ACC championships.
I don’t know if Virginia Tech will beat Alabama, as a lot of that depends on how well prepared Alabama is in 2009. Three years ago, Nick Saban was leading a professional football team who everyone thought was front runners for the AFC East title and consequent super bowl. That team finished in last place, giving up 23 more points than they scored, and most importantly, won 1 of 7 games leading up to it’s bye week. The 2006 Miami Dolphins are merely a cautionary tale for the 2009 Crimson Tide, as there were circumstances that contributed to the preseason ranking that Saban had no control over, but there appears to be similar expectations for Alabama this year.
I do know that I still like VT’s national championship chances, win or lose on Saturday. This is mostly because I don’t believe Alabama will be a contender for the BCS title game: they do not seem to have the horses to beat Florida or even LSU this year, while the Hokies will have plenty of chances to get to 11-1 while defeating quality opponents along the way. Key games (other than ‘Bama) include:
The Hokies always schedule well, and this year is no exception. As it works out this year, most of their critical games will come at home this year, and there won’t be a Matt Ryan figure to ruin their season this time. What it boils down to is protecting their home field, and finding a way to beat Georgia Tech on the road if they want to remain in the national championship discussion.
No test will be tougher than GT’s triple option offense for a team that prides itself on stopping the spread. Georgia Tech happens to be the one other team in the conference who likes to go with defense first (although having John Shoop as North Carolina’s offensive coordinator more or less forces them to be a defensive squad), and I’m more than willing to predict that the winner of that game is going to be the eventual ACC Championship winner. It’s a fair matchup for the Hokies, and that’s not something they plan on seeing very much of this year.
Anyway, I was asked to pick the over under on 9.5 wins, and with more than two potential pitfalls, it’s not an easy one to do so, but this is a talented team. Thus, I’m implored to take the over on VT this year. I expect a bare minimum of 10 wins, and this is a team that’s capable of a 12-0 regular season and a national championship apperance. Does the schedule lend itself to this outcome? Not really, but win both of the games played in Atlanta, and the majority of the Hokies’ dirty work will be done at home where they have been very good. Unlike in prior years, the ACC Championship will likely not serve as a pitfall, but rather a resume builder for BCS Bowl status. Even if they end up in the Orange Bowl again, they’ll be the likely winners. I just don’t think they’ll stop there: the ultimate goal this year is a national championship.
flickr.com/fokket
Let’s go high, and more directly, let’s not let anyone sit on the fence: 11.0 wins.
We’ll include the bowl game in here. So if you think Boise State can only go 11-1, but can win their (non-BCS?) bowl game, you’re taking the over here. Likewise, if you think they are only capable of 10 wins in the regular season, might as well bet the under. In two of the last three seasons, the Broncos have won more than 11 games. So can they make it 3 out of 4?
So, lets start with the obvious: can the Broncos run the table, again?
The Broncos have gone 20-1 in WAC competition over the past 3 seasons. That’s a remarkable run, regardless of the fact that most of those teams are not very good. Truth of the matter is–and the reason that the mid-majors remain mid-majors–is that success is hard to sustain for any team that isn’t in a BCS conference. To turn your success into a competitive recruiting advantage, it says a lot about the quality of coach that Chris Petersen is for the Broncos. And the job he’s done, you know think that Boise is more likely to be accepted into a conference such as the Pac-1o before they come back to the pack in the WAC.
flickr.com/Hometown Invasion Tour
So, we’re looking at a minimum of 7 wins, and probably an 8-0 record in WAC play. The one real threats in the conference are the games at Fresno State, and at Hawaii. Boise is better than both teams, but I worry especially about the level of performance after the flight to Honolulu, since the only loss in the last 24 WAC games came at the hands of Colt Brennan and the Rainbow Warriors. Despite my relative concern, I’m confident that this will be another 8-0 WAC season for the reigning WAC champs.
That’s based on a large-sample dominance. What we have less of a sample of is how the Broncos will do against Non-conference opponents, where they have an impressive-but-not substantial 12-3 record in the last three years. The Broncos usually schedule softly, which makes sense: if you play in a conference where the national guys are going to poo-poo your schedule no matter what, might as well make it to 12-13 wins any way you can. This season, the Broncos have the following non-conference schedule:
As someone who lives in an area where the MAC is televised every weekend, we’ll just say that this is not a very difficult MAC draw for the Broncos this year. They’ll win those games, and UC Davis isn’t a FBS team, so that’s an incredibly joke stretch.
That leaves Oregon and Tulsa as the non-conference opponents who could beat Boise State. The Oregon game is going to be the first nationally televised college football game of the year, so you know the nation will be watching. You hear the Ducks described in certain circles as underrated, a team that is hungry for revenge against Boise State after the Broncos beat the Ducks in Eugene last season, but I don’t buy the rhetoric. I think Boise is very much the favorite in this game. It’s not that Oregon can’t win this game: they have the best chance of any team to take down Boise state this year, and their top 25 ranking is well earned. I just don’t want to here how a team with as much turnover as they had last year and this year is “underrated” at a preaseason No. 16.
Notre Dame is getting some pull at being “underrated” at No. 23, and there’s thought that they could be a BCS team. What in the world have the Oregon Ducks accomplished to be underrated, but in the top 20? Now, under the lights on the blue turf, I think you’re more likely to see a Boise State blowout than a Oregon win.
Can Tulsa knock them off? I think they are capable: they beat Ball State in the GMAC Bowl 45-13. They lost QB Paul Smith to graduation though, and they are simply just one of a few teams Boise plays where they need to bring their “A” game to comfortably win.
In summary, if the Boise State Broncos are either 1) the team that they appear to be, or 2) a function of the recruiting they’ve done since the 2006 Fiesta Bowl Champion season, they should beat every team on their schedule by a margin of 10-17 points, and should represent the mid-major conferences in the BCS for the second time in four years. I’m not confident they will run the table, but I know they are certainly capable of doing so, and as for a prediction, I see no precise reason that Boise State would not do so.
I like the over on the Broncos, and a BCS Bowl Apperance.
