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Since 2006, no NFC Quarterback has been more productive than Tony Romo of the Cowboys.  Not Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, or even Drew Brees.  He’s not without his flaws, certainly, interceptions and turnovers among them.  But considering the investment: an undrafted signing in 2003, he’s been one of the best value signings of the last decade.

Which brings me to a bet made the other day by a friend: that the Lions quarterback will have comparable or better statistics than Tony Romo (the most valuable QB in the NFC over a three year period) will this season.  Keep in mind that we don’t even know who the Lions quarterback is going to be this year.  On the surface: it’s an insane, unwinnable bet.  However, the reason I’m writing about this is because things often aren’t what they seem.

I guess a good place to start would be to decide if we can determine which Lions quarterback is more likely to start.  Daunte Culpepper is in a tough spot: he’s trying to resurrect his career on a franchise that became the first to lose 16 games in a single season, and spent the first overall draft pick on a quarterback, which makes any gains that Culpepper makes by virtue of system useless to him in the long term.  But, the offensive coordinator is Scott Linehan, who coached Culpepper in his best years with the Vikings, when Culpepper could be mentioned with the best players of the pre-Manning/Brady era passers.  His career has gone downhill very fast since his record setting 2004 season, but reports are unanimously positive on his preparedness this year.  Stafford, on the other hand, is a highly touted rookie who, according to many scouts, needs seasoning on the practice field before he plays in games.

Knowing Jim Schwartz’ philosophy, Stafford will play as soon as 1) he is ready to play, and 2) the Lions have little to gain with Culpepper anymore.  Culpepper is not going to be on this team in 2010, so for there to be a situation where Stafford plays not at all, the Lions would have to be competing for a playoff spot in 2009, which seems unlikely.  In all reasonable cases, Stafford is going to play sooner than later, but thanks to the hire of Linehan, I think Culpepper is going to get a shot.  In the most likely case, both quarterbacks should get about half a season.

Of course, if Culpepper gets pulled for Stafford’s future prospects, it’s safe to say he probably did not resurrect images of his 2004 season.  So if this bet is to be won, two things need to happen: Culpepper needs to avoid having a horrific 5 INT game (like he did in Cincinnati in 2005), and Stafford must do the same, while Tono Romo produces his worst statistical season of his career.  There are reasons to believe that both of things may occur.

For the first time in his career, Tony Romo will not be playing behind a pro bowl line, and his one pro bowl receiver will be his tight end.  The Dallas OL posted a 4.5% adjusted sack rate (ASR) in 2007, and that number rose to 5.8% last year.  The players on that line are aging badly, and the Cowboys only used one pick on a lineman this year: a 4th rounder on Ball State’s Robert Brewster, who does not figure to make an immediate contribution. In addition to this, the Cowboys running backs and tight ends are, on the whole, not a very helpful pass blocking unit.  Marion Barber is the best of the bunch in that respect, and it’s the weakest part of his game.  The offense is about Romo, and spreading the field, not about protecting the quarterback.

The receiver situation is significantly worse, as any move toward the middle of the pack in that aspect relies on either an unexpected rebound from Roy Williams, who may simply be a poor fit in the Cowboys offense, or a big jump in development from third year player Miles Austin.  Jason Witten is going to be good for his normal production, but with a declining unit around him, Tony Romo’s numbers are the ones that will be affected, not Witten’s.  The Football Outsiders’ projections have Romo’s Net Yards per Pass figure declining by 0.6, a significant amount.  That’s enough to take him from a top ten quarterback in 2008 to a middle of the pack NFL quarterback in 2009.  Put simply: Tony Romo is likely to miss the 90.0 threshold in QB rating for the first time in his career.

Of course, that’s only one element of the bet.  It may very well be the hidden element; one who bets on Romo outproducing the Lions probably is naturally expecting top ten production from Romo, but this bet also requires marked improvement from the Lions quarterbacks over last year.  The most productive Lions QB from last year, Dan Orlovsky, was good for 5.7 net yards per attempt, or roughly 3/4 of a yard less than this year’s Romo projection.  Orlovsky has moved on to Houston, leaving the Lions to replace his production with Culpepper and/or Stafford.  Orlovsky had a QB rating of 72.6, which would have been unacceptable in the context of the bet.  There is, however, reason to believe that Culpepper can improve on the baseline set by Orlovsky and at least challenge the numbers that I expect Romo to produce this season.

When this bet was made, it was made under the assumption that Culpepper would get all the snaps in Stafford’s rookie year.  Now, Daunte Culpepper has always put up the numbers.  In fact, if you want a cautionary tale for Tony Romo’s career, look at Culpepper.  It wasn’t the sudden inability to produce that turned Culpepper into a journeyman, it was the inability to hold onto the football.  The most probable way this bet is lost involves Culpepper starting off strong, but leading into the bye week with two or three 3 turnover games, costing him his starting job six games in.  If Matt Stafford starts between 11 and 8 games this year, it’s probably not a good indicator for the Lions, compared to say, if he wins the job out of training camp, or the Lions remain in the playoff hunt until after Thanksgiving.

The Detroit offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than the one that Dallas will run out there.  The Lions are strong at the guard positions, very mediocre at the tackles, and have a top of the line center in Dominic Raiola.  They signed RB Maurice Morris, a good pass blocker, to back up Kevin Smith.  The selection of TE Brandon Pettigrew in the first round shows a flexibility to build their passing offense around the concept of protecting their quarterback as opposed to spreading the field.  Pettigrew also brings them a middle of the field presence, which Culpepper has never had, and in his third year Calvin Johnson looks to establish his place among the game’s best receivers.  For all the flack the Lions are going to catch for their 0-16 offense from a year ago, this is not a winless unit.  More significantly, it’s the strongest offensive unit that Daunte Culpepper has had since leaving the Vikings.

That, in part, is why Daunte Culpepper has a decent, if turnover-prone, projection from Football Outsiders.  He’s projected for a respectable 6.2 net yards per pass attempt in the Lions offense, which would put him up in the middle of the pack over the whole season.  But he’s projected by the same source to fumble 10 times and throw 16 interceptions, and you and I both know that there’s no way that Culpepper makes it through this whole season without cutting down on the turnovers.  If Matt Stafford plays, he’ll probably be less prone to the turnover than Culpepper, but an increased sack rate might contribute to a lower level of productivity.

In essence, this bet boils down to a few unlikely things occurring, and the probability certainly says it’s a going to be a losing effort, especially at 1 to 1 odds.  But based on a few factors, such as the health of both Daunte Culpepper and Tony Romo, the coaching plans by the Lions for their quarterbacks, and the overall decline of the Cowboys’ passing game, I find this a far more interesting bet than you would think because underlined by a bunch of critical story lines regarding the 2009 NFL season, and it’s a fun way to make a statement if you really buy into the new Lions offense–what this all this optimism really is, at it’s core.

The 2009 Washington Nationals might want to start looking at their baseball history.  Specifically, the case of the 2003 Detroit Tigers.

The 2003 Tigers lost 119 games, losing more than 70% of it’s contests.  Three years later, they represented the AL in the world series, and in the mind of most, were the favorites to win it.  The Nationals may not lose 120 games this year (they probably won’t), and they might not be at the top of the NL in 2012 (it’s unlikely, to say the least), but the model of the Detroit Tigers might help the Nationals build a plan to improve, and do so quickly.

If we quickly look at the Tigers that year, they featured only three regulars from the season produced above average OPS+ figures: 1B Carlos Pena, who has since become arguably the most prolific power hitter in the AL with the Tampa Bay Rays; 3B Eric Munson, and DH/1B Dimitri Young, who needs no introduction.  No regular pitchers produced above average ERA+ figures.

But just because that one Tigers team was littered with replacement level hitters and terrible pitching didn’t mean that the team had no contributors.  The catcher on that team was Brandon Inge, who the Tigers turned into arguably the league’s best defensive third baseman.  LF Craig Monroe ended up having three productive years following the 2003 season.  RF Bobby Higginson was the superstar on this Tigers team, but the 2003 season was really the beginning of the end for him.  It’s too bad it didn’t come sooner, because currently productive Marlins outfielder Cody Ross was a young player in the Tigers system who couldn’t get ABs.

The Nationals are, at a glance, much better off in that respect.  For one thing, the Nationals are by no means a poor hitting team.  In fact, they are probably another middle infielder away from a league average lineup.  The defense has been horrific all year (no fault to Ryan Zimmerman), and the pitching has been worse than that.  More significantly, once you get past John Lannan in the rotation, none of their young talent has appeared to be remotely promising.  Jordan Zimmerman at least appears to be holding his own in that rotation, but the rest of the contributors are veterans who are not in the teams long term plans (Ron Villone/Joe Beimel).

The Nationals likely aren’t going to find themselves penny pinching like, say, the Marlins anytime soon, so they can always reasonably expect to replace the contributions of the veterans they are getting right now.  The first part of the formula for the Nats to get to respectability is to sign major league quality pitching.  Last year, they drafted Missouri P Aaron Crow in the first round, and did not sign him over a matter of roughly a half million dollars.  This year, Crow was drafted by the Royals.  This only makes the prospective signing of first overall draft pick Steven Strasburg more critical.

The second part of this equation is the challenging part: the Nats will remain uncompetitive until they can improve their team defense.  Unlike some other teams in the league, the Nats don’t simply have to develop and sign better defenders.  They have to do so without significantly hurting their own offense.  They helped this out some by trading for CF Nyjer Morgan from the Pirates, but LF Adam Dunn will continue to be a butcher with the glove (and great with the bat), and players like 1B Nick Johnson, OF Josh Willingham, or SS Christian Guzman are hurting this defense more than they are helping.  The positions of Catcher and 2nd Base are already black holes on this team, and the Nationals would likely find it cheaper to acquire defense in those positions than to go out for offense.

Dunn would have considerable trade value to an AL team, so the Nationals would be wise to pursue potential trade options in the offseason.  In the short term, the Nationals could add 2B Mark Grudzielanek as a free agent, as though he is 38 years old, he’s still an above average defender.   The defensive shortstop market is strong this offseason, and it should not be hard to replace Guzman with a better defensive player who can handle the bat, such as Marco Scutaro.  These are all short term things that the Nats could do to achieve respectability in the short term, but the 2003 Tigers became the 2006 Tigers became a world series participant because they developed their pitching, and did it quickly.

In 2003, the Tigers had perhaps their worst pitching staff in team history.  In 2006, they had maybe the best.  The only difference, really, was the development of Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson into frontline starters, and the drafting and subsequent ROY-like season from Justin Verlander.  If Strasburg ends up being the Nats version of Verlander, then a John Lannan, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman rotation makes an intriguing top end on a playoff contender.

Like any other team, a long term plan for building the Nationals will center around drafting and player development, but if the Nationals are looking for a savior, Strasburg is as good a face as any for the role.  As most Nats fans will understand, signing Strasburg is simply the first step, as a marked improvement is as much about identifying the Brandon Inge’s and Nate Robertson’s of your team from the Eric Munson’s and Nate Cornejo’s.  The Nats are a young team, but they aren’t a young, talented team, and that disambiguation the difference between the Rays of two years ago, and the Nats of two years from now.  With good management, the ability to draft and sign amateur talent, and slowly weed out the bad players, the Washington Nationals can be saved.