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I have long despised the variable of defensive positioning in determining a hitter’s value.  Now, I’m well aware that the average first baseman will outhit the average middle infielder in any given year.   I also realize that you can’t put 5 overweight average hitting first basemen in your everyday lineup every day and expect to win games.  That’s elementary stuff, which, I think misses the point.

My problem with positional baselines have to do with their disregard to the quality of individual defensive play.  Conventional positional baselines adjust the offensive statistics of a defensive whiz such as Cesar Izturis, and a glove-butcher like Michael Young (when he played SS) at the same level.  There’s a large defensive difference between Elvus Andrus and Yuniesky Betancourt, but they are both given the offensive baseline of “shortstop”.

My logic is as follows:  players who post severely below average defensive numbers are likely playing out of position, whether or not their team realizes it.  Adjusting offensive numbers for the fact that their defensive value comes at a premium is pointless if you could be getting the defensive production from anyone on your roster, including the pitchers.

You could do this with any statistic that uses positional baselines, but I’m going to use VORP because it’s easy to understand (offensive runs above replacement level) and it doesn’t factor in any defensive value outside of the position played.  Take the curious case of the Kansas City Royals.  If we ranked their best hitters as rated by VORP, among their positional lines, they look something like this:

• 2nd Baseman Alberto Callaspo – ranked 10th (17.9)
• 3rd Baseman Mark Teahen – ranked 13th (19.5)
• Shortstop Willie Bloomquist – ranked 17th (7.5)
• Catcher Miguel Olivo – ranked 19th (5.9)
• 1st Baseman Billy Butler – ranked 20th (9.2)
• Centerfielder Coco Crisp – (still) ranked 30th (4.3) [out for season]

With the exception of Butler at first base (which I’ll get to in a second), those are all positive contributions from players at premium defensive positions.  The Royals rank 30th in the MLB in VORP because of a lot of sub-replacement performances at SS, but mostly because they are getting penalized for not having productive corner outfielders and DH’s in the system.

By far, those are the positions at which VORP shows the highest amount of variance, and the Royals don’t have a hitter among the top 30 at either outfield spot, nor do they have a DH ranked in the top 16.

VORP’s solution to make the Royals a league average offense–given the list above–is to acquire/develop two or three league-average hitters at non-premium defensive positions.  1) This is an expensive/long-term solution, 2) the Royals are going to look worse than this in VORP at the end of the season, despite likely offensive improvement, and 3) this completely ignores why the Kansas City Royals are a bad baseball team.

The Royals have an organizational logjam at first base.  Billy Butler is the best defender of the bunch, which is damning to all involved.  Mike Jacobs can barely be considered a defensive player at all, he’s arguably out of position at first base, and can’t remotely be considered for any other position.  Kila Kia’ahue is tearing up triple-A for the second consecutive year, but he’s another guy who profiles best as a DH.  Down the road, 19 year old prospect Eric Hosmer figures to be this teams first baseman/power threat, and he might be athletic enough to play a corner outfield spot, but for right now, is strictly a first baseman.

It’s simply not true that any of those players could actually gain value by moving to the corner outfield, however, this is exactly what defensive baselines suggest.  It seems like a simple solution: just slide Alberto Callaspo over to SS, DFA Jose Guillen, move Billy Butler to Right Field, call up Kila to play first base, wham, you have a good baseball team, or at least one that produces more runs above replacement than it currently does.  Uh, not exactly.

The easiest and cheapest way for the Royals to improve is to work on the defense: move players to LESS demanding defensive positions.  You could get better contribution from Alberto Callaspo at third base*, from Willie Bloomquist at second base, from John Buck or Brayan Pena in the outfield or at DH, and from Mark Teahen in the outfield.

*-Of course, there’s a logjam at third base as well.  It’s just a poorly constructed organization.

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This is more or less what the (admittedly flawed) Yuniesky Betancourt trade was about.  It allows the Royals to get more value out of their existing players.  The acquisition of Coco Crisp allowed the Royals to get more value out of David DeJesus.  The emergence of Callaspo allowed the Royals to get more value out of Mark Teahen and Willie Bloomquist.  The development of Miguel Olivo and Billy Butler’s defense and power helps out the value of Brayan Pena and Mike Jacobs.

Defensive baselines simply obscure this effect because they see the team moving offensive players with value to positions where their offensive value gets mitigated.  But in reality, the offensive value of the player has not changed.  He’s simply a more valuable defender.

The assumptions made by positional baselines assume that if a team is lacking in production at positions where the baselines affect the production negatively, those positions can be replaced externally.  This is sometimes true, but often, a fallacy.  And it affects the very thing that positional value sets out to measure.

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After finishing the season on a five game winning streak, and ranked (albeit 25th), the Ole Miss Rebels are ready to take the next step, and led by head coach Houston Nutt and QB Jevan Snead, they are more than worthy of preseason top ten ten recognition, and have legitimate BCS bowl aspirations.

Or so I’ve been told.

DE Greg Hardy and Snead are legitimate first round NFL prospects, but this is the SEC.  A pair of future NFL talents does not guarantee success.  Pretty much all other teams in the conference can match that.

The Rebels began last season with an incredibly unimpressive 4-4 start, but within that start, they upset Florida by a point, and  lost to then No. 1 Alabama by only 4 points.  In the eyes of many, those performances were justified when the Rebels went on a 5-0 tear to finish the season, emphatically capping their best effort of the season by putting a 47 spot on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who were in the National Championship discussion prior to that.

The fact that they had four great games to end the season added to the fact that they ran with the two best teams in the SEC last year has many convinced that they are the third best team in the SEC, and the most serious challenger for Alabama in the SEC West.

Of course, given the eight month layoff between their bowl game and opening kickoff of the 2009 season, the fact that they looked like a top team at the end of the year seemingly has little relevance.  If they had played their best games in the middle of last season, and had ended with losses to LSU and Texas Tech, it’s safe to say that only a handful of people would have even put them in their top 25.  Beating Florida would have been every bit as impressive as it was, and yet, the same team with a stronger performance in the middle of the season, but weaker at the end of the season would be considered the 8th or 9th best team in it’s own conference.

I’m open to arguments from Rebel fans as to why the team’s improved play in it’s final five games has special significance, and I suppose the team could improve over last year’s level of play, but outside of Snead at quarterback, I don’t see what separates this team from the South Carolina’s, LSU’s, and Tennessee’s of the world.

Any explanation for the team improving would have to explain how they can replace the productivity of NFL first rounders DT Peria Jerry and LT Michael Oher.

So is Snead the answer?  He completed only 56% of his passes for 8.45 yards per attempt, and an obscene 26 TD’s.  I guess there’s room for improvement in his completion percentage, something he’s going to need to improve on to be a legitimate NFL prospect.  But unless he simply gets better at doing what he’s already good at, throwing downfield for yards and TD’s, there’s no way he can get more production than 26 passing TD’s out of his talent.

To me, Snead is near the ceiling of what can be accomplished at the college level.  Now, his NFL prospects are another story.  He’s got plenty to prove to NFL scouts about his ability to translate his skills to the next level, and he’s got 13 games to prove it.  But it seems that, based on his 2008 numbers, any improvement in his ability to read coverages and make accurate passes isn’t going to help him throw for better than 8.45 yards per attempt and 26 TD’s.

If anything, Snead numbers might take a small step back this year.

There’s no Florida on the schedule this year, which is probably the biggest help in getting them into BCS contention this year, but it also means that they have to win 10 games in 12 tries to have any shot to make it in.  Even with no Florida and a soft non-conference schedule, I see only half their games in which they can go in as a unanimous favorite.  This includes: all four non-conference games, and the season finale at Ole Miss.

Even if they can beat Alabama, something that few are predicting, and even if they manage to somehow start 5-0, it’s still not very likely they can finish 5-2 or better.  Between Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU, 2-2 in that stretch seems rather optimistic (though not quite like a 5-0 start).  And even if they manage to beat Alabama, start 5-0, go 2-2 in that stretch, and win the SEC West, their BCS bid still ends if they fail to win the SEC Championship…and the likely favorite to win the SEC East is the Gators.

Still, some are taking the opportunity to give the Rebels some love before they can prove it unwarranted.

They are probably among the top third of teams in college football at this point.  That just doesn’t make them a very good bet to surprise in the SEC