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West coast sports fans are quick to note that media is largely east coast biased, and there’s some validity to this principal.  Every individual major sport began in the east, and migrated west, leaving it’s historically most rabid fan bases in the east.  These franchises are the cash cows of the professional league, and so it makes sense to promote your biggest teams, and often, west coast teams are limited in their coverage.

It’s not an east coast bias as much as it is a big market bias.  But in football, a remarkable trend has occurred regarding super bowl winners: the St. Louis Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV.  The next nine super bowl winners have come from the eastern time zone.  Roughly about half the franchises play their home games in the east, so it’s not like it’s completely circumstantial: the dominant teams of the era have been the Steelers, the Patriots, the Ravens, the Colts, and the Giants to a lesser extent.  Even when other teams have broken through to win their conference: the 2002 Raiders, the 2005 Seahawks, the 2006 Bears, and the 2008 Cardinals, none have won the big game.

So it’s with complete respect to this history that I make the prediction that a west coast team is winning the Super Bowl this year.  If not the Seattle Seahawks, someone who outlasts them in the NFC West.  And if not them, why not the Chargers?  But since this article isn’t about all the other West Coast teams, allow me to make a case for the Seahawks as the best team in the NFC West, and maybe even the NFC.

First of all, the Seahawks QDS of 12 is the second highest of any team in the wide open NFC-other-than-East, second only to division rival Arizona.  The 4-12 record last year is irrelevant.  No one blames the Seahawks for the offensive injuries, and while you can make a case that the defense should not have collapsed like it did last year, dropping the team to the depths of the league’s worst, in a season where they expected to be one of the very best.  It was a humbling experience for all involved, but you can’t argue that the team didn’t make the necessary defensive changes to fix what ailed them.

Is there reason to believe that the necessary changes won’t work?  Well, the team didn’t replace S Brian Russell yet, and he was a major coverage issue last year.  But they’ve all but given up on Kelly Jennings, who was another major coverage issue, and they’ve brought back a proven cover man in Ken Lucas rather than push nickelback/return man Josh Wilson into a role where he could potentially fail.  It’s hard to imagine CB Marcus Trufant having a worse year in coverage than he did last year given his impressive track record, and with Patrick Kerney returning from injury, and given the depth that the Seahawks feature on the DL, this breaks down to be a great coverage team.

There’s cause for concern though.  One of the things that the Seahawks can’t expect to improve to the mean is their pass rushing numbers.  The trade for Cory Redding pulls two pass rushers off the field: Julian Peterson, who was traded to Detroit for Redding, but also the LE position, which is where Kerney had been playing, as Redding is only a pass rusher in the nominal sense: he plays a position where they make him do that.  But the trade off is that they should see a boost in the run defense when blockers are not getting to superstar LBs Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry, and mere mortal LB Leroy Hill.

Tatupu isn’t much in coverage, which is where Curry will help the team the most.  Linebacker coverage was a major issue last year, and Curry and Hill offer two very strong coverage options for linebackers.  This is not your father’s cover two defense; Tatupu isn’t going to be running vertically here.  The other thing Curry will help is that when he gets enough experience so that he doesn’t have to come off the field in third down, it will virtually eliminate the need for a dime back in the Seahawks defense, which is good, because safety is one of their thinnest positions.  DT Brandon Mebane is a largely unheralded tackle against the run and the pass.  While it’s not certain that they’ll have a top 5-10 defensive unit, it’s certainly looking good.

The veteran offensive line collapsed last year, and it’s really hurting right now.  Walter Jones’ status for the season is very much in question after arthroscopic knee surgery, he might miss the rest of the preseason, or the entire regular season.  The team already released veteran LG Mike Wahle earlier this month due to health concerns and performance issues.  C Chris Spencer’s performance is a major question mark, and you have to be disappointed that a 2005 first round pick as an interior lineman has not become a force on the the inside.  Rob Sims and Manfield Wrotto are no ones idea of a top guard tandem, though they might end up being the strength of the offensive line.  If Walter Jones is healthy enough to play, they’ll have their bookend RT back in Sean Locklear.

Other than that, the Seahawks will plant their franchise (Matt Hasselbeck) behind Center, and ask their very volatile skill position players to help them win games.  The tight end position is the most solidified, where John Carlson was everything the Seahawks wanted coming out of Notre Dame.  He’s the ideal west coast tight end: a blocker who is functionally athletic and is better in the red zone than any other part of the field.

They made a brash signing in T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  He has a contract that may look bad in three or four years depending on the outcome of the CBA negotiations, but in the immediate, gives the Seahawks exactly what they need on the outside.  He makes the Seahawks better at three positions, because now Nate Burleson is not out of place as a complementary target, and Deion Branch is a functional number three receiver.

Where you could argue that the Seahawks are weakest is behind Matt Hasselbeck.  Not on the depth chart.  In the I-formation.  Julius Jones will look to start 16 games this year for the Seahawks.  He’s not your ideal feature back, but in an era where everyone is sharing the load, Julius Jones is basically a lock for 300 carries this year, and he happened to put up a very respectable 4.4 YPC last year behind a mess of an offensive line.  Jones only has one 1,000 yard season to his name in the NFL, but he’s not a bad player.

The problem is that he’s not the kind of player you spend a lot of time trying to work him into space.  He’ll be plugged into this machine, and if he doesn’t fit perfectly, the Seahawks will just throw the ball 45 times a game.  Can this team win like this?  Yes, but only if it doesn’t result in Matt Hasselbeck being injured again.

So, a likely top ten defense combines with one of the most efficient passing games in the NFL, and a functional running game, and you have a super bowl contender.   This is a stronger t0p-to-bottom, September-to-January team than the Cardinals are, in spite of the higher QDS rating, and it’s a blessing that this team does not play in the NFC East.  While the East will produce at least ONE team capable of winning it all in January, the Seahawks figure to show up in the playoff field in pretty much all scenarios, and in many of them, are capable of riding a west coast home field advantage back to the NFC Championship game and a favorable strategic match-up.

That’s why a 4-12 team from last year is perhaps the safest pick to win the NFC and play in the Super Bowl.

Seahawks Headquarters, Kirkland, WA

Lets look at some of the players on the Seahawks who are still fighting and clawing to make the roster.

-QB Mike Teel is in a tight QB battle with former Nevada QB Jeff Rowe, and holds a slight lead in that he usually gets to play before Rowe.  I think Rowe is the better player of the two, but the Seahawks will probably give Teel a year on the roster based on his draft status as a 6th round pick.

-RB Devin Moore is a smaller sized running back with explosive skills.  Unfortunately, the Seahawks are already trying to feature Justin Forsett in their offense and special teams, and that makes Moore expendable no matter what he does.  There’s diminishing returns to having multiple diminutive backs.

-WR Jordan Kent is trying to make the Seahawks roster AGAIN this year after falling victim to the same voodoo that cost Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor, Nate Burleson, and Logan Payne their 2008 seasons, and give refugee to Koren Robinson, of all people.

-TE Cameron Morrah is a rookie tight end from Cal who looks like he’s going to be able to hold onto the third tight end job.

-DE Michael Bennett is the brother of Martellus Bennett, and like his brother, he’s making a lot of noise in August.  He combines an impressive frame with really good athleticism and is making it very hard on the Seahawks’ brass to make a decision on their defensive line personnel.

-CB Travis Fisher is a cast off from last year’s Lions who is trying to push Kelly Jennings for a roster spot in training camp.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Justin Forsett
• WR Deion Branch
• OT Walter Jones
• C Chris Spencer
• S Brian Russell

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, 49ers, Panthers, Giants, Texans, Falcons, Jets, Ravens, Broncos

Camps around the NFL have broken, and so roster roundouts is going to move into full-on regular season focus.  Major unresolved camp battles will be examined, but since almost all of the remaining teams are among the contenders, it’s time to turn one eye to the prize at the end of the long road.

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The relatively low expectations around the 2009 Washington Redskins are a result of their own actions.  In the NFL, perception often equals reality.  While there are 31 teams putting on a happy face about all of their issues, selling optimism to their fan base in order to ensure ticket sales, the Redskins are doing their own thing, letting everyone who will listen to them know that they don’t know if they have the right pieces on offenses, and that while they don’t deserve to be called a top defense yet, there’s no problem that Snyder-bucks can’t fix.

It’s a fascinating technique.  The Redskins, thanks to their own efforts, are universally viewed as a non-contender by most observers, with a few people seeing them for what they really are, such as ESPN’s John Clayton.  The sheep mentality is strong in this league, but it’s not all that hard to fathom the Redskins as a completely forgettable 8-8 team with sky high expectations and a megalomaniac owner and powerless V.P. of Player Personnel.  As the narrative goes, the firing squad will hit head coach Jim Zorn, quarterback Jason Campbell, and cornerback Carlos Rogers, not to mention holdovers from the Gibbs era such as Phillip Daniels, Antwaan Randle El, Andre Carter, and defensive coordinator Greg Blache.  Let the destruction commence.

Destruction of this Redskins team is far from certain.  Rather, self-destruction appears to be the only means to the end that destroys a team still very much built on Joe Gibbs’ principles.  The Redskins were mostly unquestioned winners of this years’ NFC East “arms race”.  While such terms as “off-season champs” and “March super bowl winners” have been used in a derogatory way to describe this team’s shortsighted tendencies, few seem to see a difference between Albert Haynesworth and Adam Archuleta in terms of relative value.

All one had to observe was the way that Haynesworth’s perceptive value tanked after he signed with the Redskins.  Here was a guy, universally considered a top three defender in the NFL with Tennessee, but simply by changing his digs and signing with Washington, Haynesworth is now a massive contract, a guy who doesn’t belong the top 25 players in the league, an injury-prone player.  These people will not likely be standing in line to taunt the offensive guards and centers that Haynesworth embarrasses this year; heaven forbid someone actually stand behind their words.

The Redskins have a few fundamental issues that are not related to their player acquisition methods that need to be fixed.  For the Gibbs years, management stood out of the way while the Redskins rebuilt towards respectability, earning 10 wins in 2005 and 9 more in 2007, and made the playoffs both years.  Then Gibbs retired, and the team hired Jim Zorn to take over the offense, and install the west coast.  After about a month-long search, the Redskins couldn’t find a better man for the job, so they promoted Zorn and stayed mostly out of his way.

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The team was rewarded for it’s inactivity by a quick start, exploding to 4-1 and a share of the division lead before quickly establishing themselves as a mid-tier team, slugging it to a 6-3 record at their bye week.  Needing reinforcements in the defensive secondary, the team signed maligned cornerback DeAngelo Hall to bolster them for a playoff run.  But two divisional losses in the next three weeks crippled the Redskins, and sent them spiraling into the month of December at a very mediocre, but salvagable, 7-5.

However, the Redskins would not be salvaging anything.  It’s powerful zone running game was already distant memory, the pass defense was leaking and wouldn’t hold throughout the season, and all it had left was an inconsistent passing game.  The Ravens swooped in for the kill shot, and when Chris Samuels tore his triceps on a block of Terrell Suggs, that was it.  Try as the Redskins might, they ended up losing to Cincinnati and San Francisco in their final two road games of the season, and were torched by the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Shaun Hill.

As much as the offense needed help, the Redskins could only address so many holes in one season, you know, being a team that decided to trade for Jason Taylor first and ask questions about his viability in their defensive scheme later.  After releasing Taylor and vets Shawn Springs and Marcus Washington, they re-signed Hall, and added Haynesworth and drafted all-world DE Brian Orakpo, and picked up a nice developmental DL prospect in the supplemental draft: DE Jeremy Jarmon.  The rebuilding of the defensive unit appears complete.

So the Redskins enter 2009 with offensive questions.  The team feels that the re-signing of Derrick Dockery should help, and the early returns in the preseason have been fantastic.  But no one cares in the least about the development of line, except in the sense that it may make or break QB Jason Campbell.

You may have heard: the Redskins aren’t enamored with Jason Campbell.  That’s not a complete crime.  On a level, it suggests inadequacy of the teams’ self-judgmental techniques, but reasonable people can disagree on the quality of a developing player.  But reasonable people don’t try to replace their unproven developmental prospect with a limited track record of success with another teams’ much pricier prospect with a limited track record of success.  And yet, the Redskins were perhaps minutes away from trading most of their future for disgruntled quarterback Jay Cutler.

Then again, the Redskins haven’t established much of a track record of being reasonable.

After Washington decided the price on Cutler was too high (“were not in the business of trading first round picks,” said Dan Snyder, who has traded the team’s first round draft pick no less than three times in his ten year run as team owner), they decided to turn their attention to USC QB Mark Sanchez, who would have likely cost them multiple first round picks to trade up and get at the top of the draft.  The Redskins never made a formal offer for a pick that would have secured Sanchez, and drafted Orakpo at No. 13, but the Redskins showed the world that they have little idea how to market and value their own players relative to the shiny objects that everyone else has.

The Redskins could have handled the situation intelligently with a little history lesson.  In the 2007 offseason, a playoff bound franchise became quietly disenchanted with it’s franchise quarterback.  No one caught wind of this: the Jacksonville Jaguars never tried to make a blockbuster trade with the Bills for JP Losman, nor did they threaten to trade back up into the first round for a shot at Kevin Kolb, Brady Quinn, or John Beck.  They actually drafted S Reggie Nelson just one pick before the Cleveland Browns traded up for Quinn.  But in a coaches decision of epic proportions, Jack Del Rio decided to release Byron Leftwich, and make David Garrard his starter.  Garrard has been excellent over the last two seasons, but Leftwich is just now getting back on his feet.  That’s not fair to the incumbent, but life is not fair.  The point is that the Jaguars did something controversial and handled it properly.

The Redskins made a mockery out of the process.  They didn’t develop a viable second option, they just up and got pissed off with their current situation and tried to act like a quarterback upgrade would fix all ills.  Throughout, management has maintained a series of public backhanded complements to their current passer.  This, and all the while, they have not left the final decisions up to their coach, nor have they given him a viable second option to develop.

That situation is water under the bridge now: Campbell actually survived where Leftwich failed, he’s still a quarterback on a super bowl contender in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to worry about a quick hook, he just has to win games at the beginning of the season, in the middle of the season, and at the end of the season.  And behind an improved offensive line, a rejuvenated running game, and a well-oiled version of the west coast offense, only the lack of a viable downfield threat could de-rail the Redskins offense this year.

There’s a worry that if things do go wrong, they’ll go sour fast, and that management will be more worried about saving face than correcting the issues.  It’s a legitimate concern.  The Redskins are a dysfunctional organization that doesn’t follow a consistent standard or process, and always acts in it’s short term interest.  Given the firepower on offense and defense, their short term interests appear to be throwing their feeble support behind Zorn and Campbell and riding a powerful defense to represent the NFC in the super bowl.  The Redskins’ overall score of 14 QDS ties them for the best figure in all of the NFC, although their score of 5 depth puts them in the middle of the pack there (which is actually an improvement in the team philosophy thanks to the Gibbs years).  Clearly, they do have the horses to compete, and their schedule is the softest it’s been in years.

The wins figure to come cascading down for the Redskins, and the limit is the Lombardi Trophy.  If the success dries up too soon though, there’s not enough goodwill remaining in the bank to save the Redskins’ brass from themselves.

Redskins Headquarters, Ashburn, VA

There’s about three or four camp battles that are legitimately up in the air, although if Chase Daniel has another great week of practice, he could steal the third quarterback spot from Colt Brennan.  Team hopefuls include:

- QB Chase Daniel, whose dynamic performance against the Steelers second teamers has earned him a shot at Colt Brennan’s stranglehold on the third quarterback job.

-RB Dominique Dorsey, a kick return specialist from the CFL who offers a dimension not currently offered by the Redskins: A punt returner who runs forward.

-WR Marko Mitchell, the team’s seventh round draft pick who has been absolutely electric in camp and the preseason games.  He’s become the favorite for the 5th WR spot, but he’s not likely to stop there.

-TE Robbie Agnone, whose massive frame and relative athleticism would make him a fantastic option on the goal line and a vast offensive improvement over Todd Yoder, if they could just find him a niche on special teams.

-C/G Edwin Williams, the consensus best of the remaining Centers who were undrafted, the Redskins have slid him over to left guard in an attempt to find him a spot where he can stick.  It’s not looking good right now.

- LBs Cody Glenn and Robert Henson, who are competing against one another as well as holdover Alfred Fincher for the last LB spot.  Henson did not appear in the second preseason game, and he wasn’t too happy with Greg Blache, according to Twitter.

-S Lendy Holmes, whose intelligent and football instincts have made him a really dynamic player in the Redskins’ secondary.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB Todd Collins
• G Randy Thomas
• DE/DT Lorenzo Alexander
• LB Robert Thomas
• CB Justin Tryon