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The New York Jets will become Mark Sanchez’ team at some point in the early part of this year.  And once they do, there will be a very rare NFL grace period.  There is perhaps no other team that could go 5-11 this year and produce long-term optimism within the fanbase, but such is the case of the 2009 New York Jets.

Call it the allure of Mark Sanchez.  Jets fans want to see this man play, and they want to see him play right away.  If he struggles, they will give him a hard time, but when they open the 2010 season, there will be plenty of 11 and 12 win predictions for Rex Ryan’s Jets.  In fact, the only “wrong” decision in the eyes of many would be to give Kellen Clemens the job.

Here’s the fun part: if the Jets truly think they can win this year, don’t they have to give the keys to the 4-year vet?  I know, I know, Rex Ryan coached a defense that won with a rookie QB last year, but there were few expectations in Baltimore last year, and the Ravens surprised a bunch of people.  Now, the Jets were a 9-7 team last year with Brett Favre at quarterback, and as recently as last November, they were being hailed as the AFC’s premier team.  A 1-4 finish help kick-start a rebuilding project.

This is a team with a very strong offensive line, more than capable of protecting a rookie quarterback like Sanchez, and opening up gaping holes in the running game, but if you look at the passing weapons, there is not much there for any quarterback.  In this aspect, the team is basically set up for a rookie quarterback: few reads, get the ball out of his hand quickly, and pound the rock whenever in doubt.  But there’s only so much you can squeeze out of an offense like that.

When you build an offense to develop with it’s rookie quarterback, you might as well play the rookie, but there’s some reason to think that the Jets might be passing a great opportunity to compete now.  When I put them to the QDS test, they scored a 10, making them an average team.  Not to suggest any sort of infallibility here, but that suggests they are on level ground with the Jaguars and Bengals, and just a hair behind the Texans and Ravens for the 6th playoff spot in the AFC.  That’s a 15-30% shot at the playoffs, a better chance than either the Dolphins or the Bills have this year.

The reason, the concentration of the talent on this team, is on the Jets’ defense.  Kris Jenkins returns as a dominant 3-4 nose tackle.  He wore down at the end of last season as the Jets defense declined from it’s period of dominance in November to the team that was lit up by the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks.  But this year, he will be protecting one of the best 3-4 ILB duos, as David Harris returns and will be paired with free agent signing Bart Scott.  When the strength of the front seven gets combined with a shutdown corner in Darrell Revis, and a top safety pair in Kerry Rhodes and Jim Leonhard, we’re talking about a top half defense with the ability to be a top ten unit if Rex Ryan is as good as advertised.

The weakness on the unit is much-maligned CB Lito Sheppard, who comes over in a trade from Philadelphia.  At only 28 years of age, Sheppard has been to two pro-bowls, most recently in 2006.  But in the last two seasons, Sheppard has been beyond awful.  It’s the same scheme he played in he was a pro bowler, so maybe Rex Ryan thinks he can bring him back from the verge of busting, but Sheppard should be a very frequent target for quarterbacks this season, and will negate much of the strength of the secondary.

The other wild card on the defense is second year pass rusher Vernon Gholston.  With Calvin Pace suspended for the first four games of the year, Gholston might only have one chance to save himself from bustville.  He recorded no sacks, no hits, and no quarterback pressures last year, though that’s a little misleading.  He wasn’t asked to rush as often as he would have liked, and then when he didn’t produce in limited time, he saw his playing time cut.  His college production suggests success at this level, but when Pace gets back, the window of opportunity might have closed on Gholston.

The 2009 Jets are an interesting case study.  The Baltimore Ravens were a playoff team last year.  Now, what if you take that team, take the No. 2 defense and reduce it’s quality by 50-75%, then center the offense mostly around the quarterback instead of around the running game.  That’s the Jets this year.  11 wins?  Not happening.  8 or 9 wins?  Maybe.  6 or 7 wins?  That’s more like it.

Jets Camp, Cortland, NY

There’s a lot of undrafted players on this team, both from last year’s roster and this year’s signings.  Rex Ryan will have to separate the men from the boys throughout the rest of this camp.

Wide Receiver: Brad Smith vs. Aundrae Allison vs. Wallace Wright

Brad Smith was a Mangini pick in 2006 who hasn’t developed as a receiver, and is at risk of losing the 4th WR job to Allison, who was picked up after he was put on waivers by the Vikings.  They could hold onto him as a 5th receiver/special teamer, but would they do so at the expense of Wallace Wright, who held the role last year?  Smith is very much on the bubble.

Tight End: Jack Simmons vs. Kareem Brown vs. Kevin Brock

I have never heard of any of these guys, and in the 3 WR base sets the Jets will run, a second TE is not all that important, much less a third tight end, but behind Bubba Franks and Dustin Keller, you’d think there would have been room on this team for someone with name recognition, no?

Guard: Stanley Daniels vs. Matt Slauson vs. Nevin McCaskill

All three of these guys were undrafted, and Daniels has the most playing experience of the group, but one of these guys is going to be looking for work within a week and a half.

Defensive End: Mike DeVito vs. Ropati Pitoitua vs. Zach Potter

Potter is a prospect as a defensive end in the 3-4, but Pitoitua is the one who is making the most noise in camp, he’s up at No. 2 on the depth chart, which isn’t good for Potter.  Would the Jets go with two inexperienced backups at the DE position?  If so, DeVito might be on the bubble.  He’s the most physically limited of the three, but played a lot last season for Eric Mangini.

Defensive Tackle: Sione Pouha vs. Howard Green

Pouha was a Herm Edwards pick who really has developed over the last two years, working his way onto the second team by 2007.  Howard Green was a 4-3 nose tackle on three teams previously, most recently with the Seattle Seahawks, but he hasn’t started a game since 2004 with the Saints.  He was brought in to push people at two positions, and he’ll do that, though I’m not expecting him to make the team.

Inside Linebacker: Brandon Renkart vs. Jamaal Westerman vs. Kenwin Cummings

Not one member of this group has seen a live NFL snap.  You have some experienced practice squad guys, and an undrafted rookie, so who fills out the back of Rex Ryan’s 53 man roster, if anyone, is your best guess.

Cornerback: Donald Strickland vs. Ahmad Carroll vs. Drew Coleman

Strickland was signed when the 49ers let him go earlier this week.  He’s the front runner for the 4th CB spot.  Drew Coleman has way more upside than Ahmad Carroll, who has been a complete bust since the Packers took him in the first round of the 2002 draft.  His career is likely over if he can’t make the roster.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB Kellen Clemens
• FB Tony Richardson
• LB Larry Izzo
• CB Dwight Lowery
• S Eric Smith

Falcons One-liner: If Matt Ryan is the real deal, there’s no telling how far this team can go in the next three years.

But for the Falcons to actually improve on last season, they need something special to happen unexpectedly.  With the trade for tight end Tony Gonzalez, it looks like they are trying to make their own luck happen, which is as admirable as it may be misguided.  But something is telling about the fact that they dealt a 2010 pick instead of a 2009 pick for Gonzalez, and it’s something that tells be that G.M. Thomas Dimitroff is not much a fan of Phil Savage’s work.

This looks to be a deliberate attempt not to let a 2009 gamble affect the smoothness of the rebuilding process.  Perhaps I’m reading too much into it.  Maybe the Chiefs just thought the 2010 draft was stronger.  But by acquiring Gonzalez without trading a 2009 draft pick, the Falcons keep moving in the right direct while they give Matt Ryan a weapon that could put their offense over the top.

Let’s be clear: Gonzalez came with a serious cost to the Falcons to what could amount to just two or three years at the end of a hall of fame career at a non-premium position.  But what if Matt Ryan really is a once in a generation passer, and not just a good solid use of the third overall pick?  Sure, there’s no way to tell if he’s the next Dan Marino, but the comparisons have been made, and if he actually is, then Gonzalez could be the difference between a super bowl contender and a super bowl winner.  It appears to be another in a series of calculated gambles that will define Dimitroff’s tenure.

Now, back to reality.  Last year, the numbers said the Falcons would stink (they were wrong), and this year they say that they’ll struggle again.  No matter how well Ryan plays this year, he’s almost sure to be hamstrung by an ineffective defense all year, one that seems on the surface even worse than last year’s version.  They overcame their projected struggles last year entirely because of Ryan, Michael Turner, and unexpected strong play from the offensive line.

But now, you can factor in the relative strength of those players–not their 2008 levels, but an expectation for 2009 after mean regression–and the Falcons still don’t come out looking like a good team.  They only score a seven in QDS (quality starters plus depth)–this is the average score of the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams by the way–and while they are deciding plenty of things over a training camp grind, the immediate depth is a real issue for a team that managed to stay very healthy last year.

Of course, there’s two ways to make my quick and dirty metric looks like it knows nothing: have a great talent development machine, or have simply excellent performers in breakout years.  It’s way too early to determine if the Falcons qualify for either of these factors, but a last place finish in the NFC South would suggests that they didn’t, and were simply understaffed.

Let’s go back to Turner for a second.  One of the biggest expectations for decline in the 2009 Falcons is that their 1,700 yard back from last year qualifies for the “Curse” of 370: which suggests that running backs who see too many carries in a single season will decline in near-future seasons.  Turner qualifies for this curse, but it’s important to look into other factors for decline before simply writing off a back based on carries in year n-1.

For example, Turner has never averaged worse than 4.5 yards per carry in any season in his career (going back to college at Northern Illinois), which is what he got each of the last two years.  So what makes him a risk of a sub-4.0 ypc season?  It’s not the curse of 370.  The truth is, as Matthew Berry of ESPN pointed out, if Turner is overworked at 376 carries, then Adrian Peterson is likely overworked as well at 363 carries.  No one is predicting a major decline for Peterson, so what’s the difference?

It’s Turner who ran up his yardage against the softest opponents on his schedule: 200 yard games against Detroit and St. Louis, 120+ yard games against Tampa, Oakland, and Green Bay.  His median performance was a 3.7 yard per carry game.  Peterson, on the other hand, was held below 4.0 YPC only twice last year: ironically, against the Saints and Falcons.  Peterson was having his median days against the Bears defense, while Turner was simply going off against bad competition.

He’s good enough to generate eight in the box fronts, but he’s not good enough to open up the deep passing game should Matt Ryan start hot in the first four games.  That’s why there’s significant decline predicted from one back around 370 carries, and nothing from the other.  Looking at the levels of talent separates the two; despite last year, Turner is probably not one of the best 15 backs in the NFL.  But it also might provide some insight about the Curse of 370 itself: why do players like Larry Johnson and Michael Turner break the threshold, while more physically talented players like LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, and Adrian Peterson consistently threaten it, but do not break it?  Intriguing.

But, at the risk of simplifying the defense into three big time players (and one sentence): DT Peria Jerry, DE John Abraham, and LB Curtis Lofton, this all goes back to Ryan.  If he has 1,400 passing yards in the first four games, we might just be witnessing a truly historic player who will win 3-4 games for his team every season.  A player who may be the successor to Manning and Brady.  But it’s way more likely that the increased responsibility thrust on him by a suddenly inconsistent running game causes his first bit of adversity as an NFL quarterback.

The likely encore to last year’s 7 win improvement is a 4 or 5 win regression to the mean.  Schedule made a big difference in the Falcons affairs last year, and plenty of their wins were decided by tight margins.  Still, this is a well built team and it would shock no one if they returned to the playoffs this year, but the NFC is wide open for a reason.  The supposed “contenders” are flawed, and there’s no shortage of teams who finished behind you in the standings willing to knock you down a peg or two.  The rest of the NFC South is more talent laden than the Falcons, and they can’t count on immediate contributions from their young talent.  Without it, they can’t expect to return to the postseason in 2009.

Falcons Camp, Flowery Branch, GA

Lots of camp battles for a team that tends to be very thin on depth overall.

Third Quarterback: D.J. Shockley vs. John Parker Wilson

Shockley might be in the wrong place at the wrong time, but on the other hand, he’s kind of been a de-facto number three quarterback in his career who played one season at Georgia before Matt Stafford took over.  Now, Parker Wilson was a great college quarterback who seems like a nice scheme fit because his skill set is very much in the mold of Matt Ryan.  Now, the backup quarterback here is Chris Redman, and he’s a bad scheme fit in the vertical offense the Falcons want to establish.  This is good for Shockley.

Running Back: Jason Snelling vs. Thomas Brown

Thomas Brown was a very successful running back at Georgia who was on the practice squad last season, and brings breakaway speed to the offense, making him a poor man’s Jerious Norwood.  Jason Snelling on the other hand is a converted fullback, who the team discovered could run the ball and pass block as a single back.  He’s a better fit for what they like, but if both players continue to impress, Snelling’s versatility means you can fit Brown on the 53-man roster if you choose.

Tight End: Ben Hartsock vs. Jason Rader

Jason Rader was the third tight end last year, and he out-played Ben Hartsock.  But the Falcons acquired Hartsock because they like his blocking and thought he could fill a major hole.  Right now, he’s very much on the bubble due to his lack of future value.

Linebacker: Jamie Winborn vs. Spencer Adkins

Winborn, the longtime vet, is nearing the end of the line, and Spencer Adkins is a linebacker from the University of Miami, meaning that he’s going to feel at home inside this division.  Like the RB situation, this is not an either/or kind of thing, but if Adkins shows he can play, there’s little point for Winborn on special teams.

Cornerback: Christopher Owens vs. Von Hutchins vs. William Middleton

This is the problem area of the Falcons.  Their top three corner are all really young: none are in more than their third season.  So you have two veterans in Hutchins and Middleton, but how much sense do veteran corners make as roster fillers?  I don’t have the answer to that question, so they’ll probably be apt to choose the most valuable special teams players of the bunch.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB Chris Redman
• WR Brian Finneran
• DE Jamaal Anderson
• DT Jason Jefferson
• LB Coy Wire

The notion that Mark Teixiera is a shoo-in for the AL MVP award set off an absolute firestorm in the blogosphere, mostly circling around the fact that there’s a lot of people complete unaware that baseball exists outside of Boston and New York.  Anyway, once the error in thinking was brought to the attention of the local guys in New York, the two sides quickly drew their battle-lines.

The debate centered mostly around exactly what the MVP is for.  Of course, the ballot itself doesn’t exactly leave this up for debate.  It lists the criteria in clear, bullet point form.

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

Okay, so some of the criteria itself is vague and open to debate, but the most incredululous of emotions is derived from the stigma that the MVP has to come from a strong team, if not a first place team.  That doesn’t pass the smell test to anyone who has senses, and just last year, Albert Pujols beat out Ryan Howard for the MVP award.  Mind you, it was closer than it should have been, but the AL MVP race is shaping up similarly this year.

If you’ll remember, valuation metrics never viewed Ryan Howard as one of the top 2-3 players on the Philadelphia Phillies last year, despite the fact that he got significant pull towards the league MVP award.  Unfortunately, that’s the way things have always been done.  Howard is the middle of the order threat on a really good team, so he finished runner-up in the MVP race.  This year’s AL race is not about Joe Mauer, and it never was.

There is no objective argument that suggests that Mauer isn’t the MVP this year, because everything we currently know about valuing baseball players says that this isn’t a close race.  But that’s making the assumption that the Most Valuable Player award is about value, which is not entirely fair.  The award is about what is fair to the contenders.  And that’s not an objective arguement that suggests that there is a better baseball player in the AL than Joe Mauer.

This race is about Mark Teixiera.  He’s going to wind up leading the best team in baseball in both RBI’s and slugging percentage.  In the past, a performance like that has been rewarded with the MVP award.  If it’s even close at the end of the year, he’s going to get the nod.  Should he?  That sounds like a rhetorical question, but it isn’t.

His numbers are very inflated by the ballpark he plays in, the people on base in front of him (like Derek Jeter), and general intangibleness…but he does fit all the criteria in most years.  More importantly, he’s doing nothing right now that hasn’t earned plenty of people before him the MVP award.  If you tell Teixiera “hey, you’re not actually the MOST valuable player in the league, (this is true) so despite your excellent production, you’re not actually under consideration for the award,” you’d be telling Teixiera that the performance level that was good enough for everyone in the past up until now is no longer what we’re considering.  Is that fair?

Granted, it’s wrong to call this an open and shut case just yet with more than a month to go (says the man who called the AL Cy Young race with 2 months to go) for anyone.  I think if Mauer continues this torrid pace, you have to give him the award.  Have to.  If he hits better than .360 on the year with a .450 on base percentage, and Pujols-esque OPS totals, then between that, and his defense, he’s GOING to win it.  Outside of New York, I think Mauer has the lead in the mind of most people right now.

And I agree that, on a basic level, Derek Jeter is having a more valuable year than Mark Teixiera.  I’m just saying that there’s nothing wrong with voting for a great player having a remarkable year.

Which is exactly why, if the race ended today, Joe Mauer should be the AL MVP.

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How cool would it have been if the Texans had been the ones to sign Michael Vick?  Now that the Shanahan-era Broncos are no more, Michael Vick would have been the one backup up Matt Schaub (oh, irony!) in an offense that fit both of their skill sets better than the Greg Knapp west coast did.

This is just about the only thing the Texans could have done to quick boost their offense.  In the long run, Schaub need to show more patience, especially outside of the pocket, where he had a tendency to commit the big turnovers.  Patience is the key because, otherwise, the Texans offense is both efficient and explosive.  Schaub’s reads will improve with time, but the per pass efficiency and the gashing running game are already present.  The offense is Gary Kubiak’s baby, and the Texans are on the verge of delivering this year.

Here’s your problem: we’ve been waiting for the Texans defense to break through based on the amount of talent they’ve added since 2004.  Last year, it looked like everything was in place for the explosive breakout.  We predicted, projected, and prognosticated, and four weeks in, nothing looked any different.  You want points against from the first five games?  How about 38, 31, 30, 31, 28.  Of course, we can blame the defense all we want for the slow start, but the offense wasn’t making them look good.  Turnover differentials of -2, -1, 0, -2, -3 in those first five games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Miami.  Record: 1-4.

The offense fixed itself from that point on, or at least their turnovers became more contextually explainable and less maddening.  The defense, it never improved.

We got a glimpse of what the Texans defense COULD be when the 13-1 Tennessee Titans came to town, and the Texans defense held them to 12 points.  Even in that game, first and second down efforts were lacking throughout, but some tough stands on third and fourth down, as well as deep in their own territory in an otherwise impressive and completely shocking one run victory.

But the defense never got back to that level in the final two games, which included a loss in the Oakland Coliseum before returning home to knock the Bears from the playoffs.

No one here thinks the Texans are a bad team, but where was the defensive improvement?  If you squint really hard, it’s still not there.  This unit is no better or worse than it was in 2007, 2006, 0r 2005.  Remember the collapse of the defense that caused Dom Capers to get fired at the end of the 2005 season when his team lost 14 games?  Yeah, uh, the defense has not improved one iota under Kubiak and his multiple coordinators.  The Texans have defended 2nd receivers and tight ends well each of the last three years, while struggling against 1st and 3rd receiving options, as well as running backs.

The Texans are changing the defensive scheme this year, and while this would normally be cause for concern, it’s hard to fathom that anyone could use the Texans defensive personnel worse than it was used last year.  All the offseason additions did was set the run defense up for absolute failure; it was never all that bad in the two years prior.  Combine that with the fact that there was no trade-off in the passing game or on the pass rush, and the scheme was in big need of an upgrade.  At the end of the year, the Texans fired defensive coordinator Richard Smith and hired Frank Bush.

The first step will be to transition to more of a run focused defense, with the LE position now serving as an anchor for the line, and one of the DT positions being turned over to second year undrafted rookie DelJuan Robinson.  It’s impossible to overstate his importance to a defensive recovery this year.  The replacement of completely unhelpful players like Anthony Weaver and first round bust DT Travis Johnson should help.  Johnson may even settle in nicely as a part time player in the rotation.

One of the few things on the defense that Texans fans don’t have to freak out about is the “decline” in the sack production of DT phenom 22-year old Amobi Okoye from 5.5 as a rookie to 1.0 as a sophomore.  He did not have the peripheral passer “hurries” as a rookie to support a five and a half sack season, recording only 5 of those, but that number skyrocketed to 14 in 2008, with two fewer games played.  Look at it this way:

• Okoye, sacks plus hurries in 2007 = 10
• Okoye, sacks plus hurries in 2008 = 15

He’s still on pace to be a superstar in this league, and the Texans will have one of the best lines in the league.  He was also much improved against the run last year on a team that endured overall decline.  Here’s why DelJuan Robinson is critical: someone needs to take on the double teams against the run.  The Texans think he can do that.

Once again, the Texans think they have the right mix in the front seven, but even they have to be concerned about the secondary.  Dunta Robinson is the star, but he’s going to show up a few days before the first week of the NFL season, simply because he’s not obligated (contractually) to be there before.  His performance is critical, because Jacque Reeves is out, and Fred Bennett is best suited for a No. 2 role at this point in his career.  And, oh yeah, this team has nothing in terms of safeties, and hasn’t since the franchises’ first season in 2002.

A team with a lockdown corner on one side of the field can survive this situation, a team with two mediocre corners cannot.  And despite the clear improvement in the front seven, this is probably the story that will define the team.  If the right balance in the front seven gives the Texans a fighting chance, then this unit’s performance will decide if the Texans breakthrough or not.

It’s hard to determine what Gary Kubiak’s job security is like in Houston.  This will be his fourth year, he’s provided measurable improvement on one side of the ball, and absolutely no improvement on the other.  The good news is that it’s not like the Texans haven’t been adding pieces to their 4-3 scheme the whole time, but you’d have to think if there’s no defensive improvement, it’s going to be difficult for Kubiak to win 8 games for the third straight year.  He’s beaten the odds twice, now he needs to see some overall returns.

Texans Camp, Houston, TX

The camp battles here are all for depth.  Last year, the Texans started every player on it’s offensive line for 16 games and returns all five players.  And to think, that was the one unit in the league that was always good for one-liners.

Backup Fullback: Cecil Sapp vs. James Casey

Casey, who may not be able to make the roster at tight end because of an overload of players at the position, could slide in as a backup fullback, and play special teams while he works his way onto the field in packages, first on the goal line.

3rd Tight End: Joel Dressen vs. James Casey

Casey, who may make the roster at tight end if he can prove more valuable THIS year than the veteran Dressen, could see instant playing time on offense, and also on special teams.  Whoever is waived to make room for him, I think that will go a long way towards establishing his role this year.

Defensive Line: Stanley McClover vs. Travis Johnson

Johnson blew another chance to start last year, contributing to the collapse of the run defense.  That’s the part of the game that always has limited McClover, but as a situational pass rusher, having him makes more sense than having Johnson, in my opinion at least.

Linebacker: Buster Davis vs. Cato June

These guys were signed by the Texans for depth on the same day, but it looks like it’s coming down to one or the other for the last roster spot at linebacker.  June has the experience, but I think Davis is the favorite.  June doesn’t seem like a good scheme fit, and while both of these guys can run, June has historically struggled mightily against the run.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB Rex Grossman
• FB Vonta Leach
• LB Chaun Thompson
• LB Kevin Bentley
• S Nick Ferguson

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Indeed, no team was hotter or better in the 2007 playoffs than the New York Giants, and despite an injury and retirement on the defensive line that cost them two of their best pass rushers, no team in the 2008 regular season was better.

But all was not rosy for the Giants, as non-Burress related fissures began to appear in the team about the time they lost Plaxico Burress.  Regarding the receiver, Burress’ loss appeared to have an adverse effect on quarterback Eli Manning, but that’s not the whole story.  Burress’ value as a player is tied up in his ability to save poorly thrown balls and adjust coverages to account for his big play ability.  That’s valuable for sure, but he’s hardly a complete receiver.  He doesn’t catch enough balls thrown at him, and he’s kind of a lazy route runner.

Taking Burress out of the equation changed the kind of offense that the Giants were, and there was an adjustment period, but it didn’t make them any worse on offense.  Dominik Hixon stepped into Burress’ role and did relatively well in the intermediate zones, and would have done much better had he caught a long TD pass behind the Eagles defense that he dropped.  What did hurt was the pass protection: the Giants line started to struggle with power rushers in the last third of the year.  That carried over into the playoffs, and was no more evident than when Brandon Jacobs couldn’t gain a yard on fourth and one.

But the real issue that did the Giants in was the defense.  Whereas the offense cracked, the defense broke.  In weeks 1-11, the Giants allowed more than 300 yards of total offense in two games games (20%).  In weeks 12-17, the Giants allowed more than 300 yards of total offense in EVERY game.  Total yardage allowed is a often a misleading stat, but in this case, 300 total yards works as a good measure of defensive dominance, and the discrepancy before and after the Baltimore game is pretty convincing.

The Giants’ decided that the defense was the meal ticket, and they just kept signing and signing defensive front players until they realized that they ran out of free spots on the roster.  A defensive front that included two primary defensive ends and a three man defensive tackle rotation now features: DEs Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka, Dave Tollefson, and rookie Maurice Evans, and DTs Chris Canty, Fred Robbins, Rocky Bernard, Jay Alford, and Barry Cofield.  If there’s an irreplaceable piece among the bunch, it’s Tuck, but even a worst case scenario simply bumps Canty over about two shades on the line.  Tuck’s injury late in the year was a big deal to the playoff chances of this team, and Osi’s return to the starting lineup is just as much of  a boost as Tuck’s improved health.  Presented without additional analysis: the Giants also had a very competitive offer for DT Albert Haynesworth.

This is a team that will batter opponents with the pass rush, and won’t hesitate to send linebackers to create additional pressure when necessary.  Antonio Pierce and Danny Clark return, already two pretty good pass rush LBs, and for coverage, the Giants signed LB Michael Boley, who will give way to Bryan Kehl in week one after a one-game suspension to Boley.  Have to say, if the Giants had Haynesworth and Boley against the Redskins, it’s makes a dynamic difference in a game that now features no Boley, and Haynesworth on the Redskins.  Probably a decisive difference.

The secondary has one shutdown player in CB Corey Webster, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, and two developing talents in CB Aaron Ross, a 2007 first rounder who strayed from the expected development path last year (8.9 yards per pass, among leagues worst), and FS Kenny Phillips, a rookie in 2008 who performed just fine.  The last member of the secondary, SS Michael Johnson, is plenty adequate.  This is a very deep unit at the corners, and very thin at the safeties.  C.C. Brown is the first backup, and he couldn’t start in Houston.

The Giants are all but certain to have a top five defense this year.  But last year they won because they had a top five offense and a top three offensive line.  The Giants did not touch this unit in free agency, addressing the receiver position through the draft.  It’s incredibly likely that out of the 5 potential starters on their roster, plus the developmental receiver from Cal Poly Ramses Barden, Eli Manning will find a good two or three man WR corps to get the ball to, and TE Kevin Boss is not a bad safety blanket for him.  But here’s what could force the Giants hand into simplifying the offense: the arms race in the NFC East.

Last year, the Giants did a lot more 3 WR stuff than they had in the recent past, and it appeared to help Eli Manning, but the two fiercest threats to the NFC East title, the Redskins and the Eagles, are completely loaded on the defensive line.  In the interest of protecting Eli Manning, more blockers might be the best way to go.  That means less spread, less 3 WR, more two back stuff.  To me, that’s going to limit the development of the receivers, with Dominik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks splitting time, and Mario Manningham and Steve Smith splitting time.  Eli Manning’s performance is closely linked to how well his line sticks together, but there’s not a single wide receiver on the team that is worth a top 8 round fantasy pick.

So what do we have here?  We have a preseason division favorite, a team that enters with perhaps fewer holes than any other team in the NFL, and enough potential to fill even that one hole.  But the vaunted offense did not move the ball on the ground last year against the two teams they needed to: Washington and Philadelphia.  And so, it’s obvious that if the Giants are to win the division, Eli Manning is going to have to lead them to at least four wins in the division, largely on the strength of his own right arm and coverage-beating abilities.  There is no guarantee that the Giants end the season as either the best or second best team in the NFC East, only that they begin it as the team to beat.

Giants Camp, Albany, NY

There’s some serious issues that need to be decided in camp and the preseason for the Giants as they shape the back end of their roster.  This is the year the Giants will determine who the 2011 and 2012 Giants will be.

Third Quarterback: Andre Woodson vs. Rhett Bomar

The Giants opened a lot of eyes by paying Eli Manning $96.5 million for his valuable, but relatively replaceable performance, so this is a good chance to show the world that they can tell a quarterback prospect from a non-prospect.  Both of these guys were late round picks with NFL-caliber arms, but one of them was a successful quarterback with a quick release, and the other has a slow releases, can’t read coverages, holds the ball too long, and takes sacks and forces passes.  If you’re familiar with the Giants, you don’t need me to tell you which guy is which, if you’re not, I’ll probably write about this once the final cuts are made.

If the Giants make the wrong call here, that’s a second strike at the QB position in a single offseason, and probably not good for a team that needs its offense.  Not that anyone not named “Manning” is going to be taking snaps for awhile.

Wide Receiver: Sinorice Moss vs. David Tyree

Moss has been a disappointment in three seasons out of Miami, but has made small steps each year, and at this point, let’s wonder what David Tyree offers.  Actually, more than you think.  Before he was a super bowl hero, Tyree was a pro bowl special teamer.  Only problem, the Giants have since developed another pro bowl special teamer: LB Zak DeOssie.  It would be fascinating if a team put two former special team pro bowlers on the same coverage unit, but if Moss offers any sort of receiving value for this year, he’ll get the nod.

Tight End: Darcy Johnson vs. Travis Beckum

Beckum has a ways to go, but he was a third round supplemental draft pick, and that itself virtually guarantees him a spot on the roster.

Offensive Tackle: Adam Koets vs. Guy Whimper

Koets is a good backup lineman who should word at some guard this year as well as RT now that the team has drafted LT William Beatty in the second round, a great pickup.  Whimper is a mid-round draft pick who probably doesn’t offer enough future value to justify a roster spot.  Perhaps he can learn guard?

Guard: Kevin Boothe vs. Terrence Pennington

Boothe has been disappointing in his career with the Raiders and the Giants, but he may be the best option as a backup guard on the Giants.  They have the second best Guard duo in the NFC, so he only plays due to injury.

Defensive End: Dave Tollefson vs. Maurice Evans

Evans is another underclassman from Penn State who was a nice find for the Giants, as with all the free agent signings on the DL, adds a guy who can benefit from having all those vets ahead of him.  Tollefson is probably making the team as a backup either way, but if it truly comes down to Tollefson v Evans, I don’t see how you can jettison the talented rookie.

Outside Linebacker: Gerris Wilkinson vs. Bryan Kehl vs. Chase Blackburn

Bryan Kehl is making the team out of camp because they need him in week one, but he’s in this discussion because he’s an easy cut in the middle of the year.  Gerris Wilkinson, who looked like a breakout prospect in 2007, is very much on the bubble.  Kehl is versatile enough to play all three LB positions, but Wilkinson might be displaced by the drafting of LB Clint Sintim in the second round.  If he’s not in the future plans, he’s probably not in the present.  Blackburn was a nice find back in 2006, but he’s third on the depth chart at middle linebacker right now, and he’s got a tough climb to make this team.

Cornerback: Stoney Woodson vs. DeAndre Wright

The Giants took a gamble and kept their 5th CB spot open for a bunch of undrafted rookies, and early returns look like they’ve hit the jackpot.  Woodson and Wright look like NFL level players, and they’ll battle each other for a spot on the 53-man and one of the deepest cornerback units in the league.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB David Carr
• WR Mario Manningham
• TE Matthew Michaels
• DT Barry Cofield
• DT Rocky Bernard

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, 49ers

If you believe in momentum, you were given every reason to pick the Panthers to run through the NFC playoff field en route to Super Bowl 43 based on just how dominant they were down the stretch in the regular season.  I know I thought they would get at least through a game to the NFC Championship game, and I have no trust in the predictive value of momentum.

So how do we explain away what happened in Carolina when Kurt Warner and the Cardinals rolled into down for a divisional playoff game that, according to some, the Panthers barely had to show up for?  This was not a classic upset.  It wasn’t a game marred with underachieving play by the favorite, and a scrappy, heady effort from the underdog which they have to hold onto in nailbiting fashion.  This was a massacre.  The Panthers imploded from the first drive, and the Cardinals were fantastic the whole way threw.  Jake Delhomme threw a bunch of interceptions, committing 6 personal turnovers, and it could have been way worse.

But, it wasn’t completely out of character for either team.  This was a 12-4 team that lost it’s games, on average, by a very wide margin.  They were doubled up in Minnesota 20-10, they lost by 24 points in Tampa Bay, and by 17 in Atlanta.  As dominant as this team was for most of the year, they didn’t seal the division until the very last second of the last regular season game in New Orleans, and needed a comeback victory to do so.

But I think the biggest reason is that the Panthers just didn’t match up with the Cardinals very well.  Kurt Warner noted this after the week 8 regular season meeting between the two teams, a 27-23 Panthers victory at home in which the Panthers enjoyed one of their most efficient offensive days of the season.  Warner remarked that he was not ashamed of the effort and felt that his team was very close to beating one of the NFC’s elite teams.  There were some minor tweaks and injuries on Warners side of the ball that allowed the Cards to perform better on offense, but that’s semantics compared to the big story: in week 8, the Panthers were +1 in the turnover battle and posted a single game offensive DVOA of 31%.  In the playoff game, those numbers were -5 and -66% respectively (FOA 2009).  Most of that descrepancy were the Delhomme interceptions, but the interceptions themselves could be considered part a product of the complete domination of the day by the Cardinals defense.

If you count the playoff game, the Panthers were +1 in turnover differential on the season, which is completely different from being +6 over 16 games.  In this sense, the playoff game was very much just another bad game.  But the Panthers hadn’t been in the playoffs since their unexpected mini-run in 2005, and who knows how long it will take them to get back again?  They are one of three teams in the division who graded out above average according to a simple measure I like to use to grade teams in the preaseason called QDS (quality depth plus starters).  There’s nothing that differentiates them from either the Buccaneers or the Saints “on paper.”

This is the problem that Carolina faces: no competitive advantage.  With the news of Brett Favre’s return to the NFL with Minnesota, the Panthers have to face the toughest schedule in the division, and, oh yeah, they have to play the Cards again.  Their quarterback situation is formulaicly sound, in the sense that they have three players with defined roles: the veteran starter, the journeyman backup with starting experience (Josh McCown), and the third stringer who is the future of the franchise (Matt Moore).  The problem here is while the Pathers have a quarterback for all situations, it’s remarkable that not one of them is even average in his designated role.  Jake Delhomme is too careless with the football to be a quality NFL starter these days, although he can still find holes in coverages.  Josh McCown is not a great option as a backup, despite his starting experience, and Matt Moore may never amount to anything; scouting reports are conflicting.  Look at Dallas’ QB situation behind Tony Romo–you wouldn’t call that a good situation.  Same formula.  Only difference is where Tony Romo is a well above average quarterback, Delhomme is too often a major liability.

John Fox is a believer in momentum.  Or at least I thought he was.  When the team tried to fix it’s cap situation by awarding Jake Delhomme an additional $20 million in guaranteed money to defer his cap hit, it was time to wonder if management had lost their minds.  The Panthers don’t view Delhomme as a replaceable part in a machine run by Steve Smith and it’s #1 rated power running game, but isn’t that exactly what Delhomme is?  He’s a lot better than what he showed in the playoff game, but the epic struggles seem to be a product of the way Delhomme deals with relative failure, and while that’s not a factor that will keep you out of the playoffs, it’s a killer in a one and done type format such as the NFL postseason.  If the goal is to get to and win a super bowl, Delhomme is a part they can win with or without, unless he breaks down, in that case, then you can’t win with him.  Anyway, there’s now $20+ million riding on the fact that Delhomme can get the Panthers over the hump.

So what is the plan to stay at the top?  Hope everything just breaks your way again?  No, the Panthers will just rely on their power running game to keep them at the top of the conference as long as they can.  They feature two horses in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, both of whom figure to be among the rushing leaders in the NFL at the end of the year, although certainly their shared production will limit individual accomplishment.  And who could forget Steve Smith?  The most dynamic receiver in the game, sub 6′ 2″ version.  He’s got to get his touches somehow, and Delhomme impersonates a good quarterback on plays where he gets the ball to his favorite target, and that’s often enough to keep them both afloat in the Panthers’ offense.

The offensive line is build around, mammoth tackles, versatile guards, and a single, heady Center.  It’s a terrific unit, but requires all, or at the very least 4 of it’s pieces to function at top levels for the line to max it’s true potential.  LT Jordan Gross and C Ryan Kalil are the superstars, but LG Travelle Wharton is a converted LT who had his best year last year.  RG Kendrick Vincent is underrated, and RT Jeff Otah is still developing.  The team has three tight ends that it likes, led by starter Jeff King.  All of them can block.  FB Brad Hoover may be the very best blocking fullback in the game.

The day-one loss of Ma’ake Kemoeatu as the nose tackle of the Panthers defense is, however, a devastating loss on the other side of the ball.  He, for lack of a better explanation, was the Panthers’ run defense last year.  Guys like Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson, Damione Lewis, and Thomas Davis can get after quarterbacks, but none of these guys are really “run defenders”.  Peppers is decent from a two way perspective, and Lewis at his most dominant can take over the interior, but Tyler Brayton is an average player who is better against the pass than the run.  Kemoeatu was THE guy on the interior who made you double him, or he made the tackle himself.  Now, Jon Beason is almost certain to have a tougher go against NFL running backs this year, Davis has never been good against the run, and the Panthers will go with veteran Na’il Diggs in an attempt to get some consistency against the run, but we might end up seeing a LOT of SS Chris Harris in the box.

We’ll see how this affects the passing game.  As mentioned, the pass pressure should be there once again.  The coverage unit did a very good job last year, but Ken Lucas is out, and he’ll give way to Richard Marshall who is perfect capable of a clean replacement, though he did not get a single start in 2008.  The pressure will be on second year FS Charles Godfrey, as he’s the man who stands between the Panthers and a below average defense marred by the deep bomb.  No pressure, kid.

Momentum aside, the Panthers team philosophy is actually quite obvious once you look past the quarterback situation.  In fact, this team is more or less what the media THINKS the Vikings are offensively.  As noted in the Vikings version of Roster Roundouts, the offensive issues run way deeper than Favre/no Favre.  Well, the Panthers’ issues do not.  When the protection schemes and execution are adequate, and the quarterback makes good decisions, the Panthers can pass and run on any team in the NFL.  When one of those things falls apart, you get a close game.  When they both fall apart, you get the Cardinals in the super bowl.

Panthers Camp, Spartanburg, SC

There’s a battle amongst the undrafted and young wide receivers to be the 5th receiver on this team, but there’s too many names involved to make a call.  Instead, I’ll focus on a few battles on the defensive side.

Defensive Tackle: Corvey Irvin vs. Lorenzo Williams vs. Marlon Favorite

There’s a lot of guys who aren’t household names here, and the Panthers are nearly certain to make a transaction for a veteran DT to replace Ma’ake Kemoeatu.  But that still leaves at least one open spot here for anyone to step forward and win it.

Outside Linebacker: Mortty Ivy vs. Anthony Heygood

Ivy, a rookie from West Virginia, has looked sharp in training camp, and leads Heygood right now in the battle for the last LB spot.

Cornerback: Dante Wesley vs. Captain Munnerlyn

This is interesting.  Munnerlyn, a 7th round pick from South Carolina, has not only played well enough to make the team, but he’s challenging for the nickelback role, as a rookie.  There could be a surprise cut at the position, but the long time fourth corner/special teamer Wesley might be the odd man out this year.  He’s a pretty good player, and won’t likely be out of the game for long.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Mike Goodson
• TE Dante Rosario
• DE Tyler Brayton
• LB Landon Johnson
• CB C.J. Wilson

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans

Looking at the 49ers’ breakdown and splits from last year, there’s legitimate reason to believe that they could be the worst team in the NFL this year.

This might be hard to fathom.  It’s a team that won 7 games last year.  Was it an “empty” 7 games?  I guess, in a way.  More than that, it’s a team whose signature accomplishment in 2008 was going from an embarrassing team in the first half of the season to a winner in the second half.  But while they did win 5 of 8 games following the bye, and the team did improve it’s level of play, they did neither accomplishment in a manner that would imply success in the near future.

The tricky thing is that the 49ers appeared to put everything together in a second half comeback over the Redskins.  If you happened to watch that game from start to finish, like I did, you probably headed into the offseason impressed with where the 49ers were headed.  Only, here’s the problem: there’s nothing to suggest that it was any more than just a well played half against a floundering former playoff contender who was losing it’s pass defense at the end of the year.  One more game, and maybe the 49ers would have put together two performances that indicated that Mike Singletary had found a breakthrough.

The problem with looking at the team’s improved win percentage since making the coaching change from Mike Nolan to Mike Singletary is that while you can see a clear and instant improvement in the team from that point, they didn’t reach a level where you would expect them to beat good teams.  To be clear: the first 6 wins for the 49ers last year came against the Seahawks, the Lions, the Rams, the Bills, the Jets, and the Rams again.  You know, there is not a team in the league last year (outside of maybe the 2-14 Chiefs and Rams, and the 0-16 Lions) who would have been claiming any sort of accomplishment with any of those wins individually.  Because the 49ers won all those games, that looks like an accomplishment.  But this team lost to the Seahawks by 21 points, the Saints by 14 points, the Cowboys by 13 points, and the Dolphins by 5 points, and then two close losses to the division champion Cardinals, which ended up costing them the division in hindsight…any other team in another division would consider all those opponents to be just as beatable.

So what do you call a team that goes 6-6 against it’s mediocre and poor competition in it’s first 15 weeks?  I’d call it a team that fits in with that caliber of competition.  The 49ers team that finished the year wasn’t a bad football team, but it was somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of teams that really weren’t super bowl contenders.  So the Washington victory did plenty to help out the perception of this team, because even though the Redskins were floundering at the time, they were, outside of the Dolphins, the best team that the 49ers had played in the Mike Singletary era.  And in the first half, the Redskins showed the ability to come out and beat down on the Niners, so the second half adjustments might have really been the start of something great for Singletary.  Ultimately, it was just a positive event at the end of another lost season, one that made this poor team look a lot more like a breakout candidate than it really is.

So, wait, this team’s not going to get worse in the offseason right?  They drafted Michael Crabtree, and while conventional wisdom is that he won’t be making an impact in the immediate given his month-long-and-counting holdout, he’s a steal at the 10th pick.  The young core of the team, your Joe Staley, your Frank Gore, Patrick Willis, maybe Vernon Davis, and even your talented vets like Justin Smith, Takeo Spikes, and Nate Clements, all should be getting better or at least holding the status quo.  How does it figure that the Niners might be the worst team in the league this year?

The offense is truly, legitimately, in trouble.  There’s no savior on this offense: Frank Gore is as good as he’s ever been and the Niners offense has been as bad as they’ve ever been.  Niners fans will like what I have to say about Gore: in a true vacuum, he’s the second best running back in the NFL.  He’s better than Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Portis, Steven Jackson, Jones-Drew all of them when you consider his blocking, receiving, and ability to covert first downs on power runs, only Ronnie Brown brings more to the table in my opinion as a complete player this year.  But Gore could probably rush for more yards in a vacuum than he could with the Niners.  It’s a power blocking OL with one true power piece, LT Joe Staley, who was the draft equivalent of former Pitt and current Carolina Panther RT Jeff Otah a year early.

There’s nothing on the outsides except developmental prospects and a quietly productive veteran who doesn’t command the other team’s top corner anymore (Issac Bruce).  Crabtree was drafted to change that, but he’s not in camp yet, and probably won’t be able to put together significant playing time as a first-year receiver.  Bruce might make this team, but even if he does, it’s Jason Hill and Josh Morgan who will be asked to break down opponents man coverage schemes.

Quarterback Shaun Hill is a good passer against zone coverages, but he’s the worst combination of passer for a team that has weapons that scream “TAKE WHAT THE D GIVES YOU.”  He’s just patient enough to convert a bunch of downfield throws before forcing the one questionable pass that kills the drive.  He’s a zone coverage killer on a team that doesn’t match up well in man coverage.  He offers you no downfield passing ability outside the numbers.  All of these factors make Hill a useful fantasy pickup when he plays the Lions, Rams, and Falcons this year.  Outside of those four games, I expect the 49ers passing offense to be a complete non-factor this year.  Big play ability could come in the form of TE Vernon Davis, but seriously, how long do you have to wait on an athletic tight end to become a downfield receiver before you change his role?  Davis might be at or past that point already.

Of the aforementioned young receivers, only Josh Morgan featured a yards per catch figure of better than 14 yards, though Dominique Ziegler is a small-sample size hero who could earn a bigger role, especially if Crabtree is delayed any longer.  Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, and Issac Bruce are all good scheme fits in a run-first, run-second, hope-third offense.

The defense is not without hope, but even so, may not be very good.  What you have is one superstar who plays a premium position (just like the offense), a decent supply of above average veterans at every level, and then the rest of the defense is a decent mix of developing prospects (Kentwan Balmer, Reggie Smith, Manny Lawson), and gaping holes across the board, at OLB, CB, S, and NT.  It’s not a great defense, but a career year from a guy like Clements, and an improvement in the run defense, and you have a defense capable of replicating last year’s 7-9 record, at least given a compliant offense.  The star, Patrick Willis, is already one of the two or three best linebackers in the NFC, and he and Takeo Spikes create a nice interior LB tandem that can excel at read and react defensive plays.  That skill, combined with top coverage and even an acceptable pass rush makes an average to above average defense, but the 49ers are a team with mediocre coverage units–terrible in deep coverage–and no pass rush whatsoever.

And so, with a much different schedule this year, and a roster that doesn’t seem improved over last year but in a couple of minor places, the 49ers stare another losing season right in the face, as Mike Singletary tries to establish himself as a true NFL coach.  Next year, the 49ers have 2 first round draft picks, will presumably have Crabtree under contract (now just a 95% certainty), and will probably have a different quarterback under center, and will work on building something steady.  For now, avoiding embarrassment would be a good start to this season, though, if the best days for this franchise aren’t in 2010 and beyond, well…”second best organization in the bay area!” is not much of a marketing slogan.

49ers Camp, Santa Clara, CA

There’s probably more uncertainty in the defensive back seven than anywhere else on the team, but outside from the quarterback battle that Alex Smith can’t win, the offense features the single most intriguing story of training camp in my mind.  And no, it has nothing to do with Michael Crabtree.

3rd Quarterback: Nate Davis vs. Damon Huard

I find no third quarterback battle in the NFL this year to be more intriguing, probably because Graham Harrell did not get an NFL offer.  Nate Davis has all the tools of a franchise quarterback, but he dropped to the fifth round due to generally low interest in him.  The 49ers, presumably, had Davis more highly rated than most other teams did, and took him when there was a chance that he could have gone to them undrafted.  Damon Huard was a very early free agency signing from Kansas City, and San Francisco is probably the last stop on his career (he’s 35).  Huard has a future in coaching, but if they force Davis to the practice squad just to fit him in, it probably says a lot about the delusional mindset of the team.  Davis could pass Alex Smith on the depth chart in the middle of this year, and possibly see some playing time at the end of the year…as long as he wins this battle out of camp.

Linebacker:

The Niners are about 9 deep with NFL quality linebackers, so I won’t deem any of them “likely to be cut”; they could keep all nine.  But with 4th round pick LB Scott McKillop in the fold, veteran LB Jeff Ulbrich has a tenuous hold on a relevant role in the defense, and guys who are phased out of the defense at this age don’t tend to re-invent themselves as special teamers.  At the outside linebacker spot, watch for former Bengals supplemental draft pick Ahmad Brooks, who is getting a second chance to show he can play within his second chance as a professional football player.  He’s a highly touted player out of college who had character concerns and just hasn’t made a dent yet.  He’ll battle OLB Jay Moore for playing time.

Defensive back: Donald Strickland vs. Shawnte Spencer vs. Dashon Golston

The 49ers ran through about every nickelback imaginable last year as a part-time starter last year, only to find out that, in fact, none of these players are capable of being a starter.  Up to two of these three guys will find themselves back in the fold this season, but with undrafted free agents looming, I’ll set the “minimum” roster inclusion of this type of player at 1.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Michael Robinson
• WR Issac Bruce
• OT Adam Snyder
• LB Jeff Ulbrich
• S Mark Roman

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles

No team in the NFL last year won more games than the Tennessee Titans, and it came from such an unlikely source: the Titans were a playoff team in 2007, and yet, not one person (myself included) who is not partial to the team thought that their “arrow” was pointing up.  The assumption was that the Titans would drift into obscurity, and that assumption couldn’t have been more wrong.

There were circumstances that changed very early in the year.  The quarterback changed before the end of the first game in what ended up being a very poor offensive performance that was a win over the Jags anyway, when Kerry Collins replaced Vince Young.  The switch was permanent, and more shockingly, successful.  The other major factor that powered the Titans was that the AFC South was far more mediocre than anyone thought.  The Colts started 3-4, the Texans’ managed a baby step that didn’t make a difference in their record, and the Jaguars went from 11-5 to 6-10.

But while the rest of the division can be credited for leaving the door a crack open, credit the Titans for busting through to win it.  Last season was no fluke.

Ah, to be bullish on the Titans again.  Unfortunately through two preseason games, we’ve seen Kerry Collins look less like he did last year and more like he has his whole career, we’ve seen Vince Young…well, I’m still not sure exactly what we’re seeing from Vince Young, but I’m told its going to result in a super bowl win and hall of fame induction.  Given his ability to snatch the rookie of the year award without doing anything of note, we’ll file away his prediction as simply, “unlikely.”  And we’ve seen Patrick Ramsey make a very good case that he’s the best quarterback on the roster, though, he’s likely just making the case to himself.

As long as the Titans are going 3 deep with great runners though–and it looks like they’ve hit yet again with Michigan St. RB Javon Ringer–they’ll be able to squeeze out enough production from their skill positions to have an effective offense behind their strong offensive line.  Except, you know, that having that offensive line is far from established, and the fact that the line was great last year guarantees nothing this year.

The strength of the offensive line is in it’s bookend tackle combination: Michael Roos, and David Stewart.  They also have veteran hall of fame bound center Kevin Mawae who makes all the line calls.  Except–wait–Mawae is already hurt.  His contribution to the team this year is seriously in question.  Even if he starts week one, who says he’ll be healthy enough to play in week three?  The left guard is Eugene Amano, who is much less established than Jacob Bell.  So you have some small fissures in the interior OL for the Titans, and then a flood of problems if either tackle misses significant time.

It’s an easy, and in my opinion–fair–way to sum up the Titans offense.  With that line intact, they’ve got something here.  With a struggling line, it’s a 3 & out machine with no real upside.

That’s the hidden side of the 2009 Tennessee Titans.  The not so hidden side is the mammoth piece in the middle of the defensive line that won’t be there this season, Albert Haynesworth.  A healthy debate broke out between Cris Collinsworth and Tony Dungy during the Hall of Fame game broadcast over whether the Titans should have sold the farm to keep Haynesworth locked in long term, but this decision was reached far before Haynesworth hit free agency.  The Titans were hardly in a situation where they had to keep Haynesworth.  They’ve done a top job building along the defensive front in recent seasons.

Even if we assume that Jevon Kearse is at the end of the road (he might be), their 1-4 DT depth is probably better than any other team in the league, including the New York Giants, if we can make the assumption that rookie DT Sen’Derrick Marks is competent.  Once they lost Albert, they signed Tampa Bay DT Jovan Haye, a top player in his own right who would have been a poor fit in Tampa’s new scheme.  The ultimate test will be their numbers against the run, and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch’s pass rush numbers.  If the Titans decline in those areas, then it’s safe to say that they may have made the wrong decision on Haynesworth.

Still, that’s a tough investment for anyone to make, even for the large market teams.  According to sources, Tampa Bay’s offer to Haynesworth exceeded Washington’s 100 million dollar offer, although, we’re not sure what that means in regards to the 4/48 relevant portion of the Haynesworth contract.  In Washington, Albert gets $12 million a year for the first four years of the contract, and then there’s essentially three individual one year options at an average of $17.3 million per year.

I’ll point out that if there’s a strike year in 2011, the Redskins still owe Albert Haynesworth $41 million out of the $48, so you can see how small-market/large-market economics played into the Titans decision here.  For the Redskins, $41 million for 2+ years of Haynesworth is a hefty price tag, but for another franchise, it’s a deal breaker.  It’s the kind of deal that could affect the team’s position on the upcoming CBA negotiations.  There’s too much at stake to a mid market team at that price.

But Albert is the best DT in the game in the prime of his career, and you cannot directly replace that production.  With a d-line rotation penciled in as the solution, the linebackers inherit most of the responsibility for keeping this defense at the top of the league.  Earlier today, I talked about the Eagles’ linebackers, and how as they undergo a coordinator change, how that whole unit will be on the hot seat.  It’s not the same effect in Tennessee because Jim Schwartz is a macro-level blitzer, who would try to beat you based on your long-term weaknesses as advertised by statistics.  Jim Johnson was a guy who had a feel for breaking down pass protections as games went on, a micro-level blitzer.  The Titans have better linebackers than the Eagles do, but they’ll be on the hot seat none-the-less.

Here’s the big problem for the Titans defense: they aren’t over-talented in the secondary like their defensive ranking would have you think.  They have a top corner in Cortland Finnegan, and they have an excellent breakout prospect at safety in Michael Griffin.  Now, second corner was very much a position that was protected by the scheme, as on most teams, Nick Harper would be a fringe nickelback.  On the Titans, he’s an unquestioned starter for a fourth straight year.  Chris Hope is a pretty good safety, but he’s not the kind of player you would assume would be a starter on a top defense.

So it begs the question as to if this Titans team can produce a top defense without Haynesworth, considering that the unquestioned best unit on the team remains it’s defensive line.  Barring an unforeseen explosion from a player on the defense besides Michael Griffin, it’s more or less impossible to visualize a scenario in which the Titans defense improves or even matches it’s level from the last two seasons.  It would probably involve an unsustainable career year or two, and I’d be back here doing this song and dance next year.

As for the division, well, it looks tough yet again.  The Colts are my early pick to rep the AFC in the super bowl.  The Jaguars figure to rebound offensively, if not defensively.  And while I haven’t addressed the Texans yet, I’ll point out that the 3-loss Titans, who lost one of those games against the Colts in a backups vs backups derby, were 1-1 against the Texans last year.  They went 4-2 against the division, but without improved play, that can easily become 2-4.

So seeing the Titans back to the playoffs is a tough call that I’m not willing to make, but this is still one of the best drafting organizations in the NFL, and they aren’t going anywhere in the hierarchy of AFC teams long-term.  The 2009 Titans are a middle of the road AFC team whose schedule quirks give them 13 games against teams that legitimately expect to be playoff contenders, exceptions to the Rams, 49ers, and Bills.  A similar road ended up working pretty well for the 2008 Steelers, whose schedule ended up way softer than expected when the Browns and Bengals collapsed early on, but got their offense together in time for a playoff run and eventually, a super bowl win.  The Titans can hold out hope that by building their team the right way, when the inevitable unexpected events happen to shake up the AFC playoff picture, they’ll end up in January again, but they aren’t shaking up like an elite team this season.

Titans Camp, Nashville, TN

Part of being a team that values day two of the draft as a cheap way of finding loads of talented players who can help the team, as soon as they distingulish themselves from their peers is that camp becomes very important in determining the roster.  Good thing Jeff Fisher calls the shots.

Wide Receiver: Chris Davis vs. Paul Williams vs. Mark Jones

I’m hearing that the team really likes Mark Jones as a kick returner and would like to find a place for him now that Chris Carr is departed for Baltimore,  but he has less value as a fifth receiver than either Williams or Davis.

Tight End: Jared Cook vs. Alge Crumpler

I think that there’s a real sense that the Titans could keep all four of their tight ends, but there could also be a surprise cut in the works.  Or, you know, a real surprise since as the teams “franchise player”, Bo Scaife’s one-year contract is completely guaranteed.  I’m not sayin…

Offensive Line: Mike Otto vs. Fernando Velasco vs. Jason Murphy

Ninth offensive line battles are for your future left guard.  Sometimes.  Mike Otto is a tackle who has the best shot, but Velasco and Murphy have been working with the second team as opposed to Otto, who is a third team offensive tackle.  So this is wide open.

Defensive End: David Ball vs. William Hayes vs. Larry Birdine

Hey, this is a team effort, and there’s room on the roster for all of you.  Larry Birdine is probably the one of these three who is most likely to be cut, but he’s not just some camp scrub in Tennessee, he’s got a legitimate chance to force out a veteran.

Defensive Tackle: Kevin Vickers vs. LaJuan Ramsey

Vickers will have his hands full staving off the USC product, LaJuan Ramsey,  once thought to be a first day draft talent, for the teams’ 5th DT spot, should they decide to keep 5.

Outside Linebacker: Gerald McRath vs. Josh Stamer

Stamer is listed ahead of McRath on the depth chart, but the undersized So. Miss product is a great talent, and I don’t see the Titans letting him get away unless they decide he can’t play special teams at this level.

Cornerback: Cary Williams vs. Tanard Davis vs. Ryan Mouton

Mouton is probably got the best chance to win the 5th CB spot, but the Titans also need a 4th CB.  Cary Williams is in the lead on the depth chart, but Tanard Davis has the cover skills to challenge for an on-field role in the defense as a rookie.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Chris Henry
• WR Lavelle Hawkins
• TE Bo Scaife
• DE Jevon Kearse
• CB Nick Harper

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers

The three people most responsible for the success or failure of the 2009 Eagles are head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Donovan McNabb, and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott.  Fascinating still, are the names I did not include in that list.  Essentially, the most publicized off-season NFL acquisition (sorry, Jay Cutler), the most dynamic all-around offensive weapon in the NFC, the third receiver drafted in this years NFL draft, the pro bowl NFL lineman who missed last season with psychological issues, and the 2008 NFL blown blocks leader turned franchise tackle acquisition are relative after-thoughts on this team.

If the Michael Vick addition solidified one thing, it’s that the 2009 Philadelphia Eagles are a complete circus.  S0 what’s different between them and the 2008 Cowboys who might be viewed as the disappointment of the last decade?  Have the Eagles made moves to become the very team they crushed to end last season?  Well, you see, that depends on those three people most responsible for keeping this train on the tracks.

The Eagles are just as highly touted coming off an NFC Championship game appearance as Dallas was a year ago.  Like their NFC counterparts, they’ve valued talent over reputation in the offseason, leading to disproportionately high expectations.  This, however, is not a fundamentally flawed team like the Cowboys were.  They Cowboys were a “super bowl contender” whose best case scenario meant 2nd place in their own division and a playoff run.

The Eagles might be in the same situation, but the NFC East is unlikely to have a 12 win team this year.  It could happen, but if things break right, 10-6 with a strong divisional record could get the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  The Eagles are very capable of that this season.  But they can’t be a division favorite because for every high upside player they have acquired, there’s an equal football-performance related risk that keeps the team from improving their overall value as a preseason favorite.

Donovan McNabb can’t be only as good as the Eagles’ weakest link.  He had a strong 16 game season last year for the first time in four years, but given how the Eagles went from on the verge of replacing him to re-investing in him in the off-season; and it’s not like we know anything about McNabb’s abilities now that we didn’t know after a tie and a stinker of a half in Baltimore, followed by a benching.  McNabb doesn’t exactly have competition this year, but it’s not hard to conceive that the short, sprinty one or even Kevin Kolb getting a lot of reps in camp next year if McNabb squeezes through 11 games of mediocre play this year.

Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott is the one who could be taking all the blame if the defense falls too far from it’s spot in the top 5 last season, but the absolute worst thing that could have happened to him did when he lost youn-talented LB Stewart Bradley for the year.  It’s an injury the Eagles weren’t prepared to weather, and combined with a conscious decision to work with scheme specific late-round LBs in the Jim Johnson (rip) era, the Eagles would have found the sledding tougher this year with or without Bradley, but now the Eagles feature “Chris Gocong and the replacements.”  The Eagles defense will be an interesting case study, because they are two excellent defensive units (particularly the D-Line) in front and behind a potential disaster of a unit.  McDermott is not Jim Johnson, and he’s very understaffed at a critical area in most defenses that Jim Johnson made a very fungible position.

Andy Reid is completely and utterly responsible for making Michael Vick a positive factor on this team and not a negative.  There’s significant management needed for this situation, and even if we assume that as a given, Reid might not be the best coach for using Vick in a way where he both complements McNabb and helps the Philadelphia Eagles.  Now, it appears to be too late to go back, so Reid has to find a way to use Vick to get further than they did last year, without alienating McNabb.  No pressure, Andy.

The timing on the Vick move is what might do it in.  Vick, ideally, would have found a team who was already bound to do better than it did last year, but for the Eagles, that’s not so certain.  My thought’s on Vick have been dumped here, and I note there that Philly is a good situation for Vick.  A great situation, actually.  I’m just not sure the feeling is mutual.

Regardless of whether or not the Eagles succeed or fail, the credit or blame lies with those three people.  Outside of their control, however, is the variance that every team has to deal with, and in the Eagles case, it just happens to be a lot more volatile.  The starting tackles this season are projected to be Shawn Andrews and Jason Peters.  Andrews, if he can stay on the field, will excel, although if injuries force him to move back inside, it’s not a good sign for the overall value of the Eagles’ OL.  There’s no question that Peters has the physical tools to be the best LT in the game, but he hasn’t played like that since 2006, and who knows what the Eagles are getting.  Well, at least they’re getting a healthy player, because it doesn’t look like they’ll have much help from the other four spots on the OL.

I think rookie RB LeSean McCoy will end up being the offensive rookie of the year, but I think that may come at the expense of Brian Westbrook, who is still a dynamic weapon, but no longer an elite runner.  I don’t project good things for rookie WR Jeremy Maclin.  I don’t think he’ll make much of an impact this season.  The Eagles are thin at tight end behind Brent Celek, which is something they’ve taken steps to avoid over the last three years or so.  In a stunning twist, the Eagles are now deep at skill positions, and weaker on the lines.

It’s a good, potentially a  great offensive team.  But that’s the thing: if this isn’t the 2004 Eagles on offense, they’re not strong enough on defense or special teams to overcome the gap.  They’re one of maybe four or five teams in the NFL that is above average in all three facets of the game, but at the end of the day, it looks like 9 or 10 wins for the Eagles, and that’s sure to disappoint those who really, really wanted to have a bandwagon to jump on.

Eagles Camp, Bethlehem, PA

The Eagles have actually developed some camp battles due to injury.

Backup Quarterback: Kevin Kolb vs. A.J. Feeley

It’s unlikely that the Eagles will keep 4 QBs, so Vick’s arrival likely means the end of the road for Feeley.  Feely might survive if Kolb’s injury is bad enough to land him on IR.

Offensive Tackle: King Dunlap vs. Winston Justice

For Justice, this is the end of the road unless the Eagles think he’s a game ready offensive tackle in his third year.  No players’ fate is more linked to his preseason performance than his.

Guard: Mike McGlynn vs. Mike Gibson vs. Fenuki Tupou

Three guys are battling for the 9th lineman spot on the Eagles OL, and it’s probably McGlynn’s to lose.  He was drafted ahead of Gibson in 2008, and the Eagles like Tupou, but probably as a year one practice squad player.

Cornerback: Jack Ikegwunou vs. Trae Williams

Ikegwunou has an impressive rap sheet, and was injured for all of his rookie year; the Eagles knew both of these things when they took him, and yet, here he is.  Hard to think the Eagles would invest this much in a shady character and not put him on the roster.  He’ll make it over the talented but raw Trae Williams.

Starting Free safety: Quintin Demps vs. Sean Jones

Demps is currently listed atop the depth chart, and probably would have challenged Brian Dawkins for playing time even if they had been able to keep him.  Sean Jones came over from Cleveland when Dawkins left, and he’s looked good thus far.  Demps is a good kick returner, so Jones might get a tiebreaker based on the special teams ability of his opponent, but I’m not seeing a tie.  Demps has been the heir apparent since he was drafted, and if he does just fine in the preseason, he will start and play more than half the time in week one.

Surprise cuts?

• WR Hank Baskett
• G Todd Herremans
• C Nick Cole
• DE Chris Clemons
• LB Matt Wilhelm

Joe Posnanski on baseball’s worst contracts:

2. Jose Guillen (Kansas City Royals). One more year at $12 million. I will admit that I’m grading this one on a curve … the Royals, more than other teams, cannot afford titanic blunders like this one. Everything about this deal baffled from the start. The Royals talked about wanting to get players who get on base — Guillen doesn’t and never has. The Royals talked about wanting players who are leaders — Guillen had played for nine different teams and was suspended for the playoffs by the Angels for inappropriate conduct. The Royals talked about players with good character — Guillen was facing a drug suspension when the Royals signed him (he was given amnesty).

But more than anything: Guillen was almost 32 when the Royals signed him to a three-year, $36 million deal … and he’s precisely the sort of player who starts going wildly downhill at that age. And … so he has. Guillen led the team in RBIs in 2008 despite having a pretty bad year. This year, he has been perhaps the worst everyday player in baseball. His power is gone — .371 slugging percentage — he can’t play the outfield any more and his quick bat (the one thing he always had) has slowed measurably. Funny thing is, I have found him to be quite a likable guy, and he has been brutally honest in his own self-assessment. “If I suck then I suck,” he says. “And I suck.” Probably not worth $36 million, but entertaining still.

The more you have invested in Jose Guillen, the less entertaining he is, trust me.  But what Posnanski says in defense of his likability, I think that’s a good place to build a case for keeping Jose Guillen.

Baseball contracts represent sunk costs to the teams that write them.  They are different from football in this aspect.  Vastly different.  18 million dollars of difference, in Guillen’s case.  But the short version is this: the Royals have no chance to recoup any of that money unless they can find another team willing to pay that contract.  Any chance of that happening ended this year.  So, with respect to the 2010 season the Royals save no money by choosing to not bring Guillen back as they do by choosing to do so.

So that would be a good reason to keep Guillen.  He’s not hurting you to be there, and you’d have to pay him just as much to make him go away, and you’re the Royals, so why not bring him back.  Guillen has never played three consecutive years in his career with the same team, and appears to like it in Kansas City, as much at least as Jose Guillen likes anything, and you’re not considering having him past 2010 anyway, so it makes sense to keep him.

That’s the common argument for.  Except one problem: he most certainly is hurting your team.

At age 33, Jose Guillen is too much of a defensive liability to play anywhere on the field full time.  He’s still got that hose for a right arm that has always been his signature defensive weapon, but even that’s been below average this year because he’s so limited with his range that he can’t get to balls quickly enough to crowhop and get the ball to the proper base in time.  Injuries have played a factor, certainly, but his injury history isn’t likely to improve as he gets older.

Even worse, Guillen’s power has completely disappeared, and along with that, the way pitchers pitch him has completely changed.  No longer is he a guy who you have to be able to throw your offspeed pitches to; pitchers with a strong fastball can get Guillen out rather effortlessly.  He offers nothing with the bat, and offers nothing with the glove.  In other words, he’s worse than worthless and you can’t justify bringing him back at any cost next year.  He has to go.

Both sides of the debate have merit.  But the Royals need to make a decision that could shape the direction of their 2010 team, and they need to be right.

Look at Gary Sheffield: he’s hitting .286/.381/.472 for the New York Mets this year at a cost of 400k after the Detroit Tigers outright released him from their organization.  The Tigers, of course, owe Sheffield nearly $13 million for this season, the last of his deal.  The .472 slugging pct. is right in line with what Sheffield has done the past 4 years, save last year in Detroit when he hit .225/.326/.400.  Sheff’s walk rate has actually decreased from his Detroit days, and the power hasn’t so much reappeared as much as the batting average has just returned to a more expected level.  Sheffield would have been completely overpaid in Detroit at $13 million, but that’s never been the point.  The point is, that money was a sunk cost, Sheffield gets on base, and though he’s not even an average corner outfielder at this point in his career, Fangraphs estimates his value to the Mets at about $2.9 million above replacement.  If Sheffield was still on the Tigers, he would be their second most valuable outfielder, and in a bit of irony, would be a good excuse to not give Magglio Ordonez the opportunity to have his $18 million option vest later this year based on playing time.

Guillen’s situation is not nearly as clear cut.  He was walking more often than ever before this year, but even if his batting average and consequent slugging percentage were to rebound, Guillen could have his best offensive year as a Royal at age 34.  But he’d probably fight injuries the whole way, he’d offer no value defensively, and back to the Sheffield comparison for a second, Gary never lost the ability to hit a fastball.  In that down year in 2008, he just had an abnormally rough year against the breaking ball.  Since joining the Royals, Guillen has not been a good fastball hitter, an anomaly from the rest of his career.  Unless he rediscovers the ability to hit fastballs, it’s hart to see any rebound as a hitter for Guillen.

I think the key to this decision for the Royals is whether or not they can first replace Guillen in right field.  As a part time player, Guillen’s improving walk rate can be viewed as a positive, and he’s shown the ability to post an on base percentage in the .330-.350 range in the past, which is valuable to the Royals.  But it’s different if the Royals feel like they need to put Guillen in the field to justify his value.  If they look at their roster, and don’t see where he fits in on their bench, it’s probably better to cut bait right now.  If you don’t let him out into the field but once in a blue moon, however, he doesn’t cost you runs in the field, and then the Royals might be able to get a positive value hitter at the DH position.  Maybe.

A lot of this depends on their decision to bring back Mike Jacobs, who is still under team control, but could cost in the $3 million vicinity.  Without Jacobs, there’s probably a spot on the bench for Jose Guillen.  Jacobs would be “cheaper” than Guillen, and by a lot, but he also represents money that the tight-budgeted Royals are not yet on the hook for.  Dropping a player who does nothing but hit pop ups and fly balls is an easy way to reduce the payroll.  On the other hand, he has more upside than Guillen as a hitter, although, probably not worth a marginal $3 million dollars.  Jacobs’ bat might not be as good as Guillen’s currently, but it’s expected that he might post another .500 slugging season in his career whereas Guillen is probably done with that type of production.

But Guillen is a right-handed bat, his contract is already paid, and the Royals have only left handed hitters to bring up next year (save for a potential Guillen replacement, Jordan Parraz).  So given the situations surrounding this contract, it’s not all that hard to envision a situation where Guillen does play out his contract with the Royals.  But as a franchise that’s trying to get on the right track, it’s important that they carefully consider all their options, and if they can find a cost effective solution that offers better performance than Guillen, that they make sure to take advantage of an opportunity when it presents itself.

Yes, even if that means that another AL Central team will cut an eight figure check to a player no longer on the roster.