LiveBall Sports

A quick little preview of each game that will be played today or tomorrow, and of course, a game pick.

I picked Tennessee to win on Thursday, so I start in an 0-1 hole.  Not a gambler, so I don’t pick against the spread.

Miami at Atlanta

The primary storyline is the continued development of Matt Ryan as a passer, but I see the viability of the Miami Dolphins defense against a powerful runner like Michael Turner as the most important thing this game will decide.  Turner the Burner did not chew up much of his yardage against the best defenses he faced last year, accruing most of his 1,699 yards against the likes of the Lions and the Rams.  If the Dolphins defense finds itself in that category, it’s going to be a long season.  Independent of this, I’m picking the Falcons.

Kansas City at Baltimore

I’m making this my elimination pick for the week.  Matt Cassel isn’t healthy, but the Ravens defense finally is.  Here’s a tidbit: the Ravens defense was the least healthy unit in the NFL last year.  It was also one of the very best.  No contest in this one, take the Ravens.

Philadelphia at Carolina

Put LeSean McCoy on the list of fantasy sleepers who could score big in Week One.  He’s not going to start in this one, but with Brian Westbrook on a carry count, the Panthers defense trying to find bodies in the middle to stop the run, it’s just breaking perfectly for an 100 yard 2 TD debut for the talented rookie.  Eagles.

Denver at Cincinnati

Very interesting game here today.  You’ve got the Denver offense, so good a year ago with no changes on the OL, but at the skill positions, against a talented, dynamic Cincinnati Bengal defense.  Denver needs a decisive win there, because the old, worn down secondary is going to have it’s hands full with Carson Palmer.  Bengals.

Minnesota at Cleveland

I want to see how viable the Cleveland OL can be against perhaps the toughest DL in the league.  If they can keep Brady Quinn clean in this one, they can probably keep him upright against anyone they play and it gives them a fighting chance.  Still, the Cleveland defense can’t match up with Adrian Peterson against the run or the pass.  If their solution to stopping him involves bringing more guys up than the Vikings can block, Brett Favre should have quite the day.  Vikings.

NY Jets at Houston

The Jets OL is going to be a great test for the pass rush of the Texans.  The key to this game though is going to be the match-up between the Texan LBs and Jets TE Dustin Keller.  If they can take the tight end away, Mark Sanchez is in a lot of trouble in his first career start.  I’ll take the Texans in this one, tenatively.  Just don’t like the Jets defense in this one.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Last year, the Colts lost 4 of their first 7 games, and very nearly began 2-5.  Before that, though, they had gone 3 consecutive seasons without a loss in September or October.  Yeah, that makes the Colts a pretty good bet in this one no matter how prepared the Jags are.

Detroit at New Orleans

I’ve got my upset special working this game as Kevin Smith embarrasses the Saints defense to the tune of 150 rushing yards and 3 TDs.  Lions win their first game since 2007.

Dallas at Tampa Bay

If the Bucs can keep DeMarcus Ware from getting hits and sacks on Byron Leftwich, I really like Tampa in this one.  It’s a scary sort of upset pick because the Dallas defense might completely take over this game, but I don’t see Tony Romo enjoying much success in the air, and given the turnover in the Dallas secondary, the big-armed Leftwich could toss a couple of TDs.

San Francisco at Arizona

This is going to be a very tight game.  Shaun Hill should enjoy considerable success against the Arizona defense, and Frank Gore might break a long run or two, making the 49ers a threat to score 20+ points in this limited-time offer.  Kurt Warner, I think he struggles through this game, but when it comes down to it, he’s going to make the plays that will put the Cardinals at 1-0.

Washington at NY Giants

Team with the cleanest injury report in the league (Washington) vs. the team with the longest list of week one injuries (Giants)?  Give me the Redskins.

St. Louis at Seattle

I think St. Louis will vulture a lot of wins this year off bad opponents, but I also thought that the last two years.  In any event, Seattle is not a bad opponent.  They begin a super bowl run here today.

Chicago at Green Bay

Really epic Sunday Night game here.  It’s the first game in the next chapter of the Bears-Packers rivalry, quarterback edition!  Aaron Rodgers gets a small edge over Jay Cutler at this point, but bring in the rest of the teams and I like the Bears to beat the Packers tonight.

Buffalo at New England

Over/under on Tom Brady passing yards in this game: 350.  How about 150 on Randy Moss receiving yards?  The only suspense in this one is, who exactly will carry the ball for the Patriots once this is out of hand?  Patriots.

San Diego at Oakland

Just in case you thought LaDainian Tomlinson might be done: his average day against Oakland in his career goes for 120+ rushing yards and more than two touchdowns.  Just sayin’, the Raiders might have been better not selling this one out.  I like the Chargers.

******

Trippiedi’s season record to date: 0-1.

Final score: Michigan 38-34.  So, what have we learned?

Number one, the Irish are a completely different team when they are playing with a two TD lead vs. a close game.  In the former scenario, they combine a high powered passing game with a tough inside running game and a dominant passing defense that’s more likely to create a turnover than allow a score.  But in a close game?  Yeah, you can run on this team.  Nevada ran on them when they were in the game, and because ND didn’t put UM away in the first half when they probably should have, Michigan was able to use the ground game to create offense in the second half.

There appears to be little doubt that Notre Dame has more talent than their ranking coming in suggested (No. 18), but it could be three weeks before the Irish earn their way back to this level in the polls.  The story of this game is probably that a Notre Dame team that Michigan simply didn’t have the defensive personnel to stop were not nearly aggressive enough in the first half in putting away an inferior opponent.  305 total yards in the first half.  But the Irish settled for three field goal attempts, which became 6 points.

What would have happened if Notre Dame had pushed forward and tried to convert it’s third and fourth downs in the first half?   Could those 6 points have become 14, 17, or even 21 points?  I have to think they could have been.  Notre Dame could have gone into the locker room leading by two scores at half, and instead went in by 6 points.  And coming out, they weren’t a markedly better team than the Maize and Blue were.  They let Michigan keep the ball on the ground which is their offensive strength and Notre Dame’s defensive weakness, and that takes a potential blowout game and makes it an even playing field in the Big House, which is never really an even playing field.

If anything, I’m more optimistic now that Notre Dame can win 10 games than I was at the beginning of the season.  Everything clicks for this offense, which can score points on absolutely anyone, even USC.  But I think there’s a difference between having Brady Quinn behind center and having Jimmy Clausen.  With the former, keeping the game close and trying to win it at the end is a sound strategy.  With the latter, you really have to push the physical dominance of his team over the other, and not let Michigan have a meaningful drive at the end of the game.  Clausen showed his resiliency coming from 11 points down to having a 4 point lead and a chance to run out the clock, but the guy isn’t Brady Quinn and may never be.

For Charlie Weis, it’s his first loss this year in which he probably left a win on the table.  If there’s a second one of those, he’s not the coach of Notre Dame next season.  The chances that he does not have this job next year seem to be about the same as the odds that the Irish lose to Michigan State at home.  In Weis’ first season, he lost a very winnable game to the Spartans at home in much the same manner that he just lost to the Wolverines.  If it’s a trend, well, the Irish can go 8-4 with someone else at head coach.

And for Tate Forcier, Rich Rodriguez, and the Wolverine Nation, it’s a well-earned signature win over a potential BCS team, and in this one writers opinion, I think it makes them the favorite to win the Big Ten and play in the Rose Bowl.  It breathes life into the lifeless rivalry with the Buckeyes, as the teams will likely meet again for the Big Ten title for the first time since 2006.  And it makes the Michigan Wolverines a good bet for 10 victories this year, which is more impressive than even the most optimistic of Michigan fans might have expected.  They just beat the toughest non-conference opponent on their schedule.  And they did it in a year when they play the Buckeyes at home.