LiveBall Sports

The easiest, simplest way to separate teams in the NFL is to look at the quarterbacks.  Or so the logic behind reactionary analysis goes.

So here’s my proposal.  I’m going to rank the 32 NFL teams considering nothing but the quality of the starting quarterback.  No intangibles here.  Just cold hard stats and reasonable assumptions for the 2009 season based off past statistics.

If the wisdom holds, these rankings should hold throughout the test of a 17-week season.  At the end of the season, some of my quarterback predictions should look wrong, but hey, we know a lot about the quarterbacks, and if nothing else truly matters for teams that make up the “have nots” at the QB position, then there’s no reason to think these won’t hold.

The First Tier

1. New Orleans Saints: Preseason favorite look to lay siege to the league behind the rocket arm and pinpoint accuracy of Drew Brees.

2. Indianapolis Colts: All-time NFL Great Peyton Manning looks to win his 2nd NFL title and double his all-time greatness.

3. San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers is out to show former draft-mates Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger where they can stick their 100 million dollar contracts.

4. New England Patriots: Tom Brady’s goal is to make Patriot fans forget all about the Matt Cassel era.

5. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo looks to lead the Cowboys back to the second round of the playoffs, but this time, they look to do it the hard way.

6. Miami Dolphins: Chad Pennington will try to build on a 16 start season with a 16 start season.

7. Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck will try to build on a 9 start season with a 16 start season.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Kurt Warner could become the first 38 year old to lead the NFC in passing.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Carson Palmer will try to build on a 4 start season with at 16 start season.

10. Atlanta Falcons: the NFL’s all time career leader in comeback victories with 6 or fewer seconds, Ryan will look to win in game in only 4 seconds this season.

The Second Tier

These teams are all above average based on their prolific passing potential.

11. New York Giants: Eli Manning looks to help a bunch of unimportant people on his team get paid as a pass it on favor from David Tyree.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard looks to rebound back to his career-best darkhorse MVP candidate that no one knows or cares about.

13. Houston Texans: If Matt Schaub can avoid getting hit after the play, he can carry the Texans on his back to the playoffs.  Well, assuming his knee can hold up under the weight of the expectations.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger hopes to hold the ball long enough to frustrate Tom Brady into subsidizing him a third ring.

15. Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler brings the awesomeness that the Bears offense has lacked since it had Jim McMahons shades, or Sid Luckman’s…luck?

16. Washington Redskins: Jason Campbell’s baby steps forward give him a nice foothold in the elite class of the NFL’s top half quarterbacks.

17. Philadelphia Eagles: Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb realizes that life was better on the other side of this mythical line drawn in the sand after the 16th best NFL Kewbie.

18. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers’ fourth quarter performance last season was lacking, and this year, his offensive line is lacking.  The difference, of course, is it’s a lot less painful when you suck over a cherry-picked period of time then when the players who are paid to prevent you from getting hit aren’t any good.

19. Carolina Panthers: Jake Delhomme might show enough ingenuity to switch roles with Steve Smith this year, given the proliferation of the wildcat and of Delhomme’s inability to throw the ball to players on his own team.

Third tier

These are your average teams who could get lucky and be good.

20. Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton drags his mediocrity to a higher altitude where a thin-air kicking game can convert his standard two first downs and bust into actual real points in an NFL game.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If Byron Leftwich can hold off Josh Freeman and Luke McCown to start in the NFL this year, he should return to the class of passers who are valuable but always under threat of losing their jobs.  By this point, he should be nice and comfy.

22. Tennessee Titans: Can Kerry Collins hold up for 16 games?  The Titans’ ranking at No. 22 says–maybe.

23. Detroit Lions: If Daunte Culpepper has anything to say about it, the Lions will prove to be not the worst NFL team in the NFC North.

24. St. Louis Rams: Mark Bulger is Ben Roethlisberger light.  Throws an accurate ball when he gets the three hours in the pocket needed to release it, runs pretty well for good yardage, can rack up the TD’s if he gets help from his offense.  But what makes them different is their weight.  Mark Bulger is just the lighter of the two players.

25. Kansas City Chiefs: Will Bernard Pollard be a distraction to Matt Cassel’s ability to focus on NFL success in the great midwest?  He’s a quarterback killer.

Fourth Tier

These teams are not average.

26. Buffalo Bills: Trent Edwards will have fun passing to Terrell Owens from his back this season.  T.O. would do the same thing if he was in charge.

27. Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn needs to get some starts to get his feet wet in the NFL, but Cleveland management has been able to hold him off the field thus far.  Stay strong, guys.

28. Baltimore Ravens: How will Joe Flacco cope with three and four receiver route packages this season?

29. San Francisco 49ers: Shaun Hill is good enough to stay in this league until Mike Singletary gets his playoff ambition on.

30. Minnesota Vikings: Tavaris Jackson survived Brett Favre, and now looks to handle the Detroit Lions twice this year as modern contemporary Gus Frerotte was able to last year.  Barely.

31. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell is throwing darts this year in Raiders camp, which is helping S Michael Huff make the team.

32. New York Jets: The Jets will roll with rookie Mark Sanchez for most of this year, but as luck would have it, their schedule just reads ‘Oregon State’ 16 times.

Obviously, one of the points of this list was to point out the ridiculousness of modern QB and team analysis.  This list wasn’t created to accurately forecast anything, but it will be worthwhile to bring it back up at the end of the season not only to see how I did in ranking the ‘Kewbies’, but also how my half-assed effort compares to people who are much better compensated to provide half-assed opinions.

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Saints, Jaguars, Packers, Raiders, Vikings

Two years ago, the Cleveland Browns won 10 games, barely missed the playoffs, and appeared to have converted a great amount of preseason hope into relative reality.  When the Browns landed OT Joe Thomas, QB Brady Quinn, and CB Eric Wright all in the same draft, it wasn’t hard to fathom future success from this group.

Alas, that success would have to wait.  It was easy to take a glance at the Browns and see all the leaks in the fishing boat.  I personally forecast them for 5 wins last season, but adding insult to injury (or more specifically, injury to insult), the Browns started off disappointing and then limped to the finish with a grand total of 4 wins.  The cold truth set in: the Browns were not any closer to the playoffs than they were before the 2007 draft.

But that’s not exactly reality either.  If the building block of the current Cleveland Browns is the 2007 draft, there’s no reason to be discouraged about the future.  Thomas is already a quality starter with a pro bowl appearence to his name.  Quinn hasn’t played much, but his projection is no worse than when he came into the league.  He still profiles as a mid-level franchise quarterback.  And Wright is in the process of developing into a No. 1 CB in the NFL.  He’s not there yet, but he’s getting close.

The new head coaching hire was a bit controversial.  It’s Eric Mangini, fresh off his whacking by the Jets.  Mangini has shown the ability to quickly fix leaky defensive units and offensive lines, and this year should be no exception with the talented but unproductive Browns defense and the addition of rookie C Alex Mack to the offensive line.  The improved play of those two units will give the Browns a shot at winning 8 games in a tough division.  But to get all the way there, they need to get the passing game on track.  In that respect, Mangini’s results with the Jets are not at all promising.

In 2006, when the Jets won 10 games, they did so behind a resurgent season from Chad Pennington — seriously, this guy would be a hall of fame candidate if he was more durable — who fit offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s system better than any other coordinator-quarterback combo in the league that year.  But when the Jets’ OL struggled in 2007, Mangini decided that Pennington was part of the problem, not the solution, and they dropped him to the bench.  Needless to say, the Jets would never again enjoy a good passing game under Mangini, save for a nice Favarian performance every now and again.

Given his track record, Mangini is a perfect example of a man who should not be deciding the winner of the Browns quarterback competition.  In fact, it’s really only because of Mangini that they are having a competition.  Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are locked in a QB battle for the second straight season (although last year, it was more a formal coronation of Anderson), a battle that began just a month after Browns fans took solace in the fact that at least they wouldn’t have to see Anderson play anymore.  To make matters worse, I’m not even sure the Browns have the right two quarterbacks in competition for the starting job.

The Browns had another hell of a draft in 2009, and the centerpiece of the entire weekend was the other half of the Mark Sanchez trade where the Jets gave up a lot of high upside Mangini lifers for the right to move up and draft Sanchez.  Among these acquisitions was QB Brett Ratliff out of Utah, who absolutely lit up the preseason last year.  If there’s any actual competition for Quinn, why battle him against the player who profiles as a career backup (Anderson)?  Why not put him up against a late round prospect like Brett Ratliff and let him earn the QB of the future title?

If Derek Anderson were to win the QB battle, you would just be delaying the inevitable which is that either Ratliff or Quinn eventually takes over for him after another failure on a bad team.  Consequently, rampant speculation/reporting suggests that the Anderson/Quinn QB battle is simply a Mangini coaching tactic aimed at establishing his dominance of the team, and that Quinn is a solid lock to win the battle.  That’s probably true, but it almost paints Mangini out to be a man who is more concerned with establishing himself as an irreplaceable part of the Browns than as the coach of a winning football team.

The Browns have bigger issues on the offense than at the quarterback position, where at least the Browns expect that their long-term solution is in-house.  At the running back position, it’s Jamal Lewis’ job.  That’s fine, as Lewis has been a valuable runner for the better part of his 9 year NFL career, but Lewis turns 30 at the end of this month, and contrary to most situations, that’s not just a hollow tale of caution in Lewis’ case.  Lewis’ last four seasons have produced just one above average year, and not so coincidentally, it’s when the Browns won 10 games in 2007.

Lewis’ 2007 season was the one part of the 10 win season that seemed statistically sustainable, but his 2008 season was a regression to the mean, and perhaps this means that the end is not far?  The Browns don’t have another proven runner, and if Lewis should get hurt, the team may choose to work with a committee approach lead by Jerome Harrison.

The receivers are in a state of flux.  Braylon Edwards grabs the headlines, but after a season in which he lapped the league in drops, the fifth year receiver now profiles as a poor-team’s No. 1, or a very good No. 2, and thats a projection  assuming an improved accuracy effect from the insertion of Quinn into the lineup.  He’ll need some help, but the Browns decided to trade TE Kellen Winslow in the offseason, and went to the draft for receiving him.  They came away with Brian Robiske and Mohammad Massaquoi in the second round.  Combined with special teams ace Josh Cribbs, the Browns have all the pieces for Quinn (or Ratliff) to win in future seasons, but this year it looks like TE Steve Heiden is going to be among the team leader in targets, so it’s impossible to look at this offense as an above average unit even with an impressive collection of talent on the OL.

Mangini takes over a team that has young talent but lacks an identity as either an offensive or a defensive team.  If he makes enough right decisions, they’ll be a playoff contender sooner rather than later.  This year, the Browns are somewhere between a 6-10 and a 8-8 team, and that range is simply the first step that Mangini must take to restore his “Mangenius” image.

Browns Camp, Berea, OH

The Quarterback battle was addressed extensively in the above, so let’s take a look at some of the other positional battles for the Browns this year.

Tackle: Ryan Tucker vs. George Foster

George Foster, now 6 years removed from being a first round selection by the Denver Broncos (Mike Shanahan’s first!) is STILL in the developmental tackle stage, which is both why he’s still in the league and has a chance against Tucker.  There’s also the fact that Floyd Womack, who came over in the offseason from Seattle, is flexible enough to handle OT if they need him to, so Tucker’s depth is not a necessity.  Still, Tucker’s the favorite unless Foster offers something of value.

Guard: Issac Sowells vs. Fred Weary

Fred Weary was signed after starting RG Rex Hadnot suffered a potentially serious injury, but an MRI revealed it was just a sprain, which means that Weary’s stay will likely be short.  He’s up against Issac Sowells to earn the role of “utility lineman who is only active for four games.”

Defensive End No. 2: Robaire Smith vs. C.J. Mosely vs. Corey Williams

Just one year ago, Phil Savage tossed a second round pick at Corey Williams, and asked Romeo Crennel to make him a starting DE in the 3-4.  Sadly, that was not the worst thing Savage did last year, which is damning to all involved.  Robaire Smith is the favorite to start over 26 year old ex-Jet C.J. Mosely and Williams, who may be relegated to third string or worse.

Inside Linebacker: Beau Bell vs. Eric Barton vs. Bo Ruud

Eric Barton’s name is not pronounced as “BOW” so he’s unlikely to win this competition.  That, and he’s flexible enough to be the outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.  The favorite is Beau Bell, the highest draft pick the Browns had in the 2008 draft (4th round).  He is challenged by Ruud, the brother of Barett Ruud of the Bucs, also a Cornhusker.

Cornerback: Hank Poteat vs. Brandon McDonald

McDonald, who was a starter on the Browns last year, needs to re-invent himself in order to stay in the league.  He’s now the 4th corner on the depth chart, and even his hold on that spot is tenuous.  If he can become a valuable special teamer, he’s young enough to stay in the league for awhile, but he’s a year removed from playing teams and Hank Poteat came over from the Jets specifically to provide depth and play teams.  He’ll be a thorn in McDonald’s side for the next month of camp.

Surprise Cuts?

• TE Robert Royal
• C Hank Fraley
• DE Corey Williams
• LB David Bowens
• LB Leon Williams

Here’s your now weekly public service post.  This list will be helpful for helping to come out ahead in your fantasy football draft.

Below, I’ve listed players who are being reasonably misvalued by the average draft position, compiled through thousands of mock drafts at FantasyFootballCalculator.com.  These are not my rankings of the players, but rather an explanation of why the average fantasy football player, who is generally very rational and predictable, will misvalue certain players.  I will not include kickers or defenses in this analysis, because though they are certainly misvalued, it’s not the kind of thing you’ll be spending one of your first seven picks on anyway.

Players who are being overdrafted

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons:  Turner is being taken on average with the third overall pick, and has not slipped further than seventh in any draft, but it’s probably unreasonable to expect first round type production from him.  The first assumption being made is that the Falcons, who were 4-12 just a year ago, will be able to pound out a bunch of wins on the ground.  That’s likely not accurate.  Secondly, the team is going to have to get Jerious Norwood more involved and that means less total carries for Turner.  People are convinced that Turner will get the goal line carries, and he probably will, but not in the quantity you’d expect from an elite fantasy player.  Let someone else make this pick.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals:  We all noticed the impact Fitzgerald made in the playoffs last year, but we now have five seasons of Fitzgerald in Arizona to know what kind of fantasy player he will be.  Seriously, he’s not a bad choice to be the first receiver off the board, but he’s been taken with the first overall pick in at least one draft.  There’s no reason to rush to add him before anyone else comes off the board: you’ll be just as happy with Randy Moss or Andre Johnson.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers:  Again, there is nothing wrong here with this player, at least not like in Turner’s case, but there’s no reason to make the selection in the first round if you are considering other options.  On average, Williams is off the board in most drafts before proven players like Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and even Brian Westbrook.  Throw Ronnie Brown into that group and you have 5 guys that have interchangeable value in seasonal leagues, so don’t feel like you have to rush in and draft Williams.  His upside is real, but no moreso than those other players, unless it’s a keeper league.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions:  He may be a freak, but he’s also a Lions receiver, and you probably shouldn’t touch him before the third round in most situations (again, assuming a non-keeper league).  Johnson might be good for a bunch of TD’s this year, but the 2nd round is going to be loaded with 10 TD type receivers.  Johnson’s a high upside player, but that upside might be 13 TDs, in which case, don’t pay a premium for the additional risk.  If there’s a run on receivers in the second round in your league, go for it.  Otherwise, let someone else overdraft him.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals:  The other Cards receiver is being overdrafted as well.  He’s a No. 2 receiver, and if you are going to take him ahead of any No. 1 WR, make sure that the No. 1 guy plays in an extreme rushing offense, such as Torry Holt, or Donnie Avery.  On average, he’s going ahead of Dwyane Bowe right now, and Bowe is a legitimate No. 1 fantasy receiver.  Boldin, on the other hand, probably should not be the first WR you draft, if you take him at all.  He’s a late 4th or 5th round pick, not a 3rd.

Terrell Owens, WR, Bills:  This one is obvious.  Like many experts, I think his TD catch value makes him a better fantasy option than teammate Lee Evans, but don’t try to make the Bills offense out to be a powerhouse that it is not.  This isn’t the 49ers, Philly, or Dallas, and Owens’ numbers are going to reflect that.  Owens isn’t a solid pick until round 6, at which point, he’s your No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy WR.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers:  He’s not even guaranteed to be the starter coming out of camp, so he might not be worth a pick at all.  Right now, he’s being chosen as a back end No. 2 running back, but this year, Ryan Grant is strictly mid-to-late round RB depth.  Don’t touch him before the 6th or 7th round, and after you already have picked your starters at the RB position.

Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys:  I implore you not to make Witten the first overall tight end taken.  This isn’t last year.  Conventional wisdom says he’s got to be the first tight end off the board, but there’s 5 or 6 TEs that all could end up with the highest number of fantasy points at the end of the year.  Also, he’s not fooling defenses in the NFL anymore, and consequently, his TD totals might not reflect the talented player he still is.

Players who are being underdrafted

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs:  Bowe is a legitimate No. 1 fantasy receiver in the wide open Chiefs offense, and if you think that Scott Pioli is for real, he might be the No. 1 most desirable receiver in a keeper league.  He’s a mid third round pick in most leagues, but you could justify taking Bowe in the early second, or as soon as wide receivers start coming off the board.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts:  A very wide variance on where Manning is being targeted in drafts.  He’s not my no. 1 QB, not even my no. 2 QB, but you’d still lock him up before the end of the second round if he’s available.  He’s slipping to the 4th round in some drafts.  Hello!  You play to win the game, and Peyton Manning does that with your fantasy team.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins:  Ronnie Brown is probably the most talented RB in the league today, and he’s now two years removed from surgery on his ACL, which means he could be in for a huge season.  Right now, Ronnie Brown is a third round pick in most fantasy leagues, but I think he’s more of a back end first rounder or at the very least, a mid-second.  If he’s there when you pick in the third round, he’s easy pickings.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers:  He’s no. 4 on my rankings list, and I’m sure he’s the same on most other lists.  But here’s the big difference with Rivers: he’s an elite fantasy quarterback just like Manning, just like Brady, and just like Brees.  In any given year in the next three, Rivers could be the No. 1 QB in fantasy football.  If you are in a keeper league, he shouldn’t get out of the top 18-20 picks.  In a seasonal league, where he belongs depends on how your league is valuing the QB position.  If any QB goes in the first round, Rivers becomes a second round value.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos:  Don’t worry about the competition at the RB position in Denver.  Moreno was not drafted in the top 12 by a team with a terrible defense so he could redshirt this season.  Behind the Denver line, 1000 yards seems like a bare minimum for him this season.  He’s a late second or early third round value, and you can probably lock him up in the fourth round the way fantasy drafts are breaking.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers:  AFC West offense is dominating this list, and well, have you seen the defenses in that division?  Vincent Jackson is a third round value in all formats, who is being picked like a fourth rounder currently.

LenDale White, RB, Titans:  White has lost a ton of weight in the offseason and he scored 10 times last season, which makes him a devastating fantasy back.  Thing is, a lot of owners will struggle to justify drafting a backup as early as this, but you can steal White in the 4th or 5th round and get a legitimate No. 2 fantasy back who happens to be a No. 2 on his own team.

Donnie Avery, WR, Rams:  Avery is going to miss the next 4-6 weeks due to an injury, which should tank his average draft position.  He was already a steal in most leagues, keepers especially, not coming off the board until the seventh round.  Even with him likely to miss a game or two, if you are sitting in the eight or ninth round and have the chance to add a number one target in an offense which has no complementary option, enjoy the fantasy championship this move can net you.