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For all the daily rhetoric that the Cowboys generate–Jerry Jones famously said, “no publicity is bad publicity”–you can’t blame the media firestorm for sweeping the general public under the rug regarding the weaknesses of the 2008 Cowboys.  That’s a cop out.  Not “everyone else” thought the Cowboys were a likely super bowl contender.

Here are some other poor excuses for the Cowboys dropping to 9-7 last year: Tony Romo is a bad leader.   Terrell Owens divided the locker room.  Jason Garrett isn’t the offensive coordinator we thought he was.  Wade Phillips didn’t have control of the locker room.  The team couldn’t deal with adversity.

None of those things are necessarily incorrect, but they distract from the actual problem in Dallas, which is that this is a very mediocre team in a top-of-the-line division.

The fundamental issues with the Cowboys run very deep, from offensive line play, to terrible coverage units year in and year out, to downright embarrassing run defense, and even include an offensive identity crisis.  Talent cures most ills, and the top end talent on the Cowboys is as strong as any other team in the NFL.  That’s what you can see, that’s what I can see, and that’s what overshadows the problems.  The Cowboys scored 9 quality starters, which is as many as the Redskins and one more than either the Giants or the Eagles.  There’s your talent.

Yet the Cowboys QDS figure comes out to only a relatively weak 11, lowest in the NFC East, thanks to a thin offensive line and defensive unit.  The team doesn’t have very many holes, but you win in this league by having quality talent throughout the roster, not stars and serviceable stop gaps.

The Cowboys didn’t get the memo.  They struggled with offensive line quality, and did nothing to assist it, losing the only lineman they drafted–Ball State’s Robert Brewster–to a season ending injury.  Flozell Adams absolutely cannot handle modern pass rushers at the LT position anymore, but they can’t swing him and his contract over to RT because they just extending Marc Columbo over on the right side, and he was never capable of handling left tackle.  Kyle Kosier was injured most of last year, and when he was, Cory Procter and Montrae Holland were horrific replacements.  Kosier returns this year, which should be a boost to the line, until something else inevitably goes wrong.

Depth on defense was, and continues to be enemy number one for this team. So when the Cowboys traded their decent No. 2 CB, Anthony Henry, to Detroit for…Jon Kitna, you have to wonder exactly what the Cowboys learned from last year.  Henry was the team’s best corner when Newman went down, and while I can understand how opening up a spot in the starting lineup for the young talent to compete for can be beneficial, other teams have enjoyed success by moving a veteran corner to safety and filling a hole there.

Instead, they traded him for another quarterback who wont be able to provide vertical offense if the team loses Romo.  They do have Orlando Scandrick, a 5th round pick from Boise State in 2008, who played very well as a rookie, but might be under pressure to push 2008 first round CB Mike Jenkins onto the field.  Either way, it’s going to be a learning experience because behind them are two functional safeties who offer little pass support.  Former pro bowler Ken Hamlin has decent range for a free safety, but is not good enough in coverage to take the tight end away.  Gerald Sensabaugh, signed away from Jacksonville in the offseason, is a perfect example of the team’s stopgap attitude.  He does a lot of little things well, and he will look professional while chasing Kevin Boss and Chris Cooley into the end zone this year.

With little depth in the secondary, you’d hope that with all the Cowboys picks over the last ten years on the defensive side of the ball have developed into quality starters plus depth on the defensive end, but only three players drafted by the team in the first round are penciled into start.  One, LB DeMarcus Ware, led the league in sacks last year.  He’s not a complete player yet, but he’s only 26, and few doubt that because of his talent, that he will one day win a few defensive player of the year awards.  The other is DE Marcus Spears, who is now in the last year of his rookie contract, and just hasn’t developed.  A lot of observers felt that he needed to be replaced, but the team lost their other, much stronger, DE Chris Canty in the offseason, and replaced him with Igor Olshansky, a 2nd round pick of the Chargers in 2004 who hasn’t lived up to the hype.  Olshansky is fine, but again, another stop gap on the side of the ball where the Cowboys have spent all their picks of value in the first round over the last ten years.

What’s remarkable is that the third player, DE/OLB Anthony Spencer, is now the unquestioned starter in his third year, and he has about half a season of starting experience under his belt, and the Cowboys need his timely development.  They took him with the idea of having bookend pass rushers, but he hasn’t done anything in his first two seasons.  No cause for alarm just yet, the Cowboys really think he’s ready to make the jump, but if he’s a hole in the defense this year, this is a weak unit at every level.  If he breaks through, the Cowboys feature a strong four-man group of LBs: Ware, Spencer, a quality starter in Bradie James, and Keith Brooking, who is a nice scheme fit and probably the best of all the Cowboys signings–a big upgrade over the aging Zach Thomas.

One place where the Cowboys are strong, despite losing Terrell Owens, is at the skill positions.  Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice make up a proverbial three-headed monster at tailback, and while Roy Williams is a little bit over his head as a No. 1 receiver, Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, and Sam Hurd all provide excellent options for Romo to go with the football, and great depth at the position.  The Cowboys starting offense features not one, but two excellent starting TEs.  Jason Witten is widely regarded as the league’s best TE, and rightfully so, while Martellius Bennett would be one of the 10-12 best tight ends in the league on any team, and on the Cowboys, he’s simply that guy who lines up on the left side.  Rather than award a point of depth, I gave the Cowboys two quality starters at this position.

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The passing offense is as versatile as it is powerful, but unfortunately limited by the quality of it’s offensive line.  The rushing attack does not seem to be hindered in any way, the Cowboys have a chance at producing two 1,000 yard rushers, and maybe another 300-400 yards from Choice.  That would certainly help the defense if the Cowboys could control the clock and limit the amount of possessions an opponent gets in a single game.  The decreased sample size would help the Cowboys win games.

Turnovers have always bitten Tony Romo, and that’s a personal adjustment that he’s going to have to make now that he’s lost his go-to deep threat and will be under constant siege this year.  Romo often lets his footwork decide where the ball is going, and never seems to not know where his outlet receivers are, but has thrown up his share of picks and fumbles over the years by making gambles of questionable reasonableness.  If Romo doesn’t cut down on the turnovers, it’s hard to see an improved offense.  The pressure is on him, maybe more than any quarterback in the league.

The Cowboys were able to enjoy a 13 win season in 2007 with relatively poor depth because the starters stayed remarkably healthy through 16 games, although less so at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  A natural regression to 11 wins was likely, until the injuries struck last year, keeping Tony Romo out of action for 3 games, Terence Newman out for 5, S Roy Williams out for the season (he was released), and knocked Felix Jones out at midseason.  The result was a 9 win season, and they significantly outperformed performance indicators such as Pythagorean record.

If everything goes right, the Cowboys are still a playoff contender behind their talent, but this team isn’t all that different from the 2008 team.  It’s weaker in some places, stronger in others, and the performance is linked strongly to Romo’s personal improvements.  A 61.3% completion isn’t getting it done at this level for this offense.  He has help, but at 29, he’s no spring chicken, and improvements in his game will be marginal.  Can the Cowboys re-invent themselves as a grind-it-out, stretch them wide, throw it deep type offense?  They have the talent, but have to prove they are disciplined enough to beat different opponents in different ways.  I’m not writing them off yet, I’m just less than convinced.

Cowboys Headquarters: Valley Ranch, TX

For a 9-7 team, the Cowboys don’t have a whole lot of promising camp rookies.

-WR Manuel Johnson has looked very good in camp, and appears to be a trendy pick for the 5th wide receiver spot currently held by former Washington quarterback Isaiah Stanback.  Stanback’s impact has been mostly on special teams to date.

-G Greg Isander is running with the second teamers, and trying to show that he can offer more to the Cowboys than any of the other backup lineman they’ve trotted out there in recent seasons.  He’s competing with Ryan Gibbons for the ninth lineman spot.

-LB Matt Stewart has his work cut out for him.  The Cowboys like to keep between 8 and 9 linebackers, which puts him on the bubble.  If he can prove his worth over a veteran such as Stephen Hodge or Victor Butler, he’ll add some much needed youth to the ILB position for the Cowboys.

-S Michael Hamlin from Clemson, no relation to Ken Hamlin, is a talented four year college starter who is pushing veteran Pat Watkins for everything he has.  Not to go overboard with hyperbole, but Hamlin is probably the best safety prospect on this team to pair with the other Hamlin, and I don’t see how you keep him off the roster.  You can probably keep five safeties, if you’re the Cowboys.

Surprise Cuts?

• WR Patrick Crayton
• G Montrae Holland
• C Cory Procter
• DE Marcus Spears
• LB Bobby Carpenter

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, 49ers, Panthers, Giants, Texans, Falcons, Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Redskins, Seahawks

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The Bears won’t argue that either of the last two seasons have lived up to the lofty expectations set by a super bowl appearance in 2006.  In fact, if you get the chance to ask him, Lovie Smith will probably agree with you that his 2008 team had every chance to make the postseason in some capacity, and failed to get back to a place that they most likely belonged.

But the Bears don’t need your pity.  They have Jay Cutler.  You have to admit, he’s a worthwhile consolation prize.

In our Denver Broncos’ Roster Roundouts, I looked at the complicated equation of what the Broncos would have to get from their haul to justify the trade, and determined that they needed multiple stars from their 2009 draft, specifically 2 or more.  For the Bears, the trade equation is a lot simpler.  If you assume an average drafting ability for Jerry Angelo picks, the combined total draft value of all the picks given from Chicago to Detroit is valued at roughly 10 wins above replacement over the life of the rookie contracts.

For the Bears, it would take 5 years at the current levels of play for Cutler to accrue 10 more wins than Orton, according to a regression run by Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats that used adjusted yards per attempt as it’s value metric.

The key phrase of course is “at current levels.”  It appears to be a very even trade based on expected development paths, but the Broncos have a much higher upside prospect in Orton than the Bears are getting in Cutler.  Orton might completely bust out of Denver, but he’s pretty replaceable: from Denver’s perspective, the success or failure of the deal doesn’t hinge on Orton.  He’s just one piece of four.  If the Broncos get a franchise quarterback in Orton, they likely win this deal going away.  If they don’t, they probably lose the deal, but they can still win it if they get major contributions from this draft class.

But Cutler is the trade from the Bears perspective.  And now that he’s switching offenses, switching offensive lines, and will throw to a completely different group of receivers, the Bears are asking a lot from the guy to have him produce immediately.  The seeds of failure have spiked the kool-aid in Chicago.

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And yet, this appears to be a great situation.  When LiveBall looked at the Bears Defense last month, the conclusion was that the Bears defense is a very dangerous unit once again this year, and that an analysis of the Chicago Bears has to start there.  Last year in Denver, Jay Cutler had one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  This year in Chicago, he’ll have one of the best.  It’s such a radically different team that we don’t know how his personal style will translate.  He figures to benefit a lot from playing with a lead, but in the last three years, the Bears defense hasn’t had to deal with a high turnover defense.  Every once in a while, Rex Grossman would throw up a classic six turnover game or so, and once or twice, the Bears have even overcome it.  But Cutler turns the ball over on a more constant basis, more like a time or two every week, and that might be a tough adjustment for a defense that is used to leading the charge with scoring.

The Bears can cut down on the turnovers by letting Matt Forte handle the load.  The rookie exploded last year for more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage, more than Chris Johnson, Jonathon Stewart, Kevin Smith, or Darren McFadden.  The advanced numbers suggest he’s a better pass receiver than a runner, but that he’s capable of carrying the load again.  There’s nothing wrong with letting Forte touch the ball 350 times this season, or about 22 times per game.  The offense will be better for it.

The Bears did a pretty remarkable job piecing together a offensive line on the cheap.  Chris Williams looks good at the RT–he was the 14th overall pick in 2008 out of Vanderbilt (the Bears have four Vandy players!)–and the team found a serviceable one year LT in former pro-bowler Orlando Pace.  Pace has missed significant time in each of the last two seasons with injury, but the guy is only 33 years old, and can still play.  They added Kevin Shaffer from Cleveland for depth, and he’s probably better than the guy who Cleveland signed to replace him, former Bears LT John St. Clair.  The final piece to the offseason OL puzzle was T/G Frank Omiyale, who was a valuable depth lineman for the Panthers last year.  He starts the season on the bench, but could play guard right away if necessary.

But a discussion of the Bears offense can’t ignore it’s talented tight end duo, which includes Greg Olsen and veteran Desmond Clark, who are really the point-men in the passing offense.  Eventually, the discussion drifts to the receivers, a group known to many as “Devin Hester and the scrubs.”  That’s pretty charitable to Hester, who would probably be one of the scrubs if not for his contract, which he earned with his punt return abilities, not his receiving skills.  Hester is the kind of player who can frustrate Cutler to no end, with his dynamic talent earning numerous looks, and his lack of discipline and discernible route running ability wasting downs.  Still, if you want to go vertical, Hester is the man for the job, while guys like Earl Bennett, Brandon Riddeau, Juaquan Iglesias, and Rashied Davis are the guys who will work the underneath role in the offense.

Without re-hashing points already made about the defense, the Bears feature a re-tooled front seven with Pisa Tinoisamoa as a quality addition to an already fantastic linebacker unit.  You can make the argument that the weak link of the group is now MLB Brian Urlacher, but you know what kind of player you are going to get from him on a week to week basis.  Urlacher’s days as an elite player may be in the past, but there’s some degree of leadership and continuity value that you get from having him running your defense, and he’s still capable of putting up numbers and making pro bowls.

It’s the secondary that is most unsettled.  There’s no shortage of talent throughout the roster: there’s about 10 guys on the Bears defensive back depth chart that could start somewhere in the NFL.  Problem is, the Bears are working with one experienced Corner (Charles Tillman), and zero safeties with more than a year’s worth of starts under their belt.  What the Bears do to improve at this position could make the difference between being the best defense in the NFL, and the 11th best.

No matter how well the Bears defense does this year, it won’t overshadow the Jay Cutler media circus.  But in the 12 years since Erik Kramer took his franchise records and left town, the Bears have needed a quarterback to whore attention as badly as they’ve needed a strong head coach figure or a G.M. who could draft an offense.  They’ve rolled through Moses Moreno, Cade McNown, Shane Matthews, Jim Miller, Kordell Stewart, Chad Hutchinson, Chris Chandler, Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, and Kyle Orton.  Jay Cutler is a fantastic diversion not only from the rest of the team, but from the team’s past.  Bears fans can only hope that the team will capitalize on the opportunity.

Bears Headquarters, Lake Forest, IL

The Bears usually save a bunch of spots on their active roster for undrafted players who impress, so this year’s roster fillers are perhaps as exciting as any team in the league.

- RB Adrian Peterson has been a fixture on the team since 2003, but his days as the divisions’ “other” Adrian Peterson might be numbered.  The Bears figure to only need three RBs with Matt Forte as a feature back, and the team likes Garrett Wolfe.  A lot.

- WRs Johnnie Knox (Abiliene Christian) and Devin Aromashadu (Auburn) have fallen behind Brandon Riddeau in the contest they are having to prove that you too can play receiver for the Chicago Bears.  Riddeau is getting reps ahead of former arena star Rashied Davis, who now finds himself on the bubble.

-DEs Ervin Baldwin and Henry Melton find themselves with a real, live roster spot available for the winning now with the season ending injury to DL Dusty Dvoracek, who is now on IR for the fourth consecutive season.  Boomer Sooner.  If the season is lost, Melton can return kicks at least as well as Devin Hester  can, and would you not pay to sit in 15 degree weather and see number sixty-nine sprinting up field with a football?

-S Al Alfalava is a 6th round pick from this year’s draft for the Bears, and he’s been so good that he might be the team’s starting strong safety on opening day.  I don’t know if that needs additional comment, but it does seem to call for a nickname.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Kevin Jones
• WR Rashied Davis
• LB Hunter Hillenmeyer
• S Craig Steltz
• S Josh Bullocks