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Joe Posnanski on baseball’s worst contracts:

2. Jose Guillen (Kansas City Royals). One more year at $12 million. I will admit that I’m grading this one on a curve … the Royals, more than other teams, cannot afford titanic blunders like this one. Everything about this deal baffled from the start. The Royals talked about wanting to get players who get on base — Guillen doesn’t and never has. The Royals talked about wanting players who are leaders — Guillen had played for nine different teams and was suspended for the playoffs by the Angels for inappropriate conduct. The Royals talked about players with good character — Guillen was facing a drug suspension when the Royals signed him (he was given amnesty).

But more than anything: Guillen was almost 32 when the Royals signed him to a three-year, $36 million deal … and he’s precisely the sort of player who starts going wildly downhill at that age. And … so he has. Guillen led the team in RBIs in 2008 despite having a pretty bad year. This year, he has been perhaps the worst everyday player in baseball. His power is gone — .371 slugging percentage — he can’t play the outfield any more and his quick bat (the one thing he always had) has slowed measurably. Funny thing is, I have found him to be quite a likable guy, and he has been brutally honest in his own self-assessment. “If I suck then I suck,” he says. “And I suck.” Probably not worth $36 million, but entertaining still.

The more you have invested in Jose Guillen, the less entertaining he is, trust me.  But what Posnanski says in defense of his likability, I think that’s a good place to build a case for keeping Jose Guillen.

Baseball contracts represent sunk costs to the teams that write them.  They are different from football in this aspect.  Vastly different.  18 million dollars of difference, in Guillen’s case.  But the short version is this: the Royals have no chance to recoup any of that money unless they can find another team willing to pay that contract.  Any chance of that happening ended this year.  So, with respect to the 2010 season the Royals save no money by choosing to not bring Guillen back as they do by choosing to do so.

So that would be a good reason to keep Guillen.  He’s not hurting you to be there, and you’d have to pay him just as much to make him go away, and you’re the Royals, so why not bring him back.  Guillen has never played three consecutive years in his career with the same team, and appears to like it in Kansas City, as much at least as Jose Guillen likes anything, and you’re not considering having him past 2010 anyway, so it makes sense to keep him.

That’s the common argument for.  Except one problem: he most certainly is hurting your team.

At age 33, Jose Guillen is too much of a defensive liability to play anywhere on the field full time.  He’s still got that hose for a right arm that has always been his signature defensive weapon, but even that’s been below average this year because he’s so limited with his range that he can’t get to balls quickly enough to crowhop and get the ball to the proper base in time.  Injuries have played a factor, certainly, but his injury history isn’t likely to improve as he gets older.

Even worse, Guillen’s power has completely disappeared, and along with that, the way pitchers pitch him has completely changed.  No longer is he a guy who you have to be able to throw your offspeed pitches to; pitchers with a strong fastball can get Guillen out rather effortlessly.  He offers nothing with the bat, and offers nothing with the glove.  In other words, he’s worse than worthless and you can’t justify bringing him back at any cost next year.  He has to go.

Both sides of the debate have merit.  But the Royals need to make a decision that could shape the direction of their 2010 team, and they need to be right.

Look at Gary Sheffield: he’s hitting .286/.381/.472 for the New York Mets this year at a cost of 400k after the Detroit Tigers outright released him from their organization.  The Tigers, of course, owe Sheffield nearly $13 million for this season, the last of his deal.  The .472 slugging pct. is right in line with what Sheffield has done the past 4 years, save last year in Detroit when he hit .225/.326/.400.  Sheff’s walk rate has actually decreased from his Detroit days, and the power hasn’t so much reappeared as much as the batting average has just returned to a more expected level.  Sheffield would have been completely overpaid in Detroit at $13 million, but that’s never been the point.  The point is, that money was a sunk cost, Sheffield gets on base, and though he’s not even an average corner outfielder at this point in his career, Fangraphs estimates his value to the Mets at about $2.9 million above replacement.  If Sheffield was still on the Tigers, he would be their second most valuable outfielder, and in a bit of irony, would be a good excuse to not give Magglio Ordonez the opportunity to have his $18 million option vest later this year based on playing time.

Guillen’s situation is not nearly as clear cut.  He was walking more often than ever before this year, but even if his batting average and consequent slugging percentage were to rebound, Guillen could have his best offensive year as a Royal at age 34.  But he’d probably fight injuries the whole way, he’d offer no value defensively, and back to the Sheffield comparison for a second, Gary never lost the ability to hit a fastball.  In that down year in 2008, he just had an abnormally rough year against the breaking ball.  Since joining the Royals, Guillen has not been a good fastball hitter, an anomaly from the rest of his career.  Unless he rediscovers the ability to hit fastballs, it’s hart to see any rebound as a hitter for Guillen.

I think the key to this decision for the Royals is whether or not they can first replace Guillen in right field.  As a part time player, Guillen’s improving walk rate can be viewed as a positive, and he’s shown the ability to post an on base percentage in the .330-.350 range in the past, which is valuable to the Royals.  But it’s different if the Royals feel like they need to put Guillen in the field to justify his value.  If they look at their roster, and don’t see where he fits in on their bench, it’s probably better to cut bait right now.  If you don’t let him out into the field but once in a blue moon, however, he doesn’t cost you runs in the field, and then the Royals might be able to get a positive value hitter at the DH position.  Maybe.

A lot of this depends on their decision to bring back Mike Jacobs, who is still under team control, but could cost in the $3 million vicinity.  Without Jacobs, there’s probably a spot on the bench for Jose Guillen.  Jacobs would be “cheaper” than Guillen, and by a lot, but he also represents money that the tight-budgeted Royals are not yet on the hook for.  Dropping a player who does nothing but hit pop ups and fly balls is an easy way to reduce the payroll.  On the other hand, he has more upside than Guillen as a hitter, although, probably not worth a marginal $3 million dollars.  Jacobs’ bat might not be as good as Guillen’s currently, but it’s expected that he might post another .500 slugging season in his career whereas Guillen is probably done with that type of production.

But Guillen is a right-handed bat, his contract is already paid, and the Royals have only left handed hitters to bring up next year (save for a potential Guillen replacement, Jordan Parraz).  So given the situations surrounding this contract, it’s not all that hard to envision a situation where Guillen does play out his contract with the Royals.  But as a franchise that’s trying to get on the right track, it’s important that they carefully consider all their options, and if they can find a cost effective solution that offers better performance than Guillen, that they make sure to take advantage of an opportunity when it presents itself.

Yes, even if that means that another AL Central team will cut an eight figure check to a player no longer on the roster.

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Cardinals

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The San Diego Chargers enter the season as the team most likely to find itself in the postseason (at least an 80% probability), but forgive me for arguing that this hardly feels like a year of destiny for the Chargers.

I’m not worried about the passing offense.  That’s a good place to start for this team’s strength.  The biggest stories of 2008 for the Chargers were the rebound of QB Philip Rivers and the emergence of WR Vincent Jackson.  Now, it’s TE Antonio Gates’ turn to rebound, and don’t underestimate the ability of backup RB Darren Sproles and starting FB Mike Tolbert to be gamebreakers in the passing game as receivers.  The overall product is a completely sufficient set of weapons for Rivers, and something that the Chargers can hang their hat on going forward.

But for the rest of the team, it’s too easy to poke holes in who they are in their current form.  They sport a very pedestrian defensive front, which will look to the return of pro bowl LB Shawne Merriman to provide the oomph factor in this hard hitting defense.  The Chargers posted a below average adjusted sack rate last season after being above average in 2007, and the difference was almost certainly related to Merriman’s absence.  They added depth with the selection of first round LB Larry English out of Northern Illinois.  Up front, some combination of Ryon Bingham and Jacques Cesaire will replace Igor Olshansky at RDE in the 3-4 scheme.  His loss hurts the depth there, but they can replace his production easily.  Letting him walk was the correct move.

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The quality of the entire defense is entirely dependent on it’s secondary.  It’s really just that simple.  And the solution seems simple as well: either Antonio Cromartie regains some of his 2007 form, or 2008 first rounder Antoine Cason needs to replace him in the lineup.  I called Cason the steal of the 2008 draft when he went to San Diego at the end of the first round (he was my highest rated corner), and following 9 passes defended and 2 INTs, compared to Cromartie’s 10 PD and 2 INT as a starter, he appears ready to explode as a second year player.  The Chargers are a team with just one safety, Eric Weddle, and an endless supply of the special teamer type who doubles as the team’s strong safety.  Clinton Hart doesn’t play teams, because he’s the starter, but the team would be just as well off with Steve Gregory or Paul Oliver there.

But the assumption that the Chargers can just pull this together is far from a given.  The strength of the defense in 2006 and 2007 was built behind an unsustainable high level of turnovers: in 2006 the Chargers with 3rd in turnover differential, in 2007 they were first.  Sure, they remain the only team in history to intercept Peyton Manning 6 times in a game, but if they only pick him off three times, they probably don’t win that game…etc.  Last year, the Chargers were 11th in turnover differential (with an improved offense), and won only 8 times.

The defense will improve over last year.  It should be above average behind the return of it’s superstar.  I think, to predict an improvement past that would be wishful thinking.

So, the key factor separating the Chargers from being the AFC’s most domiant team is the strength of it’s running game.  The Chargers are a great running team on a year to year basis, perhaps the most dominant rushing team of the decade, but it’s production last year was rather pedestrian.  Darren Sproles’ playoff game aside, against the Colts mind you, the Chargers had to ride Philip Rivers’ arm to victory because LaDainian Tomlinson’s legs failed them for the first time in his career.

The failure I speak of is a relative term: Tomlinson was neither bad or without his value in 2008.  He was simply not productive in the way the Chargers have come to expect over the years.  So what can the Chargers look for in 2009?  A return to dominance from it’s running game?  The Chargers replaced RG Mike Goff with Kynan Forney, which doesn’t seem like an upgrade, but the rest of the line has been together for the better part of the last three years.  The evidence does suggest that Tomlinson has more left in the tank, but now that he’s turned 30, he’s getting very close to the end of the road.  Curtis Martin is a pretty good comparable: at the age of 31, he led the NFL in rushing, but never did much after that.  Depending on his usage patterns, you might see Tomlinson remain a legitimate No. 1 back for the next 3-4 years, or you might see him explode out of nowhere for a 1,500 yard season and then watch him disappear as surprisingly as he came.  One place where Tomlinson should improve this year is on the goal line.  His 11 rushing TD’s were well down from his career average, but given the power ability of his offensive line, his improved health should matter nowhere more than in short yardage situations.

The optimism for the Chargers this year seems to be based around an expectation for the defense to return to form, as well as a realization of the Chargers as a team that lost games last year in every way imaginable and still made the playoffs.  They lost on last second passes, botched fumble rulings, clock-chewing, season-defining drives and the like.  And when it came down to it, they blew their top competition out of the water.  Patriots? 3 TD blowout.  Brett Favre?  Thoroughly dominated.  Tampa Bay? Offensive explosion.  And on the season’s final week, with everything to play for, they gave Jay Cutler a taste of playoff-type football as a consolation prize.  The Chargers often demonstrated their excellence, but just barely often enough to win the AFC’s weakest division.

The truth is that a normalization of their luck in close games might have lead to another win or two, but the Chargers still had to come back for two wins against division rival Kansas City.  While we can talk all day about how the Chargers vastly outperformed their 8-win record (which they did), they went 5-1 in the AFC West last year because the Chiefs absolutely choked away two wins.  If Kansas City runs out the clock on San Diego in those games, it wouldn’t have mattered if they had gotten more fortunate in play outside the division.  The 2008 Chargers became the first team to overcome a 3 game deficit with 3 games to go in NFL history, but they were an onside kick away from being eliminated from the postseason at the hands of Kansas City.  The wall to wall effort from this team simply wasn’t there in every week.  And maybe it all goes back to their head coach.  So there you have it.

Chargers Camp, San Diego, CA

The camp battles for the Chargers are pretty much of the back-up variety.

Running back: Michael Bennett vs. Gartrell Johnson

Johnson, an impressive rookie from Colorado State, might be headed for the practice squad so that Bennett can get some carries as a Charger this year.  Bennett was signed prior to the playoffs last year as a free agent, and he’s been a pretty good player over his career, but not quite good enough for anyone to hold onto him.  He actually just has been unlucky, as pretty much everywhere he went, he ran into a top talent that he did not realize he would be competition with when he signed.  Johnson probably will be plucked from the practice squad by some team with an injury.  The 4th rounder that was spent on Johnson though might imply that the Chargers will keep both these guys for depth, and make their cut downs elsewhere.

Defensive end: Ryon Bingham vs. Jacques Cesaire

Cesaire was a starter back before the team had Luis Castillo, he makes a better backup anyway.   It’s Bingham’s job to lose, and as a backup on the Chargers for five years, it’s darn near about time.

Linebacker: Brandon Siler vs. Darry Beckwith

Beckwith shocked plenty of league observers by falling from a 2nd or 3rd round projection to the status of undrafted, but in San Diego, he finds a team desperate for depth at the inside linebacker position.  He’s probably an ideal fit for a 3-4 scheme, so I like him over Siler who made it onto the roster at the end of last year.

Cornerback: Cletis Gordon vs. Simeon Castille

Castille is a Bengals’ castoff who faces long odds in San Diego against Cletis Gordon, who himself already beat the odds to go from undrafted special teamer to a valuable depth player and a guy who made the starting lineup in December of last year.

Safety: C.J. Spillman vs. Kevin Ellison

Kevin Ellison was a 6th round pick out of USC, but this is an interesting camp battle because Spillman was a projected 4th or 5th rounder from Marshall who a lot of teams had ranked higher than Ellison.  It would not at all shock me or the Chargers if Spillman proved to be the better player in camp.

Surprise Cuts?

• WR Buster Davis
• TE Kris Wilson
• G/C Scott Mruczkowski
• LB Tim Dobbins
• S Clinton Hart

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I’ve always been a firm believer that Matt Leinart would be the future in Arizona, but having a night to digest the Cards’ first preseason game, I’m not entirely convinced that it’s the case anymore.  Not so much that he isn’t the future in Arizona, but that, if he is, the future is not now.

It’s something that you have to watch the mundane portions of the preseason to realize: that so much of the way the Cardinals offense has evolved over the past 12 months relies on things that Warner does well to get a competitive advantage.  The Cardinals are one of the very few teams in the league (and I guess we can reasonably assume the Chiefs are as well) who will beat your third down blitz with a quick throw and run after catch.

The preference for this in a pro style offense is to make sure you have enough blockers to pick up the blitzes, and then let the quality of blocking execution decide whether or not the offense will convert.  If a quarterback gets 4.0-4.5 seconds against a blitz to convert, it’s a near certainty that the ball will be squeezed in there.  But the Cardinals don’t really approach pass protection in a conventional way since it never really worked for them anyway.  They’ll block with 6 guys a lot, but against an overload blitz, the team is reliant on Warner to get the ball not only out of his hand quickly, but to the only receiver on the field who is open enough to pick up the yards.

In other words, the system fits the skill set of a guy from the arena league, and limits that of a traditional pro-style quarterback from a cushy USC program.  None of this is a knock on Leinart as a prospect, but it puts the 2009 Cardinals between a rock and a hard place in terms of their chances at repeating as NFC West champs.  Unless the system can also make Warner resistant to a natural Kurt Warner injury season, they might find themselves in the middle of the year playing with the backup in a system that forces him out of his comfort level.

Consider this a trade off for the improbable playoff run.  The Cardinals simply were not going to make it past the first round of the playoffs without an offensive adjustment to take advantage of their many strengths.  It’s not like the Cardinals were a wide open passing offense for a majority of the 2008 season.  They did a lot of empty back formations and a lot of shotguns, and a lot of horizontal passing, but with limited success.  Warner won the job because he showed a better command of the offense than did Leinart, but he didn’t really take over games until the playoffs.

There’s no reason that, coming right out of the gate, that the Cardinals can’t channel some of that playoff magic in their passing offense.  But, save for one clutch run (reception, actually) in the NFC Championship by Tim Hightower, the man who provided the balance in the playoffs for this offense was Edgerrin James.   He’s gone.  The Cardinals will likely use a combination of Tim Hightower and Jason Wright early in the season as first round pick Beanie Wells gets acclimated to the game, but Wells is a guy who was taken to be a backfield mate of Matt Leinart, not Warner.

There’s also something to be said for the amount of development time it takes to create offensive chemistry.  But, this isn’t just about a comfort level with the interpersonal relationships between the players, it’s more about defining roles in your offense and fitting people into those roles.  If you change the quarterback and leave the offense, the new quarterback struggles.   If you change the offense, the players around him struggle, and you waste potential transition time.

Which makes this sort of a transitional year for the Cardinals.  It could have been a complete transitional year; they didn’t have to extend the contract of Warner through 2010.  The fact that they did just makes a quick start to the 2009 season an absolute necessity.  If they start 5-1 or 6-2, it makes it easy to take the foot off the pedal a little bit while still competing to win the NFC West.  If they start 3-3, the aging Cards have absolutely no competitive advantage which would suggest that they are better than they would have shown.  A 3-3 start means an 8-8 or worse finish.

Again, this isn’t about the limitations of Ken Whisenhunt as a coach: the Cards enter 2009 as one of the five most dangerous teams in football.  It’s more about what he traded to reach those heights, which was a sustainable, long term winning cycle built around Matt Leinart and a hard nosed defense.  Whisenhunt’s coaching job down the stretch last year will be remembered as one of the best jobs by a coach in history: they very nearly won the Super Bowl, beating four of the best teams in football along the way.  I’m just pointing out that the scheme that helped to create this performance hinges on the health of so many veterans and players with irreplacable skills that this same offense will eventually turn into a liability.  It’s simply an educated prediction that this inevitable occurance will happen in the next four months.  It could happen on a Saturday in January.  They could win the super bowl, followed by a week one collapse in 2010.

If you look at the defense, you can conclude this team is much closer to sustainable winning than Kansas City, Denver, or Detroit.  They have a star at every level, from Darnell Dockett to Karlos Dansby to Adrian Wilson.  The starting corners, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and Bryant McFadden, should be strong.  The defense gives up a lot of big plays: we can’t in good faith say that Antrell Rolle is an adequate free safety, and the depth in the secondary is largely unimpressive, though 4th round CB Greg Toler should help that.  Otherwise, the defense has some power issues up the middle, and relies on the in-the-box presence of SS Adrian Wilson to solidify a finesse run defense, but it’s a scheme that seems to work for them.  Except for the big plays.

Whiz can always re-invent himself, and his offense anytime he wants to, but not without concessions.  That’s the difference between a team in rebuilding and a team in transition.  The Cardinals are not rebuilding, the backups are the future on the offensive line and in the backfield.  The sky is the limit for a team that finds itself in what SI’s Ross Tucker described as a “Two Horse Race” for the division with Seattle.  But for them to reach their potential, the milk must stay fresh well past the expiration date.  The team that takes the field in week one is probably every bit as good as you expect them to be, but the real question is which Cards team will take the field in week seven?

Cardinals Camp, NAU at Flagstaff

An average amount of camp battles to be decided in Flagstaff, most more important than the media-created Brian St. Pierre vs. Matt Leinart.

Tight End: Ben Patrick vs. Anthony Becht

Patrick tested positive for a banned substance, and will miss the first four games of this season.  So the choice becomes: 16 games of the steady veteran, or 12 games of the high upside talent?  Yeah, the odds are still against Becht to make the roster as the third tight end, but before the suspension, he was just a camp body.

Offensive Tackle: Trevor Canfield vs. Brandon Pearce

Canfield was a Guard prospect out of the university of Cincinnati who the Cardinals are trying to convert into a run blocking backup tackle.  Pearce brings the versatility to line up at both tackle spots as well as the occasional appearance at guard, but it’s tough when you’re battling for a roster spot with a hand picked draftee.  You really have to seperate from the pack.

Defensive End: Keilen Dykes vs. Rodney Leisle

Dykes is ahead of Leisle on the depth chart, who is trying to make the team after not seeing significant action in this league since being on the 2006 Saints.  Dykes has the shorter path to a roster spot.

Safety: Keith Lewis vs. Matt Ware

Remember Matt Ware, developing Eagles safety?  Well, he’s no longer a prospect, kind of like Lewis who has been a valuable special teamer in San Francisco the last two seasons, but hasn’t started since 2006.  Matt Ware probably won’t make it to September 1, but he’s on here because it might very well be his last shot in this league.

Surprise Cuts?

• WR Jerheme Urban
• TE Leonard Pope
• NT Bryan Robinson
• NT Alan Branch
• LB Bertrand Berry