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Indeed, no team was hotter or better in the 2007 playoffs than the New York Giants, and despite an injury and retirement on the defensive line that cost them two of their best pass rushers, no team in the 2008 regular season was better.

But all was not rosy for the Giants, as non-Burress related fissures began to appear in the team about the time they lost Plaxico Burress.  Regarding the receiver, Burress’ loss appeared to have an adverse effect on quarterback Eli Manning, but that’s not the whole story.  Burress’ value as a player is tied up in his ability to save poorly thrown balls and adjust coverages to account for his big play ability.  That’s valuable for sure, but he’s hardly a complete receiver.  He doesn’t catch enough balls thrown at him, and he’s kind of a lazy route runner.

Taking Burress out of the equation changed the kind of offense that the Giants were, and there was an adjustment period, but it didn’t make them any worse on offense.  Dominik Hixon stepped into Burress’ role and did relatively well in the intermediate zones, and would have done much better had he caught a long TD pass behind the Eagles defense that he dropped.  What did hurt was the pass protection: the Giants line started to struggle with power rushers in the last third of the year.  That carried over into the playoffs, and was no more evident than when Brandon Jacobs couldn’t gain a yard on fourth and one.

But the real issue that did the Giants in was the defense.  Whereas the offense cracked, the defense broke.  In weeks 1-11, the Giants allowed more than 300 yards of total offense in two games games (20%).  In weeks 12-17, the Giants allowed more than 300 yards of total offense in EVERY game.  Total yardage allowed is a often a misleading stat, but in this case, 300 total yards works as a good measure of defensive dominance, and the discrepancy before and after the Baltimore game is pretty convincing.

The Giants’ decided that the defense was the meal ticket, and they just kept signing and signing defensive front players until they realized that they ran out of free spots on the roster.  A defensive front that included two primary defensive ends and a three man defensive tackle rotation now features: DEs Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka, Dave Tollefson, and rookie Maurice Evans, and DTs Chris Canty, Fred Robbins, Rocky Bernard, Jay Alford, and Barry Cofield.  If there’s an irreplaceable piece among the bunch, it’s Tuck, but even a worst case scenario simply bumps Canty over about two shades on the line.  Tuck’s injury late in the year was a big deal to the playoff chances of this team, and Osi’s return to the starting lineup is just as much of  a boost as Tuck’s improved health.  Presented without additional analysis: the Giants also had a very competitive offer for DT Albert Haynesworth.

This is a team that will batter opponents with the pass rush, and won’t hesitate to send linebackers to create additional pressure when necessary.  Antonio Pierce and Danny Clark return, already two pretty good pass rush LBs, and for coverage, the Giants signed LB Michael Boley, who will give way to Bryan Kehl in week one after a one-game suspension to Boley.  Have to say, if the Giants had Haynesworth and Boley against the Redskins, it’s makes a dynamic difference in a game that now features no Boley, and Haynesworth on the Redskins.  Probably a decisive difference.

The secondary has one shutdown player in CB Corey Webster, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, and two developing talents in CB Aaron Ross, a 2007 first rounder who strayed from the expected development path last year (8.9 yards per pass, among leagues worst), and FS Kenny Phillips, a rookie in 2008 who performed just fine.  The last member of the secondary, SS Michael Johnson, is plenty adequate.  This is a very deep unit at the corners, and very thin at the safeties.  C.C. Brown is the first backup, and he couldn’t start in Houston.

The Giants are all but certain to have a top five defense this year.  But last year they won because they had a top five offense and a top three offensive line.  The Giants did not touch this unit in free agency, addressing the receiver position through the draft.  It’s incredibly likely that out of the 5 potential starters on their roster, plus the developmental receiver from Cal Poly Ramses Barden, Eli Manning will find a good two or three man WR corps to get the ball to, and TE Kevin Boss is not a bad safety blanket for him.  But here’s what could force the Giants hand into simplifying the offense: the arms race in the NFC East.

Last year, the Giants did a lot more 3 WR stuff than they had in the recent past, and it appeared to help Eli Manning, but the two fiercest threats to the NFC East title, the Redskins and the Eagles, are completely loaded on the defensive line.  In the interest of protecting Eli Manning, more blockers might be the best way to go.  That means less spread, less 3 WR, more two back stuff.  To me, that’s going to limit the development of the receivers, with Dominik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks splitting time, and Mario Manningham and Steve Smith splitting time.  Eli Manning’s performance is closely linked to how well his line sticks together, but there’s not a single wide receiver on the team that is worth a top 8 round fantasy pick.

So what do we have here?  We have a preseason division favorite, a team that enters with perhaps fewer holes than any other team in the NFL, and enough potential to fill even that one hole.  But the vaunted offense did not move the ball on the ground last year against the two teams they needed to: Washington and Philadelphia.  And so, it’s obvious that if the Giants are to win the division, Eli Manning is going to have to lead them to at least four wins in the division, largely on the strength of his own right arm and coverage-beating abilities.  There is no guarantee that the Giants end the season as either the best or second best team in the NFC East, only that they begin it as the team to beat.

Giants Camp, Albany, NY

There’s some serious issues that need to be decided in camp and the preseason for the Giants as they shape the back end of their roster.  This is the year the Giants will determine who the 2011 and 2012 Giants will be.

Third Quarterback: Andre Woodson vs. Rhett Bomar

The Giants opened a lot of eyes by paying Eli Manning $96.5 million for his valuable, but relatively replaceable performance, so this is a good chance to show the world that they can tell a quarterback prospect from a non-prospect.  Both of these guys were late round picks with NFL-caliber arms, but one of them was a successful quarterback with a quick release, and the other has a slow releases, can’t read coverages, holds the ball too long, and takes sacks and forces passes.  If you’re familiar with the Giants, you don’t need me to tell you which guy is which, if you’re not, I’ll probably write about this once the final cuts are made.

If the Giants make the wrong call here, that’s a second strike at the QB position in a single offseason, and probably not good for a team that needs its offense.  Not that anyone not named “Manning” is going to be taking snaps for awhile.

Wide Receiver: Sinorice Moss vs. David Tyree

Moss has been a disappointment in three seasons out of Miami, but has made small steps each year, and at this point, let’s wonder what David Tyree offers.  Actually, more than you think.  Before he was a super bowl hero, Tyree was a pro bowl special teamer.  Only problem, the Giants have since developed another pro bowl special teamer: LB Zak DeOssie.  It would be fascinating if a team put two former special team pro bowlers on the same coverage unit, but if Moss offers any sort of receiving value for this year, he’ll get the nod.

Tight End: Darcy Johnson vs. Travis Beckum

Beckum has a ways to go, but he was a third round supplemental draft pick, and that itself virtually guarantees him a spot on the roster.

Offensive Tackle: Adam Koets vs. Guy Whimper

Koets is a good backup lineman who should word at some guard this year as well as RT now that the team has drafted LT William Beatty in the second round, a great pickup.  Whimper is a mid-round draft pick who probably doesn’t offer enough future value to justify a roster spot.  Perhaps he can learn guard?

Guard: Kevin Boothe vs. Terrence Pennington

Boothe has been disappointing in his career with the Raiders and the Giants, but he may be the best option as a backup guard on the Giants.  They have the second best Guard duo in the NFC, so he only plays due to injury.

Defensive End: Dave Tollefson vs. Maurice Evans

Evans is another underclassman from Penn State who was a nice find for the Giants, as with all the free agent signings on the DL, adds a guy who can benefit from having all those vets ahead of him.  Tollefson is probably making the team as a backup either way, but if it truly comes down to Tollefson v Evans, I don’t see how you can jettison the talented rookie.

Outside Linebacker: Gerris Wilkinson vs. Bryan Kehl vs. Chase Blackburn

Bryan Kehl is making the team out of camp because they need him in week one, but he’s in this discussion because he’s an easy cut in the middle of the year.  Gerris Wilkinson, who looked like a breakout prospect in 2007, is very much on the bubble.  Kehl is versatile enough to play all three LB positions, but Wilkinson might be displaced by the drafting of LB Clint Sintim in the second round.  If he’s not in the future plans, he’s probably not in the present.  Blackburn was a nice find back in 2006, but he’s third on the depth chart at middle linebacker right now, and he’s got a tough climb to make this team.

Cornerback: Stoney Woodson vs. DeAndre Wright

The Giants took a gamble and kept their 5th CB spot open for a bunch of undrafted rookies, and early returns look like they’ve hit the jackpot.  Woodson and Wright look like NFL level players, and they’ll battle each other for a spot on the 53-man and one of the deepest cornerback units in the league.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB David Carr
• WR Mario Manningham
• TE Matthew Michaels
• DT Barry Cofield
• DT Rocky Bernard

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans, 49ers

If you believe in momentum, you were given every reason to pick the Panthers to run through the NFC playoff field en route to Super Bowl 43 based on just how dominant they were down the stretch in the regular season.  I know I thought they would get at least through a game to the NFC Championship game, and I have no trust in the predictive value of momentum.

So how do we explain away what happened in Carolina when Kurt Warner and the Cardinals rolled into down for a divisional playoff game that, according to some, the Panthers barely had to show up for?  This was not a classic upset.  It wasn’t a game marred with underachieving play by the favorite, and a scrappy, heady effort from the underdog which they have to hold onto in nailbiting fashion.  This was a massacre.  The Panthers imploded from the first drive, and the Cardinals were fantastic the whole way threw.  Jake Delhomme threw a bunch of interceptions, committing 6 personal turnovers, and it could have been way worse.

But, it wasn’t completely out of character for either team.  This was a 12-4 team that lost it’s games, on average, by a very wide margin.  They were doubled up in Minnesota 20-10, they lost by 24 points in Tampa Bay, and by 17 in Atlanta.  As dominant as this team was for most of the year, they didn’t seal the division until the very last second of the last regular season game in New Orleans, and needed a comeback victory to do so.

But I think the biggest reason is that the Panthers just didn’t match up with the Cardinals very well.  Kurt Warner noted this after the week 8 regular season meeting between the two teams, a 27-23 Panthers victory at home in which the Panthers enjoyed one of their most efficient offensive days of the season.  Warner remarked that he was not ashamed of the effort and felt that his team was very close to beating one of the NFC’s elite teams.  There were some minor tweaks and injuries on Warners side of the ball that allowed the Cards to perform better on offense, but that’s semantics compared to the big story: in week 8, the Panthers were +1 in the turnover battle and posted a single game offensive DVOA of 31%.  In the playoff game, those numbers were -5 and -66% respectively (FOA 2009).  Most of that descrepancy were the Delhomme interceptions, but the interceptions themselves could be considered part a product of the complete domination of the day by the Cardinals defense.

If you count the playoff game, the Panthers were +1 in turnover differential on the season, which is completely different from being +6 over 16 games.  In this sense, the playoff game was very much just another bad game.  But the Panthers hadn’t been in the playoffs since their unexpected mini-run in 2005, and who knows how long it will take them to get back again?  They are one of three teams in the division who graded out above average according to a simple measure I like to use to grade teams in the preaseason called QDS (quality depth plus starters).  There’s nothing that differentiates them from either the Buccaneers or the Saints “on paper.”

This is the problem that Carolina faces: no competitive advantage.  With the news of Brett Favre’s return to the NFL with Minnesota, the Panthers have to face the toughest schedule in the division, and, oh yeah, they have to play the Cards again.  Their quarterback situation is formulaicly sound, in the sense that they have three players with defined roles: the veteran starter, the journeyman backup with starting experience (Josh McCown), and the third stringer who is the future of the franchise (Matt Moore).  The problem here is while the Pathers have a quarterback for all situations, it’s remarkable that not one of them is even average in his designated role.  Jake Delhomme is too careless with the football to be a quality NFL starter these days, although he can still find holes in coverages.  Josh McCown is not a great option as a backup, despite his starting experience, and Matt Moore may never amount to anything; scouting reports are conflicting.  Look at Dallas’ QB situation behind Tony Romo–you wouldn’t call that a good situation.  Same formula.  Only difference is where Tony Romo is a well above average quarterback, Delhomme is too often a major liability.

John Fox is a believer in momentum.  Or at least I thought he was.  When the team tried to fix it’s cap situation by awarding Jake Delhomme an additional $20 million in guaranteed money to defer his cap hit, it was time to wonder if management had lost their minds.  The Panthers don’t view Delhomme as a replaceable part in a machine run by Steve Smith and it’s #1 rated power running game, but isn’t that exactly what Delhomme is?  He’s a lot better than what he showed in the playoff game, but the epic struggles seem to be a product of the way Delhomme deals with relative failure, and while that’s not a factor that will keep you out of the playoffs, it’s a killer in a one and done type format such as the NFL postseason.  If the goal is to get to and win a super bowl, Delhomme is a part they can win with or without, unless he breaks down, in that case, then you can’t win with him.  Anyway, there’s now $20+ million riding on the fact that Delhomme can get the Panthers over the hump.

So what is the plan to stay at the top?  Hope everything just breaks your way again?  No, the Panthers will just rely on their power running game to keep them at the top of the conference as long as they can.  They feature two horses in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, both of whom figure to be among the rushing leaders in the NFL at the end of the year, although certainly their shared production will limit individual accomplishment.  And who could forget Steve Smith?  The most dynamic receiver in the game, sub 6′ 2″ version.  He’s got to get his touches somehow, and Delhomme impersonates a good quarterback on plays where he gets the ball to his favorite target, and that’s often enough to keep them both afloat in the Panthers’ offense.

The offensive line is build around, mammoth tackles, versatile guards, and a single, heady Center.  It’s a terrific unit, but requires all, or at the very least 4 of it’s pieces to function at top levels for the line to max it’s true potential.  LT Jordan Gross and C Ryan Kalil are the superstars, but LG Travelle Wharton is a converted LT who had his best year last year.  RG Kendrick Vincent is underrated, and RT Jeff Otah is still developing.  The team has three tight ends that it likes, led by starter Jeff King.  All of them can block.  FB Brad Hoover may be the very best blocking fullback in the game.

The day-one loss of Ma’ake Kemoeatu as the nose tackle of the Panthers defense is, however, a devastating loss on the other side of the ball.  He, for lack of a better explanation, was the Panthers’ run defense last year.  Guys like Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson, Damione Lewis, and Thomas Davis can get after quarterbacks, but none of these guys are really “run defenders”.  Peppers is decent from a two way perspective, and Lewis at his most dominant can take over the interior, but Tyler Brayton is an average player who is better against the pass than the run.  Kemoeatu was THE guy on the interior who made you double him, or he made the tackle himself.  Now, Jon Beason is almost certain to have a tougher go against NFL running backs this year, Davis has never been good against the run, and the Panthers will go with veteran Na’il Diggs in an attempt to get some consistency against the run, but we might end up seeing a LOT of SS Chris Harris in the box.

We’ll see how this affects the passing game.  As mentioned, the pass pressure should be there once again.  The coverage unit did a very good job last year, but Ken Lucas is out, and he’ll give way to Richard Marshall who is perfect capable of a clean replacement, though he did not get a single start in 2008.  The pressure will be on second year FS Charles Godfrey, as he’s the man who stands between the Panthers and a below average defense marred by the deep bomb.  No pressure, kid.

Momentum aside, the Panthers team philosophy is actually quite obvious once you look past the quarterback situation.  In fact, this team is more or less what the media THINKS the Vikings are offensively.  As noted in the Vikings version of Roster Roundouts, the offensive issues run way deeper than Favre/no Favre.  Well, the Panthers’ issues do not.  When the protection schemes and execution are adequate, and the quarterback makes good decisions, the Panthers can pass and run on any team in the NFL.  When one of those things falls apart, you get a close game.  When they both fall apart, you get the Cardinals in the super bowl.

Panthers Camp, Spartanburg, SC

There’s a battle amongst the undrafted and young wide receivers to be the 5th receiver on this team, but there’s too many names involved to make a call.  Instead, I’ll focus on a few battles on the defensive side.

Defensive Tackle: Corvey Irvin vs. Lorenzo Williams vs. Marlon Favorite

There’s a lot of guys who aren’t household names here, and the Panthers are nearly certain to make a transaction for a veteran DT to replace Ma’ake Kemoeatu.  But that still leaves at least one open spot here for anyone to step forward and win it.

Outside Linebacker: Mortty Ivy vs. Anthony Heygood

Ivy, a rookie from West Virginia, has looked sharp in training camp, and leads Heygood right now in the battle for the last LB spot.

Cornerback: Dante Wesley vs. Captain Munnerlyn

This is interesting.  Munnerlyn, a 7th round pick from South Carolina, has not only played well enough to make the team, but he’s challenging for the nickelback role, as a rookie.  There could be a surprise cut at the position, but the long time fourth corner/special teamer Wesley might be the odd man out this year.  He’s a pretty good player, and won’t likely be out of the game for long.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Mike Goodson
• TE Dante Rosario
• DE Tyler Brayton
• LB Landon Johnson
• CB C.J. Wilson

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Titans

Looking at the 49ers’ breakdown and splits from last year, there’s legitimate reason to believe that they could be the worst team in the NFL this year.

This might be hard to fathom.  It’s a team that won 7 games last year.  Was it an “empty” 7 games?  I guess, in a way.  More than that, it’s a team whose signature accomplishment in 2008 was going from an embarrassing team in the first half of the season to a winner in the second half.  But while they did win 5 of 8 games following the bye, and the team did improve it’s level of play, they did neither accomplishment in a manner that would imply success in the near future.

The tricky thing is that the 49ers appeared to put everything together in a second half comeback over the Redskins.  If you happened to watch that game from start to finish, like I did, you probably headed into the offseason impressed with where the 49ers were headed.  Only, here’s the problem: there’s nothing to suggest that it was any more than just a well played half against a floundering former playoff contender who was losing it’s pass defense at the end of the year.  One more game, and maybe the 49ers would have put together two performances that indicated that Mike Singletary had found a breakthrough.

The problem with looking at the team’s improved win percentage since making the coaching change from Mike Nolan to Mike Singletary is that while you can see a clear and instant improvement in the team from that point, they didn’t reach a level where you would expect them to beat good teams.  To be clear: the first 6 wins for the 49ers last year came against the Seahawks, the Lions, the Rams, the Bills, the Jets, and the Rams again.  You know, there is not a team in the league last year (outside of maybe the 2-14 Chiefs and Rams, and the 0-16 Lions) who would have been claiming any sort of accomplishment with any of those wins individually.  Because the 49ers won all those games, that looks like an accomplishment.  But this team lost to the Seahawks by 21 points, the Saints by 14 points, the Cowboys by 13 points, and the Dolphins by 5 points, and then two close losses to the division champion Cardinals, which ended up costing them the division in hindsight…any other team in another division would consider all those opponents to be just as beatable.

So what do you call a team that goes 6-6 against it’s mediocre and poor competition in it’s first 15 weeks?  I’d call it a team that fits in with that caliber of competition.  The 49ers team that finished the year wasn’t a bad football team, but it was somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of teams that really weren’t super bowl contenders.  So the Washington victory did plenty to help out the perception of this team, because even though the Redskins were floundering at the time, they were, outside of the Dolphins, the best team that the 49ers had played in the Mike Singletary era.  And in the first half, the Redskins showed the ability to come out and beat down on the Niners, so the second half adjustments might have really been the start of something great for Singletary.  Ultimately, it was just a positive event at the end of another lost season, one that made this poor team look a lot more like a breakout candidate than it really is.

So, wait, this team’s not going to get worse in the offseason right?  They drafted Michael Crabtree, and while conventional wisdom is that he won’t be making an impact in the immediate given his month-long-and-counting holdout, he’s a steal at the 10th pick.  The young core of the team, your Joe Staley, your Frank Gore, Patrick Willis, maybe Vernon Davis, and even your talented vets like Justin Smith, Takeo Spikes, and Nate Clements, all should be getting better or at least holding the status quo.  How does it figure that the Niners might be the worst team in the league this year?

The offense is truly, legitimately, in trouble.  There’s no savior on this offense: Frank Gore is as good as he’s ever been and the Niners offense has been as bad as they’ve ever been.  Niners fans will like what I have to say about Gore: in a true vacuum, he’s the second best running back in the NFL.  He’s better than Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Westbrook, Tomlinson, Portis, Steven Jackson, Jones-Drew all of them when you consider his blocking, receiving, and ability to covert first downs on power runs, only Ronnie Brown brings more to the table in my opinion as a complete player this year.  But Gore could probably rush for more yards in a vacuum than he could with the Niners.  It’s a power blocking OL with one true power piece, LT Joe Staley, who was the draft equivalent of former Pitt and current Carolina Panther RT Jeff Otah a year early.

There’s nothing on the outsides except developmental prospects and a quietly productive veteran who doesn’t command the other team’s top corner anymore (Issac Bruce).  Crabtree was drafted to change that, but he’s not in camp yet, and probably won’t be able to put together significant playing time as a first-year receiver.  Bruce might make this team, but even if he does, it’s Jason Hill and Josh Morgan who will be asked to break down opponents man coverage schemes.

Quarterback Shaun Hill is a good passer against zone coverages, but he’s the worst combination of passer for a team that has weapons that scream “TAKE WHAT THE D GIVES YOU.”  He’s just patient enough to convert a bunch of downfield throws before forcing the one questionable pass that kills the drive.  He’s a zone coverage killer on a team that doesn’t match up well in man coverage.  He offers you no downfield passing ability outside the numbers.  All of these factors make Hill a useful fantasy pickup when he plays the Lions, Rams, and Falcons this year.  Outside of those four games, I expect the 49ers passing offense to be a complete non-factor this year.  Big play ability could come in the form of TE Vernon Davis, but seriously, how long do you have to wait on an athletic tight end to become a downfield receiver before you change his role?  Davis might be at or past that point already.

Of the aforementioned young receivers, only Josh Morgan featured a yards per catch figure of better than 14 yards, though Dominique Ziegler is a small-sample size hero who could earn a bigger role, especially if Crabtree is delayed any longer.  Arnaz Battle, Jason Hill, and Issac Bruce are all good scheme fits in a run-first, run-second, hope-third offense.

The defense is not without hope, but even so, may not be very good.  What you have is one superstar who plays a premium position (just like the offense), a decent supply of above average veterans at every level, and then the rest of the defense is a decent mix of developing prospects (Kentwan Balmer, Reggie Smith, Manny Lawson), and gaping holes across the board, at OLB, CB, S, and NT.  It’s not a great defense, but a career year from a guy like Clements, and an improvement in the run defense, and you have a defense capable of replicating last year’s 7-9 record, at least given a compliant offense.  The star, Patrick Willis, is already one of the two or three best linebackers in the NFC, and he and Takeo Spikes create a nice interior LB tandem that can excel at read and react defensive plays.  That skill, combined with top coverage and even an acceptable pass rush makes an average to above average defense, but the 49ers are a team with mediocre coverage units–terrible in deep coverage–and no pass rush whatsoever.

And so, with a much different schedule this year, and a roster that doesn’t seem improved over last year but in a couple of minor places, the 49ers stare another losing season right in the face, as Mike Singletary tries to establish himself as a true NFL coach.  Next year, the 49ers have 2 first round draft picks, will presumably have Crabtree under contract (now just a 95% certainty), and will probably have a different quarterback under center, and will work on building something steady.  For now, avoiding embarrassment would be a good start to this season, though, if the best days for this franchise aren’t in 2010 and beyond, well…”second best organization in the bay area!” is not much of a marketing slogan.

49ers Camp, Santa Clara, CA

There’s probably more uncertainty in the defensive back seven than anywhere else on the team, but outside from the quarterback battle that Alex Smith can’t win, the offense features the single most intriguing story of training camp in my mind.  And no, it has nothing to do with Michael Crabtree.

3rd Quarterback: Nate Davis vs. Damon Huard

I find no third quarterback battle in the NFL this year to be more intriguing, probably because Graham Harrell did not get an NFL offer.  Nate Davis has all the tools of a franchise quarterback, but he dropped to the fifth round due to generally low interest in him.  The 49ers, presumably, had Davis more highly rated than most other teams did, and took him when there was a chance that he could have gone to them undrafted.  Damon Huard was a very early free agency signing from Kansas City, and San Francisco is probably the last stop on his career (he’s 35).  Huard has a future in coaching, but if they force Davis to the practice squad just to fit him in, it probably says a lot about the delusional mindset of the team.  Davis could pass Alex Smith on the depth chart in the middle of this year, and possibly see some playing time at the end of the year…as long as he wins this battle out of camp.

Linebacker:

The Niners are about 9 deep with NFL quality linebackers, so I won’t deem any of them “likely to be cut”; they could keep all nine.  But with 4th round pick LB Scott McKillop in the fold, veteran LB Jeff Ulbrich has a tenuous hold on a relevant role in the defense, and guys who are phased out of the defense at this age don’t tend to re-invent themselves as special teamers.  At the outside linebacker spot, watch for former Bengals supplemental draft pick Ahmad Brooks, who is getting a second chance to show he can play within his second chance as a professional football player.  He’s a highly touted player out of college who had character concerns and just hasn’t made a dent yet.  He’ll battle OLB Jay Moore for playing time.

Defensive back: Donald Strickland vs. Shawnte Spencer vs. Dashon Golston

The 49ers ran through about every nickelback imaginable last year as a part-time starter last year, only to find out that, in fact, none of these players are capable of being a starter.  Up to two of these three guys will find themselves back in the fold this season, but with undrafted free agents looming, I’ll set the “minimum” roster inclusion of this type of player at 1.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Michael Robinson
• WR Issac Bruce
• OT Adam Snyder
• LB Jeff Ulbrich
• S Mark Roman