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Roster Roundouts didn’t forget the New England Patriots.  I just saved them for last.

Does that make them the best?  Not necessarily, although QDS is quite a fan.  No team scored higher than a 16, and two teams reached that mark in the metric: the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots.  But what’s more surprising is that it prefers the defense to the offense.

QDS doesn’t know that Tom Brady is better than, say, Eli Manning, it views both of them through the same “quality QB” lens.  If that’s any reason to believe that the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots will make the AFC their own personal playground this year, then I fully support that notion.

What’s remarkable to the Patriots compared to the other elite teams is that their roster is ridiculously loaded at every position.  There’s a certain set of qualifications a team has to meet at a position to have “quality depth”, and the Pats meet it a very respectable 5 different positions, one of the key factors is a player’s track record.  Well, the Patriots have a bunch of highly touted young players such as Brandon Merriweather, Patrick Chung, and Pierre Woods whom they will rely on, and none of them qualified due to limited playing time.  With a good year in player development, the Patriots could be better than in 2007.

The defense wasn’t very good last year, you might have heard.  Down the stretch in 2007, it didn’t help the cause either.  The Patriots completely overhauled their cornerback position, bringing in two very good starters: Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden.  Nothing like players with a proven past for a good coaching staff.  They’ll be supported by two second year players, Jonathon Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley, and a rookie, Darius Butler.

They’ll be backed up by a young, proven safety in James Sanders, and Merriweather, who will be on a short leash.  The Patriots have been carefully phasing out their veterans on defense over the last two years or so: Rodney Harrison and Mike Vrabel this year, Tedy Bruschi next, and who knows about Richard Seymour, now in his 8th season (and a contract year).  At corner, they went with the stopgap choice in Springs, and he’s about as good as it gets while still qualifying as a stop gap.  Bodden is nominally a stop-gap, in the fact that his contract is only one year, but he’s a very young 27, and is going to get paid next year elsewhere.

The point is, the Patriots have no depth issues on defense.  The only way a problem arises is if a player like Springs, or Bruschi drops off a cliff and becomes a complete liability, in which case the team can replace him with a plan B option, but then is playing multiple players ahead of predicted roles.  It’s a completely loaded roster from the offensive line to the defense, to the tight ends and running backs.

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The place where the Patriots might actually struggle in 2009 is in the passing game, believe it or not.  This is not to predict that the Pats should expect to pound the rock 35 times per game to make up for a passing deficiency.  This is very much still an air it out team with Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker leading the charge.  But of those players, only Welker is theoretically still in the middle of his prime.  Brady is on the back-end of his, certainly something that his knee injury might have sped up, and Moss could begin the decline phase of his career within the next two seasons.

Brady’s knee is going to generate a lot of attention, probably more than it deserves, but it’s a serious issue.  For one thing, there’s hardly any margin for error when you’re always in the media spotlight, and while Brady has been effective, if not completely comfortable in the preseason, the Patriots offensive line has not helped his cause, and it’s possible that it might have an adverse effect on his performance.

The flip side of that coin is that Tom Brady continues to be, in my opinion, a remarkably overrated player.  He’s on anyone’s list of the best five quarterbacks in the game, and is probably one of the two best QBs of this decade, but you can’t call his 2007 season anything but a complete statistical outlier at this point.  Brady has never, ever come close to that kind of his production in his career before that.  The assumption that Brady should get credit for another season just like that in 2008 drives me a little crazy.  Granted, I feel bad for the guy for losing his opportunity to return to and win the super bowl, but Brady has to show to us that his record setting season where he averaged 3.5 TD’s per game wasn’t just catching lightning in a bottle for 10 weeks, and then Brady-ing it to the finish.  This is not a given on that gimpy knee by any stretch of the imagination.

The Patriots also have depth issues on the outside.  Undrafted WR Juilan Edelman has flashed the skill to back up Wes Welker in the slot, but the team is going with Joey Galloway as a starting receiver.  Galloway is 76 years old and last played well for Tampa in 2007.  This is not anybody’s idea of a solution to the loss of…Jabar Gaffney, mind you, but the depth behind him at WR is more frightening.

The Patriots traded a second day draft pick for Greg Lewis, in one of the more baffling, but yet, knowing-that-he-has-a-hand-picked-offensive-niche-already moves of the year.  3rd round pick Brandon Tate is on the roster, but he tore his ACL last year returning a punt for North Carolina against Notre Dame.  Basically, Randy Moss’ role on this team is completely irreplacable, and if the Patriots lose him, they go from a likely 13-win team to maybe a 9-10 win team.  That’s the difference between being a super bowl contender and a nominal division winner who is likely to get crushed in the playoffs by a better team.

Brady’s success depends heavily on Moss’ health, but at least he has a running game to lean on that he hasn’t had in years.  The Patriots will probably keep four TEs as opposed to three TEs and a fullback, and then they’ll have four running backs.  Three of which will be Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor.  That leaves 2006 first rounder Laurence Maroney on the bubble, but he could earn his keep by returning kicks for the Pats.  The Patriots offensive line is primarily concerned with keeping Brady clean, but these guy will enjoy opening up some large holes this year.

Overall, you would expect the Patriots to completely run through their schedule.  5 wins against the AFC East this year is hardly unreasonable.  They also get to play the Broncos, the Falcons, and the Bucs, and none of those teams figure to be able to run with them.  So we’re looking at a team that could get 8 wins handed to them by a simple gap in talent, and then against the quality opponents of the AFC South, and the Baltimore Ravens in inter-divisional play, they figure to be favored between 14 and all 16 games they play.  The Patriots always do well in big games, and unlike last season, there will be no games (such as the Chargers or the Colts) where they are major underdogs.  That means that, potential injury luck aside, the Patriots are again a major threat to win the super bowl, and are basically already playoff bound.

Pats Headquarters: Foxborough, MA

The Patriots never seem to have a lot of camp battles, but always seem to find the most intriguing players via superior scouting.

-QB Brian Hoyer out of Michigan State is just trying to make the team.  The Patriots backups are completely unproven in this league, which didn’t hurt all that much last year, but Hoyer knows that getting onto the field in the NFL is a two step process.  Making a roster is the supremely important first step, but even as a third quarterback for the Patriots, you’re not guaranteed anything except one year in that role.

-WRs Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, and Matt Slater all bring very different skill sets (all of which involve some PR/KR value) to a Pats team that is really looking to fill out it’s roster at a position where it is not deep at all.  Tate is a PUP candidate, and might be awarded Greg Lewis’ roster spot upon activation.  So if it comes down to Edelman and Slater, you have Slater’s kick return skills, best on the team, vs. Edelman’s value in the slot, a valuable buffer against a Welker injury.

-G Rich Ohrnberger is a rookie out of Penn State who had an impressive college career, but is on the bubble as a pro prospect.  If he could show value as a backup Center, it would exponentially increase his chances of making the roster.

-DT Darryl Richard from Georgia Tech is a mammoth nose tackle who is behind about three guys on the depth chart, including 2nd round pick Ron Brace.  For him, the key thing he needs to show in the final preseason games is the versatility to succeed in this league at defensive end.  If not, then he’s a practice squad candidate.

-Safeties Brandon McGowan and Ray Ventrone are former roster fillers on super bowl teams (McGowan was a rookie on the 2006 Bears, Ventrone on the 2007 Patriots) who are deadlocked with each other for the right to play on this super bowl contender.  McGowan seemingly has more to offer: he can start in a NFL secondary, but Ventrone is a very good special teamer.  McGowan’s special teams skills, or lack thereof, will likely decide this battle.  The Patriots love to be loaded at all positions, and having McGowan as a 4th safety is key.

Surprise Cuts?

• WR Greg Lewis
• TE Ben Watson
• OT Wesley Britt
• DT Mike Wright
• LB Tully Banta-Cain

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, 49ers, Panthers, Giants, Texans, Falcons, Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Redskins, Seahawks, Bears, Cowboys

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The Pittsburgh Steelers won the super bowl last year.  If this article was written by Jeff Chadiha, it would end there.

The Steelers were probably the favorite of the 12 teams who made the playoff field to win it, but considering that all 4 of the teams’ losses were to teams who made the postseason, it’s pretty fortunate that the Steelers road to the playoffs went the way it did.  If you assume a 50% probability for any game to be won or lost in the playoffs by any team in the postseason, there was a 7/8 probability that the Steelers would have had to face at least one of the Colts, Titans, Eagles, or Giants.  As it worked out, they got to play the Chargers and Ravens, who they had already beaten in the regular season, and the Cardinals in the super bowl, who that had not seen in 2008.

Favorable postseason schedule or not, the Steelers were not a surprise to win their division, nor to do well in the postseason.  It was a little surprising that they put it all together, as we generally don’t think of teams who get knocked out in the playoffs in the wild card round as preseason super bowl favorites: yet, in the AFC, the Titans and Steelers were the best two teams in the regular season this past year.  The Redskins and Buccaneers weren’t so lucky, although there was a time last year where those two teams looked like the class of the NFC.

The whole year, Steeler detractors were waiting for the other shoe to drop.  What would happen when someone FINALLY figured out the Steelers defense.  How would they be able to trust an offense that ranked in the 20′s in most categories to come bail out their super bowl hopes?

It didn’t hurt that the defense was dominant into the playoffs as well, but in what should have been a Steelers’ rout on paper, the Cardinals solved the Steelers defense late in the second half.  The difference in the game was one play; the James Harrison interception return for touchdown (the for touchdown is such an important part of that equation), and the final, game-clinching drive by Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes.

The Cardinals more than overcame the talent gap between the teams, and for every play the Steelers made in that game, the Cardinals had an equally impressive play.  But the Steelers benefited from leading the whole way until the final three minutes, and being able to drain the clock on a methodical drive to go win the game.  That was the ultimate test.  And maybe in an alternate dimension, that game ends differently.  But, with their backs against the wall, the Steelers won a game in a way they would not have prefered to, but have proved able.

It’s something for the Steelers offense to build on going into 2009, because last year’s effort simply isn’t going to cut it this time around.  The passing offense can’t wait until the last five minutes of every game to move the chains.  The rushing offense cannot be as painfully ineffective in power situations as it was last year.

The hope is that the latter issue can be solved by Rashard Mendenhall, the second year player out of Illinois who had his season cut short by injury in the season’s fourth week.  There’s concern about the legitimacy of Mendenhall pro prospects, just one season after his record-setting campaign in Champaign, he didn’t make much of a dent even before his injury.  Mendenhall’s skills are undeniable, but it’s really not a good sign when a player with one pro-prospect type year in college doesn’t do anything as a rookie in the pros.  For Mendenhall and his fans, a best case scenario involves his injury being just that, an injury, and he can hit the ground running so to speak this year.  1,300 rushing yards are not out of the question, but if he doesn’t win playing time with 3rd down abilities, it’s hard to imagine him getting even a single start.

The Steelers have an interesting issue, in that their biggest question mark going into the season is who they will have to start…in 2010.  The following players are free agents at the end of the season: RB Willie Parker, DT Casey Hampton, DE Brett Keisel, and S Ryan Clark, all starters.  The Steelers are theoretically limited in their ability to spend, even in an uncapped year, so Parker and Keisel might be the odd men out.  We’ve addressed what the Steelers would like to see from the running back position, so now they need to see rookie DE Ziggy Hood step up and flash some ability as a defensive end.

It’s not like the Steelers to be forced into making some changes, as the team usually beats the free agency system with contract extensions to it’s talented players.  In this sense, they are victims of their own success.  So much quality talent throughout the defense means that you have to choose to pay James Harrison over a guy like Keisel, or a guy like Polamalu over a guy like Clark, or James Farrior over Larry Foote.

The Steelers should be fine in the long run, but this years’ defense is thinner than the team is used to.  Lawrence Timmons will be stepping into the starting lineup finally, and he’s got all the talent in the world, but the team wants to see him improve the run defense.  The team lost corner Bryant McFadden in the offseason, and while they’ll be able to field a pair of very good corners, McFadden’s departure thins out the secondary to five good players: Clark and Polamalu at safety; Deshea Townsend, Ike Taylor, and William Gay at corner.  It’s not a defense that can suffer injuries like the Ravens did last year, and remain near the top of the league in all categories.

Given that, can the offense be expected to pick up the slack?  If Ben Roethlisberger is who we think he is, then yes, we can expect him to rebound from his performance last year.  His play in the playoffs was much more in line with who we believe he is, and less like the player he was for most of last year.  Secondly, Santonio Holmes did not make the jump as the third year receiver we all expected, but if the playoffs are any indication, he’ll make that jump to a top tier WR this year.  Holmes may never be an elite player, but he’s not the next Deion Branch either.  Hines Ward is probably staying right at this level of production for another 2-3 years, and it looks like the team found a keeper in WR Mike Wallace in the third round.  He’ll win the 3rd WR job if last year’s 2nd rounder Limas Sweed doesn’t win it, but it may only be a matter of time anyway.  The odds on Limas Sweed’s Steelers tenure with the Steelers outlasting Hines Ward’s is at even, and dropping every day.

The guy I like is unheralded second TE Matt Speath, who sees the field plenty already, and could replace Heath Miller in the lineup with absolutely no drop off in production.  Guys like Speath are the steals who will buffer against players like Mendenhall and Sweed not panning out, should both fail.

The Steelers have issues like any other team, and this team will not be a favorite to repeat as champs, but they actually have a schedule advantage over the Ravens.  The pitfalls could include a vastly improved AFC North this year, and a struggling offensive unit being unable to pick up for defensive drop-off.  The Steelers’ roster is still talent loaded, but not quite as deep, and being a preseason favorite means nothing come the season.  Yet, you look at the AFC North, and the Steelers are the easy pick, not because of who they have been, but who they are.

Steelers Headquarters: Pittsburgh, PA

As part of their organizational philosophy, the Steelers don’t view their undrafteds as roster longshots, so there’s quite a few with chances to be on the 53-man.

-RB Issac Redman has dominated in the preseason, probably the surprise of camp.  His questions have to do with his blocking or receiving, you know, those critical things that keep veteran RBs in the league and young ones out of it.

-WR Brandon Williams has looked good in camp, and might be a front-runner over Shaun McDonald for the 5th WR spot.  He was a third round pick of the 49ers in 2006, so he didn’t come from nowhere, but he didn’t play last year.  He’s never seen action on a team outside of the NFC West, so he becomes a developmental target on the Steelers.  The guy adds value as a punt returner.

-TE David Johnson, a rookie 7th round draft choice from Arkansas State, could join two mammoth tight ends at the position if he can bounce incumbent Sean McHugh from the 53-man roster.

-OT Jason Capizzi has suddenly become a favorite to make the roster as a backup tackle.  This is the way the Steelers have chosen to build up their OL, they fixed the starters last year, and they are trying to be patient in developing backups.  Capizzi might be verification of their strategy.

-C A.Q. Shipley was a 5th round draft pick who was anointed the center of the future in OTA’s, but his training camp hasn’t gone as planned.  The team has signed Alex Stepanovich to provide depth on the interior OL, which means that they’ll stick Shipley on the practice squad if he can’t shape up.

-CBs Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett are deadlocked in a battle with journeyman Keiwan Ratliff in an attempt to be the guy who wins Bryant McFadden’s spot on the active roster.  Lewis, from Oregon State, has the name recognition, and was the third round pick to Burnett’s 5th round pick.  The Steelers apparently couldn’t afford to miss, but now they just have to make the right call.

Surprise Cuts?

• G Trai Essex
• C A.Q. Shipley
• DE Travis Kirschke
• LB Andre Frazier
• CB Anthony Madison