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Previous Roster Roundouts: Buffalo Bills

If asked to sum up the job of an NFL personnel director in simply one sentence, I’d have to say that the job is all about collecting the best quality of talent from the strongest bases of talent available (i.e. the draft) while using all of the information available to avoid perilous decisions.

The St. Louis Rams probably should have asked for another sentence or two.

What can you say to a team that, under it’s prior leadership, won 5 games in it’s last two seasons?  Move to Kansas City and you’ll be the best show in town?  No, that’s no good.  The Rams have acquired talent.  They haven’t traded their early draft picks, they haven’t cut or tried to replace their proven franchise quarterback, even though we’re now two years removed from his last good season.  They’ve converted their picks into the best available talent each year, and well, it just hasn’t mattered.  They aren’t a game better than they were the day this rebuilding started.

The 2007 and 2008 Rams were talented football teams, but they were completely and utterly mismanaged.  Scott Linehan proved to be an inept coach: it wasn’t his fault that the team got off to a crappy start in 2007 following a 8-8 rookie season, but given a calendar year to pull the Rams out of the abyss, Linehan just appeared to make things worse.  The team eventually gave up on him, and he was ousted in September of last year.  The team then made Jim Haslett head coach, got three straight good performances from it’s defense leading to 2 wins in the NFC East and an near-upset of the Patriots, then got blown out of the water by the Cardinals and quit on Haslett.

flickr.com/Monica's Dad

Haslett is now a head man in the upstart UFL, where he can have a two win team that isn’t quite as bad.  After owner Georgia Frontiere passed away, the Rams cleaned house, got rid of their management, brought in Billy Devaney to be the new G.M., and he hired Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo as head man.  On the surface, the power structure appears to be proper.

Marc Bulger has now survived two head coach firings at quarterback, and even he knows that if things don’t get better shortly, not even the most patient of franchises can string him out any longer.  Bulger is a deadly accurate passer with a quick release, but he has always held on to the ball a long time.  That’s the Martz offense for you.  Lots of downfield action, and he expects his quarterbacks to know their protections, wait for plays to develop, and get the ball downfield.

You can’t change Marc Bulger, he’s a mid-tier quarterback who can really light up the scoreboard when given a fighting chance, but Bulger has absolutely not adjusted to life on a bad offense.  Torry Holt’s gradual decline began in 2005, and by 2008, he wasn’t really shaking No. 2 CBs with any frequency anymore.  Rookie WR Donnie Avery was a big boost last year, probably the team’s best wide receiver, but looked like a rookie more often than not.  Tertiary receivers were completely non-existant.

What’s remarkable about the Rams is that, since the 1999 season, the team has only had two leading passers, two leading rushers, and two leading receivers, and in each case, once the successor took over, he has led in his statistical category each season since breaking out.  Bulger (’02), Steven Jackson (’05), and Holt (’00) have been a dynamic trio for a very long time now, and with Holt moving on, the Rams would like to slot Avery in as the leading receiver and have Bulger, Jackson, and Avery be a set of triplets through 2011.  Jackson has been remarkably consistent–he’s had injuries that have prevented him from duplicating his excellent 2006 season, but his YPC is consistently over 4.0 every season, and he’s now produced 4 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons.  Jackson, not Bulger, is the best player on the offense.

It’s simply not fathomable that a unit led by a quarterback as historically productive as Bulger and a running back as consistently productive as Jackson could be held irrelivant three years in a row, and thanks to some upgrades on the offensive line and a scheme change, it should be improved.  Baylor OT Jason Smith went second in the draft to the Rams, and his services will be required instantly, though the team likes him on the right side as opposed to the more traditional blind side.  The line should be much better without the oft injured former pro bowler Orlando Pace, who takes his act to Chicago.

Outside of cutting Pace, the team made two controversial moves this offseason, and if they both pay off, a playoff bound Rams team in the NFC West might not be such a ridiculous thing.  First, the Jason Brown signing must work out.  Brown was a young, functional Center with upside when with the Baltimore Ravens, and now he’s walking headstrong into a disfuntional offensive line with talented blockers on either side of him.  Simply put, he needs to help the protection get better, or he was a serious waste of money.  Second, the Rams released their leading tackler, Pisa Tinoisamoa, who also signed with Chicago.  Presumably, this happened because the new regime liked what they saw of young SLB Quentin Culberson from last year, and think he can be a superstar in this defense.  If that wasn’t the reason for dumping Tinoisamoa, well, then color me confused on this one.  Both moves are high upside moves that absoultely have to work for a quick turnaround.

For the Rams, it’s a critical season.  It would be nice if Steve Spagnuolo’s defense joined the Rams offense at the party, but they simply aren’t very deep there, and the Rams offense might have to carry the day yet again.

Rams Camp, Russell Training Center, Earth City, MO

Unless the Rams do a significant amount of waiver wire shopping, there are not very many camp battles to be had.  Here are the most significant:

Running back: Antonio Pittman vs. Chris Ogbonnaya vs. Samkon Gado

The Rams may choose to keep up to four running backs, although they’ll probably settle for just three.  Pittman was a fourth round pick of the Saints who didn’t make it out of camp with them.  Ogbonnaya, is the most intriguing of the bunch, as he was undrafted out of Texas and could make an impact as a first year player.  Gado seems to be the longshot, as his days as a fantasy league savior in 2005 are far enough in the rear-view mirror where he just might be on his last shot in the NFL.  If so, it was a pretty awesome run.

Wide Receiver: Tim Carter vs. Derek Stanley

Both of these guys have special teams experience returning kicks, and as an active fifth or sixth receiver, that’s where their mark will be made.  Stanley is a young player with more upside, and probably the favorite, while Carter is a journeyman who can offer veteran receiving skills in addition to his raw speed, but not much else.

Defensive Tackle: Ian Campbell vs. Common Sense

Seems like Campbell already won this battle in OTA’s.  The K-State product was battling trade receipt Orion Harris for a defensive tackle spot, and last week, Harris got traded agan: this time to Detroit for Ronald Curry.  That makes the undrafted Campbell a strong favorite to make the team at defensive tackle.

Safety: Eric Bassey vs. Todd Johnson

Eric Bassey was a practice squad player who got on the field at the end of last year and held his own, while Todd Johnson has bounced around the league since his Bears days.  Johnson is the favorite, and since Spagnuolo plays a strong safety up near the line, Johnson has a place for him cut out in this defense.  Of course, for a journeyman, no job comes with much security.

Surprise Cuts?

• TE Joe Klopfenstein
• DE Victor Adeyanju
• G Roy Scheuning
• LB Chris Draft
• CB Tye Hill

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Let’s start with the positives: the Buffalo Bills won all four of their September games last year, and began the 2008 NFL season 5-1.

Okay, well, that didn’t take long.

Following a finish in which the team lost 8 of it’s final 10 games, the Buffalo Bills approached the offseason and decided to both rebuild and reload.  After the well-publicized and now equally well traveled Terrell Owens got his walking papers from the Dallas Cowboys, agent Drew Rosenhaus claimed to have calls from four teams interested in Owens.  Not one media source could find a single team who would give Rosenhaus the time of day regarding Owens, but that became easily explained when Buffalo sigend Owens to a one-year, 6 million dollar contract only three days after his release.

Perhaps the NFL’s most public figure instantly becomes the face of it’s least public team.  The Cincinnati Bengals have attempted to prove that no publicity is bad publicity, and the Bills feel like they can benefit from Owens more than he can potentially hurt the team.

Owens’ stature may provide the Bills instant credibility, but if the Bills are going to be competitive this year, they’ll have to improve their passing game, which ranked 22nd in the NFL in yards per game, and 27th in the NFL in DVOA.

The problem, however, was not as much about the receivers, it was about the turnovers.  The Bills fumbled more frequently than any other team in the NFL.  In games where the Bills won the turnover differential, they were 5-0.  In games where they lost it, they were 1-8.  Turnover differential is a statistic that correlates strongly with wins and losses, but it’s also a very weak predictor of itself on a season to season level.  Just because the Bills finished -8 in turnover differential in 2008 doesn’t mean they’ll finish below zero again this year.

However, if you are trying to prevent turnovers, I would suggest not replacing four players on your OL, and then moving your marginal RT to LT, which is exactly what the Bills did this offseason.  Gone are Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery, Melvin Fowler, and Duke Preston, and Langston Walker will be the LT on this team.  Incoming is veteran C Geoff Hangartner, and rookie Gs Eric Wood and Andy Levitre.  There’s a massive talent upgrade on the interior, but the results could be a rough going in the short term.  The Bills offensive line ranked 25th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and given the comings and goings on the OL that would seem like a reasonable expectation for the 2009 unit.

When the Trent Edwards broke down in the midst of a intra-division three game stretch last season, it was about a clear an indicator as there was that the 4-0 start was a mirage.  They had done it with a below average defense and zero pass rush.  Edwards had only threw two picks in the team’s 5-1 start.  Over the next four games, as the Bills tail spun towards 5-5, Edwards would be picked off 8 times before missing the next two games with injuries.  The problem was a mixture of things out of Edwards’ control going wrong (such as Robert Royal fumbling after a 20-yd completion on 3rd and 19), and piss poor play by the protection unit, Edwards included, but by the time we reached Thanksgiving, Edwards was playing shell shocked, and the Bills were, even just two games out, no longer a playoff contender.  Then they turned to JP Losman, and um…well, they weren’t any less of a playoff contender.

The defensive unit watched it’s top corner, Jabari Greer, sign with New Orleans in the offseason.  Now, the Bills are 10o% reliant on the quick development of Leodis McKelvin into a No. 1 corner.  Donte Whitner spent a lot of time playing out of position last year, which should be rectified this season when he’s closer to the line of scrimmage.  They also drafted a pass rusher in Aaron Maybin, who might be the perfect fit in their defense, a 4-3 scheme where he will be asked to rush the passer and the linebackers will have his back against the run.  That, and, the Bills had no pass rush whatsoever from their defensive line last year.  As I write, the team is preparing for a holdout with Maybin, so that could put a damper on his impact as a rookie.

Bills Camp, St. John Fisher College

Since this is a training camp article, let’s focus on what  the Bills can accomplish in training camp to best improve their chances at improving their team.

For a small market team, the Bills are impressively void of any undrafted rookie talent of the recognizable name variety.  USC CB Cary Harris is probably the biggest name, which is saying something, since the Bills appear loaded at corner.  But the Bills aren’t working on a complete roster just yet.  Here’s some positions where a roster spot can be won by an impressive performance in training camp:

Tight End: Derek Schomann vs. Derek Fine vs. (rookie) Shawn Nelson

The Bills have been forgettable at this position forever, and they were downright laughable last year when they let Robert Royal play 16 games.  Shawn Nelson is raw, but incredibly athletic, and the sooner he can make the starting lineup, the better off the Bills will be.  Schomann vs. Fine for de-facto opening day starter is almost not worth following, because they both play the same game.  If you have to place money, it’s probably (a) Fine.

Xavier Omon

How far up the depth chart can he fly?  Omon is nearly certain to make the roster at running back thanks to a suspension of starter Marshawn Lynch, but if he plays well, he may force the Bills to keep him playing.  He’s got a legitimate shot to pass Dominic Rhodes for the Week 1 2nd RB job, in which case, Rhodes’ stay here might be a short one.

Wide Receiver:  Josh Reed vs. Roscoe Parrish vs. P.K. Sam

The addition of P.K. Sam is an interesting one, because he’s a special teamer/kick returner type who made his name with the Ravens, and now could win a job on special teams or even returning kicks for the Bills.  The Bills were trying their damnedest to ship off Roscoe Parrish in a trade package in the offseason, and the team has been trying to replace Josh Reed for at least two years now.  They like WR Steve Johnson, who has the fast track to the fourth receiver job, leaving Reed, Parrish, and Sam to fight it out for only one or two spots.

Offensive Tackle: Jonathon Scott vs. Demetrius Bell

The Bills are unlikely to roster more than three tackles, especially since starting G Kirk Chambers is versatile enough to move outside if needed.  So these two will battle to be the first guy off the bench in a blocking crisis.

Linebacker: Marcus Buggs vs. Ashlee Palmer vs. Jon Corton

There’s not necessarily a spot here for these guys, but if one of them establishes himself as a special teams demon, then the Bills will find a place for him.

Safety: Dustin Fox vs. George Wilson vs. John Wendling

The battle to win a special teams spot, all these contenders have seen playing time in the secondary at different times, and would be about the 4th defensive option, if one can separate from the others in training camp.

There’s also a battle at third quarterback, but between Matt Baker and veteran Gibran Hamdan, I doubt it matters.

Surprise Cuts?

In no particular order, here’s some more well-known names that really need to have a promising camp to earn their spot:

• WR Josh Reed
• WR Roscoe Parrish
• DT John McCargo
• G Seth McKinney
• CB Ashton Youboty