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It’s probably too early to start this talk, but if I don’t do it now, someone is going to beat me to it.

It’s conceivable that I have a significant bias here, advocating for my favorite baseball player to win the most prestigious award a pitcher can win.  It’s probably not fair to the other candidates, because I’m unlikely to change my opinion barring something totally improbable in the last two months.  You could say that I’m writing with a slant here.

But you can’t say that I’m wrong.

For one thing, this isn’t a particularly strong AL Cy Young race, despite Zack Greinke’s historic awesomeness.  His only legitimate competition is Roy Halladay, and there’s still an off chance that Halladay could wind up in the NL before the end of the day tomorrow.

Last year, I advocated for Halladay to win the Cy Young over Cliff Lee even though Lee had a slightly better ERA.  But Halladay had the higher strikeout rate, and he pitched in 23 more innings.  In my eyes, I’ll take a pitchers who records more total outs in a close race over a guy with a slightly better ERA.

This applies historically as well.  The last Royal to lead the AL in ERA did so by a significant margin: Kevin Appier in 1993.  However, he threw about twenty fewer innings with a higher WHIP and a middling strikeout rate, and finished behind Roger McDowell and Randy Johnson, and rightly so.

Well, as of this moment, Greinke has thrown just as many innings as Roy Halladay has, and that ERA race isn’t all that close.  Greinke leads the AL by more than half a run, and barring a string of three or more “blown” quality starts, will easily finish the season with the AL’s lead in ERA.  The fact that Greinke’s doing what he is with one of the worst defenses in MLB history behind him, a defense that arguably shortens every start by an inning or two simply by misplaying 3 or 4 balls a start, is remarkable.

Put it a different way, here’s a list of all active players who have ever posted a full-season ERA better than Zack Greinke current 2.08 mark (which, as previously menti0ned is somewhat inflated by a bad defense):

Pedro Martinez

And, well, it’s a pretty short list.

There are a few other pitchers in the AL who could get themselves into the Cy Young discussion by finishing strong: Josh Beckett, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Jarrod Washburn, Jered Weaver all have an outside shot.

But the distance of all the non-Roy Halladay pitchers speaks more to just how much of a race this really isn’t right now.

The one blemish against Greinke is his 10-6 record: he may very well only win 15 games.  If Zack Greinke winds up with a 15-9 record and a 2.20 ERA, and the Royals end up 15-18 in his 33 starts, there will be some writers who will not vote for him for Cy Young.  It’s going to happen, might as well prepare yourself.  They’ll look at arguably the greatest pitching season in the last ten years, and ask, rhetorically, if Greinke really did enough?

This same writer will then cast his vote for a player with one or two more wins, and an ERA just south of 3.00.  That may very well be Roy Halladay.  If Halladay pitches well enough to be the clear cut second best AL pitcher in 2008, he’ll get the Cy Young award.  Nevermind that the award was designed for the single most dominant pitcher in the league in any given year.  Greinke is going to lose some votes because he had the audacity to sign with the Royals, because he knew what he was getting into, and because, if he had just been a little better than simply the best, he could have won 20 games.

Plenty of others will give Greinke the nod for consistently wowing us over the course of the year.  9 out of 10 weeks, Greinke goes out and does the amazing, and whether or not you score off him is entirely dependant on your ability (luck) to string your hits together in one inning.

In no uncertain terms, Greinke has been, to this point, the most valuable player in the AL this year.  It’s a testament to his dominance that he’s still in the discussion for the Cy Young, because pretty much any other pitcher in the league would be pushing 15 losses with the lack of run support and defensive support he gets every single start.  Unquestionably, if any pitcher has ever truly deserved the Cy Young, then Greinke needs this honor this year.

Previous Roster Roundouts: Bills, Rams

If the stats vs. scouts debate is making it’s way to football, you can consider the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals it’s first unofficial case study.

The media may be down on the Bengals, but league insiders think that they have as good a shot at the playoffs as any non-playoff team from last season.  It makes sense: the long-maligned defense looks very strong on paper.  The defensive line might not generate much of a pash rush this year, but improvements in depth are forthcoming.  The linebackers are as deep and as strong as any unit in the NFL, given the successful conversion of one USC linebacker (Maualuga) to the strong side and of Keith Rivers’ return from injury.  The secondary is young and improving, and they feel like the addition of Roy Williams as an in-the-box safety makes them a complete defense.

And yet, what can you say about the offense?  It’s full of talent at the skill positions, and with the return of Carson Palmer to health, it’s easy to look at the Bengals as a surprise contender this year.  And compared to most power rankings I’ve seen, some likely will be surprised when the Bengals come out firing out of the gate and winning games.

The stats on them just suggest that they can’t hold up for 16 games at a high level of play.  And looking at the Bengals, their flaws are painfully obvious.  They’ve done everything on the cheap, grabbing even their building blocks with signability in mind.  And when the Bengals have to build entire units through means that include the draft and free agency, they’ve usually failed to do so in a timetable that would warrant any sort of long-term success.  The offensive line is a great example of this.  The Bengals realized that their line needed help, so they drafted Andre Smith out of Alabama to provide a mammoth tackle with dual-blocking ability and to be a staple of the line.  A week later, the team released oft-injured LT Levi Jones.  Neither move was a wrong move, but the timing on the moves make it so that an immediate improvement of the line remains a pipe dream.  The Bengals are still under-talented on the offensive line (particularly on the interior), and will rely on a career guard (Andrew Whitworth) to hold down the LT position over the next year or two until they can find a more permanent solution.  Smith should fit well at RT, but it may not matter.

Similar concerns exist on the D-Line, but the development of young D-tackles Pat Sims and Domata Peko, combined with the signing of Tank Johnson, turns their defensive tackle situation into a strength.  Of course, when the issue last year was pass rush, you may be wondering what the Bengals did to address that.  They drafted Michael Johnson out of Georgia Tech, who profiles as a situational pass rusher in the NFL, but that’s it.  The Bengals will again rely heavily on pressure packages called by defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer to get to the quarterback, which really didn’t work so well last year.

In our prior two Roster Roundouts, I identified the Bills as a team paced by it’s offense, and the Rams as a team paced by it’s defense.  How do the Bengals identify?  Well, from the numbers I’m looking at, there’s no clear trend.  Generally, when the Bengals perform better than expected, it looks like the offense is overachieving those weeks.  But when the Bengals under-perform, they seem to be led into the abyss by their defense first.  It’s easy to conclude that both units need to play better, but that doesn’t tell us where their efforts should be focused.

When in doubt, offense seems to be a better indicator of things to come, so a single key to the Bengals’ season might lie in the health of an under-talented offensive line, and their ability to make good on the promise that Cedric Benson brought to the NFL when he was drafted by the Bears in 2005.  Most significantly, the Bengals were a close to league average offense with Benson in the lineup last year, as opposed to one of the worst offenses in football with the departed Chris Perry.  So much for homegrown talent.

The most promising thing you can take from last year’s Bengals is that you got a better than average effort from the Bengals more times than not.  According to DVOA, the Bengals performed average or better 8 times in 16 games, but in the other 8 games, they were what I would describe as “catastrophically bad” 7 out of the 8.  For the defense, their play got erratic as soon as Hines Ward knocked Keith Rivers out for the season in week seven.  The 5 worst and 5 best defensive performances (again, according to DVOA) followed the Rivers injury.  I have no idea what to make of that, but if I had to take a guess, I would gander that the Rivers injury caused the Bengals to change their bread and butter on defense, which led to more game changing plays, however, also to a disproportional amount of yards and first downs allowed by the secondary.  If this is correct (and there’s little reason to think it is), getting Rivers back will make a large difference in the quality of the team’s defense.

Rivers though, had no impact on the team’s pass rush, which was bad with him, and just as bad without him.  The Bengals get relatively acceptable interior pressure, and linebackers such as reserves Brandon Johnson and Darryl Blackstock are capable of bringing the heat, as is S Roy Williams, but on the starting defensive line, only defensive end Antwaan Odom is going to get after the quarterback with any sort of consistency.

Bengals corner is, in itself, a tough position to play, and the Bengals have spent two first round draft picks at the position with nothing to show for it, yet.  There’s plenty of time for young CBs Leon Hall and Jonathon Joseph to develop, and they have a strong group of safeties behind them to work with, so they are the key to the defense for Cincinnati.

*******

Georgetown College Athletic Complex, Georgetown, KY

The Bengals will decide plenty of roster spots in camp this year, and I’ll outline a few of the more interesting ones below.  Particularly, they have some interesting names in the UDFA department.

Running Back:  Kenny Watson vs. Bernard Scott

Kenny Watson has been the team’s nominal No. 2 RB for as long as I can remember, but he was injured last year and got jumped on the depth chart by Cedric Benson.  This year, the team dealt a defensive player (Orion Harris) to St. Louis for Brian Leonard, who will serve as the No. 2 back.  So that leaves a spot to be won for either Watson or 6th round draft pick Bernard Scott.  Scott is a fantastic talent, but his rap sheet from the last five years makes him look out of place with law-abiding citizens, even in Cincinnati.  Scott is probably a favorite to force Watson out, but the team could keep 4 backs.

Fullback: Fui Vakapuna vs. J.D. Runnels vs. Jeremi Johnson

Johnson is the fullback of the past, Vakapuna is the present, and Runnels is the future.  Of course, you don’t spend three roster positions on fullbacks, so someone is on their way out.  It’s probably Johnson, but he will have training camp to win his roster spot.

Wide Receiver: Antonio Chapman vs. Quan Cosby

Cosby is the first of three undrafted players that has a legit shot to make the Bengals, but he’ll have to do it as a punt returner first and a receiver second.  It would thrill the Bengals to be able to turn to Cosby on punt returns and have a developmental receiver with No. 2 type upside in the mix, but if he doesn’t prove apt on punts this preseason, he’s going to likely be pushed to the practice squad.

Guard: Evan Mathis vs. Andrew Crummey

Mathis was a run-of-the mill journeyman pickup from the Panthers, which means he’s easily replaceable.  Crummey was plucked from the Redskins’ practice squad, and the Maryland product has a projection as a potential NFL starting lineman two years down the road.  If he impresses in camp the Bengals can afford to hand him Mathis’ spot.

Center: Kyle Cook vs. Dan Santucci

This battle is for the starting center job in camp, but the loser could be off the team entirely if a switch to guard doesn’t go over well.  Jonathon Luigs is the center of the future, but does not project as a day one starter.  There’s no way the Bengals are going to leave him off the 53-man roster, so the best man in this battle wins, and the loser could be looking for a job.

Linebacker: Abdul Hodge vs. Dan Skuta

Skuta, undrafted out of D-II powerhouse Grand Valley State, had a late round projection in the draft after impressing at his pro day, but went undrafted where the Bengals signed him.  Hodge, a third round pick of the Packers in 2006, now on his second team.  Hodge is the favorite going into camp, but Mike Zimmer may opt for the higher upside of the two players if they are close in camp.  That’s Skuta.

Cornerback: Morgan Trent vs. Rico Murray

There are two undrafteds vying for the final CB spot, and Trent’s likely a big favorite based on the Michigan-Cincinnati pipeline, not to mention Trent’s southern California ties, another Bengals’ pipeline.  Murray is an in-state product from Kent State, a 4 year starter, but Trent comes with the name recognition that the Bengals value, and he’s the better cover player of the two, if not the better athlete.

Safety: Chinedum Ndukwe vs. Corey Lynch

Lynch was last seen by the public leading the App. State upset of ranked Michigan in 2007, back when beating Michigan actually meant something.  Ndukwe is a Notre Dame product who has played very well since being the team’s 7th round draft pick in 2007, and is a strong favorite here.  Perhaps I shouldn’t name a favorite though, since if Lynch has a better camp, I don’t see the team releasing him.  Again, keeping 5 safeties is in the realm of possibility.

Surprise Cuts?

• WR Andre Caldwell
• TE Reggie Kelly
• DE Frostee Rucker
• DT Tank Johnson
• LB Rashad Jeanty

Today, I got a chance to see Royals prospect Sam Runion, a 20 year old RHP, start for the Burlington Bees against the West Michigan Whitecaps.  What follows is an incredibly amateur scouting report based on his performance.

First, though, a story.  Sam Runion was a 2007 2nd round draft pick of the Royals out of A.C. Reynolds High School in Asheville, North Carolina.  He signed shortly thereafter, and began his professional career in rookie ball in Arizona.  A classic control pitcher with a good fastball, Runion played very well out of the gate in 2007, striking out 9 batters per 9 innings in Arizona.

He began the 2008 season playing near his home, with the Burlington (NC) Royals, dropped his ERA to 3.35 in 10 starts which, combined with his draft position and age, earned him prospect status.

Promoted to Burlington in the middle of the 2008 season Runion was expected to continue to flourish, but his ERA has skyrocketed while his peripherals have fallen apart completely.  Runion, who was almost unhittable in Burlington, saw a massive increase in his hit and home run rate, but the decline in his strikeout rate has been most devastating.  Returning to Burlington in 2009, Runion entered today with a 6.30 ERA in 94.1 innings.

The West Michigan Whitecaps (Detroit Tigers affiliate) are the class of the midwest league, and would prove to be Runion’s biggest challenge of the season.  Runion started out in the first inning demonstrating a spectacular range of speeds, throwing 4 different pitches which ranged from an 88-90 mph fastball to a 56-59 mph slow (knuckle?) curve.  He threw both a changeup in the upper 70′s, and some sort of a breaking ball in the mid to low 70′s that might have been a power curve, a slider, a slurve, or something similar.

Before Runion had his second out, he had already committed a fielding error, and had given up a two run homer to put the Whitecaps up 3-0.  The home run pitch was that extremely slow curve that he simply left up in the zone out over the plate, and WM DH Billy Nowlin hit it at least 430 feet, if not further.

True to the scouting reports I’ve read on him, Runion does not often get too far behind in the count.  He struggled with his control a little bit in the first inning, throwing one ball to the backstop, and getting behind 2-0 at times, but Runion is good at throwing his fastball and his changeup for first pitch strikes.  He’s also appeared to be an incredibly hittable pitcher early in the count.  But as Runion started to work some hitters over, he got ahead 0-2, or 1-2, and appeared to be quite good at getting groundballs to get him out of innings.

The floodgates would open once again on him in the 5th inning, and at this point, I thought he was relying too heavily on his fastball, and the top five hitters in the order for the Whitecaps were just taking him to the warning track on every at bat.  They did not get one out of the park after the first inning, but this appears to be a trend with Runion: when he tires, he leaves his fastball out over the plate, and if he gets it up in the zone, the ball will travel.

Runion also appears to be a very poor defender even for a pitcher.  He was charged with an error, that really was a misplayed ball by the first basemen (who left his zone to cut off a 3 hopper), forcing Runion to hustle over to the bag, and field a 1-hopped throw while moving, which did not happen, and cost the Bees a free base.  Later in the game though, WM CF Brent Wyatt, a fine player in his own right, layed a bunt down the third base line, and it was a play that probably should have been made.  Runion, however, didn’t come charging off the mound, and his throw to first was consequently late.

Overall, Runion compiled a line of 6 IP, 7 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, and the lone homer, against a team much better than his own.  Even a good performance by Runion might not have changed the outcome of this one, but I came away thinking that I just didn’t see any sort of  “out” pitch the whole outing, and this would explain Runion’s terrible strikeout rate.  I do think he might have a future if he can develop a strong ground ball tendency: he can improve his walk rate by working with his fastball and his changeup more exclusively (the breaking stuff simply fooled no one), but without the ability to get ground ball outs, Runion might not ever make it as far as double-A.

For Royals GM Dayton Moore, the calling into question of Runion’s prospect status has to be disheartening.  If nothing else, Moore will be measured by how he does with his early round picks, and while players like Johnny Giovatella, Eric Hosmer, Michael Montgomery, and Mike Moustakas are moving through the system according to plan, Moore’s drafting resume would look a lot better if Runion bounces back next year, and rights himself on the path to the big leagues.  I think this could still happen, but he’s going to have to simply his repitoire to make the next step.

I’ll preface this by saying that I don’t believe that either Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee is likely to be traded before the July 31 deadline.  It’s one of those things that just makes too much sense for the self respecting people who are involved to get done.

To start, we’ve got two teams in the very rare situation of being able to afford to deal their aces for a package of prospects without really hurting their short-term forecasts.  The Blue Jays can’t feel like they will be competitive in the AL East next season with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all at the height of their power.  The Jays missed their opportunity to strike with Halladay when the AL East was just Boston and New York, and when they didn’t compete in 2007, it turned out to be the last realistic chance they had at making the postseason with Roy Halladay.

And for the Indians, they’re now looking at two consecutive seasons gone wrong in which Cliff Lee was the only bright spot.  Unlike the Jays, they won’t be dead in the water next season on opening day, but there’s little doubt that based on where the team is now, if you can turn Cliff Lee into a package of prospects, then you do it.

So the ball is in the court of the rest of the league.  Just last year, the Brewers made a bold move when they took Matt LaPorta and some lesser hyped prospects, and put together a package for CC Sabathia.  It’s a move that took a team that had little business talking playoffs, and it got them into the postseason.

Both Lee and Halladay are more valuable to teams, especially teams in weak divisions, because both are prospectively under team control for the 2010 season.  If you are the San Francisco Giants, or the Milwaukee Brewers, or St. Louis Cardinals, or California Angels, or Minnesota Twins, or Colorado Rockies, you have to do everything in your power to acquire these talents.  It might put you over the top this year, and you might end up winning your division next year.

The package that the Blue Jays, reportedly, are asking for in exchange for Halladay involves 3 prospects including 2 who are near the top of the organizational charts.  From the Phillies, they asked for OF Dominic Brown and P Kyle Drabek, as well as P J.A. Happ.  Forget the fact that the Phillies are going to win their division this year without Halladay.  Forget that they have legitimate reasons to protect their farm system for a minute.  A package like that would steal Cliff Lee, and Halladay is the better pitcher of the two.  The Blue Jays absolutely should be asking for the farm, and while the Phillies shouldn’t necessarily give in, it brings up the big question: where are all the other teams?

Those teams that can afford a package should do so.  Roy Halladay brings instant credibility to your franchise.  While the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies do not need this credibility boost, those are the names you are getting around Halladay.  In my opinion, the two teams that absolutely need to get in on this are the Minnesota Twins, and the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Rays have more prospects than they can possibly fit in a major league lineup, and they can absolutely blow away the Indians with a package aimed at getting Cliff Lee.  The Minnesota Twins had Johan Santana and traded him for prospects, but if they want to win the AL Central, Roy Halladay would make them the instant favorite.

Of course, a recent MLB Trade Rumors report suggests that Roy Halladay will not waive his no trade clause to be traded to the Twins, and all I can say about that is: this is good for the Indians.  Halladay’s no trade clause has effectively driven up the price of Lee.  Halladay’s value is already every bit as high as it’s ever been, but last year, it was Lee who won the Cy Young (over Halladay), and Lee’s been just as good this year.

If neither of them get traded, it’s a terrible, terrible day for fans of a majority of teams in baseball.  Your team, whoever you root for, should be putting together an offer for one of the best pitchers in the American League.   Instead, too many teams are content to stand pat, and try to win over the next two years with what they already have.

If you aren’t planning on competing in 2010, or you already are out this year or have your division locked up, it excuses you.  But at least half the league doesn’t fall into that category, and too many teams are being hesitant on Halladay and Lee when they should be seizing the opportunity.

Link here.  Common sense here.

I’m planning on using this here space to make power rankings-like arguments, and there’s nothing wrong with doing power rankings in the offseason.  Some think preseason power rankings are a waste of time, and I can respect that.

ESPN is trying to prove you correct.

To have a defensible set of power rankings, you have to make them either 1) predictive, or 2) observational.  If you do observational power rankings in the offseason, well, the results are going to be heavily based on the results of the prior season.

If you choose to have four men of varying competency create a mean vote style of power rankings, it makes sense to specifically outline the critera.  What are you voting on?

ESPN.com’s Power Rankings

The rankings were determined by a poll of four voters on ESPN.com’s NFL staff: writers John Clayton (AFC East, NFC East), Jeffri Chadiha (AFC North, NFC North), Paul Kuharsky (AFC South, AFC West), and Mike Sando (NFC South, NFC West). They voted on all 32 teams, and their last names are logged after their comments about the respective divisional teams.

Why have one person make power rankings based on a single premise, when you could have four people voting on different premises?  ESPN’s goal to blur the lines between predictive and observational rankings does nothing except create a great big mess of conventional wisdom.  Which is completely useless.

You only have to get one line into the rankings before Jeffery Chadiha proves them completely unreadable:

1. Steelers: They won the Super Bowl. What else do you need to know?

Thanks, doofus.

Previous Roster Roundouts: Buffalo Bills

If asked to sum up the job of an NFL personnel director in simply one sentence, I’d have to say that the job is all about collecting the best quality of talent from the strongest bases of talent available (i.e. the draft) while using all of the information available to avoid perilous decisions.

The St. Louis Rams probably should have asked for another sentence or two.

What can you say to a team that, under it’s prior leadership, won 5 games in it’s last two seasons?  Move to Kansas City and you’ll be the best show in town?  No, that’s no good.  The Rams have acquired talent.  They haven’t traded their early draft picks, they haven’t cut or tried to replace their proven franchise quarterback, even though we’re now two years removed from his last good season.  They’ve converted their picks into the best available talent each year, and well, it just hasn’t mattered.  They aren’t a game better than they were the day this rebuilding started.

The 2007 and 2008 Rams were talented football teams, but they were completely and utterly mismanaged.  Scott Linehan proved to be an inept coach: it wasn’t his fault that the team got off to a crappy start in 2007 following a 8-8 rookie season, but given a calendar year to pull the Rams out of the abyss, Linehan just appeared to make things worse.  The team eventually gave up on him, and he was ousted in September of last year.  The team then made Jim Haslett head coach, got three straight good performances from it’s defense leading to 2 wins in the NFC East and an near-upset of the Patriots, then got blown out of the water by the Cardinals and quit on Haslett.

Haslett is now a head man in the upstart UFL, where he can have a two win team that isn’t quite as bad.  After owner Georgia Frontiere passed away, the Rams cleaned house, got rid of their management, brought in Billy Devaney to be the new G.M., and he hired Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo as head man.  On the surface, the power structure appears to be proper.

Marc Bulger has now survived two head coach firings at quarterback, and even he knows that if things don’t get better shortly, not even the most patient of franchises can string him out any longer.  Bulger is a deadly accurate passer with a quick release, but he has always held on to the ball a long time.  That’s the Martz offense for you.  Lots of downfield action, and he expects his quarterbacks to know their protections, wait for plays to develop, and get the ball downfield.

You can’t change Marc Bulger, he’s a mid-tier quarterback who can really light up the scoreboard when given a fighting chance, but Bulger has absolutely not adjusted to life on a bad offense.  Torry Holt’s gradual decline began in 2005, and by 2008, he wasn’t really shaking No. 2 CBs with any frequency anymore.  Rookie WR Donnie Avery was a big boost last year, probably the team’s best wide receiver, but looked like a rookie more often than not.  Tertiary receivers were completely non-existant.

What’s remarkable about the Rams is that, since the 1999 season, the team has only had two leading passers, two leading rushers, and two leading receivers, and in each case, once the successor took over, he has led in his statistical category each season since breaking out.  Bulger (’02), Steven Jackson (’05), and Holt (’00) have been a dynamic trio for a very long time now, and with Holt moving on, the Rams would like to slot Avery in as the leading receiver and have Bulger, Jackson, and Avery be a set of triplets through 2011.  Jackson has been remarkably consistent–he’s had injuries that have prevented him from duplicating his excellent 2006 season, but his YPC is consistently over 4.0 every season, and he’s now produced 4 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons.  Jackson, not Bulger, is the best player on the offense.

It’s simply not fathomable that a unit led by a quarterback as historically productive as Bulger and a running back as consistently productive as Jackson could be held irrelivant three years in a row, and thanks to some upgrades on the offensive line and a scheme change, it should be improved.  Baylor OT Jason Smith went second in the draft to the Rams, and his services will be required instantly, though the team likes him on the right side as opposed to the more traditional blind side.  The line should be much better without the oft injured former pro bowler Orlando Pace, who takes his act to Chicago.

Outside of cutting Pace, the team made two controversial moves this offseason, and if they both pay off, a playoff bound Rams team in the NFC West might not be such a ridiculous thing.  First, the Jason Brown signing must work out.  Brown was a young, functional Center with upside when with the Baltimore Ravens, and now he’s walking headstrong into a disfuntional offensive line with talented blockers on either side of him.  Simply put, he needs to help the protection get better, or he was a serious waste of money.  Second, the Rams released their leading tackler, Pisa Tinoisamoa, who also signed with Chicago.  Presumably, this happened because the new regime liked what they saw of young SLB Quentin Culberson from last year, and think he can be a superstar in this defense.  If that wasn’t the reason for dumping Tinoisamoa, well, then color me confused on this one.  Both moves are high upside moves that absoultely have to work for a quick turnaround.

For the Rams, it’s a critical season.  It would be nice if Steve Spagnuolo’s defense joined the Rams offense at the party, but they simply aren’t very deep there, and the Rams offense might have to carry the day yet again.

Rams Camp, Russell Training Center, Earth City, MO

Unless the Rams do a significant amount of waiver wire shopping, there are not very many camp battles to be had.  Here are the most significant:

Running back: Antonio Pittman vs. Chris Ogbonnaya vs. Samkon Gado

The Rams may choose to keep up to four running backs, although they’ll probably settle for just three.  Pittman was a fourth round pick of the Saints who didn’t make it out of camp with them.  Ogbonnaya, is the most intriguing of the bunch, as he was undrafted out of Texas and could make an impact as a first year player.  Gado seems to be the longshot, as his days as a fantasy league savior in 2005 are far enough in the rear-view mirror where he just might be on his last shot in the NFL.  If so, it was a pretty awesome run.

Wide Receiver: Tim Carter vs. Derek Stanley

Both of these guys have special teams experience returning kicks, and as an active fifth or sixth receiver, that’s where their mark will be made.  Stanley is a young player with more upside, and probably the favorite, while Carter is a journeyman who can offer veteran receiving skills in addition to his raw speed, but not much else.

Defensive Tackle: Ian Campbell vs. Common Sense

Seems like Campbell already won this battle in OTA’s.  The K-State product was battling trade receipt Orion Harris for a defensive tackle spot, and last week, Harris got traded agan: this time to Detroit for Ronald Curry.  That makes the undrafted Campbell a strong favorite to make the team at defensive tackle.

Safety: Eric Bassey vs. Todd Johnson

Eric Bassey was a practice squad player who got on the field at the end of last year and held his own, while Todd Johnson has bounced around the league since his Bears days.  Johnson is the favorite, and since Spagnuolo plays a strong safety up near the line, Johnson has a place for him cut out in this defense.  Of course, for a journeyman, no job comes with much security.

Surprise Cuts?

• TE Joe Klopfenstein
• DE Victor Adeyanju
• G Roy Scheuning
• LB Chris Draft
• CB Tye Hill

Let’s start with the positives: the Buffalo Bills won all four of their September games last year, and began the 2008 NFL season 5-1.

Okay, well, that didn’t take long.

Following a finish in which the team lost 8 of it’s final 10 games, the Buffalo Bills approached the offseason and decided to both rebuild and reload.  After the well-publicized and now equally well traveled Terrell Owens got his walking papers from the Dallas Cowboys, agent Drew Rosenhaus claimed to have calls from four teams interested in Owens.  Not one media source could find a single team who would give Rosenhaus the time of day regarding Owens, but that became easily explained when Buffalo sigend Owens to a one-year, 6 million dollar contract only three days after his release.

Perhaps the NFL’s most public figure instantly becomes the face of it’s least public team.  The Cincinnati Bengals have attempted to prove that no publicity is bad publicity, and the Bills feel like they can benefit from Owens more than he can potentially hurt the team.

Owens’ stature may provide the Bills instant credibility, but if the Bills are going to be competitive this year, they’ll have to improve their passing game, which ranked 22nd in the NFL in yards per game, and 27th in the NFL in DVOA.

The problem, however, was not as much about the receivers, it was about the turnovers.  The Bills fumbled more frequently than any other team in the NFL.  In games where the Bills won the turnover differential, they were 5-0.  In games where they lost it, they were 1-8.  Turnover differential is a statistic that correlates strongly with wins and losses, but it’s also a very weak predictor of itself on a season to season level.  Just because the Bills finished -8 in turnover differential in 2008 doesn’t mean they’ll finish below zero again this year.

However, if you are trying to prevent turnovers, I would suggest not replacing four players on your OL, and then moving your marginal RT to LT, which is exactly what the Bills did this offseason.  Gone are Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery, Melvin Fowler, and Duke Preston, and Langston Walker will be the LT on this team.  Incoming is veteran C Geoff Hangartner, and rookie Gs Eric Wood and Andy Levitre.  There’s a massive talent upgrade on the interior, but the results could be a rough going in the short term.  The Bills offensive line ranked 25th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, and given the comings and goings on the OL that would seem like a reasonable expectation for the 2009 unit.

When the Trent Edwards broke down in the midst of a intra-division three game stretch last season, it was about a clear an indicator as there was that the 4-0 start was a mirage.  They had done it with a below average defense and zero pass rush.  Edwards had only threw two picks in the team’s 5-1 start.  Over the next four games, as the Bills tail spun towards 5-5, Edwards would be picked off 8 times before missing the next two games with injuries.  The problem was a mixture of things out of Edwards’ control going wrong (such as Robert Royal fumbling after a 20-yd completion on 3rd and 19), and piss poor play by the protection unit, Edwards included, but by the time we reached Thanksgiving, Edwards was playing shell shocked, and the Bills were, even just two games out, no longer a playoff contender.  Then they turned to JP Losman, and um…well, they weren’t any less of a playoff contender.

The defensive unit watched it’s top corner, Jabari Greer, sign with New Orleans in the offseason.  Now, the Bills are 10o% reliant on the quick development of Leodis McKelvin into a No. 1 corner.  Donte Whitner spent a lot of time playing out of position last year, which should be rectified this season when he’s closer to the line of scrimmage.  They also drafted a pass rusher in Aaron Maybin, who might be the perfect fit in their defense, a 4-3 scheme where he will be asked to rush the passer and the linebackers will have his back against the run.  That, and, the Bills had no pass rush whatsoever from their defensive line last year.  As I write, the team is preparing for a holdout with Maybin, so that could put a damper on his impact as a rookie.

Bills Camp, St. John Fisher College

Since this is a training camp article, let’s focus on what  the Bills can accomplish in training camp to best improve their chances at improving their team.

For a small market team, the Bills are impressively void of any undrafted rookie talent of the recognizable name variety.  USC CB Cary Harris is probably the biggest name, which is saying something, since the Bills appear loaded at corner.  But the Bills aren’t working on a complete roster just yet.  Here’s some positions where a roster spot can be won by an impressive performance in training camp:

Tight End: Derek Schomann vs. Derek Fine vs. (rookie) Shawn Nelson

The Bills have been forgettable at this position forever, and they were downright laughable last year when they let Robert Royal play 16 games.  Shawn Nelson is raw, but incredibly athletic, and the sooner he can make the starting lineup, the better off the Bills will be.  Schomann vs. Fine for de-facto opening day starter is almost not worth following, because they both play the same game.  If you have to place money, it’s probably (a) Fine.

Xavier Omon

How far up the depth chart can he fly?  Omon is nearly certain to make the roster at running back thanks to a suspension of starter Marshawn Lynch, but if he plays well, he may force the Bills to keep him playing.  He’s got a legitimate shot to pass Dominic Rhodes for the Week 1 2nd RB job, in which case, Rhodes’ stay here might be a short one.

Wide Receiver:  Josh Reed vs. Roscoe Parrish vs. P.K. Sam

The addition of P.K. Sam is an interesting one, because he’s a special teamer/kick returner type who made his name with the Ravens, and now could win a job on special teams or even returning kicks for the Bills.  The Bills were trying their damnedest to ship off Roscoe Parrish in a trade package in the offseason, and the team has been trying to replace Josh Reed for at least two years now.  They like WR Steve Johnson, who has the fast track to the fourth receiver job, leaving Reed, Parrish, and Sam to fight it out for only one or two spots.

Offensive Tackle: Jonathon Scott vs. Demetrius Bell

The Bills are unlikely to roster more than three tackles, especially since starting G Kirk Chambers is versatile enough to move outside if needed.  So these two will battle to be the first guy off the bench in a blocking crisis.

Linebacker: Marcus Buggs vs. Ashlee Palmer vs. Jon Corton

There’s not necessarily a spot here for these guys, but if one of them establishes himself as a special teams demon, then the Bills will find a place for him.

Safety: Dustin Fox vs. George Wilson vs. John Wendling

The battle to win a special teams spot, all these contenders have seen playing time in the secondary at different times, and would be about the 4th defensive option, if one can separate from the others in training camp.

There’s also a battle at third quarterback, but between Matt Baker and veteran Gibran Hamdan, I doubt it matters.

Surprise Cuts?

In no particular order, here’s some more well-known names that really need to have a promising camp to earn their spot:

• WR Josh Reed
• WR Roscoe Parrish
• DT John McCargo
• G Seth McKinney
• CB Ashton Youboty

Taking a gander at the NFL’s toughest returning* division from last year.

*NFC South had a better overall record.  They will not return at the same level of strength.

As in most years, the NFC’s toughest division will be determined by divisional play.  Again.  Sort of.  The division champion Giants went a mere 4-2 against the rest of the NFC East, which, yes, was the best figure in the division.  The Cowboys and the Redskins went 3-3, and the Eagles 2-4.  Of course, the division was won by 3.5 games, so there was more going on here than simple divisional dominance.

The New York Giants

The Giants return as the nominal favorite to win the division, but if you end up with the option of betting (simply) on or against the Giants this year, bet against.  In 2007, 10 wins got the Giants into the playoffs, and in position for an eventual super bowl run.  10 wins this year might not be good enough to make the playoffs.

Gone is RB Derrick Ward, WR Plaxico Burress, and WR Amani Toomer, but 9 starters return to the offense.  The defense loses S James Butler, but adds well more than it lost, it’s offseason haul includes: DL Chris Canty, DT Rocky Bernard, LB Michael Boley and LB Clint Sintim.  Rookie WRs Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden will work with second and third year players Mario Manningham and Steve Smith to help fill the void at WR.

It’s hard to say if they improved or declined, if only because you can’t necessarily conclusively say where this team was last year.  The defense played worse in the second half of the year, playoff game included, than it did in the first, and the offensive line, best in the league for about ten weeks last year, was hardly stellar down the stretch.  The Giants started 11-1, but finished as a very average team, unable to beat the Cowboys or the Eagles, and catching the Redskins on a bad day en route to a relatively unimpressive rout.  They didn’t play particularly well against either the Bengals or Browns last year, and though they beat the Steelers on the road, it’s a game that the Steelers were able to close out the rest of the year.

If everything goes right, then…the Giants will again win the Super Bowl.  They need all of their offensive lineman to stay healthy for another 16 games to keep Manning comfortable in the pocket, they need one of Hicks, Smith, or Domenik Hixon to emerge as a dependable target on offense to keep Manning moving the chains, and the defense needs to be better than it was at the end of the year last year, which means the secondary must shore up it’s SS and No. 2 CB positions.

Honestly, what could go wrong?… Well, for starters, Eli Manning could crack early on.  Though baby Manning is as fundamentally sound as any passer in the NFL, he’s the least accurate passer of any player in the league who could be remotely considered an NFL quarterback.  If none of the receivers emerge early, it could be a rough season for Manning.  On top of that, the offensive line is aging at 4 out of 5 positions, and one or two injuries would open the floodgates for defenses to attack Manning.  Brandon Jacobs is hardly a productive runner behind a mediocre or weak offensive line (which he’s never had to deal with).  The linebackers could be worse than anyone currently expects, especially since no one really knows what the scheme will call for.  If Aaron Ross doesn’t develop this year, the Giants likely will not wait on him much longer.

For a half-assed prediction… The Giants are more likely to finish in second place this year than with any other result.  Their incredible defensive depth will keep them in the running for the division title deep into the season, but it’s the offense that might be of concern as the season drags on.  This is less about Manning himself, and more about what happens to Manning when conditions around him break down.  Over the last 21 games or so, we’ve seen Eli when everyone around him knows what to do, but this year, his performance should be much more of a mixed bag of baffling interceptions and gutsy-blitz defying throws.

Overall, if the NFC is significantly weaker than expected, the Giants are the team best built to weather adversity.  They are not the team who is most likely to avoid adversity altogether.  10-11 wins is likely, but 8-9 would not be pessimistic.

The Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles very nearly parlayed a miracle playoff berth into a super bowl appearance.  Early on, the Eagles ran into some bad fortune when the Cowboys and Bears both played above their talent to win close games, and the Redskins defense showed a dominance of the Eagles’ offense that it simply never showed over any other team.  While the Eagles were crushing all their opponents in the games they were inning in the first half of the year, a three game winless streak against the Giants, Bengals, and Ravens put the Eagles’ season very much on the ropes.  After running off three consecutive victories, the Eagles once again failed to perform offensively against the Redskins, and lost pretty much all hopes of making the playoffs.

Except, with improbable losses by the Bears and Bucs in Week 17, the Eagles were given a reprieve against the Cowboys, a win and you’re in situation, a game that would be won 44-6, and the Eagles defense carried the team through the Vikings and the Giants, into the NFC Championship game.

Despite another Championship game loss, the Eagles ended the season playing the best football of any team in the NFC East by far.  A lot of people think that their good performance will carry over into the 2009 season, in spite of some significant roster turnover.

If everything goes right, then…the Eagles will win the super bowl.  Donovan McNabb will produce another McNabb-like season, only this team, one of his three or so bad games a season won’t overlap with the playoffs.  McNabb, historically, has been a great performer in the playoffs, but his three worst performances have ended the seasons of the three best Eagle teams in memory, 2002-2004.  After a three year hiatus, McNabb was back in the postseason in 2008, and was as good as ever…up until the Championship game against Arizona.

Brian Westbrook will bounce back from an injury-riddled 2008 campaign to re-establish himself as the top offensive weapon in the NFC, and the defense will prove not to miss Jim Johnson at all, as a incredibly strong defensive line helps spring a productive linebacker corps, and the defense leads it’s offense to the super bowl and over the top.

Honestly, what could go wrong?… Three major things could de-feather the Eagles.  First, if Westbrook doesn’t return to form, and he’s 30 now, the Eagles offense will enter 2009 without a dynamic weapon to lean on.  The second major thing is the defense, which, talent-wise should be among the best or second best in the NFC.  It should be better than the Giants’.  But with Jim Johnson out of coaching for at least one year, the pressure-oriented schemes will change, and this creates a weakness in a long-ignored area on the Eagles, the linebackers.  We’ll get to see if Stewart Bradley is a scheme adaptable talent, or simply a good scouting find by the Eagles.  A middle of the pack defense would not be becoming of a super bowl contender.  The final issue: the offensive line.  They’ve infused the unit with both talent, and with youth, but is it better?  An improvement over last year’s not-so-terrible offensive line relies on Jason Peters to prove that his 2008 league-leading sacks allowed season was an aberration, it relies on Stacey and Shawn Andrews to find the right balance on the right side, and it requires a talent improvement in the middle of the line where Todd Herremans and Jamaal Jackson have been only somewhat adequate.  Any one of these three things becoming a major issue limits what the Eagles can accomplish this year.

For a half-assed prediction… These Eagles are not anything like last year’s version.  They might be significantly better, and they might also be moderately worse, but in the most likely of probabilities, they’ll somewhat resemble their team from last season.  We got to see the best, and the worst, of that Eagles team, as they at different times were close to securing a top ten draft pick, and heading to the super bowl.  I’m not forecasting a decline in McNabb’s numbers, but if Brian Westbrook doesn’t run wild right from the first carry, it’s necessary that the Eagles find a way to spread his excess offense around to guys like DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and Brent Celek, essentially making McNabb the focal point of the passing game again.

The Eagles have the makings of a 10-win team.  They have the talent to win 12-13, but also the uncertainty to be a 7-9 win team.

The Dallas Cowboys

Given the preseason expectations of the 2008 Cowboys, the argument could be made that last season’s 9-7 finish was a complete and utter disaster, but the hype around this team was 100% pure media creation.  Like any other team that comes out of no where to be a playoff team, if the fundamentals aren’t strong, you can expect a multiple-win regression in the next season.  The 2007 Cowboys didn’t have the fundamental statistics to back up their 13-3 record, nor did they have an over abundance of big game victories to suggest legitimacy.  They were just a good team, not a great one.  The 2008 Cowboys were also a good team.  But after an injury or two, they weren’t really a playoff team, and sure enough, they ended up missing the playoffs last year.

If everything goes right, then… The Cowboys have the talent to return to the playoffs.  Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are talented enough to replace Terrell Owens in the lineup, and Roy Williams can only get better.  Kyle Kosier’s return to the offensive line should help.  16 games of a healthy Terence Newman means an improved pass defense, and Keith Brooking is a better scheme fit at ILB than was Zach Thomas.  The running game figures to be the strength of the offense, behind a triple headed attack lead by Marion Barber.

Honestly, what could go wrong?… In Dallas?  There’s no guarantee that anyone will step up in the receiving corps, as Roy Williams has only one 1,000 yd season to his name, and a low catch rate, historically.  Austin and Hurd look like players, but have yet to prove anything as more than a 4th receiver.

And what if Felix Jones struggles in his second season?  Do the Cowboys relegate him to third string, or do they let him play out his struggles while blocking Tashard Choice?  Tony Romo could see his QB rating drop below 90 for the first time in his short career.  And as possible as it is for the defense to improve, it could also collapse with an injury or two.

But the biggest problem is on the offensive line where Flozell Adams hasn’t been good for two years now, Marc Columbo is a marginal RT, and the overall line has been uncharacteristically resistant to injury in the last three years.  If that doesn’t continue, the Cowboys offense could be a mess in the near future, and it could cost Jason Garrett his job.

For a half-assed prediction… The Cowboys need a lot of things to go right in order to make the playoffs.  They might actually receive a small bump over last year’s level of performance, but it’s going to take a lot more than a small bump to get this team over the hump.  Romo can hope that his receivers will be better this year, but it’s just hope.  So based on that offensive uncertainty, and a defense that figures to take a small step backwards this year, I’m seeing 7-8 wins with a ceiling of 9 or 10.

The Washington Redskins

They started  6-2, and finished 2-6.  But that doesn’t begin or end the story of the 2008 Redskins, it’s just stating what happened.  The best players, and best performers, on the Redskins were on the offensive side of the ball, including Chris Cooley, Chris Samuels, Pete Kendall, Jason Campbell, Mike Sellers, Santana Moss, and Clinton Portis, all among the team’s top ten players from a year ago.  However, the Redskins are a team that allows it’s defense to set the tone for it’s game, and when it’s usually consistent defense underperforms, the team’s performance goes with it.

With that in mind, rather than change that organizational philosophy (which would have seemed easier), the Redskins went out and spent considerable resources to get pieces to the defense that would help them with their tone setting.  Incoming players include: Albert Haynesworth, Brian Orakpo, Jeremy Jarmon, and Kevin Barnes, three rookies among the bunch.

If everything goes right, then…the Redskins are an easy pick to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the playoffs.  Between Haynesworth, Portis, Cooley, Samuels, LaRon Landry, London Fletcher, and Carlos Rogers, the Redskins sport the highest amount of individual talents of any team in the division.  If every one of them stays healthy and productive, this Redskins team sports a legitimate supporting cast to get it done.  The team is littered with young talent as well, possibly for the first time in a long while.  Add to the mix a very soft schedule, and the Redskins figure to win far more games than they lose.

Of course, over the last two years, the No. 1 seed in the playoffs have just served to get upset by someone else in the NFC East, so if history is a guide, the Redskins might be better off sneaking in as a No. 6 seed and knocking off the No. 1.

Honestly, what could go wrong?… Not much could go wrong with regard to the schedule, the Redskins are going to have about 5 wins thrust at them simply for playing bottom-10 type teams, which is 2 more easily winnable games than anyone else in the division has.

However, with the exception of Haynesworth, all of the star power on the Redskins is backed up by essentially nothing.  If Portis gets hurt, the Redskins have no running game.  If Landry gets hurt, the team loses a dual-threat in the secondary that won’t be replaced.  If Samuels gets hurt, the season is over.  If Fletcher gets hurt, the defensive scheme doesn’t work.  The supporting cast is still there, but it’s not going to win games in this division without it’s stars.

For a half-assed prediction… the Redskins, on paper, look like an 11 win team.  They could, however, win as few as seven games if but a few key injuries occur.  If the offensive line gels and they get productivity from last year’s receiving draft class, they could potentially surpass 11 wins to reach 12 or 13.  But that is asking a lot of things to fall right into place.  Barring multiple key injuries, the Redskins will win 10 or 11 games, which may or may not be good enough to win the division, or even make the playoffs.

Liveball’s Projected Order of Finish:

1. Giants (10-12 wins)
2. Redskins (8-12 wins)
3. Eagles (9-11 wins)
4. Cowboys (7-10 wins)

I was reading around last evening, and trying to make some sense of Royals-related win-loss trends…only to find that all I had to do was wait for Joe Posnanski to do the work for me:

Well, there are at least two ways you could look at it. One, you could point out that some really bad teams have gone 18-11 or so over 29 games. The 2002 Kansas City Royals lost exactly 100 games. They were 18-11 from June 22 to July 23. The 2006 Chicago Cubs lost 96 games and were one of the great bad teams in recent memory — they had an 18-11 stretch. The 1980 New York Mets lost 95 games — that’s the last full year of Joe Torre in Queens. They had TWO 18-11 records. The 1996 Detroit Tigers lost 106 games had one of the worst pitching staffs ever. They had a 30-game stretch of 17-13, which isn’t quite 18 games, but that team was awful.

…

Now, the other point is that the Royals have gone 19-46 since that 18-11 start. Does that tell you anything? Um, yeah. In 2008, only one team managed to go 19-46 over a 65 game stretch: The worst team in baseball, the Washington Nationals. In 2007, the only team to do it was … the worst team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays. In 2006, the only teams to do it were … the Kansas City Royals, the Chicago Cubs (who also went 18-11, you might recall) and the Tampa Bay Rays, the three worst teams in baseball. In 2005, only the Royals and Tampa again, two worst teams. In 2004, it was Kansas City (again), Arizona (horrendous) and Milwaukee, which was actually not the third worst team, but was plenty bad, a 94-loss dud.

And so on. So being that bad over 65 games just about ALWAYS tells you that a team is terrible. Being 18-11 over 29 games, meanwhile, doesn’t tell you much at all.

Poz is simply commenting on the small sample value of winning 18 games in a month of play as an indicator of strength, but I see something else at work here.  As noted in his post, a team that wins fewer than 20 games in a 65 game stretch is an awful team.  But, there are different kinds of awful teams.  And, more to the point, not all awful teams will be awful in year n+1.  A lot will.  Some will not.  And it seems to have little to do with the on-field product in year n, but with the circumstances surrounding those teams.  Let’s take a look at the 2006 Cubs, a team that, like the 2009 Royals, had the talent to win consistently for about a month, but was too flawed to be anything but a last place team.

I remember the 2006 Cubs well.  That was Dusty Baker’s last hurrah, at least with a team with a fighting chance in March.  It was Juan Pierre’s only season with the Cubs, although in my mind, he might as well have always been a Cub.  The 2006 Cubs were as much a “Dusty” team as the Cubs were in any other season, but a lot of the starting lineup was made up of Jim Hendry’s acquisitions, players who were younger than the typical Dusty player.  It remains, to this day, Matt Murton’s career year.  If not for Angel Berroa, Ronny Cedeno would have been the worst regular in baseball that year.  That team ended up playing with Todd Walker at first base for about half the season when Derrick Lee was injured.  Trust me, it was bad.

The rise of the Cubs from the Baker-led mess of the year before went further than having some notable injuries and the outsting of an inconsistently competant manager.  And, maybe to the surprise of many, it didn’t really benefit from the development of it’s young talent.  Offensively, in fact, the first version of the Pinella Cubs barely improved at all over the bunt-em-over, hit-em-in, out machine laden 2006 team.  They scored 40 more runs in 2007, a total that could be attributed to so many small things that it’s not possible to conclusively argue that the offensive talent improved.

Furthermore, the Cubs also made some questionable decisions about their young talent going into their 2007 season.  Matt Murton, going into his age-25 season, had his role decreased.  The team signed Cesar Izturis to play as Ronny Cedeno for a year while Cedeno was sent down to triple A Iowa for seasoning.  The Cubs made a curious choice to rush five-tool prospect Felix Pie up in the middle of the season and give him 200 PAs.  The Cubs didn’t improve because their young talent did anything of note.  They got better, overnight, because they spent money.  They bought Mark DeRosa, Cliff Floyd, and Alfonso Soriano, and all three were productive for the Cubs in 2007, and frankly, probably saved the team the embarrassment of losing production from the Dusty Baker offense that couldn’t score in the first place.  But the biggest, most critical signing, was pitcher Ted Lilly, who filled a huge hole in the Cubs rotation as a 1a-type starter.  Zambrano, Lilly, Hill was a 1,2,3 punch unmatched in the NL-Central, and this came only a year after the Cubs would throw Zambrano, and then pray for rain before going to Hill.

The result of the money spent was a worst-to-first job by the Cubs, a spot where they would stay for another 162-game season.  Only, the next Cubs team actually did get a kick in the pants from it’s young talent, specifically C Giovanny Soto, SS Ryan Theriot, and 2B Mike Fontenot.

By 2008, the Cubs had used their financial resources to completely import an outfield that, by the end of May, had booted it’s last Baker-holdover (Jacque Jones) and consisted of Kosuke Fukudome, Reed Johnson, Jim Edmonds, along with Soriano and DeRosa.  Murton and Pie were blocked, this time for good.  Unwilling to let Rich Hill work through some severe control issues in 5 April starts, the Cubs banished their last young pitching prospect from the rotation, eventually replacing him in a trade for Rich Harden, a 24 year old pitcher who sports the body of a 34 year old.  None of the Cubs prospects from the Hendry era: Cedeno, Pie, Hill, or Murton, made it into Pinella’s third year with the team.  When you have that many prospect failings, for any reason, superior financial resources will only keep you afloat for so long.

Of course, the 2008 Cubs were every bit as good a Cubs team as we’ve seen in the last 100 years.  They didn’t just float to the top of the perennially weak NL Central, the Cubs destroyed the division.  A late season run by the Brewers made the standings look closer than they ever were.  And, I think, the dominance of the Cubs in the 2008 regular season, I think it overshadowed a very unsteady organization.

Relief pitcher performance, in general, tends to be very fickle.  However, the Cubs had produced a much better than average bullpen in three and a half consecutive seasons, heading into the 2009 all-star break.  Whether in first or last, the Cubs had always been able to get batters out late in the game at relatively little cost.  This has proven to be sustainable thus far, however, it also appears to be a fickle principal that the Cubs have grown reliant on.

Still, given all the underlying problems, the Cubs outscored their opponents by 184 runs in 2008, and in 2009, the Cubs are on pace to give up the same number of runs against as they did in 2008 when they were the best team in baseball.  As noted above with the bullpen, they can’t necessarily expect to keep that up, although the fact that the Cubs are a strong defensive team certainly helps.

The culprit has been the offense.  They are averaging over a run per game less than last season.  But, as stated above, this is more or less the team the Hendry-led Cubs have always been.  Last year’s team led the NL in scoring, but in hindsight, involved nearly a perfect storm of career years, as well as excellent depth, and had much less to do with the development of it’s young talent, which has always been this organizations main issue.  Theriot and Fukudome have progressed naturally, Derrick Lee is chipping in his usual 120 OPS+ season, Aramis Ramirez has been hurt for a significant part of the year, but truly, only two players on the Cubs offense have been underachieving: Soto (who is hurt), and Soriano (who may just be in decline).

The Cubs have actually found depth in other places: 1b/3b/c/of Jake Fox tore up triple-A this year before taking his anger out on big league pitchers, while 2b/3b Bobby Scales was a pleasant surprise as well, and the Cubs have gotten use out of the glove of UT Andres Blanco.  None of these players, however, can fix the larger problem.  If Soriano is in fact in decline, if the Cubs don’t get another productive season with their Catcher spot, and if Mike Fontenot’s 2008 season was just a small sample fluke, we’re talking about three black holes in a national league lineup going forward that would have to be fixed, once again, through free agency…which, if you’ll remember got the Cubs into this mess in the first place

And when you look at it from a year-to-year perspective, the Cubs are one of the oldest offenses in the league, with only one starter (Soto) having theoretically his best years ahead of him, and given his decline this year, that isn’t even a foregone conclusion.  Their lone hitting prospect, Josh Vitters, will not be with the major league team in 2010, except in the most optimistic of projections.

What Pinella has brought to the Cubs was consistency in the pitching rotation, which has been excellent for three consecutive seasons under his watch.  Lilly and Zambrano should be a nice one-two punch next year, and Randy Wells is at least a fringe number four starter.  The team will likely need to add a single starting pitcher in the offseason as Harden’s contract is expiring, and he’s giving the team little reason to consider bringing him back.

When the Cubs rose from the ashes of their 2006 season, they did it with strong pitching and a developing defense which has improved behind it’s staff in every season.  The offense, however, has hardly improved at all since the Dusty days, and not for lack of money that has been dumped into it.  It’s two best offensive players (Lee and Ramirez) are the same two players who led them in hitting back in 2006.  The year to year variation in runs appears to be simply a function of relative health, and improvement every year at the shortstop position.

Whether the Cubs’ fall is long or short term is entirely reliant on it’s offense, on 30-something players like Soriano, and Fukudome, and on long-time contributors like Lee and Ramirez.  In my estimation, the true level of the Cubs offense is much closer to what we’re currently seeing than to what they produced like last year, and thanks to a generally unproductive farm system, this is more or less a .500 team with great pitching and below average offense who has played pretty much up to it’s potential every year since Dusty was ousted.

I have long despised the variable of defensive positioning in determining a hitter’s value.  Now, I’m well aware that the average first baseman will outhit the average middle infielder in any given year.   I also realize that you can’t put 5 overweight average hitting first basemen in your everyday lineup every day and expect to win games.  That’s elementary stuff, which, I think misses the point.

My problem with positional baselines have to do with their disregard to the quality of individual defensive play.  Conventional positional baselines adjust the offensive statistics of a defensive whiz such as Cesar Izturis, and a glove-butcher like Michael Young (when he played SS) at the same level.  There’s a large defensive difference between Elvus Andrus and Yuniesky Betancourt, but they are both given the offensive baseline of “shortstop”.

My logic is as follows:  players who post severely below average defensive numbers are likely playing out of position, whether or not their team realizes it.  Adjusting offensive numbers for the fact that their defensive value comes at a premium is pointless if you could be getting the defensive production from anyone on your roster, including the pitchers.

You could do this with any statistic that uses positional baselines, but I’m going to use VORP because it’s easy to understand (offensive runs above replacement level) and it doesn’t factor in any defensive value outside of the position played.  Take the curious case of the Kansas City Royals.  If we ranked their best hitters as rated by VORP, among their positional lines, they look something like this:

• 2nd Baseman Alberto Callaspo – ranked 10th (17.9)
• 3rd Baseman Mark Teahen – ranked 13th (19.5)
• Shortstop Willie Bloomquist – ranked 17th (7.5)
• Catcher Miguel Olivo – ranked 19th (5.9)
• 1st Baseman Billy Butler – ranked 20th (9.2)
• Centerfielder Coco Crisp – (still) ranked 30th (4.3) [out for season]

With the exception of Butler at first base (which I’ll get to in a second), those are all positive contributions from players at premium defensive positions.  The Royals rank 30th in the MLB in VORP because of a lot of sub-replacement performances at SS, but mostly because they are getting penalized for not having productive corner outfielders and DH’s in the system.

By far, those are the positions at which VORP shows the highest amount of variance, and the Royals don’t have a hitter among the top 30 at either outfield spot, nor do they have a DH ranked in the top 16.

VORP’s solution to make the Royals a league average offense–given the list above–is to acquire/develop two or three league-average hitters at non-premium defensive positions.  1) This is an expensive/long-term solution, 2) the Royals are going to look worse than this in VORP at the end of the season, despite likely offensive improvement, and 3) this completely ignores why the Kansas City Royals are a bad baseball team.

The Royals have an organizational logjam at first base.  Billy Butler is the best defender of the bunch, which is damning to all involved.  Mike Jacobs can barely be considered a defensive player at all, he’s arguably out of position at first base, and can’t remotely be considered for any other position.  Kila Kia’ahue is tearing up triple-A for the second consecutive year, but he’s another guy who profiles best as a DH.  Down the road, 19 year old prospect Eric Hosmer figures to be this teams first baseman/power threat, and he might be athletic enough to play a corner outfield spot, but for right now, is strictly a first baseman.

It’s simply not true that any of those players could actually gain value by moving to the corner outfield, however, this is exactly what defensive baselines suggest.  It seems like a simple solution: just slide Alberto Callaspo over to SS, DFA Jose Guillen, move Billy Butler to Right Field, call up Kila to play first base, wham, you have a good baseball team, or at least one that produces more runs above replacement than it currently does.  Uh, not exactly.

The easiest and cheapest way for the Royals to improve is to work on the defense: move players to LESS demanding defensive positions.  You could get better contribution from Alberto Callaspo at third base*, from Willie Bloomquist at second base, from John Buck or Brayan Pena in the outfield or at DH, and from Mark Teahen in the outfield.

*-Of course, there’s a logjam at third base as well.  It’s just a poorly constructed organization.

This is more or less what the (admittedly flawed) Yuniesky Betancourt trade was about.  It allows the Royals to get more value out of their existing players.  The acquisition of Coco Crisp allowed the Royals to get more value out of David DeJesus.  The emergence of Callaspo allowed the Royals to get more value out of Mark Teahen and Willie Bloomquist.  The development of Miguel Olivo and Billy Butler’s defense and power helps out the value of Brayan Pena and Mike Jacobs.

Defensive baselines simply obscure this effect because they see the team moving offensive players with value to positions where their offensive value gets mitigated.  But in reality, the offensive value of the player has not changed.  He’s simply a more valuable defender.

The assumptions made by positional baselines assume that if a team is lacking in production at positions where the baselines affect the production negatively, those positions can be replaced externally.  This is sometimes true, but often, a fallacy.  And it affects the very thing that positional value sets out to measure.