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Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts

On December 4, 1977, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ all-time record dropped to 0-26.  No team in NFL history had ever lost that many games in a row.  The Detroit Lions have a chance to make history this year.

The Lions’ losing streak currently stands at 17.  If the Lions are still winless on November 22, the Browns will head to Ford Field and try to become the 27th consecutive team to beat the Detroit Lions.

How likely is this?  On average, it’s about every 2 or 3 years that any team in the NFL loses it’s first 10 games in a season.  The 2007 Dolphins and 2008 Lions have done it in back to back seasons.  Ultimately though, it’s incredibly improbable that the Lions will not win one of their first 10 games.  In fact, they’re more likely to start 6-4 than they are to start 0-10.

You can break down the Lions’ season into it’s four quarters by the quarterback who took most of the snaps in each month: Jon Kitna, then Dan Orlovsky, then Daunte Culpepper, and finally Orlovsky again, and see a very different team under one guy than the others.  When the Lions got close to wins, it was because they had Dan Orlovsky staying in the field of play, and making plays with his arm while limiting turnovers.  The Lions lost by a combined 21 points in four consecutive games between Weeks 6-9, which is more unlucky than bad.  The Danute Culpepper midseason signing was made out of part desperation and part attribution error: quarterback was the least of the Lions worries last year.  Culpepper was obviously unprepared to play immediately, and no game demonstrated this better than a Thanksgiving Day thrashing at the hands of the Titans.

Going forward, having Culpepper on board makes a lot of sense, he’s an established passer with a lengthy history of success in both good and bad situations, and there’s thinks that 2009 first overall pick Matthew Stafford can learn from him.  It might have made more sense to go with Orlovsky for the next few years, but new sheriff Jim Schwartz’ message is clear: he’s not in it to win it one year and call it a career.  He wants sustainable winning in Detroit.

In many ways, so much of this franchises’ future fortunes is tied to Stafford, in the sense that there’s no way that the team can succeed if Stafford personally fails.  There’s no safety net in this plan, “well, if our 80 million dollar man fails, we can always stall with x veteran and try to win without him.”  That may have worked for Schwartz’ last team, but the Lions’ plan B will be to win despite Stafford, not with him on the bench.  Of course, plan A for the Lions is much, much stronger than that.  It’s to surround Stafford with the best talent so that his development hardly hits a snag and he can realize his true potential very early in his career.  So what do you do with a team that already has Calvin Johnson to throw to and Kevin Smith to run the football?  If you’re thinking like Jim Schwartz, then you wanted to add the biggest, nastiest Tight End in the draft, and they landed Brandon Pettigrew with the 20th overall pick.  He’s like both an offensive tackle and a receiver out there, the kind of player who makes those around him better.

You have to wonder if Schwartz and team president Martin Mayhew are simply going to use the Bill Polian method to rebuilding an awful defense: focus the rebuilding effort on loading up the offense with superstars, and use you late round draft picks on the defense as they carefully add pieces towards a gradual improvement.  Of course, if FS Louis Delmas is who they think he is, it may speed the process a lot.  The 33rd overall pick has wowed in camp.  They’ll need all the help they can get–no defense in NFL history struggled as much as the Lions’ did last year.

Despite all the major flaws with a team on the longest losing streak in  the last 32 years, it’s not all that inconceivable to suggest that the Lions could use the automatic playoff bid offered to the division champion in the NFC North to pull a Dolphins-like turnaround.  They aren’t quite as good as the Dolphins were going into last year, and although the career stories between Pennington and Culpepper are similar, Culpepper is not capable of playing like Pennington over 16 games.  Furthermore, Matt Stafford is likely not capable of immediate success with the current team.  But the running game should hit the ground running so to speak, and we’ll get a good look at Jim Schwartz’ re-tooled defense early in the year: they get the Saints in week one, then the Vikings who were the only team that the Lions defense looked good against last year, and in week four, they get their first look at Jay Cutler (who was injured when the Broncos came to town in 2007) with the Bears.

We’re probably looking at another last place Lions team, but the hope that Lions fans have towards their team is legitimate.  They’re not a threat to do anything in the postseason get there, but quirkier anomalies have resulted in more ridiculous things than a team like the Lions sneaking into the back door of the playoffs following the worst season in their less than stellar history.

Lions Camp, Allen Park, MI

The Lions, as you would expect from a team that lost all of it’s games last year, will decide many things in training camp.  Only the quarterback situation was solidified in the offsesaon, and while there is the “who will be the opening day starter” question, there’s no doubt it’s  some version of “Culpepper now, Stafford later.”  Once they go Stafford, they won’t go back.

Wide Receiver: Eric Fowler vs. John Standeford vs. Keary Colbert

Colbert has the lead in this camp battle, and he’s the vet of the group, but he’s also proven to be very limited physically in prior stops.  Standeford was the Lions’ No. 2 receiver down the stretch last year, but being the incumbent on this team means very little.  Fowler, on the other hand, is a local kid out of D-II Grand Valley who is running with the threes right now, but is stronger physically than Standeford or Colbert.

Tight End: Dan Gronkowski vs. Casey Fitzsimmons vs. Carson Butler

Gronkowski was a 7th round pick by the Lions out of Maryland, who has been more impressive in camp thus far than fellow rookie Carson Butler, which says more about the ability of this team to make late round draft picks than anything about Butler.  Fitzsimmons is the Matt Millen binky who has made it this far, which means he’ll probably get picked up after he gets cut by the Lions.  My what a difference 5 months makes.

Right Tackle: Jon Jansen vs. Gosder Cherilus

If Cherilus is ready, Jim Scwartz will get him on the field, but as far as one or two year stop gaps go, Jansen is a pretty good one.

Offensive Tackle: Lydon Murtha vs. Ephraim Salaam

Murtha was another one of those intriguing late round picks made by the Lions.  I like the ingenuity the Lions showed by taking a mammoth player in the mold of Ravens LT Jared Gaither.  Salaam has been around forever, but he’s playing for a different team every year now, which means this is Murtha’s spot to lose.

Outside Linebacker: Darnell Bing vs. Jordon Dizon

Here’s the Matt Millen era in a nutshell.  One year into Dizon’s career, we’re talking about his place on the team.  He basically has no shot at a player of the future role with the Lions.  Darnell Bing, of course, has already had his two chances to play into a team’s future and right now, profiles as a stop gap.  Detroit doesn’t need a stop gap.  They need a savior.

Safety: Stuart Schweigert vs. Daniel Bullocks

Bullocks has been embarrassing thus far, and he’s strictly a fourth safety at this point in his career, though that should qualify him for a roster spot over Schweigert, a system guy who can’t find the right system.

Surprise Cuts?

• WR Bryant Johnson
• OT Jon Jansen
• DT Ikaika Alama-Francis
• CB William James
• S Kalvin Pearson

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Dolphins

I guess most of my thoughts on the 2009 Indianapolis Colts can be summed up with this prediction: they will post top ten defensive statistics in 2009.  Not offensive.  Defensive.

The implication that statement makes is that I believe the offense will remain the “Colts offense”, and despite some OL issues, bygones will be bygones–*Peyton Manning wins another MVP award*–etc., etc.  That’s the most likely scenario.  But I have enough concern about this offensive group that I’m not even willing to make the same prediction about the offense that I made about the defense.  And the difference might separate a 9-7 team that misses the playoffs from an 11-5 super bowl contender.

The offense is obviously weak in two minor spots that a good team should be able to plug, but the offense is potentially leaky in a few other spots.  In a perfect storm, the floodgates may open and keep the Colts out of the postseason.  First, the focal points of the Colts this offseason have centered around the LT position, where just three days ago, Charlie Johnson unseated Tony Ugoh in a surprise move.  It’s a questionable move, easily second guessable.  Ugoh is a pretty good tackle prospect heading into the middle of his career, but apparently the Colts were unhappy with his development, enough so that they’ll start this season with the imminently replaceable Charlie Johnson.  Prediction: 5 games into the season, Ugoh will be back.

The other shoes the team has to fill are it’s biggest in history (non-hightops version), those of WR Marvin Harrison.  There’s no doubt that the Harrison of 2007 and 2008 was just a shell of his former self, but it’s a little bit different when someone else is actually lining up where Peyton Manning expects to see Harrison.  That man will likely be second year guy Pierre Garcon.  Garcon has been impressive in camp, but, well…I guess the point of this paragraph is that he’s probably not a good Marvin Harrison replacement.

Luckily, the Colts as they often do, planned for this transition in advance when they drafted Anthony Gonzalez out of Ohio State in 2007.  Gonzalez is good.  Very good.  He’ll settle in nicely as the number two receiver next to Reggie Wayne, who is as good as anyone in the conference.  It follows in the logical pattern that TE Dallas Clark will see a bigger role, but I’m not sure he will.  Clark has never been the first option in the offense and he never enjoyed a more significant role in the offense than last year.  Clark is now 30, and probably not capable of increasing his role to career high levels.  The only players at the position who were are more integral part of their offenses last year were: Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, and Chris Cooley.

So what else ailes the Colts?  Well, the team decided at the conclusion of last season that they couldn’t get further than the first round of the playoffs as unbalanced as they were offensively.  As the offensive line has declined, Joseph Addai as trekked steadily backwards in production from a 4.8 YPC average to 4.1 and last year a 3.5.  They drafted Donald Brown out of Connecticut because they realized that as the offensive line evolves, it may not suit Addai’s running style.  Bill Polian is a thinker who is generally aware of his team’s issues, and it’s just incredibly rare for a team as strong through the air as the Colts to have as much of a problem pounding the rock as they did last year.  I mean, it’s one thing for yard per game average to be low for teams who like to put it in the air, but when you force the opponent to put 5 and 6 guys into coverage on every play, running should be simple.  Only the Cardinals struggled as much as the Colts did last year of teams who had successful passing games.

The running game should be better this year, but history has been kind of a mixed bag on those teams with such pronounced splits between the success of the running game and the passing game.  The 06 Ravens, 06 Steelers, and 07 Seahawks all had disproportionately bad running games compared to their strong passing games, and none of them improved on offense or in the running game the following year.  However, the 2007 Texans, 2007 Saints, and 2007 all saw rebounds in the running game in the following season.  It should be reported for full disclosure that only the 2007 Texans changed their feature back.

The Steelers are a particularly interesting case.  They were virtually the same offensive team in 2007 as they were in 2006, despite changing their coordinator (Ken Whisenhunt –> Bruce Arians) and head coach.  Then, in 2008 (with the same coaches, quarterback, running back as in 2007), the split corrected itself (though the overall strength declined).  What does this mean?  Probably nothing, but it’s an interesting trend none-the-less.

Passing game strength tends to be one of the most consistent year to year stats: it takes a long time to build a great passing unit, but once you have it, it’s likely to stay for a long time.  The top five passing offenses in 2008 by DVOA were: San Diego, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Atlanta, and the Giants.  Atlanta is a bit of a surprise in the top ten, but the Giants have been building their passing game since 2004, which makes it hardly a shock that they eventually got there.  Not so coincidentally, the bottom five passing offenses were Cincinnati, Detroit, Oakland, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  With the exception of the steady declining/injury-riddled Bengals, no one there is a shocker.

If I aggregate all this data into a macro-level offensive prediction, I think we can guess that the Colts offense will regress a hair from last year, but that the running game will return to above average levels and the passing game will remain significantly above average, if a little bit closer to the mean.  We’ll see if Polian’s offseason moves can help to keep the Colts’ machine greased and producing at current levels.

But back to the defense: it’s a different system entirely than what the Vikings run, but the combination up front of Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Ed Johnson (who was cut last year after being arrested on marijuana charges, but returns to the team) is as strong a three man group as any DL in the NFL.  They protect MLB Gary Brackett, who has produced at a super star level of play the last two years, with all the notoriety of an undrafted rookie, which coincidentally, he once was.  And the secondary, though currently going through some injury struggles in camp, is the best it’s ever been.  It’s got two superstars: CB Kelvin Hayden and S Bob Sanders, and it’s depth at the safety position could start for a lot of teams.  The weak link is the highest drafted player in it, CB Marlin Jackson, who is most famous for intercepting Tom Brady to close out the 2006 AFC Championship win.  The Colts, historically a very patient defense, are planning on bringing the heat this year, which gives the defense another dimension.  I like the combination of the potentially reliable running game and a pressure defense.  Peyton Manning’s job should be way easier this year.

Which, as concluded above, might need to be the case.  Last year, the Colts had nearly everything go wrong starting with Peyton’s knee on the first day of training camp, offensive line issues throughout the early part of the season (no Saturday), ineffectiveness of the running game and Marvin Harrison, and Manning led them to 3 wins in their first 7 games on one leg and with no help.  The guy may be superman, but it’s worth pointing out that in a year where Tennessee won 13 games and the division, the Colts were a mere two losses away from missing the playoffs entirely, and no team is likely to win a game this year like the one where the Colts trailed 15-0 to the Vikings at the end of the 3rd quarter in Week 2, or the one where they trailed by 3 scores to the Texans in week 5.  By December, the might have been the Colts of old, but they can’t wait that long to get things figured out this year, and if that means relieving Manning of some of his substantial offensive duties, that’s what they have to do.

The Colts are a 10 or 11 win team on paper, and if they live up to expectations and win the AFC South, it will be a record setting 8th consecutive trip to the NFL playoffs, and 10 times in 12 seasons since Manning took over at QB as a rookie in 1998.  But all 2008 demonstrated was that the Colts are still very much protected by Manning’s greatness.  An improvement on defense should improve the team more than an offensive decline will hinder it, but the AFC will be more competitive at the top this year, and the margin between the Colts being the team that represents the conference in the Super Bowl and missing the playoffs could be 2-3 plays.  As of this very moment though, I’m confident that the Colts will be the team that represents the AFC in the super bowl.

Here’s hoping I don’t regret this bold prediction in October.

Colts Camp, Terre Haute, IN

A very minimal amount of decisions are made preseason every year in Indy.  This team usually has a good sense of identity going into camp every year, and lets the early months of the season decide a lot of minor things, since they are usually so good coming out of the gate.

Wide Receiver: Pierre Garcon vs. Austin Collie

Behind these guys, it’s really a wide open race for a roster spot; hard even to identify the contenders from the camp scrubs.  But it’s clear that one of these two will be the third receiver in the Colts starting lineup on opening day.  According to SI.com’s Peter King, Anthony Gonzalez’ positioning in the offense will be decided by this camp battle, so you can imagine that this is very much a long term decision the Colts will be making.  Looks like Pierre Garcon should be a top 25 pick in dynasty leagues if things hold.

Offensive Line: Michael Toudouze vs. Corey Hilliard

Two developmental tackles who provide depth on the current team, you have to wonder if Tony Ugoh’s move to the bench will influence the outcome of the battle to be the ninth offensive lineman on the Colts roster.  It seems that it might, although in whose favor I have no idea.

Defensive End: Kenyuta Dawson vs. Marcus Howard

The Colts love to rotate all of their active lineman into the game, so the winner of this battle could walk into 2 or 3 sacks this year.

Outside Linebacker: Jordan Senn vs. Ramon Huber

This is strictly a one year special teams contract.  The Colts have excellent depth at linebacker already, and actually, both Senn and Huber are likely to get the boot at the expense of a fifth safety such as Jamie Silva, but I thought I’d throw the names out there since preseason injuries are a relevant factor and the Colts bothered to put both these guys on their first depth chart.

Surprise Cuts?

• QB Jim Sorgi
• RB Mike Hart
• TE Jacob Tamme
• DT Terrence Taylor
• CB Tim Jennings

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers

If you can justify, without using the word “Wildcat”, exactly how an offense that averaged only 21 points per game is among the best offenses in the NFL, think I think you’ll understand what I’m getting at in this article.

For the first two weeks of the 2008 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins looked like a team that picked up where they had left off the year before.  After their week four bye, the Dolphins were one of the better teams in the NFL for most of the season.  But it’s that a formula of that one buzz word, and a certain divisional opponent in that transitional pre-bye week that dominates the story of the 2008 division champ Dolphins.

Then again, if you were only allowed to choose one game from the 2008 NFL season to show an unfamiliar party what they missed out on, you’d probably take the week three Dolphins-Patriots match-up at Foxborough for any number of reasons.  For one thing, the game was not expected to be competitive.  It wasn’t.  Understand that the Dolphins just lost by 3 TDs to the Cardinals in Arizona the week before.  The Patriots were 2-0.  It ended up being the strongest offensive, and defensive performance that the Dolphins would enjoy all season.  The Patriots, of all teams, appeared to be completely unprepared for the slaughter that occurred, and Matt Cassel was no one’s version of an NFL quarterback that day.

Essentially, the Dolphins were able to coast from that game, all the way to the next match-up with New England (a 48-28 shootout loss that was closer than the score suggested) before anyone bothered to revisit their validity as a playoff contender.  The loss snapped a 4 game winning streak, and dropped the Dolphins to 6-5.  Even one more loss in the final five games would have opened the door for New England to make the playoffs, but the Dolphins had maybe the softest 5-game stretch in NFL history to finish the season.

I’m not exaggerating.  They played the 2-14 Rams, the 7-9 Bills, the 7-9 49ers, the 2-14 Chiefs, and the 9-7 Jets, all at the high point of each team’s struggles.  Led by their offense, the Dolphins took care of business against their inferior competition, and made it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  The point man was really a simple solution: when the Jets released Chad Pennington, it made sense for the Dolphins to get him into their camp.  Pennington has health issues, but he’s one of the most effective quarterbacks of this era.  He was drafted by the staff that Bill Parcells built with the Jets.  But the Dolphins spent the last eight years throwing valuable second round picks at quarterback non-solutions such as A.J. Feeley, Daunte Culpepper, and John Beck.  Parcells has not hesitated to throw more second rounders at quarterbacks, but his depth chart now has Pennington, and two legit prospects in Chad Henne and Pat White.

Unfortunately, this is still much the same team that went 1-15 two years ago, and the playoff disaster against Baltimore was a harbringer of things to come.  In consecutive games last year, the Dolphins beat the Patriots and the Chargers, two of the AFC elites.  The only other victory they had over an 8+ game winner was the Week 17 playoff clincher against half a Brett Favre and the sleepwalking Jets.  The Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, and Ravens all thoroughly dominated the Dolphins at different points during the season, and when the Texans are listed on the list of toughest opponents on your schedule, it’s safe to say that it’s only going to get harder in the future.

The Dolphins defense has more horses this year than it did last year, but it’s still miles from where it needs to be when this team is a legit super bowl contender.  It’s one quality starter is Joey Porter, who led the AFC in sacks last season.  Jason Taylor returns to the Dolphins as a part time player to round out a very strong LB core, and the Dolphins like their defensive line depth, but their problems with the lack of a second impact player become more noticeable with the presence of a patchwork secondary.  The Dolphins addressed this via the draft, but did so with high ceiling players with bust potential in Illinois CB Vontae Davis (brother of Vernon) and Utah CB Sean Smith (no relation to either Steve).  Neither will replace Will Allen as the team’s No. 1 corner this year, and the signing of Eric Green from Arizona seems like a non-solution or a scheme fit at best.

Still, an offense with the mini triplets of Chad Pennington/Ronnie Brown/Ted Ginn combined with a potent offensive line means that the Dolphins’ chances are tied to their offensive unit for a second straight year.  There’s going to be some turnover regression–as good as Pennington is, he can’t sustain a 1.5% INT rate or a 4.8% sack rate (plus sacks that lead to fumbles).  But the offensive firepower to score enough points to balance out the turnovers is there.  They can average 26 or 27 PPG with this offensive group.

The Dolphins aren’t likely to make it back to the playoffs this year, but after a brief taste of the NFL playoffs, it’s the long term picture that should take center stage in 2009.

Dolphins Camp, Davie, FL

Head Coach Tony Sparano has a tendency to use training camp to decide more roster spots than maybe any other camp in the league.  There’s a starting spot or two up for grabs as well, but Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland are depth-first guys who will try to develop their future superstars through the draft.  Jake Long is only the most obvious example.

Wide Receiver: Brian Hartline vs. Brandon London

Hartline was a late round pick by the Fins, while London scratched and clawed to make the team last season.  The UMass product played on special teams and caught three balls last season.  The Fins don’t NEED another rookie (they drafted Patrick Turner out of USC in the third round), so this is a legitimate camp battle.

Tight End: John Nalbone vs. Joey Haynos vs. Ernest Wilford

John Nalbone out of Monmouth has been ultra impressive in camp, probably the star thus far, and is a heavy favorite to make the roster.  But that doesn’t mean that Haynos and Wilford are just waiting to be cut out there.  Wilford is a misfit at Tight End, and probably is running out of time to justify the contract the Dolphins gave him last year to solve their WR problems (which have since been solved), but Haynos is a guy that worked his way onto the field last year and did some good things in limited time.  Also had a critical fumble which could have cost the Dolphins the division.  Anyway, he’s the type of player that the Dolphins like to reward with a roster spot.  Plus, if Nalbone is that good, why stop at third string?  I smell a surprise cut.

Guard: Andy Alleman vs. Shawn Murphy

Murphy is listed as the No. 1 guy at RG right now, but starter Donald Thomas has been nursing an injury.  Alleman was picked up on waivers from New Orleans last year, and he’s a guy the coaching staff likes.  It’s possible that they could both make the team in backup roles, though last year’s injury-forced starter, Ike Ndukwe is working in at RT, and can play some guard still obviously.

Defensive End: Tony McDaniel vs. Lionel Dotson

The Dolphins threw a 7th rounder at the Jaguars in a trade this March for McDaniel, who they feel is a good scheme fit.  He should force Dotson off the roster, but this remains an undecided camp battle at the moment.

Outside Linebacker: Quentin Moses vs. Charlie Anderson vs. Eric Walden

Remember Moses as a third round “steal” by the Raiders in 2007?  The Raiders would cut him before the season in the first official spat between Lane Kiffin and Al Davis.  Charlie Anderson and Eric Walden are relative unknowns, but this is Moses’ third year as a professional and he’s done nothing of note, so his roster spot is not guarenteed.

Inside Linebacker: William Kershaw vs. J.D. Folsom

Two youthful special teamers with some developmental upside, there’s an interesting dynamic here since the contract of Akin Ayodele lends itself to becoming a backup before it expires.  So if someone impresses, they could end up starting for the Dolphins by December.

Cornerback: Nathan Jones vs. Jason Allen

Jason Allen was the controversial Nick Saban first round draft pick that Saban did not have to stick around to develop.  Consequently, he didn’t become the safety the ‘Fins wanted, so now he’s trying to make this team as a reserve cornerback.  The fins need corners, but Nathan Jones wasn’t bad last year, and so Allen is a likely cut.

Safety: Courtney Bryan vs. Chris Clemons

Special teams (gunner?) battle here.  Not much developmental upside from either player.

Kicker: Dan Carpenter vs. Connor Barth

Connor Barth was cut by the Chiefs, and he signed here less than a day later.  He’ll compete with Carpenter, who should hold his job.  Kicking in south Florida is one of the greatest jobs in the NFL.

Surprise Cuts?

• RB Ricky Williams
• TE David Martin
• OL Ike Ndukwe
• LB Akin Ayodele
• CB Eric Green